Dolphins reporter Omar Kelly Sun Sentinel: Giants could be willing to deal with teams jockeying to get ahead of Dolphins in draft
“ Most NFL insiders thought Detroit would be the draft’s hot spot at No. 3 for teams that covet Tagovailoa, but word is spreading that Ohio State’s Jeffrey Okudah might be too talented a cornerback for Detroit to pass up after trading away Pro Bowl Darius Slay. So, teams committed to getting ahead of Miami’s No. 5 pick might be able to get a better deal from the New York Giants.
There’s plenty of validity to this theory if you consider the Giants, who drafted quarterback Daniel Jones No. 6 last year, likely will end up selecting the same caliber of player whether they keep the No. 4 pick or move down a couple spots by trading with the Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers (No. 6), Carolina Panthers (No. 7) or Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 9)...
That means it is pick No. 4, which is worth 1,800 trade value points, that should be viewed as the hot spot of the 2020 NFL draft.
If you’re wondering what it would cost the Dolphins to move up from pick No. 5 to pick No. 4, the trade value chart estimates the price is 100 points, which is the equivalent of a compensatory third-round pick (selection 100, which is owned by New England).
Miami’s 2020 third-round pick (No. 70) is worth 240 points, and the Giants’ third-round pick (No. 99) is worth 104 points, so a swap of third rounders could potentially get a deal done for Miami, or the Chargers, which own pick No. 71, which is worth 235 points...
But what can be verified is that the Dolphins are committed to keeping all three of their first-round selections (Nos. 5, 18 and 26) unless they can make a deal for Burrow, which seems unlikely, or a proven established veteran like Washington offensive tackle Trent Williams.
But if the Giants are willing to do business with teams coveting Tagovailoa — and they should be considering a trade down has very little impact on the caliber of player they get — striking a deal might be more feasible for all interested parties.“
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It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.
See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold
Trade chart means nothing in this situation. I can’t imagine the Giants dealing the pick for anything less than an extra 2.
It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.
See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold
This
It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.
See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold
This!
The only reason for a trade-up is to grab a QB which is a premium positional pick and for that reason worth more than the draft chart
When you run a draft simulation, you really get a sense of the interminable void between 36 and 99. Really hope DG fills that gap.
Don't forget the Pats move to acquire Gilmore and how they have played defensively going back to when Patricia was there, feeling that the pass rush can be neutralized more so than a shut down corner.
But this assumes that The top 3 picks are Burrows, Chase, and Okuda. You can trade downa nd still get your OT or Simmons.
If you're the Miami GM and the Giants accept a trade offer like that Miami should say they changed their mind, stay put and draft Tua at 5.
If Detroit goes CB with #3, then I would expect DG's rotary phone to be ringing off the hooks.
Miami would have to offer enough to prevent DG from trading down to SD. He can probably get the same player there, so why not take the bigger trade.
They have three #1s. Pittsburgh’s and Houston’s for Minkah and Tunsil
Can they risk losing Okudah if they love him? They move down to 5, Giants could pick Okudah at 4.
It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.
See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold
To me, it's not only when making a trade to draft a QB, but it's the same reason it was not outrageous that DJ went at #6 last yr (besides the fact he wouldn't have been avail at #17).
You don't compare a franchise QB to any other pos. The points/value thing doesn't apply. As you said, you throw it out the window.
Don't forget the Pats move to acquire Gilmore and how they have played defensively going back to when Patricia was there, feeling that the pass rush can be neutralized more so than a shut down corner.
He Had Revis too
When you're looking at getting your franchise quarterback value charts go out the window. A swap of 3rd rounders? Nowhere near enough.
It would be great if a wild card emerges (like Oakland) or another team just outside the top Ten.
As long as the Giants get a good starting OT I am fine with moving back quite a bit.
The hard part is passing on a player (Simmons/Okudah) for example if the belief they are a perennial pro-bowler. With so many needs they will have to make tough decisions. I tend to go with more good players versus one star.
I couldn’t agree with you more, Acid. I would be very happy with just the third round pick from Miami. The only time I would ask for significantly more is if the Chargers are involved with trading up. You can have them both bid. It would be stupid not to shoot yourself in the foot, when Miami can give a 3rd. The Giants lose nothing trading with Miami. They will still get their guy.
Barkley is understandable as Browns were the only team that would have taken Barkley so if that rumor is true, DG didn’t want to lose his future RB. Fine. This team has too many holes to the point where this team isn’t an Isaiah Simmons away from being a top defense. This team as a whole is a dominant pass rusher, a dominant MLB, a solid FS, 2 tackles and a Center away from being real SB competitors.
You’re offered a 2 to move down 2 spots, great. 36-99 is a massive time to wait. You can afford to wait if it’s 6, 36,38,99 totally can wait. 4 7th round picks, maybe you end up going from 99 to like 90 to get who you want.
Hopefully Detroit loves Okudah and see him as an immediate Slay replacement
That usually improves the value way over what the "trade chart" suggests...especially for QB's. If you like them are you really going to miss out on them for a day 2 pick? I doubt it...
Still, if Miami is hungry, they'll target a team higher than #4.
a team like the panthers who need a corner at #4 could in theory trade up from #7 to get there lock down CB. When you trade back you always risk losing "your guy".
The giants seem to be in between going best defensive player (simmons) or going OT. The issue with going OT is there really much seperating the top 3-4 OT's?
If they really want OT...then you can easily get a good one at #6 or #7...Det can't bank on getting Okudah at that spot.
It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.
See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold
You can throw out "points" anyhow. It isnt 1995.
Its plausible that 3 QBs go in the top 4.
How do they know:
1.) DG wouldn't want Okudah
2.) Some other team wants Okudah and would trade with NYG
neither likely, but certainly possible.
I understand people saying "forget the chart" but the market is what it is. If neither MIA nor LAC offer more than a 2nd, then the pick is worth a 2nd. You sound like homeowners who want 500K for a 200k house.
and if jax want to give us 9th and their 2nd for our 5 th pick in that works too
Trade #70 for FS Harris
draft wirfs at 9
C and ER in 2nd team doesnt look too bad D should be fairly solid
In addition they have a QB that is injury prone and not very mobile.
I just find it interesting that no one talks about offensive line at 3 for them or with a trade down yet says it’s mandatory that the Giants need one at 4. Are the lineman truly not talented enough to warrant a top 4 pick and the Giants are constantly mocked one due to perceived need? I don’t have answer to this question. Just curious people’s thoughts.
It will be interesting because of the limited time between picks if it goes down to draft day.
How many of us ripped the Giants for taking Jones over Allen figuring he Wouid still be there at 17. But the Giants had a conviction and stuck with it.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.
See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold
This.
I understand people saying "forget the chart" but the market is what it is. If neither MIA nor LAC offer more than a 2nd, then the pick is worth a 2nd. You sound like homeowners who want 500K for a 200k house.
Actually, each year the market is different depending on the draft class and the teams and their goals and motivations.
This year, my guess is that the market is more than in previous years, but so much will be determined by how the first 3 picks go, and what Carolina, Jacksonville, and Las Vegas do and how they view their QB situations. All three could also conceivably look to move up, in addition to the Dolphins and Chargers.
18/36 swap plus 56
or
26/36 swap plus 39.
Even if he is the only guy and then a big drop from there they also have to believe we would be willing to take him at 4.
We spent a TON of resources between last couple drafts and this FA on Corner.
If they believe we won't take Okudah its a no brainer to drop to 5. If they have some doubt or if we pose some doubt that might change things.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
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He funny. And doesn't understand how capitalism works. We're going to capitalize on their fear of losing their QB to the Chargers, Panthers or Jags. Fairness isn't a factor in the negotiations. History has proven teams overpay in these situations. Now, I don't want multiple premium picks to move down a slot but a swap of 3rd rounders isn't close to getting it done either.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
If he traded back just for a 3rd DG would get crucified for doing that
If Miami’s third round pick was the best offer, Dave Gettleman should be crucified for not taking it. You get your third round pick and lose nothing, moving down to #5. Yes, we all want more, but it all depends on the other teams getting into a bidding war with Miami.
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In comment 14861810 Torrag said:
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He funny. And doesn't understand how capitalism works. We're going to capitalize on their fear of losing their QB to the Chargers, Panthers or Jags. Fairness isn't a factor in the negotiations. History has proven teams overpay in these situations. Now, I don't want multiple premium picks to move down a slot but a swap of 3rd rounders isn't close to getting it done either.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
If he traded back just for a 3rd DG would get crucified for doing that
If Miami’s third round pick was the best offer, Dave Gettleman should be crucified for not taking it. You get your third round pick and lose nothing, moving down to #5. Yes, we all want more, but it all depends on the other teams getting into a bidding war with Miami.
That would mean that DG did not do a good job of selling that pick and should be criticized for that. and I'm a DG fan
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In comment 14861929 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14861810 Torrag said:
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He funny. And doesn't understand how capitalism works. We're going to capitalize on their fear of losing their QB to the Chargers, Panthers or Jags. Fairness isn't a factor in the negotiations. History has proven teams overpay in these situations. Now, I don't want multiple premium picks to move down a slot but a swap of 3rd rounders isn't close to getting it done either.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
If he traded back just for a 3rd DG would get crucified for doing that
If Miami’s third round pick was the best offer, Dave Gettleman should be crucified for not taking it. You get your third round pick and lose nothing, moving down to #5. Yes, we all want more, but it all depends on the other teams getting into a bidding war with Miami.
That would mean that DG did not do a good job of selling that pick and should be criticized for that. and I'm a DG fan
Let me put it this way. What would you rather have, #4 pick only or the #5 pick and #67 pick? That could get you a Michael Pittman, Jr. or Chase Claypool at #67. You won’t get any of these guys at number #99.
And folks needn’t worry about what others will think of DG. He should go achieve the highest value for Giants. If he does his job well the Giants will improve and so will his status.
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In comment 14861937 DonnieD89 said:
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In comment 14861929 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14861810 Torrag said:
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He funny. And doesn't understand how capitalism works. We're going to capitalize on their fear of losing their QB to the Chargers, Panthers or Jags. Fairness isn't a factor in the negotiations. History has proven teams overpay in these situations. Now, I don't want multiple premium picks to move down a slot but a swap of 3rd rounders isn't close to getting it done either.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
If he traded back just for a 3rd DG would get crucified for doing that
If Miami’s third round pick was the best offer, Dave Gettleman should be crucified for not taking it. You get your third round pick and lose nothing, moving down to #5. Yes, we all want more, but it all depends on the other teams getting into a bidding war with Miami.
That would mean that DG did not do a good job of selling that pick and should be criticized for that. and I'm a DG fan
Let me put it this way. What would you rather have, #4 pick only or the #5 pick and #67 pick? That could get you a Michael Pittman, Jr. or Chase Claypool at #67. You won’t get any of these guys at number #99.
Donnie, I see your point but then the question comes why would Miami even do that? the only reason why they would be offering only a 3rd is that they know no one else wants to trade up with us. If they know that fact why even offer a 3rd since they can stand pat and still get their guy.
There has to be a fear that they are going to miss out on the QB they want. If they have that they know a 3rd won't do it
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I think past trades up for a QB has been around 1.5 times the trade chart, but I would have to double check.
I understand people saying "forget the chart" but the market is what it is. If neither MIA nor LAC offer more than a 2nd, then the pick is worth a 2nd. You sound like homeowners who want 500K for a 200k house.
Actually, each year the market is different depending on the draft class and the teams and their goals and motivations.
This year, my guess is that the market is more than in previous years, but so much will be determined by how the first 3 picks go, and what Carolina, Jacksonville, and Las Vegas do and how they view their QB situations. All three could also conceivably look to move up, in addition to the Dolphins and Chargers.
All we can do is look at historical trades. The Jets gave up 3000 points for 2100 points in value. The Rams gave up 3900 points for 3000 points in value. There is a multiplier for QBs but not what some expect here.
Agreed, but the Giants are not getting 3 second rounders, like the jets gave up, as some propose here.
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A 3rd rounder isn't getting it done.
Agreed, but the Giants are not getting 3 second rounders, like the jets gave up, as some propose here.
I don't see them getting that either but the 3 only I just don't see
Amen. It’s better to get something than nothing. Get the most you can out of it. If Miami starts talking with you, there better be something coming out of it. I expect to have something better than swapping the 3s though.
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In comment 14861810 Torrag said:
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He funny. And doesn't understand how capitalism works. We're going to capitalize on their fear of losing their QB to the Chargers, Panthers or Jags. Fairness isn't a factor in the negotiations. History has proven teams overpay in these situations. Now, I don't want multiple premium picks to move down a slot but a swap of 3rd rounders isn't close to getting it done either.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
If he traded back just for a 3rd DG would get crucified for doing that
If Miami’s third round pick was the best offer, Dave Gettleman should be crucified for not taking it. You get your third round pick and lose nothing, moving down to #5. Yes, we all want more, but it all depends on the other teams getting into a bidding war with Miami.
^This.
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In comment 14861950 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14861937 DonnieD89 said:
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In comment 14861929 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14861810 Torrag said:
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He funny. And doesn't understand how capitalism works. We're going to capitalize on their fear of losing their QB to the Chargers, Panthers or Jags. Fairness isn't a factor in the negotiations. History has proven teams overpay in these situations. Now, I don't want multiple premium picks to move down a slot but a swap of 3rd rounders isn't close to getting it done either.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
If he traded back just for a 3rd DG would get crucified for doing that
If Miami’s third round pick was the best offer, Dave Gettleman should be crucified for not taking it. You get your third round pick and lose nothing, moving down to #5. Yes, we all want more, but it all depends on the other teams getting into a bidding war with Miami.
That would mean that DG did not do a good job of selling that pick and should be criticized for that. and I'm a DG fan
Let me put it this way. What would you rather have, #4 pick only or the #5 pick and #67 pick? That could get you a Michael Pittman, Jr. or Chase Claypool at #67. You won’t get any of these guys at number #99.
Donnie, I see your point but then the question comes why would Miami even do that? the only reason why they would be offering only a 3rd is that they know no one else wants to trade up with us. If they know that fact why even offer a 3rd since they can stand pat and still get their guy.
There has to be a fear that they are going to miss out on the QB they want. If they have that they know a 3rd won't do it
How would Miami know that nobody wants to trade up to #4? They would have to assume that someone does. My concern is that Miami trades with Detroit for Herbert, and then nobody wants to trade up to #4 for Tua or Love, although someone still might for Okudah, Brown, or Simmons.
Kerrigan is older but he's still solid. They started Sweat last year.
Young might be the BPA, but their back seven is absolutely terrible.
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In comment 14861969 DonnieD89 said:
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In comment 14861950 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14861937 DonnieD89 said:
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In comment 14861929 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14861810 Torrag said:
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He funny. And doesn't understand how capitalism works. We're going to capitalize on their fear of losing their QB to the Chargers, Panthers or Jags. Fairness isn't a factor in the negotiations. History has proven teams overpay in these situations. Now, I don't want multiple premium picks to move down a slot but a swap of 3rd rounders isn't close to getting it done either.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
If he traded back just for a 3rd DG would get crucified for doing that
If Miami’s third round pick was the best offer, Dave Gettleman should be crucified for not taking it. You get your third round pick and lose nothing, moving down to #5. Yes, we all want more, but it all depends on the other teams getting into a bidding war with Miami.
That would mean that DG did not do a good job of selling that pick and should be criticized for that. and I'm a DG fan
Let me put it this way. What would you rather have, #4 pick only or the #5 pick and #67 pick? That could get you a Michael Pittman, Jr. or Chase Claypool at #67. You won’t get any of these guys at number #99.
Donnie, I see your point but then the question comes why would Miami even do that? the only reason why they would be offering only a 3rd is that they know no one else wants to trade up with us. If they know that fact why even offer a 3rd since they can stand pat and still get their guy.
There has to be a fear that they are going to miss out on the QB they want. If they have that they know a 3rd won't do it
How would Miami know that nobody wants to trade up to #4? They would have to assume that someone does. My concern is that Miami trades with Detroit for Herbert, and then nobody wants to trade up to #4 for Tua or Love, although someone still might for Okudah, Brown, or Simmons.
Hell, if the Giants said yes to that offer of a 3rd Miami would realize we have no other suiters so why would they do it they can stand pat and still get their guy
DG has to sell Miami that others are serious about their offers. But the minute he agrees to just a 3rd Miami would be idiots to do it. That's basically like showing your hand to everyone on the River card before betting. I mean think about it, let's say Carolina or SD want to move up and they offer a 2nd, that's a lowball also but much better than a 3rd from Miami
Helluva a deal for both teams
Yes, if nothing else is forthcoming and Miami wants to give us a 3rd you take it.
But that is 100% a fantasy scenario that will never happen. Have to keep in mind other teams have smart advisors also and the minute we would accept that those smart advisors will know we have no other players looking to move up
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In comment 14861985 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14861969 DonnieD89 said:
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In comment 14861950 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14861937 DonnieD89 said:
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In comment 14861929 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14861810 Torrag said:
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He funny. And doesn't understand how capitalism works. We're going to capitalize on their fear of losing their QB to the Chargers, Panthers or Jags. Fairness isn't a factor in the negotiations. History has proven teams overpay in these situations. Now, I don't want multiple premium picks to move down a slot but a swap of 3rd rounders isn't close to getting it done either.
Wishful thinking on the author's part.
If he traded back just for a 3rd DG would get crucified for doing that
If Miami’s third round pick was the best offer, Dave Gettleman should be crucified for not taking it. You get your third round pick and lose nothing, moving down to #5. Yes, we all want more, but it all depends on the other teams getting into a bidding war with Miami.
That would mean that DG did not do a good job of selling that pick and should be criticized for that. and I'm a DG fan
Let me put it this way. What would you rather have, #4 pick only or the #5 pick and #67 pick? That could get you a Michael Pittman, Jr. or Chase Claypool at #67. You won’t get any of these guys at number #99.
Donnie, I see your point but then the question comes why would Miami even do that? the only reason why they would be offering only a 3rd is that they know no one else wants to trade up with us. If they know that fact why even offer a 3rd since they can stand pat and still get their guy.
There has to be a fear that they are going to miss out on the QB they want. If they have that they know a 3rd won't do it
How would Miami know that nobody wants to trade up to #4? They would have to assume that someone does. My concern is that Miami trades with Detroit for Herbert, and then nobody wants to trade up to #4 for Tua or Love, although someone still might for Okudah, Brown, or Simmons.
If all they are offering is a 3rd then they really aren't that interested in moving up. If they think other teams are trying to move up that 3rd is a joke of an offer and they would know it would be easily outbid. That's why this scenario is so far-fetched of just getting a 3rd from them to get a franchise QB.
Hell, if the Giants said yes to that offer of a 3rd Miami would realize we have no other suiters so why would they do it they can stand pat and still get their guy
Miami offers a third because they know the Giants may not want to drop further than #5 simply to get additional compensation. DG has never traded down. Since Miami would take a QB, dropping to just #5 means that the Giants won't lose any player they want. If they trade with San Diego, the Chargers will presumably take Herbert or Tua. What if Miami at #5 doesn't want the remaining QB, and takes the player DG wanted, or trades that pick to a team that does? The Giants may not want to incur that risk.
I honestly think we are going to see some action for that 4th pick. I believe we are in a nice position to either Wash and Detroit trading out which lands us Young or Detroit trades out to someone who wants Tua and Jacksonville, Carolina, and San Diego get in a bidding war with us to get Herbert. It gets even better for us if Detroit stands pat and takes either Simmons, Brown, or Okudah assuming Wash stays put and takes Young
I see the Dolphins, Chargers and Raiders as the best bets. If we’re talking a trade down to 12, then I’m all about getting real value because there is likely to be a real talent drop off there.
Tell them to go screw and take your guy.
Tell them to go screw and take your guy.
So we’re taking the same exact player regardless and lighting a top 70 pick on fire out of some imaginary principle in this scenario right?
1. Pick at 4
2. 5 and 70 from Miami
3. 6 and 71 from Chargers
And you know either would take a QB.
Some here are actually saying to just hold tight because it's not a good enough offer? Good thing you're not the GM.
I have been negotiating as part of my job for close to a decade...I know plenty of people better than me but I’m not exactly clueless there. I’m actually trying to argue leverage because I don’t think it’s anywhere near what people on this board are assuming.
And precedent may matter in a contract negotiation but in one of 100+ draft trades among 32 franchises? It doesn’t mean anything.
Ps..... The redskins could take a QB--- I think they should.
If Detroit stays put and takes Okudah (which I think is a legit possibility w/ them trading Slay)...that changes the landscape of the draft entirely for the NYG.
If I'm DG I'm running through scenarios right now of what kinds of offers I would take and weigh them against who's on my board right now at #4.
I would be studying the rosters of Miami/SD/Carolina/LV/Jax at the very least in case they're willing to part with players as part of deal (of course they should be doing this with every NFL team - there's trades in other rds as well).
I think there's going to be teams looking to jump SD and Miami for a QB. The more teams looking to do so - the better. The Giants should be making it sound like there's a bunch of teams calling them inquiring about their pick and using as leverage to drive up the price to get their guys.
It's really the art of negotiation 101 really. I'm not 100% sure this is DG's wheelhouse, unfortunately.
Two variables that could substantially impact draft-day trading that I don't know the answer to, and would love input on, are the following:
1. Does the NFL have a rule against collusion when it comes to draft picks and/or would normal antitrust rules apply? In business, two competitors generally cannot collectively agree to deal/not deal with a supplier or customer without violating the antitrust laws. Can Miami and the LA Chargers, for example, strike a pre-draft deal that neither will trade up and agree between themselves to divvy-up the likely QBs on the board at picks 5 and 6 (presumably with Miami taking Tua and the Chargers taking Herbert)? Such behavior would be flat-out illegal in the business world, and I suspect the same applies here (as Miami and the Chargers are competitors), but the business analogy is not perfect, and the NFL does enjoy some measure of antitrust immunity (which allows for things like salary cap). And of course, if teams could collude in the draft, it would cut both ways - e.g., with both Detroit and the Giants agreeing not to trade down unless the compensation for the trade was worth triple the value as stated in the "traditional" draft value chart.
2. To what extent do teams talk before the draft on hypothetical trades? Seems to me if that happens, then the up-side of the Giants' demand for compensation would be tempered by what compensation Detroit would need in order to move down (even if they love Okudah, everything ultimately has a price). For example, would the Chargers talk potential trade scenarios with both Detroit and the Giants, such that if New York's price is too high relative to what Detroit will take to move down, we lose the trade to Detroit?
Input welcome!
Obviously it would be great to get more but if this is the best (or only) offer we receive - we'd be fools not to take it. We pick up a #3 while at 1.05 we're still getting the guy we would have picked at 1.04. It's highly doubtful Miami's moving up a slot to pick Simmons or an OT.
1. Pick at 4
2. 5 and 70 from Miami
3. 6 and 71 from Chargers
And you know either would take a QB.
Some here are actually saying to just hold tight because it's not a good enough offer? Good thing you're not the GM.
You are correct sir!