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Pick number 4: The new “hotspot” in the draft?

Defenderdawg : 4/7/2020 12:16 pm
Dolphins reporter Omar Kelly Sun Sentinel: Giants could be willing to deal with teams jockeying to get ahead of Dolphins in draft

“ Most NFL insiders thought Detroit would be the draft’s hot spot at No. 3 for teams that covet Tagovailoa, but word is spreading that Ohio State’s Jeffrey Okudah might be too talented a cornerback for Detroit to pass up after trading away Pro Bowl Darius Slay. So, teams committed to getting ahead of Miami’s No. 5 pick might be able to get a better deal from the New York Giants.

There’s plenty of validity to this theory if you consider the Giants, who drafted quarterback Daniel Jones No. 6 last year, likely will end up selecting the same caliber of player whether they keep the No. 4 pick or move down a couple spots by trading with the Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers (No. 6), Carolina Panthers (No. 7) or Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 9)...

That means it is pick No. 4, which is worth 1,800 trade value points, that should be viewed as the hot spot of the 2020 NFL draft.

If you’re wondering what it would cost the Dolphins to move up from pick No. 5 to pick No. 4, the trade value chart estimates the price is 100 points, which is the equivalent of a compensatory third-round pick (selection 100, which is owned by New England).
Miami’s 2020 third-round pick (No. 70) is worth 240 points, and the Giants’ third-round pick (No. 99) is worth 104 points, so a swap of third rounders could potentially get a deal done for Miami, or the Chargers, which own pick No. 71, which is worth 235 points...

But what can be verified is that the Dolphins are committed to keeping all three of their first-round selections (Nos. 5, 18 and 26) unless they can make a deal for Burrow, which seems unlikely, or a proven established veteran like Washington offensive tackle Trent Williams.

But if the Giants are willing to do business with teams coveting Tagovailoa — and they should be considering a trade down has very little impact on the caliber of player they get — striking a deal might be more feasible for all interested parties.“
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Can’t see the Giants waiting from pick 36 to pick 99  
Defenderdawg : 4/7/2020 12:19 pm : link
To draft again...
If Miami wants our pick  
BillT : 4/7/2020 12:24 pm : link
They are going to have to pay a premium to get it. You can bet the Chargers would give at least their 2nd to get to Tua if that's their guy. No "swap of 3rd round" picks. Miami will pretty much have to match whatever the Chargers are offering.
yeah - I would want at least a #2 and #3  
gidiefor : Mod : 4/7/2020 12:24 pm : link
to trade down with Miami or LA -- F that swapping # 3's crap
A 3rd rounder to trade down with Miami??  
LBH15 : 4/7/2020 12:26 pm : link
Reach into those pockets a little more.
Pretty sure  
OC2.0 : 4/7/2020 12:27 pm : link
It’ll take more than just swapping 3’s.
When teams want a QB  
GiantsRage2007 : 4/7/2020 12:27 pm : link
Throw the points out the window.

It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.

See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold
The Lions falling in love with Okudah  
KDavies : 4/7/2020 12:29 pm : link
Is certainly an ideal scenario for the Giants and seems very plausible.

Trade chart means nothing in this situation. I can’t imagine the Giants dealing the pick for anything less than an extra 2.
RE: When teams want a QB  
Saquon'sQuadz : 4/7/2020 12:31 pm : link
In comment 14861596 GiantsRage2007 said:
Quote:
Throw the points out the window.

It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.

See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold


This
I know "trade down!!" is always a common refrain ahead of the draft  
bceagle05 : 4/7/2020 12:34 pm : link
but it does seem necessary this year, if there's any type of market. Are we that desperate for Wirfs at four? Gettleman can't be too stubborn here.
RE: When teams want a QB  
montanagiant : 4/7/2020 12:36 pm : link
In comment 14861596 GiantsRage2007 said:
Quote:
Throw the points out the window.

It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.

See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold

This!

The only reason for a trade-up is to grab a QB which is a premium positional pick and for that reason worth more than the draft chart
RE: Can’t see the Giants waiting from pick 36 to pick 99  
flycatcher : 4/7/2020 12:37 pm : link
In comment 14861585 Defenderdawg said:
Quote:
To draft again...

When you run a draft simulation, you really get a sense of the interminable void between 36 and 99. Really hope DG fills that gap.
I have had Okudah pegged for Detroit  
Chris684 : 4/7/2020 12:37 pm : link
since they traded Slay.

Don't forget the Pats move to acquire Gilmore and how they have played defensively going back to when Patricia was there, feeling that the pass rush can be neutralized more so than a shut down corner.
If Chase is gone  
Tom in DC : 4/7/2020 12:38 pm : link
And you can trade down (not too far), and let QBs go at 4 and 5 then go for it. Even better would be to trade with Miami down to 5, pick up something for free, and save some $ by paying for the 5th spot rather than 4th.

But this assumes that The top 3 picks are Burrows, Chase, and Okuda. You can trade downa nd still get your OT or Simmons.
Having Tua available would be great  
Chip : 4/7/2020 12:39 pm : link
I don't see Detroit not making a trade and then drafting a CB. It comes down to someone trading up for Herbert. Hopefully Jacksonville or the Raiders want him and will be willing to trade. Maybe the Chargers or Miami get nervous and throw in a two or a 3. Two weeks will know.
The Idea That The Giants Would Trade Down..  
Jim in Tampa : 4/7/2020 12:43 pm : link
And not even get an extra pick out of it is stupid.

If you're the Miami GM and the Giants accept a trade offer like that Miami should say they changed their mind, stay put and draft Tua at 5.
Miami  
Professor Falken : 4/7/2020 12:43 pm : link
has two #2's. Theirs and New Orleans. They have the ammo to get it done.
Obvious written by a Miami fan  
ZogZerg : 4/7/2020 12:47 pm : link
But, I hope they are right about Detroit.
If Detroit goes CB with #3, then I would expect DG's rotary phone to be ringing off the hooks.

Miami would have to offer enough to prevent DG from trading down to SD. He can probably get the same player there, so why not take the bigger trade.
Q:If the Lions love Okudah?  
George from PA : 4/7/2020 12:47 pm : link
What stops the Lions tradedown with the Dolphins and still get Okudah at 5
Problem with is is Detroit can trade down and still get Okudah  
BillT : 4/7/2020 12:48 pm : link
He'll certainly be there at either 5 or 6.
RE: Miami  
KDavies : 4/7/2020 12:48 pm : link
In comment 14861624 Professor Falken said:
Quote:
has two #2's. Theirs and New Orleans. They have the ammo to get it done.


They have three #1s. Pittsburgh’s and Houston’s for Minkah and Tunsil
Redskins get on the Simmons train  
JonC : 4/7/2020 12:50 pm : link
Lions pick Okudah, Giants get CY. Make it happen, football Gods.
idk, imo, if miami  
Dave : 4/7/2020 12:51 pm : link
wants #4 for #5 so they can take a qb, whatever they offer is gravy since nyg will get the player they wanted anyway
RE: Problem with is is Detroit can trade down and still get Okudah  
KDavies : 4/7/2020 12:53 pm : link
In comment 14861631 BillT said:
Quote:
He'll certainly be there at either 5 or 6.


Can they risk losing Okudah if they love him? They move down to 5, Giants could pick Okudah at 4.
RE: When teams want a QB  
Dr. D : 4/7/2020 12:57 pm : link
In comment 14861596 GiantsRage2007 said:
Quote:
Throw the points out the window.

It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.

See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold


To me, it's not only when making a trade to draft a QB, but it's the same reason it was not outrageous that DJ went at #6 last yr (besides the fact he wouldn't have been avail at #17).

You don't compare a franchise QB to any other pos. The points/value thing doesn't apply. As you said, you throw it out the window.
Mia is not going to know what the Gs have been offered  
stoneman : 4/7/2020 12:58 pm : link
they would have to guess at a match/beat offer - at least another 2nd or 3rd for the spots ahead of LAC/CAR/JAX, etc. It will all be a guessing game if Det does not trade out. I still think Mia covers Tua with a swap with Det, not Gs. Det would still probably get their man.
This  
AcidTest : 4/7/2020 12:59 pm : link
is why we never trade down. We always ask for too much. I agree that we shouldn't trade third round picks with Miami just to move back one spot, especially since they would likely be moving up for a QB. There is a premium to do that in any draft, but especially in the top 5. But Miami's third round pick is enough. Asking for a #2 and a #3 is unrealistic. I'd want a #2 or a #3 and a #4 from San Diego to move back to #6. I also agree that I can't see DG waiting from pick #36 to #99 to pick again. That would be pretty much the same as last year.
RE: I have had Okudah pegged for Detroit  
Gettledogman : 4/7/2020 1:11 pm : link
In comment 14861609 Chris684 said:
Quote:
since they traded Slay.

Don't forget the Pats move to acquire Gilmore and how they have played defensively going back to when Patricia was there, feeling that the pass rush can be neutralized more so than a shut down corner.


He Had Revis too
I hate the trade value charts  
Biteymax22 : 4/7/2020 1:12 pm : link
I'm on the clock, if you don't give me what you want you don't get my pick. If you don't get my pick you don't get my guy.

When you're looking at getting your franchise quarterback value charts go out the window. A swap of 3rd rounders? Nowhere near enough.
I hope so  
Lines of Scrimmage : 4/7/2020 1:23 pm : link
Of the teams mentioned who might be looking for a QB I would rule out Jacksonville. Good chance Marrone/GM are out after this year.

It would be great if a wild card emerges (like Oakland) or another team just outside the top Ten.

As long as the Giants get a good starting OT I am fine with moving back quite a bit.

The hard part is passing on a player (Simmons/Okudah) for example if the belief they are a perennial pro-bowler. With so many needs they will have to make tough decisions. I tend to go with more good players versus one star.
RE: This  
DonnieD89 : 4/7/2020 1:28 pm : link
In comment 14861657 AcidTest said:
Quote:
is why we never trade down. We always ask for too much. I agree that we shouldn't trade third round picks with Miami just to move back one spot, especially since they would likely be moving up for a QB. There is a premium to do that in any draft, but especially in the top 5. But Miami's third round pick is enough. Asking for a #2 and a #3 is unrealistic. I'd want a #2 or a #3 and a #4 from San Diego to move back to #6. I also agree that I can't see DG waiting from pick #36 to #99 to pick again. That would be pretty much the same as last year.


I couldn’t agree with you more, Acid. I would be very happy with just the third round pick from Miami. The only time I would ask for significantly more is if the Chargers are involved with trading up. You can have them both bid. It would be stupid not to shoot yourself in the foot, when Miami can give a 3rd. The Giants lose nothing trading with Miami. They will still get their guy.
Agree with many here  
UGADawgs7 : 4/7/2020 1:28 pm : link
If Miami wants Tua, and LAC offer the 6 and the 2nd why on earth would DG just do a 3rd round swap? If anything Miami would have to make it 5 and their 3rd. Personally I think the least DG should take is a 3rd. Not a 3rd round swap. Teams trade WAY too much when it is a franchise QB. I don’t have a chart in front of me, but Jets gave up 3 2nds to move up 4 spots? If a miniature bidding war occurs as we all are hoping that Detroit wants to replace Slay, I’m almost certain if LAC, Jax, Miami, Vegas ALL want Tua or even if they all want Herbert depending on medicals, at least one of those teams will offer a 2nd at least to get their QB. If DG pulls this “oh I am taking Simmons, and back off” like the way he decided on Barkley and rumors fly around that Jax offered 9 and 20, or Vegas offered 12 and 19 he needs to go.
Barkley is understandable as Browns were the only team that would have taken Barkley so if that rumor is true, DG didn’t want to lose his future RB. Fine. This team has too many holes to the point where this team isn’t an Isaiah Simmons away from being a top defense. This team as a whole is a dominant pass rusher, a dominant MLB, a solid FS, 2 tackles and a Center away from being real SB competitors.
You’re offered a 2 to move down 2 spots, great. 36-99 is a massive time to wait. You can afford to wait if it’s 6, 36,38,99 totally can wait. 4 7th round picks, maybe you end up going from 99 to like 90 to get who you want.

Hopefully Detroit loves Okudah and see him as an immediate Slay replacement
I don't know....  
Reb8thVA : 4/7/2020 1:30 pm : link
the Lions could use Derek Brown jus as much as Okudah. If Im Detroit and the Dolphins or Chargers make me a good offer, I take it confident that I will most likely get one of the two.
people always refer to the trade value chart...  
mphbullet36 : 4/7/2020 1:36 pm : link
its a fine starting point...but when QB's or can't miss prospects are in play and multiple teams covet them you start with the trade chart and then its whoever wants him more.

That usually improves the value way over what the "trade chart" suggests...especially for QB's. If you like them are you really going to miss out on them for a day 2 pick? I doubt it...
it would be a complete  
ryanmkeane : 4/7/2020 1:36 pm : link
shock if Skins passed on Young. They have a second year QB, decent backup QB, and basically zero pass rushers. That would be incredibly weird, but hey, could happen.
The only reason Miami would move up one spot  
CT Charlie : 4/7/2020 1:43 pm : link
is because they think other QB-hungry teams are going to beat them to a trade. Therefore, Miami would need to make a lucrative offer in a bidding war. That's at least a #2 and a throwaway.

Still, if Miami is hungry, they'll target a team higher than #4.
RE: Problem with is is Detroit can trade down and still get Okudah  
mphbullet36 : 4/7/2020 1:43 pm : link
In comment 14861631 BillT said:
Quote:
He'll certainly be there at either 5 or 6.


a team like the panthers who need a corner at #4 could in theory trade up from #7 to get there lock down CB. When you trade back you always risk losing "your guy".

The giants seem to be in between going best defensive player (simmons) or going OT. The issue with going OT is there really much seperating the top 3-4 OT's?

If they really want OT...then you can easily get a good one at #6 or #7...Det can't bank on getting Okudah at that spot.
RE: When teams want a QB  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 4/7/2020 1:49 pm : link
In comment 14861596 GiantsRage2007 said:
Quote:
Throw the points out the window.

It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.

See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold


You can throw out "points" anyhow. It isnt 1995.
I also think  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 4/7/2020 1:54 pm : link
that Carolina isnt given enough attention as a potential team to trade up.

Its plausible that 3 QBs go in the top 4.
When Talking About Trading Up For QB's  
Bernie : 4/7/2020 1:55 pm : link
value chart goes out the window. Swapping 3rds is home cooking for this beat reporter. I would think Tua would command at least someone's 2nd to move up, but what do I know.
RE: Q:If the Lions love Okudah?  
section125 : 4/7/2020 1:56 pm : link
In comment 14861629 George from PA said:
Quote:
What stops the Lions tradedown with the Dolphins and still get Okudah at 5


How do they know:
1.) DG wouldn't want Okudah
2.) Some other team wants Okudah and would trade with NYG

neither likely, but certainly possible.
on the trade chart  
uther99 : 4/7/2020 2:08 pm : link
I think past trades up for a QB has been around 1.5 times the trade chart, but I would have to double check.

I understand people saying "forget the chart" but the market is what it is. If neither MIA nor LAC offer more than a 2nd, then the pick is worth a 2nd. You sound like homeowners who want 500K for a 200k house.
Would take #70  
Payasdaddy : 4/7/2020 2:15 pm : link
to pick same player we were gonna grab anyway at 9
and if jax want to give us 9th and their 2nd for our 5 th pick in that works too
Trade #70 for FS Harris
draft wirfs at 9
C and ER in 2nd team doesnt look too bad D should be fairly solid
I find it interesting that no one thinks Detroit wants o-line.  
Jarvis : 4/7/2020 2:18 pm : link
Everyone assumes they want Okudah. However they did sign Desmond Trufant at CB. In addition their offensive line played poorly (43 sacks allowed...same as the Giants). I believe they also lost a starter.
In addition they have a QB that is injury prone and not very mobile.

I just find it interesting that no one talks about offensive line at 3 for them or with a trade down yet says it’s mandatory that the Giants need one at 4. Are the lineman truly not talented enough to warrant a top 4 pick and the Giants are constantly mocked one due to perceived need? I don’t have answer to this question. Just curious people’s thoughts.
Miami can obviously be more flexible than others  
LBH15 : 4/7/2020 2:19 pm : link
because they have so many picks. Need some competitive tension for Giants to get them to provide more.

It will be interesting because of the limited time between picks if it goes down to draft day.
Again we don't know how much teams  
Jay in Toronto : 4/7/2020 2:25 pm : link
Love a player - the QBs, Simmons, Okudah heck even Brown.

How many of us ripped the Giants for taking Jones over Allen figuring he Wouid still be there at 17. But the Giants had a conviction and stuck with it.
The chart doesn't matter once teams start bidding.  
Section331 : 4/7/2020 2:43 pm : link
NYJ paid a ton more to move up to get Darnold, and if MIA, LAC and JAX are all coveting that pick, it should bring in a nice haul. As I said in another thread, JAX's 9 & 20 picks would be a good get, and maybe convinces MIA to move 5 & 26.
"a swap of third rounders could potentially get a deal done for Miami"  
Torrag : 4/7/2020 3:00 pm : link
He funny. And doesn't understand how capitalism works. We're going to capitalize on their fear of losing their QB to the Chargers, Panthers or Jags. Fairness isn't a factor in the negotiations. History has proven teams overpay in these situations. Now, I don't want multiple premium picks to move down a slot but a swap of 3rd rounders isn't close to getting it done either.

Wishful thinking on the author's part.
RE: When teams want a QB  
adamg : 4/7/2020 3:27 pm : link
In comment 14861596 GiantsRage2007 said:
Quote:
Throw the points out the window.

It has taken considerably more in recent years to move up.

See Chicago with Trubisky or Jets with Darnold


This.
As others have pointed out  
allstarjim : 4/7/2020 3:46 pm : link
that's really poor and lazy analysis by Kelly here. You pay a premium over the draft chart when moving up for a franchise QB or even a top blue chip guy.
RE: on the trade chart  
allstarjim : 4/7/2020 3:52 pm : link
In comment 14861752 uther99 said:
Quote:
I think past trades up for a QB has been around 1.5 times the trade chart, but I would have to double check.

I understand people saying "forget the chart" but the market is what it is. If neither MIA nor LAC offer more than a 2nd, then the pick is worth a 2nd. You sound like homeowners who want 500K for a 200k house.


Actually, each year the market is different depending on the draft class and the teams and their goals and motivations.

This year, my guess is that the market is more than in previous years, but so much will be determined by how the first 3 picks go, and what Carolina, Jacksonville, and Las Vegas do and how they view their QB situations. All three could also conceivably look to move up, in addition to the Dolphins and Chargers.
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