Entire 1st round mock with commentary (long)

And the first six picks of the 2nd round. This is my evaluation or prediction of how the draft might go. I did not look at the BBI mock draft at all to try to get extra insight. The methodology is a mix of my own evaluation of opinion, while taking into consideration the evals of people I respect, like Sy'56, Daniel Jeremiah, among others. I will acknowledge a couple of things...in the past I have rolled my eyes at mocks with trades in them. However in this year's draft in particular, I just think the trade market is more predictable in terms of buyers and sellers, and so this time I'm going with it. That being said, I do see that the trade I am predicting for the Giants in the first round is perhaps a little less likely than with a couple of other teams that could be a trade partner (LA Chargers in particular, but they aren't the only ones).

Let's get into it, and your commentary and thoughts are welcome.

2020 NFL Draft

*****ROUND 1*****

1. Cincinatti Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

I’ve been saying it for a long time now…the Bengals can’t really afford to trade out of this pick. At some point you have to fix the most important position on your team. The NFL is truly a QB-driven league. There is no better time to fix this position definitively for the long term than this year for the long-suffering Bengals. The only knock on Burrow is the less than ideal 9” hand size. However, the intangibles, leadership, intelligence, and truly insane production makes him the easy pick. And anyone who still doubts, I don’t know how you can argue with 5,671 yards, 60-6 TD-INT, at over 76% passing. Throw in another 368 yards rushing with 5 scores, these kind of numbers simply don’t happen.

Also considered: Nobody

2. Miami Dolphins ***Trade*** (From Washington): Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

I believe the reports that the Dolphins have been trying to get to #1, but Cincinnati simply is too motivated to stay put and get their guy. Not so with the Redskins, who are happy to move out of #2 and snag #5, #18, #70 (3rd round), and a 2021 2nd round pick. The Dolphins get their man, and #108 (4th round) from the ‘Skins. I do believe that Tua’s medicals narrowed the gap between him and Herbert, however, the unique player and leader that Tua is puts him over the top, and Miami couldn’t risk losing him. I think teams do believe that Tua will be ready to play when the season starts. Ryan Fitzpatrick will allow the Dolphins to make sure Tua is fully ready for NFL action before he takes the reins. The big question will be where Josh Rosen lands next, as he’s a potential trade chip to try and get back some of the investment it took to get Tua, or he’s the insurance policy once Fitzpatrick moves on (conceivably after the 2020 season).

Also considered: Nobody

3. Detroit Lions: Chase Young, DE, Ohio State University

The Dolphins move up makes this an easy pick for the Lions, who would’ve also entertained a move down, but can’t pass up on the elite pass-rusher in Young. The superstar pass rusher had 16.5 sacks and 21 TFLs in 14 games for the Buckeyes last season, and this move elevates the Lions’ defense to another level.

Also considered: Jeffrey Okudah, Isaiah Simmons

4. Carolina Panthers ***Trade***(From NY Giants): Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

The Matt Rhule era has begun in Carolina, while the now released Cam Newton and they know they can’t sit at 7 and get a QB. I think Herbert has all the physical traits you want in a QB, and he has enough speed and mobility to get first downs with his legs when plays break down. Herbert definitely has the ability to run Matt Rhule’s and Joe Brady’s offense. This is a good fit, and the Panthers had to get ahead of the Chargers to get Herbert to Charlotte. Herbert’s decision to come back to school for his Senior year was a good one. He led the Ducks to a 12-2 record and a win in the Rose Bowl (as unspectacular a performance as that may have been). He rebounded from a so-so Junior year to post nearly 3,500 yards passing, 32-6 TD-INTs, as a nearly 67% passer. Moreover, he shined in the Senior Bowl and the Combine, to pass the final tests. This is an odd trade partner for DG with his former team, but I believe that both teams will feel that working this deal is in their own best interests. As for the trade details, the Panthers send #7, #38 in the 2nd round, #152 in the 5th round, and a 2021 2nd round pick for the Giants #4, and a 2021 5th rounder. I realize the Panthers just signed Bridgewater to starter money, but he’s an easy cut after two seasons, and he will allow Herbert to come along slowly as well as provide a veteran back up presence if and when Herbert beats him out. Still, I realize this is an unconventional path when the Panthers make a big spend on a QB AND use big resources to move up. I still think Herbert is a really good fit for that Panthers’ team, and that this is an easy pairing for both teams. I have no problem if anyone says this is a totally unrealistic scenario.

Also considered: Nobody

5. Washington Redskins: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

This is the player I believe Washington really covets, and this is something that’s tough for me to write because I’d love to see what Simmons could do on the Giants’ defense, and here he is tormenting us in our division. That said, and revisiting the trade down, I believe the rumors about Washington interest in Tua are complete smoke. I just don’t think Ron Rivera is anxious to get another medically flagged QB after riding the Cam roller coaster. In Simmons, he gets a chess piece to flummox his NFC East rivals, and Rivera does appreciate linebackers.

Also considered: Jeffrey Okudah, Jedrick Wills

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Jedrick Wills Jr, OT, Alabama

The Chargers stayed home needing to really start from scratch, not only saying goodbye to their long-time franchise QB in Phillip Rivers, but also Melvin Gordon, another big piece of their offensive identity. At this point, they need to lay the foundation for the future. The Chargers are likely to be a very bad team next year, and their OL is too much of a mess even with the signing of Bryan Bulaga from Green Bay. At RT is the unspectacular Sam Tevi, and even though Jeffrey Okudah is probably the best player on their board, they are satisfied with the CB room having Chris Harris Jr, Casey Heyward, and Desmond King, so again, they are laying the foundation to help their next franchise QB or veteran signal caller to take over (Cam, Jameis, or a trade for Josh Rosen?).

Also considered: Jeffrey Okudah

7. New York Giants (from Carolina): Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

This pick gives me consternation because this is who I think the Giants would pick in this scenario, but not who I would’ve picked, which would be Andrew Thomas of Georgia. I just feel like this is one of the Giants’ targets, and with Wills and Simmons off the board, both of whom I believe they would and should take before Wirfs, they go with plan ‘C’, the mammoth tackle who they hope can solve their RT issues for years to come. My problem with Wirfs is his change of direction from his slide left and then back to his right. I think it takes just a tick longer for him to get that huge frame shifted quickly, causing him to get beat on counters and stunts to the outside. But the good part is, if the Giants can help him in that part of his game, he has as big a ceiling of any OT in any draft. The Giants simply cannot afford to not address the OL in this spot. Some analysts have projected Wirfs inside at OG, which kind of gives me a little hope that the Giants would go with Thomas, the (IMO) more agile OT that can step in at either side right away, but this just seems like a DG pick.

Also considered: Jeffrey Okudah, Andrew Thomas

8. Arizona Cardinals: Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State University

This is a slam dunk, run-to-the-podium pick for the Cardinals, who can’t believe Okudah fell into their laps here. Okudah is one of the top 3 defensive players in this draft, and would immediately pair with Patrick Peterson to form one of the most dominant CB duos in the NFL…with last year’s prize rookie at #33 overall Byron Murphy to round out a talented trio. This is also Peterson’s last season under contract with the Cardinals, so Okudah could be a long-term replacement if they can’t get PatPete to re-up. I actually think this is a scenario that is more plausible than most probably do, with an expected early run at QBs and OTs likely.

Also considered: Nobody

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ***Trade*** (from Jacksonville): Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

The Bucs just brought in the statuesque GOAT of Tom Brady, and they need to have a plan to protect him. Insert the pro-ready Thomas. I’d like to reiterate that in this scenario, Thomas should be the Giants pick at #7, but I’m trying to project who I think the Giants would actually pick with the chips falling this way, not who I want them to pick. In Thomas, the Buccaneers give Brady a bit of a sigh of relief and perhaps a tick or two longer to get the ball downfield to that incredible duo of Evans and Godwin (unless we see another trade later involving Evans, which I believe to be a possibility). As for this trade, the Bucs send #14, #45 in the 2nd round, and #161 in the 5th round for Jacksonville’s #9 and #116 in the 4th round.

Also considered: Derrick Brown

10. Cleveland Browns: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

Some might be surprised to see Murray so early, but as our own Sy’56 wrote regarding Murray, “I was pretty high on Devin Bush and Devin White last year, both of which had good rookie years. Murray is better.” You can’t get a much higher endorsement for Murray, who Sy also compared to Patrick Willis and Luke Kuechly. The Browns really need a leader in the middle of their defense, and Murray definitively fits the bill.

Also considered: Derrick Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Javon Kinlaw

11. New York Jets: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

The Jets lost Robbie Anderson to the Panthers and brought in Breshad Perriman, but it’s hard to believe that they are set at the position with the 1-yr, $3 million deal that Perriman received, and with the next best WR target being Jamison Crowder. The Jets need to give Sam Darnold a credible threat to make plays and help their young signal-caller if they are ever going to truly know what they have in him. This pairing makes a lot of sense, and Lamb is going to electrify Jets’ fans.

Also considered: Derrick Brown

12. Las Vegas Raiders: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

The slide is over for the Auburn Tiger, who just fits perfectly in Coach Gruden’s and DC Paul Guenther’s 4-3 defense. Brown brings some nastiness and tenacity to a defense that could use that kind of presence in the middle of that defensive line. The Raiders could go in a lot of different directions here, but this was a pretty easy decision with the value and need matching perfectly.

Also considered: Javon Kinlaw, Jerry Jeudy

13. San Francisco 49ers: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

The 49ers have an embarrassment of riches on the defensive side of the ball, but they are a little thin at CB. Henderson meets the grade for this pick and instantly improves the Niner defense even more. Some might believe this to be a bit of a reach, but I don’t. Henderson has everything required to be a shutdown CB in the NFL. The rich get richer.

Also considered: Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Patrick Queen

14. Jacksonville Jaguars: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

This is the kind of player that Jacksonville covets, and he fits very nicely into that defensive front where he can dominate from the 3-tech. With some uncertainty as to the future of Yannick Ngakoue in Jacksonville, this pick gives the Jaguars more teeth up front no matter what happens with the franchise-tagged pass rusher.

Also considered: Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, A.J. Epenesa

15. Denver Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Big-armed Drew Lock can use a deep threat that opposing defenses need to account for. Enter Ruggs, who ran an insane 4.27 40 yard dash at the combine (that led all participants) to go with a 42” vert. Tyreek Hill scored three touchdowns last year on just nine touches. I think Denver might be a little sick of that, and now they have a weapon to fight fire with fire.

Also considered: Grant Delpit, Patrick Queen

16. Atlanta Falcons: A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa

A lot of analysts are mocking an edge rusher to the Falcons, and many of them Epenesa specifically, and I agree. Epenesa is one of my favorite players in this draft. And for the Falcons, he’s the exact opposite of the pass rushers they’ve favored in recent history in Takk McKinley and Vic Beasley, both of who were more ‘beat you with speed’ kind of guy on the Edge, and neither of whom have consistently provided the presence that the Falcons have been looking for when they burned their 1st round picks on them. In Epenesa, they get a big, strong, relentless pass rusher that is going to play bigger and better than his measurables. He’s a lunch pail guy who is going to bring effort and tirelessly work on his craft.

Also considered: Ross Blacklock, Xavier McKinney, Jerry Jeudy

17. Dallas Cowboys: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

This might seem like a curious choice for the Cowboys with Tyron Smith and La’el Collins locked in at the tackle positions, but both can be cut very easily after this season, and Collins’ flexibility allows him to move inside should Becton be able to take over the RT job either in the short or long term. This is a value pick for the Cowboys, who would’ve loved to grab Epenesa here, but getting a player like Becton who can be part of their future at a position they value highly is a plus, and Elliott will love running behind this hulk of a human. I don’t think Becton starts right away, he simply needs too much coaching up, but the upside is there.

Also considered: Jerry Jeudy, Zack Baun

18. Washington Redskins (from Miami via Pittsburgh): Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

The Redskins need help in a lot of areas, so getting an extra pick here in the first round really helps them. If the Redskins have any hope of competing in the NFC East in the future, they are going to have to deal with the likes of Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Miles Sanders. Queen is a perfect fit for the middle of the Redskins’ defense, who will be trotting out 37 year-old Thomas Davis in 2020. While Davis is still productive, Queen can play alongside in the 3-4, and take over next year as the leader.

Also considered: Jerry Jeudy, K’Lavon Chaisson, A.J. Terrell, Kristian Fulton

19. Las Vegas Raiders (via Chicago): Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

It may be hard for some to rationalize Jeudy going this late, but the lack of scarcity for quality WRs hurts him a bit in this draft, as does the scarcity of quality players at other positions. The Raiders are thrilled to get him here, though, after considering him at the 12th pick where they got another great value in Derrick Brown. I was tempted to mock Jordan Love here, I think Gruden wants a hot-shot young QB, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger with Carr and Mariota in house already. Jeudy is a perfect fit here, where there is a dearth of WR talent and explosiveness at the position.

Also considered: Jordan Love, Zack Baun, A.J. Terrell

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (via L.A. Rams): K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU

The Jaguars are going to double-dip here on defensive line after taking Kinlaw at 14. Chaisson might not provide the impact of Ngakoue, but the ceiling is there, and he can form a good pass rushing duo with Josh Allen. This allows the Jaguars flexibility to be able to move on from Ngakoue after 2020, or perhaps getting value for him in a trade, as well as giving them bookend, cost-controlled edge rushers for the immediate future.

Also considered: A.J. Terrell, Kristian Fulton

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

Value and need match-up here perfectly for the Eagles. This team needs to move on from Alshon Jeffery, and they are just old at the position when it comes to the starters. Jefferson is a good match to be the primary receiving option after Ertz.

Also considered: Grant Delpit

22. Minnesota Vikings (via Buffalo): Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State

Gross-Matos fits the profile for what Minnesota is looking for at DE across from Danielle Hunter. Gross-Matos has the size, length, and technique to make an immediate impact for the Vikings, and they need to get better at this position.

Also considered: Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, A.J. Terrell, Kristian Fulton

23. New England Patriots: Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU

I know Jordan Love is being mocked here quite a bit, and he’s still on the board. But I just don’t see Lil’ Bill doing it here. But who knows with him, right? There’s a chance a team can jump up to this spot to get ahead of the Saints for Love, and I’m sure Belichick will relish the chance to add picks. However, in Blacklock, he’s getting a tenacious defender with an explosive first step and active hands. I just think Belichick gets bigger and tougher on the line here, and perhaps looks for a QB later.

Also considered: Jordan Love, Austin Jackson, Trevon Diggs

24. New Orleans Saints: Grant Delpit, S, LSU

I think Delpit stays in Louisiana here where he slides right into that SS spot for New Orleans. They can certainly use an impact defender in the middle of the field, and Delpit is that.

Also considered: Neville Gallimore, Kristian Fulton

25. Minnesota Vikings: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

The Vikings were considering a CB at 22, so it makes sense to get one here. Fulton is a good corner with adequate length and should excel in Mike Zimmer’s zone concepts.

Also considered: Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, A.J. Terrell, Zack Baun

26. Miami Dolphins (via Houston): Austin Jackson, OT, USC

The Dolphins need help everywhere, but getting a starter on the line to protect the new franchise signal caller in Tua is an imperative.

Also considered: Xavier McKinney

27. Los Angeles Chargers ***TRADE*** (From Seattle): Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

Once the Chargers lost out on Tua, they were looking for the right spot to trade back in the first to get their plan B, and they get it with Jordan Love. To move up, the Chargers send Seattle #37 in the 2nd round and #112 in the 4th round, and a 2021 2nd round pick. The Chargers get back Seattle’s #144 in the 4th round to complete the swap. The Chargers make this move to avoid a surprise from a team like the Packers taking their guy, and to get the 5th year option on their new QB.

Also considered: Nobody

28. Baltimore Ravens: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

The Ravens add to their defense with a value pick here in McKinney, who will pair well with Earl Thomas to form a versatile and aggressive duo on the back-end.

Also considered: Zack Baun, Marlon Davidson, D’Andre Swift

29. Tennessee Titans: Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan

This is a pick that will inspire a lot of groans from Giants’ fans, but a pick that makes a lot of sense for the Titans, who can easily cut starter Ben Jones for minimal cost after this year, and who is getting a little long in the tooth. Behind Jones isn’t much, and Ruiz fits what the Titans want to do on offense, which is punch people in the face with Derrick Henry.

Also considered: Zack Baun, Neville Gallimore

30. Green Bay Packers: D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

Considering the season that Aaron Jones just had, this may seem like a strange fit. But Jones is at his best when he’s sharing the workload, and he’s only under contract through next season. Swift is an incredibly dynamic RB that can further lessen the offensive burden for Aaron Rodgers, and it feels like stealing getting a player of this caliber this late for the Packers.

Also considered: Denzel Mims, Tee Higgins, Josh Jones

31. San Francisco 49ers: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

Higgins is the ideal complement to Deebo Samuel and a great downfield threat for Jimmy Garoppolo.

Also considered: Neville Gallimore, Denzel Mims

32. Kansas City Chiefs: A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson

The Chiefs add a piece to their defense because while things came together for them on defense last year, they had their bumps, and this position group in particular is lacking talent.

Also considered: Neville Gallimore, Zack Baun, Jonathan Taylor

Bonus – the next six picks:

*****ROUND 2*****

33. Cincinatti Bengals: Josh Jones, OT, Houston

There does seem to be a drop-off after Jones at this position, and I’m sure the Bengals would like to upgrade the RT position where Bobby Hart is now penciled in as the starter. I’m sure their new franchise QB would appreciate it as well. I tried to find a spot for Jones in the 1st round, because I do think there is going to be a significant run on OT, however, with the other available talent it was tough to do. The Bengals are happy to help solidify their OL here.

34. Indianapolis Colts (via Washington): Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

When you get Phillip Rivers to be your starter, you probably want to have a strong running game. Taylor can score from anywhere on the field, he has an NFL-ready body, the size to run through tackles and the speed to take it the distance once he does. Marlon Mack hasn’t been consistent at the RB position, and this pick gives the Colts a primary option that will remind Rivers of a more explosive Melvin Gordon.

35. Detroit Lions: Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma

The Lions were thrilled to add pass-rushing phenom Chase Young at the top of the 1st round, and now add more talent to the defensive line in the form of Gallimore, who will look really good playing 3-tech next to NT Danny Shelton inside.

36. New York Giants: Loyd Cushenberry, C, LSU

The Giants just can’t afford to wait around at this critical position of need. I’m sure they would’ve rather had Ruiz, but Cushenberry gives them an excellent fall back that will help solidify the offensive line.

37. Seattle Seahawks (from Chargers): Marlon Davidson, EDGE/DT, Auburn

Last year’s big defensive end picked in the first round didn’t earn many reps on the field over the course of the 2019 season. The Seahawks need to have competency up front, and Davidson will push L.J. Collier to start.

38. New York Giants (from Carolina): Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

Mims easily could’ve gone in the first round with his length and ball skills. Mims blew up the combine and might go before some bigger names from elite programs like Justin Jefferson of LSU and Tee Higgins of Clemson. The Giants get a tall wideout who can fly and get vertical…4.38 40 yard dash and a 38.5” vert. And if that’s not enough, he led all combine participants with the fastest 3-cone drill at 6.66 seconds. Mims will give Jones a guy who can win more 50-50 balls downfield and more team speed on offense.