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Why is a consensus so important at the top of the draft?

Klaatu : 4/8/2020 8:44 am
Posters who do not favor drafting an OT at #4 often cite the fact that among the draft-guru set there's no consensus about which OT is the best one. However, they never explain why that matters. We're not talking about amending the Constitution, where a consensus is a built-in imperative. We're picking football players.

Sure, a consensus on any draft pick should be reached by each individual team's decision-makers after input from scouts and coaches, with BPA, plus team needs, plus positional value factored into the discussion. But from the pundit class? Who cares?

This is not to disparage any single draft analyst. Most of them have my respect, and I value their insights and opinions (some more than others, some I dismiss out of hand), but if I'm a GM, I'm not asking for a show of hands from the myriad of outside observers with varying degrees of expertise and acuity before making my decisions.

Make your case against drafting an OT at #4 all you want. Just don't use "consensus" among the punditry (or a lack thereof) to make it. It's irrelevant, and should have no bearing on any decision made by the Giants or any other team.
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Why Consensus Matters  
Jim in Tampa : 4/8/2020 9:30 am : link
When a team has the 4th overall pick in the draft then they obviously want to pick a player who stands head and shoulders above all the other players at his position.

Few question that the top defensive prospects in this draft (Young, Simmons, Okudah and Brown) are the consensus picks at their positions. Cream rises to the top.

But if scouts and talent evaluators can't seem to agree on which of the top four OTs is the consensus pick that tells me that none of the OTs are worthy of being the 4th pick in the draft.

If none of the OTs appear to be talented enough to rise above the other OTs, like the top 4 defenders have...why force the pick just because of need?
Jim  
JonC : 4/8/2020 9:32 am : link
+1
it doesn't matter  
UConn4523 : 4/8/2020 9:32 am : link
in a draft with 4 really go OT's people are mad that there isn't a consensus so that must mean non of them are top end - makes no sense. Why can't it be that 2 or 3 of the 4 are top end? Or all 4?

Who caaaaayyyyyyeeeesssss.
as the years go by  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 9:33 am : link
it becomes clear that the media "draft gurus" or what have you, typically don't really know what they are talking about. Every single draft, the "consensus" always appears to be wrong, gurus come out laughing at picks that end up being good, and they immediately laud picks that end up sucking.

I tend to stick to 1 or 2 people and their individual rankings or thoughts on the position groups..that's about it.
Jim  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 9:35 am : link
but the reality is that Young, Okudah, Brown, and Simmons, probably 1 of them (maybe 2) is likely to bust and not come near the projection that they were supposed to be.

So, consensus is great, but I think conviction on a single player is more important. Last year, the "consensus" was that Daniel Jones was barely a 1st round draft pick. Well, NYG took him at 6 overall.
Only  
mdthedream : 4/8/2020 9:37 am : link
thing I care about is if we can get the same player at 6 and trade back than we should do it. Other than that I am good.
RE: Why Consensus Matters  
LBH15 : 4/8/2020 9:38 am : link
In comment 14862423 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
When a team has the 4th overall pick in the draft then they obviously want to pick a player who stands head and shoulders above all the other players at his position.

Few question that the top defensive prospects in this draft (Young, Simmons, Okudah and Brown) are the consensus picks at their positions. Cream rises to the top.

But if scouts and talent evaluators can't seem to agree on which of the top four OTs is the consensus pick that tells me that none of the OTs are worthy of being the 4th pick in the draft.

If none of the OTs appear to be talented enough to rise above the other OTs, like the top 4 defenders have...why force the pick just because of need?


Good post. Although DG and the other 31 GMs may have an OT worthy of being a top pick. And hell, they may all even have the same guy whether they need one or not.
It is so frustrating to me  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 9:39 am : link
when folks think someone was "overdrafted" ....based on what exactly? The other players who are "supposed to be" better NFL players?

The draft is mostly a crapshoot. Dexter Lawrence looks like he is on a different level than Quinnen Williams is already, and before that draft, Williams was the 'can't miss/consensus top player' guy.

Apple and Flowers weren't consensus top 10 picks  
WillieYoung : 4/8/2020 9:39 am : link
enough said
There is no "consensus"  
Brandon Walsh : 4/8/2020 9:41 am : link
because none of the OT's are worth the number 4 pick of any draft with limited upside to be an elite left tackle.

If you take a player number 4 - he should have the ability to become absolutely elite at their position.

If they truly want to maximize the value of an elite resource like the number 4 pick- they either have to take a defensive player or trade down and accumulate more assets to where one of THESE tackles are worth the value
Brandon  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 9:53 am : link
how do you know that any of these OL are not worth the 4th pick?
RE: There is no  
UConn4523 : 4/8/2020 9:54 am : link
In comment 14862445 Brandon Walsh said:
Quote:
because none of the OT's are worth the number 4 pick of any draft with limited upside to be an elite left tackle.

If you take a player number 4 - he should have the ability to become absolutely elite at their position.

If they truly want to maximize the value of an elite resource like the number 4 pick- they either have to take a defensive player or trade down and accumulate more assets to where one of THESE tackles are worth the value


That's nothing more than your opinion. Why can't there be a top LT? Because you say so?

And its fine if you don't think there are but definitively stating it with absolutely zero context or reason makes for a fairly empty argument.
Jim is spot on  
Dave on the UWS : 4/8/2020 9:57 am : link
and no kidding, any player can bust. But logically, the top rated player at a position has the "best" chance at being successful. Now if they trade down a few spots and Young, Simmons and Okudah are gone, then picking the OT you think is best makes sense. I trust Garrett, and Columbo to have strong enough voices in the room to make the right decisions on OL. I'm quite sure they know what they need.
RE: Why Consensus Matters  
Klaatu : 4/8/2020 9:59 am : link
In comment 14862423 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
When a team has the 4th overall pick in the draft then they obviously want to pick a player who stands head and shoulders above all the other players at his position.

Few question that the top defensive prospects in this draft (Young, Simmons, Okudah and Brown) are the consensus picks at their positions. Cream rises to the top.

But if scouts and talent evaluators can't seem to agree on which of the top four OTs is the consensus pick that tells me that none of the OTs are worthy of being the 4th pick in the draft.

If none of the OTs appear to be talented enough to rise above the other OTs, like the top 4 defenders have...why force the pick just because of need?


BPA should not exist in a vacuum. Positional value should always be taken into account (which is why I maintain that drafting Barkley at #2 was a mistake, while drafting Daniel Jones at #6 was not). A judicious allocation of resources in a capped league should also factor into your decisions (which is why I would oppose drafting Brown or Okudah). In addition, when premium draft capital has already been invested - right or wrong - in a RB and a QB, a similar investment of premium draft capital should necessarily follow to protect those earlier investments. That didn't happen in 2019, and I'd rather not repeat that mistake in 2020.

Regardless, only the opinions of each individual team's scouts and evaluators should matter. What Drew Boylhart thinks, or Colin and Pigskin Paul, or Walter, or Solak, or Kollmann, or Dave-Te, or McGinn, or me, or you, and, yes, even our own Sy'56 or whomever, shouldn't matter at all, not to the Giants or any other team, which was the point of my OP.
RE: RE: Regardless of where they take the OL I give my (worthless) proxy to  
Rjanyg : 4/8/2020 10:01 am : link
In comment 14862405 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 14862373 Spider56 said:


Quote:


Jason Garrett ... no one in the organization knows OL talent better than he does.



The Cowboys OL consists of first rounders in Smith, Frederick, and Martin; a 2nd rounder in Williams, and Collins, a first round talent that fell due to character concerns. The Cowboys have invested heavily in the OL.

Gettleman actually had an excellent record of drafting OL later in the draft and as undrafted FA in Carolina. Norwell was an undrafted FA I believe. Trai Turner was a 3rd. Darryl Williams was a 4th. That is one of the things I was most looking forward to with him coming to the Giants, but we haven’t seen it yet.

Hopefully between Gettleman, Judge, Garrett, and Columbo, we get the OL turned around quickly


Excellent post. So the questions remain:

1. Who do the Giants think the best tackle is?
2. Can this tackle be had with a small trade back
3. If we go with defense in round 1, does NYG think there are viable OT in round 2
4. Do the Giants like an OC in round 2 that would help the line as much as an OT would?
BPA and positional value are givens  
JonC : 4/8/2020 10:04 am : link
it's what the tier/row system on a draft board are designed to lay out in advance.
from the OP  
fkap : 4/8/2020 10:09 am : link
"Sure, a consensus on any draft pick should be reached by each individual team's decision-makers after input from scouts and coaches, with BPA, plus team needs, plus positional value factored into the discussion. But from the pundit class? Who cares?"

Within the team conviction matters. Outside opinions should only matter to the extent that if they differ dramatically from the team evaluation, the team should double check to see why.

Outside the team, it just give people something to use as ammo to bolster their opinion. Shouldn't matter much to the team.

if we listened to the draft  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 10:13 am : link
experts we would probably have Josh Rosen at QB. I mean hell, I love Sy but he thought Rosen was close to a sure thing. All the experts get it wrong a few times every year.
Klaatu  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 10:14 am : link
I'm with you on this. You can't bang your head against the wall for BPA every single year if all you are drafting is CB and DT
RE: Apple and Flowers weren't consensus top 10 picks  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 4/8/2020 10:24 am : link
In comment 14862443 WillieYoung said:
Quote:
enough said

Definitely a I'm fucking smarter than everyone else pick, as was Daniel Jones.

Josh Allen last year was a consensus pick, and Hakeem Nicks. Donald and Martin were the dual "consensus" bbi picks, don't think anyone would have had a meltdown if either were selected.
I probably seem like  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 10:26 am : link
I'm beating the horse to a pulp. But it just cannot be possible that we don't view OL as good value year over year over year. Because...other teams draft OL, and they end up being very good players.

So while I completely understand you never want to "reach" - just because we missed on Ereck Flowers, does not mean we shouldn't pick a guy *3 or 4 slots earlier* than he probably should be taken.

It's great to say "wow, great job DG you held firm! we got great value! He's definitely worth the 4th pick!" and then we are doing the same thing in 2021 when we say "gee...eh..none of these OL really hit the mark." And around and around we go. Conviction/pro bowl upside/character/ability to be elite with great coaching/work ethic/background/winner. That should be what we consider with our early 1st round pick. It should not be, well, this guy aint worth 4, but damn I'd be happy with him at 8
...  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 10:27 am : link
Eli Apple was a top 15 player by all accounts. Flowers was also considered to be around the top 20. Again, these weren't incredible reaches by any stretch. They just ended up being shitty football players. There's a difference.
It's not that consensus is important  
Tim in VA : 4/8/2020 10:27 am : link
It's that consensus (or lack thereof) is itself informative. Using your example of OL, no clear consensus across 4 OL demonstrates a near equality among those 4 players. This impacts our draft strategy.
RE: Bill  
BillT : 4/8/2020 10:32 am : link
In comment 14862412 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Well, I would hope the pundits are talking to the actual professionals doing the evaluations to check their own (the pundits’) views and work. If they’re not checking with the pros, I totally agree with Klaatu that pundit consensus doesn’t matter.

But note that many mock drafts for day 1 are actually pretty good forecasts. We fans like to rag on the mistakes they make, but there are a lot of sound predictions, which suggests that the pundits are getting feedback from the professionals.

Fair enough cosmicj. But the experience from our draft last year is still pretty much in my mind. Just what was the "consensus" on Daniel Jones again? Just how bad was it? And Simmons may be a great player but he also a "combine fast riser" based on his workout. The hype for him is very loud. Look at who the hype is on the OL. Becton. Why? Another "combine fast riser". I'm a bit leery.
RE: It's not that consensus is important  
BillT : 4/8/2020 10:34 am : link
In comment 14862558 Tim in VA said:
Quote:
It's that consensus (or lack thereof) is itself informative. Using your example of OL, no clear consensus across 4 OL demonstrates a near equality among those 4 players. This impacts our draft strategy.

Or it could indicate that the pundits can't evaluate OL talent to save their lives. I doubt that's true in the draft rooms across the NFL.
Or put it this way  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 4/8/2020 10:37 am : link
has there ever been a consensus bbi pick that didn't work out? I can't recall.
OL is absolutely more difficult for the "analysts"  
LBH15 : 4/8/2020 10:40 am : link
to analyze. And probably even moreso to value within a mock draft of other positions.
this years OT crop may not have a clear #1  
PatersonPlank : 4/8/2020 10:44 am : link
but I consistently see 4 in the top 15 and usually 2 in the top 10-12. Yes when we pick an OT it will not be the "consensus" OT pick, but it won't be a reach either
RE: Or put it this way  
PatersonPlank : 4/8/2020 10:45 am : link
In comment 14862582 Coach Red Beaulieu said:
Quote:
has there ever been a consensus bbi pick that didn't work out? I can't recall.


Never, not that I can remember - LOL
Except the 'consensus' we have now  
BigBlueCane : 4/8/2020 10:54 am : link
is because defensive players are easier to grade by traditional evaluations. the defenses haven't changed much to cope with the Spread offense.


Simmons, OTOH is the bellwether for how the college defenses are starting to adjust and BBI can see for itself how the greybeards dislike him or discount his ability.

That's why ppl should stop paying attention to them in near future b/c CFB is going one way and they won't adjust.

RE: Except the 'consensus' we have now  
Klaatu : 4/8/2020 11:04 am : link
In comment 14862625 BigBlueCane said:
Quote:
is because defensive players are easier to grade by traditional evaluations. the defenses haven't changed much to cope with the Spread offense.

Simmons, OTOH is the bellwether for how the college defenses are starting to adjust and BBI can see for itself how the greybeards dislike him or discount his ability.

That's why ppl should stop paying attention to them in near future b/c CFB is going one way and they won't adjust.


First of all, you're making a false assumption about those of us who prefer an OT over Simmons (or any defender). I can't speak for everyone of course, but personally I've never disparaged Simmons, in fact I've conceded that he's worth the #4 pick and would make our defense better, but that I'd still draft Jedrick Wills for reasons I've stated in numerous posts.

Second, that wasn't the point of my OP, which was to dismiss the varying opinions of the punditry with regard to a consensus-best OT as a valid reason for not drafting one at #4.

Third, I've got your "greybeard" right here, hangin', Junior.
RE: The serious answer is that agreement on a topic by experts  
ron mexico : 4/8/2020 11:09 am : link
In comment 14862382 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Strengthens the probability that the talent evaluation is mostly correct.

The cynical answer is that it’s harder to be fired for a mistake everyone else is making, too.


Good post
RE: There is no  
Gatorade Dunk : 4/8/2020 11:23 am : link
In comment 14862445 Brandon Walsh said:
Quote:
because none of the OT's are worth the number 4 pick of any draft with limited upside to be an elite left tackle.

If you take a player number 4 - he should have the ability to become absolutely elite at their position.

If they truly want to maximize the value of an elite resource like the number 4 pick- they either have to take a defensive player or trade down and accumulate more assets to where one of THESE tackles are worth the value

Consensus and elite are different words; they are not synonyms.

Who was the consensus top LB in the 1996 NFL draft? Kevin Hardy, who was picked #2 overall.

Three other LBs were taken in the 1st round that year: John Mobley, Reggie Brown, and Ray Lewis.

So there were four 1st round picks at that position and there was a clear cut consensus top prospect. Three of the four were named all-pros at some point in their career, and one of the four was a complete bust. Which one wound up being elite?
RE: RE: Bill  
Gatorade Dunk : 4/8/2020 11:26 am : link
In comment 14862572 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 14862412 cosmicj said:


Quote:


Well, I would hope the pundits are talking to the actual professionals doing the evaluations to check their own (the pundits’) views and work. If they’re not checking with the pros, I totally agree with Klaatu that pundit consensus doesn’t matter.

But note that many mock drafts for day 1 are actually pretty good forecasts. We fans like to rag on the mistakes they make, but there are a lot of sound predictions, which suggests that the pundits are getting feedback from the professionals.


Fair enough cosmicj. But the experience from our draft last year is still pretty much in my mind. Just what was the "consensus" on Daniel Jones again? Just how bad was it? And Simmons may be a great player but he also a "combine fast riser" based on his workout. The hype for him is very loud. Look at who the hype is on the OL. Becton. Why? Another "combine fast riser". I'm a bit leery.

Simmons is not a "combine fast riser" - he has been in the conversation as a top-5 prospect since well before the combine, based on his actual play on the field.

I prefer an OT at #4, but to act like Simmons is just a workout warrior is inaccurate.
There's usually  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 11:36 am : link
a "consensus" the key is figuring out which one is probably going to bust, or not reach their potential. Which is practically impossible to know, which is why this shit is hard! Taking a high floor player with good character and the possibility of being elite with good coaching is where I'd go at #4. That seems to be Simmons, Wirfs or Wills, but I'm not beating the drum for it for anyone.
Klaatu  
BigBlueCane : 4/8/2020 11:41 am : link
I've said since the draft started the two guys I had pegged the Giants being interested in, were Simmons and Becton b/c both fit what the Giants wanted.

Now it appears that Becton has a back issue and that's allegedly let Wirfs jump him as the top OL prospect. That's fine.

I would vastly prefer they take Becton but at this point in time I don't see them passing on Simmons for Wirfs or any other OL unless something changes.
Consensus is not important  
Mike from Ohio : 4/8/2020 11:41 am : link
I think you misunderstand what those posters are trying to say. The absence of consensus is taken as an indicator that there is no "top" prospect, meaning the experts see holes with each of them. What that means is that there could be a higher likelihood that each one busts.

When there is consensus on a guy like Chase Young, for non-experts (everyone on this site not named Sy) you feel better when everyone sees a future star. When it is fairly easy to find experts that look at the OT prospects and say "I wouldn't take this guy at the top of the first" you start to wonder if any of them are worth that pick.

Will all of the top tackles end up being busts? Probably not. But taking an OT at the top of the draft just because you need one and they are there isn't a good strategy. Taking one at the top of the draft because you have a conviction on him is a different story.

I am not pro or against an OT at #4. I have no idea which of these guys would be good or bad. If the Giants take one I will trust they are convinced the guy is good. If they don't? I will be convinced they didn't and be ok with that.
RE: RE: RE: Bill  
BillT : 4/8/2020 11:44 am : link
In comment 14862673 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14862572 BillT said:


Quote:


In comment 14862412 cosmicj said:


Quote:





Simmons is not a "combine fast riser" - he has been in the conversation as a top-5 prospect since well before the combine, based on his actual play on the field.

I prefer an OT at #4, but to act like Simmons is just a workout warrior is inaccurate.


Ok, that's fair. I didn't mean to imply he wasn't a top prospect he certainly is. Just that the hype around him is combine hype. Just think that the consensus stuff isn't as critical as some might think and given our experience with the (wrong) consensus on Jones. It's something I'm not overly concerned with.
Mike, good post  
JonC : 4/8/2020 11:45 am : link
.
All it takes is for the Giants  
MeadowlandsMike : 4/8/2020 11:58 am : link
To have a very high grade on 1 of the 4 OTs for them to make the pick there. The fact that there are 4 guys who all could vie for a top 5 pick actually strengthens the likelihood the Giants have a top 5 grade on at least 1 of them.
RE: Why Consensus Matters  
WillVAB : 4/8/2020 12:03 pm : link
In comment 14862423 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
When a team has the 4th overall pick in the draft then they obviously want to pick a player who stands head and shoulders above all the other players at his position.

Few question that the top defensive prospects in this draft (Young, Simmons, Okudah and Brown) are the consensus picks at their positions. Cream rises to the top.

But if scouts and talent evaluators can't seem to agree on which of the top four OTs is the consensus pick that tells me that none of the OTs are worthy of being the 4th pick in the draft.

If none of the OTs appear to be talented enough to rise above the other OTs, like the top 4 defenders have...why force the pick just because of need?


You aren’t getting your information from “scouts and talent evaluators.” You’re getting it from the media.

And even if there was some bible that recorded all of the opinions of all of the scouts/evaluators of every player, you’d rarely find a consensus.

Then even if you did find a consensus on a subset of players, there would be plenty that busted with high expectations and plenty that exceeded with low expectations.

So how does a consensus have any value? The only consensus that matters is that everyone in the Giants org is on board with whomever they pick.
I think it's actually  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 12:12 pm : link
the perfect scenario if OT makes the grade. Immediate starter at RT, and then a possible takeover for Solder in 2021. There's also the scenario that the OT we draft is just an awesome RT and he stays there.

That would mean we still need LT if Solder isn't working out. Something tells me Solder is in line for an improved season, with a fresh coaching staff and renewed sense of OL philosophy, but that's probably being really optimistic.
if the  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 12:14 pm : link
"consensus" among NYG brass is that one of these OTs is a plug and play RT and projects well to the left side, then the pick is pretty much a no brainer to me. If they don't project well to LT, I'd probably still take the pro bowl upside at RT.
I haven't seen posters pound the table to take an OT  
LBH15 : 4/8/2020 12:17 pm : link
just because they need one.

Yet that critique keeps coming.
RE: I haven't seen posters pound the table to take an OT  
Mike from Ohio : 4/8/2020 12:35 pm : link
In comment 14862760 LBH15 said:
Quote:
just because they need one.

Yet that critique keeps coming.


I have seen multiple posts that argue not taking an OT is "ignoring the team's most glaring problem" or "kicking the can down the road." Mostly that is because they have a conviction that at least one of these guys, if not more, will be studs. That is their own opinion and they are certainly entitled to it.

There just seem to be several posters who think not coming out of the first round with an OT is a fireable offense, which it absolutely isn't.
RE: RE: Regardless of where they take the OL I give my (worthless) proxy to  
Peppers : 4/8/2020 12:43 pm : link
In comment 14862405 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 14862373 Spider56 said:


Quote:


Jason Garrett ... no one in the organization knows OL talent better than he does.


The Cowboys OL consists of first rounders in Smith, Frederick, and Martin; a 2nd rounder in Williams, and Collins, a first round talent that fell due to character concerns. The Cowboys have invested heavily in the OL.


Yea, Garrett benefited from Will McClay and Stephen Jones. Those two made an assertive effort at improving the offensive line.
Mike  
ryanmkeane : 4/8/2020 12:44 pm : link
my opinion is that there are 3 OTs worth taking in the top 10. And, they are especially *more* worth taking considering our lack of talent at both OT spots, and our new philosophy under Judge and Garrett, which is going to be grind the shit out of teams and get back to the basics of Giant football.

That's why I like OT with our first pick. Would be ecstatic with Wirfs or Wills, and I'd be cautiously optimistic about Becton or Thomas if we trade down. But I'm also someone who thinks if there's conviction on a guy, just take him and move along.

I would not like OT with our pick if the talent wasn't there. It is.
Consensus is a fairy tale  
Torrag : 4/8/2020 1:09 pm : link
One team, one grade, one pick, one player. Rinse repeat.

The Giants aren't canvassing the media leading up to the Draft or when they're on the clock.

RE: RE: I haven't seen posters pound the table to take an OT  
LBH15 : 4/8/2020 1:23 pm : link
In comment 14862775 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In comment 14862760 LBH15 said:


Quote:


just because they need one.

Yet that critique keeps coming.



I have seen multiple posts that argue not taking an OT is "ignoring the team's most glaring problem" or "kicking the can down the road." Mostly that is because they have a conviction that at least one of these guys, if not more, will be studs. That is their own opinion and they are certainly entitled to it.

There just seem to be several posters who think not coming out of the first round with an OT is a fireable offense, which it absolutely isn't.


If those posters opinions are "at least one of these guys if not more will be studs", then they are not saying pick one just because the Giants need one. They are saying they are really good.

Not coming out of the first round with an OT is certainly not a fireable offense. However, not improving the Oline enough for the team to be successful is. It's likely a certainty, especially for a GM that has promised to do so publicly.

I think that it’s flawed thinking to say that because none of the OTs  
yatqb : 4/8/2020 3:19 pm : link
have become the consensus number one that it makes all of them unworthy of the 4th pick. There happen to be years where a particular position has a lot of greatness and where beauty is dependent upon the style of play of your team and a need that might be unique to your roster.

What if three of these guys have long careers where they are pro bowlers on different occasions? Would it have been wrong to have taken any of the three, even if different teams had rated them differently going into the draft? Of course not. The only wrong decision would have been picking the fourth guy. DG just has to get it right if he picks an OT, just like with any other pick.
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