First post! Interesting concepts to ponder

Hey everybody! I’ve been a regular BBI visitor for over a decade now and it’s been an invaluable source of news and information. Thank you to Eric and everyone else on here for making this place such a great resource.

Over the last year I feel like I’ve learned more about football, the draft, team building, etc. than in the preceding 5-10 years combined. I wanted to share some of the stuff I’ve been reading and thinking about and see where you all come down on these issues/ideas. Just a heads up, I’m a big analytics guy. Statistics was my favorite subject in graduate school. Anyway, sorry if the post is a bit longer than usual. Here you go:

1) Defense is fragile – Offense is anti-fragile
http://pff.com/news/nfl-how-fragile-is-defense-a-look-ateffect-of-stars-versus-depth-on-game-outcomes
While this article is partially behind a paywall, you can still ascertain the core concept. Spoiler alert, the finding was that defense is “fragile” (more depth dependent).
Small changes (even on the lower rungs of the defense) affect the wellbeing of the entire defense because the offense has the power to identify and exploit the corresponding weaknesses.
Offense dictates where they want to attack. If someone gets injured or if the offense is lacking a playmaker at a given position, they can alter their game plan to mitigate that issue and emphasize their strengths. However, even if you have two star corners and a premier pass rusher, a bad slot corner or weak linebacker unit can result in the offense picking you apart by attacking those weaknesses. Therefore, you should focus on building depth on defense so that your weakest link is never too weak. On the other hand, you should focus on acquiring playmakers and matchup problems on offense.

2) Nickel defense should be seen as the universal NFL base defense
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-defensive-personnel-analysis
I know this one gets talked about semi-frequently, but I honestly hadn’t realized just how often teams are in sub packages. Teams are, on average, in Nickel or Dime defenses almost 75% of the time (at least as of 2018). This makes me question what the rationale is for having Williams, Lawrence, and Tomlinson. Is Tomlinson going to be traded? Do they plan on letting him walk after this year? I for one would love to see Williams traded, but I think the likelihood of that is slim. Full disclosure, Tomlinson is one of my favorites. He’s a great dude and a solid, dependable player. Plus he’ll likely cost a lot less to retain than Williams.

3) Yes, the draft is a crapshoot, but not for the reasons you may think
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/
This was such a fascinating read when I first stumbled upon it. My favorite takeaway was that as expertise increases in a marketplace, the role of chance also increases.
’Paradox of Skill,’ a counterintuitive theory that states that as the aggregate skill level of a market’s participants increases, the proportion of outcomes attributable to luck also increases. Put another way, the smaller the variation in skill between competitors, the more opportunity for randomness to be a differentiating factor. By this reading, NFL general managers are the victims of their own obsessive pre-draft preparations — their skill level has increased so much that only the effects of chance remain.
If I was a GM, once I got my franchise QB (and I’d spend/trade WHATEVER it takes to get him), I’d try to trade down as often as possible each year to maintain a healthy stock of draft capital and increase my chances of hitting on picks. NFL teams/GMs are overconfident in their evaluations and, as a result, they tend to overvalue early picks (because of a perceived higher degree of certainty) and undervalue mid-to-late round picks.

4) Coverage players are more important than pass rushers
http://pff.com/news/pro-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush
This one I’m still being convinced of, but I can see the argument. Pass rush is essential. You MUST put pressure on the QB. That being said I believe that a pass rush can be schemed through a blitz heavy approach (I’ve always preferred blitz happy d-coordinators), whereas quality coverage is harder to simply scheme. That being said, the article finds that coverage is less stable year to year than pass rush, making investment in the secondary a bit more risky than investing in edge rushers.

5) Offense makes you competitive – Defense gets you over the hump
I don’t fully subscribe to the “defense wins championships” phrase anymore. I believe if you’re a building team, addressing the offense is the thing that brings you to playoff competition. After a productive offense is in place, building a capable defense is the thing that gets you over the proverbial hump. Building a defense should not be the first priority. Also, in keeping with the findings in point 1 and 4, when the defense is being built, the focus should be on depth and versatility to match up with a variety of scenarios and mitigate the defenses fragility rather than feeling like you need to acquire elite individual players.

6) Get your top 10 salaries as close to 60% as possible without going over
http://sbnation.com/2018/3/15/17114596/nfl-free-agency-2018-salary-cap-formula-winning-teams
This is a strange one. Obviously, simply spending money doesn’t lead to success. However, while it’s not causal, it does seem to be a predictive measure of success to an extent. Just something interesting to ponder when it comes to cap management.


Thanks for reading. Hope everyone has a merry Draftmas! I am personally hoping for a trade down followed by a Jedrick Wills selection. Go Big Blue!