The Eagles have proposed a rule that would give teams an alternative option to the onside kick. Instead of trying to recover an onside kick, teams would have the option of attempting to convert a fourth-and-15 play from their own 25-yard line. If they get the 15 yards, they get a first down and keep possession of the ball. If they don't get the 15 yards, the other team would take over possession from wherever the play ended.
For the rule to pass, 24 of the NFL's 32 owners would have to vote on it at their next meeting, which will be held virtually on May 28. |
15 seems too easy. Maybe 20/25.
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I think the conversion rate would be less than 20%. Maybe closer to 15%, which seems about right to me.
Hard for me to find a reason to be against this. Will make more games exciting, and this play will be a hell of a lot more entertaining than an onside kick. I'd be willing to wager that the amount of teams to successfully convert this play, and then go on to win a game, would be extremely rare.
This was also my first thought. No additional power for refs to turn the game please. They already turn too many games.
This. Getting 15+ yards on one down seems like a much higher percentage play than recovering an onside. I don't mind the idea, but the distance needs to be reconsidered.
With this onside kick method, you would basically have an opportunity for a 75 yard hail mary to try and get a TD.
You wouldn't have to worry about an onsides kick to try a hail mary, you would basically get a free shot at it.
Of course you would need a QB who could chuck it 75+ yards...
Eliminated automatic first down on defensive penalties (just the yardage)
And started from the 25 instead of 35
I’d be for it.
With this onside kick method, you would basically have an opportunity for a 75 yard hail mary to try and get a TD.
You wouldn't have to worry about an onsides kick to try a hail mary, you would basically get a free shot at it.
Of course you would need a QB who could chuck it 75+ yards...
Why wouldn't you be able to score a td off it? And of course you're right, in a scenario with very very little time left, this would be a slam dunk choice over an onsides kick.
Figure out a way to make an onside kick safer; maybe fewer guys on LOS for each team. Only WRs and DBs on the LOS.
It has a much better chance when it's unexpected.
I love this new option, but feel like it's been out there a while and that the Eagles didn't think of this on their own.
I am all for this proposal. I think onside kicks should still be allowed (to keep the surprise element involved), but I think it improves the game to give teams the chance to get the ball back by converting a tough, risky, offensive play.
As to the concern of automatic first down penatlies-- is it really a significant issue?
What's the general conversion rate for 4th and 15? or 4th and 10+ yards to go? I'm sure it's still low. And those rates would include any success based on automatic first down penalties. And if the majority of those conversions are due to penalties, then the league can address that.
If it is too high a success rate, then make the penalties just the yards and a replay of the down.
You want to change something? Put in the sky judge to get pass interference calls and other down field penalties correct.
13-17, 299 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int.
It's going to turn into basketball where only the last 5 minutes matters
13-17, 299 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int.
It's going to turn into basketball where only the last 5 minutes matters
I mean they’d be in FG range if they started from the 25
Though honestly I hate the whole idea, nothing wrong with the insides kick to make this change.
Is there a site that has this information? how often are automatic first down penalties called on 4th and long?
More drama, more excitement, less dangerous than a full kickoff runback, slightly more contact than a successful onside kick. If the kicker doesn't get the ball in the right area, it's similar to a normal kick off and too far, potentially too short and ineligible for the kicking team to recover, and a failed free kick still gives the opposing team great field advantage for their follow up possession.
They'd shoot for a very high kicked ball going around 25 to 30 yards total distance and then it's basically a free scramble between both teams on what will essentially be a jump-ball (if the kick is executed well), but if it's batted down or not caught cleanly, it's a live ball fumble recovery. This type of play would lead to the winning team starting roughly around midfield on most attempts.
Here’s the chart on 4th and success rate
So 4th ~17 is equivalent
NFL football operations - ( New Window )
Why does it need to be increments of 5 yards?
I think some here don't realize that with the NFL rule changes, onside kick chances has followed the path of the dinosaur.
Might as well add a dopey shootout like soccer and HQ, and let luck win the game.
NFL said they did it to reduce injuries
before it was changed I don't recall ever seeing anyone get injured during onside kick
NFL said they did it to reduce injuries
before it was changed I don't recall ever seeing anyone get injured during onside kick
I think it has more to do with the head injuries. You’re likely not going to notice those on your television but they are trying to eliminate the violent collisions running full speed that occur during onside kicks
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I never got the outside kick rule change
NFL said they did it to reduce injuries
before it was changed I don't recall ever seeing anyone get injured during onside kick
I think it has more to do with the head injuries. You’re likely not going to notice those on your television but they are trying to eliminate the violent collisions running full speed that occur during onside kicks
But are they running full speed, given the rather narrow gap between players?
Here’s the chart on 4th and success rate
So 4th ~17 is equivalent
NFL football operations - ( New Window )
Thanks for posting these. This is what I was looking for (and I'm curious if 3rd and long has different outcomes from 4th and long).
I think this chart should alleviate concerns about automatic first down penalties.
It doesn't have exact numbers here, but based on these charts, on 3rd/4th downs with 15+ yards to go, that first downs because of penalties happened something like 2-4% of times. Even if you factor in defensive penalties that merely added yards and replayed the down, it's only another 1-2% of plays. If anything, it looks like more penalties in these situations are called on the offense.
The new onside rules have made it much harder to convert which I think is a bad outcome. I understand why they did it, but I'd like to see there be more of an incentive for teams to be aggressive and so I like think option.
If you put restrictions on it, whats from stopping a defensive back from mugging a WR who beats them off the LOS?
If you recover an on side kick, dont you get the ball at the around the 40? So they are basing the starting point off that. Obviously, if a team gets a gain of 25 they are starting with better field position than the kick. Defenses will probably rush 3 and then have 6 sit a little in front of the marker and a couple to take away the deep ball
Onside kick is a Hail Mary and should have an extremely low success rate. You've been outplayed all game and are in a desperate position. The success/failure rate should reflect that.
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Is the starting the play from the 25. So if they convert, they essentially get to start their possession past the 40 yard line. Getting to keep the ball AND starting in ridiculously good field position seems a bit overkill, no?
If you recover an on side kick, dont you get the ball at the around the 40? So they are basing the starting point off that. Obviously, if a team gets a gain of 25 they are starting with better field position than the kick. Defenses will probably rush 3 and then have 6 sit a little in front of the marker and a couple to take away the deep ball
The chances of recovering an onside kick is much smaller than completing a 15 yard pass. The data posted earlier is from before they changed the onside kick. Even with the old onside kick rules the chances of getting 15 was much easier. So ultimately, teams will get better field position after having to run a higher percentage play. With this proposed system, a team basically has to make two plays to be in FG range. The first play, then one additional decent play. Too easy in my book.
Or is that just a punch drunk fan s perception from watching a team accumulate the worst record in the NFL over that time frame, much of that losing because this defense never seem to be able to get off the field.
Might as well add a dopey shootout like soccer and HQ, and let luck win the game.
2pt conversion well predates Goddell. I also like that extra points are missed more and the OT rule so that OT isn't basically decided by the coin toss
Until the D improves, this rule would kill the Giants. All a team has to do is throw it to a TE over the middle -- cause that's ALWAYS open.