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Would you be satisfied if Saquon has LeSean McCoy's career?

HitSquad : 6/26/2020 7:19 pm

- Play 11 years (relatively healthy)
- Rush for over 11,000 yards
- Receive for about 3,800 yards
- Score about 90 TDs rushing and receiving
- Be named All-Pro twice and make the All-Decade Team

I don't know...I get a weird feeling that this level of production from him would still fall short of expectations both in the media and the fan-base. He's one of those guys where his talent says it's HOF or bust.
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I would hope  
santacruzom : 6/26/2020 8:03 pm : link
His career would be on par with Marshal Faulk's or Tomlinson's careers. But McCoy in his prime was one of the best RBs in football... nothing to be ashamed of if he plays as well as McCoy did.
Interesting question  
mpinmaine : 6/26/2020 8:18 pm : link
I root like hell for SB but that means nothing..
This is why I hate this question. I want him to be the best ever...he won't be.
RE: As usual  
eric2425ny : 6/26/2020 8:50 pm : link
In comment 14925340 djm said:
Quote:
It’s all about context. Stats are bullshit. How much winning did we do with Barkley is the better question.


This is very true. Barry Sanders is arguably the best RB of all time, but how many playoff games did he appear in? It’s great to have amazing players, but it’s still a team game.
barry sanders and walter payton  
hassan : 6/26/2020 9:34 pm : link
are the case why backs should not be measured by wins only. they don’t impact win outcomes like qbs. great ones like them carried poor teams into playoffs with notable exception of 85 and a great bears team.

Saquon needs to have blow it out stats and team needs to contend at very least. Like sanders and paytonanything less is not acceptable at his pick. it’s got to be better than mccoy or he eats way too much cap space and it’s not a good pick.

Even if the yardage is 12-1400 yards a year vs 16-1800, average per touch need to be high, first downs should be numerous along with tds. and pass catch yardage should be high.
Are you counting his SB with KC  
theold5j : 6/26/2020 9:48 pm : link
From last year....if so then yes
Would you be satisfied if Saquon has LeSean McCoy's career?  
Spider43 : 6/26/2020 10:02 pm : link
Way more than I'm expecting.
Reggie Bush..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 6/26/2020 11:35 pm : link
wasn't haunted by his draft status. He couldn't stay healthy and missed parts of every season but 1 in a 10 year career.

If Barkley had McCoy's career I would be completely disappointed  
PatersonPlank : 6/26/2020 11:43 pm : link
McCoy was a 2nd rd pick not #2 in the draft. Plus Barkley, IMO, has a lot more potential.
RE: If Barkley had McCoy's career I would be completely disappointed  
Mad Mike : 6/26/2020 11:51 pm : link
In comment 14925445 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
McCoy was a 2nd rd pick not #2 in the draft. Plus Barkley, IMO, has a lot more potential.

Does that mean you'll be happy if he matches George Rogers' career?
RE: RE: If Barkley had McCoy's career I would be completely disappointed  
PatersonPlank : 6/27/2020 12:05 am : link
In comment 14925450 Mad Mike said:
Quote:
In comment 14925445 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


McCoy was a 2nd rd pick not #2 in the draft. Plus Barkley, IMO, has a lot more potential.


Does that mean you'll be happy if he matches George Rogers' career?


Not sure how you got there, no of course not. Barkley was a #2 pick for us and had a great first year. I expect great things, not George Rogers things. The OP didn't compare Barkley to Rogers and either did I
Throwing another wrinkle in.  
Beezer : 6/27/2020 12:20 am : link
If he had McCoy’s numbers PLUS one Super Bowl MVP?

I’d say yes.

And a side question. If Barkley had the exact same numbers as McCoy, and those numbers don’t get McCoy into the Hall of Fame, would Barkley get into the Hall of Fame with those exact numbers plus the Super Bowl MVP?
No. He has to be  
David B. : 6/27/2020 12:48 am : link
Marshall Faulk or LaDainian Tomlinson to justify 2nd overall.
Nope. McCoy had maybe 3 great years and several very good years  
sb from NYT Forum : 6/27/2020 1:40 am : link
...but fair or not when you take a RB at #2 overall you want him to be a game-changing, transcendent player. I don't see McCoy as that type of player.

Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, LaDanian Tomlinson. Those are the comparables.
Hell  
BlueLou'sBack : 6/27/2020 3:22 am : link
no.
Nope....I want Super Bowls!  
George from PA : 6/27/2020 5:34 am : link
I give 2 craps about yardage, etc...

Win the big game...I will be happy
He would not be a bust  
Lines of Scrimmage : 6/27/2020 6:59 am : link
with LM's career imo.

I tend to focus on his performance coinciding with Daniel Jones rookie contract. If the Giants make deep runs over the next 3-4 years Barkley will most likely will have been a huge part of it. That is what I am looking for.

For all we know the Giants may go a different direction and he is not even here for his whole career.
1000 yard per season career average. No.  
BillT : 6/27/2020 7:03 am : link
He's averaged 1150 over his first two and that's with missing games and playing hurt. Hope he plays 11 years but that's not enough yards.
No  
ShocktoBeck : 6/27/2020 7:54 am : link
He has Barry Sanders level talent, that’s the type of production he needs to produce. It’s a very high bar but everything is relative in life and His talent level is what he would be measured against. Why would we compare him to a RB with a respectable career but one this league saw dozens of?

As a side note, not all yards are made equal just hashing total number of yards doesnt tell the story.
11 years  
LBH15 : 6/27/2020 8:15 am : link
sounds good right now.

The stats will be what they will be.
Definitely not  
BrianLeonard23 : 6/27/2020 9:11 am : link
But I was so against the pick in the first place, he literally needs to be one of the five or ten best at the position ever to justify it, especially given where we were/have been as a franchise for a long time.

He’s fun to watch. He’s an amazingly gifted player. By all accounts he’s a good, humble guy. But none of that matters on Sundays when the giants are losing 10+ games year in year out.

I don’t want to stir up the hornets nest of that draft by any means. Saquaon is a special player. Who is on a team so bad that he had a game against the Jets where he had -1 rushing yard.
If I'm speaking honestly, yes I would be disappointed.  
Jim in Forest Hills : 6/27/2020 11:11 am : link
McCoy is a very good back. But what we've seen from Saquon is different. He is on a different level, more like a Barry Sanders or Walter Payton. Health not being an issue, I see him surpassing LM on every level.
Short Answer  
lax counsel : 6/27/2020 12:20 pm : link
No. His baseline should be Marshall Faulk for a longer period of time in order to justify his draft position accounting for the state of the franchise at that time (i.e., a team that clearly should have been rebuilding who made a move to make another run). If he can stay healthy - which should be expected not a pleasant surprise - than I think he can have that type of career.

To me the far more important piece all of this is DJ. If he’s a legitimate elite qb, Barkley’s stats and winning will look much better.
No  
ZogZerg : 6/27/2020 12:35 pm : link
That would be a huge bust, especially after his rookie year.
good thread  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 6/27/2020 1:56 pm : link
6 Pro Bowls, 2x All-Pro, ~15k yards from scrimmage, 89 TDs

That's pretty damn good. I think some people here are underrating McCoy. He had a great peak where he was arguably the 2nd best RB in the game besides Peterson, his longevity was very good, and you could tell from his running style that he was not a RB who was created by his O-Line.

Besides Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers, there aren't too many RBs in NFL history who were as shifty as McCoy in his prime. His cuts on a dime were absolutely filthy, he was probably the best "juke you out of your cleats in a phone booth" type RB since Sanders. That's why there were a lot of people actually comparing Barkley to McCoy when he was at PSU, because Barkley has that same type of style (plus 30 lbs).

McCoy's not a HOFer, but he's in the tier below that. Very successful career, especially since he got a ring in KC to round out his resume.

All that being said, I'd still be disappointed if Barkley ended up only as good as LeSean McCoy. In terms of prospect hype, Barkley was the RB version of Calvin Johnson and I was hoping for similar positional dominance when he was drafted. The flashes of brilliance we saw in his rookie year confirmed he had all-time potential. He clearly has the talent to be a Faulk/Tomlinson/Peterson type of legend, and that's why we took him at #2.

The safe play would be taking McCoy's career due to the guaranteed health/longevity. And while I'd be disappointed with that kind of career, he'd still be a very good RB. But the potential ceiling of Barkley is just too tantalizing and we've seen him do things on a field that defy gravity and physics, that's not even hyperbole I've literally never seen anyone who maintained balance mid-air when hurdling the way he does.

I'd roll the dice and hope Barkley becomes a true Legend of the sport instead of just "very good". Anything less than that would mean he didn't reach his potential, which would be disappointing not just for Giants fans but for the NFL as a whole.
...  
christian : 6/27/2020 2:49 pm : link
The improbability baked into these expectations is a little funny.

There are exactly three running backs ahead of McCoy on the all time rushing yards lost who aren’t or won’t be in the Hall of Fame — Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, and Corey Dillon. If Corey Dillon wasn’t a sleaze bag he’d be in as well.

The most common factor among the top 25 rushers of all time — all but one played 10 or more seasons. The only exception is Jim Brown, arguably the greatest running back of all time.

Expecting Barkley to play 10 NFL seasons is a statistical anomaly. He very likely will not, and that’s OK. Expecting him to be in the top 25 in rush yards, top 30 requires him having an abnormally long career.

So essentially the expectation is he be a) a sure fire Hall of Famer and B) he have an abnormally long career.

Okie dokie.
Draft position counts...  
trueblueinpw : 6/27/2020 4:24 pm : link
Agree with above that Barks is gonna be like Reggie Bush and just always fall short of expectations for the number 2 overall pick.

Looking at Shady’s career he has a few amazing years and some pretty quite years including his first and last two season. Overall he’s a terrific back and a great pick at 53 overall and a fantastic NFL career.

Took a look back at stats for Sanders and Sweetness, which are two backs that I think a lot of people expect Barks to measure up against. What jumped out at me was that both BS and WP played every game on the schedule. I that regard Barks is already a bit of a disappointment. Hey, guys get hurt in pro football but durability and availability go a long way toward Canton.
That just isn’t true  
UConn4523 : 6/27/2020 4:32 pm : link
Bush had a few good years (best being in Detroit the team that didn’t draft him) but none of his years were as good as Barkley rookie year. Barkley’s injured 2nd year was basically as good as Bush’s most productive season.

So no, he won’t be though of like Bush,

McCoy was pretty dominant for a while but I’d tKe Barkley’s rookie year over either of McCoys best 2 seasons. To answer the OP I’d be disappointed if Barkley duplicates McCoys career only because he’s already better then peak McCoy and it would mean he regressed or got hurt.
Im of of the George in PA s CV hool of thought  
Sneakers O'toole : 6/27/2020 4:35 pm : link
If he is a major contributor to winning football, I couldn't care less about cumulative stats.
school of thought  
Sneakers O'toole : 6/27/2020 4:36 pm : link
.
George From PA  
Sneakers O'toole : 6/27/2020 4:37 pm : link
I need an editor
To be clearer  
trueblueinpw : 6/27/2020 5:32 pm : link
Not saying Barks is gonna have Bush stats. Just that the 2 overall for a RB is gonna be dogged by really high expectations.
Not  
Phil in LA : 6/27/2020 5:58 pm : link
remotely.
Any #2 overall pick has high expectations  
UConn4523 : 6/27/2020 6:49 pm : link
BBI likes to magnify everything
RE: ...  
FStubbs : 6/27/2020 6:53 pm : link
In comment 14925605 christian said:
Quote:
The improbability baked into these expectations is a little funny.

There are exactly three running backs ahead of McCoy on the all time rushing yards lost who aren’t or won’t be in the Hall of Fame — Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, and Corey Dillon. If Corey Dillon wasn’t a sleaze bag he’d be in as well.

The most common factor among the top 25 rushers of all time — all but one played 10 or more seasons. The only exception is Jim Brown, arguably the greatest running back of all time.

Expecting Barkley to play 10 NFL seasons is a statistical anomaly. He very likely will not, and that’s OK. Expecting him to be in the top 25 in rush yards, top 30 requires him having an abnormally long career.

So essentially the expectation is he be a) a sure fire Hall of Famer and B) he have an abnormally long career.

Okie dokie.


Your post is absolutely correct. The odds are definitely against Barkley duplicating even McCoy's numbers - especially given the dumpster fire offensive line he runs behind.

This is why drafting a RB #2 overall is a mistake.
RE: That just isn’t true  
ron mexico : 6/27/2020 7:04 pm : link
In comment 14925621 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
Bush had a few good years (best being in Detroit the team that didn’t draft him) but none of his years were as good as Barkley rookie year. Barkley’s injured 2nd year was basically as good as Bush’s most productive season.

So no, he won’t be though of like Bush,

McCoy was pretty dominant for a while but I’d tKe Barkley’s rookie year over either of McCoys best 2 seasons. To answer the OP I’d be disappointed if Barkley duplicates McCoys career only because he’s already better then peak McCoy and it would mean he regressed or got hurt.


I think we should get comfortable with the fact that his rookie year may be his most productive stat wise. I definitely wouldn’t expect many years with significantly better stats.
His rookie year was phenomenal  
UConn4523 : 6/27/2020 7:10 pm : link
eclipsing that would be ridiculously tough anyway so I can’t say I expect him to but he should post similar numbers barring injury. That said McCaffery got better year 3 so who knows.

He’s going to do his part, time for everyone else to up their games too.
Exactly- his rookie year was crazy  
ron mexico : 6/27/2020 7:29 pm : link
Any year by him that gets close to those levels is plenty of production.
...  
christian : 6/27/2020 7:35 pm : link
McCoy had an 8 year prime stretch where his average season was:

14.5 GMs | 1181 RYDs | 384 RecYDs | 10 TDs

During that stretch he was a 5 time Pro Bowler and 2 time All Pro.

Barkley is very likely to get extended this offseason, and the contract will likely keep him under team control through his 8th NFL season.

If Barkley averages out with that type of production, that’s a great return on the investment for the 2nd pick.
A few things  
Matt M. : 6/27/2020 9:17 pm : link
First, if he had those numbers, he would by no stretch be a bust. That is a very productive career. The bust word gets thrown around too easily here.

That said, no I would not be satisfied with those numbers. IF he is healthy, I expect in excess of 14,000 rushing yards and 5000 receiving yards and over 100 TDs.
For RBs picked in the last 20 years  
jestersdead : 6/27/2020 9:53 pm : link
If he has a career path similar to Tomlinson, AP, Elliott and McCaffery then he was the right pick. Lets just hope its not along the lines of Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson.

I'd settle for the Edgerrin James years in Indy
...  
christian : 6/27/2020 10:51 pm : link
He’s going into year 3 of his career and has rushed for 2310 yards, caught 1159 yards, and 23 TDs. 14K, 5K, 100 is pretty far fetched in my view, I don’t think anyone has actually done it.

If he were to play 9 more seasons, and equal McCoy, his average season from this year through age 31 would need to be.

1298 RYDs | 427 RecYDs | 9TDs — he’d basically need to be at or near All Pro level for another 9 years.
RE: ...  
lax counsel : 6/27/2020 11:05 pm : link
In comment 14925661 christian said:
Quote:
McCoy had an 8 year prime stretch where his average season was:

14.5 GMs | 1181 RYDs | 384 RecYDs | 10 TDs

During that stretch he was a 5 time Pro Bowler and 2 time All Pro.

Barkley is very likely to get extended this offseason, and the contract will likely keep him under team control through his 8th NFL season.

If Barkley averages out with that type of production, that’s a great return on the investment for the 2nd pick.


Okay, but no, Not even close. You have to consider both the draft position and the state of the team at the time of the draft. This wasn’t a team that lost its all pro qb to a season ending injury and had the opportunity to draft a luxury position. It’s a team coming off a 3-13 season with a qb that was clearly done, and an offensive line that couldn’t block you or me. So what do they do, they draft a running back. To justify his draft position he needs to both put up Marshall Faulk numbers and generate some wins. McCoys numbers won’t cut it.

If you have any doubt, just listen to the front offices press conferences where they openly admit that they misread the state of the team in the 2018 offseason. The saving grace being that they may have lucked ass backward into an elite qb- maybe.
...  
christian : 6/27/2020 11:41 pm : link
If a player puts up 8 years of top 10 type total production, that’s a good pick.

Doesn’t make it the right pick for the time, and doesn’t make it the best pick given the circumstances. That’s not what I’m saying at all. I didn’t like the pick.

Eight high quality years in the NFL bucks the statistical trends. Eight high quality years from a running back is an accomplishment.
RE: ...  
lax counsel : 6/27/2020 11:48 pm : link
In comment 14925693 christian said:
Quote:
If a player puts up 8 years of top 10 type total production, that’s a good pick.

Doesn’t make it the right pick for the time, and doesn’t make it the best pick given the circumstances. That’s not what I’m saying at all. I didn’t like the pick.

Eight high quality years in the NFL bucks the statistical trends. Eight high quality years from a running back is an accomplishment.


I get what you’re saying, and it’s a respectable argument. But with a franchise that isn’t used to picking that high and clearly screaming for a rebuild regardless of the position, you need a team changing impact. McCoys stats are really good, but given the position and the state of the franchise, it just needs to be impactful beyond that. If we’re talking about a Marshall Faulk or Barry Sanders type career, than amazing pick. McCoys careers, major disappointment.
...  
christian : 6/27/2020 11:57 pm : link
McCoy is going to end up right on the outside of the HOF conversation. He’s had a sneaky good career.

I just think both sides of the draft evaluation have unreasonable expectations of Barkley. The numbers and comps people throw out make anything short of an unreasonably long and unreasonably productive career a failure.

He’s almost certainly not going to be the best running back ever.
RE: For RBs picked in the last 20 years  
Matt M. : 6/28/2020 1:30 am : link
In comment 14925683 jestersdead said:
Quote:
If he has a career path similar to Tomlinson, AP, Elliott and McCaffery then he was the right pick. Lets just hope its not along the lines of Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson.

I'd settle for the Edgerrin James years in Indy
None of thosen3 you don't want had a year on par with him. He is not on a trajectory to be Cedric Benson or the other 2.
IMO  
Dragon : 6/28/2020 11:23 am : link
Barkley can’t end up being another Eli border line HOF, yes the draft position hurts his cause but that’s also why he can’t just be an ok back when all is done he has to have numbers alone that says HOF first time anything less is unacceptable. I don’t now if the Giants will win a SB in the next seven years that’s his Giants sure bet time as a Giant no idea if he becomes like Eli a live time Giant. The guy is considered a generational talent if he does not provide that on the field for all the world to see then he will always be questioned about his true value and production. Look at the list top five NFL rushers all time who is he second to in physical talent maybe none that’s his karma there can only be just one number one can he become #1 yes. We have drafted the greatest LB of all time LT hopefully we can add the greatest RB of all time Barkley anything less will be a failure.
Can’t Saquon just be a great running back without touting  
LBH15 : 6/28/2020 12:34 pm : link
the generational RB hoo-haa?

It was a ridiculous comment made when he was drafted along with the “hand of god” one, and it certainly hasn’t gotten any less ridiculous at this point.

Barkley does some things on the field that you make you say wow for sure. But so did a lot of former and current top backs during their generations.



Anyone fixating on two gettelman quotes  
UConn4523 : 6/28/2020 12:56 pm : link
are the problem, not the quotes. Who cares what he was called?

He’s a great player and I hope it continues to be that way for a long time. That’s about all there is to say on it.
Barkley has superior physical tools  
SGMen : 6/28/2020 1:45 pm : link
I would not be shocked if healthy he doesn't put up say 300-1400-10 type numbers running and 90-800-4 type receiving numbers in this offense. I see a lot of quick hits to him out of the backfield to use his superb hands.

Barkley must pass protect better though. Watching him whiff at times is scary.
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