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Fantasy Football Keeper League Question

TheMick7 : 6/29/2020 11:29 am
Cannot keep your #1 pick (mine was Dalvin Cook) in this league but if you keep your second round pick,you lose your #1 (I draft 7th in 10 team league).Davante Adams was my 2nd round pick & I'm leaning towards keeping him,surrendering my first round pick. What do you think?
I wouldn't do that, value isn't there  
YAJ2112 : 6/29/2020 11:30 am : link
What are your other options.
I wouldn't.  
robbieballs2003 : 6/29/2020 11:32 am : link
I'm assuming there is a good chance Adams is still available if you want with the 7th pick. Do you know what players are being kept?
Won't know the keepers until July 31st.  
TheMick7 : 6/29/2020 12:14 pm : link
Along with Adams, my other 2 keepers are Deshaun Watson ( I'd lose my 5th) & Marquis Brown (I'd lose my 8th) You lose a draft pick one round better than the player was drafted.Watson is my only no brainer.
I'd put together  
pjcas18 : 6/29/2020 12:21 pm : link
who I think is going to be available at 7 (even though you won't know for sure).

I don't think I'd keep him, but it wouldn't be the worst decision.

Any chance Cook falls to you based on who others will keep? I think you'd need 4 or 5 people keeping their 2nd round picks (so losing their 1st), so probably not.
If you take Adams  
mdthedream : 6/29/2020 12:27 pm : link
that keeps you out of drafting all the first round picks from last year. Barkley,Mccaffrey,Elliot,Cook,Kamara,Chubb,M.Thomas. That is 7 all better than Adams.
To me  
mdthedream : 6/29/2020 12:28 pm : link
those rules are dumb.
pjcas18 : 6/29/2020 12:31 pm : link
mdthedream is right, just draft someone at 7 who was a 1st round pick last year.

No way I'd keep Adams over one of them. I'd hope as many people keep 1st round picks as possible. Maybe McAffrey or Kamara fall to you or even Cook, Zeke, or Thomas.

Worst case Adams is BPA at 7, though I doubt it, and I'd take that chance.
RE: Won't know the keepers until July 31st.  
robbieballs2003 : 6/29/2020 12:40 pm : link
In comment 14926190 TheMick7 said:
Along with Adams, my other 2 keepers are Deshaun Watson ( I'd lose my 5th) & Marquis Brown (I'd lose my 8th) You lose a draft pick one round better than the player was drafted.Watson is my only no brainer.

You have to give us all the info. You can't give us bits and expect accurate answers. You made it sound like only one keeper. As someone else stated, put a list together yourself and you'll have a better understanding.
How many keepers can you keep?  
robbieballs2003 : 6/29/2020 12:43 pm : link
Do you have to keep a set amount or is it up to three?
You can keep 0-4,and as I stated above,you give up  
TheMick7 : 6/29/2020 12:59 pm : link
a draft pick one round higher than the round you picked the player in the draft. Of the 3 I mentioned,Adams was a 2nd rounder,Watson a 6th rounder & Brown wasn't drafted,so according to this league's rules,you'd give up your 8th for any player drafted later than the 8th or undrafted.
The only other player i considered was Josh Jacobs  
TheMick7 : 6/29/2020 1:00 pm : link
I drafted him in the 3rd so I'd have to give up a second!
Ok, I have a similar league to this.  
robbieballs2003 : 6/29/2020 1:24 pm : link
Going by round value doesn't really work. What I would do, and others said something similar, is get a list of all the first round players. Then I would eliminate the top 4 non-first round players on every team. Put your list together. It is easier to print up a list and cross off those top 4 non-first round players. Then factor in the rookies you like. You'll get your answer that way. I suspect Jacobs may be decent value if you kept him but we wont know until we see your list.
I just looked up Jacobs  
robbieballs2003 : 6/29/2020 1:28 pm : link
Right now, and things change, Jacobs is going around 15th overall. So, yeah, giving up your second is solid value since you'd be drafting 14th in the 2nd round. But with the league you mentioned with there being keepers he'd most likely go earlier than 15.
Yeah I'd strongly consider  
pjcas18 : 6/29/2020 1:59 pm : link
Jacobs, based on what you put together about who you think others will be keeping.

In the 2nd round of a keeper league that could be good value.
Are there any other rules we need to know?  
YAJ2112 : 6/29/2020 2:45 pm : link
Is it PPR? 2 QB or Superflex? How many RBs/WRs do you start?

If I were you, I'd go through the teams in the league and mark off on a cheat sheet the players you think will be kept and also fill out a little draft grid with where they would be kept from a draft perspective. Do this exercise using as much knowledge as you have about your competitors as you can (ie Team 1 always keeps a QB, team 5 loves the Jets and will keep Lev Bell even though it will cost him a first round pick, etc) but fill in the rest with your best guess of how you would approach those teams.

Then you can assign value to your players. Is Davante Adams actually the 7th best player not marked off (or if a 1st round pick was used to keep a player before 7 the 6th)? If not, then toss him back. Repeat this process for all of your potential keepers. If the value is close, then you have to decide whether you want to keep that player - or throw him back and hope someone else takes him before you which causes a player you do like to drop to you.

As an aside, I don't think Watson is a no brainer at 5.7 (47th pick) in a 10 team league. And that's said as someone who takes QB earlier than the experts advise and a Watson mark. You know you're league better than us though, so if you love Watson and/or you don't think there's any way you'll get him back (or someone comparable) then keep him. Just a note... he's currently QB 5/6 with an ADP in the mid60s, so you may want to do the analysis to see who you think might be available to you at 5.7 and what QB(s) you might be able to get instead before you decide to keep him.
Thanks everyone for your help & suggestions  
TheMick7 : 6/29/2020 6:19 pm : link
Seems I've got some work to do over the next month! Thanks again!
mdthedream : 6/30/2020 10:24 am : link
Josh Jacobs in the second round is a no brainer.
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