Alonso, SWR, Allan. Sure I am missing some. I love what they have done in the past two drafts in overpaying slot in the 2nd, as decent players can be found in the first two rounds (especially overpaying slot in the 2nd). The rest is a crap shoot, and I don't mind wasting a 3rd to pay overslot in the 2nd.
and being able to pay these guys over slot is shaping up to be a pretty good couple of drafts for Brodie. Only time will tell, but it's nice to replenish the farm after that terrible deal last year.
and then since drafting Kay(16) and Vientos(17) they seemed to have stumbled on to this strategy that essentially gets them 2 first round picks by going over slot with their 2nd picks (Kay went underslot bc of TJS but I believe he was predicted to be a slot or above signing prior to that discovery). Prior to 2016 their 2nd round picks were pretty blah. Fulmer was a hit in 2011 and I guess you would say Plawecki was an ok pick, but other than that a lot of busts (Church, Ramos, Reynolds, etc).
Kay, Vientos, SWR, Wolf, Allen, Ginn certainly fit a different type of pick.
Alonso was obviously the literal grand slam 2nd rounder in these last 5 drafts, although he doesn't quite fit that same profile as an underslot college pick.
Amazingly the draft has been by far the biggest strength of this organization over the past 10 years after being it's biggest weakness by far over the previous 10.
trade still looks bad on paper (especially if he pitches well and they don't retain him). I would love a redo on that one. Stroman is bigger name than game. Seems like a good dude but he's a solid #3. If he pitches well they better shell out the money to keep him or that's a truly awful deal.
of the 16 year olds the Yankees are tied to sounds like a monster. Really wish the Mets would occasionally be in on guys like this or big Cuban prospects. It's just not their way.
to Law's Mets draft podcast. I didn't love the Baty pick then and I don't love it now. He seems 100% convinced Baty is a 1b. He's already 21 in November aka he won't have anymore pro ab's until he's a 21 year old who didn't even play in college. He said Greene is a late bloomer who can really hit. MLB ready prospects remain an issue
100% agree on Stroman trade - SWR looks like a stud prospect
that trade could be worse than the Diaz/Kelenic/Dunn - especially if they don't resign Stroman. Though I suspect they will at least get him for 1 more year after this weird season (I suspect many FA will want to take 1 year deals to re-enter the market later).
Also agree on Baty. I never liked that pick. Solid hitting corners are kind of a dime a dozen now. A first round pick whose upside is maybe JDFD is ok but not exactly celebration worthy.
Not having SWR stings just as much as not having Kelenic. They would probably be 1 and 2 in our org right now and the system would probably be ranked top 5-10. I would have no issue if BVW gets replaced by the new ownership, though I suspect he will sell himself to get at least a year.
RE: 100% agree on Stroman trade - SWR looks like a stud prospect
that trade could be worse than the Diaz/Kelenic/Dunn - especially if they don't resign Stroman. Though I suspect they will at least get him for 1 more year after this weird season (I suspect many FA will want to take 1 year deals to re-enter the market later).
Also agree on Baty. I never liked that pick. Solid hitting corners are kind of a dime a dozen now. A first round pick whose upside is maybe JDFD is ok but not exactly celebration worthy.
Not having SWR stings just as much as not having Kelenic. They would probably be 1 and 2 in our org right now and the system would probably be ranked top 5-10. I would have no issue if BVW gets replaced by the new ownership, though I suspect he will sell himself to get at least a year.
Agreed. Could give two shits about Kay, but I think SWR has #1/#2 upside
Depending on the timing of the sale it may be really difficult to
get rid of BVW and have a capable replacement ready to go in time for FA. Conversely we could in theory we completely sitting out FA if the wilpons eff up the sale. My fear (and one that nothing has alleviated), is that the mets are going to have a very skimpy payroll for the foreseeable future if the new owner doesn't have SNY. That is probably even more the case with a conglomerate ownership group like JLo.
abut the Stro/SWR trade is the Mets should have been sellers, not buyers.
But I guess they viewed it as a "cheap" year of Stro ($12M) vs having to pony up and re-sign wheeler ($20+M) and the cost of that $$ savings was SWR and Kay. And sure Kay doesn't project to be elite, but he's not nothing.
it was a dumb trade that only ever would have made sense if the Mets were contenders and then it made all the sense in the world - that rotation of deGrom, Thor, Wheeler, and Stro would have been really tough in the playoffs and giving up a young SWR - would have been a trade off.
it was a dumber trade than the Kelenic deal bc 4 YOC on Diaz at least
made sense and the guy was 24 years old coming off a truly elite season. If he put up (or puts up in the future) a couple more Mariano level years you can live with any return given up.
That's not to say it was a good trade (lord knows most hated it from day 1) but the logic was far better than trading for a non-elite SP, having a non-elite year, with 1.5 years of control.
RE: it was a dumber trade than the Kelenic deal bc 4 YOC on Diaz at least
made sense and the guy was 24 years old coming off a truly elite season. If he put up (or puts up in the future) a couple more Mariano level years you can live with any return given up.
That's not to say it was a good trade (lord knows most hated it from day 1) but the logic was far better than trading for a non-elite SP, having a non-elite year, with 1.5 years of control.
Tallest midget contest.
both trades were ridiculously stupid. I wouldn't trade the 6th pick in the draft for a closer. Not to mention Dunn.
it's not all bad with BVW (2 seemingly good drafts, JDD trade) but he woefully overestimated his former clients and made 2 incredibly short sighted trades in the name of being aggressive.
I hated Sandy's lack of urgency and seemingly limitless patience but boy did I quickly miss it.
it's not all bad with BVW (2 seemingly good drafts, JDD trade) but he woefully overestimated his former clients and made 2 incredibly short sighted trades in the name of being aggressive.
I hated Sandy's lack of urgency and seemingly limitless patience but boy did I quickly miss it.
lol, good point, is there no happy medium between Sandy's 8 year plan (2015 not withstanding) and BVW's impetuousness?
it's not all bad with BVW (2 seemingly good drafts, JDD trade) but he woefully overestimated his former clients and made 2 incredibly short sighted trades in the name of being aggressive.
I hated Sandy's lack of urgency and seemingly limitless patience but boy did I quickly miss it.
lol, good point, is there no happy medium between Sandy's 8 year plan (2015 not withstanding) and BVW's impetuousness?
I very much wonder what Sandy's 8 year plan would have looked like with money to spend. Don't forget he had to cut salary dramatically until about 2014 when he was able to sign Granderson and Colon - his 2 biggest signings other than Wright/Cespedes and who both ended up being key contributors in 2015 + 2016. Would more money have sped up those first few seasons to relevance and helped them sustain after 2016? Maybe or maybe not but it probably wouldn't have hurt. 1 random thing that still bugs me is after 2017 they were initially rumored to be interested in guys like Lorenzo Cain and Mike Minor before the ultimately settled on Jay Bruce and Swarzak who weren't even that much cheaper. Though I suppose with Jeff hiring Callaway who knows if those swaps would have even mattered.
So my guess is with more money Sandy would have been a little bit more aggressive and perhaps a lot more effective, but it's hard to say. His biggest misses IMO were some trades that happened that at the time wouldn't have been too hard to match - specifically the Ben Zobrist trades (first from TB to OAK then OAK to KC). We were rumored to be in on him both times, we later tried to bid on him as a UFA, and of course he ultimately went to KC and may have been the difference in winning a WS or not. And followed that performance up being named WS MVP for the Cubs in 2016.
And if this walk down memory lane wasn't fun enough already here's a tweet from July 2015:
Quote:
Zach Braziller
@NYPost_Brazille
Ben Zobrist is owed about 2-3 million rest of year, and according to Eddie Coleman, #mets hesitant to pay that. Says it all, if true.
2:43 PM · Jul 21, 2015 from Queens, NY
There were a few other highly questionable things like Tejada/Flores at SS, but certainly small potatoes compared to trading Kelenic/SWR/taking on a contract like Cano.
op 10 Prospects
Name Age Tier
1. SS Ronny Mauricio 19 1
2. C Francisco Alvarez 18 2
3. 3B Brett Baty 20 2
4. RHP Matthew Allan 19 2
5. 3B Mark Vientos 20 2
6. OF Pete Crow-Armstrong 18 3
7. SS Andres Gimenez 21 3
8. LHP David Peterson 24 3
9. RHP J.T. Ginn 21 3
10. LHP Thomas Szapucki 23 3
Next 5: RHP Robert Dominguez, RHP Franklyn Kilome, RHP Junior Santos, LHP Kevin Smith, RHP Josh Wolf
Farm System Snapshot
With seven of their top 10 prospects still shy of their 21st birthdays, the New York Mets are a system on the rise, led by toolsy shortstop Ronny Mauricio and 2019 picks Brett Baty and Matthew Allan.
At No. 19 overall in the 2020 draft, the Mets added the best defensive outfielder in Pete Crow-Armstrong. If his hit tool develops as hoped, he has a chance to be a two-way star. It will take a few years for the MLB squad to reap the rewards, but this system has a chance to far exceed its current ranking. Link - ( New Window )
Perhaps some of this is biased by the positive outcomes, but I believe Thor and Conforto were like 1 and 2 going into 2015. Matz, Rosario, Dom Smith, Nimmo, Lugo were all on the lists/in the system too. Obviously they had 0 acclaim but even Gsellman, McNeil, TJ Rivera, and a few others ended up overachieving. I count 9 guys on the active roster right now from that group (Syndergaard would be 10).
So 10 guys from the current crop all reaching the bigs as contributors with a few all stars seems like it would be an exceptional outcome, but regardless the system definitely rebounded nicely and quickly post graduation of the crop above. I can't imagine there are too many teams with a better infield group than Mauricio, Gimenez, Alvarez, Vientos, Baty. PCA and Green help in the OF that was completely empty otherwise. The pitching is still thin and lacking a true stud but all it takes is 1 guy to really progress. Thor wasn't Thor until he hit his AA years and JDG wasn't JDG until he was literally competing for Cy Youngs. Lugo and Gsellman weren't highly acclaimed until they helped lock down the '16 WC spot.
after the Dickey trade though Syndergaard and TDA were #1 and #2 in the Mets top prospects - so maybe not quite as top heavy (before that trade).
deGrom was also on that list as was Rosario so hind sight sure that turned out pretty well. lol.
Yeah I almost can't even fairly count JDG since the outcome is obviously so good and he was never ranked highly.
But I think Thor and Conforto both entered 2015 as top 50 prospects, Thor close to top 10, and both not only had big impacts getting to the WS but overall both have been probably as good or better than expected. And behind them Matz, Nimmo, Dom Smith, Rosario were borderline top 100 types at that same time (even if they weren't at their relative peaks yet).
With Kelenic, SWR, and Kay this current crop could have very well given that group a real run for their money though. With those 3 you can field a legitimate "futures" lineup.
CF - PCA
SS - Mauricio
RF - Kelenic
3B - Vientos
1B - Baty
C - Alvarez
LF - Green
2B - Gimenez
SP 1/2/3 - SWR, Allan, Ginn
SP 4/5 - Szpuck, Kay, Peterson, Wolf, Smith
(sigh)
Also sidenote - it's kind of crazy that in between those 2 crops they also developed 2 ROY level players we aren't even talking about with Alonso and McNeil. New ownership can do what they want with BVW but they better keep a good chunk of the core scouting group that's been there the past 10 years.
I believe he pressed after the trade coming home to his own neck of the woods. I think he'll pitch better this year. Money had a lot to with with that situation. They want to keep and pay DeGrom and Thor but didn't want to with Wheeler. I get that. Not every pitcher can be making 100M+, especially when ownership is in bad shape financially. BDV may have been in a bit of a corner on this one, he wanted to compete and without another proven arm the team didn't realistically have enough in the rotation. Stroman is the perfect #3 rotation guy.
do not believe they plan on keeping Syndergaard. Could that change with a new owner? For sure. But I disagree the plan was to add Stroman to replace Wheeler and then give Syndergaard a market rate deal. Stroman's career numbers are what they are. Solid #3 SP. Mets rotation minus Syndergaard is nothing special, nor do they have any "top" SP prospects who are likely to ever be teammates with in his prime DeGrom.
I think Stroman was to avoid paying Wheeler and still having semblance of a good top 3, but I don't think that transaction had anything to do with Syndergaard long-term or not.
From what I have read Wheeler's agent even came back to the Mets to match the Phillies offer and the Mets never even responded. They never made Wheeler an offer before then. So I can conclude the Mets stupidly "sold" on SWR and Kay to get Stro and avoid paying Wheeler.
I think Stroman was to avoid paying Wheeler and still having semblance of a good top 3, but I don't think that transaction had anything to do with Syndergaard long-term or not.
From what I have read Wheeler's agent even came back to the Mets to match the Phillies offer and the Mets never even responded. They never made Wheeler an offer before then. So I can conclude the Mets stupidly "sold" on SWR and Kay to get Stro and avoid paying Wheeler.
I'm with you PJ. I believe Stroman was to replace Wheeler but not because they intended on giving Syndergaard a mega-deal and wanted to avoid 3 expensive pitchers. Things may change with the new owners but I suspect the plan was to let Syndergaard walk (unless he took a below market deal) and maybe re-sign the presumably much cheaper (and inferior) Stroman. Likely signing a FA SP (of lesser quality) to back-fill.
further support this, Syndergaard noted (pre-injury) that there had been no discussions regarding a new deal but that he was open to them. If they wanted to keep him (and potentially keep the price down), last season was the time to attempt to do it. Not in his final year, less than 12 months from FA. Once Wheeler was allowed to walk, you would have thought they would have thrown money at Thor and they never did.
it would be ownership suicide. The seats would be empty. They also shouldn't have allowed their young drafted pitchers to be dealt off in that case. No one is buying Stroman as a Syndergaard replacement. Possible they already knew they wouldn't be the ownership making the call on Noah? It's starting to look like that's the case.
If, but If, Diaz, Familia, Betances, Wilson, Gsellman, etc. pan out (for the most part) Lugo is not as needed in the pen.
he's made it clear he wants to start
Is he a Wheeler replacement?
He's got 4 plus pitches so he's got a starting pitchers repertoire, just depends on his elbow, if starting him ruins him, I wouldn't do it.
And while Wheeler has flashed absolute dominance at times, it's not like he's been consistent or consistently dominant.
I think the issue with this is too much "hope" on guys you might not be able to rely on. Diaz was not good, Gsellman is mediocre, Familia was not good and Betances velocity was way down in camp (I realize he says he's a slow starter etc) BUT the pen could be pretty bad if things don't break right (or very good if they do) but a guy with a bad elbow likely would have trouble moving back to multiple days per week if Lugo needed to be yanked. I'd be all for it personally (mostly out of curiosity) but there is legit downside.
further support this, Syndergaard noted (pre-injury) that there had been no discussions regarding a new deal but that he was open to them. If they wanted to keep him (and potentially keep the price down), last season was the time to attempt to do it. Not in his final year, less than 12 months from FA. Once Wheeler was allowed to walk, you would have thought they would have thrown money at Thor and they never did.
They didn't have the $ to throw. They didn't even get JDG an offer until he went to the press. The Cano deal was a half assed attempt to win without increasing short term payroll, probably hoping they could win enough to make money to spend in the future. And perhaps knowing if that hailmary didn't work they'd have to sell and it wouldn't be their problem anyway. Sort of like a pyramid scheme.
If, but If, Diaz, Familia, Betances, Wilson, Gsellman, etc. pan out (for the most part) Lugo is not as needed in the pen.
he's made it clear he wants to start
Is he a Wheeler replacement?
He's got 4 plus pitches so he's got a starting pitchers repertoire, just depends on his elbow, if starting him ruins him, I wouldn't do it.
And while Wheeler has flashed absolute dominance at times, it's not like he's been consistent or consistently dominant.
I think the issue with this is too much "hope" on guys you might not be able to rely on. Diaz was not good, Gsellman is mediocre, Familia was not good and Betances velocity was way down in camp (I realize he says he's a slow starter etc) BUT the pen could be pretty bad if things don't break right (or very good if they do) but a guy with a bad elbow likely would have trouble moving back to multiple days per week if Lugo needed to be yanked. I'd be all for it personally (mostly out of curiosity) but there is legit downside.
Absolutely, like I said "big if".
It's not like it's impossible, Diaz is a season away from being unhittable. Familia was one of the best closers in baseball in 2015/2016. Betances too, plus guys like Wilson etc have track records - just some (Gsellman for example) most recently bad.
Mets need some good luck for change. Maybe losing Syndergaard is the only lump we'll take this year.
Lugo as a SP is interesting & in the short season a real possibility
personally, if I were manager I would not have entered this season with a set closer - I'd have let Diaz, Lugo, and Familia all compete for the role. Best man wins. And all 3 get chances to close when it makes sense. Give myself the flexibility to deploy all 3 whenever the match is most needed.
So that would still be my plan. And if it happens that 1 of the other guys outperforms Lugo and there's enough depth, I'd consider stretching him out for the homestretch playoffs if he's needed there.
Betances may or may not also be in that convo, just depends on health. But I'd take things slower with him since health is a question.
further support this, Syndergaard noted (pre-injury) that there had been no discussions regarding a new deal but that he was open to them. If they wanted to keep him (and potentially keep the price down), last season was the time to attempt to do it. Not in his final year, less than 12 months from FA. Once Wheeler was allowed to walk, you would have thought they would have thrown money at Thor and they never did.
They didn't have the $ to throw. They didn't even get JDG an offer until he went to the press. The Cano deal was a half assed attempt to win without increasing short term payroll, probably hoping they could win enough to make money to spend in the future. And perhaps knowing if that hailmary didn't work they'd have to sell and it wouldn't be their problem anyway. Sort of like a pyramid scheme.
I fully acknowledge economics may change with a new owner (lets hope). I just also think there was 0% "well this will help us keep Syndergaard". They can't continue to chip away at the rotation and still say "hey look it's a strength!". I do not see better than a 4th starter in the pipeline that will be throwing MLB innings before the end of NEXT season let alone this one. Would love to be wrong but on paper the most exciting young talent is over a year away.
the Wilpons worrying about resigning Syndergaard post-2021 is like
and it looks like they overlapped a few times in the minors.
2013 Savannah Sand Gnats - Lugo made 5 starts and went 2-2 with a 2 era, they actually won the league championship.
2017 Binghamton - Lugo made 2 starts and went 1-1 with a 2 era (I think they were rehab starts since he'd already debuted in MLB).
So not exactly an extensive history and the decision re: how to use Lugo as a prospect obviously was beyond Rojas and more of an organization decision, but interesting that he has seen him start effectively first hand.
'Their entire operating method since Madoff has been day to day.'
Second this. I don't see not having offered Noah a contract yet because that was the 'smart' thing to do reflecting a decision to let him walk. Since when was doing the smart thing how we judged this ownership? I do think they 'may' have been prepping to sell already. I don't think they believed for a second that Stroman was Noah's replacement. He was a cheaper and more suitable contract for the #3 starter in the rotation.
RE: interesting re: Lugo as a starter - I looked up his career w/ Rojas
and it looks like they overlapped a few times in the minors.
2013 Savannah Sand Gnats - Lugo made 5 starts and went 2-2 with a 2 era, they actually won the league championship.
2017 Binghamton - Lugo made 2 starts and went 1-1 with a 2 era (I think they were rehab starts since he'd already debuted in MLB).
So not exactly an extensive history and the decision re: how to use Lugo as a prospect obviously was beyond Rojas and more of an organization decision, but interesting that he has seen him start effectively first hand.
I thought the decision about starter vs reliever was because he had a tear in his elbow (?) and it was thought to be non-surgical and being a reliever would put less stress on the elbow.
Any time I've heard him talk about it he's said he's a starter.
if i'm remembering right the tear was found post WBC
and at that time it went into the thinking of keeping him in the BP. But at that time they also had a glut of starters with the "5 aces" plus Gsellman. Then he excelled in the BP so that's where he's remained since that's also been by far the bigger need.
I don't think it's a no-brainer either way and I would definitely prefer keeping him in the BP in a full season because it seems a lot less risky for him to throw 50 innings vs. 200. But given the shortened season (and Thor injury) I'd be willing to consider it the BP shows it's deep enough this year.
Link - ( New Window )
Kay, Vientos, SWR, Wolf, Allen, Ginn certainly fit a different type of pick.
Alonso was obviously the literal grand slam 2nd rounder in these last 5 drafts, although he doesn't quite fit that same profile as an underslot college pick.
Amazingly the draft has been by far the biggest strength of this organization over the past 10 years after being it's biggest weakness by far over the previous 10.
Also agree on Baty. I never liked that pick. Solid hitting corners are kind of a dime a dozen now. A first round pick whose upside is maybe JDFD is ok but not exactly celebration worthy.
Not having SWR stings just as much as not having Kelenic. They would probably be 1 and 2 in our org right now and the system would probably be ranked top 5-10. I would have no issue if BVW gets replaced by the new ownership, though I suspect he will sell himself to get at least a year.
Also agree on Baty. I never liked that pick. Solid hitting corners are kind of a dime a dozen now. A first round pick whose upside is maybe JDFD is ok but not exactly celebration worthy.
Not having SWR stings just as much as not having Kelenic. They would probably be 1 and 2 in our org right now and the system would probably be ranked top 5-10. I would have no issue if BVW gets replaced by the new ownership, though I suspect he will sell himself to get at least a year.
Agreed. Could give two shits about Kay, but I think SWR has #1/#2 upside
But I guess they viewed it as a "cheap" year of Stro ($12M) vs having to pony up and re-sign wheeler ($20+M) and the cost of that $$ savings was SWR and Kay. And sure Kay doesn't project to be elite, but he's not nothing.
it was a dumb trade that only ever would have made sense if the Mets were contenders and then it made all the sense in the world - that rotation of deGrom, Thor, Wheeler, and Stro would have been really tough in the playoffs and giving up a young SWR - would have been a trade off.
That's not to say it was a good trade (lord knows most hated it from day 1) but the logic was far better than trading for a non-elite SP, having a non-elite year, with 1.5 years of control.
That's not to say it was a good trade (lord knows most hated it from day 1) but the logic was far better than trading for a non-elite SP, having a non-elite year, with 1.5 years of control.
Tallest midget contest.
both trades were ridiculously stupid. I wouldn't trade the 6th pick in the draft for a closer. Not to mention Dunn.
and to take on the cash of Cano on top of it.
I'm puking in my mouth all over again.
both trades reeked of a GM being over his head.
I hated Sandy's lack of urgency and seemingly limitless patience but boy did I quickly miss it.
I hated Sandy's lack of urgency and seemingly limitless patience but boy did I quickly miss it.
lol, good point, is there no happy medium between Sandy's 8 year plan (2015 not withstanding) and BVW's impetuousness?
Quote:
it's not all bad with BVW (2 seemingly good drafts, JDD trade) but he woefully overestimated his former clients and made 2 incredibly short sighted trades in the name of being aggressive.
I hated Sandy's lack of urgency and seemingly limitless patience but boy did I quickly miss it.
lol, good point, is there no happy medium between Sandy's 8 year plan (2015 not withstanding) and BVW's impetuousness?
I very much wonder what Sandy's 8 year plan would have looked like with money to spend. Don't forget he had to cut salary dramatically until about 2014 when he was able to sign Granderson and Colon - his 2 biggest signings other than Wright/Cespedes and who both ended up being key contributors in 2015 + 2016. Would more money have sped up those first few seasons to relevance and helped them sustain after 2016? Maybe or maybe not but it probably wouldn't have hurt. 1 random thing that still bugs me is after 2017 they were initially rumored to be interested in guys like Lorenzo Cain and Mike Minor before the ultimately settled on Jay Bruce and Swarzak who weren't even that much cheaper. Though I suppose with Jeff hiring Callaway who knows if those swaps would have even mattered.
So my guess is with more money Sandy would have been a little bit more aggressive and perhaps a lot more effective, but it's hard to say. His biggest misses IMO were some trades that happened that at the time wouldn't have been too hard to match - specifically the Ben Zobrist trades (first from TB to OAK then OAK to KC). We were rumored to be in on him both times, we later tried to bid on him as a UFA, and of course he ultimately went to KC and may have been the difference in winning a WS or not. And followed that performance up being named WS MVP for the Cubs in 2016.
And if this walk down memory lane wasn't fun enough already here's a tweet from July 2015:
@NYPost_Brazille
Ben Zobrist is owed about 2-3 million rest of year, and according to Eddie Coleman, #mets hesitant to pay that. Says it all, if true.
2:43 PM · Jul 21, 2015 from Queens, NY
There were a few other highly questionable things like Tejada/Flores at SS, but certainly small potatoes compared to trading Kelenic/SWR/taking on a contract like Cano.
Allen
Wolf
Peterson
Ginn
Position players
Mauricio
Baty
Armstrong
Alvarez
Gimeniz
Green
Brodie kicking ass in the draft
Name Age Tier
1. SS Ronny Mauricio 19 1
2. C Francisco Alvarez 18 2
3. 3B Brett Baty 20 2
4. RHP Matthew Allan 19 2
5. 3B Mark Vientos 20 2
6. OF Pete Crow-Armstrong 18 3
7. SS Andres Gimenez 21 3
8. LHP David Peterson 24 3
9. RHP J.T. Ginn 21 3
10. LHP Thomas Szapucki 23 3
Next 5: RHP Robert Dominguez, RHP Franklyn Kilome, RHP Junior Santos, LHP Kevin Smith, RHP Josh Wolf
Farm System Snapshot
With seven of their top 10 prospects still shy of their 21st birthdays, the New York Mets are a system on the rise, led by toolsy shortstop Ronny Mauricio and 2019 picks Brett Baty and Matthew Allan.
At No. 19 overall in the 2020 draft, the Mets added the best defensive outfielder in Pete Crow-Armstrong. If his hit tool develops as hoped, he has a chance to be a two-way star. It will take a few years for the MLB squad to reap the rewards, but this system has a chance to far exceed its current ranking.
Link - ( New Window )
Doesn't mean any of them will pan out, but at least you have some players to "dream on". Good athletes, high ceilings, youth.
With Kelenic and SWR it's probably a top 10 system. Not even considering Kay or Dunn.
So 10 guys from the current crop all reaching the bigs as contributors with a few all stars seems like it would be an exceptional outcome, but regardless the system definitely rebounded nicely and quickly post graduation of the crop above. I can't imagine there are too many teams with a better infield group than Mauricio, Gimenez, Alvarez, Vientos, Baty. PCA and Green help in the OF that was completely empty otherwise. The pitching is still thin and lacking a true stud but all it takes is 1 guy to really progress. Thor wasn't Thor until he hit his AA years and JDG wasn't JDG until he was literally competing for Cy Youngs. Lugo and Gsellman weren't highly acclaimed until they helped lock down the '16 WC spot.
deGrom was also on that list as was Rosario so hind sight sure that turned out pretty well. lol.
deGrom was also on that list as was Rosario so hind sight sure that turned out pretty well. lol.
Yeah I almost can't even fairly count JDG since the outcome is obviously so good and he was never ranked highly.
But I think Thor and Conforto both entered 2015 as top 50 prospects, Thor close to top 10, and both not only had big impacts getting to the WS but overall both have been probably as good or better than expected. And behind them Matz, Nimmo, Dom Smith, Rosario were borderline top 100 types at that same time (even if they weren't at their relative peaks yet).
With Kelenic, SWR, and Kay this current crop could have very well given that group a real run for their money though. With those 3 you can field a legitimate "futures" lineup.
CF - PCA
SS - Mauricio
RF - Kelenic
3B - Vientos
1B - Baty
C - Alvarez
LF - Green
2B - Gimenez
SP 1/2/3 - SWR, Allan, Ginn
SP 4/5 - Szpuck, Kay, Peterson, Wolf, Smith
(sigh)
Also sidenote - it's kind of crazy that in between those 2 crops they also developed 2 ROY level players we aren't even talking about with Alonso and McNeil. New ownership can do what they want with BVW but they better keep a good chunk of the core scouting group that's been there the past 10 years.
From what I have read Wheeler's agent even came back to the Mets to match the Phillies offer and the Mets never even responded. They never made Wheeler an offer before then. So I can conclude the Mets stupidly "sold" on SWR and Kay to get Stro and avoid paying Wheeler.
From what I have read Wheeler's agent even came back to the Mets to match the Phillies offer and the Mets never even responded. They never made Wheeler an offer before then. So I can conclude the Mets stupidly "sold" on SWR and Kay to get Stro and avoid paying Wheeler.
I'm with you PJ. I believe Stroman was to replace Wheeler but not because they intended on giving Syndergaard a mega-deal and wanted to avoid 3 expensive pitchers. Things may change with the new owners but I suspect the plan was to let Syndergaard walk (unless he took a below market deal) and maybe re-sign the presumably much cheaper (and inferior) Stroman. Likely signing a FA SP (of lesser quality) to back-fill.
If, but If, Diaz, Familia, Betances, Wilson, Gsellman, etc. pan out (for the most part) Lugo is not as needed in the pen.
he's made it clear he wants to start
Is he a Wheeler replacement?
He's got 4 plus pitches so he's got a starting pitchers repertoire, just depends on his elbow, if starting him ruins him, I wouldn't do it.
And while Wheeler has flashed absolute dominance at times, it's not like he's been consistent or consistently dominant.
If, but If, Diaz, Familia, Betances, Wilson, Gsellman, etc. pan out (for the most part) Lugo is not as needed in the pen.
he's made it clear he wants to start
Is he a Wheeler replacement?
He's got 4 plus pitches so he's got a starting pitchers repertoire, just depends on his elbow, if starting him ruins him, I wouldn't do it.
And while Wheeler has flashed absolute dominance at times, it's not like he's been consistent or consistently dominant.
I think the issue with this is too much "hope" on guys you might not be able to rely on. Diaz was not good, Gsellman is mediocre, Familia was not good and Betances velocity was way down in camp (I realize he says he's a slow starter etc) BUT the pen could be pretty bad if things don't break right (or very good if they do) but a guy with a bad elbow likely would have trouble moving back to multiple days per week if Lugo needed to be yanked. I'd be all for it personally (mostly out of curiosity) but there is legit downside.
They didn't have the $ to throw. They didn't even get JDG an offer until he went to the press. The Cano deal was a half assed attempt to win without increasing short term payroll, probably hoping they could win enough to make money to spend in the future. And perhaps knowing if that hailmary didn't work they'd have to sell and it wouldn't be their problem anyway. Sort of like a pyramid scheme.
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is the wild card.
If, but If, Diaz, Familia, Betances, Wilson, Gsellman, etc. pan out (for the most part) Lugo is not as needed in the pen.
he's made it clear he wants to start
Is he a Wheeler replacement?
He's got 4 plus pitches so he's got a starting pitchers repertoire, just depends on his elbow, if starting him ruins him, I wouldn't do it.
And while Wheeler has flashed absolute dominance at times, it's not like he's been consistent or consistently dominant.
I think the issue with this is too much "hope" on guys you might not be able to rely on. Diaz was not good, Gsellman is mediocre, Familia was not good and Betances velocity was way down in camp (I realize he says he's a slow starter etc) BUT the pen could be pretty bad if things don't break right (or very good if they do) but a guy with a bad elbow likely would have trouble moving back to multiple days per week if Lugo needed to be yanked. I'd be all for it personally (mostly out of curiosity) but there is legit downside.
Absolutely, like I said "big if".
It's not like it's impossible, Diaz is a season away from being unhittable. Familia was one of the best closers in baseball in 2015/2016. Betances too, plus guys like Wilson etc have track records - just some (Gsellman for example) most recently bad.
Mets need some good luck for change. Maybe losing Syndergaard is the only lump we'll take this year.
So that would still be my plan. And if it happens that 1 of the other guys outperforms Lugo and there's enough depth, I'd consider stretching him out for the homestretch playoffs if he's needed there.
Betances may or may not also be in that convo, just depends on health. But I'd take things slower with him since health is a question.
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further support this, Syndergaard noted (pre-injury) that there had been no discussions regarding a new deal but that he was open to them. If they wanted to keep him (and potentially keep the price down), last season was the time to attempt to do it. Not in his final year, less than 12 months from FA. Once Wheeler was allowed to walk, you would have thought they would have thrown money at Thor and they never did.
They didn't have the $ to throw. They didn't even get JDG an offer until he went to the press. The Cano deal was a half assed attempt to win without increasing short term payroll, probably hoping they could win enough to make money to spend in the future. And perhaps knowing if that hailmary didn't work they'd have to sell and it wouldn't be their problem anyway. Sort of like a pyramid scheme.
I fully acknowledge economics may change with a new owner (lets hope). I just also think there was 0% "well this will help us keep Syndergaard". They can't continue to chip away at the rotation and still say "hey look it's a strength!". I do not see better than a 4th starter in the pipeline that will be throwing MLB innings before the end of NEXT season let alone this one. Would love to be wrong but on paper the most exciting young talent is over a year away.
2013 Savannah Sand Gnats - Lugo made 5 starts and went 2-2 with a 2 era, they actually won the league championship.
2017 Binghamton - Lugo made 2 starts and went 1-1 with a 2 era (I think they were rehab starts since he'd already debuted in MLB).
So not exactly an extensive history and the decision re: how to use Lugo as a prospect obviously was beyond Rojas and more of an organization decision, but interesting that he has seen him start effectively first hand.
2013 Savannah Sand Gnats - Lugo made 5 starts and went 2-2 with a 2 era, they actually won the league championship.
2017 Binghamton - Lugo made 2 starts and went 1-1 with a 2 era (I think they were rehab starts since he'd already debuted in MLB).
So not exactly an extensive history and the decision re: how to use Lugo as a prospect obviously was beyond Rojas and more of an organization decision, but interesting that he has seen him start effectively first hand.
I thought the decision about starter vs reliever was because he had a tear in his elbow (?) and it was thought to be non-surgical and being a reliever would put less stress on the elbow.
Any time I've heard him talk about it he's said he's a starter.
I don't think it's a no-brainer either way and I would definitely prefer keeping him in the BP in a full season because it seems a lot less risky for him to throw 50 innings vs. 200. But given the shortened season (and Thor injury) I'd be willing to consider it the BP shows it's deep enough this year.