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NFT: Mets 2020 Season Chances

CMicks3110 : 7/3/2020 5:55 am
Was up early and browsing our projected roster and the rosters of our 7 other opponents, and I have to say, we're in pretty good shape.

While Syndergaard is a massive blow, our lineup should be the best of this group of teams. Not a single easy out in our lineup, and our bench depth should make that the case on pretty much every night, with the exception when Ramos is given a rest and Nido or someone else is starting.

But the top of our rotation depth is solid, we have Jake and Stroman at the top, and our Bullpen, especially if Betances returns to form should be outstanding.

The Braves and Yankees are formidable, but the Nats really don't look all that scary with Rendon gone, lack of depth in the rotation and a weak bench and bullpen; the Phillies also have weaknesses and are a middle of the road team. The Marlins barely have a recognizable player.

On the AL side, Rays have a very solid rotation and bullpen, their lineup has weaknesses though. The Red Sox, even without Betts, seems pretty damn good, but Rotation Depth and an awful bullpen could hold them back. The Blue Jays are young, probably not ready yet. The orioles also barely have a recognizable name.

Bottom Line is the Mets in my opinion have the best Lineup, Bullpen and Bench in their league, and their rotation is solid despite losses of Wheeler and Syndergaard. If we can get through the beginning of games in good shape, we should be in the best position to win in the later innings.

That's my early take.
AJ Ramos  
DanMetroMan : 7/3/2020 9:18 am : link
attempting a comeback with LAD. Solid gamble for them.
thanks for responding to my analysis  
CMicks3110 : 7/3/2020 9:44 am : link
Dan with a substantive reaction.
I wouldn't say they're in good shape but I would say 60gm season helps  
Eric on Li : 7/3/2020 10:11 am : link
because it can help hide the rotation where beyond JDG they are thin and could help strengthen their BP by not testing the depth as much as a full season. Plus DH is a huge help for them with candidates like JDD, Smith, and Cespedes (plus Alonso/Cano).

It could do those things for every team, but for a roster that lost about 10fwar of SP from last year to this year and had a BP that sabotaged their season last year, those are big helps. It would have taken a lot of good luck for this starting rotation to get through 162 games in good shape for a postseason after Thor went down.

I'm intrigued to see if Wacha or Porcello can get hot in a limited fashion. You really only need 5-6 good starts from either. Who knows maybe we even get to see Peterson throw a few games.

The biggest questions by far are in the BP, can either of Familia or Diaz go lights out? In a 60 game season, that means they are likely to only throw about 20 innings each. It is not inconceivable for either to pitch to a sub-2 ERA in that kind of short window.
Without Syndergaard  
pjcas18 : 7/3/2020 10:24 am : link
Mets seasons pretty much hinges on 1 of Porcello, Matz, Wacha (or Lugo if he gets added to the rotation) pitching like a legit TOR starter. Not an ace, but a 1/2 and the bullpen pitching like it's 2018.

Otherwise I see the Mets with deGrom being his usual self, Stro who is a better #3 than a #2 and a hole left by Syndergaard.

I'm not saying get hung up on #1 or #2 or #3 etc starter, but bottom line is you need 3 starters that project as net positive starters and then hope your 4 and 5 are at worst net neutral.

I also think Stroman gets a little underrated on here because his worst "season" was his time with the Mets.

He pitched to an average 3.7 FIP over almost 6 years in the AL East. Pitchers are "supposed to" improve when switching to the NL. He did not.

Anyway, I think the Mets lineup will be fine, but the Mets season hinges on the starters not named JdG or Stro and the bullpen.

Stroman was sort of due to pitch badly for the Mets last year  
Eric on Li : 7/3/2020 10:43 am : link
even with his poor stint here, he was so good in the first half that cumulatively it was still the best season of his career by a good margin.

So last year, he was either due for some regression when we traded for him because his performance had been so good YTD, or he had taken a step forward to being an elite pitcher.

I know the past isn't always predictive, but in baseball it is not at all uncommon for players to play well above their norms for a 1-3 month stretch and then come back to earth, so that seemed the far more likely possibility.

I do believe he will produce comparably to Wheeler the past couple years. The Thor injury is obviously the potentially fatal flaw on this season. Need a 3rd good starter to step up for any potential 7 game series.
My main  
pjcas18 : 7/3/2020 10:56 am : link
concern (and it's not really a concern) with Stro is velocity.

I always prefer the high velo guys like JdG, Syndergaard, and wheeler to a location guy like Stro.

And it's not like Stro is a junk baller who can't crack 90, he can, he throws low 90's to 93/94, but I prefer the upper 90's guys.
I have no issues with him just try to be clear eyed about what he isnt  
Eric on Li : 7/3/2020 11:07 am : link
he has never been a high K pitcher (like you mentioned not a high velo guy) and he has been more of a ground ball pitcher, now on a team that doesn't have a good infield defense.

He has pitched well in some big games and played in a tough division. But at the end of the day he made 1 all star game and only once got any Cy Young votes. Nice pitcher, nowhere near the ace his stat line implied when acquired last year. Al Leiter, not Johan Santana.
Trout  
DanMetroMan : 7/3/2020 12:15 pm : link
Considering sitting out or having a partial season
RE: Trout  
Eric on Li : 7/3/2020 12:25 pm : link
In comment 14928349 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Considering sitting out or having a partial season


wife is pregnant I believe so I can tell you from recent experience his wife's obgyn and pediatrician are almost definitely telling him he would need to completely quarantine from his wife/newborn at least in the first 2 months before shots if he chooses to play. Or perhaps there's some plan worked out where he can quarantine away from them while getting tested and then re-enter their "pod", but obviously none of that would be easy to do in a season where there's going to be games every single day and travel.
Good analysis but I sort  
ryanmkeane : 7/3/2020 1:31 pm : link
of had the opposite reaction when they announced the 40/20 games thing. Playing the Braves, Nats, Phils, Yanks, Rays, Red Sox a bunch of times is just not great no matter how you slice it.
Between the Op and Ryan’s posts  
MetsAreBack : 7/5/2020 8:31 pm : link
Are we not playing the full al east but instead home / homes with the top 3 teams in the al East last year? That’s surprising if true but I Haven’t read anything

I had assumed 10 each against our division plus 3
each against Bos, TB, Blt and Tor and 8 against NYY for ratings and lack of travel purposes
Nats Rotation  
GF1080 : 7/5/2020 11:40 pm : link
They have Scherzer, Stras, Corbin so who cares if they lack depth in a 60 gamer.

We have deGrom and a 3rd in Stro. Syndergaard hurt and Wheeler gone with no offer kills us.
Top of the rotation is suspect after DeGrom  
Torrag : 7/6/2020 1:33 am : link
We've essentially got an ace and 5 3rd to 5th rotation slot guys. I don't think we've got enough to be a playoff team. Our division is just too tough.

The starting pitching staff is  
Metnut : 7/6/2020 11:04 am : link
really poor compared to the other contenders. We essentially have three 5th starters in our rotation. The organization's depth to replace these guys in the case of an injury is poor also. Thor and Degrom were the two guys this team needed to stay healthy and we're already without one of them.

Despite that, there's still a lot to like here. The bullpen and lineup have really high upside, both can be top 5 units if a number of things go right and should be above average units in any event. The addition of the DH is a really good thing for the Mets. They should be able to find ways to get extra ABs for Cespedes and Davis.

I think the team's true talent level without Thor is something along the 84-86 wins we saw lat year. In 60 games anything can happen so they absolutely have a shot to make it.
BTW, I think we should all be a bit more  
Metnut : 7/6/2020 11:07 am : link
frustrated on missing out last year. That was a really solid team that got really hot in the second half and just came up short.

Diaz and Familia sunk the season. If Diaz and Familia were even 80% of the guys we thought we were acquiring, they could've gone all the way. Does anyone really think the Nationals were that much better than the Mets? Those 6 post all-star break games between the teams were playoff level intensity and the Mets went blow for blow with them the whole way.
Yeah, Mets  
pjcas18 : 7/6/2020 11:12 am : link
fans should be more frustrated with past seasons. lol. So unhealthy.

move on.

There will be new frustrations to come.

I agree on the pitching staff, which is why I said the season will depend on pitchers pitching above their "weight class". Can Matz put a season together? Can Porcello (who is not old), pitch like his CY year? Does Lugo make sense in the rotation?

The season IMO rides on the pitching (starters and BP) - captain obvious?
the combo of Callaway and BP sunk the last 2 years  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2020 12:38 pm : link
obviously the players are the ones paid to perform on the field but Callaway was so bad. Almost every relief pitcher he got regressed under him from the year prior - and not a little bit - majorly. Diaz actually started the year ok but got worse the more time he spent with him. Not a single young guy developed. His usage patterns were questionable, he clearly had no ability to help talented guys make adjustments, and obviously for the entire team he did a terrible job creating an atmosphere of accountability and stability.

The rotation is most certainly a lot weaker this year than it's been in a while, but if the BP can turn things around from weakness to strength that will make a big difference. And over 60 games, SP depth is not as big of a deal. JDG, Stroman, Matz will probably make 35-40 of those starts. 10 more quality starts combined between Porcello/Wacha in the remaining 20-25 games is not inconceivable. Both had poor years last year and Porcello had 13 QS out of 32 starts while Wacha had 6 out of 24. A similar combined rate that would be about 7-10 QS in those remaining starts. Both were better in 17/18, so ideally 1 of them will have a bounce back year.

And if not, Lugo is another option if the BP is solid. Or maybe Peterson surprises and steps up.
Also some news on the sale  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2020 12:44 pm : link
Quote:
Charles Gasparino @CGasparino
SCOOP: 1st round bid indications for @Mets appear weak, likely below $2 billion-sources. Wilpons unlikely to sell at this stage unless something changes; bankers set July 9 for 1st round bids; hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen unlikely to participate-sources more @FoxBusiness

Charles Gasparino @CGasparino 1m
CLARIFICATION: Cohen unlikely to participate in FIRST ROUND; ppl close to the process believe he's still interested in buying team


A-Rod's group supposedly bid $2b, so I'd imagine that general range is where the first round comes in. I'd imagine the lower they are the better the chances Cohen ends up with the team.

Also sidenote - why does everything the Mets do have to be so thoroughly negotiated via the press? The Wilpons are so mickey mouse, and that's probably offensive to mickey mouse.
I believe  
DanMetroMan : 7/6/2020 1:02 pm : link
Harris/Blitzer remain the odds on favorites
I'm  
DanMetroMan : 7/6/2020 1:55 pm : link
not sure we see a full season. This is getting crazy.



Your Home Timeline
Evan Grant
@Evan_P_Grant
·
22s
Joey Gallo has tested positive for COVID-19, he confirms through Rangers. Tested on 6/27; received results 6/29. Took another nasal test; that was negative. Took another saliva test on July 2 & yesterday results came back positive. Must have 2 negs 24 HRs apart. Is asymptomatic.
You just are never going to build that perfect team  
ZGiants98 : 7/6/2020 3:02 pm : link
that is elite in all phases. People think you need an elite rotation, pen, lineup, defense, etc. to compete... In reality, the best teams dont have that. The Nats didn't have elite defense last year and their pen was dogs shit... and that was the best team in baseball.

The Mets have shifted from a team with a great rotation with 2-3 aces carrying them with little run support to a team that can just mash the shit out of ball now. You know what? That's ok. Yankee fans are still celebrating in the streets that they finally have a real ace for the playoffs. ONE ACE. Well we have that too.

This is still a solid team in spite of the Syndergaard loss. Excited to see this lineup on and every day bases. I just cant take this season too seriously. It should all be for fun. Players "cold streaks" can last longer than this whole season will be, even if we do get it in, so everything's going to be with a huge grain of salt for me. Still will be nice to see the guys again though.
I  
DanMetroMan : 7/6/2020 4:23 pm : link
find it hard to believe this season happens in totality. The sheer numbers of players already being shut down = crazy and we are just getting started. Sucks.
RE: I  
pjcas18 : 7/6/2020 4:27 pm : link
In comment 14929449 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
find it hard to believe this season happens in totality. The sheer numbers of players already being shut down = crazy and we are just getting started. Sucks.


I think they should let asymptomatic people play. Only those with symptoms should be quarantined. otherwise nothing will really and meaningfully happen without a vaccine.

treat it like the flu for the non-at-risk.

the flu sweeps through locker rooms every year in hockey and the players with symptoms stay home, get IV's, and then come back when healthy.
RE: I  
MetsAreBack : 7/6/2020 4:27 pm : link
In comment 14929449 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
find it hard to believe this season happens in totality. The sheer numbers of players already being shut down = crazy and we are just getting started. Sucks.


What % of MLB has been shut down? Yes, we will see more depth and minor leaguers in games this year but there is nothing about Gallo's story above that is "crazy" - it is quite often a 2-3 week 'injury' and glad to hear he's asymptomatic. Without all this testing most of these guys would have no idea something was up.
RE: RE: I  
MetsAreBack : 7/6/2020 4:29 pm : link
In comment 14929453 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14929449 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


find it hard to believe this season happens in totality. The sheer numbers of players already being shut down = crazy and we are just getting started. Sucks.



I think they should let asymptomatic people play. Only those with symptoms should be quarantined. otherwise nothing will really and meaningfully happen without a vaccine.

treat it like the flu for the non-at-risk.

the flu sweeps through locker rooms every year in hockey and the players with symptoms stay home, get IV's, and then come back when healthy.


I dont follow. the whole reason they are testing daily is to get guys out of lockerrooms and off the field ASAP if they test positive to prevent spread. We'll just have to live with seeing minor leaguers - otherwise out of jobs this year anyway- getting more playing time if/when your team loses a few starters to this at some point. Nobody said this season would be perfect, or anywhere close to it... but its a good thing they are finding these positive cases early, not a bad/crazy/scary thing.
I am saying  
pjcas18 : 7/6/2020 4:35 pm : link
there is question about asymptomatic people even being able to spread COVID and even if they can spread it how viral are they, so I wouldn't have asymptomatic players sit out. I'd let them play.

I want to see sports as much as everyone else, but it would be really shitty for example for the Mets to make the playoffs and then have a asymptomatic deGrom have to quarantine for 2 weeks and miss the playoffs.

I believe that is how they treat healthcare workers in some settings. Obviously a little different in importance of outcome, but same concept.
RE: RE: I  
DanMetroMan : 7/6/2020 4:47 pm : link
In comment 14929454 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14929449 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


find it hard to believe this season happens in totality. The sheer numbers of players already being shut down = crazy and we are just getting started. Sucks.



What % of MLB has been shut down? Yes, we will see more depth and minor leaguers in games this year but there is nothing about Gallo's story above that is "crazy" - it is quite often a 2-3 week 'injury' and glad to hear he's asymptomatic. Without all this testing most of these guys would have no idea something was up.


Joey Gallo is out, Freeman is out with "substantial" symptoms, multiple players (including Moncada) are being held out but due to the laws players have to give consent to their results being revaled.
..  
DanMetroMan : 7/6/2020 4:48 pm : link

Grant McAuley
@grantmcauley
·
5h
#Braves Nick Markakis on making his decision to opt-out: "I was excited to get back to playing just as much as everybody else... I think the biggest thing is I talked to Freddie Freeman and just hearing the way he sounded on the phone just opened my eyes.


And yeah it's "crazy" knowing suddenly your best P or 3 key players could all be shut down out of the blue in a 60 game season.
how do you tell who is asymptomatic vs. pre-symptomatic?  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2020 5:08 pm : link
there's a lot that's still in question but stopping people from unknowingly spreading the virus is the entire purpose of surveillance testing.

As far as the season goes, I guess we will see. I have a lot more faith in the NHL's plan than the other 2 leagues at the moment. There is a roadmap to safely play baseball (KBO and a few other leagues) but those leagues don't have as many complexities to have to mitigate. Just cross our fingers and hope.
see i guess i've mentally prepared for that possibility for a while  
MetsAreBack : 7/6/2020 5:12 pm : link
there are lots of reasons people think they'll be a big "*" on this season no matter what. Its not crazy to me because its to be expected for the next couple of years.

I asked you what % are out with it and you gave me 3-4 random anecdotes of specific players.. I do hear you many will be kept confidential though.

This still beats no sports.

PJ i hear you but guys will have to quarantine when they get it. Too many unknowns and too many people in this country talking about worst case, severe downside case scenarios. God forbid one sports figure somewhere does die or goes on a ventilator... we've not shut down sports for accidents before, but we would for this. And legally i dont blame the leagues for taking every precaution imaginable.

RE: how do you tell who is asymptomatic vs. pre-symptomatic?  
pjcas18 : 7/6/2020 5:16 pm : link
In comment 14929486 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
there's a lot that's still in question but stopping people from unknowingly spreading the virus is the entire purpose of surveillance testing.

As far as the season goes, I guess we will see. I have a lot more faith in the NHL's plan than the other 2 leagues at the moment. There is a roadmap to safely play baseball (KBO and a few other leagues) but those leagues don't have as many complexities to have to mitigate. Just cross our fingers and hope.


You don't know. Anyone not displaying symptoms gets treated as asymptomatic. Once they show symptoms you sideline them. Maintain social distancing to the extent it's feasible, practice good hygiene and disinfecting, and deal with it.

Or don't play.
if players are only pulled with symptoms why bother testing?  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2020 5:29 pm : link
there's a reason testing is a key component of every leagues protocols to restart - it is to catch players from unknowingly spreading it. If your plan is to let players spread it until they show symptoms then the only thing that is going to happen is a shutdown, and it's likely going to be pretty quick because so far it seems like most teams have had at least 1-2 people test positive and not all were showing symptoms.

From the multiple Braves who tested positive I believe at least 2 of them presently had no symptoms. Without testing and without pulling them from team plane/team facility/etc it would only be a matter of time before a huge % of an entire team gets it and forces a shutdown or major scheduling disruption.
Which is worse  
pjcas18 : 7/6/2020 5:52 pm : link
a major shut down once (if it happens) before you get into the season or a slow death.

Mets have hardest schedule in baseball  
ZGiants98 : 7/6/2020 6:32 pm : link
based on 2019 records.

So that's fun.
Here it is  
ZGiants98 : 7/6/2020 6:33 pm : link
3 vs Braves
3 at Red sox
2 vs Red sox
4 at Braves
2 at Nats
3 vs Marlins
4 vs Nats
3 at Philly
4 at Marlins
3 vs Yankees
3 vs Marlins
3 at Yankees
2 at Orioles
4 vs Philly
2 vs Orioles
3 at Blue Jays
3 at Philly
3 at Braves
3 at Ray's
4 at Nats
Or even more specific.  
ZGiants98 : 7/6/2020 6:43 pm : link
- July 24-26: vs. Atlanta Braves (3 games)
- July 27-28: @ Boston Red Sox (2 games)
- July 29-30: vs. Red Sox (2 games)
- July 31-Aug. 3: @ Braves (4 games)
- Aug. 4-5: @ Washington Nationals (2 games)
- Aug. 6: OFF
- Aug. 7-9: vs. Miami Marlins (3 games)
- Aug. 10-13: vs. Nationals (4 games)
- Aug. 14-16: @ Philadelphia Phillies (3 games)
- Aug. 17-20: @ Marlins (4 games)
- Aug. 21-23: vs. New York Yankees (3 games)
- Aug. 24: OFF
- Aug. 25-27: vs. Marlins (3 games)
- Aug. 28-30: @ Yankees (3 games)
- Aug. 31: OFF
- Sept. 1-2: @ Baltimore Orioles (2 games)
- Sept. 3: OFF
- Sept. 4-7: vs. Phillies (4 games)
- Sept. 8-9: vs. Orioles (2 games)
- Sept. 10: OFF
- Sept. 11-13: @ Toronto Blue Jays (3 games)
- Sept. 14: OFF
- Sept. 15-17: @ Phillies (3 games)
- Sept. 18-20: vs. Braves (3 games)
- Sept. 21-23: vs. Tampa Bay Rays (3 games)
- Sept. 24-27: @ Nationals (4 games)
The first set isnt right home VS  
ZGiants98 : 7/6/2020 6:44 pm : link
away.
Going to be super weird not needing to use our bench as much  
ZGiants98 : 7/6/2020 6:49 pm : link
anymore.

Not a fan AL ball, but this should still be interesting. Would probably go:

1.) Nimmo CF
2.) Alonso 1B
3.) McNeil 3B
4.) Cespedes LF
5.) Conforto RF
6.) Davis DH
7.) Cano 2B
8.) Ramos C
9.) Rosario SS

Ridiculous balance.
.  
pjcas18 : 7/6/2020 6:56 pm : link
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
·
1m
The Angels and Marlins have the toughest strength of schedule based off opponents’ 2019 win percentage (.534), per MLB Network.
RE: Which is worse  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2020 7:19 pm : link
In comment 14929515 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
a major shut down once (if it happens) before you get into the season or a slow death.


Either would suck. I think I'd choose the slow death hoping something changes in the extra time that helps avoid the slow death. Ex. the FDA just approved emergency use for a point of care test that has a result in 15 minutes and will supposedly be able to do 2m/week by September.

Who knows, maybe they have a contingency plan to bubble all the teams somewhere less impacted as the season moves along like the NHL/NBA are attempting.

Unlike every other sport there is a template to play baseball safely so starting with that seems obvious. This is perhaps the first time I've agreed with Boras on anything other than making fun of the Wilpons for being cheap.

Quote:
After months of conference calls and Zoom meetings with clients and health experts, baseball’s most powerful agent is convinced that games can safely return without fans even as cases of Covid-19 surge in the U.S.

“Unlike other sports, with baseball we have an actual trial and model in Korea, Japan and Taiwan,” Boras said in an interview. “They’ve been able to play games without any hospitalizations to any of their players.”

Scott Boras Says He’s Confident About Safety as Baseball Resumes - ( New Window )
RE: .  
ZGiants98 : 7/7/2020 12:28 am : link
In comment 14929559 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
·
1m
The Angels and Marlins have the toughest strength of schedule based off opponents’ 2019 win percentage (.534), per MLB Network.


That would make sense. Guess Twitter got it wrong.
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