Was up early and browsing our projected roster and the rosters of our 7 other opponents, and I have to say, we're in pretty good shape.
While Syndergaard is a massive blow, our lineup should be the best of this group of teams. Not a single easy out in our lineup, and our bench depth should make that the case on pretty much every night, with the exception when Ramos is given a rest and Nido or someone else is starting.
But the top of our rotation depth is solid, we have Jake and Stroman at the top, and our Bullpen, especially if Betances returns to form should be outstanding.
The Braves and Yankees are formidable, but the Nats really don't look all that scary with Rendon gone, lack of depth in the rotation and a weak bench and bullpen; the Phillies also have weaknesses and are a middle of the road team. The Marlins barely have a recognizable player.
On the AL side, Rays have a very solid rotation and bullpen, their lineup has weaknesses though. The Red Sox, even without Betts, seems pretty damn good, but Rotation Depth and an awful bullpen could hold them back. The Blue Jays are young, probably not ready yet. The orioles also barely have a recognizable name.
Bottom Line is the Mets in my opinion have the best Lineup, Bullpen and Bench in their league, and their rotation is solid despite losses of Wheeler and Syndergaard. If we can get through the beginning of games in good shape, we should be in the best position to win in the later innings.
That's my early take.
It could do those things for every team, but for a roster that lost about 10fwar of SP from last year to this year and had a BP that sabotaged their season last year, those are big helps. It would have taken a lot of good luck for this starting rotation to get through 162 games in good shape for a postseason after Thor went down.
I'm intrigued to see if Wacha or Porcello can get hot in a limited fashion. You really only need 5-6 good starts from either. Who knows maybe we even get to see Peterson throw a few games.
The biggest questions by far are in the BP, can either of Familia or Diaz go lights out? In a 60 game season, that means they are likely to only throw about 20 innings each. It is not inconceivable for either to pitch to a sub-2 ERA in that kind of short window.
Otherwise I see the Mets with deGrom being his usual self, Stro who is a better #3 than a #2 and a hole left by Syndergaard.
I'm not saying get hung up on #1 or #2 or #3 etc starter, but bottom line is you need 3 starters that project as net positive starters and then hope your 4 and 5 are at worst net neutral.
I also think Stroman gets a little underrated on here because his worst "season" was his time with the Mets.
He pitched to an average 3.7 FIP over almost 6 years in the AL East. Pitchers are "supposed to" improve when switching to the NL. He did not.
Anyway, I think the Mets lineup will be fine, but the Mets season hinges on the starters not named JdG or Stro and the bullpen.
So last year, he was either due for some regression when we traded for him because his performance had been so good YTD, or he had taken a step forward to being an elite pitcher.
I know the past isn't always predictive, but in baseball it is not at all uncommon for players to play well above their norms for a 1-3 month stretch and then come back to earth, so that seemed the far more likely possibility.
I do believe he will produce comparably to Wheeler the past couple years. The Thor injury is obviously the potentially fatal flaw on this season. Need a 3rd good starter to step up for any potential 7 game series.
I always prefer the high velo guys like JdG, Syndergaard, and wheeler to a location guy like Stro.
And it's not like Stro is a junk baller who can't crack 90, he can, he throws low 90's to 93/94, but I prefer the upper 90's guys.
He has pitched well in some big games and played in a tough division. But at the end of the day he made 1 all star game and only once got any Cy Young votes. Nice pitcher, nowhere near the ace his stat line implied when acquired last year. Al Leiter, not Johan Santana.
wife is pregnant I believe so I can tell you from recent experience his wife's obgyn and pediatrician are almost definitely telling him he would need to completely quarantine from his wife/newborn at least in the first 2 months before shots if he chooses to play. Or perhaps there's some plan worked out where he can quarantine away from them while getting tested and then re-enter their "pod", but obviously none of that would be easy to do in a season where there's going to be games every single day and travel.
I had assumed 10 each against our division plus 3
each against Bos, TB, Blt and Tor and 8 against NYY for ratings and lack of travel purposes
We have deGrom and a 3rd in Stro. Syndergaard hurt and Wheeler gone with no offer kills us.
Despite that, there's still a lot to like here. The bullpen and lineup have really high upside, both can be top 5 units if a number of things go right and should be above average units in any event. The addition of the DH is a really good thing for the Mets. They should be able to find ways to get extra ABs for Cespedes and Davis.
I think the team's true talent level without Thor is something along the 84-86 wins we saw lat year. In 60 games anything can happen so they absolutely have a shot to make it.
Diaz and Familia sunk the season. If Diaz and Familia were even 80% of the guys we thought we were acquiring, they could've gone all the way. Does anyone really think the Nationals were that much better than the Mets? Those 6 post all-star break games between the teams were playoff level intensity and the Mets went blow for blow with them the whole way.
move on.
There will be new frustrations to come.
I agree on the pitching staff, which is why I said the season will depend on pitchers pitching above their "weight class". Can Matz put a season together? Can Porcello (who is not old), pitch like his CY year? Does Lugo make sense in the rotation?
The season IMO rides on the pitching (starters and BP) - captain obvious?
The rotation is most certainly a lot weaker this year than it's been in a while, but if the BP can turn things around from weakness to strength that will make a big difference. And over 60 games, SP depth is not as big of a deal. JDG, Stroman, Matz will probably make 35-40 of those starts. 10 more quality starts combined between Porcello/Wacha in the remaining 20-25 games is not inconceivable. Both had poor years last year and Porcello had 13 QS out of 32 starts while Wacha had 6 out of 24. A similar combined rate that would be about 7-10 QS in those remaining starts. Both were better in 17/18, so ideally 1 of them will have a bounce back year.
And if not, Lugo is another option if the BP is solid. Or maybe Peterson surprises and steps up.
SCOOP: 1st round bid indications for @Mets appear weak, likely below $2 billion-sources. Wilpons unlikely to sell at this stage unless something changes; bankers set July 9 for 1st round bids; hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen unlikely to participate-sources more @FoxBusiness
Charles Gasparino @CGasparino 1m
CLARIFICATION: Cohen unlikely to participate in FIRST ROUND; ppl close to the process believe he's still interested in buying team
A-Rod's group supposedly bid $2b, so I'd imagine that general range is where the first round comes in. I'd imagine the lower they are the better the chances Cohen ends up with the team.
Also sidenote - why does everything the Mets do have to be so thoroughly negotiated via the press? The Wilpons are so mickey mouse, and that's probably offensive to mickey mouse.
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Evan Grant
@Evan_P_Grant
·
22s
Joey Gallo has tested positive for COVID-19, he confirms through Rangers. Tested on 6/27; received results 6/29. Took another nasal test; that was negative. Took another saliva test on July 2 & yesterday results came back positive. Must have 2 negs 24 HRs apart. Is asymptomatic.
The Mets have shifted from a team with a great rotation with 2-3 aces carrying them with little run support to a team that can just mash the shit out of ball now. You know what? That's ok. Yankee fans are still celebrating in the streets that they finally have a real ace for the playoffs. ONE ACE. Well we have that too.
This is still a solid team in spite of the Syndergaard loss. Excited to see this lineup on and every day bases. I just cant take this season too seriously. It should all be for fun. Players "cold streaks" can last longer than this whole season will be, even if we do get it in, so everything's going to be with a huge grain of salt for me. Still will be nice to see the guys again though.
I think they should let asymptomatic people play. Only those with symptoms should be quarantined. otherwise nothing will really and meaningfully happen without a vaccine.
treat it like the flu for the non-at-risk.
the flu sweeps through locker rooms every year in hockey and the players with symptoms stay home, get IV's, and then come back when healthy.
What % of MLB has been shut down? Yes, we will see more depth and minor leaguers in games this year but there is nothing about Gallo's story above that is "crazy" - it is quite often a 2-3 week 'injury' and glad to hear he's asymptomatic. Without all this testing most of these guys would have no idea something was up.
Quote:
find it hard to believe this season happens in totality. The sheer numbers of players already being shut down = crazy and we are just getting started. Sucks.
I think they should let asymptomatic people play. Only those with symptoms should be quarantined. otherwise nothing will really and meaningfully happen without a vaccine.
treat it like the flu for the non-at-risk.
the flu sweeps through locker rooms every year in hockey and the players with symptoms stay home, get IV's, and then come back when healthy.
I dont follow. the whole reason they are testing daily is to get guys out of lockerrooms and off the field ASAP if they test positive to prevent spread. We'll just have to live with seeing minor leaguers - otherwise out of jobs this year anyway- getting more playing time if/when your team loses a few starters to this at some point. Nobody said this season would be perfect, or anywhere close to it... but its a good thing they are finding these positive cases early, not a bad/crazy/scary thing.
I want to see sports as much as everyone else, but it would be really shitty for example for the Mets to make the playoffs and then have a asymptomatic deGrom have to quarantine for 2 weeks and miss the playoffs.
I believe that is how they treat healthcare workers in some settings. Obviously a little different in importance of outcome, but same concept.
Quote:
find it hard to believe this season happens in totality. The sheer numbers of players already being shut down = crazy and we are just getting started. Sucks.
What % of MLB has been shut down? Yes, we will see more depth and minor leaguers in games this year but there is nothing about Gallo's story above that is "crazy" - it is quite often a 2-3 week 'injury' and glad to hear he's asymptomatic. Without all this testing most of these guys would have no idea something was up.
Joey Gallo is out, Freeman is out with "substantial" symptoms, multiple players (including Moncada) are being held out but due to the laws players have to give consent to their results being revaled.
Grant McAuley
@grantmcauley
·
5h
#Braves Nick Markakis on making his decision to opt-out: "I was excited to get back to playing just as much as everybody else... I think the biggest thing is I talked to Freddie Freeman and just hearing the way he sounded on the phone just opened my eyes.
And yeah it's "crazy" knowing suddenly your best P or 3 key players could all be shut down out of the blue in a 60 game season.
As far as the season goes, I guess we will see. I have a lot more faith in the NHL's plan than the other 2 leagues at the moment. There is a roadmap to safely play baseball (KBO and a few other leagues) but those leagues don't have as many complexities to have to mitigate. Just cross our fingers and hope.
I asked you what % are out with it and you gave me 3-4 random anecdotes of specific players.. I do hear you many will be kept confidential though.
This still beats no sports.
PJ i hear you but guys will have to quarantine when they get it. Too many unknowns and too many people in this country talking about worst case, severe downside case scenarios. God forbid one sports figure somewhere does die or goes on a ventilator... we've not shut down sports for accidents before, but we would for this. And legally i dont blame the leagues for taking every precaution imaginable.
As far as the season goes, I guess we will see. I have a lot more faith in the NHL's plan than the other 2 leagues at the moment. There is a roadmap to safely play baseball (KBO and a few other leagues) but those leagues don't have as many complexities to have to mitigate. Just cross our fingers and hope.
You don't know. Anyone not displaying symptoms gets treated as asymptomatic. Once they show symptoms you sideline them. Maintain social distancing to the extent it's feasible, practice good hygiene and disinfecting, and deal with it.
Or don't play.
From the multiple Braves who tested positive I believe at least 2 of them presently had no symptoms. Without testing and without pulling them from team plane/team facility/etc it would only be a matter of time before a huge % of an entire team gets it and forces a shutdown or major scheduling disruption.
So that's fun.
3 at Red sox
2 vs Red sox
4 at Braves
2 at Nats
3 vs Marlins
4 vs Nats
3 at Philly
4 at Marlins
3 vs Yankees
3 vs Marlins
3 at Yankees
2 at Orioles
4 vs Philly
2 vs Orioles
3 at Blue Jays
3 at Philly
3 at Braves
3 at Ray's
4 at Nats
- July 27-28: @ Boston Red Sox (2 games)
- July 29-30: vs. Red Sox (2 games)
- July 31-Aug. 3: @ Braves (4 games)
- Aug. 4-5: @ Washington Nationals (2 games)
- Aug. 6: OFF
- Aug. 7-9: vs. Miami Marlins (3 games)
- Aug. 10-13: vs. Nationals (4 games)
- Aug. 14-16: @ Philadelphia Phillies (3 games)
- Aug. 17-20: @ Marlins (4 games)
- Aug. 21-23: vs. New York Yankees (3 games)
- Aug. 24: OFF
- Aug. 25-27: vs. Marlins (3 games)
- Aug. 28-30: @ Yankees (3 games)
- Aug. 31: OFF
- Sept. 1-2: @ Baltimore Orioles (2 games)
- Sept. 3: OFF
- Sept. 4-7: vs. Phillies (4 games)
- Sept. 8-9: vs. Orioles (2 games)
- Sept. 10: OFF
- Sept. 11-13: @ Toronto Blue Jays (3 games)
- Sept. 14: OFF
- Sept. 15-17: @ Phillies (3 games)
- Sept. 18-20: vs. Braves (3 games)
- Sept. 21-23: vs. Tampa Bay Rays (3 games)
- Sept. 24-27: @ Nationals (4 games)
Not a fan AL ball, but this should still be interesting. Would probably go:
1.) Nimmo CF
2.) Alonso 1B
3.) McNeil 3B
4.) Cespedes LF
5.) Conforto RF
6.) Davis DH
7.) Cano 2B
8.) Ramos C
9.) Rosario SS
Ridiculous balance.
@FabianArdaya
·
1m
The Angels and Marlins have the toughest strength of schedule based off opponents’ 2019 win percentage (.534), per MLB Network.
Either would suck. I think I'd choose the slow death hoping something changes in the extra time that helps avoid the slow death. Ex. the FDA just approved emergency use for a point of care test that has a result in 15 minutes and will supposedly be able to do 2m/week by September.
Who knows, maybe they have a contingency plan to bubble all the teams somewhere less impacted as the season moves along like the NHL/NBA are attempting.
Unlike every other sport there is a template to play baseball safely so starting with that seems obvious. This is perhaps the first time I've agreed with Boras on anything other than making fun of the Wilpons for being cheap.
“Unlike other sports, with baseball we have an actual trial and model in Korea, Japan and Taiwan,” Boras said in an interview. “They’ve been able to play games without any hospitalizations to any of their players.”
Scott Boras Says He’s Confident About Safety as Baseball Resumes - ( New Window )
@FabianArdaya
·
1m
The Angels and Marlins have the toughest strength of schedule based off opponents’ 2019 win percentage (.534), per MLB Network.
That would make sense. Guess Twitter got it wrong.