But I go back & forth. Sometimes I'm optimistic, other times I'm not.
The NBA, to me, seems like the one most likely to go off because of the 'bubble'. I don't believe MLB or NFL is having one so these guys are going to be out & about in the community so they're much more likely to get COVID-19.
the NBA is definitely going to give it a go and has the best shot of the 3 to make it happen since they are isolating the locations. But if there's a big setback there its going to snowball to the other 2 sports. Baseball will go back first IIRC, but there's a lot of smoke with star players not being sure about it so who knows.
I think baseball will make it through their 60 game season.
i think we will. The ball is rolling on all of this so it would take a pretty major issue for any of them to shutdown.
Also we have a pretty good idea of the best way to prevent the spread. Masks, limiting contact, smaller groups, etc..
The spikie in the country is mostly areas that ignored all of those things. And for basketball and hockey they will be in a "Bubble" which will help immensely with limiting people catching it but also with contact tracing if someone does.. Not to mention all of the precautions and money that these leagues will spend to keep everyone as healthy as possible. I mean we are def going to have some teams get screwed when "insert star player name here" gets covid and they lose them for a playoff run or a shortened baseball season, but not much you can do about that.
as they were the first league to shut it down and everyone followed suit afterwards. This virus did not feel real to me until the night the NBA postponed their season. I believe the NBA will set the mark and set the tone this time around as well. If they can't survive in a bubble then I'm afraid all bets are off for any type of team sports in 2020.
till October or November to start the season. We are currently in a huge spike with camps set to open in a few weeks. I will bet that some cities will not allow the NFL games come September and the league will get canned. Or a team will have a bunch of positive tests and have to close up.
I feel like we're entering an extremely important couple of weeks
While there has been a huge increase in cases over the last 2 weeks, we have not seen deaths increase correspondingly YET.
I know, I know, "Deaths are a lagging indicator..." but it's been about 2 weeks since the start of the rising cases across the nation and we've hit our lowest level of deaths in months.
Florida in particular has been "out of control" with cases and is up to about as many cases as we had in NY during the peak of the pandemic here, yet their high in deaths in a day recently is about 70 earlier this weak. NY was seeing about 700 people die at a day at the peak of the pandemic here.
If the death toll does not rise in the next 2 weeks, then I believe everyone will feel like the recent surge in cases will simply be due to more testing and the decreasing death rate will have people feeling better. This will be something government and corporations highlight to push us back to normalizing despite the lack of a vaccine.
But we'll see if that "lag" hits and deaths rise again in the next 10 or so days. If that's the case, I think the NBA's plan atleast would be derailed and probably MLB's too. Really huge couple of weeks for our country coming up.
Happens when the first athlete (or someone on the team’s staff) tests positive, gets ill or dies? It just seems like a nightmare to plan for all these possibilities/scheduling changes if a full team needs to be quarantined not to mention the athletes will start resisting putting their lives on the line. I can’t see any of the pro sports seasons progressing in full
Happens when the first athlete (or someone on the team’s staff) tests positive, gets ill or dies? It just seems like a nightmare to plan for all these possibilities/scheduling changes if a full team needs to be quarantined not to mention the athletes will start resisting putting their lives on the line. I can’t see any of the pro sports seasons progressing in full
Statistically, a professional athlete puts as much of their life on the line every day getting into a car as they are from Covid. As far as long term lung damage, its still quite rare and fairly inconclusive at this stage but of course, every athlete should and needs to do whats best for them.
Those who have already made their fortunes are in much better shape than those with expected 5-10 year careers that would otherwise be making unemployment wages.
Anyway, to the OP, this question is posed on BBI every day or two and everyone's opinions by now are well known. I have more hope for professional sports, which to date are working in Europe and in South Korea... than i do for college athletics which wont have the degree of testing, relatively smaller and homogenous population set to control for, and most importantly, the risk/reward trade-off that exists in professional leagues (e.g., there's not enough monetary incentive for college athletes to risk it)
People are going to get the virus, it's not going anywhere for a while
Deaths and hospitalization rates are currently not following the rise in number of positive cases, and it's not even clear if asymptomatic people who test positive can even transmit the disease to others according to the CDC
People are going to get the virus, it's not going anywhere for a while
Deaths and hospitalization rates are currently not following the rise in number of positive cases, and it's not even clear if asymptomatic people who test positive can even transmit the disease to others according to the CDC
Agree and I am waiting on this. Yes there are many more tests which is attributed to more cases but I also hope it is because people are doing a better job protecting the most vulnerable (including themselves). The next month should give a lot of clarity moving forward.
I think with sports a big part is going to be the media and social media. I do wonder if players and staff start testing positive and some die the pressure may be too intense to continue.
People are going to get the virus, it's not going anywhere for a while
Deaths and hospitalization rates are currently not following the rise in number of positive cases, and it's not even clear if asymptomatic people who test positive can even transmit the disease to others according to the CDC
Life goes on
Unless of course, you die from it
In what universe does the comment “life goes on”, not acknowledge people die from this virus.
Strictly by the numbers, you only need 10 guys on the court... and I’ll bet most of these guys are playing every day, at least in shoot arounds anyway.
Basketball (and I mean this in a positive way) is like an addiction. Most of these guys have been on the playgrounds everyday since they could walk, in rain, snow, hot, cold, whatever ... If Basketball can’t come back, no sport can.
And about 96% of fans responding (commenting) in those 3 reporters twitter accounts to todays news about tests feel there is little chance there will be any baseball in the year of 2020.
RE: Baseball is outdoors and more space between players. But they will
have to work out something to make the dugouts more spacious.
They can sit in the stands over the dugout. I don't think there is any way fans will be in the stands, and if by some miracle they do, they will be spread out and away from the lower part.
RE: Been reading twitter accounts Rosenthal, Jon Heyman, Buster Onley
And about 96% of fans responding (commenting) in those 3 reporters twitter accounts to todays news about tests feel there is little chance there will be any baseball in the year of 2020.
And nothing spells data and science like twitter feedback...
With all sports, I'm in a 'I'll believe it when I see it' mindset. I want there to be sports, but not at the expense of safety & just pure common sense.
Mike Francesa
@MikeFrancesa
·
21h
Starting to get the feeling that many owners are having serious second thoughts. Even as overwhelming greedy as they are.
But each day, I am less confident in baseball. You are seeing more players opt out of 2020 and who can blame some of these guys.
As someone said above, these next two weeks are going to be key. Especially when you see more confirmed cases as a result of this past 4th of July weekend.
The only reason why I think there will be Pro Sports
While there has been a huge increase in cases over the last 2 weeks, we have not seen deaths increase correspondingly YET.
I know, I know, "Deaths are a lagging indicator..." but it's been about 2 weeks since the start of the rising cases across the nation and we've hit our lowest level of deaths in months.
Florida in particular has been "out of control" with cases and is up to about as many cases as we had in NY during the peak of the pandemic here, yet their high in deaths in a day recently is about 70 earlier this weak. NY was seeing about 700 people die at a day at the peak of the pandemic here.
If the death toll does not rise in the next 2 weeks, then I believe everyone will feel like the recent surge in cases will simply be due to more testing and the decreasing death rate will have people feeling better. This will be something government and corporations highlight to push us back to normalizing despite the lack of a vaccine.
But we'll see if that "lag" hits and deaths rise again in the next 10 or so days. If that's the case, I think the NBA's plan atleast would be derailed and probably MLB's too. Really huge couple of weeks for our country coming up.
I'm not sure how Texas' hospitalization rate compares with NY's from March/April, but they have several hospitals nearing capacity and they are preparing sites (NRG Stadium?) for overflow capacity. Hopefully, Dr's have learned enough to minimize death even from those that end up in ICU, but as you said, we'll find out in the next week or so. I think Arizona is facing a similar situation.
Not sure why Florida has (seemingly) avoided a significant increase in hospitalizations compared to TX/AZ. Is it a younger demographic getting infected? Or are they just lagging Tx/Az by a week or 2?
RE: I see the NBA and NHL definitely giving it a go
But each day, I am less confident in baseball. You are seeing more players opt out of 2020 and who can blame some of these guys.
As someone said above, these next two weeks are going to be key. Especially when you see more confirmed cases as a result of this past 4th of July weekend.
It would be ironic if the sport with the least contact and the lowest risk of spreading (played outdoors) is the only one that doesn't give it a go.
How often are 2 baseball players even within 6 ft of each other outside of the batter/catcher/umpire (dare I say its a good opportunity to replace the HP ump...)? You can even have all IFs wear N95 or even just cloth masks. Not like they're running hard...
I don't know about basketball/baseball because I dont care about them
But each day, I am less confident in baseball. You are seeing more players opt out of 2020 and who can blame some of these guys.
As someone said above, these next two weeks are going to be key. Especially when you see more confirmed cases as a result of this past 4th of July weekend.
It would be ironic if the sport with the least contact and the lowest risk of spreading (played outdoors) is the only one that doesn't give it a go.
How often are 2 baseball players even within 6 ft of each other outside of the batter/catcher/umpire (dare I say its a good opportunity to replace the HP ump...)? You can even have all IFs wear N95 or even just cloth masks. Not like they're running hard...
yup baseball golf and tennis are three sports that have the most inherent distancing while capable of being played outdoors where the risk of transmission is much less. Hockey football and basketball are a lot tougher to manage as sports with a lot of actual and close contact. Soccer would also fall into that bucket but given it’s outdoors and the field is relatively large it’s less risky than US football
RE: The only reason why I think there will be Pro Sports
But each day, I am less confident in baseball. You are seeing more players opt out of 2020 and who can blame some of these guys.
As someone said above, these next two weeks are going to be key. Especially when you see more confirmed cases as a result of this past 4th of July weekend.
It would be ironic if the sport with the least contact and the lowest risk of spreading (played outdoors) is the only one that doesn't give it a go.
How often are 2 baseball players even within 6 ft of each other outside of the batter/catcher/umpire (dare I say its a good opportunity to replace the HP ump...)? You can even have all IFs wear N95 or even just cloth masks. Not like they're running hard...
You bring up a great point. I was speaking more along the lines from a financial standpoint. Guys who have a a ton of money in the bank, putting themselves/families at risk for a third of their pay. I feel bad for a guy like Trout (who is the face of baseball) as he is torn between playing and being there for his wife during the birth of their first child.
Professional Football, Baseball, Basketball, Hockey will play abbreviated schedules including playoffs this year. The only question is “will there be fans in the stands?” Most Americans would rather watch sports on TV than have no sports. The virus will be with us for awhile and we all need to adapt , not give up or wait for a vaccine for everyone. College sports are more difficult go call, but I can see some big time conferences playing, again with the question of whether or not there will be fans in the stands.
Baseball, I have the most confidence in starting up for some reason. Football, I have the least amount of confidence seeing ANY action. I think if there was any football it will be a late start. Maybe we're looking at a 9 or 10 game season, at best. I highly, highly doubt it though.
Hockey is up in the air, as is basketball, in my opinion.
If at the very least one of these sports finishes their season I will consider that a win after having nothing to watch besides Captain Marvel or whatever liquid nitrogen shit is spewing from Netflix's water fountain these days.
cam always be counted on for a stupid post. Yes baseball and basketball players put their lives on the line.You cannot make up such inane shit. Really dangerous sports.
cam always be counted on for a stupid post. Yes baseball and basketball players put their lives on the line.You cannot make up such inane shit. Really dangerous sports.
are you ok? Forget your meds this morning?
The NHL has the best set up right now - I think they finish the year
the NBA has done a lot of really interesting things but they unknowingly put their bubble in a hot spot which will be a challenge. FL doesn't publicize their hospitalization data but they are nearing ICU capacity.
The NBA's bubble seems super high tech (everyone has an electronic bracelet to activate their room and also track that they are correctly tracking their own symptoms and temperature daily, plus lots of testing for anyone presymptomatic or asymptomatic) - so hopefully it works as a short term solution.
Baseball in theory should be the easiest sport to figure out because it's outdoors, non-contact, and other countries have shown it's possible. The problem is the other countries have a lot more control of the spread among the rest of their populations. With a longer season, no bubble, travel, and hiccups already with their testing delays I think MLB is in for a rocky ride.
The NFL is the most impossible to predict. On their side they have time and money. Against them is that they are a close quarters sport and their timing is in cooler weather in most of the country. I'd guess their plan will end up needing to be a lot more extreme than we realize in terms of how much separation the players need from the outside world. Though there may be a rapid point of care test by September, which would make things a lot easier for all the leagues.
The biggest threat to all these sports is not their plans but the rest of us in society. If everyone could be responsible and get the thing under control each sports plan will have an infinitely better chance succeeding as they have in other countries. A huge reason why the NHL's plan may succeed is that they went to Canada where things are generally much more stable right now.
the NBA has done a lot of really interesting things but they unknowingly put their bubble in a hot spot which will be a challenge. FL doesn't publicize their hospitalization data but they are nearing ICU capacity.
If you're in a bubble, in theory it shouldnt matter whats going on in your geography. In fact, one could argue going to a spot with less infection incents more casual behavior and bad decisions. I've read the NBA is going to be really strict about enforcing safety - their demands of the media are borderline draconian anyway.
Regardless, ICU capacity shouldnt in theory matter much to NBA players... but we'll see. Also 3 weeks from now is an eternity, either way, with this virus. I have a hard time believing Toronto will adequately social distance during Leafs and other NHL playoff games by the way.
As far as football goes, I have a feeling we won't be seeing a whole season if much of one at all.
The NBA, to me, seems like the one most likely to go off because of the 'bubble'. I don't believe MLB or NFL is having one so these guys are going to be out & about in the community so they're much more likely to get COVID-19.
The NBA, I don't follow these days - wake me up when the Knicks are relevant again.
Also we have a pretty good idea of the best way to prevent the spread. Masks, limiting contact, smaller groups, etc..
The spikie in the country is mostly areas that ignored all of those things. And for basketball and hockey they will be in a "Bubble" which will help immensely with limiting people catching it but also with contact tracing if someone does.. Not to mention all of the precautions and money that these leagues will spend to keep everyone as healthy as possible. I mean we are def going to have some teams get screwed when "insert star player name here" gets covid and they lose them for a playoff run or a shortened baseball season, but not much you can do about that.
As far as football goes, I have a feeling we won't be seeing a whole season if much of one at all.
Because not playing and getting to a certain amount of regular season and playoff games greatly effects the income and the salary cap...
I know, I know, "Deaths are a lagging indicator..." but it's been about 2 weeks since the start of the rising cases across the nation and we've hit our lowest level of deaths in months.
Florida in particular has been "out of control" with cases and is up to about as many cases as we had in NY during the peak of the pandemic here, yet their high in deaths in a day recently is about 70 earlier this weak. NY was seeing about 700 people die at a day at the peak of the pandemic here.
If the death toll does not rise in the next 2 weeks, then I believe everyone will feel like the recent surge in cases will simply be due to more testing and the decreasing death rate will have people feeling better. This will be something government and corporations highlight to push us back to normalizing despite the lack of a vaccine.
But we'll see if that "lag" hits and deaths rise again in the next 10 or so days. If that's the case, I think the NBA's plan atleast would be derailed and probably MLB's too. Really huge couple of weeks for our country coming up.
Statistically, a professional athlete puts as much of their life on the line every day getting into a car as they are from Covid. As far as long term lung damage, its still quite rare and fairly inconclusive at this stage but of course, every athlete should and needs to do whats best for them.
Those who have already made their fortunes are in much better shape than those with expected 5-10 year careers that would otherwise be making unemployment wages.
Anyway, to the OP, this question is posed on BBI every day or two and everyone's opinions by now are well known. I have more hope for professional sports, which to date are working in Europe and in South Korea... than i do for college athletics which wont have the degree of testing, relatively smaller and homogenous population set to control for, and most importantly, the risk/reward trade-off that exists in professional leagues (e.g., there's not enough monetary incentive for college athletes to risk it)
Deaths and hospitalization rates are currently not following the rise in number of positive cases, and it's not even clear if asymptomatic people who test positive can even transmit the disease to others according to the CDC
Life goes on
Deaths and hospitalization rates are currently not following the rise in number of positive cases, and it's not even clear if asymptomatic people who test positive can even transmit the disease to others according to the CDC
Life goes on
Unless of course, you die from it
I think with sports a big part is going to be the media and social media. I do wonder if players and staff start testing positive and some die the pressure may be too intense to continue.
Quote:
People are going to get the virus, it's not going anywhere for a while
Deaths and hospitalization rates are currently not following the rise in number of positive cases, and it's not even clear if asymptomatic people who test positive can even transmit the disease to others according to the CDC
Life goes on
Unless of course, you die from it
In what universe does the comment “life goes on”, not acknowledge people die from this virus.
I think you understood his meaning.
Basketball (and I mean this in a positive way) is like an addiction. Most of these guys have been on the playgrounds everyday since they could walk, in rain, snow, hot, cold, whatever ... If Basketball can’t come back, no sport can.
They can sit in the stands over the dugout. I don't think there is any way fans will be in the stands, and if by some miracle they do, they will be spread out and away from the lower part.
And nothing spells data and science like twitter feedback...
With all sports, I'm in a 'I'll believe it when I see it' mindset. I want there to be sports, but not at the expense of safety & just pure common sense.
@MikeFrancesa
·
21h
Starting to get the feeling that many owners are having serious second thoughts. Even as overwhelming greedy as they are.
Same percentage as last week in terms of positives per number of tests, so no spike
The context is really important. By itself, the number of positive cases means very little
As someone said above, these next two weeks are going to be key. Especially when you see more confirmed cases as a result of this past 4th of July weekend.
I know, I know, "Deaths are a lagging indicator..." but it's been about 2 weeks since the start of the rising cases across the nation and we've hit our lowest level of deaths in months.
Florida in particular has been "out of control" with cases and is up to about as many cases as we had in NY during the peak of the pandemic here, yet their high in deaths in a day recently is about 70 earlier this weak. NY was seeing about 700 people die at a day at the peak of the pandemic here.
If the death toll does not rise in the next 2 weeks, then I believe everyone will feel like the recent surge in cases will simply be due to more testing and the decreasing death rate will have people feeling better. This will be something government and corporations highlight to push us back to normalizing despite the lack of a vaccine.
But we'll see if that "lag" hits and deaths rise again in the next 10 or so days. If that's the case, I think the NBA's plan atleast would be derailed and probably MLB's too. Really huge couple of weeks for our country coming up.
I'm not sure how Texas' hospitalization rate compares with NY's from March/April, but they have several hospitals nearing capacity and they are preparing sites (NRG Stadium?) for overflow capacity. Hopefully, Dr's have learned enough to minimize death even from those that end up in ICU, but as you said, we'll find out in the next week or so. I think Arizona is facing a similar situation.
Not sure why Florida has (seemingly) avoided a significant increase in hospitalizations compared to TX/AZ. Is it a younger demographic getting infected? Or are they just lagging Tx/Az by a week or 2?
As someone said above, these next two weeks are going to be key. Especially when you see more confirmed cases as a result of this past 4th of July weekend.
It would be ironic if the sport with the least contact and the lowest risk of spreading (played outdoors) is the only one that doesn't give it a go.
How often are 2 baseball players even within 6 ft of each other outside of the batter/catcher/umpire (dare I say its a good opportunity to replace the HP ump...)? You can even have all IFs wear N95 or even just cloth masks. Not like they're running hard...
Quote:
But each day, I am less confident in baseball. You are seeing more players opt out of 2020 and who can blame some of these guys.
As someone said above, these next two weeks are going to be key. Especially when you see more confirmed cases as a result of this past 4th of July weekend.
It would be ironic if the sport with the least contact and the lowest risk of spreading (played outdoors) is the only one that doesn't give it a go.
How often are 2 baseball players even within 6 ft of each other outside of the batter/catcher/umpire (dare I say its a good opportunity to replace the HP ump...)? You can even have all IFs wear N95 or even just cloth masks. Not like they're running hard...
Quote:
But each day, I am less confident in baseball. You are seeing more players opt out of 2020 and who can blame some of these guys.
As someone said above, these next two weeks are going to be key. Especially when you see more confirmed cases as a result of this past 4th of July weekend.
It would be ironic if the sport with the least contact and the lowest risk of spreading (played outdoors) is the only one that doesn't give it a go.
How often are 2 baseball players even within 6 ft of each other outside of the batter/catcher/umpire (dare I say its a good opportunity to replace the HP ump...)? You can even have all IFs wear N95 or even just cloth masks. Not like they're running hard...
You bring up a great point. I was speaking more along the lines from a financial standpoint. Guys who have a a ton of money in the bank, putting themselves/families at risk for a third of their pay. I feel bad for a guy like Trout (who is the face of baseball) as he is torn between playing and being there for his wife during the birth of their first child.
Hockey is up in the air, as is basketball, in my opinion.
If at the very least one of these sports finishes their season I will consider that a win after having nothing to watch besides Captain Marvel or whatever liquid nitrogen shit is spewing from Netflix's water fountain these days.
they will successfully complete their season (to record tv ratings)
baseball and hockey will give it a go but virus will derail the season ..
doubt we will even see one football game this season ..
they will successfully complete their season (to record tv ratings)
hockey will give it a go but virus will derail the season ..
Why would a bubble work for basketball but not hockey?
are you ok? Forget your meds this morning?
The NBA's bubble seems super high tech (everyone has an electronic bracelet to activate their room and also track that they are correctly tracking their own symptoms and temperature daily, plus lots of testing for anyone presymptomatic or asymptomatic) - so hopefully it works as a short term solution.
Baseball in theory should be the easiest sport to figure out because it's outdoors, non-contact, and other countries have shown it's possible. The problem is the other countries have a lot more control of the spread among the rest of their populations. With a longer season, no bubble, travel, and hiccups already with their testing delays I think MLB is in for a rocky ride.
The NFL is the most impossible to predict. On their side they have time and money. Against them is that they are a close quarters sport and their timing is in cooler weather in most of the country. I'd guess their plan will end up needing to be a lot more extreme than we realize in terms of how much separation the players need from the outside world. Though there may be a rapid point of care test by September, which would make things a lot easier for all the leagues.
The biggest threat to all these sports is not their plans but the rest of us in society. If everyone could be responsible and get the thing under control each sports plan will have an infinitely better chance succeeding as they have in other countries. A huge reason why the NHL's plan may succeed is that they went to Canada where things are generally much more stable right now.
These teams do travel as well. The re-opening was very measured and there I believe was only 1 friendly (like a pre-season game).
The re-opening first few games were basically pre-season conditioning and quality so the teams had more flexibility with the roster.
I think a team which has more breaks in between games has more flexibility. Daily games and tons of travel are a challenge.
I'd give the NFL the best chance to have a shortened season.
If you're in a bubble, in theory it shouldnt matter whats going on in your geography. In fact, one could argue going to a spot with less infection incents more casual behavior and bad decisions. I've read the NBA is going to be really strict about enforcing safety - their demands of the media are borderline draconian anyway.
Regardless, ICU capacity shouldnt in theory matter much to NBA players... but we'll see. Also 3 weeks from now is an eternity, either way, with this virus. I have a hard time believing Toronto will adequately social distance during Leafs and other NHL playoff games by the way.