an outbreak, you can only (hopefully) dramatically reduce the risk. The percentages that these seasons were going to fly successfully was low. The NFL should try, but I’ve never been optimistic. Christian said above “ what if 2-3 starting lineman are out. Do we want to trot DJ out there?” I agree with that. What if he or Saquon test positive, are susceptible and end up in the hospital, they could be done Permanently. Scares the crap out of me.
as the Marlins had been out of town for a week, Flowers and D'Arnaud were out with COVID symptoms and pulled game 1 vs. Mets, and the Marlins played the Braves prior to the start of the regular season. Link - ( New Window )
as the Marlins had been out of town for a week, Flowers and D'Arnaud were out with COVID symptoms and pulled game 1 vs. Mets, and the Marlins played the Braves prior to the start of the regular season. Link - ( New Window )
Nothing against the author but he's just a Braves fansite writer. Doesn't mean he's wrong but he's not a journalist.
as the Marlins had been out of town for a week, Flowers and D'Arnaud were out with COVID symptoms and pulled game 1 vs. Mets, and the Marlins played the Braves prior to the start of the regular season. Link - ( New Window )
Nothing against the author but he's just a Braves fansite writer. Doesn't mean he's wrong but he's not a journalist.
Yes, it is speculation. That is exactly what I said. It was my first though when Alfaro was out and the couple Marlins yesterday, as I recalled those two playing each other.
Henry Winter
@henrywinter
Zero positive tests from 1,574 Premier League players and club staff tested for Covid-19 between Monday July 20 and Sunday July 26.
Of course he is not to blame for an outbreak as that situation is out of his control, however, as has been pointed out by any number of analysts as well as health experts MLB's plan was the weakest of the major sports. There were a number of health experts who said this would happen because they could not believe MLB was just flying around 30 mobile units as if nothing was happening.
I just don't see why anyone, players, owners, would trust his leadership on any major issue moving forward. What evidence has he given that he should be trusted as competent?
RE: If the season is cancelled how can Manfred remain commissioner?
Of course he is not to blame for an outbreak as that situation is out of his control, however, as has been pointed out by any number of analysts as well as health experts MLB's plan was the weakest of the major sports. There were a number of health experts who said this would happen because they could not believe MLB was just flying around 30 mobile units as if nothing was happening.
I just don't see why anyone, players, owners, would trust his leadership on any major issue moving forward. What evidence has he given that he should be trusted as competent?
Are you fucking kidding ? This is Manfred's fault ? I'm no big fan of his, but I don't see how you blame him for this. Getting this season is was problematic at best.
No I'm not fucking kidding. The failure may be a collaborative effort but does the buck not stop with commissioner of a league?
They thought the protocols they put in place would limit an outbreak to 2 or 3 players at the most at any one time. They would then quarantine those players and be able to move along. But they were warned this was wishful thinking by any number of health experts.
If they can't stop it from overwhelming a clubhouse, then that means the current protocols aren't sufficient. Regardless of what they thought about them, it means they were not good enough, not competent enough, and not thought out enough.
Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly says adjustments to MLB pandemic protocols are a work in progress, as Tuesday’s exhibition game at Atlanta showed.
“Our dugout was a mess,” Mattingly said Wednesday. “They weren’t set up to have guys in the stands. It was raining. There were no tents. So we had all these guys, and nowhere to go. Then we have a zillion guys in the dugout, so there’s no way we were social distancing. Those are the things we’ve got to work through.”
Another problem Mattingly said he needs to solve: When he wears a mask, his glasses keep fogging.
That's different than his other statement about their stadium not being set up for social distancing. This is on the Braves and MLB.
players are going nuts right now. I would be beyond furious.
Imagine what's going through Zack Wheeler's mind? His wife gave birth to twins 10 days ago.
I guess it would depend on how well informed he is.
If he's read the data and the medical research, he would know that he and his young wife are at FAR more risk driving to and from the stadium than from contracting COVID, and especially his babies are at zero risk from COVID (there has been negative excess death nationally among people under 25 this year).
If he is poorly informed, he would likely be very concerned.
to get into a car accident on the way to work? What kinda nonsense is that? Especially just below a post about a 27 year old who is dealing with some heart issues stemming from covid. But sure.
RE: so he shouldnt be concerned cause he is more likely...
to get into a car accident on the way to work? What kinda nonsense is that? Especially just below a post about a 27 year old who is dealing with some heart issues stemming from covid. But sure.
"Dealing with heart issues" is a very strong way of putting it for a guy who's treatment regiment is rest, and who would likely be cleared to play in a week.
RE: gee Florida is a shit show filled with dumb fucks...
“ MIAMI MARLINS YOU BE RESPONSIBLE OTHERWISE I BREAK YOUR FUCKING NECK” https://twitter.com/the_ironsheik/status/1287767730528104448?s=21 - ( New Window )
Haha. This is how you do it the proper way. Take notes.
RE: so he shouldnt be concerned cause he is more likely...
to get into a car accident on the way to work? What kinda nonsense is that? Especially just below a post about a 27 year old who is dealing with some heart issues stemming from covid. But sure.
Also, it is well established that for people under 40 and probably even under 50, that the normal seasonal flu is more deadly than covid.
So, and this is a serious question, do people think that with the benefit of what we know now, the Michael Jordan "flu game" should have been canceled?
RE: RE: so he shouldnt be concerned cause he is more likely...
Also, it is well established that for people under 40 and probably even under 50, that the normal seasonal flu is more deadly than covid.
So, and this is a serious question, do people think that with the benefit of what we know now, the Michael Jordan "flu game" should have been canceled?
Increasing quality!
RE: RE: so he shouldnt be concerned cause he is more likely...
to get into a car accident on the way to work? What kinda nonsense is that? Especially just below a post about a 27 year old who is dealing with some heart issues stemming from covid. But sure.
Also, it is well established that for people under 40 and probably even under 50, that the normal seasonal flu is more deadly than covid.
So, and this is a serious question, do people think that with the benefit of what we know now, the Michael Jordan "flu game" should have been canceled?
No it is not well established, haha. Where do you people come up with this stuff?
to get into a car accident on the way to work? What kinda nonsense is that? Especially just below a post about a 27 year old who is dealing with some heart issues stemming from covid. But sure.
Also, it is well established that for people under 40 and probably even under 50, that the normal seasonal flu is more deadly than covid.
So, and this is a serious question, do people think that with the benefit of what we know now, the Michael Jordan "flu game" should have been canceled?
No it is not well established, haha. Where do you people come up with this stuff?
Then you can go here and see the estimates that the flu in the past few years killed 266, 115, 126, 180, 396 people age 0-4 over the past five years. So yes, seasonal flu killed 5-20x in the 0-4 age group as COVID.
For older groups, let's take as an example Arizona, where we have 3304 deaths total, and 203 deaths among people under 45. Arizona has ~4 million residents under age 45. This means about 50 people per million under age 45 have died of COVID.
Serology studies in Arizona show 15% of people have had COVID as of July 19. But we know that it takes a couple weeks for antibodies to form, and also that a great many people kill off COVID purely with a T-cell response and would not even show antibodies.
Taking all that into account, I'm going to estimate that 25% of the state has had the disease. I think it is probably higher, but I think it's very hard to argue for lower.
So I'm estimating 1 million AZ residents under age 45 have had the disease (and more have been exposed and didn't catch it, thanks to natural cross immunity). And 203 are dead. 203 in a million is 0.02%, and I'm more likely to be conservative than aggressive in my estimate. That rate would be lower than the flu mortality rate, or perhaps in-line if you want to nitpick.
well considering there are 10x the number of positive Flu cases
than that of Covid, i'm not really sure what you are talking about. And why are we talking about 1-4 year olds in a thread about athletes aged 18-40 for the most part?
than that of Covid, i'm not really sure what you are talking about. And why are we talking about 1-4 year olds in a thread about athletes aged 18-40 for the most part?
fewer than 2000 people have died from covid between ages 19-40 to date. Assuming 20% of the population has been exposed which at this point feels understated but we have no way of knowing -- gets you to a 99.989% survival rate.
Certainly the Red Sox pitcher news is concerning, hope he makes a speedy recovery, but its still pretty early in his recovery and oh by the way, do they even know if he picked it up at a ballpark? Its not like our risks are 0 by not going to work.
But everyone certainly has the right to make their own decision on this - and if this COL pitcher can survive a year off economically, all the power to him.
in the 18-49 range (all athletes) 2,800 people died out of 14m+ confirmed cases. That's less than 2%.
It took about 10 weeks for there to be 2,800 dead from COVID in that 35-44 group.
So yeah, I have no idea where you are coming up with your conclusion from.
Where did you get the information on ages 35-44? CDC through July 11 (they update on Wednesdays) shows 2400 deaths ages 35-44 (with most of those over age 40... very few athletes over 40 ... coaches another matter of course)
to get into a car accident on the way to work? What kinda nonsense is that? Especially just below a post about a 27 year old who is dealing with some heart issues stemming from covid. But sure.
"Dealing with heart issues" is a very strong way of putting it for a guy who's treatment regiment is rest, and who would likely be cleared to play in a week.
Is it? The article makes no mention of him likely being cleared to play in a week. He is resting for a week before getting another MRI to see if the swelling of his heart has resumed. Good analysis, Big Chief Data.
in the 18-49 range (all athletes) 2,800 people died out of 14m+ confirmed cases. That's less than 2%.
It took about 10 weeks for there to be 2,800 dead from COVID in that 35-44 group.
So yeah, I have no idea where you are coming up with your conclusion from.
Where did you get the information on ages 35-44? CDC through July 11 (they update on Wednesdays) shows 2400 deaths ages 35-44 (with most of those over age 40... very few athletes over 40 ... coaches another matter of course)
In the link he provided.
If you go to page 2 under the graph it breaks it out by week. Starting the week ending of 3/28 there's 100+ deaths in that age bracket for 9 straight weeks. I didn't add them up manually, and now that i just did so its closer to 2,000 over a 10/11 weeks timespan. By bad there, looked like more when I estimated it.
But my point was that it dwarfs the Flu and has done so in a much quicker timespan. here - ( New Window )
But you have to love the site. Blame Florida, when the Marlins caught it in Atlanta? Florida is bad, but the Marlins were clean until the exhibition game after a couple/few Braves tested positive.
Also, seemed weird to me all the guys sitting in the dugout without masks on. So the players not scheduled to play have to stay away, but the rest of the team sits in a dugout breathing on each other..
its about states that are populated as much or more than Taiwan being able to freely travel (up until recently) to any other state. There's 23 million people in the tristate area alone (the entire size of the Phillipines). in 2017 60m passengers flew through JFK alone...
It just isn't the same, basically the polar opposite.
But you have to love the site. Blame Florida, when the Marlins caught it in Atlanta? Florida is bad, but the Marlins were clean until the exhibition game after a couple/few Braves tested positive.
Also, seemed weird to me all the guys sitting in the dugout without masks on. So the players not scheduled to play have to stay away, but the rest of the team sits in a dugout breathing on each other..
I agree with those crapping on MLBs protocols..
Good point on the dugout. Even the viral video of Rizzo sanitizing that Brewer players hands... you've got Rizzo, a middle aged 1B coach and the Brewers runner all congregating and laughing. I cant tell if the Brewer has a mask on, but the coach and Rizzo certainly dont. I get that its hot out and its uncomfortable, but you'd think players would mask when they are within 6 feet of other players, and especially older coaches.
players are going nuts right now. I would be beyond furious.
Imagine what's going through Zack Wheeler's mind? His wife gave birth to twins 10 days ago.
I guess it would depend on how well informed he is.
If he's read the data and the medical research, he would know that he and his young wife are at FAR more risk driving to and from the stadium than from contracting COVID, and especially his babies are at zero risk from COVID (there has been negative excess death nationally among people under 25 this year).
If he is poorly informed, he would likely be very concerned. CDC Excess Death Stats - ( New Window )
a link between MIS-C and influenza (first known potential case), and it has taken less than a few months for COVID-19 to be linked with it, it's become the intellectually lazy analysis to compare COVID-19 with influenza or car accidents, or anything else. I mean, the short-term death rates of COVID-19 are higher than AIDS...
Beyond that, we are well aware of the effects of the influenza viruses. Not only are we still learning about the mortality and morbidity effects of the NOVEL coronavirus, we are learning that the morbidity impacts may outweigh the mortality impacts.
We're not going to go back to full-on shutdowns (that horse shit in the stable months ago), but we need to make informed decisions that take into account the fact that there could be some long-term health harms from this.
you have got to get the players to buy into compliance. It's got to start with seniors leaders of the locker room and the entire coaching staffs, no matter what their personal opinions of the virus are. Without that, people will run amok.
Being somewhat facetious, but let the players smoke as much weed as they want at home (with no suspensions), and that may cut down on foot traffic to places that could lead to infections during the season.
Sounds promising....
Quote:
players are going nuts right now. I would be beyond furious.
hopefully all of their tests today come back negative
And for the next 14 days..............
“NightMERE”
-Bert Kreischer
Quote:
conference call among all 30 owners.
Sounds promising....
was already previously scheduled
Link - ( New Window )
Nothing against the author but he's just a Braves fansite writer. Doesn't mean he's wrong but he's not a journalist.
Quote:
as the Marlins had been out of town for a week, Flowers and D'Arnaud were out with COVID symptoms and pulled game 1 vs. Mets, and the Marlins played the Braves prior to the start of the regular season. Link - ( New Window )
Nothing against the author but he's just a Braves fansite writer. Doesn't mean he's wrong but he's not a journalist.
Yes, it is speculation. That is exactly what I said. It was my first though when Alfaro was out and the couple Marlins yesterday, as I recalled those two playing each other.
Henry Winter
@henrywinter
Zero positive tests from 1,574 Premier League players and club staff tested for Covid-19 between Monday July 20 and Sunday July 26.
Scrapped meaning no make up date? I don't know how MLB thinks they can play a season if this starts happening.
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
I just don't see why anyone, players, owners, would trust his leadership on any major issue moving forward. What evidence has he given that he should be trusted as competent?
I just don't see why anyone, players, owners, would trust his leadership on any major issue moving forward. What evidence has he given that he should be trusted as competent?
They thought the protocols they put in place would limit an outbreak to 2 or 3 players at the most at any one time. They would then quarantine those players and be able to move along. But they were warned this was wishful thinking by any number of health experts.
If they can't stop it from overwhelming a clubhouse, then that means the current protocols aren't sufficient. Regardless of what they thought about them, it means they were not good enough, not competent enough, and not thought out enough.
Quote:
Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly says adjustments to MLB pandemic protocols are a work in progress, as Tuesday’s exhibition game at Atlanta showed.
“Our dugout was a mess,” Mattingly said Wednesday. “They weren’t set up to have guys in the stands. It was raining. There were no tents. So we had all these guys, and nowhere to go. Then we have a zillion guys in the dugout, so there’s no way we were social distancing. Those are the things we’ve got to work through.”
Another problem Mattingly said he needs to solve: When he wears a mask, his glasses keep fogging.
Quote:
floating around that the Orioles players have been informed they are leaving Florida tonight which would mean the entire series is being scrapped.
Scrapped meaning no make up date? I don't know how MLB thinks they can play a season if this starts happening.
It's only a rumor for now but makeup dates for any canceled games are currently up in the air.
Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez confirms he's dealing with heart issue stemming from COVID-19 infection - ( New Window )
Quote:
players are going nuts right now. I would be beyond furious.
Imagine what's going through Zack Wheeler's mind? His wife gave birth to twins 10 days ago.
I guess it would depend on how well informed he is.
If he's read the data and the medical research, he would know that he and his young wife are at FAR more risk driving to and from the stadium than from contracting COVID, and especially his babies are at zero risk from COVID (there has been negative excess death nationally among people under 25 this year).
If he is poorly informed, he would likely be very concerned.
CDC Excess Death Stats - ( New Window )
"Dealing with heart issues" is a very strong way of putting it for a guy who's treatment regiment is rest, and who would likely be cleared to play in a week.
Yell this very same thing to everyone sitting out on the beaches today in smart Jersey.
Much sure you curse multiple times to make your statement more impactful as well.
Haha. This is how you do it the proper way. Take notes.
Also, it is well established that for people under 40 and probably even under 50, that the normal seasonal flu is more deadly than covid.
So, and this is a serious question, do people think that with the benefit of what we know now, the Michael Jordan "flu game" should have been canceled?
So, and this is a serious question, do people think that with the benefit of what we know now, the Michael Jordan "flu game" should have been canceled?
Increasing quality!
Quote:
to get into a car accident on the way to work? What kinda nonsense is that? Especially just below a post about a 27 year old who is dealing with some heart issues stemming from covid. But sure.
Also, it is well established that for people under 40 and probably even under 50, that the normal seasonal flu is more deadly than covid.
So, and this is a serious question, do people think that with the benefit of what we know now, the Michael Jordan "flu game" should have been canceled?
No it is not well established, haha. Where do you people come up with this stuff?
https://twitter.com/johnjharwood/status/1287817568896667649?s=21 - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14939245 Italianju said:
Quote:
to get into a car accident on the way to work? What kinda nonsense is that? Especially just below a post about a 27 year old who is dealing with some heart issues stemming from covid. But sure.
Also, it is well established that for people under 40 and probably even under 50, that the normal seasonal flu is more deadly than covid.
So, and this is a serious question, do people think that with the benefit of what we know now, the Michael Jordan "flu game" should have been canceled?
No it is not well established, haha. Where do you people come up with this stuff?
For me, it's all about data.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
Table 1, Tab 2. You'll be able to count up all the deaths from COVID for people age Under 1 Year and 1-4 Years Old pretty fast. That number is 20.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
Then you can go here and see the estimates that the flu in the past few years killed 266, 115, 126, 180, 396 people age 0-4 over the past five years. So yes, seasonal flu killed 5-20x in the 0-4 age group as COVID.
For older groups, let's take as an example Arizona, where we have 3304 deaths total, and 203 deaths among people under 45. Arizona has ~4 million residents under age 45. This means about 50 people per million under age 45 have died of COVID.
Serology studies in Arizona show 15% of people have had COVID as of July 19. But we know that it takes a couple weeks for antibodies to form, and also that a great many people kill off COVID purely with a T-cell response and would not even show antibodies.
Taking all that into account, I'm going to estimate that 25% of the state has had the disease. I think it is probably higher, but I think it's very hard to argue for lower.
So I'm estimating 1 million AZ residents under age 45 have had the disease (and more have been exposed and didn't catch it, thanks to natural cross immunity). And 203 are dead. 203 in a million is 0.02%, and I'm more likely to be conservative than aggressive in my estimate. That rate would be lower than the flu mortality rate, or perhaps in-line if you want to nitpick.
That same week for 35-44 year olds there were 2,000 deaths, 280 due to COVID - that's 14%.
And the AZ Dept of Health lists it at 4.9% on their dashboard.
Link - ( New Window )
It took about 10 weeks for there to be 2,800 dead from COVID in that 35-44 group.
So yeah, I have no idea where you are coming up with your conclusion from.
fewer than 2000 people have died from covid between ages 19-40 to date. Assuming 20% of the population has been exposed which at this point feels understated but we have no way of knowing -- gets you to a 99.989% survival rate.
Certainly the Red Sox pitcher news is concerning, hope he makes a speedy recovery, but its still pretty early in his recovery and oh by the way, do they even know if he picked it up at a ballpark? Its not like our risks are 0 by not going to work.
But everyone certainly has the right to make their own decision on this - and if this COL pitcher can survive a year off economically, all the power to him.
It took about 10 weeks for there to be 2,800 dead from COVID in that 35-44 group.
So yeah, I have no idea where you are coming up with your conclusion from.
Where did you get the information on ages 35-44? CDC through July 11 (they update on Wednesdays) shows 2400 deaths ages 35-44 (with most of those over age 40... very few athletes over 40 ... coaches another matter of course)
Oh and Taiwan is one of the most densely populated places on earth. 24 million people.
Taiwan Baseball - ( New Window )
Quote:
to get into a car accident on the way to work? What kinda nonsense is that? Especially just below a post about a 27 year old who is dealing with some heart issues stemming from covid. But sure.
"Dealing with heart issues" is a very strong way of putting it for a guy who's treatment regiment is rest, and who would likely be cleared to play in a week.
Is it? The article makes no mention of him likely being cleared to play in a week. He is resting for a week before getting another MRI to see if the swelling of his heart has resumed. Good analysis, Big Chief Data.
Quote:
in the 18-49 range (all athletes) 2,800 people died out of 14m+ confirmed cases. That's less than 2%.
It took about 10 weeks for there to be 2,800 dead from COVID in that 35-44 group.
So yeah, I have no idea where you are coming up with your conclusion from.
Where did you get the information on ages 35-44? CDC through July 11 (they update on Wednesdays) shows 2400 deaths ages 35-44 (with most of those over age 40... very few athletes over 40 ... coaches another matter of course)
In the link he provided.
If you go to page 2 under the graph it breaks it out by week. Starting the week ending of 3/28 there's 100+ deaths in that age bracket for 9 straight weeks. I didn't add them up manually, and now that i just did so its closer to 2,000 over a 10/11 weeks timespan. By bad there, looked like more when I estimated it.
But my point was that it dwarfs the Flu and has done so in a much quicker timespan.
here - ( New Window )
Oh and Taiwan is one of the most densely populated places on earth. 24 million people. Taiwan Baseball - ( New Window )
Stop. So an island of people is what's realistic for the US? It isn't just population density, its how travel magnifies it.
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What sports looks like in a country with sane policies. Only 462 cases 7 deaths.
Oh and Taiwan is one of the most densely populated places on earth. 24 million people. Taiwan Baseball - ( New Window )
Stop. So an island of people is what's realistic for the US? It isn't just population density, its how travel magnifies it.
Yes it does prove it's possible. Let's not forget most of the US mainland is still empty space. That size argument really is the dumbest of all.
Also, seemed weird to me all the guys sitting in the dugout without masks on. So the players not scheduled to play have to stay away, but the rest of the team sits in a dugout breathing on each other..
I agree with those crapping on MLBs protocols..
It just isn't the same, basically the polar opposite.
Also, seemed weird to me all the guys sitting in the dugout without masks on. So the players not scheduled to play have to stay away, but the rest of the team sits in a dugout breathing on each other..
I agree with those crapping on MLBs protocols..
Good point on the dugout. Even the viral video of Rizzo sanitizing that Brewer players hands... you've got Rizzo, a middle aged 1B coach and the Brewers runner all congregating and laughing. I cant tell if the Brewer has a mask on, but the coach and Rizzo certainly dont. I get that its hot out and its uncomfortable, but you'd think players would mask when they are within 6 feet of other players, and especially older coaches.
Quote:
In comment 14939099 Italianju said:
Quote:
players are going nuts right now. I would be beyond furious.
Imagine what's going through Zack Wheeler's mind? His wife gave birth to twins 10 days ago.
I guess it would depend on how well informed he is.
If he's read the data and the medical research, he would know that he and his young wife are at FAR more risk driving to and from the stadium than from contracting COVID, and especially his babies are at zero risk from COVID (there has been negative excess death nationally among people under 25 this year).
If he is poorly informed, he would likely be very concerned. CDC Excess Death Stats - ( New Window )
You know, ZERO Risk... - ( New Window )
Beyond that, we are well aware of the effects of the influenza viruses. Not only are we still learning about the mortality and morbidity effects of the NOVEL coronavirus, we are learning that the morbidity impacts may outweigh the mortality impacts.
We're not going to go back to full-on shutdowns (that horse shit in the stable months ago), but we need to make informed decisions that take into account the fact that there could be some long-term health harms from this.
Being somewhat facetious, but let the players smoke as much weed as they want at home (with no suspensions), and that may cut down on foot traffic to places that could lead to infections during the season.