NFT: Mets at Red Sox Game 1. Wacha

Pitchers in a row. Good grief.

Wacha's nickname is Pac Man. If I were his teammate that's what I'd call him.

PJ

2-0 Mets

Let Gimenez get reps or play Nuñez instead.

In comment 14939536 Mike in NY said:

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Let Gimenez get reps or play Nuñez instead.

nunez hurt himself in the blowout last night

that guy can really hit a baseball hard.

As the whole last series. Let's keep it up and get those bats going

Taking out the embarrassment from last night out on the Sox tonight.

3 run shot for Dom, 7-0 lead

This is the offense we thought we were getting.

Matz and Wacha were my upside players this year. So far so good.

95 mph with that change... he'll get results if healthy.

I always liked him on St Louis. He’s been up and down but he’s had some quality seasons. And still under 30 years old. I was surprised that we got him so cheap, all things considered. If he can turn in a nice season, then we’re cooking. High upside.

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Folty just got DFA'd.

That's one hell of a bad outing.

In comment 14939596 Vanzetti said:

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Its between Peterson and Erasmo Ramirez to start tomorrow. I think they are leaning Peterson.

In comment 14939622 ZGiants98 said:

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Folty just got DFA'd. That's one hell of a bad outing.

Wow that is harsh. That being said, he is such a tease. Great stuff, but inconsistent and really prone to long ball.

Don’t remember him pitching like this

back to his usual self. Comes in with a 5 run lead and walks JD Martinez. Now it’s 7-4 and tying run is on deck.

Big strikeout. 7-4 going to top 9th.

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cannot survive the season with Lugo this used in this way.

Have to ride or die with Diaz and Familia.

Good win, but not sustainable.

Davis foul ball before Conforto homer was really a home run? There was no review.

In comment 14939655 SJGiant said:

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Davis foul ball before Conforto homer was really a home run? There was no review.

Hell yes it was fair.

obviously, but it would be awesome if Wacha can be consistently like this.

Pat Ragazzo
@ragazzoreport
·
2m
Wacha says he spent a lot of time during the off-season/shutdown on his mechanics and as a result, his offspeed stuff has came out nice. His Changeup and cutter did the job tonight. Also, his fastball had more velocity on it averaging 94.5 mph as opposed to 2019’s 93 mph

.

In comment 14939654 pjcas18 said:

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cannot survive the season with Lugo this used in this way. Have to ride or die with Diaz and Familia. Good win, but not sustainable.

Confused by this comment. He faced only 4 batters and hadn’t pitched since last Friday? Typically he goes 2 innings every other day. Are you saying this because he needs to be moved to the rotation?

should not be the closer and if he is he shouldn't be used multiple innings - because then he becomes unavailable for the next game or two.

It's not a sustainable model IMO to have him as your closer and pitch multiple innings regularly.

I do think he should be in the rotation, but I also feel like if Diaz and Familia don't straighten out the season is doomed anyway. Let it roll.

In comment 14939733 pjcas18 said:

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should not be the closer and if he is he shouldn't be used multiple innings - because then he becomes unavailable for the next game or two. It's not a sustainable model IMO to have him as your closer and pitch multiple innings regularly. I do think he should be in the rotation, but I also feel like if Diaz and Familia don't straighten out the season is doomed anyway. Let it roll.

Having a multi inning reliever is a new trend in baseball. Go back and look at Andrew Miller from a couple years ago when he was widely considered one of the best relievers in baseball. He rarely pitched multiple days in a row. Lugo, also has come in multiple days in a row a few times a year, so I think if they had to shift him to a strict closer, they could just dial back his multi inning use. As for the rotation, I want to see it a few times through first. So far deGrom, Wacha, and Matz look great and a Porcello three a stinker.

Let’s hope Peterson pitches tonight and let’s see what we have in him. After a few cycles, I have no issues shifting Lugo there. Stroman might be back at some point too though. For me, after an extremely SSS, the biggest issue on the team right now are the bats. They need to wake up. We don’t have the luxury for them to be mostly ice cold for a month. We will live and die with them imo.

since he came up as a starter, but once he became a reliever Miller maxed at 74 innings in 70 appearances. Typically his innings were in the 50's or 60's. Well below what Lugo projects to.

The past two seasons Lugo (netting out his starts from 2018) has pitched over 80 innings in around 55 and 60 appearances respectively.

they're not used exactly the same.

But my thinking anyway is why wait? It's a 60-game season. A rough stretch could be catastrophic. I'd move Lugo to the rotation and let the chips fall where they may with Diaz at the back end. If it's going to be a disaster make it a spectacular disaster instead of a slow death.

Using Lugo as a closer not only spends Lugo, it makes it clear to Diaz he's not reliable and probably injures his psyche. People may say "man up, you're a gown man" but athletes need to be treated like investments.

Mets need Diaz to have value. For many reasons.

I think last night was the correct call. The game was starting to trend towards a comeback until Lugo came in. No need to get Diaz back out there ASAP in that game. Probably would be a waste of Lugo for 1 batter.

1. Give Familia closing opps to try to re-establish him as an option there. 9th inning with a lead is when he has been highly successful. How many closers have we seen not be as effective when they come in to non-closing situations? That is practically all he's gotten since resigning. TRY HIM IN THE ROLE HE EXCELLED AT. Re-establishing Familia as a top tier closer would be a game changer for the entire roster with massive positive trickle down effects - like opening up the option of moving Lugo to the rotation.

2. Keep Lugo as a swing guy but don't use him back to back. I'd actually prefer to keep him multi-inning, non closer while evaluating the starting rotation because I think there's a good chance we need to stretch him out into a starter if Stroman doesn't heal quickly. But they can only do that if Familia or Diaz step up (and at this point I think Familia is more likely than Diaz).

3. Start planning the BP now for life without Lugo in case he does go to the rotation. Brach should be the go to 7th inning option, Betances/Wilson in the 8th, Familia/Diaz in the 9th. Lugo as swing guy for now can fill gaps and perhaps it works out that they can't spare him in the rotation. But if they ever want to be able to move him they need to start getting other guys ready now.

or Diaz. Pitchers don't get so horseshit so quickly for no reason.

Opening day Diaz looked nasty, and game 2, I thought he made a good pitch, but he got beat, I hate to think that puts him back to where he was last year.

In either case whether it's Familia or Diaz I don't care too much, I just think the Mets are a stronger team with Lugo in the rotation (if his elbow holds up) and a successful Diaz/Familia back end of the bullpen.

Otherwise, it's basically no changes from last year's 2nd half team (pitching) except Syndergaard and Wheeler are replaced by Porcello and Wacha and I don't like that swap.

Maybe Syndergaard and Wheeler replaced by Lugo and Wacha I'd take (or swap in Porcello if Wacha falters and Porcello can return to 2018 form, but Lugo is better than both).

To me, that's how you improve on last year's results.

because he is a 2 pitch pitcher who relies heavily on his FB and has always had problems with the long ball. Those are structural issues that I think present challenges that get compounded by being in a pressure filled environment having been a total failure so far with his new team. Even in his outlier HOF caliber season Diaz gave up a higher rate of homers:FB (10%) than Familia's career average (8%). His career average (17%) is more than doubles Familia's and last year's (25%) was obviously completely unsustainable for success. Homeruns are a big weakness of Diaz' relative to Familia.

They have a guy with a track record of success who doesn't have those structural issues, who also seems to not be doing well in the setup role. Not trying him out back in the closer role he excelled at while we have another guy struggling with it seems like insanity to me.

So who's pitching tonight ??

I honestly hope it's Big Lefty Peterson. I watched the kid pitch when he came thru Charleston a year or two ago. I thought at the time that all he needed was a good Pitching Coach to work with. I don't give up on a 6' 6" 240 lb Lefty without giving him every chance.

Peterson joining the Mets rotation.

Today.

Peterson pitching tonight! Great!

If Peterson has a bad game. Kids jumping from AA to the majors against a very tough lineup. That said with improved velocity and reports of his secondaries looking better, I’m excited to see him.

Typical Mets fans will crush him if he struggles I fear though.

I know people dont love the pick, but that doesnt mean he is some bum right? Like is he #3 upside if things break right? Or is his ceiling basically a back of the rotation guy?

That said im much more excited to see him then i would have been for oswalt or some retread.

In comment 14939879 Italianju said:

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I know people dont love the pick, but that doesnt mean he is some bum right? Like is he #3 upside if things break right? Or is his ceiling basically a back of the rotation guy? That said im much more excited to see him then i would have been for oswalt or some retread.

Most will predict him as a backend type but he started to come on in the second half last year and his peripherals looked much better than his ERA would suggest. Also, reports have been good behind the scenes lately. I’m optimistic.

he will either be somewhat effective kind of like a poor man's Niese or he will get lit up. But may as well give it a shot. In a normal season he'd have more to prove in the minors but it's not like he's raw. He's turning 25 in a little over a month and he's pitched a lot of college/pro innings. He's got good size and good control. He's a ground ball pitcher who doesn't give up the long ball much. If he can make a handful of decent starts this year that will be a huge win for the organization. 30 or 40 good innings is all that's really needed.

isn't a bum but he does have limited upside. Realistic upside is a strike throwing #4 starter who gives you innings. Big kid. 4 pitches, none plus. FB would be "below average" for today's high velocity game. Spin rates aren't great. He's the best option and could be solid.

eterson showed a nice, easy arm action that made the fastball look faster than it was. He utilized his height well and kept the ball down. He also showed the ability to hit the strike zone with all of his offerings. As with any pitcher who lacks a blazing fastball, Peterson is at his best working down in the zone but he did a nice job changing hitters’ eye levels when necessary and kept the ball out of the meat of the zone when he pitched up.

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Despite the significant gap in draft range with these two hurlers, their ceilings appear to be similar as future No. 4 hurlers that can come in, throw strikes, keep the ball down and provide you five or six innings of work. I give a slight edge to Peterson because he has a deeper repertoire.

bout what i thought on Peterson. Its not like a solid #4 doesnt have value. We are just spoiled i guess thinking every guy coming up can be a Cy young contender.

"The spin rate on Peterson’s fastball averages 2150 RPM, which is quite low, as the average fastball spin rate is around 2250 RPM. While that may sound bad, fastballs with either high (which appear to rise) or low (which have greater sink) spin rates tend to produce the best results, compared to more average fastballs. Due to the sinking nature of his fastball, Peterson has recorded groundball rates greater than 52% at every level at which he has pitched."




Overall, Peterson is not a flashy prospect, but he does look like a potential #4 starter who the Mets could plug into their rotation as soon as midseason 2020, if a need should arise. Statistical projections, especially for minor league players, are imperfect, but it is interesting to note that ZiPS, one of the preeminent projection systems available to the public, projects Peterson to have a 4.04 ERA/3.82 FIP in 2020.

In comment 14939883 DanMetroMan said:

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isn't a bum but he does have limited upside. Realistic upside is a strike throwing #4 starter who gives you innings. Big kid. 4 pitches, none plus. FB would be "below average" for today's high velocity game. Spin rates aren't great. He's the best option and could be solid.

Dillon Gee-esque seems like a good baseline to hope for. Gee debuted at a similar age with very mediocre AAA numbers. Obviously didn't have great stuff and wasn't a strike out guy but kept his walks down and generally kept the ball in the ball park.

Niese I guess would be a higher end outcome - and there are some similarities there too, primarily the higher GB rate and lefty.

He’s a bit of a headcase though. I’d probably rather see what Peterson looks like but we do need depth right now.

will be patient with Peterson.

at least they should be.

tough debut though at fenway for a lefty pitcher. I guess being a groundball pitcher negates a little bit of the wall factor, but still a tough debut.

and just throws batting practice. Especially as a lower velocity pitcher, his stuff just may not play. But on the flip side it could play better than the mph. Some guys can make a living in the upper 80's because they get enough movement.

Hope for Dillon Gee, but be prepared in the event he's Flexen. The polish that's been consistent in his scouting reports going back to the draft will hopefully protect against that but you never know until the lights are on.

93/94 recently. Guess we’ll see.

In comment 14939895 Eric on Li said:

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and just throws batting practice. Especially as a lower velocity pitcher, his stuff just may not play. But on the flip side it could play better than the mph. Some guys can make a living in the upper 80's because they get enough movement. Hope for Dillon Gee, but be prepared in the event he's Flexen. The polish that's been consistent in his scouting reports going back to the draft will hopefully protect against that but you never know until the lights are on.

I read that Flexen was pitching well in Korea

Tim Healey
@timbhealey
·
47m
Breaking: The Mets have agreed to a deal with Bruce Maxwell, the former A’s catcher known best for kneeling during the national anthem in 2017.

Yeah, I thought Peterson would be good for a #4 or #5, a change of pace lefty when we had Thor and Wheels. He threw a lot of "grounders" the night I saw him pitch for Columbia. Better put the "A" defensive team on the field tonight.

Never know how these kids will produce. Have heard some positive reports, and looks like he had some bad BABIP luck last year in AA, while putting up pretty good K/9 and HR/9.

Feel for all the kids who have to come up and debut in front of no fans though - not what they envisioned all those years - but hopefully Peterson produces and gets a version of that next year.

In comment 14939891 ZGiants98 said:

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He’s a bit of a headcase though. I’d probably rather see what Peterson looks like but we do need depth right now.

This is my thoughts as well. The one concern is his decrease in velocity. His fastball was down 5 mph from last season. If it was just because he is dealing with an injury then some team could get a nice addition. I have a hard time believing that he’s injured because the Braves would have just sent him to the IL. He is still worth rolling the dice on.

Folty seems to be very inconsistent. He either has good stuff or he's way off....and no way to tell on any given start.

At 28 or so, it's getting late for him.

Jay -- would he accept an assignment to Gwinnet ??

In comment 14939912 JB_in_DC said:

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Never know how these kids will produce. Have heard some positive reports, and looks like he had some bad BABIP luck last year in AA, while putting up pretty good K/9 and HR/9. Feel for all the kids who have to come up and debut in front of no fans though - not what they envisioned all those years - but hopefully Peterson produces and gets a version of that next year.

His BABIP will likely always be higher than average due to his profile (ground ball pitcher, not a ton of swing and miss). 2018 his BABIP was .333 in A+

In comment 14939935 Named Later said:

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Folty seems to be very inconsistent. He either has good stuff or he's way off....and no way to tell on any given start. At 28 or so, it's getting late for him. Jay -- would he accept an assignment to Gwinnet ??

I assume so because he did last season. He’s the most bi-polar pitcher the Braves have ever had. Last years NLDS is a perfect representation of Folty’s career.
7IP 3 H 0 Runs 0 BB 7K
0.1 IP 6H 7 Runs 6 ER 3BB 0K

DFA'ed, he hasn't been good but it really speaks to how thin the Mets SP depth is when Oswalt sticks, he of the career 6.09 FIP over 12 big league starts.