Mike Garafolo
@MikeGarafolo
The #Giants have agreed to a two-year extension with OL Nick Gates, who started three games last year. The deal has a base value of $6.825 million and could max out at $10.325 million. A former undrafted free agent who spent his first year on IR, Gates cashes in.
A bit much...that's starter money...
If the incentives are such that the compensation only hits the ceiling if he performs like a decent starter, sweet. Good, savvy contract.
If the incentives are such that the compensation hits the ceiling if he suits and up and sucks 16 games next year, not a savvy contract.
What’s the point of view you think I am trying to contradict?
1) Solder opting out makes cutting him next year more costly to the team than if he played out this season
2) The contract is on the books for a year later than it was before he did
What pulls us even further away from the point I was making while you accuse me of distracting is that I joined this thread asking for the logic of the timing of the signing.
For the timing to make logical sense to sign an extension wouldn't you want more potential cap room next year? That would provide the logic for this move I was asking for. Whatever you want to say about the opt out it certainly doesn't provide the Giants with more room next year so why would that be a good catalyst to extend someone?
It really highlights the problematic thinking of some here that those that are asking for the logic behind moves are told they have an agenda for pointing out that this might not be a good move and we need more facts. I came here asking for facts, asking if other teams were making moves like this given the uncertain financial future of the league. Doesn't it show much more of an agenda that there are many on this thread that essentially want to say that no one could possibly see fault in this before we even know the full terms of the deal?
You even rob yourself of the ability for your opinion to matter once the full terms are disclosed because you made up your mind before you had all the information.
What am I missing?
What am I missing?
As of now:
- 2021 ~5M cap hit would be 15th among centers
- 2022 ~5M cap hit would be 11th among centers
I’d argue the contract would be fair, but not a bargain. Especially if the cap shrinks.
What we don’t know is what the incentive escalators are. We don’t know what becomes guaranteed in the contract and why. The downside is if an easy to reach incentive in 2020 does in fact guarantee a lot of his 2021 salary.
Again, this isn’t a tragedy, but there are some minor details that could make this look less savvy.
Resources are finite and given that the team had the most dead money in the league the last few years wouldn't you want to see them handing out less bonus money, especially to a player that has started 3 games? Especially with a potentially declining cap and a chunk of anticipated dead money on the OL already next year?
It is quite reasonable to point out a flaw in analysis of many on this board that they want to declare the deal a good value before even seeing the terms of the deal. It's not really sound analysis to do that generally but in light of the record of this front office in FA it isn't outlandish at all to suggest that it would be nice to have more apparent logic in moves that are made.
"It's not a big deal if we are wrong" is not a super great reason to do something.
There are good systems in place that a lot of teams use. What would be wrong with letting him play the season and tendering him at the 2nd round level of $2.914 next year?
You can let him see what the market is and how he fits in your system.
Let's say he's coming off two good years instead after this contract and he's a UFA you actually lose the leverage of him being restricted that way.
The point is there are a lot of unknowns here. And it seems many the Giants included are in the habit of acting like they have all the answers before they've even allowed themselves to get the best information.
You constantly hear about the LW thing and people making "too big of a deal" of something.
Expecting something to go well shouldn't require an assumption that people know things you don't, plenty of decisions make lots of sense with small or large amounts of information on them.
NoGainDayne : 6:50 pm : link : reply
that we should assume it is a savvy move because the Giants did it. When the Giants have made many head scratching moves that seemed unwise at the moment they happened.
Isn't the exact opposite thing happening on this thread? A select few are questioning the move because the Giants made it, even though there's very little downside to it.
In fact, the most germane question continually asked on this thread is by UConn - "What is the downside?"
It shouldn't take a multi-paragraph load of bullshit talking about "good systems" and other vapid lines of nothingness to answer that.
Acting like having the answers before having information?? Too fucking rich.
One side is insisting it is a good move before seeing the terms of the deal. And pointing out there is a lot of uncertainty right now that may affect if it is a good deal.
The other side is basically saying the only possible way to view this move is that it is a good move before they have all the facts.
And as Uconn has pointed out re: Christians point, he will only see those higher AAV's if he is hitting his incentives. We may not know the specifics yet but they are unlikely to be "Nick Gates gets $5m if he sucks so bad everyone wishes we didn't sign him in the first place".
One side is insisting it is a good move before seeing the terms of the deal. And pointing out there is a lot of uncertainty right now that may affect if it is a good deal.
The other side is basically saying the only possible way to view this move is that it is a good move before they have all the facts.
There is seemingly 0 uncertainty that he only got $1.5m guaranteed.
Kevin Abrams is likely more worried about getting struck by lightning than being handcuffed by dead money from this contract.
And not for nothing but if Gates becomes a starter, it is far more likely at Right Tackle versus Center.
Har har har Kevin Abrams joke. He's been here as the cap guy for every one of those contracts.
Risk should be managed at all sizes of contracts. Is the supposition as long as a signing bonus is $1.5M it really doesn't matter who you give it to? Hey, just cut them if they don't pan out right?
Perhaps you'd like to give an example of another NFL team handing out a contract like this right now?
I'm not really sure I understand the question about who else is getting contracts like this. I mean, you can look at Keith Smith a FB for the Falcons. Matthew Slater, a career ST'er for the Pats, Zach Wood, a LS for the Saints or the contracts for 14 other reserve players that SPORTRAC is showing happened.
- the upside scenario is he performs at or above league average at center,(or guard or tackle, that would awesome) reaches the incentives and earns ~11M over the next 3 years
- the neutral scenario is he doesn’t play league average or above starter and is relegated to backup “something” and earns ~5-7M the next 2 or 3 years
- downside scenarios, he is cut after next year, or reaches the incentives to be paid the full amount, but isn’t all that good — for instance if the incentives are around starts or snaps
Food for thought Halopio started 15 games and 95% of snaps. If those are the parameters to up the cost, and he plays as bad that would suck.
Har har har Kevin Abrams joke. He's been here as the cap guy for every one of those contracts.
Risk should be managed at all sizes of contracts. Is the supposition as long as a signing bonus is $1.5M it really doesn't matter who you give it to? Hey, just cut them if they don't pan out right?
Kevin Abrams made the FA decisions in 2016 or the decisions to resign + trade JPP/Beckham? Pretty sure they led the league in dead money because the of $200m guaranteed the respective GMs gave those guys, not because Abrams did a poor job structuring the contracts and certainly not because they gave a some back roster players like Keenan Robinson or Will Johnson less than 1% of the guaranteed money they gave those guys.
Being an aficionado on dead money you probably already know this but it surprised me just now to see that at the moment the NYG are actually about $4m better than the league average. Somehow I missed all the positive posts on this trend from the dead money enthusiast sub-community. So they could cut Nick Gates twice tomorrow and eat the entire dead cap hit twice while still being below the league average because it's that inconsequential an amount of money.
I think he's probably the top contender at either RT or C - whichever he's better at and/or the 2nd option is worse at. At C that could be Pulley or Lemiux, at RT it could be either Flemming or Peart.
C is probably the best position for his skill set but also the bigger unknown since he's never played there and never snapped.
recognizing improvement takes away a key narrative they want to keep ramrodded down on the board.
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as it stands right now - he's the swing OT who can also play guard?
I think he's probably the top contender at either RT or C - whichever he's better at and/or the 2nd option is worse at. At C that could be Pulley or Lemiux, at RT it could be either Flemming or Peart.
C is probably the best position for his skill set but also the bigger unknown since he's never played there and never snapped.
Center is his best position and yet he has never played there? Ever.
I think we need to take DG’s comments with a grain of salt, particularly since he hasn’t seemed to be able to find this team an adequate Center as of yet. It could be a pipe dream for all we know.
'20 - play this year on your base
'21 - get tendered at either $2.1m or $3.2m in March or hit UFA ($2m tender = de facto FA, if $3m you're a UFA in '22)
'22 - UFA
'20 - play this year on your base and get $1.5m check
'21 - make between $2-4m next year depending on incentives or get cut
'22 - make between $2-4m the year depending on incentives or get cut
This is one that will take more detailed analysis once the full contract is available but I suspect the salaries are close to similar in either scenario and both would be non-guaranteed.
So I think this decision basically boils down to a choice between $1.5m check today or reaching UFA 1 or 2 years earlier. That $1.5m just sees really light considering even Spencer Pulley got more guaranteed money a few years ago and as an observer I'd easily prefer Gates > Pulley. But obviously who knows what Gates' personal situation is and how to factor in the uncertainty of C19.
I think he's probably the top contender at either RT or C - whichever he's better at and/or the 2nd option is worse at. At C that could be Pulley or Lemiux, at RT it could be either Flemming or Peart.
C is probably the best position for his skill set but also the bigger unknown since he's never played there and never snapped.
Center is his best position and yet he has never played there? Ever.
I think we need to take DG’s comments with a grain of salt, particularly since he hasn’t seemed to be able to find this team an adequate Center as of yet. It could be a pipe dream for all we know.
And skillset does not always equal best position. But his strength seems to be his mobility and movement which would probably translate better on the interior than at T at his size, but who knows. Maybe he's Bakhtiari II.
This.
We can move on now
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In comment 14944082 Eric on Li said:
I think he's probably the top contender at either RT or C - whichever he's better at and/or the 2nd option is worse at. At C that could be Pulley or Lemiux, at RT it could be either Flemming or Peart.
C is probably the best position for his skill set but also the bigger unknown since he's never played there and never snapped.
Center is his best position and yet he has never played there? Ever.
I think we need to take DG’s comments with a grain of salt, particularly since he hasn’t seemed to be able to find this team an adequate Center as of yet. It could be a pipe dream for all we know.
And skillset does not always equal best position. But his strength seems to be his mobility and movement which would probably translate better on the interior than at T at his size, but who knows. Maybe he's Bakhtiari II.
Eric I read the whole sentence and you went several bridges too far. His skills have been presented in exactly 3 whole starts and all at different positions than the one you said he probably is best skilled at. Nowhere near enough to make such an assessment for a coach no less a fan poster.
Look, I am sure we all we would like Gates to be a contributor and maybe even a solid guy somewhere on the line. Obviously DG sees something in him hence the nice extension. But seems like we should wait to see if hikes the football over Daniel Jones head too much before we call Center his best position.
Eric I read the whole sentence and you went several bridges too far. His skills have been presented in exactly 3 whole starts and all at different positions than the one you said he probably is best skilled at. Nowhere near enough to make such an assessment for a coach no less a fan poster.
Look, I am sure we all we would like Gates to be a contributor and maybe even a solid guy somewhere on the line. Obviously DG sees something in him hence the nice extension. But seems like we should wait to see if hikes the football over Daniel Jones head too much before we call Center his best position.
A bridge too far by saying his skillset may be best at center vs. RT while clearly pointing out the obvious unknown that he has never in fact played center? Someone call the hyperbole police.
Surely you realize just about every scouting report entering the NFL projected him moving inside from tackle right to the point where he was labeled a guard at the combine? I wasn't making a suggestion out of thin air based on last year - just restating the conventional wisdom that generally undersized UDFA's with short arms project as interior lineman rather than tackles, and as it happens we only have 1 open interior position right now at C. Whether he can snap or handle the additional mental aspects of the center position is an unknown - as was clearly stated in the same sentence you took issue with.
And really not unusual all for college Tackles to project to Guard in the NFL, but moving to Center is a whole different deal with several distinct skill sets. So best not to just bunch them up all up as interior lineman in this comparison.
Real simply, Gates doesn't have any live snaps at the Center position in his career to even rely upon to make the statement what he is best at. I hope he is a superstar at Tackle, Guard and Center, but at this stage would be satisfied if he can do one of them reasonably well after the coaches develop him moreso and figure out how he can be a contributor.
Oh, and don't call me Shirley.
And really not unusual all for college Tackles to project to Guard in the NFL, but moving to Center is a whole different deal with several distinct skill sets. So best not to just bunch them up all up as interior lineman in this comparison.
Real simply, Gates doesn't have any live snaps at the Center position in his career to even rely upon to make the statement what he is best at. I hope he is a superstar at Tackle, Guard and Center, but at this stage would be satisfied if he can do one of them reasonably well after the coaches develop him moreso and figure out how he can be a contributor.
Oh, and don't call me Shirley.
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Eric I read the whole sentence and you went several bridges too far. His skills have been presented in exactly 3 whole starts and all at different positions than the one you said he probably is best skilled at. Nowhere near enough to make such an assessment for a coach no less a fan poster.
Look, I am sure we all we would like Gates to be a contributor and maybe even a solid guy somewhere on the line. Obviously DG sees something in him hence the nice extension. But seems like we should wait to see if hikes the football over Daniel Jones head too much before we call Center his best position.
A bridge too far by saying his skillset may be best at center vs. RT while clearly pointing out the obvious unknown that he has never in fact played center? Someone call the hyperbole police.
Surely you realize just about every scouting report entering the NFL projected him moving inside from tackle right to the point where he was labeled a guard at the combine? I wasn't making a suggestion out of thin air based on last year - just restating the conventional wisdom that generally undersized UDFA's with short arms project as interior lineman rather than tackles, and as it happens we only have 1 open interior position right now at C. Whether he can snap or handle the additional mental aspects of the center position is an unknown - as was clearly stated in the same sentence you took issue with.
Agree with above generally. Mostly concerned about the team trying to push square pegs in round holes versus just getting professional Center in place. Again, I think Gates might be the starting Right Tackle based upon events of the past month.
On the flip side however we have seen both Seubert and Boothe each as individuals likely best suited to be guards, kick in to play center effectively. Brandon Linder had a similar physical profile to Gates and he moved to center in the NFL after playing a bunch of different positions at Miami. So we aren't talking about a rare feat like turning a TE into an OT or a WR into a DB. If Gates is good on the mental side I think it's likely he might have the best long term potential at C of any player on the roster currently. I don't think the same is true of him at RT (bc of Peart) though he may be the best option right now and anything is possible.
And regardless of what happens this year, his most ideal long term spot may be RG once Zeitler moves on.
Judge says they will try guys at different places and see what sticks so I guess we will all just have to wait and see what they decide to do. But Gates being perhaps the best option for both of the currently open spots is a big reason why I think this was a really smart contract. If he ends being the solution at either open starting spot it will be a very below market value.
Not an ideal preseason to bring someone into the mix late though...pandemic constraints, limited practices and games, new offense, etc. Not sure if feasible.
Eric - this is where the details on the contract become quite important. If he earns ~5M/YR in 21/22 as a center -- it's not below market value. It's mid-market value.
If he cracks the lineup as a starting guard or tackle, that's awesome.
As I posted above -- based on current contracts (and a presumably shrinking cap) -- a 5M AAV center would slot depending on the year at 11th or 15th.
If the contract rewards him at the top end by some measure that indicates he play well, again awesome. If the contract rewards for simply playing, not awesome.
Again, as I posted above, a guy like Halopio played 95% of snaps and started 15 games -- I hope simple measures like that aren't the incentives.
#2 - even aside from #1, if we were to cherry pick your $5m number instead of AAV, that would slot in as the 19th highest among all centers 1 spot behind Nick Eason and 1 spot ahead of BJ Finney (so below average). The $3m AAV is only a few spots behind that so for ranking purposes it's not all that different. $2m would take him out of the top 32 centers - so the base of the contract is as a backup.
But again, this is all willfully ignorant of the fact that his AAV cost next year was either going to be the tender at $2.1m or $3.2m - and if it was 2.1m tender he would have been a defacto FA (original rd compensation for a UDFA). Whenever the official details get published do you think his cap # pre-incentives will be pretty close to $3.2m which was his likely '21 destiny? Because I do.
AAV for centers - ( New Window )
In 2020, Gates will earn a base salary of $675,000, while carrying a cap hit of $676,668.
In 2020, Gates will earn a base salary of $675,000, while carrying a cap hit of $676,668.
They don't have the details yet and are just putting in placeholders.
Presumably his 2020 compensation is his current ~675K salary + plus a portion (500K) of his new signing bonus. 2020 is a low salary now and before. All good.
Moving forward is the key issue, and where I don't believe "below market" applies, especially if the incentives are easy to earn. If the incentives are commensurate with playing well, all good too!
If he were to be paid ~5M in 2021 he would be the 16th most costly center, and in 2022 would be 12th most costly.
Presumably his 2020 compensation is his current ~675K salary + plus a portion (500K) of his new signing bonus. 2020 is a low salary now and before. All good.
Moving forward is the key issue, and where I don't believe "below market" applies, especially if the incentives are easy to earn. If the incentives are commensurate with playing well, all good too!
If he were to be paid ~5M in 2021 he would be the 16th most costly center, and in 2022 would be 12th most costly.
Given the 1.5 million signing bonus, his cap hits at most would be 4.6 million in 21/22 even with hitting all incentives (assuming they are all LTBE and spread evenly along with salary).
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Eric -- the extension is beyond 2020 (21,22), and those are the years I was clearly addressing (and noted).
Doh, it would be 4.8 million. Forgot I should have only pulled out 500k not 1 million.
Presumably his 2020 compensation is his current ~675K salary + plus a portion (500K) of his new signing bonus. 2020 is a low salary now and before. All good.
Moving forward is the key issue, and where I don't believe "below market" applies, especially if the incentives are easy to earn. If the incentives are commensurate with playing well, all good too!
If he were to be paid ~5M in 2021 he would be the 16th most costly center, and in 2022 would be 12th most costly.
Given the 1.5 million signing bonus, his cap hits at most would be 4.6 million in 21/22 even with hitting all incentives (assuming they are all LTBE and spread evenly along with salary).
So here goes nothing. Start with:
$10.3m reported maximum
minus $1.5m reported new SB
=$8.8m max salaries w/ all incentives
minus $660k year 1 salary ('20 salary remaining the same per Pat T.)
= $8.14m non-gtd max salary w/ incentives in years 2 + 3 (4.57m max AAV for those 2 years including prorated SB)
Now if we want to speculate on the yet to be confirmed non-gtd base salaries in years 2+3, I'd guess it's:
$6.8m (reported new money in 2 year extension)
- $1.5m SB
= $5.3m ($2.65m AAV for those 2 seasons, which also happens to split the difference of what the original round tender and the 2nd round RFA tender would have been next year if they were the same as this year).
That's all obviously rough based off the limited info we know - but I don't think the exact details need to be confirmed when we know there's only $1.5m guaranteed and the max value is $10.3m over these 3 years (Max AAV $3.43m).
The simplest read on the contract is this - 3 years, $7.5m, with $1.5m of that being SB. $2.5m AAV. With about $1m in TBD incentives per year beyond that. Slightly backloaded since they kept year 1 salary the same but how much more beyond that remains to be seen.
I mean speculating that the incentives are just for playing time is a whole lot of fun here, but that isn't very realistic. At least some portion (usually a significant portion) of incentives are tied to measures of good play - not just starts.
But again - without trying to speculate that the majority of the incentives MAY be just for playing, the argument falls flat.
See the trend here? The argument falls flat without wild speculation and exaggeration.
yeah I mean this is 100x more clear cut than the Pulley extension, which looks Dennis Rodman controversial in comparison.
Gates gave them 1 extra year in return for a $1.5m check right now and a potentially lower salary than he'd have gotten next year. Call me crazy but in normal times where there's no uncertainty I don't think any player does that when they are 1 year from FA.
The simplest read on the contract is this - 3 years, $7.5m, with $1.5m of that being SB. $2.5m AAV. With about $1m in TBD incentives per year beyond that. Slightly backloaded since they kept year 1 salary the same but how much more beyond that remains to be seen.
Got it. And if doesn't hold up this year the team is really only out the $660K salary plus the $1.5M bonus for his services.