back to say mid october by then hopefully Florida and California have leveled off a bit. I guess it's probable it won't be much better then but its just seems fruitless to try this now.
will hold. We have 50 different entities pulling in 50 different directions, enough so that we basically can't get out of the FIRST wave of this pandemic. Bet your boots that a second and third will follow (second probably already occurring in Louisiana).
Good luck trying to predict the best time to start a season.
right at the start of flu season. That probably matters for for the general public than it does sports teams but still, the common influenza + the common cold are going to present more “potential” cases and more players maybe missing time due to fears that they may have it.
If anything they should have started earlier even though I realize that’s not really feasible.
Due to social distancing policies and behaviors already in place. Still think there's no football season but adding the flu to covid is not going to be the double whammy everyone thinks it is imo.
My guesstimate is there's less than a 50% chance of the season starting as planned. And if it does start, it will likely not get very far. Odds on season starting as planned - ( New Window )
Those odds were taken March 31, which was essentially a lifetime ago.
People are really misunderstanding what is going to happen
I was looking for books that would take that bet, but it seems to be off the board. The issue is going to be in November when general flu season takes off. Although I believe the general consensus is it spreads more easily then because people tend to congregate in closer capacity in colder months as well as less UV light. I doubt we see much close indoor congregation this year though.
You can be certain they're receiving info from the government and various backchannels.
There is no secret info. And there is no "the government." Trump, Pelosi, Schumer, Roberts, Ginsberg, etc. are all part of the government. You think they tell each other secrets and keep them from you?
With 60,000+ new cases every day, you think you need secret information to decide to close your office?
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
Due to social distancing policies and behaviors already in place. Still think there's no football season but adding the flu to covid is not going to be the double whammy everyone thinks it is imo.
How about some black humor on this? Nothing to do with BLM...
But you might be right re "but adding the flu to covid is not going to be the double whammy everyone thinks it is imo" because Covid-19 has already killed off so many of those immuno compromised elderly folks who would have died via influenza - if they were still alive.
But they're already dead. Can't die twice, unless you're Bond...
Who's to say that this whole thing won't spike in the winter? Too many variables. You go as is until you cant.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/who-says-covid-19-pandemic-is-one-big-wave-not-seasonal-idUSKCN24T16U The WHO - ( New Window )
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
What a GREAT post..How is your cherub?
RE: RE: Who's to say it won't be better by September?
Who's to say that this whole thing won't spike in the winter? Too many variables. You go as is until you cant.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/who-says-covid-19-pandemic-is-one-big-wave-not-seasonal-idUSKCN24T16U The WHO - ( New Window )
The WHO is learning on the fly like everyone else. What they are stating isn't reassuring anyway - unpredictable waves vs. a seasonal correlation isn't ideal.
But one thing I know for certain is flu season starts in 2 months, and on top of that the common cold cases will spike too and all of them have the same early symptoms.
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
24 years and younger have a 0% mortality.
A. False
B. Death isn't the only negative outcome. There is a lot we don't know about long-term effects of this.
No one is predicting and/or managing against large scale lethality among players. The league however does have to account for:
- Mitigating transmission, because short of death, those who get sick can get very sick and have to be quarantined
- Mitigating against transmission, because those who don’t get sick but are infected can be community spreaders and will be quarantined
- Football is a workplace where practical precautions are impossible
- City governments, not the teams, decide if practices and games can go on, and can kill the lights if the organizations aren’t keeping things under control
Not sure what argument you're looking for here, and it's not my intent to create or debate one. You really believe 0% people in that age range have died? That sounds accurate to you?
step away. The experts aren't even sure, so I'm not taking your word on anything. The WHO has gotten some right and some wrong, too many unknowns still.
And like others have said, why is death the only thing you are citing?
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
24 years and younger have a 0% mortality.
That does not pass the sniff test.
Yes it does. See for yourself. - ( New Window )
***** "A month ago, Florida health officials had reported only one death among people younger than 25. Over the next two weeks, four more young people died. Now it’s 12, including two deaths in kids younger than 12."
My guesstimate is there's less than a 50% chance of the season starting as planned. And if it does start, it will likely not get very far. Odds on season starting as planned - ( New Window )
Zeke already noted the date of those odds, but just fundamentally - even if those weren't outdated - Vegas is not predicting less than a 50% chance of the season starting as planned; they're predicting that bettors will predict less than a 50% chance.
Vegas doesn't predict outcomes; it predicts the general public's perceptions. There's a significant difference between those two things, even if it feels like semantics.
RE: If you follow many of the top companies out there in tech
they're pushing office returns to 2021 already. You can be certain they're receiving info from the government and various backchannels.
In other words, there doesn't appear to be a big difference between starting the season on time versus two months later.
Dont really get the comparison. Of course companies that are operating perfectly fine in a work-from-home environment... will do so as long as needed, if not well past needed. There's just no incentive for them to bring people back now. Financial services industry is doing the same thing - our jobs can be performed remotely, so whats the point of going in?
Football, retail, bank branches, restaurants, hospitals - in contrast require people to go in to be able to perform their jobs... and so they are...
As for 'not wanting to get into a political conversation' - well then dont make posts about how "people arent taking this seriously because they're listening to Trump" - pretty ridiculous hit and run there.
As to Different poster above - For kids under 24 "having 0% risk"... of course its not 0. Kids have died. 244 according to the CDC - mostly ages 15-24. That puts the mortality rate at about 0.0012% assuming about a 20% infection rate among the population at this point.
As for long-term damage to kids, likely very very low but they're learning more every week and month so we'll see. Considering 43,000 kids per year die - in my view its a relatively low risk compared to other things and i certainly view the alternative - having them sit at home for a year, two years while we wait for a safe, effective vaccine and the implications that has for their academic, social and athletic development - as far, far worse than their risk to the disease itself. So my kids are going to school this Fall and i'm not the slight bit apprehensive about it at this time.
But if other parents want to keep their kids home this year... even better, more personalized school attention for my kids.
A poorly made point on my part. But, a few are paying too much attention to the word Trump. The point was to say there's a lot of people out there not paying attention, they're in denial or they're doing what they damned well please and some are absolutely going to absorb Trump's words and use it as reinforcement. Some won't. If you're the latter, you have nothing to take personally or politically. My post wasn't a political statement, it was just poorly written probably because I'm overworked and trying to raise a little one during these crazy times.
Good luck trying to predict the best time to start a season.
If anything they should have started earlier even though I realize that’s not really feasible.
Odds on season starting as planned - ( New Window )
In other words, there doesn't appear to be a big difference between starting the season on time versus two months later.
Those odds were taken March 31, which was essentially a lifetime ago.
There is no secret info. And there is no "the government." Trump, Pelosi, Schumer, Roberts, Ginsberg, etc. are all part of the government. You think they tell each other secrets and keep them from you?
With 60,000+ new cases every day, you think you need secret information to decide to close your office?
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
How about some black humor on this? Nothing to do with BLM...
But you might be right re "but adding the flu to covid is not going to be the double whammy everyone thinks it is imo" because Covid-19 has already killed off so many of those immuno compromised elderly folks who would have died via influenza - if they were still alive.
But they're already dead. Can't die twice, unless you're Bond...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/who-says-covid-19-pandemic-is-one-big-wave-not-seasonal-idUSKCN24T16U
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/who-says-covid-19-pandemic-is-one-big-wave-not-seasonal-idUSKCN24T16U
The WHO - ( New Window )
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
24 years and younger have a 0% mortality.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
What a GREAT post..How is your cherub?
Quote:
Who's to say that this whole thing won't spike in the winter? Too many variables. You go as is until you cant.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/who-says-covid-19-pandemic-is-one-big-wave-not-seasonal-idUSKCN24T16U The WHO - ( New Window )
The WHO is learning on the fly like everyone else. What they are stating isn't reassuring anyway - unpredictable waves vs. a seasonal correlation isn't ideal.
But one thing I know for certain is flu season starts in 2 months, and on top of that the common cold cases will spike too and all of them have the same early symptoms.
Quote:
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
24 years and younger have a 0% mortality.
That does not pass the sniff test.
Quote:
In comment 14942809 JonC said:
Quote:
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
24 years and younger have a 0% mortality.
That does not pass the sniff test.
Yes it does.
See for yourself. - ( New Window )
Quote:
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
24 years and younger have a 0% mortality.
A. False
B. Death isn't the only negative outcome. There is a lot we don't know about long-term effects of this.
👍🏿👍
- Mitigating transmission, because short of death, those who get sick can get very sick and have to be quarantined
- Mitigating against transmission, because those who don’t get sick but are infected can be community spreaders and will be quarantined
- Football is a workplace where practical precautions are impossible
- City governments, not the teams, decide if practices and games can go on, and can kill the lights if the organizations aren’t keeping things under control
And like others have said, why is death the only thing you are citing?
Quote:
In comment 14942891 HoustonGiant said:
Quote:
In comment 14942809 JonC said:
Quote:
No, I certainly don't and am sure many others do not. You're reading me wrong here, no need for the snark.
But, many people still don't get it. Despite the numbers shared every day, I see people out without masks, not socially distancing, filling bars, you name it. People aren't paying attention and are listening to what Trump is pushing out there, because they're in denial. I'm scared of bringing home to my toddler, my only child.
At the same time, there are companies out there in tech and bio-tech that are telling their employees you're going to be home for awhile. That runs counter to the sports leagues opening up right now, quite frankly. Who's listening to whom. CDC is part of the government, I believe Fauci et al are doing their level best.
24 years and younger have a 0% mortality.
That does not pass the sniff test.
Yes it does. See for yourself. - ( New Window )
***** "A month ago, Florida health officials had reported only one death among people younger than 25. Over the next two weeks, four more young people died. Now it’s 12, including two deaths in kids younger than 12."
And this is just Florida
Zeke already noted the date of those odds, but just fundamentally - even if those weren't outdated - Vegas is not predicting less than a 50% chance of the season starting as planned; they're predicting that bettors will predict less than a 50% chance.
Vegas doesn't predict outcomes; it predicts the general public's perceptions. There's a significant difference between those two things, even if it feels like semantics.
In other words, there doesn't appear to be a big difference between starting the season on time versus two months later.
Dont really get the comparison. Of course companies that are operating perfectly fine in a work-from-home environment... will do so as long as needed, if not well past needed. There's just no incentive for them to bring people back now. Financial services industry is doing the same thing - our jobs can be performed remotely, so whats the point of going in?
Football, retail, bank branches, restaurants, hospitals - in contrast require people to go in to be able to perform their jobs... and so they are...
As for 'not wanting to get into a political conversation' - well then dont make posts about how "people arent taking this seriously because they're listening to Trump" - pretty ridiculous hit and run there.
As to Different poster above - For kids under 24 "having 0% risk"... of course its not 0. Kids have died. 244 according to the CDC - mostly ages 15-24. That puts the mortality rate at about 0.0012% assuming about a 20% infection rate among the population at this point.
As for long-term damage to kids, likely very very low but they're learning more every week and month so we'll see. Considering 43,000 kids per year die - in my view its a relatively low risk compared to other things and i certainly view the alternative - having them sit at home for a year, two years while we wait for a safe, effective vaccine and the implications that has for their academic, social and athletic development - as far, far worse than their risk to the disease itself. So my kids are going to school this Fall and i'm not the slight bit apprehensive about it at this time.
But if other parents want to keep their kids home this year... even better, more personalized school attention for my kids.