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NFT: NHL Draft Lottery (Doomsday Scenarios)

FearTheHippo : 8/8/2020 10:54 am
The NHL Draft Lottery Phase II drawing will be held Monday at 6 p.m. and aired on NBCSN, and NHL Network.

The winner of the drawing picks #1, while the losers pick 9-15.

Eight teams each have a 12.5% chance: Wild, Jets, Rangers, Panthers, Predators, Oilers, Penguins, and either the Blue Jackets or Maple Leafs (pending game 5 of their series).

Doomsday scenario #1: Edmonton wins the lottery and the careers of three of the most exciting players in the league are wasted playing for a team nobody watches in a city with less than a million people in it.

Doomsday scenario #2: Pittsburgh wins the drawing and we all have to stomach watching Crosby lift another cup over his head.
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RE: RE: ....  
BleedBlue : 8/8/2020 5:17 pm : link
In comment 14946136 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14946116 BleedBlue said:


Quote:


so a playoff team picks #1.

Thats a serious joke



this has been known for months.



Didnt say we just found out. Still doesnt change the fact its a joke
RE: RE: RE: ....  
Anakim : 8/8/2020 5:22 pm : link
In comment 14946167 BleedBlue said:
Quote:
In comment 14946136 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14946116 BleedBlue said:


Quote:


so a playoff team picks #1.

Thats a serious joke



this has been known for months.




Didnt say we just found out. Still doesnt change the fact its a joke


It's only a joke if the Rangers don't win
RE: RE: RE: ....  
pjcas18 : 8/8/2020 5:40 pm : link
In comment 14946167 BleedBlue said:
Quote:
In comment 14946136 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14946116 BleedBlue said:


Quote:


so a playoff team picks #1.

Thats a serious joke



this has been known for months.




Didnt say we just found out. Still doesnt change the fact its a joke

they didn't finish the regular season. There were no better options. The NHL and NHLPA approved it, joke or not, it's the best option in a shitty situation.
RE: RE: RE: RE: ....  
BleedBlue : 8/8/2020 6:21 pm : link
In comment 14946169 Anakim said:
Quote:
In comment 14946167 BleedBlue said:


Quote:


In comment 14946136 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14946116 BleedBlue said:


Quote:


so a playoff team picks #1.

Thats a serious joke



this has been known for months.




Didnt say we just found out. Still doesnt change the fact its a joke



It's only a joke if the Rangers don't win


Lol

Im a devils fan myself but i think its really bad that a playoff team gets #1
RE: RE: RE: RE: ....  
BleedBlue : 8/8/2020 6:22 pm : link
In comment 14946180 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14946167 BleedBlue said:


Quote:


In comment 14946136 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14946116 BleedBlue said:


Quote:


so a playoff team picks #1.

Thats a serious joke



this has been known for months.




Didnt say we just found out. Still doesnt change the fact its a joke


they didn't finish the regular season. There were no better options. The NHL and NHLPA approved it, joke or not, it's the best option in a shitty situation.



Doesnt matter...that #1 should go to one of the worst 7 teams
Knights win Arrrggg arrrggg Knights win  
gtt350 : 8/8/2020 6:29 pm : link
carry on
RE: RE: Make more money and buy it.  
BrettNYG10 : 8/8/2020 6:53 pm : link
In comment 14946134 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14946048 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


1. McDavid
2. Matthews
3. MacKinnon
4. Dahlin
5. Alexis Lafreniere
6. Hughes
7. Ekblad
8. Nico Hischier
9. Nugent-Hopkins
10. Hall

Yakupov wasn't picked.

Also realizing my initial post didn't describe the article correctly. It was ranking Lafreneire to the previous top ten #1 picks.





this is now, and only argument I think may be Lafreniere vs Dahlin, but I don't think MacKinnon and Matthews were higher ranked as prospects.

MacKinnon IMO is right behind McDavid now in terms of best players, but I don't recall him being that highly regarded as a prospect.

Otherwise top 5 seems about right.

Lafreniere just plays so big if you know what I mean. He's more of a physical presence at 6' 1" than Byfield who is 6' 5".

of course Lafreniere is almost a year older than Byfield (and at 17/18 that's huge), but still, when you evaluate a prospect it's about what they will become not what they are today and I think Lafreniere's trajectory is more predictable than Matthews scoring 40 goals as a 19 year old or MacKinnon putting up 60+ points as an 18 year old.

IOW I think those GM's are comparing what they know now about Matthews and MacKinnon vs what they knew then.


I think Hall not being ranked higher is a joke.

I agree, I don’t remember MacKinnon hyped like that. Since Crosby, I think the most hyped guys were McDavid and then Tavares, with Matthew/Stamkos behind both of them.

I don’t really remember Kane hyped up that much relative to other #1 picks.
#1 never goes to one  
pjcas18 : 8/8/2020 8:31 pm : link
of the 7 worst teams. It always goes to a lottery team.

And technically the teams that lose the qualifying round don't make the playoffs though slightly contradictory to that I believe these stats count as playoff stats, but that's why it's a called a qualifying round.

It's not a perfect setup but given the circumstances I didn't hear a better suggestion.
RE: #1 never goes to one  
FearTheHippo : 8/8/2020 9:07 pm : link
In comment 14946275 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
of the 7 worst teams. It always goes to a lottery team.

And technically the teams that lose the qualifying round don't make the playoffs though slightly contradictory to that I believe these stats count as playoff stats, but that's why it's a called a qualifying round.

It's not a perfect setup but given the circumstances I didn't hear a better suggestion.


Personally, I think leaving the odds alone (basing them on winning percentage when the season ended) and not worrying about the remote chance of a team winning the cup and the lottery was a better choice.
Chicago and Montreal  
MetsAreBack : 8/8/2020 10:20 pm : link
Advancing are a bad look for the league Neither had a prayer of making it pre covid. They didn’t even make either win 4 of 5 against a team 15-20 points up 70 games in
....  
BrettNYG10 : 8/8/2020 10:44 pm : link
I would have tried a way to guarantee the top six teams in each conference a spot instead and had a round robin for the last two. But I don't view what the league did as some great tragedy - no solution was going to be perfect.

I think the Coyotes/Habs/Blackhawks were outplayed in their series', but advanced due to puck luck/good goaltending/bad goaltending on the other side. I'd still give those teams collectively at less than ten percent odds of winning the Cup.
Yeah  
pjcas18 : 8/9/2020 8:16 am : link
Carey Price stole the series. MTL scored two more expected goals than they should have, but Price allowed 8 less expected goals than he should have.

That is MASSIVE. 8 expected goals stopped in 4 games.
Price was great.  
BrettNYG10 : 8/9/2020 11:39 am : link
I just don't see a team winning four more rounds if they get outplayed every game like that.

Of the three bottom seeds (Habs/Coyotes/Blackhawks), I actually think they were outplayed the least - although the numbers you just cited might contradict that.
Yeah absolutely  
pjcas18 : 8/9/2020 12:02 pm : link
the only upset who I see with a chance is CHI and it's because Kane, Toews, Keith - etc. all have the playoff experience needed to make a difference.

and they struck lightning with the rookies Dominik Kubalik and Kirby Dach.

I think MTL has a better chance of getting swept than they do of winning vs PHI.
No way is Chicago beating the Knights  
gtt350 : 8/9/2020 1:09 pm : link
The Knights might be the best balanced team in the league and they are playing without Pacioretty (sp)
The Knights just beat The Stars, the Blues and the Avalanche in  
gtt350 : 8/9/2020 1:12 pm : link
sucession, no easy feat. Chicago is not the caliber of those three
The Blackhawks  
pjcas18 : 8/9/2020 1:15 pm : link
aren't the Oilers caliber either, the Canadiens aren't the Penguins caliber, in a 7-game series I think you're right, but I still give the Blackhawks the best chance from the qualifying round upsets.
Oilers fan here  
RasputinPrime : 8/9/2020 6:00 pm : link
and I want no part of the first overall pick. The team is cursed.
RE: No way is Chicago beating the Knights  
pjcas18 : 8/9/2020 6:58 pm : link
In comment 14946541 gtt350 said:
Quote:
The Knights might be the best balanced team in the league and they are playing without Pacioretty (sp)


FYI..Pacioretty is back for the "real" playoffs.
i know thank god  
gtt350 : 8/9/2020 9:33 pm : link
.
I just found out that Tim Biakabatuka's nephew is a prospect in the  
Anakim : 8/9/2020 9:46 pm : link
upcoming NHL Draft. How wild.
The Rangers draft order:  
Anakim : 8/9/2020 11:17 pm : link
They'll pick first if they win the Lottery tomorrow

They'll pick 10th if the Jets or Wild win the Lottery

They'll pick 11th if neither scenario happens
I hope Minnesota wins the lottery  
Mike in NY : 8/9/2020 11:18 pm : link
.
Not to put the carriage before the horse, but I can't shake the  
Anakim : 8/9/2020 11:35 pm : link
feeling that even if the Rangers did get the first overall pick that they wouldn't take Lafreniere.

First off, for whatever reason the Rangers rarely take players from the Q. I don't know why, but Gordie Clark has some aversion to it.

Second and perhaps most pertinent, the Rangers SEVERELY lack depth at C, both in the pros and in the farm. As of now, they only have Zibanejad and Howden in the pros (Strome is a RFA). I think they like Chytil more at wing. In the farm, the only real C prospects to speak of is Morgan Barron, who profiles as bottom-6 guy, and Karl Henriksson, who is several years away. I am not counting Lias Andersson anymore.

By contrast, they have several top-6 players at wing who will be with the team now and long-term: Panarin, Kreider, Kakko, Kravtsov, Chytil, Gauthier (if he continues to improve), Fast (if they re-sign him), and Buchnevich.

You're not supposed to draft based off of need, but we have seen it done before with the Rangers. They took Al Montoya sixth overall when Richter retired and Blackburn's future was uncertain because they needed a goalie. Meanwhile, Dubnyk and Schneider were taken in the same first round and had much better NHL careers...at least that Henrik guy panned out.

They also took Dylan McIlrath 10th overall over better prospects like Vlad Tarasenko and Cam Fowler. I think the issue with Tarasenko was that they didn't think he'd come over, but it sounds like they passed on Fowler because they have Del Zotto and Sanguinetti in the system who had similar playing styles to Fowler. But they didn't have anyone like McIlrath; a crease-clearing, big, nasty defenseman.


So IDK, maybe they do take Lafreniere, but I could also see them opting for Byfield at #1, OR, depending on what the Kings do, trade Lafreniere to the Senators for #3 and #5. That way they could take their top-2 center of the future in Byfield and possibly that their top-pairing LD of the future in Jake Sanderson.


Of course all of this will be moot if we don't win the Lottery tomorrow.
Anak you're last post is well reasoned....  
Torrag : 8/9/2020 11:59 pm : link
but the Rangers, and everyone else, are taking Lafreniere #1 overall. The next best rated prospect isn't that close. You never leave that kind of talent differential on the board, in any sport, unless you are trading the pick and get an overpay haul of a return.
RE: Anak you're last post is well reasoned....  
Anakim : 8/10/2020 12:01 am : link
In comment 14946925 Torrag said:
Quote:
but the Rangers, and everyone else, are taking Lafreniere #1 overall. The next best rated prospect isn't that close. You never leave that kind of talent differential on the board, in any sport, unless you are trading the pick and get an overpay haul of a return.


IDK. I really don't know and I'm not so well-versed on the prospects right now, but I do know Byfield has a ton of potential and is projected to be a first-line C all the way. Centers are always more valuable than wingers and much harder to find.
The top prospect tier is a one man gang...  
Torrag : 8/10/2020 12:05 am : link
as it was with Chase Young in the NFL Draft. It's that much of a done deal. Book it.
The Q  
pjcas18 : 8/10/2020 12:09 am : link
has some of the best players ever. No idea why anyone in hockey should be admired with a reputation of not taking players from the Q.

Sidney Crosby and Mario Lemieux aren't good enough or fit your scheme? Nathan MacKninnon isn't your brand of hockey? Ray Bourque had a lot of holes in his game?

If the Rangers didn't have players like Panarin, Trouba, and Z and Kreider on the roster I could possibly see bypassing Lafreniere for a combo of Byfield and Drysdale or Stutzle (who I think could wind up like a Tarasenko) and Drysdale if OTT is willing to trade (for example) - because Byfield needs a couple years.

But with those players on the roster today they would be wasting prime years of highly paid players. Lafreniere is the better prospect by a wide margin and most likely to have an impact in the next 2 - 3 years.

RE: The Q  
Anakim : 8/10/2020 12:33 am : link
In comment 14946931 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
has some of the best players ever. No idea why anyone in hockey should be admired with a reputation of not taking players from the Q.

Sidney Crosby and Mario Lemieux aren't good enough or fit your scheme? Nathan MacKninnon isn't your brand of hockey? Ray Bourque had a lot of holes in his game?

If the Rangers didn't have players like Panarin, Trouba, and Z and Kreider on the roster I could possibly see bypassing Lafreniere for a combo of Byfield and Drysdale or Stutzle (who I think could wind up like a Tarasenko) and Drysdale if OTT is willing to trade (for example) - because Byfield needs a couple years.

But with those players on the roster today they would be wasting prime years of highly paid players. Lafreniere is the better prospect by a wide margin and most likely to have an impact in the next 2 - 3 years.


It really is a mystery. Since 2014, the Rangers have only drafted 2 players from the Q.

If they do take Lafreniere, they could roll 3 lines deep for the next few years. You'd have Panarin, Kreider, and Laf on the left side. Kakko, Kravtsov, and Buchnevich (and possibly Chytil/Gauthier) on the right. And Zibanejad as the 1C. Question then becomes who will be the 2C and 3C.
Kravtsov  
pjcas18 : 8/10/2020 12:56 am : link
can play C.

What was he playing in Hartford?

In the WJC I think he was a C and did it well.

And while it's a long shot I also think Lafreniere has the hockey IQ to play C. Not many players move from W to C in the pros (it's usually the opposite), so it's not likely but he plays like a C. When Gretzky watched Lafreniere and talked about him he compared him to Messier and Gilbert Perreault - both centers (mostly).

....  
BrettNYG10 : 8/10/2020 9:34 am : link
Lafreneire was far and away the best player on the ice during the WJC. It was like a cheat code.

I can't imagine anyone not picking him.
RE: Kravtsov  
Anakim : 8/10/2020 10:05 am : link
In comment 14946937 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
can play C.

What was he playing in Hartford?

In the WJC I think he was a C and did it well.

And while it's a long shot I also think Lafreniere has the hockey IQ to play C. Not many players move from W to C in the pros (it's usually the opposite), so it's not likely but he plays like a C. When Gretzky watched Lafreniere and talked about him he compared him to Messier and Gilbert Perreault - both centers (mostly).


Krav was purely a winger in Hartford. He played center a grand total of 11 games in the last 3 years, and that was all out of necessity in the U20.
Rangers  
PaulN : 8/10/2020 10:09 am : link
Pick 10th if Minnesota or Winnepeg win the lottery, otherwise 11th, unless we win the lottery.
Rangers  
PaulN : 8/10/2020 12:24 pm : link
Pick 10th if Minnesota or Winnepeg win the lottery, otherwise 11th, unless we win the lottery.
Just please send him out west  
JayBinQueens : 8/10/2020 12:28 pm : link
50% chance he ends up in either Nashville, Winnipeg, Minnesota or Edmonton. I'll take those chances
RE: ....  
Mike in NY : 8/10/2020 12:29 pm : link
In comment 14946988 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Lafreneire was far and away the best player on the ice during the WJC. It was like a cheat code.

I can't imagine anyone not picking him.


I agree, but what if Ottawa offered 3rd and 5th overall plus more for that pick?
RE: Just please send him out west  
Mike in NY : 8/10/2020 12:30 pm : link
In comment 14947099 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
50% chance he ends up in either Nashville, Winnipeg, Minnesota or Edmonton. I'll take those chances


I am not a Rangers fan, but I have no issue with him ending up in Minnesota and that giving the Rangers pick #10 versus #11. Don't necessarily want him on Nashville or Winnipeg because they have a lot of other talent already. Minnesota needs way more than just 1 player.
RE: RE: ....  
BrettNYG10 : 8/10/2020 1:02 pm : link
In comment 14947100 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 14946988 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


Lafreneire was far and away the best player on the ice during the WJC. It was like a cheat code.

I can't imagine anyone not picking him.



I agree, but what if Ottawa offered 3rd and 5th overall plus more for that pick?


I think that's really interesting. I'm not a big draft guy anymore, so I don't know how well thought of the rest of the top five are. 3 + 5 and another big piece might be enough to change my mind.
What kills me is some say lottery is rigged  
Carl in CT : 8/10/2020 4:46 pm : link
If other owners found out or the general public that sport would lose all credibility. It’s luck folks. Pure luck. Anything else is just not true.
RE: What kills me is some say lottery is rigged  
MetsAreBack : 8/10/2020 5:01 pm : link
In comment 14947285 Carl in CT said:
Quote:
If other owners found out or the general public that sport would lose all credibility. It’s luck folks. Pure luck. Anything else is just not true.


I think thats obvious to most. This is a league that has penalized its largest markets for more than a decade with absurdly low salary caps and no adjustments for cost of living and local taxes - penalizing Canadian markets, NYC, California markets, etc - so if they wanted to give their flagship franchises a better chance to win, there would be much better ways of doing that than rigging lotteries.
If the Rangers don't win, it's rigged.  
BrettNYG10 : 8/10/2020 5:50 pm : link
If they do, it's fine.
Here's the way I see it:  
Anakim : 8/10/2020 5:52 pm : link
If the Penguins win, it's rigged
If the Oilers win, it's a joke
If the Rangers win, all will be right in the world
RE: Here's the way I see it:  
Mike in NY : 8/10/2020 5:57 pm : link
In comment 14947300 Anakim said:
Quote:
If the Penguins win, it's rigged
If the Oilers win, it's a joke
If the Rangers win, all will be right in the world


If Leafs win, it is definitely rigged
Anyone but the penguins  
Torrag : 8/10/2020 6:02 pm : link
...I'd even pass on our 12.5% chance to insure they don't get him.

FUCK YEAH  
KevinBBWC : 8/10/2020 6:17 pm : link
LETS GO RANGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Congratulations  
Mike in NY : 8/10/2020 6:17 pm : link
Rangers fans
Yeah baby!  
NYerInMA : 8/10/2020 6:18 pm : link
#1!
Hahahahahahaha  
Kyle in NY : 8/10/2020 6:18 pm : link
YES!!!!
Holyyyyy Fuckkkkkk  
Torrag : 8/10/2020 6:22 pm : link
We got it!!!!!

We got it!!!!!

We got it!!!!!
We did it!  
BrettNYG10 : 8/10/2020 6:25 pm : link
.
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