NFT: Marlins at Mets Game 2. Peterson

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@AnthonyDiComo
Marcus Stroman (left calf tear) threw five innings and 80-something pitches in his latest simulated game on Thursday. He is moving "better," per Luis Rojas, but is still scheduled for another sim game next week before he can rejoin the rotation.

keep Peterson in the rotation. Replace Wacha with Stroman. Porccello stays as #5 as he's not really a BP arm.

Crushing lefties too.

Looking more like a #3 than the #5 many expected. Solid, solid, solid.

I don't remember him making this many good defensive plays all last year. His arm is obviously plus plus wherever he plays.

More than adequate for 3B

power and velocity are both certainly important but there are lots of ways to be a good baseball player.

The thing I liked most about Peterson so far is how well he's kept his pitch counts down. Currently 64 pitches through 4, 8 and 9 guys coming up for Marlins so hopefully on track to get through 6 or 7.

Not awful. Let's win tomorrow, though, plz.

d'oh!

In comment 14946266 Eric on Li said:

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I don't remember him making this many good defensive plays all last year. His arm is obviously plus plus wherever he plays.

His advanced metrics (OAA) actually liked him there last year and it is his natural position. He has a bazooka too. I like him there. Hope he sticks.

Alonso heating up a little. If anything can wake this team up in a hurry, that's it.

innings eater. Need players like that on the team.

and our pockets are suddenly bottomless, I dont even want much. I want to bring back what we have (Stroman, Wilson, Betances, etc) on a few friendly deals and I'd like to extend some of our big homegrown players (Conforto, Syndergaard, Nimmo) and yes I know some of those extensions might just be called mega deals...

But the ONE move I would splurge on would be going after Realmuto and letting Ramos walk.

Thats about it. Let's watch this team continue to grow. Sandy set us up well for many years to come if we can keep it together and I bet that team is still under the LT.

Wright, Cespedes, Lowrie, Ramos money moves on.

for better defense with our pitching. deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, Peterson, and hopefully Stroman is a very solid rotation. Add in a a much better defense, moving Cano to DH, Gimenez to 2B, JD at 3rd, McNeil in left/2B. With Nimmo probably being the weak spot in Center. But you can replace him late in games. Solid Power/Contact.

Hopefully bullpen with Diaz, Lugo, Familia, Drew Smith and some others developing. Hopeful Betances regains his velocity otherwise he's just a JAG.

totally agree with Realmuto. I'd also pick up option on Ramos as backup. Really load up on that position. I'd also be interested in building back our farm system. I wonder if we could grab someone for Dom

its unparralled in modern ML history. Nearly 5 mph since 2016. I wonder what the secret sauce is.
https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-mets/new-york-mets-ace-jacob-degrom-has-added-velocity-at-an-unparalleled-rate/ - ( New Window )

In comment 14946291 CMicks3110 said:

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for better defense with our pitching. deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, Peterson, and hopefully Stroman is a very solid rotation. Add in a a much better defense, moving Cano to DH, Gimenez to 2B, JD at 3rd, McNeil in left/2B. With Nimmo probably being the weak spot in Center. But you can replace him late in games. Solid Power/Contact. Hopefully bullpen with Diaz, Lugo, Familia, Drew Smith and some others developing. Hopeful Betances regains his velocity otherwise he's just a JAG.

And you know... there's too many pieces for not enough spots in what you just laid out... and I dont care one bit. Tired of worrying about Smith getting playing time, Gimenez getting playing time, etc etc. Those things ALWAYS work out. 2 weeks into the season multiple guys are out and everyone ends up playing anyway. So Im not trading away Smith, Davis, Rosario, or anyone else either. Keep everyone.

In comment 14946293 CMicks3110 said:

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totally agree with Realmuto. I'd also pick up option on Ramos as backup. Really load up on that position. I'd also be interested in building back our farm system. I wonder if we could grab someone for Dom

I dont think we are paying 15 million for a backup C. But Ramos can walk. C-ya. Give me Realmuto and ill be happy as a pig in shit with Nido Ali Sanchez as his backup.

In comment 14946294 CMicks3110 said:

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its unparralled in modern ML history. Nearly 5 mph since 2016. I wonder what the secret sauce is. https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-mets/new-york-mets-ace-jacob-degrom-has-added-velocity-at-an-unparalleled-rate/ - ( New Window )

He's mentioned it many times. He increased his throwing days in between starts. Went from one to two I believe. Wheeler copied him and got an uptick in velocity as well.

Gsellman back. Mets really need him.

And Im not even joking.

and Brach still hasn't even been activated.

Lugo
Smith
Sugardits
Wilson
Betances
Hughes
Shreve
Gsellman
Familia
Sewald

A lot of useful pieces there if we can figure out how to use them correctly.

though I worry about defensive fall off (or catcher fall off in general) it's worth the risk.

More importantly though I hope Cohen comes in and gets Conforto and Syndergaard extended for 3 or 4 extra seasons fairly quickly.

McNeil and JDD can fill 3b and LF, let the best 3b win.

Gimenez has looked so dynamic I think he will lock down either 2b or SS sooner rather then later. His quickness and smoothness is impressive.

Which basically leaves Dom + Cano for DH and mixing in when guys need games off.

This team is going to have a really strong lineup for the next few years and most of it is set, so the focus really needs to be strong defensive catcher and CF to continue improving the defense. And obviously continued $ investment in the pitching from the new owner.

obviously SSS but that's what this whole season is going to be, so the trends are interesting.

Defense has improved by DRS from last in the league about a week ago to 24th, and getting closer to neutral overall (-3).

Starters have been top 10 most of the year, which is solid without Stroman.

Bullpen has actually improved from last in the league to middle of the pick (17th).

Offense is 14th. 3rd highest team BA in baseball. 2nd highest OBP. Surprisingly they are 19th in homers, so power has been the early culprit (and obviously getting the big hits to break games open).

But all in all things seem to be heading in the right direction. As they have gotten better defenders in the lineup the defense has stabilized. The hitters will eventually get hot, and if this is their "cold", look out. Current starters may regress a little but Stroman returning should offset any regression.

So really it all comes down to the BP. I like the way Rojas is mixing and matching now, though I do continue to find it unfathomable that they don't try Familia in the role he was so effective in. Yes he's going to be wild sometimes, but his stuff is not that of a 5th/6th inning guy.

for 3-4 year deals. They both will be one year from FA and will want to bet on themselves most likely unless they are getting offered pretty close to what they would command in FA anyway.

Conforto is a Boras client. I think he's getting 7/180 or something along those lines. Syndergaard, due to his age, is probably still getting something close to what Wheeler got assuming he proves his health second half of 2021.

I still would be happy paying those guys that much though. Where you can maybe save some money is by buying up Alonso, McNeil, Rosario, etc arbitration years and maybe seeing if they would add on another year in return for doing so.

Either way, we get an owner with endless pockets, I dont want to see our homegrown players walk anymore. Thats like the number one thing I want. And Conforto and Syndergaard are young enough where they should be kept.

given the environment and everything else I think he takes it. Don't forget there could be a work stoppage which would delay his big payday even further. With cy young/comeback player of the year sure maybe he could command Cole money, but with a bad year or another injury he's getting Matt Harvey money. Wheeler money is right in the middle of those 2 outcomes and also life changing money for generations. Coming back off TJS to put up a top 15 season isn't exactly a slam dunk either.

Conforto is trickier because of Boras but no chance he gets $180m from anyone. None. He's a COF'er. Ozuna only got 1 year 18m last year in an offseason with no revenue issues and his numbers weren't far off Conforto's at all. Again, in this atmosphere, where FA spending will be way down bc revenues this year are going to be down, a 4x20m deal (3 year extension) would seem awfully difficult to turn down.

I'm all for extending Alonso and McNeil as well, but there's less worry there due to how many years they have left and their ages already being older than your typical 2nd year players. And with the potential work stoppage coming up, may as well wait until after they see what the new structure of things is. But I'd also have no issue getting a deal done with either if they are interested in an Acuna-style deal. Especially if either of the other 2 guys pass on deals and the new owner wants to send a message that the days of Freddie Coupons really are over.

when he hits FA and I also think he's just a much better hitter (career wRC+ 125 to 113). I think if Conforto takes even a small step up from that over a sustained period either this year or next year... he's gonna get a pretty big deal.

Guess we'll see. I'd love to have him cheaper.

add George Springer for cf too. I believe he is from CT, so coming back east might be tempting for him if we get Cohen as the owner

last 5 years here's the list of OF'ers who got more than $100m:

'19 Bryce Harper $330m (Boras client)
'18 Justin Upton $106m
'16 Yoenis Cespedes $110m
'15 Jason Heyward $184m

That's the entire list. Cespedes and Heyward were disaster contracts almost right away. Harper is obviously in a rare situation where he was 25 entering FA as a multiple time MVP candidate.

Upton is an optimistic but fair comp for Conforto, though he was coming off a 5 war season where he posted 35hr/109 rbis which was a cut above Conforto's best year to date. And he fortunately hit FA in a year after record setting revenues, not a shortened season with no attendance and upcoming labor negotiation.

$20m AAV is probably about the right number for Conforto and 4 years total is probably right around the right length. On the open market off a big year perhaps he'd push closer to Upton's deal, but 1 year early with everything going on that's a fair deal and certainly a much better outcome than risking being the next Ozuna (who is also a Boras client and saw first hand even pre-pandemic that the downside is 1 year $18m).

Conforto’s bat. He’s a lot better than Upton too. If Conforto takes another step forward, he’s closer to Harper (career wRC+ 138) than he is those guys. But we still have a year and a half. We’ll see.

going. Nationals with Corbin and Scherzer are looking on Monday and Tuesday.

In comment 14946478 ZGiants98 said:

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Conforto’s bat. He’s a lot better than Upton too. If Conforto takes another step forward, he’s closer to Harper (career wRC+ 138) than he is those guys. But we still have a year and a half. We’ll see.

Justin Upton -
4x all star
4x MVP vote getter (highest 4th)
3x silver slugger
(accomplished all 3 in his last contract year 2017)

Bryce Harper -
6x all star
1x MVP ('15)
3x MVP vote getter

Michael Conforto -
1x all star ('17)
0x MVP vote getter

You really think the 3rd best position player on his own team is closer to an MVP award winner than an MVP award candidate when he's accomplished neither?

And Im done talking about it. You can believe he'll get a 4 year deal or less. Ill believe he'll get a 6-7 year deal. Time will tell.

In comment 14946431 Eric on Li said:

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last 5 years here's the list of OF'ers who got more than $100m: '19 Bryce Harper $330m (Boras client) '18 Justin Upton $106m '16 Yoenis Cespedes $110m '15 Jason Heyward $184m That's the entire list. Cespedes and Heyward were disaster contracts almost right away. Harper is obviously in a rare situation where he was 25 entering FA as a multiple time MVP candidate. Upton is an optimistic but fair comp for Conforto, though he was coming off a 5 war season where he posted 35hr/109 rbis which was a cut above Conforto's best year to date. And he fortunately hit FA in a year after record setting revenues, not a shortened season with no attendance and upcoming labor negotiation. $20m AAV is probably about the right number for Conforto and 4 years total is probably right around the right length. On the open market off a big year perhaps he'd push closer to Upton's deal, but 1 year early with everything going on that's a fair deal and certainly a much better outcome than risking being the next Ozuna (who is also a Boras client and saw first hand even pre-pandemic that the downside is 1 year $18m).

I have no dog in this fight but that list is incomplete.

I was quickly browsing FA from those years so I may have missed someone - though I don't think I'm missing anything that would make it even semi-rational to think that Boras is going to get Conforto literally 10x what he just got Ozuna in January with baseball revenues likely falling by more than 50% this year vs. last.