It's fair to cut our new Head Coach (and his brand-spanking new coaching staff) a little slack this season, especially with all the uncertainty created by the pandemic.
But even under the best of circumstances, how many wins can we reasonably expect in Joe Judge's first season?
How about 3 and 6 wins given the first year Head Coach performances of Bill Parcells (1983): 3-12-1 and Bill Belichick (1991): 6-10?
How is the lack of preseason/spring workouts/light camp going to affect everyone? Is Judge more or less prepared for this?
The conventional thinking is the Giants are going to have a really bad record this year. That's the safe bet.
I'm not so sure.
5-year avg: 5.8 wins
10-year avg: 7 wins
Pick your poison.
No idea how the systems will be implemented.
Every team is dealing with this. Many teams have first year HCs, including 2 others in our division. First year HCs have won before. Why can't they win this year?
Good coaches are good coaches. It's all relative. Every team is in the same boat. Stop making excuses.
I think if Thomas shows he belongs right out of the gate the Giants will surprise.
Not to sound like a dick, but this is just more lazy analysis without facts or data to back it up. And it's pretty much been the popular refrain all summer long. I was called a hopeless idiot on an earlier thread but at least I am providing facts to backup the claim that this talk might be just talk. If you're going to scream from the hilltops that I am grossly mistaken, back it up with some shred of proof. Otherwise, I am sticking to my guns that the good coaches and well run teams will out pace the poorly run teams, covid restrictions or not.
Yes, the dynamics are vastly different. Two untested DBs in Seehorn and Sparks has one and done career years as shutdown corners (more or less) and Michael Strahan emerged. Keith Hamilton stepped up. We had no passing game that year, but ran well enough with Charles Way and Tiki was an effective change of pace third down back.
If a couple of unknowns become game changers, the Giants keep games close and get a break here and there, who knows? Not likely, but also not ridiculous to think something similar could happen this year.
Belechick inherited a losing team and had to implement new systems on offense and defense. Parcells inherited a team with systems in place that had been 4-5 in strike year. The record got worse.
This year is unique. The closest may be a year when a strike delayed training camp. I don’t know if any other comparisons are worthwhile.
It was posted last week that since 2008 first-year head coaches made the playoffs about 29% of the time. Not suggesting Coach Judge cannot have a successful first year without making the playoffs because progress on the Giants can most certainly be made w/o a playoff team. But if you go with the idea that playoffs basically suggest a .500 or better record and generally a team that is in the top half of the league then at least you are speaking to a target.
So can Judge lead the Giants to at least 8+ wins and be a playoff team in his first year? Yes.
Is it more probable he will not? Yes.
And can he be deemed a successful first year head coach without getting to 8 wins or the playoffs...Yes.
Belechick inherited a losing team and had to implement new systems on offense and defense. Parcells inherited a team with systems in place that had been 4-5 in strike year. The record got worse.
This year is unique. The closest may be a year when a strike delayed training camp. I don’t know if any other comparisons are worthwhile.
Lockout year 2011 probably comes pretty close to current situation. Was there improvement among first time rookie HCs? Were some rookie HCs promotions from within?
This are reasons why I wouldn't be so quick to assume disaster.
BUT... (and I fully realize I am contradicting myself right now)... I still have to think that the Eagles have an inherent advantage because the bulk of their roster already knows the playbook, terminology, offensive/defensive/ST schemes, coaching/player personalities/dynamics, etc. These guys will have to THINK less and be able to REACT more.
All that said, I stand by what I said months ago, this is still largely a QB driven league. The Giants' fortunes will largely be determined by Daniel Jones. In other words, who has the best QB in the division now?
It would also be nice if Jones was assisted by a respectable NYG defense.
If the team is competitve and a tough out vs a joke - that's how I will deem Judge a success or failure.
Asking for much else is a fools errand.
It was posted last week that since 2008 first-year head coaches made the playoffs about 29% of the time. Not suggesting Coach Judge cannot have a successful first year without making the playoffs because progress on the Giants can most certainly be made w/o a playoff team. But if you go with the idea that playoffs basically suggest a .500 or better record and generally a team that is in the top half of the league then at least you are speaking to a target.
So can Judge lead the Giants to at least 8+ wins and be a playoff team in his first year? Yes.
Is it more probable he will not? Yes.
And can he be deemed a successful first year head coach without getting to 8 wins or the playoffs...Yes.
I have provided clear cut facts that first year HCs can and will succeed. That's a lot more than someone insisting that first year systems or coaches will struggle this year just because they said so.
With all that said, who knows how the Giants do this year. So many things on D need to go right and even the most hopeful fan has to admit the D isn't exactly bursting at the seams with talent. There is some decent talent there, but most of the kids are 3rd and mid round picks. Really only Lawrence, McKinney/Peppers and Williams have any blue chip pedigree to them and WIlliams might be a stretch at this point. He's solid, but his upside is limited. Even the former 3 aren't exactly blue chip, more red chip as they were all mid to late first rounders or second rounders. The rest of the D is 3rd to mid round talent. What's the real upside? Average? Slightly above? The D needs more blue chip talent even on its best day unless you truly believe guys like Ximines, Carter, Love and Connelly will all turn into pro bowl or upper echelon talents.
Conversely, the offense has 3 clear cut blue chip studs and that't not counting solid known commodities like Shep, Tate, Hernandez, or even Engram. Also Slayton.
The O has a ton of talent and it still needs seasoning and some luck to come together. The D has much more against it.
I just can't buy into the theory that knew staffs will struggle this season because we have seen new staffs not the crap out of the NFL time and time again. Why should this year be any different? Every team is in the same boat.
This are reasons why I wouldn't be so quick to assume disaster.
BUT... (and I fully realize I am contradicting myself right now)... I still have to think that the Eagles have an inherent advantage because the bulk of their roster already knows the playbook, terminology, offensive/defensive/ST schemes, coaching/player personalities/dynamics, etc. These guys will have to THINK less and be able to REACT more.
All that said, I stand by what I said months ago, this is still largely a QB driven league. The Giants' fortunes will largely be determined by Daniel Jones. In other words, who has the best QB in the division now?
It would also be nice if Jones was assisted by a respectable NYG defense.
I agree Eric. gun to my head, the Eagles are best team in the east followed by Dallas.
I have my eye on Philly and that OL of theirs though. Could be a house of cards this year. One can hope.
If they’re a competitive team by mid-season I’ll be very happy. If the players are fighting out there, I’ll be happy. If the right decisions are made, but poorly executed, if they get fixed, I’ll be happy. I won’t mind how many wins he gets this season unless we have potential for a real playoff run, which never seemed very likely.
Looking at the schedule right now, I'd say this is a 6-10 team, but who the hell knows? They still suck. I just hope the arrow is pointed up after this year and they continue to draft well. It's up to Judge to develop them now.
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Moreso giving one-off examples of a myriad of different thoughts and questions on the general topic. Not even sure you have mentioned what your threshold of "success" is in your little soapbox rant here.
It was posted last week that since 2008 first-year head coaches made the playoffs about 29% of the time. Not suggesting Coach Judge cannot have a successful first year without making the playoffs because progress on the Giants can most certainly be made w/o a playoff team. But if you go with the idea that playoffs basically suggest a .500 or better record and generally a team that is in the top half of the league then at least you are speaking to a target.
So can Judge lead the Giants to at least 8+ wins and be a playoff team in his first year? Yes.
Is it more probable he will not? Yes.
And can he be deemed a successful first year head coach without getting to 8 wins or the playoffs...Yes.
I have provided clear cut facts that first year HCs can and will succeed. That's a lot more than someone insisting that first year systems or coaches will struggle this year just because they said so.
With all that said, who knows how the Giants do this year. So many things on D need to go right and even the most hopeful fan has to admit the D isn't exactly bursting at the seams with talent. There is some decent talent there, but most of the kids are 3rd and mid round picks. Really only Lawrence, McKinney/Peppers and Williams have any blue chip pedigree to them and WIlliams might be a stretch at this point. He's solid, but his upside is limited. Even the former 3 aren't exactly blue chip, more red chip as they were all mid to late first rounders or second rounders. The rest of the D is 3rd to mid round talent. What's the real upside? Average? Slightly above? The D needs more blue chip talent even on its best day unless you truly believe guys like Ximines, Carter, Love and Connelly will all turn into pro bowl or upper echelon talents.
Conversely, the offense has 3 clear cut blue chip studs and that't not counting solid known commodities like Shep, Tate, Hernandez, or even Engram. Also Slayton.
The O has a ton of talent and it still needs seasoning and some luck to come together. The D has much more against it.
I just can't buy into the theory that knew staffs will struggle this season because we have seen new staffs not the crap out of the NFL time and time again. Why should this year be any different? Every team is in the same boat.
Again, you're all over the place without defining your point well.
You say "First Year HCs can succeed"...no kidding, some do so this is like saying the sun shines sometimes. A large majority do not, at least not in their first year which is why you hear posters saying just that, not because they just say so. And I don't even know how you defined succeed once again as you like to toss it around casually.
And by the way, the Defense is more flushed with high round picks than most defenses not based in San Fran. And it could have had Baker as another 1st rounder if he wasn't a moron this spring.
Williams - 1st round
Lawrence - 1st round
Tomlinson - 2nd round
Fackrell - 3rd round
Golden - 2nd round
Martinez - 4th round
Connelly - 5th round
Ballentine - 6th round
Bradberry - 2nd round
Holmes - 4th round
Peppers - 1st round
McKinney - 1st round
Nevertheless, I think the finer point on the Defense is that these guys will all be playing a new scheme and most haven't played with one another much, if not at all. New defenses just don't get thrown together and mesh after 14 practices, they are going to whipped early on. Hopefully, it becomes less and less over time but likely not much during this 16 game season.
I don't think its a stretch to buy into the theory that our first year HC will struggle.
One thing this team is becoming other then young is deep. The top end talent hasnt emerged but bottom of the roster has been comprised of guys who are at least promosing. We shouldnt need to pick up 6 guys on waivers after camp.
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In comment 14948919 LBH15 said:
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Moreso giving one-off examples of a myriad of different thoughts and questions on the general topic. Not even sure you have mentioned what your threshold of "success" is in your little soapbox rant here.
It was posted last week that since 2008 first-year head coaches made the playoffs about 29% of the time. Not suggesting Coach Judge cannot have a successful first year without making the playoffs because progress on the Giants can most certainly be made w/o a playoff team. But if you go with the idea that playoffs basically suggest a .500 or better record and generally a team that is in the top half of the league then at least you are speaking to a target.
So can Judge lead the Giants to at least 8+ wins and be a playoff team in his first year? Yes.
Is it more probable he will not? Yes.
And can he be deemed a successful first year head coach without getting to 8 wins or the playoffs...Yes.
I have provided clear cut facts that first year HCs can and will succeed. That's a lot more than someone insisting that first year systems or coaches will struggle this year just because they said so.
With all that said, who knows how the Giants do this year. So many things on D need to go right and even the most hopeful fan has to admit the D isn't exactly bursting at the seams with talent. There is some decent talent there, but most of the kids are 3rd and mid round picks. Really only Lawrence, McKinney/Peppers and Williams have any blue chip pedigree to them and WIlliams might be a stretch at this point. He's solid, but his upside is limited. Even the former 3 aren't exactly blue chip, more red chip as they were all mid to late first rounders or second rounders. The rest of the D is 3rd to mid round talent. What's the real upside? Average? Slightly above? The D needs more blue chip talent even on its best day unless you truly believe guys like Ximines, Carter, Love and Connelly will all turn into pro bowl or upper echelon talents.
Conversely, the offense has 3 clear cut blue chip studs and that't not counting solid known commodities like Shep, Tate, Hernandez, or even Engram. Also Slayton.
The O has a ton of talent and it still needs seasoning and some luck to come together. The D has much more against it.
I just can't buy into the theory that knew staffs will struggle this season because we have seen new staffs not the crap out of the NFL time and time again. Why should this year be any different? Every team is in the same boat.
Again, you're all over the place without defining your point well.
You say "First Year HCs can succeed"...no kidding, some do so this is like saying the sun shines sometimes. A large majority do not, at least not in their first year which is why you hear posters saying just that, not because they just say so. And I don't even know how you defined succeed once again as you like to toss it around casually.
And by the way, the Defense is more flushed with high round picks than most defenses not based in San Fran. And it could have had Baker as another 1st rounder if he wasn't a moron this spring.
Williams - 1st round
Lawrence - 1st round
Tomlinson - 2nd round
Fackrell - 3rd round
Golden - 2nd round
Martinez - 4th round
Connelly - 5th round
Ballentine - 6th round
Bradberry - 2nd round
Holmes - 4th round
Peppers - 1st round
McKinney - 1st round
Nevertheless, I think the finer point on the Defense is that these guys will all be playing a new scheme and most haven't played with one another much, if not at all. New defenses just don't get thrown together and mesh after 14 practices, they are going to whipped early on. Hopefully, it becomes less and less over time but likely not much during this 16 game season.
I don't think its a stretch to buy into the theory that our first year HC will struggle.
I am not all over the place at all. I just posted different takes on why the team might struggle this year. How the hell is this so hard to understand? I don't think it's fair to proclaim that first year HCs will definitely struggle this season simply because they are dealing with the covid restrictions. Ive been pretty consistent.
Also, i am not trying to start a debate about the talent on D. Just don't think it's littered with the same number of blue chip prospects as the O might be. Not really here or there, might be better for another thread.
So 28 out of 62 were 1st year coaches of their teams. That's 45%.
I am going to be patient with Judge, but I am not going to sit here this time next season saying 2020 was an unfair marker against his first season as HC and we should throw out the 3-13 results because of the covid crap. I want to see progress this season. We should demand it. If these player look like ass, that's a problem. If Jones is fumbling all over the joint and throws 19 INTs with only 19 TDs, are we going to be giving everyone a pass?
We need to see progress. No one is getting fired, but i'll be pretty concerned if the Giants look like the worst NFC team going yet again. Can we beat an eastern rival other than Washington?
Joe Judge has never been a Head Coach before -- but he has made what appear to be a lot of good decisions - he has hired coaches with head coaching experience - and hopefully that levels the playing field some
Having said that, there is no way to know, but I will say this: hopefully Judge will be more Mike Vrabel than the rest of the Belichick tree. Vrabel was 9-7 in year one on a team that was not so great, with a lot of no names, and was 9-7 in year two and made it into the playoffs.
I like Judge's intelligence, his attitude and a lot of what he has done and said. One thing Crennel, McDaniels and Patricia have in common is outwardly they have zero to einsy beensie personalities, and they play things very close to the vest. They surround themselves in the aura, attitude and demeanor of Belichick. Vrabel and Judge have not done that. They have been more of I'm me and I'm not someone else and I'm going to run things the way I see fit and emphasizing certain basics, mentality and details that football players should be focused on.
In a season where there is amore level playing field in terms of no preseason, I like the chances of someone going into this in the right way -- I like what he's surrounded himself with.
For me the only question that really needs to be answered is on the defensive side of the football. Can this coaching staff make a young and unproven backfield work? That is the main question for me coming into the season. Vrabel did it -- and he didn't have quite the defensive line the Giants have --
fingers crossed -- I'm hoping they are going to capture some lightning in a bottle here
I like Bradbury, I liked Ballentine a lot early in the season and think he has the goods. Julian Love and the rookies they are the x factor to me -- Peppers and McKinley are both good players in my opinion so there's that for pluses -- one of the rookies Darnay Holmes seems very promising to me too
Our linebacker corps is better than we're used to in recent memory -- I like Xman, Fackrel, Connelly and Martinez -- and I like what's in front in Williams, Lawrence and Tomlinson.
We shall see -- fingers crossed!!!!
So 28 out of 62 were 1st year coaches of their teams. That's 45%.
And there you have it. I was too lazy to check the real numbers but off the top of my head could think of close to a dozen first year HCs that did just fine.
Maybe that's an unfair comparison since those first year HCs weren't dealing with the issues of today, but that's all we can go on, and I have a hard time believing that a first year HC who pushed the right buttons in 1997 can't push the right buttons in 2020.
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year head coaches having success are unicorns. Since the Coach of the Year award has been given out from 1957, 28 of the winners were 1st year head coaches of their teams, including such Giant coaches as Allie Sherman, Dan reeves and Jim Fassel
So 28 out of 62 were 1st year coaches of their teams. That's 45%.
And there you have it. I was too lazy to check the real numbers but off the top of my head could think of close to a dozen first year HCs that did just fine.
Maybe that's an unfair comparison since those first year HCs weren't dealing with the issues of today, but that's all we can go on, and I have a hard time believing that a first year HC who pushed the right buttons in 1997 can't push the right buttons in 2020.
You don't even have to go back far at all. 2 out of the last 3 coaches of the year were 1st year guys.
Matt Nagy and Sean McVay
I am not all over the place at all. I just posted different takes on why the team might struggle this year. How the hell is this so hard to understand? I don't think it's fair to proclaim that first year HCs will definitely struggle this season simply because they are dealing with the covid restrictions. Ive been pretty consistent.
I don't think it's fair to proclaim first year HCs will DEFINITELY struggle either.
If that is being phrased that way by your debate opposition, then I think most anyone would agree with you. I didn't see it phrases that way above.
In the end, first year HCs have a ton on their plate and definitely moreso than other HCs. Covid isn't doing them any favors, but neither of those factors definitely prevent them from having a successful first year, only probably.
Coaching matters more in football than any other sport. I understand the new scheme comments, but I am not sure our player's ability was maximized by the previous regime. Some may perform better this year - or not.
I am excited about this year (if they play) and think the team could be good - not dominant. I will be disappointed if we win less than 7 games.
The season will come down to health, offensive line, and improved defense IMO.
37% of the teams in the league make the playoffs.
If a first-year coach makes playoffs 29% of the time, that is not too far off the average.
Working with new coaches for the first time..
Taking over a team that has won less than 10 games in 3 seasons
Non-existant training camp because of COVID
Rookie QB with new system
I don't see any positives expect interviews and tweets.
Understand the comparisons with success for 1st year coaches and i know that that's the normal thing to do at times. But, and maybe FMiC can check this, but I would bet most that won had some well established QB's and players.
Giants are going in with so many new players, almost new secondary, all new LB's, new pieces to OL and new coaches.
I don't see how you can even make any declaration of anything. Especially wins. I think penalties are going to be a problem. Too many moving parts. Not enough actual time on the field.
Based on the performance of their new team for, say, the past 3 seasons.
So, for example, Joe Judge is walking into a franchise with a .250 winning percentage (12 - 36.)
How have first year coaches performed in similar circumstances?
The Rams were 6-10, 7-9 and 4-12 before McVay.
Let's not make it seem like there aren't teams that have turned things around fairly quickly with a new coach after a few down years
It's just a really unique scenario all around. Having a new coach in a year like this is probably going to hurt us a bit - I think the teams with coaches who have been in place a bit will have an easier time getting going and getting on the same page.
At the same time, because this is such a different season, I think you'll probably see some more parity than normal. There's probably better odds at the unlikely being more likely.
In some respects, that could be a good thing for us.
When it comes to trying to guess how many wins we'll see in a year, I usually pick 3 numbers in succession. The lowest one being the one I expect if we are subject to reasonably bad injury luck and don't get many/any bounces.
The middle one is what I think is most likely assuming a relatively "normal" injury situation or anything totally out of the ordinary.
The high number is basically what I think we can hit if we have good injury luck and things generally break our way.
So, for this year, I'd say...
If luck isn't on our side, we wind up banged up, I think we're looking at 5-11.
If all goes mostly to chalk - we deal with some injuries, but nothing out of the ordinary. Some breaks go our way, some don't. We're probably 6-10.
Reasonably good injury luck and a few key bounces, this team can probably manage 7-9.
Could we flirt with .500? I mean, I wouldn't be stunned - but that's like, absolute best case scenario in my mind where everything goes perfectly and Joe Judge looks like a home run hire.
So, if you'd rather skip right to the end...
6-10 is my best guess.
TB improved from 5 wins to 7, so +2 for Arians
Rookies:
ARZ improved from 3 wins to 5.5 wins/ties, so +2.5 for Klingsbury
DEN improved from 6 wins to 7, so +1 for Fangio
GB improved from 6.5 wins to 13, huge +6.5 for LaFleur
NYJ improved from 4 wins to 7, so +3 for Gase
MIA declined from 7 wins to 5, so -2 for Flores but they also dumped to restructure the team so not too bad.
CINC declined from 6 wins to 2, so -4 for Taylor
CLE declined from 7.5 wins to 6, so -1.5 for Kitchens.
I think its fair to say using 2019 that the rookie HCs fared well and/or held their own.
Lets hope Judge has a LaFleur-type year!
TB improved from 5 wins to 7, so +2 for Arians
Rookies:
ARZ improved from 3 wins to 5.5 wins/ties, so +2.5 for Klingsbury
DEN improved from 6 wins to 7, so +1 for Fangio
GB improved from 6.5 wins to 13, huge +6.5 for LaFleur
NYJ improved from 4 wins to 7, so +3 for Gase
MIA declined from 7 wins to 5, so -2 for Flores but they also dumped to restructure the team so not too bad.
CINC declined from 6 wins to 2, so -4 for Taylor
CLE declined from 7.5 wins to 6, so -1.5 for Kitchens.
I think its fair to say using 2019 that the rookie HCs fared well and/or held their own.
Lets hope Judge has a LaFleur-type year!
Thx good analysis I was too lazy to check for sure !
Please win games this year. That’s all I care about. I know young team whatever, we need to see wins again.
Hopefully that means Gettleman "retires" and the Mara's make as bold a choice for GM as they did HC and the team can stop being a laughing stock.
No fans football is a joke and should be treated that way.
The Rangers losing and getting the #1 pick is the best thing to happen to them in decades. I hope the giants do the same.