Took an antibody test last week because I've been exposed literally hundreds if not a thousand or more times through my job at a retail wine and spirits store in an Orthodox Jewish community.
I've taken modest precautions for most of this time - wearing a mask at work, washing my hands 5 or more times during my 6-8 hour work shifts, and avoiding bringing my hands to my face at all times that I am conscious of them.
I don't wear gloves at all since I figure I can carry the virus in a water droplet from a wine bottle touched (or coughed on) by a customer to my face just as easily on a glove as on my bare skin...
I am reasonably knowledgeable about germs, microbes, viruses, disease spread as well as aseptic technique... I've taken college level undergrad or grad level courses in viruses and microbiology both and did well in those courses...
I dont have antibodies, and I've never had any sign of infection of the virus, none whatsoever.
So how easily is this bug transmitted, really?
Later I will go into some historical comparison between the current Covid-19 pandemic and the 1918 H1N1 malaise... So far this current pandemic is honestly weak sauce compared to that one... So far.
That pandemic killed anywhere from 10% to 30% of the world's population, in a world where far fewer people were 65+ years old, the primary mortality target of this current pandemic. I'd throw out the wild guess that we will have a vaccine against Covid-19 well before it reaches the staggering proportion of the 1918 Spanish flu.
Any thoughts appreciated, but let's keep this wholly apolitical, please. Comments from MDs or other healthcare pros especially appreciated in advance.
There’s virtually no chance anyone will be forced to take a vaccine. But with all highly communicable outbreaks, you’ll probably not be able permitted to do a number of things, like attend school, work in a government building, work in many private sector buildings.
For those who do not want to take the vaccine, I’m confident they’ll continue to wear masks and social distance until the time comes they feel comfortable taking it.
if so, I agree. Unlikely.
But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.
Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.
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I was in Navy and sent overseas so I've had every vaccine known to man and had ZERO issue doing so. This isn't anti vaxxer nonsense. This is all about not taking a vaccine that hasn't been extensively tested.
There’s virtually no chance anyone will be forced to take a vaccine. But with all highly communicable outbreaks, you’ll probably not be able permitted to do a number of things, like attend school, work in a government building, work in many private sector buildings.
For those who do not want to take the vaccine, I’m confident they’ll continue to wear masks and social distance until the time comes they feel comfortable taking it.
This is such a flippant response, which is essentially forcing people to take a vaccine. It would be awesome if I don't have bills to pay, but we all do. You want me to take a vaccine fine, but let's outlaw all fast food, sugar, and all the other stuff that would be for the "greater good" as well. Actually there would be a better argument to ban that stuff because there is no risk to it, as opposed to taking some vaccine that isn't extensively tested.
Talking about people's awful health is the ridiculous 3rd rail we have in this country. Drs can't even get tell fat they are fat and need to lose weight anymore. Where is the movement to tell people to get their health in check? We had someone once in a position of power try to get kids healthy and she was crucified for it. Now I'm going to be excommunicated from society because I don't want to take a unproven vaccine? Makes me want to go postal.
if so, I agree. Unlikely.
But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.
Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.
It's different because these vaccines have years and years of study As opposed to a vaccine that will almost certainly get rushed to market due to overwhelming political pressure.
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what do you mean by forced? Physically dragged into a doctor's office or pharmacy and injected with drugs?
if so, I agree. Unlikely.
But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.
Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.
It's different because these vaccines have years and years of study As opposed to a vaccine that will almost certainly get rushed to market due to overwhelming political pressure.
desperate times call for desperate measures.
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what do you mean by forced? Physically dragged into a doctor's office or pharmacy and injected with drugs?
if so, I agree. Unlikely.
But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.
Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.
It's different because these vaccines have years and years of study As opposed to a vaccine that will almost certainly get rushed to market due to overwhelming political pressure.
The pressure is not political, it’s pandemical. And they’re still going through the same safety trials any other vaccine goes through.
It's also pretty nauseating to see him back on Yankee threads when he hopped on the bandwagon in his 30's and spews a lot of hot air on those threads too acting like he's an expert on everything Yankees.
Looks like it's just you, Mook - but I'll bite...
Not sure what's up with the random attack out of nowhere. I haven't even been here since late last year. Haven't mentioned your name or quoted you a single time since I've been back.
I've also never claimed to be a medical expert or an expert on the virus. I've shared my opinions based on what I've learned; I've provided numbers for New York, where I live. I'm doing the same thing most people are doing. Learning as we go, trying to make the best decisions possible, and looking for ways to get back to normalcy without putting folks in my family and people close to me who are compromised or at higher risk.
Not sure what you're looking for out of my posting on the subject and no one's forcing you to read or react to any of it. Also weird that of the countless posters who have chimed in, you've felt the need to zero-in on me.
Instead of acting like Nitro's cheerleader, why don't you just respond to things I said that seem like "hot air" directly and address it yourself? No reason to hide behind him. If my opinions bother you, be specific and explain why.
As far as the Yankees go...
Seriously? Acting like an expert? I'm just a baseball fan, man. I watch the games and fire off opinions like everyone else does here. It doesn't seem to bother anyone who posts in the threads.
But, I'll do you a favor and no longer post on them since it's so "nauseating"
Imagine being bothered by something like this in a time like we're in right now...
Any time you've posted anything personal here, whether it be about your mom passing, your dog, or anything else, I've always been sure to express condolences, send my best wishes and give any kind words I could. So, apparently I've been wasting my time on someone who doesn't think much of me.
Which is fine. Just surprised by this.
But hey, also thanks for reminding me why I had taken such a long hiatus in the first place. Seems like I made the right call originally.
✌🏻
It’s also willingness to pay, on the part of all parties. For a common cold, even though private individuals MAY be willing to pay, insurers and governments may not. Similarly, given the relatively short time span of a common cold, a lot of people would probably have the mindset that they would seek remedies when they got the cold; but since it would take time to see doctors, it’s likely they wouldn’t get it.
Phased trials are expensive. It’s why orphan drugs (small numbers of patients) were adopted into the patent code. Common coronaviruses likely never pass a cost/benefit.
Sure, if you view it negatively.
the flip side is it leads to innovation, ingenuity, and creativity.
I read the average vaccine takes 12 - 18 months to get approved, if we can cut that down safely, think of how many lives can be saved.
So many of man's impactful innovations were borne out of dire situations.
1. Russia itself, and Russian oligarchs, need cash. Every time they talk, it's "look how many other shitty countries want to buy our shitty drug; buy an advance order now to reserve your place in the queue".
2. Russian scientific prestige used to be something they prided themselves on. Nuclear technology, space technology, etc. It's been 30 years since they have had any chance to reassert themselves (it's a cultural thing). Now is the time.
3. Russian life expectancy, due to a statistical recalculation, has started to increase again, after a relative low point around 2005. If you think about it, life expectancy in Russia today is comparable to life expectancy in Russia in 1965. Over that time, it's increased by about 3 years (if you use older calculations, it's about 1 year). It's been about 8x that in the U.S. People are unhappy there. Got to bring back national pride.
The truth is, nobody really knows. At the end of the day, I can still err on the side of caution while still living my life. What is being asked isn't all that egregious, is it? Wear a mask. Try your best to keep your distance. Would I like to go to a restaurant or bar? Yes. Do I have to go into a restaurant or a bar? No. Same thing for sports, concerts, or any other entertainment.
Unfortunately, this is one of those things where "my bad" isn't going to be good enough if you, me, or anybody unknowingly passes this on to somebody else and they get hurt, or we ourselves just happen to be one of the unlucky ones that this hits the wrong way.
It’s also willingness to pay, on the part of all parties. For a common cold, even though private individuals MAY be willing to pay, insurers and governments may not. Similarly, given the relatively short time span of a common cold, a lot of people would probably have the mindset that they would seek remedies when they got the cold; but since it would take time to see doctors, it’s likely they wouldn’t get it.
Phased trials are expensive. It’s why orphan drugs (small numbers of patients) were adopted into the patent code. Common coronaviruses likely never pass a cost/benefit.
This was going to be my answer. I had a professor in grad school (an allergy researcher) who told me that allergy was a pharmaceutical company’s dream. It doesn’t kill you or cause ultra-serious damage, there’s no cure, but it’s bad enough so you keep coming back to buy medicine. It was a joke but I think that there’s some truth. Common coronaviruses are like that, right? Besides vaccine cost, cold medicines bring in a lot of money and there’s no real moral issue in not curing it.
I’d also imagine it’s much harder to kill something than to treat symptoms (no shit statement of the day), with the attendant cost increases and probability of failure/side effects.
if so, I agree. Unlikely.
But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.
Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.
I imagine there will definitely be scenarios (like the ones I posted) where this vaccine will be added to the list of the required vaccines.
Those scenarios exist today and everyone is free to participate or not. That’s hardly the 1984 scenario Zeke described, and to which I was replying.
It usually does take a long time to get even a vaccine through, but usually that’s a company here and there on a single vaccine. This is a very concerted effort with pharma and government but you also have pretty much every scientist in the world working 24/7 to add to the body of basic knowledge on the virus and the immune response to the virus. That’s wealth of knowledge adding to all of the vaccines and the possible outcomes. So, time frame relative to other drugs or vaccines is probably not analogous.
This was the case with SARS, MERS, H1N1, etc.
And it also is why there was early speculation the same thing would happen with COVID-19
true?
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In comment 14950482 Zeke's Alibi said:
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I was in Navy and sent overseas so I've had every vaccine known to man and had ZERO issue doing so. This isn't anti vaxxer nonsense. This is all about not taking a vaccine that hasn't been extensively tested.
There’s virtually no chance anyone will be forced to take a vaccine. But with all highly communicable outbreaks, you’ll probably not be able permitted to do a number of things, like attend school, work in a government building, work in many private sector buildings.
For those who do not want to take the vaccine, I’m confident they’ll continue to wear masks and social distance until the time comes they feel comfortable taking it.
This is such a flippant response, which is essentially forcing people to take a vaccine. It would be awesome if I don't have bills to pay, but we all do. You want me to take a vaccine fine, but let's outlaw all fast food, sugar, and all the other stuff that would be for the "greater good" as well. Actually there would be a better argument to ban that stuff because there is no risk to it, as opposed to taking some vaccine that isn't extensively tested.
Talking about people's awful health is the ridiculous 3rd rail we have in this country. Drs can't even get tell fat they are fat and need to lose weight anymore. Where is the movement to tell people to get their health in check? We had someone once in a position of power try to get kids healthy and she was crucified for it. Now I'm going to be excommunicated from society because I don't want to take a unproven vaccine? Makes me want to go postal.
That has exactly zero to do with anything. The moment I can catch heart disease or pass it on to my folks silently by breathing on them, I will start worrying about that false comparison.
The mutation, earlier seen in other parts of the world and called D614G, was found in at least three of the 45 cases in a cluster that started from a restaurant owner returning from India and breaching his 14-day home quarantine. The man has since been sentenced to five months in prison and fined. The strain was also found in another cluster involving people returning from the Philippines.
Fauci Says New Mutation May Speed the Spread of Coronavirus
The strain could mean that existing studies on vaccines may be incomplete or ineffective against the mutation, said Director-General of Health Noor Hisham Abdullah.
link - ( New Window )
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The mutation has become the predominant variant in Europe and the U.S., with the World Health Organization saying there’s no evidence the strain leads to a more severe disease. A paper published in Cell Press said the mutation is unlikely to have a major impact on the efficacy of vaccines currently being developed.
At least one study out there indicates that D614G makes the virus more susceptible to neutralization by the vaccines being developed, rather than less, than it was before it became the leading type here and in Europe.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20159905v1
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The mutation has become the predominant variant in Europe and the U.S., with the World Health Organization saying there’s no evidence the strain leads to a more severe disease. A paper published in Cell Press said the mutation is unlikely to have a major impact on the efficacy of vaccines currently being developed.
Well that definitely is good news Eric!
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it only just got there because they haven't had very many cases (the article says they added 26 cases on Saturday, which was their most since July 28th).
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The mutation has become the predominant variant in Europe and the U.S., with the World Health Organization saying there’s no evidence the strain leads to a more severe disease. A paper published in Cell Press said the mutation is unlikely to have a major impact on the efficacy of vaccines currently being developed.
Well that definitely is good news Eric!
The last damn thing we need is a worse mutation of this nightmare
It's also pretty nauseating to see him back on Yankee threads when he hopped on the bandwagon in his 30's and spews a lot of hot air on those threads too acting like he's an expert on everything Yankees.
This was pretty unnecessary and has nothing to do with the topic being discussed. You're better than that, Mook. To answer your question though, it does seem like it's just you
I don't think its very easy to catch else we'd have a lot more cases, especially in crowded cities and towns where people live in small apartments or work in small essential place.
I am positive that the less clean air you have circulating about where someone is symptomatic your chances of getting it go up.
There are people that have been around symptomatic and didn't catch it.
So who really knows the FULL story?
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In comment 14950531 christian said:
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In comment 14950482 Zeke's Alibi said:
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I was in Navy and sent overseas so I've had every vaccine known to man and had ZERO issue doing so. This isn't anti vaxxer nonsense. This is all about not taking a vaccine that hasn't been extensively tested.
There’s virtually no chance anyone will be forced to take a vaccine. But with all highly communicable outbreaks, you’ll probably not be able permitted to do a number of things, like attend school, work in a government building, work in many private sector buildings.
For those who do not want to take the vaccine, I’m confident they’ll continue to wear masks and social distance until the time comes they feel comfortable taking it.
This is such a flippant response, which is essentially forcing people to take a vaccine. It would be awesome if I don't have bills to pay, but we all do. You want me to take a vaccine fine, but let's outlaw all fast food, sugar, and all the other stuff that would be for the "greater good" as well. Actually there would be a better argument to ban that stuff because there is no risk to it, as opposed to taking some vaccine that isn't extensively tested.
Talking about people's awful health is the ridiculous 3rd rail we have in this country. Drs can't even get tell fat they are fat and need to lose weight anymore. Where is the movement to tell people to get their health in check? We had someone once in a position of power try to get kids healthy and she was crucified for it. Now I'm going to be excommunicated from society because I don't want to take a unproven vaccine? Makes me want to go postal.
That has exactly zero to do with anything. The moment I can catch heart disease or pass it on to my folks silently by breathing on them, I will start worrying about that false comparison.
Right it's worse. People have total contol over it and yet shove donuts and bagels down their gullets on the daily. But all of a sudden they care about their health because they don't get their short term fix? I seriously don't understand it. They same people terrified of this shit are the same that have done zero to protect themselves. I mean shit the quarintne 15 is some huge joke now like haha I just decreased my health outcomes against this virus. The people that are telling me to put shit in my body are the same ones that can't take any personal responsibility for their own decisions. Our medical professionals can't even comment on it or they lose their jobs. It's like Rob Reiner's anti smoking campaign when the dude literally couldn't go 5 minutes without stuffing shit into his face.
How can a town make a plea for help from the courts and the mayor be the lawyer for the opposing side?
Don't know if you say this, but it was my obtuse Ellenville question. Genuinely interested in your thoughts about the subject.
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Malaysia has detected a strain of the new coronavirus that’s been found to be 10 times more infectious.
The mutation, earlier seen in other parts of the world and called D614G, was found in at least three of the 45 cases in a cluster that started from a restaurant owner returning from India and breaching his 14-day home quarantine. The man has since been sentenced to five months in prison and fined. The strain was also found in another cluster involving people returning from the Philippines.
Fauci Says New Mutation May Speed the Spread of Coronavirus
The strain could mean that existing studies on vaccines may be incomplete or ineffective against the mutation, said Director-General of Health Noor Hisham Abdullah.
link - ( New Window )
Maybe you should consume some more of the fats that feed brain cells?
When do the health consequences of eating a Twinkie show up? Compare that to the health consequences of undertaking an activity where COVID infection is relatively high.
A majority of people worldwide are not forward thinking...
When do the health consequences of eating a Twinkie show up? Compare that to the health consequences of undertaking an activity where COVID infection is relatively high.
A majority of people worldwide are not forward thinking...
I have an autoimmune disease related to bad detox genes so I eat clean and drink clean (by and large), including organic soap, toothpaste, shaving cream as most regular brands are loaded with toxic crap.
When I changed my lifestyle, I felt better fairly quickly. But I also have an infrared sauna and rebounder to detox. Crazy how polluted this world is and it all matters.
I'm going to bet that a lot of say "healthy people that got really sick" weren't healthy.
If organic soap, toothpaste, and shaving cream are part of your "eat and drink clean" routine you've got bigger problems than your bad detox gene(s).
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I have an autoimmune disease related to bad detox genes so I eat clean and drink clean (by and large), including organic soap, toothpaste, shaving cream...
?????
If organic soap, toothpaste, and shaving cream are part of your "eat and drink clean" routine you've got bigger problems than your bad detox gene(s).
I worked with the VA War Related Illness and Injury Center along with some really good private doctors. We know, for one example, that these toxins impact men's endocrine systems.
You can make a few simple changes and it has a positive effect.
One Dr. told me after looking at my labs which were off the charts bad that she was surprised I could walk. Once I cleaned up my lifestyle and got that infrared sauna, my labs cleaned up and it changed me for the better.
I think in the next few years you will see much more functional medicine being employed where you look at root causes and the whole person.
I realize most people are unaware.
When do the health consequences of eating a Twinkie show up? Compare that to the health consequences of undertaking an activity where COVID infection is relatively high.
A majority of people worldwide are not forward thinking...
I'd focus more on the gratification aspect. At least for myself.
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don’t give a shit about their overall health related to a diet, while they care more about COVID.
When do the health consequences of eating a Twinkie show up? Compare that to the health consequences of undertaking an activity where COVID infection is relatively high.
A majority of people worldwide are not forward thinking...
I'd focus more on the gratification aspect. At least for myself.
Yeah, gratification is easily incorporated into the time element. When costs/benefits are felt/incurred.
Maybe you should consume some more of the fats that feed brain cells?
Ate plenty of sushi and oysters yesterday, thank you very much.
YOU have made the argument, over and over and over, that somehow "eating right and taking care of yourself healthwise" can somehow protect you against a VIRUS.
Then you go out and eat a pile of oysters and sushi, exposing yourself to harmful ocean borne viruses and toxic elements that filter feeders like oysters concentrate, to get your healthy fatty acids and protein fix?
You don't get any sense of irony here? You are a tad ignorant to be disposing health advice to the broader population my friend. Do some reading about the latent dangers of raw seafood, especially the bivalves, and viruses.
There's really no comparison whatsoever between them, since viruses have essentially one mode of action, to stimulate one's own immune system, and "drugs" can work via hundreds of various biochemical mechanisms.
With drugs, for example, one fear might be mutagenicity. This would really never apply to a vaccine, unless to trace elements associated with it somehow.
So, yes, this is accelerated. But it's also able to be accelerated because there has been a lot of data sharing, there is pretty robust data out there (it's early, but we're tracking this thing across a variety of regions), and they're able to tie this in to similar diseases.
In case you didn't know, even after a vaccine is approved, there are collection websites (think it's called VAERS) where you can report post-approval adverse reactions to a vaccine.
And, any longer-term impacts get harder and harder to ascribe to the vaccine itself. Suppose you get the MMR and, 3 years later, develop a heart arrythmia. It's very unlikely to be able to conclusively tie the two together.
It's a function of risk.
YOU have made the argument, over and over and over, that somehow "eating right and taking care of yourself healthwise" can somehow protect you against a VIRUS.
Then you go out and eat a pile of oysters and sushi, exposing yourself to harmful ocean borne viruses and toxic elements that filter feeders like oysters concentrate, to get your healthy fatty acids and protein fix?
You don't get any sense of irony here? You are a tad ignorant to be disposing health advice to the broader population my friend. Do some reading about the latent dangers of raw seafood, especially the bivalves, and viruses.
To get the levels of mercury you need for a poor outcome you'd need to eat a bit more than I did. Filter feeders are fine as long as the source is good. Bivalves are actually notoriously good at filtering out the bullshit they eat. Farmed clams are actually fine. Shrimp not so much and I try to stay away from it. But I don't let perfect be the enemy of good.
As far as Vibrio is concerned, I don't worry about it honestly because once again people it affects people severely that have weakened immune systems. Are you seeing a trend here? And we practically eradicated the risk of it in the food supply chain as far as I know, it still happens, but it's rare. It's why you can carry eat Oysters in the summer now, outside of taste. Pork you can eat medium rare now to if you didn't know. I assure you I know what I'm talking about in this realm, it's something I take very seriously.
And yes eating healthy will protect you against viruses, as well as sleeping well, and keeping stress manageable. These things all boost your immune system. Not to mention being fat is a stressor on its own. These things aren't rocket science and have been known for years. The issue is most people aren't healthy. When you go out drinking you feel like crap the next day. The issue with food is its a slow burn, and people don't put two in two together. They put stuff in their mouths that makes them feel good for an hour and then shit and its this endless cycle that becomes the new normal. I had this issue with some pain issues I had. I had no idea what I was feeling in my trap was something that everyone didn't experience. I've had it as long as I can remember and I just though it was something you get after running or intense workouts. To this day I'm still working on postural stuff to fix it.
And, most vaccines are one-off type of things that are backed by lots of research, but only by one or a few companies. For COVID-19 you have, as I mentioned earlier, virtually every biologist on the planet working their butts off to achieve a single goal, and that is knowledge of the virus and how the host responds to it. SO the overall support is much broader (not to mention the monetary investments which are no small thing) and is constantly being updated and taken into account during the development and trials schemes.