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NFT: Just how easy is it to contract Covid-19?

BlueLou'sBack : 8/13/2020 8:50 am
Took an antibody test last week because I've been exposed literally hundreds if not a thousand or more times through my job at a retail wine and spirits store in an Orthodox Jewish community.

I've taken modest precautions for most of this time - wearing a mask at work, washing my hands 5 or more times during my 6-8 hour work shifts, and avoiding bringing my hands to my face at all times that I am conscious of them.

I don't wear gloves at all since I figure I can carry the virus in a water droplet from a wine bottle touched (or coughed on) by a customer to my face just as easily on a glove as on my bare skin...

I am reasonably knowledgeable about germs, microbes, viruses, disease spread as well as aseptic technique... I've taken college level undergrad or grad level courses in viruses and microbiology both and did well in those courses...

I dont have antibodies, and I've never had any sign of infection of the virus, none whatsoever.

So how easily is this bug transmitted, really?

Later I will go into some historical comparison between the current Covid-19 pandemic and the 1918 H1N1 malaise... So far this current pandemic is honestly weak sauce compared to that one... So far.

That pandemic killed anywhere from 10% to 30% of the world's population, in a world where far fewer people were 65+ years old, the primary mortality target of this current pandemic. I'd throw out the wild guess that we will have a vaccine against Covid-19 well before it reaches the staggering proportion of the 1918 Spanish flu.

Any thoughts appreciated, but let's keep this wholly apolitical, please. Comments from MDs or other healthcare pros especially appreciated in advance.
I mean, everyone is different  
ThreePoints : 8/13/2020 8:55 am : link
I would assume they taught that in class too? The human body is complex and everyone's immune system is different.
Lou, if they knew the answer  
section125 : 8/13/2020 9:04 am : link
to your question, they would have said it. I read that it takes upwards of 20 minutes contact with someone infected to transfer enough material for it to take hold. I don't know.

I have also seen a simple experiment that shows that masks do prevent spread through talking, sneezing and coughing.
There are known variables ...  
Spider56 : 8/13/2020 9:07 am : link
Do all customers wear masks?
Is there a plexiglass barrier between you and them at all times?
What is your blood type? (A is reported to be more susceptible)
we can't even figure out the  
Burt64 : 8/13/2020 9:09 am : link
common cold so who really knows.

Today China warned that imported chicken wings from Brazil were reported to have traces of the virus. However, I thought we we told that you can't get it through the digestive track?
The Spanish Flu was a killer.....Covid expedites death  
George from PA : 8/13/2020 9:13 am : link
Very different...but I suspect this thread will not go well....as fear, politics has overtaken the subject matter

My wife has the antibodies from a sickness in late December and my daugther is a charge nurse at the ICU...

We need figure out how to protect 5-10% of population....the rest of us need to get back to normal life.

Still a ton of unknowns....which has people freaked....i hope vaccine calms them down.

I am not too concern though.....as my wife would be highest risk and all our parents are deceased.
strange post but the answer is diff for everyone & nobody knows why  
Eric on Li : 8/13/2020 9:20 am : link
anecdotally I too know people who work in hospitals and have been around it every day for 6 months (wearing protection) and have not gotten it. My brother had someone who was pre-symptomatic stay at his house with him for 2 days, driving in a car just the 2 of them for several hours, then got the call a few days later he had to get tested. He was sure he probably got it but he tested negative. Others I know were around so few people they don't even know how they came in contact with it, a few in cities that were hard hit all the way back in March/April when the odds were insanely low for anyone to have even been around it.

From research out there it seems there may be some people who for whatever reason aren't as susceptible to it as others, which is just 1 thing on a very long list of things not yet fully understood.

1 thing that should be pretty well understood by now is that despite unprecedented global mitigation efforts it took only a few months for this thing to be the leading cause of death here. Which is pretty remarkably fast for something that only came into existence 8-9 months ago.
From the research that’s been done  
Jim in Fairfax : 8/13/2020 9:25 am : link
Touch transmission does not seem to be a common method of infection. I wouldn’t stop the hand washing, but the risks from getting infected with Covid off of surfaces seems low.

Inhalation is how this is infecting. One important factor that doesn’t get stressed enough is that dosage matters. Inhaling 1 molecule is not going to cause an infection to take hold. So, the likelihood of getting infected depends on a few factors:

1) How long are you exposed to an infected person
2) How confined is the space
3) How good is the ventilation
4) How much talking/yelling/singing is going on
5) Mask wearing

I haven’t spent a lot of time around Orthodox Jews, but they haven’t struck me as very chatty in public. If there’s not a lot of loitering and talking going on, your exposure may be fairly low.
RE: we can't even figure out the  
Jim in Scranton : 8/13/2020 9:32 am : link
In comment 14948880 Burt64 said:
Quote:
common cold so who really knows.

Today China warned that imported chicken wings from Brazil were reported to have traces of the virus. However, I thought we we told that you can't get it through the digestive track?


Just don't lick or stick the raw chicken in your eyes and you should be good.
Our healthcare is a tad better than it was 100 years ago  
UConn4523 : 8/13/2020 9:33 am : link
that miiiiight have something to do with it.
I suspect it is not as rabidly contagious  
fkap : 8/13/2020 9:39 am : link
as was initially hyped. Still contagious to a high degree, but it was pumped pretty hard to the extent where it was only slight hyperbole to suggest looking at someone would pass it along. Similar to the mask fiasco, first impressions die hard. As people find out they likely have been in contact, but haven't caught it, skepticism and unwillingness to cooperate sets in.

It seems pretty obvious that moderate measures can keep the level of contagion under control. Too bad so many people are unwilling to cooperate.

As a follow up to what I said above  
Jim in Fairfax : 8/13/2020 9:40 am : link
The biggest risk for most people at work is fellow employees. In general you spend a lot more time and talk a lot more in closer confines with fellow employees than with a particular customer.
As others have said here, there is so much we don't know.  
11 to 89 : 8/13/2020 9:41 am : link
What we do know is there are certain precautions that appear to significantly improve your chances of not getting infected. Wear a mask, wash your hands, don't touch your face, and social distancing. You appear to be following these (perhaps not the social distancing one). Where would we be today if EVERYONE just did those simple things. I would expect we would be in a much better place today.
I don’t think you can really honestly compare  
bigblue1124 : 8/13/2020 9:46 am : link
The Spanish flu or even the current flu to what’s going on now IMO. For one the medical advancements and resources available now compared to 1918. The current flu has a vaccine granted not 100% reliable but certainly helps the chances of getting it.

The current situation is the unknown and the scary thing at least to me is the nonchalant attitude many people have towards being inconvenienced. I have been on furlough since mid-March and sick and tired of it but when I think that so many families have not been able to say goodbye to loved ones let alone have a proper service for them, I temper my frustrations. I can’t imagine not having the opportunity to say goodbye to a loved one.
And when it’s all said and done better to safe than sorry for you, family and friends.
I'm an MD and have been studying this topic extensively since March.  
Jerz44 : 8/13/2020 9:47 am : link
The crazy thing is no one really knows even still.

Here are some thoughts I've been gathering over the last few months:

1. I suspect we will learn that most people are not that infectious, but rather there are "superspreaders" who for whatever reason infect a lot of people. So, if you avoid a superspreader event your risks are low.

2. The worst scenario for spread is inside, poorly circulated air. Seems to be very little risk being outside, especially if warm and breezy.

3. It's not just anti-bodies. Recent studies show there may be T-cell immunity in upwards of 20-50% of any population.

4. In my hospital, 0 / 200 ER staff have been infected symptomatically despite only wearing surgical masks and n95s for aerosolizing procedures only (ie., intubations). Even with known COVID patients, people were just wearing regular surgical masks.

% wise you are more likely to die by getting struck by lightning  
gtt350 : 8/13/2020 9:47 am : link
.
RE: The Spanish Flu was a killer.....Covid expedites death  
ThreePoints : 8/13/2020 9:56 am : link
In comment 14948883 George from PA said:
Quote:
We need figure out how to protect 5-10% of population....the rest of us need to get back to normal life.


There is no "back to normal life" while protecting the 5-10%. We're all too integrated and connected.

This is the new normal for the next 12-18 months, or longer.
RE: % wise you are more likely to die by getting struck by lightning  
UConn4523 : 8/13/2020 9:56 am : link
In comment 14948909 gtt350 said:
Quote:
.


Get back to me when lightening becomes contagious.

Can we compare to deaths by torn ACL while we are at it?
RE: % wise you are more likely to die by getting struck by lightning  
Jim in Fairfax : 8/13/2020 9:56 am : link
In comment 14948909 gtt350 said:
Quote:
.

Uh, no. 27 people on average die of lightning strikes per year in the US. Over 150K are dead in 6 months of Covid.
The shame of all this is that it's EASY to beat...  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 10:00 am : link
...you can just look at how different the outcomes are in other countries, what methods work.

The illness doesn't transmit well if basic precautions are taken and if serious lockdowns occur in tandem with robust tracing.

Most hospitals that handle CoVid cases haven't had staff breakouts, because hospitals take it deadly seriously, enforce and follow strict rules, ensuring proper distancing, partitioning, masks, etc...

This is why we let our son go back to work at a Binghamton hospital. Local hospitals have ZERO cases of employees coming down with CoVid while the local defense contractor I work at has had several.

All that said, the one friend I have (Leonia, NJ) who came down with it has NO IDEA how he caught it. He and his wife max telework, barely interact outside the house - he wound up with a month long battle resulting in a scarred lung. Thankfully, didn't spread to wife or kids.

It's an easy illness to beat, but only if the entire population works together.

And we aren't going to work together. :(
Loitering Orhodox Jews  
Beezer : 8/13/2020 10:01 am : link
Great band name!
Is there any  
larryinnewhaven : 8/13/2020 10:01 am : link
data that some people are naturally immune to this disease? I'm a firefighter and 6 of my 8 shiftmates had it at same time and I escaped luckily. Also have been in same room with people with positive cases multiple times. I had Swine in 99 I'm hoping that gave me a super immune system to fight this thing. My antibody test was negative however.
Spelled correctly,  
Beezer : 8/13/2020 10:02 am : link
of course.
I also have worked in a liquor store  
dabru : 8/13/2020 10:02 am : link

I have 4 stores in MA and 24 employees, we have never been busier and NONE of my employees have contracted covid yet. Some have been tested because of contact with others outside of work. We wear masks when dealing with customers but we do not enforce a mask policy for our customers and we do not use plexi-glass barriers.

...  
christian : 8/13/2020 10:03 am : link
Healthcare is exponentially better than 100 years ago, global coordination is exponentially better, and far and above all factors, there isn’t a world war raging where countries literally denying the pandemic for strategic benefit.

As it relates to the 5-10% — how does that correspond with the 15% of Americans over 65?
RE: % wise you are more likely to die by getting struck by lightning  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 10:04 am : link
In comment 14948909 gtt350 said:
Quote:
.
It bothers me when people blindly post crap that is obviously false. Could you imagine over 120,000 Americans getting killed by lightning every year? Holy Crap!! LOL...
RE: Is there any  
Jim in Fairfax : 8/13/2020 10:06 am : link
In comment 14948923 larryinnewhaven said:
Quote:
data that some people are naturally immune to this disease? I'm a firefighter and 6 of my 8 shiftmates had it at same time and I escaped luckily. Also have been in same room with people with positive cases multiple times. I had Swine in 99 I'm hoping that gave me a super immune system to fight this thing. My antibody test was negative however.

Some recent studies indicate that past infections with some non-Covid coronaviruses may confer some protection.
most (not all) people  
fkap : 8/13/2020 10:16 am : link
are smart enough not to stand in the middle of a field during a lightning storm holding a metal rod yelling, "Freedom". Too bad the same level of comprehension hasn't sunk in for other things.
RE: The shame of all this is that it's EASY to beat...  
Jerz44 : 8/13/2020 10:16 am : link
In comment 14948921 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
...you can just look at how different the outcomes are in other countries, what methods work.

The illness doesn't transmit well if basic precautions are taken and if serious lockdowns occur in tandem with robust tracing.

Most hospitals that handle CoVid cases haven't had staff breakouts, because hospitals take it deadly seriously, enforce and follow strict rules, ensuring proper distancing, partitioning, masks, etc...

This is why we let our son go back to work at a Binghamton hospital. Local hospitals have ZERO cases of employees coming down with CoVid while the local defense contractor I work at has had several.

All that said, the one friend I have (Leonia, NJ) who came down with it has NO IDEA how he caught it. He and his wife max telework, barely interact outside the house - he wound up with a month long battle resulting in a scarred lung. Thankfully, didn't spread to wife or kids.

It's an easy illness to beat, but only if the entire population works together.

And we aren't going to work together. :(


I disagree with this. Lock downs seem to delay but not prevent deaths. If you look at the data, it seems the most likely answer is that the virus needs to burn itself through a community, hit about 20% of the population, and then a "herd immunity" sets in. The numbers of 60-70% required for herd immunity are likely off given that there seems to be an innate immunity amongst 20-50% of the population due to T-cell cross reactivity with other viruses.

If you look at Sweden, they got burned quickly but have basically normalized now without any significant lock down or mask strategy (I'm not anti-mask, just saying).

Similarly, if you look at surges in Louisiana it seems to burn thru two counties there that have not seen surges since despite widely divergent lock down and mask policies. New surges are typically in communities that haven't seen it yet.

I think 5-10 years from now we're going to realize - if we're being honest and avoiding politics - that lock downs were probably the wrong thing. The best thing is probably isolating the nursing home, testing their staff regularly, and getting on with out lives. My 2c.
No clue.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 8/13/2020 10:17 am : link
I just wear a mask, wash my hands often, & just practice good hygiene. I guess that's all one can do.
Thanks Jim  
larryinnewhaven : 8/13/2020 10:17 am : link
It was thought back in around 2012 that swine survivors had shown signs of souped up immune systems. Hoping that is the case.
RE: Our healthcare is a tad better than it was 100 years ago  
Tuckrule : 8/13/2020 10:19 am : link
In comment 14948898 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
that miiiiight have something to do with it.


Haha that was my first thought right away when reading the OP. Some good info on this thread regarding the virus that I didn’t know.
With regards to the T-cell immunity found, the authors  
kicker : 8/13/2020 10:25 am : link
at Duke seemed to recognize that they are not exactly sure if the immune response is helpful or harmful. Specific T-cells could abort COVID infection, or could actually amplify it.

So I would be very hesitant to say that 20% is the adequate threshold for herd immunity, given the wide variability in 20%-50% of T-cell reactions.
And the underlying fact is that it is highly dependent on a number  
kicker : 8/13/2020 10:26 am : link
of environmental and infected subject factors, as well as personal factors. That's why they only give population infection rates that are an average (and must be for suitably large population sets).

The "European" version of COVID-19 had a much higher infection rate than the initial version, and who knows how much further the virus has mutated (if at all).
RE: RE: The shame of all this is that it's EASY to beat...  
Sec 103 : 8/13/2020 10:27 am : link
In comment 14948931 Jerz44 said:
Quote:
In comment 14948921 x meadowlander said:


Quote:


...you can just look at how different the outcomes are in other countries, what methods work.

The illness doesn't transmit well if basic precautions are taken and if serious lockdowns occur in tandem with robust tracing.

Most hospitals that handle CoVid cases haven't had staff breakouts, because hospitals take it deadly seriously, enforce and follow strict rules, ensuring proper distancing, partitioning, masks, etc...

This is why we let our son go back to work at a Binghamton hospital. Local hospitals have ZERO cases of employees coming down with CoVid while the local defense contractor I work at has had several.

All that said, the one friend I have (Leonia, NJ) who came down with it has NO IDEA how he caught it. He and his wife max telework, barely interact outside the house - he wound up with a month long battle resulting in a scarred lung. Thankfully, didn't spread to wife or kids.

It's an easy illness to beat, but only if the entire population works together.

And we aren't going to work together. :(



I disagree with this. Lock downs seem to delay but not prevent deaths. If you look at the data, it seems the most likely answer is that the virus needs to burn itself through a community, hit about 20% of the population, and then a "herd immunity" sets in. The numbers of 60-70% required for herd immunity are likely off given that there seems to be an innate immunity amongst 20-50% of the population due to T-cell cross reactivity with other viruses.

If you look at Sweden, they got burned quickly but have basically normalized now without any significant lock down or mask strategy (I'm not anti-mask, just saying).

Similarly, if you look at surges in Louisiana it seems to burn thru two counties there that have not seen surges since despite widely divergent lock down and mask policies. New surges are typically in communities that haven't seen it yet.

I think 5-10 years from now we're going to realize - if we're being honest and avoiding politics - that lock downs were probably the wrong thing. The best thing is probably isolating the nursing home, testing their staff regularly, and getting on with out lives. My 2c.


This !!!
The problem now is between the media and politicians they have spread the hysteria to all the corners of the earth. Takes time for people with fear to change.
RE: With regards to the T-cell immunity found, the authors  
Jerz44 : 8/13/2020 10:28 am : link
In comment 14948939 kicker said:
Quote:
at Duke seemed to recognize that they are not exactly sure if the immune response is helpful or harmful. Specific T-cells could abort COVID infection, or could actually amplify it.

So I would be very hesitant to say that 20% is the adequate threshold for herd immunity, given the wide variability in 20%-50% of T-cell reactions.


You may be right. But, just looking at the precipitous rises and falls in various communities - Spain, Italy, NYC, Sweden, and even more recently in Texas, Florida and Arizona - it's clear that the virus decreases well before 70% of people have it and it's not lockdowns/masks alone that justify the drop.

...  
kicker : 8/13/2020 10:32 am : link
True, we've seen a burn through. But statistically, if you take into account a variety of factors, variable transmission rates have been impacted by the various policies of the lockdown.

Not only that, Spain and France are starting to see localized flare-ups, so we're not really sure if it means we have reached that threshold, if summer environmental factors are coming into play (heat, humidity, etc.), if people have slightly altered their patterns of behavior, etc.

Basically, it's going to be a giant wait and see for several months (when people naturally start to relax and re-open) to see which hypothesis is more correct.
Mind you, it's also how the flu pandemic of 1918 (as others have  
kicker : 8/13/2020 10:37 am : link
mentioned, how the fuck is it relevant?) behaved, though it appears that there may be slightly more time in between the peaks NOW (if there were a second wave), compared to the time between peaks in 1918.
It is hard to quantify, but easy to visualize.  
Marty in Albany : 8/13/2020 10:40 am : link
When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.

That's really all you need to know.

But to answer the OP's question more specifically:

If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.
RE: most (not all) people  
arcarsenal : 8/13/2020 10:43 am : link
In comment 14948930 fkap said:
Quote:
are smart enough not to stand in the middle of a field during a lightning storm holding a metal rod yelling, "Freedom". Too bad the same level of comprehension hasn't sunk in for other things.


Indeed.
Hindsight will usually prove to be 20/20  
fkap : 8/13/2020 10:48 am : link
IMO, it's pretty obvious that lockdown wasn't necessary. A slowdown/targeted shutdown of certain industry would likely have been just as effective, while softening the economic blow. However, this was not obvious at crunch time and thus calamitous decisions were made in a better safe than sorry mindset.
Well, it depends on how you look at it.  
kicker : 8/13/2020 10:52 am : link
Dave at NBER has found that while non-essential business closures were the least effective policy in aggregate, there was such tremendous regional variation that they were most effective in the NE and Pacific NW, and much less so in the South and SW.
Much easier to contract Covid-19  
LeonBright45 : 8/13/2020 10:53 am : link
If you are an irrational, frightened, cuckold mess.
BlueLou  
Lines of Scrimmage : 8/13/2020 10:55 am : link
Continue to stay safe serving others.

I think like a military campaign this will be studied for years if not decades with a big TBD.

The northeastern states have had the worst final outcomes and highest death rates. From day one we knew this virus had a bad outcome for the elderly. This is fact.

Seems if you don't follow protocols and go about your business the probability factor comes into play for either you or someone you are in contact with.
RE: RE: % wise you are more likely to die by getting struck by lightning  
widmerseyebrow : 8/13/2020 11:06 am : link
In comment 14948927 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
In comment 14948909 gtt350 said:


Quote:


.

It bothers me when people blindly post crap that is obviously false. Could you imagine over 120,000 Americans getting killed by lightning every year? Holy Crap!! LOL...


It's my right as an American to walk outside in a thunderstorm!!

ZAP
RE: RE: With regards to the T-cell immunity found, the authors  
Bill L : 8/13/2020 11:13 am : link
In comment 14948943 Jerz44 said:
Quote:
In comment 14948939 kicker said:


Quote:


at Duke seemed to recognize that they are not exactly sure if the immune response is helpful or harmful. Specific T-cells could abort COVID infection, or could actually amplify it.

So I would be very hesitant to say that 20% is the adequate threshold for herd immunity, given the wide variability in 20%-50% of T-cell reactions.



You may be right. But, just looking at the precipitous rises and falls in various communities - Spain, Italy, NYC, Sweden, and even more recently in Texas, Florida and Arizona - it's clear that the virus decreases well before 70% of people have it and it's not lockdowns/masks alone that justify the drop.


Those studies are also being looked at as possible early waning of antibody responses, so it may be more a matter of interpretation (maybe it's not 70% because antibodies have already dropped, leading to an underestimate). Have to say that I am not totally convinced about the antibody waning but that's because we just don't have enough information yet.

ANd kicker's point about T cells is correct. A lot of the most sever outcomes are due to imuunopathology and we don't know how any pre-existing, cross-reactive immunity (to the extent that it exists at all) might contribute negatively.

In the end, the answer to every question is going to be, "it depends".
...  
christian : 8/13/2020 11:31 am : link
Much of this is the difficulty in the human condition to:

1) Analyze issues in real time (understandable)

2) Contextualize that outcomes can occur on a spectrum, and don't always have a perfect historical analog

Covid can be less bad than the Spanish flu, and more bad than the seasonal flu. The right answer can be to do more or much more than we do for known threats.

We've taken extraordinary measures -- I often wonder what the death count would be if we had not. Double, triple?
RE: Hindsight will usually prove to be 20/20  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 11:34 am : link
In comment 14948957 fkap said:
Quote:
IMO, it's pretty obvious that lockdown wasn't necessary. A slowdown/targeted shutdown of certain industry would likely have been just as effective, while softening the economic blow. However, this was not obvious at crunch time and thus calamitous decisions were made in a better safe than sorry mindset.
Perhaps - I believe Japan had good results by focusing on *activities* over full lockdowns - no large gatherings, etc. And of course, everyone there masked up.

But in crowded cities like NYC, there wasn't a choice. HAD to lock down to get it under control.

What really sucks for America is that the cows are out of the barn - getting a handle on testing/tracing seems impossible at this point.

My sons and their girlfriends have been tested recently so they could spend time together. First pair in July took 3 days to get results. Second took SEVEN days - just got the results 2 days ago, they're camping as I write this.

A 7 day turnaround on testing is a disaster, makes tracing much harder.

We don't need a cure - we need a quick, cheap, self-test.
RE: It is hard to quantify, but easy to visualize.  
dabru : 8/13/2020 11:35 am : link
In comment 14948951 Marty in Albany said:
Quote:
When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.

That's really all you need to know.

But to answer the OP's question more specifically:

If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.


I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?
True CoVid Toll has already surpassed 200,000...  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 11:37 am : link
...excess mortality numbers reported today are freakin' hair raising.

"Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.
As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by other causes linked to the pandemic. "

The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 - ( New Window )
RE: RE: It is hard to quantify, but easy to visualize.  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 11:51 am : link
In comment 14948982 dabru said:
Quote:
In comment 14948951 Marty in Albany said:


Quote:


When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.

That's really all you need to know.

But to answer the OP's question more specifically:

If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.



I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?
New York 'formally' locked down March 20th (Cuomo announced it in Albany), though NYC subway ridership numbers didn't really sharply decline til about a week later.

NYC 'peak' cases and deaths were April 7th, so your '5 week' description is not accurate.

Albany and most of upstate never got hammered like NYC despite same rules early on. Right? We got to open sooner cause our numbers were low.

Reasons are obvious for Downstates horrific results. Crowded spaces are a breeding ground for CoVid. Locking down NYC and enforcing distancing laws turned it around and yes, CoVid is not going to turn on a dime. It took about a month after the lockdown for the numbers to really drop to manageable levels, but the fact is that the lockdown DID cause a near immediate drop in cases.

The NYC lockdown saved lives. The crime is that it didn't begin sooner.
RE: RE: It is hard to quantify, but easy to visualize.  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 11:58 am : link
In comment 14948982 dabru said:
Quote:
In comment 14948951 Marty in Albany said:


Quote:


When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.

That's really all you need to know.

But to answer the OP's question more specifically:

If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.



I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?
New York 'formally' locked down March 20th (Cuomo announced it in Albany), though NYC subway ridership numbers didn't really sharply decline til about a week later.

NYC 'peak' cases and deaths were April 7th, so your '5 week' description is not accurate.

Albany and most of upstate never got hammered like NYC despite same rules early on. Right? We got to open sooner cause our numbers were low.

Reasons are obvious for Downstates horrific results. Crowded spaces are a breeding ground for CoVid. Locking down NYC and enforcing distancing laws turned it around and yes, CoVid is not going to turn on a dime. It took about a month after the lockdown for the numbers to really drop to manageable levels, but the fact is that the lockdown DID cause a near immediate drop in cases.

The NYC lockdown saved lives. The crime is that it didn't begin sooner.
X  
fkap : 8/13/2020 11:59 am : link
testing is indeed a bugaboo in the system.

Was reading an article the other day where the supposition was that the lag time between testing and result made the test useless in many regards, and that overall, it would be better to use a test which caught fewer percentage of cases, but which has much less lag time to result.

Eventually, test processing capacity will catch up, but that may be a while.
The excess death thing is illuminating, but there  
kicker : 8/13/2020 12:01 pm : link
have been deaths related to stress from the lockdowns itself, which means that you can't simply link all of them to COVID.
X  
fkap : 8/13/2020 12:02 pm : link
"We got to open sooner"

Are you my Albany area neighbor? Thought you were out west somewhere.
RE: The excess death thing is illuminating, but there  
UConn4523 : 8/13/2020 12:03 pm : link
In comment 14948998 kicker said:
Quote:
have been deaths related to stress from the lockdowns itself, which means that you can't simply link all of them to COVID.


How many can that possibly be and how is it categorized - heart attack?
Interesting theory about the virus having to burn through and area  
Stan in LA : 8/13/2020 12:09 pm : link
To make it 'safe'. Almost like a forest fire not having the ability to burn an area twice unless it protected, but then can get hit later. Still waiting for the data of someone getting the virus twice. Has it happened?
I would think  
Lines of Scrimmage : 8/13/2020 12:13 pm : link
Suicides have to be up as well as a few other things. I also worry about the older people who had certain things in life that they did that helped keep them going. You take that away.....not good.

NY is going to be interesting how it plays out. Some believe many more died in nursing homes than reported. Not sure if that will be answered.
RE: X  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 12:24 pm : link
In comment 14949000 fkap said:
Quote:
"We got to open sooner"

Are you my Albany area neighbor? Thought you were out west somewhere.
I'm in Binghamton, NY. Originally from Little Ferry, NJ., down the road from the stadium. Been upstate since 1995. Love it here.

Comments from a spectator, not in anyway an expert.  
Big Al : 8/13/2020 12:27 pm : link
Over months, I keep seeing stories about how one country or state has done so much better than others, and eventually stories about an outbreak there. See New Zealand for most recent. There is no getting away from the fact that the world and most of the human population is interconnected. All I think we are doing by all precautions is changing the timing in terms of heights of the curve and length of the outbreaks with pretty much the same results in the long run. Amplitude and frequency? The only thing that is going to help is an effective vaccine which we need as soon as possible. I don’t think anyone, even the experts currently know where this is going.

This post in no way advises anyone to not follow the advice of the experts as I do but I am a pessimist by nature who goes by the odds even if he tends to doubt the odds.
RE: RE: Hindsight will usually prove to be 20/20  
section125 : 8/13/2020 12:29 pm : link
In comment 14948981 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
In comment 14948957 fkap said:


Quote:


IMO, it's pretty obvious that lockdown wasn't necessary. A slowdown/targeted shutdown of certain industry would likely have been just as effective, while softening the economic blow. However, this was not obvious at crunch time and thus calamitous decisions were made in a better safe than sorry mindset.

Perhaps - I believe Japan had good results by focusing on *activities* over full lockdowns - no large gatherings, etc. And of course, everyone there masked up.

But in crowded cities like NYC, there wasn't a choice. HAD to lock down to get it under control.

What really sucks for America is that the cows are out of the barn - getting a handle on testing/tracing seems impossible at this point.

My sons and their girlfriends have been tested recently so they could spend time together. First pair in July took 3 days to get results. Second took SEVEN days - just got the results 2 days ago, they're camping as I write this.

A 7 day turnaround on testing is a disaster, makes tracing much harder.

We don't need a cure - we need a quick, cheap, self-test.


x -FWIW - Japan is about the size of California with 125 million people, so it is quite crowded and Tokyo is bigger than NYC - so it would seem they would need large areas of lockdown too. (IMHO)

There will likely never be a cure for COVID, just like there is no cure for almost any virus. It will likely be another seasonal type vaccine to reduce effects.

A quick cheap test is wonderful but will not do enough to limit/prevent the disease. Everyone would need to test daily and you know that isn't happening. We cannot get parents to immunize kids for illnesses that are totally preventable.
RE: RE: The excess death thing is illuminating, but there  
kicker : 8/13/2020 12:29 pm : link
In comment 14949001 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14948998 kicker said:


Quote:


have been deaths related to stress from the lockdowns itself, which means that you can't simply link all of them to COVID.



How many can that possibly be and how is it categorized - heart attack?


Quite frankly, it could be anywhere from 0 to X, where X is the total number of deaths during COVID-19. There are some statistical methods to tease out the likelihood that an excess death is related to government actions taken during COVID, but it's imprecise.

What you are likely to be able to do is look at excess deaths by cause of death (heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, suicide) and assert that the excess is related to the lockdown. But that's a supposition.

But...heart attacks actually increase during good economic times, which is what we saw before COVID, so even that's faulty
RE: RE: The excess death thing is illuminating, but there  
kicker : 8/13/2020 12:34 pm : link
In comment 14949001 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14948998 kicker said:


Quote:


have been deaths related to stress from the lockdowns itself, which means that you can't simply link all of them to COVID.



How many can that possibly be and how is it categorized - heart attack?


Internal estimates I've seen have attributed (nationwide) about 15,000-20,000 deaths due to delaying needed medical care (due to worries about COVID) or due to the stresses of lockdowns.
RE: RE: RE: Hindsight will usually prove to be 20/20  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 12:37 pm : link
In comment 14949022 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14948981 x meadowlander said:


x -FWIW - Japan is about the size of California with 125 million people, so it is quite crowded and Tokyo is bigger than NYC - so it would seem they would need large areas of lockdown too. (IMHO)

There will likely never be a cure for COVID, just like there is no cure for almost any virus. It will likely be another seasonal type vaccine to reduce effects.

A quick cheap test is wonderful but will not do enough to limit/prevent the disease. Everyone would need to test daily and you know that isn't happening. We cannot get parents to immunize kids for illnesses that are totally preventable.
I have my hopes - I believe in the power of GREED. The Golden Goose has stopped laying eggs and mountains are being moved to produce a vaccine.

May well be impossible.

I don't believe *daily* testing would be necessary. When the illness is in check, as it is here in Binghamton, you can do much of what you normally would. People here aren't overly precautious, but are keeping their distance, mostly wearing masks where you'd expect, cases are easily tracked and quarantined. Hospitals running generally under 20 cases total at any given point in time.

Most of the country eventually should and will be in this state - but to get there, every state apparently is going to do it the *hard way*, take their lumps and do the right thing.

I fear the number of lives it will take to get us there.
and then there's gems like this  
UConn4523 : 8/13/2020 12:38 pm : link
.
Couple Assaults 17 year old at Sesame Place for Mask Reminder - ( New Window )
RE: RE: The Spanish Flu was a killer.....Covid expedites death  
PatersonPlank : 8/13/2020 12:43 pm : link
In comment 14948915 ThreePoints said:
Quote:
In comment 14948883 George from PA said:


Quote:


We need figure out how to protect 5-10% of population....the rest of us need to get back to normal life.



There is no "back to normal life" while protecting the 5-10%. We're all too integrated and connected.

This is the new normal for the next 12-18 months, or longer.


I'm not sure what this 5-10% number is. 5-10% of the people who have been tested may have it, but as numerous study's have shown many more have had it but never got tested because its so minor to them. In general the people getting tested are the sicker ones. Most studies I've seen (from orgs like the CDC and Who) are projecting a number more like 1/2%
And since it needs to be said again.  
kicker : 8/13/2020 12:56 pm : link
The mortality aspects of the disease are abhorrent; but the morbidity (i.e., continued respiratory, cardiac, neurological, kidney, .... conditions AFTER the virus clears) are much more worrisome, and what can potentially lead to long-term issues.

There are enough signs to make those possibilities worrisome, but since it's a novel disease, we have no idea whether the issues resolve themselves over time, get worse, etc.
RE: RE: RE: It is hard to quantify, but easy to visualize.  
dabru : 8/13/2020 12:58 pm : link
In comment 14948988 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
In comment 14948982 dabru said:


Quote:


In comment 14948951 Marty in Albany said:


Quote:


When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.

That's really all you need to know.

But to answer the OP's question more specifically:

If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.



I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?

New York 'formally' locked down March 20th (Cuomo announced it in Albany), though NYC subway ridership numbers didn't really sharply decline til about a week later.

NYC 'peak' cases and deaths were April 7th, so your '5 week' description is not accurate.

Albany and most of upstate never got hammered like NYC despite same rules early on. Right? We got to open sooner cause our numbers were low.

Reasons are obvious for Downstates horrific results. Crowded spaces are a breeding ground for CoVid. Locking down NYC and enforcing distancing laws turned it around and yes, CoVid is not going to turn on a dime. It took about a month after the lockdown for the numbers to really drop to manageable levels, but the fact is that the lockdown DID cause a near immediate drop in cases.

The NYC lockdown saved lives. The crime is that it didn't begin sooner.


April 25th was easily one of the top ten days for reported new cases. Locking down NYC may have helped NYC but it caused many, who could, to flee the city and help spread it to the rest of the country, maybe it killed more than it saved. Plus they had the big win with a 350% increase of domestic abuse calls in June.

Fact is other states that have spiked haven't really seen worse overall numbers than NY.

RE: RE: RE: RE: It is hard to quantify, but easy to visualize.  
arcarsenal : 8/13/2020 1:09 pm : link
In comment 14949055 dabru said:
Quote:
In comment 14948988 x meadowlander said:


Quote:


In comment 14948982 dabru said:


Quote:


In comment 14948951 Marty in Albany said:


Quote:


When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.

That's really all you need to know.

But to answer the OP's question more specifically:

If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.



I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?

New York 'formally' locked down March 20th (Cuomo announced it in Albany), though NYC subway ridership numbers didn't really sharply decline til about a week later.

NYC 'peak' cases and deaths were April 7th, so your '5 week' description is not accurate.

Albany and most of upstate never got hammered like NYC despite same rules early on. Right? We got to open sooner cause our numbers were low.

Reasons are obvious for Downstates horrific results. Crowded spaces are a breeding ground for CoVid. Locking down NYC and enforcing distancing laws turned it around and yes, CoVid is not going to turn on a dime. It took about a month after the lockdown for the numbers to really drop to manageable levels, but the fact is that the lockdown DID cause a near immediate drop in cases.

The NYC lockdown saved lives. The crime is that it didn't begin sooner.



April 25th was easily one of the top ten days for reported new cases. Locking down NYC may have helped NYC but it caused many, who could, to flee the city and help spread it to the rest of the country, maybe it killed more than it saved. Plus they had the big win with a 350% increase of domestic abuse calls in June.

Fact is other states that have spiked haven't really seen worse overall numbers than NY.


You can't compare New York to states with significantly lower population densities.

If there was never any lockdown or pause button hit in NY, we never would have gotten any handle on this. The way the city operates is way too conducive to rapid spreading with so many folks utilizing public transportation.

If anything, the lockdown should have happened earlier.

It's all an inexact science, and hindsight routinely comes into play as we learn more about the virus.

I don't think anyone wants to just lock the country down for months on end. We all realize that's not going to help, either. But, I think it's backwards for people to keep blowing through protocols to try and save the economy. Doing this creates setbacks, and then we move backwards again.

The economy can't recover until the virus is under control.

Also, not sure where you're getting that 350% number from, but I've not seen that anywhere...
RE: True CoVid Toll has already surpassed 200,000...  
KDubbs : 8/13/2020 1:10 pm : link
In comment 14948983 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
...excess mortality numbers reported today are freakin' hair raising.

"Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.
As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by other causes linked to the pandemic. " The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 - ( New Window )


yea but there been more dangerous storms so lightning deaths are probably way up
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: It is hard to quantify, but easy to visualize.  
nygiants16 : 8/13/2020 1:22 pm : link
In comment 14949070 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
In comment 14949055 dabru said:


Quote:


In comment 14948988 x meadowlander said:


Quote:


In comment 14948982 dabru said:


Quote:


In comment 14948951 Marty in Albany said:


Quote:


When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.

That's really all you need to know.

But to answer the OP's question more specifically:

If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.



I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?

New York 'formally' locked down March 20th (Cuomo announced it in Albany), though NYC subway ridership numbers didn't really sharply decline til about a week later.

NYC 'peak' cases and deaths were April 7th, so your '5 week' description is not accurate.

Albany and most of upstate never got hammered like NYC despite same rules early on. Right? We got to open sooner cause our numbers were low.

Reasons are obvious for Downstates horrific results. Crowded spaces are a breeding ground for CoVid. Locking down NYC and enforcing distancing laws turned it around and yes, CoVid is not going to turn on a dime. It took about a month after the lockdown for the numbers to really drop to manageable levels, but the fact is that the lockdown DID cause a near immediate drop in cases.

The NYC lockdown saved lives. The crime is that it didn't begin sooner.



April 25th was easily one of the top ten days for reported new cases. Locking down NYC may have helped NYC but it caused many, who could, to flee the city and help spread it to the rest of the country, maybe it killed more than it saved. Plus they had the big win with a 350% increase of domestic abuse calls in June.

Fact is other states that have spiked haven't really seen worse overall numbers than NY.




You can't compare New York to states with significantly lower population densities.

If there was never any lockdown or pause button hit in NY, we never would have gotten any handle on this. The way the city operates is way too conducive to rapid spreading with so many folks utilizing public transportation.

If anything, the lockdown should have happened earlier.

It's all an inexact science, and hindsight routinely comes into play as we learn more about the virus.

I don't think anyone wants to just lock the country down for months on end. We all realize that's not going to help, either. But, I think it's backwards for people to keep blowing through protocols to try and save the economy. Doing this creates setbacks, and then we move backwards again.

The economy can't recover until the virus is under control.

Also, not sure where you're getting that 350% number from, but I've not seen that anywhere...


Dont want to get into it to much but NY and NJ deaths are higher is because 50% cme from nursing homes, their executive orders were moronic..
.  
arcarsenal : 8/13/2020 1:29 pm : link
The nursing home deaths were seriously problematic and mishandled. I've said in other threads that Cuomo deserves heat for that.

Significant damage was done in New York early on. We didn't avoid it or conquer it - but the numbers right now are a lot better than they were in April.

Peak had us near 12,000 cases at one time - I believe we're under 700 now and have had < 10 deaths each day in August.

Each state has different challenges with this due to population density and how they generally operate. It's significantly more difficult to contain viral spread in Manhattan than more rural areas in the midwest.
RE: .  
nygiants16 : 8/13/2020 1:32 pm : link
In comment 14949089 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
The nursing home deaths were seriously problematic and mishandled. I've said in other threads that Cuomo deserves heat for that.

Significant damage was done in New York early on. We didn't avoid it or conquer it - but the numbers right now are a lot better than they were in April.

Peak had us near 12,000 cases at one time - I believe we're under 700 now and have had < 10 deaths each day in August.

Each state has different challenges with this due to population density and how they generally operate. It's significantly more difficult to contain viral spread in Manhattan than more rural areas in the midwest.


The deaths are closer to 0 daily now in ny and nj...Murphy has said when he reports deaths now most if not all are from a few months ago
To answer the original question.  
Bubba : 8/13/2020 1:36 pm : link
It depends on who you listen to. This is as good an answer as any.
"Very very easy"  
Mad Mike : 8/13/2020 1:38 pm : link
- The 2021 St Louis Cardinals
Sigh, 2020  
Mad Mike : 8/13/2020 1:39 pm : link
*
Lockdowns are an inexact science. They are not  
kicker : 8/13/2020 1:48 pm : link
the first best solution. And economic theory will tell us that, because of that, the unintended consequences could be very large and severe.

However, we have a number of issues in this country (relative to other developed nations) that made alternative solutions perhaps less likely to be the first tool utilized.

1. Geographic dispersion and population density (suburbia).
2. A reluctance to listen to government (hence, mask wearing and social distancing policies that rely on moral suasion may be ineffective).
3. A relative low distrust in vaccines.
4. An intolerance for death.
Seems to be similar  
Beer Man : 8/13/2020 1:49 pm : link
to your chance of catching the flu
It’s interesting to me to read this thread...  
trueblueinpw : 8/13/2020 1:49 pm : link
I enjoy reading through all of the posts. But having read the OP and the responses I don’t feel like I know anything more than when I started. That’s not a criticism of anyone or the post or the board. Just an indication that this public health and medical science puzzle is still being put together.

I listened to a podcast last night about a new model to predict a certain event. 30 minutes, lot of interesting questions, lots of interesting data and political science, smart experts all. But at the end of the discussion I was like, “eh, there’s too many variables for any certainty here. So what’s the point”?

FWIW... and I know not much.
RE: Seems to be similar  
arcarsenal : 8/13/2020 1:52 pm : link
In comment 14949106 Beer Man said:
Quote:
to your chance of catching the flu


I don't think this is accurate.
BlueLou  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 8/13/2020 2:02 pm : link
Pretty sure you're mixing up The Spanish Flu with The Black Death. If 20-30% of the world population died in 1918, it would have been a MUCH bigger deal lol. Only 1-6% of the world population died according to several estimations.

Still, the Spanish Flu was clearly an order of magnitude greater than the current Covid crisis. Especially when it comes to the younger and healthy demographic. Just wanted to point out that even though Covid isn't quite comparable to the Spanish Flu, it's still an extremely devastating event considering the medical advances we've made. Just like how Spanish Flu wasn't comparable to the Black Death, but still extremely devastating considering the medical advances that had been made.
wearing a mask  
giantfan2000 : 8/13/2020 2:05 pm : link
there was a story last month which I am surprised did not get more attention

basically two hair dressers saw clients and turned out both hair dressers both had covid
The health department contact traceed all their 139 clients and turn out none got the virus ..
everyone in the shop the hairdressers and clients all were strict about their mask wearing .. and social distancing when not with clients .

Facemask seemed to be the key in preventing the spread of covid in this case -- maybe that is with you as well ..
Hairstylists with COVID-19 didn't infect any of their 139 clients. Face masks may be why. - ( New Window )
RE: There are known variables ...  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/13/2020 2:10 pm : link
In comment 14948876 Spider56 said:
Quote:
Do all customers wear masks?
Is there a plexiglass barrier between you and them at all times?
What is your blood type? (A is reported to be more susceptible)


Most of our customers don't wear masks. No plexiglass. I am the most susceptible blood type (A) with the most dangerous and well known pre-conditions of hypertension and diabetes, long term. I am on the cusp of 65 yo.

Those are the reasons, along my with the fact that our community where the store is located - Monsey, NY - was hit hard by CV-19, that I asked to be tested for the antivirus.

Someone thought our community might be "isolated."

Just the opposite, we have and had frequent interactions and interchange with other Orthodox Jewish communities that got SLAMMED WELL ABOVE ANY OTHER "ordinary" community. Hassids in Brooklyn, and those living near and among them, were ravaged by the virus.

Same in Israel, Orthodox communities got hit far worse than non Orthodox.

Lord only knows how bad it hit Palestinians or Muslims in Israel and in the West Bank.

But I'm talking about New York where I work and Jersey where I live.
RE: and then there's gems like this  
Mike from Ohio : 8/13/2020 2:11 pm : link
In comment 14949028 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
. Couple Assaults 17 year old at Sesame Place for Mask Reminder - ( New Window )


Saw another story about a woman who assaulted a gate agent at the Phoenix airport because they wouldn't let her board her connecting flight because she refused to keep her mask on on the first leg of the trip.

These emotionally crippled, emo snowflakes need to stay home if they can't respect that private businesses are allowed to set and enforce rules. Not a single one of them understands what the word "freedom" means.
Nor do most of our customers observe the 6ft.  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/13/2020 2:12 pm : link
social distancing rules. Just the opposite!
Thanks for so many great responses.  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/13/2020 2:15 pm : link
You all have given me a lot to digest, a lot to ponder.

Not enough time right now as I get prepared for work, but I will revisit this entire thread several times tonight.

Again thank you also for keeping politics out of this discussion.
Re. masks...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 8/13/2020 2:18 pm : link
Like a lot of things in life, some are good with it & some suck with it. It's mandatory where I work, but there are of course some people who are a little too lax with it. They've recently said that it also protects you so I never take it off, even when I'm in my cubicle.
RE: As a follow up to what I said above  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/13/2020 2:22 pm : link
In comment 14948903 Jim in Fairfax said:
Quote:
The biggest risk for most people at work is fellow employees. In general you spend a lot more time and talk a lot more in closer confines with fellow employees than with a particular customer.


This. Among the people I work with, only the wine shop owner refuses to mask up and wash hands regularly. Everyone else is 100% invested in protecting themselves and others.

One of my part time co-workers manages sanitation at an old age home. He has preached the importance of protection to us over and over, and provided us with ame reasons to fear or at least respect the bug.
RE: RE: and then there's gems like this  
UConn4523 : 8/13/2020 2:23 pm : link
In comment 14949123 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In comment 14949028 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


. Couple Assaults 17 year old at Sesame Place for Mask Reminder - ( New Window )



Saw another story about a woman who assaulted a gate agent at the Phoenix airport because they wouldn't let her board her connecting flight because she refused to keep her mask on on the first leg of the trip.

These emotionally crippled, emo snowflakes need to stay home if they can't respect that private businesses are allowed to set and enforce rules. Not a single one of them understands what the word "freedom" means.


Ahh yes, the "freedom" argument. I have a couple friends that routinely throw that out and I ask for examples which turns into a comedy show.
Ample  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/13/2020 2:23 pm : link
reasons.
RE: BlueLou  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/13/2020 2:27 pm : link
In comment 14949118 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
Quote:
Pretty sure you're mixing up The Spanish Flu with The Black Death. If 20-30% of the world population died in 1918, it would have been a MUCH bigger deal lol. Only 1-6% of the world population died according to several estimations.

Still, the Spanish Flu was clearly an order of magnitude greater than the current Covid crisis. Especially when it comes to the younger and healthy demographic. Just wanted to point out that even though Covid isn't quite comparable to the Spanish Flu, it's still an extremely devastating event considering the medical advances we've made. Just like how Spanish Flu wasn't comparable to the Black Death, but still extremely devastating considering the medical advances that had been made.


I might well have made an order of magnitude error so that my 10-30% is really 1-3%!

I'll link the article from the CDC summarizing the history of the Spanish flu, but I didn't confuse it with the black plague.

Just sloppy math.
RE: RE: RE: and then there's gems like this  
arcarsenal : 8/13/2020 2:38 pm : link
In comment 14949129 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14949123 Mike from Ohio said:


Quote:


In comment 14949028 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


. Couple Assaults 17 year old at Sesame Place for Mask Reminder - ( New Window )



Saw another story about a woman who assaulted a gate agent at the Phoenix airport because they wouldn't let her board her connecting flight because she refused to keep her mask on on the first leg of the trip.

These emotionally crippled, emo snowflakes need to stay home if they can't respect that private businesses are allowed to set and enforce rules. Not a single one of them understands what the word "freedom" means.



Ahh yes, the "freedom" argument. I have a couple friends that routinely throw that out and I ask for examples which turns into a comedy show.


It really is unbelievable.
Sesame Place is ground zero for countless illnesses...  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 2:44 pm : link
...prove me wrong.

Wanna see kids in swollen swim diapers in wading pools? Have I got the park for you!
NYC region Nursing Home Disaster...  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 2:55 pm : link
...I see the argument often about 'Cuomo/Nursing Homes', but too easily, people are forgetting what the atmosphere in NYC was like at that point - NYC was not gearing up for 20,000 deaths, they were expecting FAR worse - CoVid was only a few months along, China had quarantined 750 Million people, hospitals added beds wherever they could, there were field hospitals, there was the floating hospital that *eventually* arrived, there were healthcare professionals flooding into the city to help.

Upstate, hospitals were ordered to be prepared to take overflow patients. In Binghamton, the hockey Arena was secured as a triage center. Every hospital had their parking lots turned into tent city triage facilities.

Facing all that, the decision governments were left with - what to do with discharged patients who still needed professional care? Send them upstate? Upstate may well be overrun at the same time. Logistical issues. NIMBY issues. Convert hotels? Time and staff were issues. Nursing Homes were a terrible option, but seemed like the most logical choice at the time. When the crisis subsided, the order was rescinded.

It was awful. A tragedy. The whole Pandemic is.
x mead  
Lines of Scrimmage : 8/13/2020 3:21 pm : link
I won't argue your points made. I do think people were upset with a lack of acknowledgement that they could have done better. This is very new for all us. Many of us understand there are not perfect solutions. Like a game, constant adjustment are needed based on changing dynamics.

His response has been "It's pure politics" when he is questioned. Pretty weak imo and many find it arrogant.
kicker  
fkap : 8/13/2020 3:35 pm : link
the potential long term health effect angle is, IMO, seriously under reported. Too many people have the notion that it is a death or no big deal scenario, and if they aren't old, they aren't going to die, so no big deal.
RE: x mead  
x meadowlander : 8/13/2020 3:49 pm : link
In comment 14949172 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
I won't argue your points made. I do think people were upset with a lack of acknowledgement that they could have done better. This is very new for all us. Many of us understand there are not perfect solutions. Like a game, constant adjustment are needed based on changing dynamics.

His response has been "It's pure politics" when he is questioned. Pretty weak imo and many find it arrogant.
To me, Cuomo's answers on the particular topic feel like they were coached by lawyers. His responses don't match his excellent reporting and analysis in his many, many press conferences which have been substantive, meaningful, heartfelt - he drew tears and even some laughter at times. He was everything you could ask for a leader to be. He defined his career with those press conferences, turned himself into a valid future Presidential contender. (he claims zero interest) His popularity has exploded because of this - I had multiple out of state family members watching him daily - even a cousin - a Doctor in Sorrento Italy!

There is so much to be said about the Nursing Home issue, and he gives these weird one line answers - I believe he knows many lawsuits will be launched from rightly pissed off families of Nursing Home dead, and he is playing it safe by keeping quiet.

It's a shame.
My son is an epidemiologist  
TJ : 8/13/2020 4:01 pm : link
He tells me there is no definite answer. "More communicable than SARS less than flu." But the virus has already shown a propensity for mutation. And there are probably unknown individual variations that make some people more likely to catch it than others and some people mire likely to spread it than others.

He also tells me there are definitely people who do not die from it but end up with comorbidities they may battle forever.
The only sane way to respond to what's known and what's not is to do the Fauci stuff. Mask, distance, wash.

For what it's worth he also says that even if shutdowns turn out in hindsight to have been unnecessary in some cases, it is the only responsible thing to do in the face of what we know and what we don't. But he admits he approaches the question from a biology/public health perspective and not that of a businessperson or politician
Mutation is actually realtively low and slow in comparison  
Bill L : 8/13/2020 4:14 pm : link
and shouldn't be making much of an impact on infectivity. It certainly doesn't change the different immune responses that people are making to the virus.
RE: My son is an epidemiologist  
Jim in Fairfax : 8/13/2020 4:17 pm : link
In comment 14949193 TJ said:
Quote:
He tells me there is no definite answer. "More communicable than SARS less than flu."

You have it reversed. It’s less than SARS, more than Flu.
BlueLou  
Milton : 8/13/2020 4:27 pm : link
Are you blood type O?
Quote:
Several studies have researched the link that genetics plays in susceptibility to contracting the virus, and some more specifically have linked the role played by blood type. The studies all came to a similar conclusion: People with blood type O have less of a chance of getting COVID-19.

from Jerusalem Post... - ( New Window )
x mead  
Lines of Scrimmage : 8/13/2020 4:29 pm : link
I appreciate your thoughts and agree with the lawyer angle. We probably will disagree but that is ok. I am going to get off this particular topic before I get a scolding from the East.
@ BlueLou'sBack:  
81_Great_Dane : 8/13/2020 5:10 pm : link
Sorry, I can't read the whole thread, I'm "at work." So forgive me if this is redundant.

Studies of this virus have shown it to be INCREDIBLY contagious, EXTREMELY easy to contract. It's a huge outlier in that respect. However, not everybody who contracts the virus gets sick, not everyone who gets sick has severe symptoms. A couple of my 20-something co-workers have had it and had little more than a headache and a low-grade fever. People of all ages and physical conditions have gotten COVID-19 and died, but some populations are clearly more vulnerable than others, and some people in vulnerable groups have recovered.

Regarding actually catching the thing, reasonable precautions can inhibit spread: mask, physical distancing, good hygiene and hand-washing. Places where these things don't happen are prone to mass outbreaks with rapid spread. We know the list: Nursing homes, prisons, bars. Retail actually hasn't been linked to that kind of outbreak as far as I know, probably because it's easier to keep a distance from people in a store than a bar.
But he did say he had no antibodies.  
Bill L : 8/13/2020 7:17 pm : link
So there’s a 99% chance that has not been exposed.
RE: But he did say he had no antibodies.  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/13/2020 7:32 pm : link
In comment 14949282 Bill L said:
Quote:
So there’s a 99% chance that has not been exposed.


Exactly. If I've been around 100s of people with or at least closely exposed to people with the illness, and I still haven't even been "exposed" to a significant enough titer to have contracted the illness or to acquire antibodies just how easily is this virus spread?

That is my question, or perhaps my conundrum.
RE: RE: But he did say he had no antibodies.  
Bill L : 8/13/2020 7:52 pm : link
In comment 14949287 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14949282 Bill L said:


Quote:


So there’s a 99% chance that has not been exposed.



Exactly. If I've been around 100s of people with or at least closely exposed to people with the illness, and I still haven't even been "exposed" to a significant enough titer to have contracted the illness or to acquire antibodies just how easily is this virus spread?

That is my question, or perhaps my conundrum.
lucky?

Because it is extremely transmissible. Having said that, there’s a window where even those people with whom you have interacted who were infected are infectious themselves and maybe you’ve been fortunate enough, combined with whatever precautions you do take, to have escaped.
.  
arcarsenal : 8/13/2020 8:07 pm : link
The most challenging part of this is how many variables there are. There are literally countless factors that influence all of this and really, just still so much we don't know.

We don't even know how trustworthy the antibody tests are.

If you were only tested once, Lou, you could have received a false negative. I don't think that's out of the question.

It's also unclear as to whether or not the antibodies will create long-term immunity or if it's possible to become re-infected at some point in the future after recovery.

I have a good friend who caught the virus at his job and he's not the reckless type. He was taking all of the precautions that were recommended at the time. He got really sick and said it was miserable. Over 2 weeks he was in bed. He's not overweight, he has no preexisting conditions.. it leveled him and had him totally out of action.

On the other hand, you have countless folks who have had the virus and either had very mild symptoms or been entirely asymptomatic.

We also just don't know for sure how the virus can affect the body long-term or if there are residual effects. We've seen it in some cases with guys like Eduardo Rodriguez.

Certain blood types seem more susceptible, so not everyone is even necessarily the same level of vulnerable even amongst healthy people who aren't immunocompromised.

I think we are all learning a lot as we go here. It's a contentious topic because it's obviously interfering with everyone's lives at this point and has done serious damage to small businesses and the economy in general. A lot of people are hurting. A lot of people are angry and frustrated. Many have lost someone close to them or someone they know.

This entire year has been a huge struggle for millions and millions of people. So much so, that it almost feels surreal.

I think we all need to keep that in mind as we discuss this in the coming weeks/months.
arc.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 8/13/2020 8:16 pm : link
Well said. And we still don't know the long term effects of COVID-19. I remember coming back from visiting relatives in NJ in mid February & feeling like trash for a couple of days-dry cough, fatigue, general malaise. Did I have it? Who knows? Those are some symptoms. COVID was obviously here by then, but nobody knew to the extent.

I know 2 people who have died from the virus. I know 4 people who have been laid off/furloughed. 2020 is just a garbage year, probably equivalent to 1968 for those not born then.

RE: arc.  
arcarsenal : 8/13/2020 8:49 pm : link
In comment 14949334 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Well said. And we still don't know the long term effects of COVID-19. I remember coming back from visiting relatives in NJ in mid February & feeling like trash for a couple of days-dry cough, fatigue, general malaise. Did I have it? Who knows? Those are some symptoms. COVID was obviously here by then, but nobody knew to the extent.

I know 2 people who have died from the virus. I know 4 people who have been laid off/furloughed. 2020 is just a garbage year, probably equivalent to 1968 for those not born then.


Yep. I mean, back in January, I got very sick. I was breaking out in rashes everywhere, I was extremely nauseous and didn't feel well for several days - my symptoms didn't totally match up, but who knows what I had or if I had it at some point.

We're really just learning a lot as we go here, and I think it's going to be a long time before we see anything resembling the world we saw before all of this started.

While that sucks and sounds grim, I do feel like the blueprint for containing it is pretty clear at this point.

I live in NY and feel like as long as I mask up in stores/public places, I'm going to probably be fine. It's not hard to be reasonably responsible here and a mask is a small sacrifice to make to respect the health of the people around me.

If I'm outdoors and no one is within like 20 feet of me, I don't necessarily feel like I need to cover my face.

To me, the basics are really easy and just common sense at this point. It's hard when we have so many people buying into ridiculous theories, believing wearing a mask will "infect them" and make them sick, etc.

The more we all get on the same page, the more effective we are in containing and stifling the spread.
It would really depend on Your Immune System  
chiro56 : 8/13/2020 9:20 pm : link
If your a Healthy person in general you shouldn't have mush problem. Good Gut Health, Healthy habits, exercise, get in Nature, de-stress your body .Your terrain is healthy , your good.
RE: It would really depend on Your Immune System  
arcarsenal : 8/13/2020 9:30 pm : link
In comment 14949369 chiro56 said:
Quote:
If your a Healthy person in general you shouldn't have mush problem. Good Gut Health, Healthy habits, exercise, get in Nature, de-stress your body .Your terrain is healthy , your good.


That's the problem - this isn't always the case.

The friend of mine that I mentioned in one of my last two posts, he fits that criteria. He plays in a hockey league, he's not overweight, he's active, healthy, no pre-existing conditions and this thing knocked him on his ass.
NY region Nursing Home Disaster...  
giantfan2000 : 8/13/2020 9:46 pm : link
20% of the people who dies in NY were in nursing homes
that number is currently 50% in Florida AND STILL HAPPENING

so if what Cuomo did was criminal what do you say about DiSantis ?
RE: The shame of all this is that it's EASY to beat...  
Giant Fan Dan : 8/13/2020 10:39 pm : link
In comment 14948921 x meadowlander said:
Quote:

This is why we let our son go back to work at a Binghamton hospital. Local hospitals have ZERO cases of employees coming down with CoVid while the local defense contractor I work at has had several.

Dude, I don't know who told you this but all three local hospitals have had entire departments infected, dozens of employees. Source:I work in one of those local hospitals
RE: RE: The shame of all this is that it's EASY to beat...  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/13/2020 11:09 pm : link
In comment 14949402 Giant Fan Dan said:
Quote:
In comment 14948921 x meadowlander said:


Quote:



This is why we let our son go back to work at a Binghamton hospital. Local hospitals have ZERO cases of employees coming down with CoVid while the local defense contractor I work at has had several.



Dude, I don't know who told you this but all three local hospitals have had entire departments infected, dozens of employees. Source:I work in one of those local hospitals


Frankly, I am nowhere near Binghamton, but a report of "zero infections in any of 3 local hospitals" was very, very different from what I have heard of the medical facilities near where I work and live in Rockland county NY and Bergen county NJ respectively.

Also radically different from what my doctor partner in Israel has told me, even though Israel's per capita cases and deaths have been far far lower than NY's or NJ's.

Still haven't spoken with an old buddy who's a doc in internal medicine at MT Sainai in NYC.

Didn't want to disturb him, honestly. My doctor partner in IL is swamped with work...
good to see you back again Arc  
Eric on Li : 8/13/2020 11:17 pm : link
when the wilpons sell I think you should come back to the mets. The yankee thing is your version of rumspringa.
RE: NY region Nursing Home Disaster...  
pjcas18 : 8/13/2020 11:33 pm : link
In comment 14949380 giantfan2000 said:
Quote:
20% of the people who dies in NY were in nursing homes
that number is currently 50% in Florida AND STILL HAPPENING

so if what Cuomo did was criminal what do you say about DiSantis ?


You always have to find a way to wedge in your agenda to every discussion.

Cuomo forced the nursing homes to take COVID patients discharged from hospitals. By law. forced.

Florida has approx 3000 nursing home deaths (patients and employees)

NY had 5800 nursing home deaths (patients only) by May, haven't seen a count since.

Florida is bigger than NY.


Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
eclipz928 : 8/13/2020 11:50 pm : link
of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.
RE: Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
pjcas18 : 8/13/2020 11:57 pm : link
In comment 14949411 eclipz928 said:
Quote:
of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.


WTF are you talking about?

FL has under 9,000 deaths, NY has over 32,000 and again, Florida is bigger.

and what lessons did people learn from NY?

Don't force nursing homes to take COVID patients? No shit. No one thought that made sense except maybe one person the media and fanboys fawn over.

NY was an unmitigated disaster.
RE: RE: Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
eclipz928 : 8/14/2020 12:31 am : link
In comment 14949415 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14949411 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.



WTF are you talking about?

FL has under 9,000 deaths, NY has over 32,000 and again, Florida is bigger.

and what lessons did people learn from NY?

Don't force nursing homes to take COVID patients? No shit. No one thought that made sense except maybe one person the media and fanboys fawn over.

NY was an unmitigated disaster.

I was referring to the nursing home numbers you cited - everyone acknowledges that 5800 dead in NY is bad, but 3000 shouldn't be acceptable either.

And Florida has already surpassed NY in total cases. What do you think the reason is behind Florida having more cases than NY despite having more time to prepare for it?
Lets not forget NJ.  
Bubba : 8/14/2020 6:56 am : link
nearly 50% of covid deaths were in nursing homes where the Murphy administration forced them to take covid patients as well.
RE: It would really depend on Your Immune System  
Milton : 8/14/2020 7:32 am : link
In comment 14949369 chiro56 said:
Quote:
If your a Healthy person in general you shouldn't have mush problem. Good Gut Health, Healthy habits, exercise, get in Nature, de-stress your body .Your terrain is healthy , your good.
People need to stop passing along this kind of misinformation. It's this kind of advice that gets people killed. Some demographics have a higher probability than others, but there is no demographic that can claim no risk. And that includes professional athletes in their 20's.

My 30-year old cousin is a former competitive athlete and a surgeon at Bellevue Hospital. She contracted the virus on the job. At first her symptoms were mild, no big deal, and then five or six days into it, she winds up in a hospital bed on oxygen.
RE: RE: But he did say he had no antibodies.  
Milton : 8/14/2020 7:39 am : link
In comment 14949287 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
If I've been around 100s of people with or at least closely exposed to people with the illness, and I still haven't even been "exposed" to a significant enough titer to have contracted the illness or to acquire antibodies just how easily is this virus spread?

That is my question, or perhaps my conundrum.
It's been answered several times already if you were paying attention. The virus spreads very easily among a large percentage of the population, but there is also a significant percentage of people who are unlikely to contract the virus despite repeated exposure. Just as not everyone who gets the virus will experience harsh symptoms, not everyone is equally likely to get the virus on contact. This is true of all viruses I believe. So what's specific to you, isn't useful for drawing conclusions about the general population. That's why clinical trials involve hundreds and thousands of people and not just a handful. A small sample set can be dangerously misleading.
RE: RE: It would really depend on Your Immune System  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/14/2020 7:57 am : link
In comment 14949372 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
In comment 14949369 chiro56 said:


Quote:


If your a Healthy person in general you shouldn't have mush problem. Good Gut Health, Healthy habits, exercise, get in Nature, de-stress your body .Your terrain is healthy , your good.



That's the problem - this isn't always the case.

The friend of mine that I mentioned in one of my last two posts, he fits that criteria. He plays in a hockey league, he's not overweight, he's active, healthy, no pre-existing conditions and this thing knocked him on his ass.


What was he eating? How much was he sleeping a night? There is a lot of unknown factor here. I saw a Dr. the other stake her reputation that you would be hard pressed to find someone with adverse effects that is actively avoiding seed oils and trans fats. The problem is that is only 10 percent of the population. That's what he was he getting at with good gut health. I was a personal trainer for a while and it blew my mind what people thought was eating healthy.
RE: RE: It would really depend on Your Immune System  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/14/2020 8:00 am : link
In comment 14949438 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 14949369 chiro56 said:


Quote:


If your a Healthy person in general you shouldn't have mush problem. Good Gut Health, Healthy habits, exercise, get in Nature, de-stress your body .Your terrain is healthy , your good.

People need to stop passing along this kind of misinformation. It's this kind of advice that gets people killed. Some demographics have a higher probability than others, but there is no demographic that can claim no risk. And that includes professional athletes in their 20's.

My 30-year old cousin is a former competitive athlete and a surgeon at Bellevue Hospital. She contracted the virus on the job. At first her symptoms were mild, no big deal, and then five or six days into it, she winds up in a hospital bed on oxygen.


Find me someone that lives a holistically healthy lifestyle that was put on their ass. Just being a competitive athlete means diddly squat. Baseball players are notorious for their shitty diets. And people in the medical world aren't known to take the best care of their health on top of their extremely stressful, demanding jobs.
RE: RE: RE: Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
KDavies : 8/14/2020 8:07 am : link
In comment 14949419 eclipz928 said:
Quote:
In comment 14949415 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949411 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.



WTF are you talking about?

FL has under 9,000 deaths, NY has over 32,000 and again, Florida is bigger.

and what lessons did people learn from NY?

Don't force nursing homes to take COVID patients? No shit. No one thought that made sense except maybe one person the media and fanboys fawn over.

NY was an unmitigated disaster.


I was referring to the nursing home numbers you cited - everyone acknowledges that 5800 dead in NY is bad, but 3000 shouldn't be acceptable either.

And Florida has already surpassed NY in total cases. What do you think the reason is behind Florida having more cases than NY despite having more time to prepare for it?


Florida has a higher population than NY. You can’t talk about population density with NYC and then ignore it everywhere else. While Florida has no city like NYC, New York State’s next biggest city is Buffalo with about 250k.

Florida has Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, St. Petersburg, Hialeah. Like NYC, many of those areas are also transient. South Florida has Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach counties which are all pretty largely populated. All are still shut down largely and on mask mandates.

The virus is blowing through everywhere. The important thing is to protect the vulnerable. The fact that Florida, with its elderly population so high, has 30% of the deaths as NY is testament to that

RE: RE: RE: It would really depend on Your Immune System  
arcarsenal : 8/14/2020 8:10 am : link
In comment 14949444 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14949372 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


In comment 14949369 chiro56 said:


Quote:


If your a Healthy person in general you shouldn't have mush problem. Good Gut Health, Healthy habits, exercise, get in Nature, de-stress your body .Your terrain is healthy , your good.



That's the problem - this isn't always the case.

The friend of mine that I mentioned in one of my last two posts, he fits that criteria. He plays in a hockey league, he's not overweight, he's active, healthy, no pre-existing conditions and this thing knocked him on his ass.



What was he eating? How much was he sleeping a night? There is a lot of unknown factor here. I saw a Dr. the other stake her reputation that you would be hard pressed to find someone with adverse effects that is actively avoiding seed oils and trans fats. The problem is that is only 10 percent of the population. That's what he was he getting at with good gut health. I was a personal trainer for a while and it blew my mind what people thought was eating healthy.


I don't think there's nearly enough evidence to support any theory on the way diet and sleep affect this virus.

Sure, you can hypothesize and use common sense - I'm sure someone with superb sleeping habits and a healthy diet will generally be healthier and their immune system should theoretically be stronger, but stuff like this varies so much from person to person.

I don't have a detailed log of what my friend was eating throughout each day, but I know he doesn't eat fast food and his diet is relatively healthy.

Do you think Freddie Freeman is unhealthy?

He said he thought this was going to kill him when he had it. He was literally praying for it not to take his life. He was petrified. His fever nearly hit 105. The guy is 30 years old.

I don't know how many hours Freddie sleeps each night and I don't have a log of his meals, but I'm pretty sure you don't become one of the best hitters in baseball with an athletic physique if you're not sleeping and eating garbage.
RE: RE: RE: It would really depend on Your Immune System  
Milton : 8/14/2020 8:12 am : link
In comment 14949445 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:

Find me someone that lives a holistically healthy lifestyle that was put on their ass. Just being a competitive athlete means diddly squat.
How exactly am I supposed to find you that person? I'm not conducting clinical trials on the virus. I haven't interviewed hundreds or thousands who were hospitalized and asked them about their eating habits.

People need to stop talking like they know what they're talking about when scientists and researchers are still learning about the virus. It's dangerous and irresponsible. People might mistake you for someone who is informed.
RE: RE: The shame of all this is that it's EASY to beat...  
x meadowlander : 8/14/2020 8:27 am : link
In comment 14949402 Giant Fan Dan said:
Quote:
In comment 14948921 x meadowlander said:


Quote:



This is why we let our son go back to work at a Binghamton hospital. Local hospitals have ZERO cases of employees coming down with CoVid while the local defense contractor I work at has had several.



Dude, I don't know who told you this but all three local hospitals have had entire departments infected, dozens of employees. Source:I work in one of those local hospitals
If that's true, then they aren't letting employees know. We have access to the Lourdes CEO's weekly reports. They've had quarantines from exposure, but no employee cases. My neighbor works at General, same there, wife has friends at UHS/Wilson - nobody has told us anything about actual cases of hospital employees with CoVid. That's something that's been discussed as a positive for this region for some time.

If you know something I don't, it's important you share that information. I don't want to be unnecessarily putting my family at risk.
RE: RE: RE: RE: It would really depend on Your Immune System  
Giantology : 8/14/2020 8:30 am : link
In comment 14949450 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 14949445 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:



Find me someone that lives a holistically healthy lifestyle that was put on their ass. Just being a competitive athlete means diddly squat.

How exactly am I supposed to find you that person? I'm not conducting clinical trials on the virus. I haven't interviewed hundreds or thousands who were hospitalized and asked them about their eating habits.

People need to stop talking like they know what they're talking about when scientists and researchers are still learning about the virus. It's dangerous and irresponsible. People might mistake you for someone who is informed.


He's been pretending to be informed on this since March.
RE: RE: RE: The shame of all this is that it's EASY to beat...  
x meadowlander : 8/14/2020 8:30 am : link
In comment 14949406 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14949402 Giant Fan Dan said:


Quote:


In comment 14948921 x meadowlander said:


Quote:



This is why we let our son go back to work at a Binghamton hospital. Local hospitals have ZERO cases of employees coming down with CoVid while the local defense contractor I work at has had several.



Dude, I don't know who told you this but all three local hospitals have had entire departments infected, dozens of employees. Source:I work in one of those local hospitals



Frankly, I am nowhere near Binghamton, but a report of "zero infections in any of 3 local hospitals" was very, very different from what I have heard of the medical facilities near where I work and live in Rockland county NY and Bergen county NJ respectively.

Also radically different from what my doctor partner in Israel has told me, even though Israel's per capita cases and deaths have been far far lower than NY's or NJ's.

Still haven't spoken with an old buddy who's a doc in internal medicine at MT Sainai in NYC.

Didn't want to disturb him, honestly. My doctor partner in IL is swamped with work...
It' a different world upstate, and that's why I moved and stayed here. I have friends in healthcare downstate and in Northern NJ and the stories from some of those hospitals are hair-curling, particularly in the city.

Broome County is surrounded by low-CoVid counties. We have higher numbers, larger population but also the confluence of 3 interstates, distribution centers, etc... Still, our numbers are low.
RE: RE: RE: But he did say he had no antibodies.  
Bill L : 8/14/2020 8:34 am : link
In comment 14949439 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 14949287 BlueLou'sBack said:


Quote:


If I've been around 100s of people with or at least closely exposed to people with the illness, and I still haven't even been "exposed" to a significant enough titer to have contracted the illness or to acquire antibodies just how easily is this virus spread?

That is my question, or perhaps my conundrum.

It's been answered several times already if you were paying attention. The virus spreads very easily among a large percentage of the population, but there is also a significant percentage of people who are unlikely to contract the virus despite repeated exposure. Just as not everyone who gets the virus will experience harsh symptoms, not everyone is equally likely to get the virus on contact. This is true of all viruses I believe. So what's specific to you, isn't useful for drawing conclusions about the general population. That's why clinical trials involve hundreds and thousands of people and not just a handful. A small sample set can be dangerously misleading.


I am not sure exactly what "get the virus" means in this context. If it means become infected and sick then yeah maybe that's correct. But, if you're around the virus and it enters into your circulation (or respiratory system), then you're almost guaranteed to make antibodies against it, regardless of whether or not you become infectious.
RE: RE: RE: RE: But he did say he had no antibodies.  
Bill L : 8/14/2020 8:35 am : link
In comment 14949457 Bill L said:
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In comment 14949439 Milton said:


Quote:


In comment 14949287 BlueLou'sBack said:


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If I've been around 100s of people with or at least closely exposed to people with the illness, and I still haven't even been "exposed" to a significant enough titer to have contracted the illness or to acquire antibodies just how easily is this virus spread?

That is my question, or perhaps my conundrum.

It's been answered several times already if you were paying attention. The virus spreads very easily among a large percentage of the population, but there is also a significant percentage of people who are unlikely to contract the virus despite repeated exposure. Just as not everyone who gets the virus will experience harsh symptoms, not everyone is equally likely to get the virus on contact. This is true of all viruses I believe. So what's specific to you, isn't useful for drawing conclusions about the general population. That's why clinical trials involve hundreds and thousands of people and not just a handful. A small sample set can be dangerously misleading.



I am not sure exactly what "get the virus" means in this context. If it means become infected and sick then yeah maybe that's correct. But, if you're around the virus and it enters into your circulation (or respiratory system), then you're almost guaranteed to make antibodies against it, regardless of whether or not you become infectious.
(depending on dose of exposure).
RE: RE: RE: It would really depend on Your Immune System  
Bill L : 8/14/2020 8:36 am : link
In comment 14949444 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14949372 arcarsenal said:


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In comment 14949369 chiro56 said:


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If your a Healthy person in general you shouldn't have mush problem. Good Gut Health, Healthy habits, exercise, get in Nature, de-stress your body .Your terrain is healthy , your good.



That's the problem - this isn't always the case.

The friend of mine that I mentioned in one of my last two posts, he fits that criteria. He plays in a hockey league, he's not overweight, he's active, healthy, no pre-existing conditions and this thing knocked him on his ass.



What was he eating? How much was he sleeping a night? There is a lot of unknown factor here. I saw a Dr. the other stake her reputation that you would be hard pressed to find someone with adverse effects that is actively avoiding seed oils and trans fats. The problem is that is only 10 percent of the population. That's what he was he getting at with good gut health. I was a personal trainer for a while and it blew my mind what people thought was eating healthy.


With that opinion, I would guess that there is not much of a reputation to stake.
RE: RE: RE: The shame of all this is that it's EASY to beat...  
Bill L : 8/14/2020 8:39 am : link
In comment 14949453 x meadowlander said:
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In comment 14949402 Giant Fan Dan said:


Quote:


In comment 14948921 x meadowlander said:


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This is why we let our son go back to work at a Binghamton hospital. Local hospitals have ZERO cases of employees coming down with CoVid while the local defense contractor I work at has had several.



Dude, I don't know who told you this but all three local hospitals have had entire departments infected, dozens of employees. Source:I work in one of those local hospitals

If that's true, then they aren't letting employees know. We have access to the Lourdes CEO's weekly reports. They've had quarantines from exposure, but no employee cases. My neighbor works at General, same there, wife has friends at UHS/Wilson - nobody has told us anything about actual cases of hospital employees with CoVid. That's something that's been discussed as a positive for this region for some time.

If you know something I don't, it's important you share that information. I don't want to be unnecessarily putting my family at risk.


I can't recall exactly (it was probably someone's random fb post) but there was a photograph of a make shift display illustrating all of the hcw deaths due to COVID-19. It was not small.
RE: RE: RE: RE: The shame of all this is that it's EASY to beat...  
x meadowlander : 8/14/2020 8:48 am : link
In comment 14949462 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 14949453 x meadowlander said:


Quote:


In comment 14949402 Giant Fan Dan said:


Quote:


In comment 14948921 x meadowlander said:


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This is why we let our son go back to work at a Binghamton hospital. Local hospitals have ZERO cases of employees coming down with CoVid while the local defense contractor I work at has had several.



Dude, I don't know who told you this but all three local hospitals have had entire departments infected, dozens of employees. Source:I work in one of those local hospitals

If that's true, then they aren't letting employees know. We have access to the Lourdes CEO's weekly reports. They've had quarantines from exposure, but no employee cases. My neighbor works at General, same there, wife has friends at UHS/Wilson - nobody has told us anything about actual cases of hospital employees with CoVid. That's something that's been discussed as a positive for this region for some time.

If you know something I don't, it's important you share that information. I don't want to be unnecessarily putting my family at risk.



I can't recall exactly (it was probably someone's random fb post) but there was a photograph of a make shift display illustrating all of the hcw deaths due to COVID-19. It was not small.
Oh, there's no doubt that healthcare workers are taking it on the chin. My point is that area's with low case numbers - Broome County Hospitals have generally been under 20 hospitalized at any given point throughout the crisis - hospitals in regions like ours generally don't have rampant spread among staff as strong guidelines are followed. CoVid is usually contained to a single restricted ward as is the case at Lourdes.

In April, when CoVid broke and case counts quickly rose, we pulled our son from the staff - college student, not a career pro - but by the time June rolled around, the situation stabilized and he went back. If any of his coworkers caught it, we'd know. Small hospital is like family (plus in Binghamton there's one degree of separation) hard to imagine we wouldn't be informed.
I"m sharing what we know, outside of some people that have  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/14/2020 8:53 am : link
some random genetic issue, the virus is affecting the overweight and unhealthy in worse numbers and exponentially at that.

Putting two and two together isn't rocket science. It does make people feel very uncomfortable. Dated a nurse that said she worked for a hospital that had to fire a Dr. because he had the gall to tell his patients they needed to lose weight. Well that effects the customer satisfaction scores and we can't have that. Just another great tweak to our for profit health care.

RE: RE: RE: Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 8:59 am : link
In comment 14949419 eclipz928 said:
Quote:
In comment 14949415 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949411 eclipz928 said:


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of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.



WTF are you talking about?

FL has under 9,000 deaths, NY has over 32,000 and again, Florida is bigger.

and what lessons did people learn from NY?

Don't force nursing homes to take COVID patients? No shit. No one thought that made sense except maybe one person the media and fanboys fawn over.

NY was an unmitigated disaster.


I was referring to the nursing home numbers you cited - everyone acknowledges that 5800 dead in NY is bad, but 3000 shouldn't be acceptable either.

And Florida has already surpassed NY in total cases. What do you think the reason is behind Florida having more cases than NY despite having more time to prepare for it?


More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring. What would you have suggested be done differently without the benefit of 2020 hindsight?

When FL re-opened they had low numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Follow the science people say, so they did (at the time).

They still have low number of deaths (relatively speaking) and at the end of the day, that's really how I view success.

RE: RE: RE: RE: Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 8/14/2020 9:12 am : link
In comment 14949467 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14949419 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949415 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949411 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.



WTF are you talking about?

FL has under 9,000 deaths, NY has over 32,000 and again, Florida is bigger.

and what lessons did people learn from NY?

Don't force nursing homes to take COVID patients? No shit. No one thought that made sense except maybe one person the media and fanboys fawn over.

NY was an unmitigated disaster.


I was referring to the nursing home numbers you cited - everyone acknowledges that 5800 dead in NY is bad, but 3000 shouldn't be acceptable either.

And Florida has already surpassed NY in total cases. What do you think the reason is behind Florida having more cases than NY despite having more time to prepare for it?



More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring. What would you have suggested be done differently without the benefit of 2020 hindsight?

When FL re-opened they had low numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Follow the science people say, so they did (at the time).

They still have low number of deaths (relatively speaking) and at the end of the day, that's really how I view success.


Holly Shit is the post for real?

They barely were on lockdown. They let churches stay open because they were “essential”.

They also were caught fucking with the data after the fired their SAS Data Analytics person.

If their was a playbook for what not do they wrote it.

They acted like it wasn’t going to happen to them and went about business as usual.

They are lucky that they have more hospitals than most states because I of their demographics.
Holly shit?  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 9:57 am : link
what is that a Christmas treat for the naughty list?

It's 100 percent real.

How do you explain CA who had the strictest lockdown rules in the country?

Everything is open to second guessing, when nothing done was guaranteed to impact spread or for how long.

All people want to do is blame someone or monday morning quarterback everything.

There is very little - with any governor - IMO that is definitely tied to more cases, hospitalizations or deaths - other than one thing - an executive order to force nursing homes to take COVID patients. That is 100% directly tied to deaths without speculating or searching for ways to politicize this or just blame someone without facts or using 2020 hind sight.

And total cases that don't result in hospitalizations or deaths should not be a metric used to criticize or fear monger IMO. We are testing more, naturally that should result in more cases.
More time to prepare is a red herring?  
Eric on Li : 8/14/2020 10:17 am : link
perhaps for the general public but not for the frontline HCW's/researchers who have led advancements of treatments/therapeutics that have likely saved an untold number of lives these past few months that wouldn't have been saved in March/April. Slowing the curve to buy time for therapeutic innovations and delay surges for what life saving treatment we have is literally the entire point of what the entire world is attempting with mitigation efforts - and everyone has benefited from what can likely only be learned through trial and (unfortunately) error.

There have been dozens of articles like this from April on that go into more depth on what's been learned, especially the blood clotting problems that were not well understood until the virus got here (I believe Bill has had a lot of firsthand insight on that).

Quote:
Nearly 30 doctors around the world, from New Orleans to London to Dubai, told Reuters they feel more prepared should cases surge again in the fall.

“​We are well-positioned for a second wave,” Patel said. “We know so much more.”

Doctors like Patel now have:

*A clearer grasp of the disease’s side effects, like blood clotting and kidney failure

*A better understanding of how to help patients struggling to breathe

*More information on which drugs work for which kinds of patients.

They also have acquired new tools to aid in the battle, including:

*Widespread testing

*Promising new treatments like convalescent plasma, antiviral drugs and steroids


Quote:
New York’s Northwell Health reported a fatality rate of 21% for COVID-19 patients admitted to its hospitals in March. That rate is now closer to 10%, due to a combination of earlier treatment and improved patient management, Dr. Thomas McGinn, director of Northwell’s Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research, told Reuters.

“I think everybody is seeing that,” he said. “I think people are coming in sooner, there is better use of blood thinners, and a lot of small things are adding up.”

Even nuts-and-bolts issues, like how to re-organize hospital space to handle a surge of COVID-19 patients and secure personal protective equipment (PPE) for medical workers, are not the time-consuming, mad scrambles they were before.

“The hysteria of who’d take care of (hospital staff) is not there anymore,” said Dr. Andra Blomkalns, head of emergency medicine at Stanford Health Care, a California hospital affiliated with Stanford University. “We have an entire team whose only job is getting PPE.”

Special Report: As world approaches 10 million coronavirus cases, doctors see hope in new treatments - ( New Window )
hmmmm  
giantfan2000 : 8/14/2020 10:28 am : link
Quote:
More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring. What would you have suggested be done differently without the benefit of 2020 hindsight?

When FL re-opened they had low numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Follow the science people say, so they did (at the time).

They still have low number of deaths (relatively speaking) and at the end of the day, that's really how I view success.


6 month into the crisis Florida had their most deaths in one day from Covid .. YESTERDAY .

so from your view of success Florida is a failure
CA had an early lockdown order that worked then cases spiked reopening  
Eric on Li : 8/14/2020 10:29 am : link
with most of the spread since being traced to bars and indoor restaurants, which have since closed down with just about everything else remaining open (outdoor dining and outdoor gyms are open). And numbers have been mostly declining over the past few weeks.

per 1m people California is:
22nd in total cases (FL's is 3rd highest and almost 2x CA)
28th in deaths (the early states are all highest on this list but FL's rate seems to mirror cases and is almost 2x CA)
13th in tests (FL has tested about 20% fewer per capita - so these #'s aren't skewed simply by more testing)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ - ( New Window )
RE: hmmmm  
Bill L : 8/14/2020 10:44 am : link
In comment 14949514 giantfan2000 said:
Quote:


Quote:


More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring. What would you have suggested be done differently without the benefit of 2020 hindsight?

When FL re-opened they had low numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Follow the science people say, so they did (at the time).

They still have low number of deaths (relatively speaking) and at the end of the day, that's really how I view success.




6 month into the crisis Florida had their most deaths in one day from Covid .. YESTERDAY .

so from your view of success Florida is a failure


It's two parts right? You have a response part where you can prepare and try to mitigate severity/mortality, but you also have the dumbass part where it's harder to control the numbers that numbers that need hospitalization.
Eric  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 10:45 am : link
notice how this reads (directly from your quote):

Quote:
...Nearly 30 doctors around the world, from New Orleans to London to Dubai, told Reuters they feel more prepared should cases surge again in the fall.

“​We are well-positioned for a second wave,” Patel said. “We know so much more.”...


Notice how they don't say stop the surge or stop the spread, but prepared to deal with it.

If deaths continue to rise in FL then sure you can question their approach or you can ask if they've learned from elsewhere though the only thing NY did was the same thing everyone else did but like elsewhere they didn't do it when they had low numbers/no outbreak, they did it when they had an outbreak on their hands.

at the end of the day, I think deaths and hospitalizations are how it makes sense to view things from a critical nature. Not cases/surge.

Cases/surge are important  
kicker : 8/14/2020 10:48 am : link
for the safety of our healthcare workforce.

We're already perilously low on healthcare staff at "normal" staffing levels (~5 beds per RN). We are now running out of travel nurses; those are critical to fill surges.

We simply don't have the staff.
Travel nurses are making insane money right now  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/14/2020 10:52 am : link
.
...  
kicker : 8/14/2020 10:57 am : link
Yes, travel nurses are making a lot of money. High demand, high risk, and a labor pool that is rapidly getting depleted.

That's the problem; the labor pool is shrinking as surges flare up in more areas (rather than in NYC), and some travel nurses are choosing to take their money and stay local.
PJ - didn't your post ask what was different in march vs. now?  
Eric on Li : 8/14/2020 11:03 am : link
my point is that a lot has been learned because of what happened to NY because they were hit first - and whoever got hit first was going to do worse than everyone after them.

The quote from the Northwell exec is basically my entire point in a statistic. They have halved their fatality rate in a few months. If they knew in March what is known now a lot less people would have died - as fewer people are now dying in other states when they surge. Comparing outcomes now vs. march is apples to oranges.
RE: Eric  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 8/14/2020 11:04 am : link
In comment 14949519 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
notice how this reads (directly from your quote):



Quote:


...Nearly 30 doctors around the world, from New Orleans to London to Dubai, told Reuters they feel more prepared should cases surge again in the fall.

“​We are well-positioned for a second wave,” Patel said. “We know so much more.”...



Notice how they don't say stop the surge or stop the spread, but prepared to deal with it.

If deaths continue to rise in FL then sure you can question their approach or you can ask if they've learned from elsewhere though the only thing NY did was the same thing everyone else did but like elsewhere they didn't do it when they had low numbers/no outbreak, they did it when they had an outbreak on their hands.

at the end of the day, I think deaths and hospitalizations are how it makes sense to view things from a critical nature. Not cases/surge.


Florida has the nick name of being “Gods Waiting Room” as my grandfather calls it, for a reason. Their age population is skewed older because so many people retire there.

I don’t have the numbers, but logic would make it easy to assume there are more hospitals and hospital beds in general because their demographics dictate it which probably gives them a leg up on other states who get over capacity.

Also who the hell knows if their death numbers are accurate. They were already caught once fudging their data, so business could go on as usual.
I may have read this out of context bc I havent read the entire thread  
Eric on Li : 8/14/2020 11:06 am : link
but this was what I was replying to re: comparisons between outcomes in states that surged in march vs. surging months later.

In comment 14949467 pjcas18 said:
Quote:

More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring.
RE: I may have read this out of context bc I havent read the entire thread  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 11:08 am : link
In comment 14949533 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
but this was what I was replying to re: comparisons between outcomes in states that surged in march vs. surging months later.

In comment 14949467 pjcas18 said:


Quote:



More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring.




I meant that in terms of what is controllable vs looking at results and saying "they learned nothing from NY" when yes they did - they didn't force nursing homes to take COVID patients - what did NY do that they should learn from that they didn't. Please be specific.
Florida at the start should have been better prepared  
kicker : 8/14/2020 11:19 am : link
to handle COVID, in terms of healthcare infrastructure. On average, they have 1.5 RN's for each bed; in NYC (national average), it is 1.34 (1.33). That means that there is more staff prepared to handle any surge in cases.

They also have nearly double the number of RN's per doctor (9.67 to 5.39) compared to NY.

I will start with a premise: there are very few governors or state-level politicians that I would applaud. Both of these states do not fall into this "applause" category.

But there are very few signs that FL learned any lessons from NY, when their HC delivery system was more set up to be able to handle the surge in cases. The fact that their numbers are comparable is disheartening.
California's numbers  
kicker : 8/14/2020 11:23 am : link
are 1.76 RN's per bed, and nearly 18 RN's per doctor. Which, though the total numbers are high, per capita numbers are pretty good.
masks + indoor bars/restaurants (+obviously large indoor gatherings)  
Eric on Li : 8/14/2020 11:27 am : link
are the things that seem obvious based on data that should be near universally mandated right now - but especially in areas that are still in the surge thresholds (cases, positivity rates, etc). I'm not sure of the exact timelines of what Florida or any state other than CA has done on those but I'm pretty sure they are 1 of the states that has not done all of those things and i'd imagine is why they have had a strong enough surge to get to 3rd highest per capita cases.

Deaths and hospitalizations are certainly more important statistics than cases, but it is apples and oranges to compare deaths now to earlier in the pandemic when a lot less was known. Massachussets is 3rd highest in deaths per 1m behind just NY and NJ, with CT and RI rounding out the top 5. Notice the trend there?
Eric  
kicker : 8/14/2020 11:38 am : link
Here's one.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/florida/4
The governors  
Lines of Scrimmage : 8/14/2020 11:39 am : link
opening are trying to salvage what they can from the economy. Right now stimulus has helped. But it's ending. The deficits are going to be enormous. What sucks is that the new people entering the workforce get screwed and the states will keep the older, higher paid and often less productive staff.

Here is what I worry about. Layoffs at the bigger corporate companies after the New Year. Then what about all the outstanding loans, lines of credits, unpaid leases etc. from business closures? That has to hit the financial sector at some point. And then....what can be done? This is only magnified by how long our economy and the world stays closed.

In addition to exercise, Vitamin D and keeping weight in control I have read lots of positives in intermittent fasting.

RE: Eric  
Eric on Li : 8/14/2020 11:52 am : link
In comment 14949548 kicker said:
Quote:
Here's one.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/florida/4


thank you - it looks like FL did shut down bars at the end of June which seems like the most important policy decision other than masks. It looks like they may have even been earlier to shut down bars the 2nd time than CA, though that was likely because they reopened earlier and were surging earlier.

this is highly simplistic and speculative but since their various re-openings/re-closings seem similar to us in CA, the mask mandate seems like the biggest policy difference if I was going to guess the difference in outcomes per capita between these highly populous states that hit their surges in this similar time window (Texas would fit this too).

and I suppose the decisions on schools will be the next case study.
RE: RE: I may have read this out of context bc I havent read the entire thread  
x meadowlander : 8/14/2020 11:58 am : link
In comment 14949535 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14949533 Eric on Li said:


Quote: I meant that in terms of what is controllable vs looking at results and saying "they learned nothing from NY" when yes they did - they didn't force nursing homes to take COVID patients - what did NY do that they should learn from that they didn't. Please be specific.
Out of curiosity, where should recovering CoVid patients who still needed professional care have been sent? Remember - at that point in time, all hospitals and converted field hospitals/Javits Center/Floating hospitals/Rural Hospitals were being prepped for an expected tsunami of NEW CoVid cases. Space, staff and supplies were at a premium - Hospital bed locations were created anywhere there was space, including HALLWAYS. (my wife electronically built some of these)

Upstate NY had plenty of people very upset at the prospect of having downstate CoVid patients shipped to counties with barely any cases. In the end, I think only Utica, maybe Albany took any overflow but in real time back in March/April, there were not many good options.

So - where should the released CoVid patients who still needed professional care have been sent?
The governors fighting to open states  
Mike from Ohio : 8/14/2020 12:36 pm : link
are doing so for economic reasons. But they are doing it by also mitigating a pandemic that is still raging in their states by downplaying its importance. Trade offs of economic health vs lives is a wonderful theoretical discussion when it is statistics. It changes when those statistics have names and families.

When some of these governors come out and say they are willing to accept the higher death tolls that come with fully re-opening, I will give them the benefit of the doubt. But I have not heard that. They simply ignore that decision by pretending opening everything up is safe, and those that want things closed are playing politics.
I've been critical of further lockdowns (or non-bar/entertainment  
kicker : 8/14/2020 12:46 pm : link
venue business closures) in California. For a variety of reasons (non-compliance; economic hurt, and issues related to that), I no longer think it's the first-best option.

Where the U.S. really screwed the pooch was:

1. Encouraging and incentivizing mask wearing when going into stores.

2. Encouraging and incentivizing outdoor activities while maintaining distancing.

3. Encouraging and incentivizing self-quarantines (or, at the least, not lying about your fucking symptoms or past positive tests).

Some of these are structurally related to social welfare issues (lack of paid sick leave or childcare options; lack of Medicaid access in states that did not expand); some are just the goddamn stubborn nature of Americans.

While we need to have conversations about re-opening the economy to a greater scale than we are seeing in certain areas, we must acknowledge it's going to come at an awful human cost, but we've also got to get rid of this stupid stigma that masks and social distancing aren't effective.
RE: RE: Eric  
kicker : 8/14/2020 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14949554 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14949548 kicker said:


Quote:


Here's one.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/florida/4



thank you - it looks like FL did shut down bars at the end of June which seems like the most important policy decision other than masks. It looks like they may have even been earlier to shut down bars the 2nd time than CA, though that was likely because they reopened earlier and were surging earlier.

this is highly simplistic and speculative but since their various re-openings/re-closings seem similar to us in CA, the mask mandate seems like the biggest policy difference if I was going to guess the difference in outcomes per capita between these highly populous states that hit their surges in this similar time window (Texas would fit this too).

and I suppose the decisions on schools will be the next case study.


Yeah; if you take a look at the inflection points of and correlate that to closures, you see there's a pattern.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
KDavies : 8/14/2020 1:12 pm : link
In comment 14949470 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
In comment 14949467 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949419 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949415 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949411 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.



WTF are you talking about?

FL has under 9,000 deaths, NY has over 32,000 and again, Florida is bigger.

and what lessons did people learn from NY?

Don't force nursing homes to take COVID patients? No shit. No one thought that made sense except maybe one person the media and fanboys fawn over.

NY was an unmitigated disaster.


I was referring to the nursing home numbers you cited - everyone acknowledges that 5800 dead in NY is bad, but 3000 shouldn't be acceptable either.

And Florida has already surpassed NY in total cases. What do you think the reason is behind Florida having more cases than NY despite having more time to prepare for it?



More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring. What would you have suggested be done differently without the benefit of 2020 hindsight?

When FL re-opened they had low numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Follow the science people say, so they did (at the time).

They still have low number of deaths (relatively speaking) and at the end of the day, that's really how I view success.




Holly Shit is the post for real?

They barely were on lockdown. They let churches stay open because they were “essential”.

They also were caught fucking with the data after the fired their SAS Data Analytics person.

If their was a playbook for what not do they wrote it.

They acted like it wasn’t going to happen to them and went about business as usual.

They are lucky that they have more hospitals than most states because I of their demographics.


I live in South Florida. You are telling a bunch of lies. It is not normal and has not been for a long time. Schools closed in March. Public schools are still closed. Masks are mandatory. Bars are closed, restaurants were closed to takeout only and now are finally opened to 50% capacity, etc. what are you even talking about?
RE: I've been critical of further lockdowns (or non-bar/entertainment  
Eric on Li : 8/14/2020 1:26 pm : link
In comment 14949590 kicker said:
Quote:
venue business closures) in California. For a variety of reasons (non-compliance; economic hurt, and issues related to that), I no longer think it's the first-best option.

Where the U.S. really screwed the pooch was:

1. Encouraging and incentivizing mask wearing when going into stores.

2. Encouraging and incentivizing outdoor activities while maintaining distancing.

3. Encouraging and incentivizing self-quarantines (or, at the least, not lying about your fucking symptoms or past positive tests).

Some of these are structurally related to social welfare issues (lack of paid sick leave or childcare options; lack of Medicaid access in states that did not expand); some are just the goddamn stubborn nature of Americans.

While we need to have conversations about re-opening the economy to a greater scale than we are seeing in certain areas, we must acknowledge it's going to come at an awful human cost, but we've also got to get rid of this stupid stigma that masks and social distancing aren't effective.


Agree with all this and would add 1 thing, I think by and large there has been poor messaging on a key reason why buying time is important - which is the rapid advancement of treatments and therapeutics. The numbers above from the Northwell guy being the case in point, if you are hospitalized in his hospital now you have a 2x better chance of surviving now than you did a few months ago because of the advancements in care.

This is a guess but I expect most people would say the reason for slowing the spread was so hospitals won't get overrun - which is true but also a theoretical most people will never fully appreciate until it's experienced personally or locally in some way.

If people realized that every month they don't get it their chances of surviving whenever they do get it go up 10% (or whatever the # is), I would think that would have more of an impact of on day to day decision making and cost/benefit analysis.
That's a good point Eric.  
kicker : 8/14/2020 1:29 pm : link
I also think that perhaps something else is how the experts have talked about "capacity". They have talked in terms of ventilators and beds, because it's easiest for a layperson to understand.

But a lot of the resource struggle has been human labor. In hospitals, the work is done in fixed proportions, unlike a lot of other places. We simply aren't at the point in our technological time frame (for healthcare) to have rapid automated or tele medicine.
COVID19 Rapid Test Kits  
JPinstripes : 8/14/2020 1:54 pm : link
I use these all the time. Simple finger prick that tests for the live virus and also if you have the antibodies (ImG/IgG.
COVID19 Rapid Test Kits - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 8/14/2020 2:03 pm : link
In comment 14949623 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 14949470 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


In comment 14949467 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949419 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949415 pjcas18 said:


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In comment 14949411 eclipz928 said:


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of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.



WTF are you talking about?

FL has under 9,000 deaths, NY has over 32,000 and again, Florida is bigger.

and what lessons did people learn from NY?

Don't force nursing homes to take COVID patients? No shit. No one thought that made sense except maybe one person the media and fanboys fawn over.

NY was an unmitigated disaster.


I was referring to the nursing home numbers you cited - everyone acknowledges that 5800 dead in NY is bad, but 3000 shouldn't be acceptable either.

And Florida has already surpassed NY in total cases. What do you think the reason is behind Florida having more cases than NY despite having more time to prepare for it?



More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring. What would you have suggested be done differently without the benefit of 2020 hindsight?

When FL re-opened they had low numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Follow the science people say, so they did (at the time).

They still have low number of deaths (relatively speaking) and at the end of the day, that's really how I view success.




Holly Shit is the post for real?

They barely were on lockdown. They let churches stay open because they were “essential”.

They also were caught fucking with the data after the fired their SAS Data Analytics person.

If their was a playbook for what not do they wrote it.

They acted like it wasn’t going to happen to them and went about business as usual.

They are lucky that they have more hospitals than most states because I of their demographics.



I live in South Florida. You are telling a bunch of lies. It is not normal and has not been for a long time. Schools closed in March. Public schools are still closed. Masks are mandatory. Bars are closed, restaurants were closed to takeout only and now are finally opened to 50% capacity, etc. what are you even talking about?


I mean they started lifting restrictions on April 30th which was only a month into quarantine and started later then everyone else. Your true quarantine was 3 or 4 weeks same with Georgia.

Up here in the North East it took until like June before you could even eat outside or really do much of anything outside the house.

The fact of the matter is they left a to of this in the Floridians hands instead of taking it seriously like other states. If they had been on a true lockdown as long as we had you guys wouldn’t be where you are now, but something something restricting my freedom.


Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 8/14/2020 2:06 pm : link
In comment 14949623 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 14949470 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


In comment 14949467 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949419 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949415 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949411 eclipz928 said:


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of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.



WTF are you talking about?

FL has under 9,000 deaths, NY has over 32,000 and again, Florida is bigger.

and what lessons did people learn from NY?

Don't force nursing homes to take COVID patients? No shit. No one thought that made sense except maybe one person the media and fanboys fawn over.

NY was an unmitigated disaster.


I was referring to the nursing home numbers you cited - everyone acknowledges that 5800 dead in NY is bad, but 3000 shouldn't be acceptable either.

And Florida has already surpassed NY in total cases. What do you think the reason is behind Florida having more cases than NY despite having more time to prepare for it?



More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring. What would you have suggested be done differently without the benefit of 2020 hindsight?

When FL re-opened they had low numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Follow the science people say, so they did (at the time).

They still have low number of deaths (relatively speaking) and at the end of the day, that's really how I view success.




Holly Shit is the post for real?

They barely were on lockdown. They let churches stay open because they were “essential”.

They also were caught fucking with the data after the fired their SAS Data Analytics person.

If their was a playbook for what not do they wrote it.

They acted like it wasn’t going to happen to them and went about business as usual.

They are lucky that they have more hospitals than most states because I of their demographics.



I live in South Florida. You are telling a bunch of lies. It is not normal and has not been for a long time. Schools closed in March. Public schools are still closed. Masks are mandatory. Bars are closed, restaurants were closed to takeout only and now are finally opened to 50% capacity, etc. what are you even talking about?


I mean they started lifting restrictions on April 30th which was only a month into quarantine and started later then everyone else. Your true quarantine was 3 or 4 weeks.

Up here in the North East it took until like June before you could even eat outside or really do much of anything outside the house. Shit you still can’t do that much right now.

The fact of the matter is they left a ton of this in the Floridians hands instead of taking it seriously like other states. If they had been on a true lockdown as long as we had you guys wouldn’t be where you are now, but something something restricting my freedom.


Florida moves to ease coronavirus lockdown as promising treatment emerges - ( New Window )
The messaging  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 2:10 pm : link
led to this behavior. Not one person or political party.

All the leaders, media, etc..

Follow the science they said, two weeks to flatten the curve they said, don't wear masks, wear masks, wear gaiters, asymptomnatic can't transmit it, now they can, kids can't transmit it, wait - yes they can, WHO and CDC differing, wear eye covering, wait for a vaccine, a vaccine won't be effective, "new normal", no church services, we cannot protect people in prisons so they have to be released, no singing in church, no crowd over 100, over 50, over 25, no funerals, but you can protest because that's important.

restaurants can open (for dine in - in limited capacity), and you can drink there but bars can't open unless they serve food, but it has to be substantial food and not chicken wings, etc, etc. etc.....rules that did not seem to be consistent or follow science (at least not seemingly). They seemed arbitrary at best, draconian at worst.

- all while the virus was producing a sub 65 death rate that was not compelling.

I like to believe in the good of people, all people, so I feel like most people would make small sacrifices for the greater good, but they have to trust the message of sacrifice.

Once you lose the trust of the people you lose it IMO and I don't know if you can ever regain it.

Great to see the shut down forever crew back together again  
Nitro : 8/14/2020 2:38 pm : link
This hysteria needs to end. The cost continues to stagger. Open everything today.
CDC: One quarter of young adults contemplated suicide during pandemic - ( New Window )
.  
arcarsenal : 8/14/2020 2:49 pm : link
I'm honestly curious as to who here has suggested everything be "shut down forever"

Creating straw men doesn't accomplish anything.

I really don't think anyone wants that. I'm also pretty sure that "open everything back up right now" also isn't the solution.

I don't know why people feel the need to speak in such absolutes when it's clear no one is going to have all the right answers. Even the experts are still learning and adjusting guidelines on the fly because there are still so many unknowns involved.
RE: .  
Nitro : 8/14/2020 3:17 pm : link
In comment 14949681 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
I'm honestly curious as to who here has suggested everything be "shut down forever"

Creating straw men doesn't accomplish anything.

I really don't think anyone wants that. I'm also pretty sure that "open everything back up right now" also isn't the solution.

I don't know why people feel the need to speak in such absolutes when it's clear no one is going to have all the right answers. Even the experts are still learning and adjusting guidelines on the fly because there are still so many unknowns involved.


I'd disagree, there's quite a few people in this thread who seem perfectly content to work remotely indefinitely, socialize in their coronacule indefinitely and since their lives' haven't been severely negative impact think any dissention is tantamount to reckless death seeking. My response is largely at that mentality. All these silly 'you can open your bar but only if it serves food' or 'if you've been to South Dakota you have to quarantine, but if you've been to Wyoming, you don't' are hallmarks of the Doing Something™ mentality that will keep us mired in this bullshit FOREVER. End all restrictions, open everything. Sweden never lockdown - where's the smoke from their massive funeral pyres?

Also, stop talking about cases - many cases are people who didn't even realize they had it, let alone became severely ill. Cases are a good thing, that means it's making its way through as it's going to have to do. We missed the window for containment (Thanks China!) so this is what we got left.

Let me ask this, what's the criteria for all restrictions to be lifted? Is it agreed upon? Where is the proof that these capricious restrictions are effective at anything other than societal destruction? There's been such an abridgement of rights throughout this whole thing and nary a peep from a lot of people, in the name of public health. 150K dead in 5 months - how many would've died anyway? That's a long time and a low number for a country of 300,000,000+. How many have died or declined because of the restrictions imposed? Missed a cancer screening? Gained weight from lack of exercise and movement, which will beget future health issues? How many businesses are permanently shuttered? How many lives have been financially ruined? How many people are suffering from the effects of isolation?

I'm absolutely at my wit's end with all these people who've turned fear into a virtue, and thus the more fearful you are the more virtuous you are. Fuck all that noise. Does anyone have all the right answers? Of course not. Are all these unverified half measure and infringements getting the job done? Clearly not. Nowhere has done something that 'works' in the sense of 100% elimination; it's an unachievable goal that needs to be dropped.

If you're still so terrified then you can stay the fuck home forever. Stop telling me what I can do. We've now passed 150 days of '15 days to stop the spread'. At that point, the understanding was that people were going to get sick, but we wanted to mitigate the impact. This has been achieved. In a now desolate NYC, are there capacity issues? Which part of America has bodies stacked up as hospital staff desperately triage their inundated wards?


RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Other states, including Florida had the benefit  
KDavies : 8/14/2020 3:26 pm : link
In comment 14949656 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
In comment 14949623 KDavies said:


Quote:


In comment 14949470 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


In comment 14949467 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949419 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949415 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14949411 eclipz928 said:


Quote:


of early preparation and learning from New York's successes and mistakes on handling the virus. The fact that Florida's numbers are even approaching New York's is shameful.



WTF are you talking about?

FL has under 9,000 deaths, NY has over 32,000 and again, Florida is bigger.

and what lessons did people learn from NY?

Don't force nursing homes to take COVID patients? No shit. No one thought that made sense except maybe one person the media and fanboys fawn over.

NY was an unmitigated disaster.


I was referring to the nursing home numbers you cited - everyone acknowledges that 5800 dead in NY is bad, but 3000 shouldn't be acceptable either.

And Florida has already surpassed NY in total cases. What do you think the reason is behind Florida having more cases than NY despite having more time to prepare for it?



More time to prepare for sounds like a red herring. What would you have suggested be done differently without the benefit of 2020 hindsight?

When FL re-opened they had low numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Follow the science people say, so they did (at the time).

They still have low number of deaths (relatively speaking) and at the end of the day, that's really how I view success.




Holly Shit is the post for real?

They barely were on lockdown. They let churches stay open because they were “essential”.

They also were caught fucking with the data after the fired their SAS Data Analytics person.

If their was a playbook for what not do they wrote it.

They acted like it wasn’t going to happen to them and went about business as usual.

They are lucky that they have more hospitals than most states because I of their demographics.



I live in South Florida. You are telling a bunch of lies. It is not normal and has not been for a long time. Schools closed in March. Public schools are still closed. Masks are mandatory. Bars are closed, restaurants were closed to takeout only and now are finally opened to 50% capacity, etc. what are you even talking about?



I mean they started lifting restrictions on April 30th which was only a month into quarantine and started later then everyone else. Your true quarantine was 3 or 4 weeks.

Up here in the North East it took until like June before you could even eat outside or really do much of anything outside the house. Shit you still can’t do that much right now.

The fact of the matter is they left a ton of this in the Floridians hands instead of taking it seriously like other states. If they had been on a true lockdown as long as we had you guys wouldn’t be where you are now, but something something restricting my freedom.
Florida moves to ease coronavirus lockdown as promising treatment emerges - ( New Window )


Florida has taken it pretty damn seriously and has done the best they could to protect the elderly and the vulnerable. What is taking it seriously in your mind? Sending sick people into nursing homes to kill the elderly by the thousands?
RE: RE: .  
Mad Mike : 8/14/2020 3:27 pm : link
In comment 14949697 Nitro said:
Quote:
Sweden never lockdown - where's the smoke from their massive funeral pyres?

Sweden has one of the highest per-capita rates of COVID deaths in the world. Higher than the U.S., higher than France, an order of magnitude higher than their Scandinavian neighbors. I think only Spain and Italy have had a higher rate*, so there's quite a bit of smoke there.

*With the caveat that I think most of us distrust the figures from China and Russia, and NK hasn't even released data.
RE: RE: RE: .  
Nitro : 8/14/2020 3:31 pm : link
In comment 14949702 Mad Mike said:
Quote:
In comment 14949697 Nitro said:


Quote:


Sweden never lockdown - where's the smoke from their massive funeral pyres?


Sweden has one of the highest per-capita rates of COVID deaths in the world. Higher than the U.S., higher than France, an order of magnitude higher than their Scandinavian neighbors. I think only Spain and Italy have had a higher rate*, so there's quite a bit of smoke there.

*With the caveat that I think most of us distrust the figures from China and Russia, and NK hasn't even released data.


So what's the number?
Q2 GDP numbers rolling in across the globe. Stunning  
kicker : 8/14/2020 3:34 pm : link
the massive decline in wealth.

Sweden: -8.4
Denmark: -7.2
Norway: -8.5 (forecasted)
Germany: -10.9 (forecasted)

Question  
Nitro : 8/14/2020 3:35 pm : link
is xmead Cuomo's Press Secretary?

Quote:
His responses don't match his excellent reporting and analysis in his many, many press conferences which have been substantive, meaningful, heartfelt - he drew tears and even some laughter at times. He was everything you could ask for a leader to be. He defined his career with those press conferences, turned himself into a valid future Presidential contender.





Yeah who knew sending sick people into vulnerable populations would cause death? Except all of human civilization since antiquity?
.  
arcarsenal : 8/14/2020 3:38 pm : link
Ah, you're one of the "no one tells me what to do" people...

It's not being "terrified" as much as it's looking for the right way to get around this. You are thinking for yourself and what you want and what works for your career and lifestyle - which is great, but not everyone else is in that same box.

Perhaps if you were immunocompromised or spent time with someone who was, or perhaps if you had lost someone close to you to this virus, your tune would be different.

Maybe if you had become sick enough to be intubated or spend 2 weeks in a hospital bed, you'd see things differently.

Do you have kids? That could also potentially change your perspective, as could countless other factors.

Stop assuming your mentality is the only mentality people can or should have towards this. It's not helpful. You just sound like a brazen jackass.

Abandoning all caution and just opening everything immediately with flu season looming could be absolutely devastating and have chaotic consequences. I'm sorry, but that would be an absolutely careless and ludicrous thing to do right now.

If you're such a badass, go out and do your thing. Skip the mask, skip the precautions - just get out there and show everyone how unafraid you are. I'm sure it'll be really impressive - maybe you'll get a 6 to come home with you and you can trade germs and really own the libs that way.

I don't want a "forever lockdown" and it benefits no one to do that. So, again, you may as well just cut the shit with that line altogether - it's a ridiculous straw man and isn't making any argument.

Some lockdowns were necessary back in April and around that time because hospitals in some areas were literally completely overrun and had beds in hallways. Some medical workers had to decide who lived and who died because there wasn't enough equipment/capacity to treat everyone. Imagine having to make that call? I'm sure you'll never have to... lucky you.

Re-opening needs to happen, but it needs to be done strategically. A packed out, indoor bar is going to be a significantly more transmissible environment than a place with outdoor seating and space for people to have some distance between them. The phases get there eventually, but just blowing through all of the precautions does nothing but set everyone back.

The last fucking thing I want to deal with is starting from scratch where we are *forced* to shut things down again because numbers are exploding again and hospitals are becoming over-stressed. I'd much rather proceed with caution and keep moving forward.

Having to start from the beginning would be absolutely devastating, and that's almost guaranteed to happen if you throw up your arms and just say "okay, everyone, go back to how you were like it never happened... good luck!"

That's not the answer, and I don't think any reputable epidemiologist or medical professional would think so either.
RE: Question  
KDavies : 8/14/2020 3:39 pm : link
In comment 14949711 Nitro said:
Quote:
is xmead Cuomo's Press Secretary?



Quote:


His responses don't match his excellent reporting and analysis in his many, many press conferences which have been substantive, meaningful, heartfelt - he drew tears and even some laughter at times. He was everything you could ask for a leader to be. He defined his career with those press conferences, turned himself into a valid future Presidential contender.






Yeah who knew sending sick people into vulnerable populations would cause death? Except all of human civilization since antiquity?


Lol. Ain’t that the truth. NY kills the vulnerable, spreads the disease throughout the country, and then talks shit about other states that get it later than they do, but keep the deaths much lower. Comical
Nitro  
Lines of Scrimmage : 8/14/2020 4:07 pm : link
A little extreme but you make some good points and more people think this way then you realize......but are probably staying "silent."

KDav, for a little while I thought xmead was the Gov's "all natural" brother. NY'ers who lost loved ones are pushing hard to show the actual number of NH and ALF deaths in NY. Will be interesting how that shakes out.

Sweden has a high death rate but the amount of people dying is very low right now. Probably a better comparison will be looking at this 6 months or longer down the road and then comparing with all factors considered.

RE: Nitro  
KDavies : 8/14/2020 4:15 pm : link
In comment 14949735 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
A little extreme but you make some good points and more people think this way then you realize......but are probably staying "silent."

KDav, for a little while I thought xmead was the Gov's "all natural" brother. NY'ers who lost loved ones are pushing hard to show the actual number of NH and ALF deaths in NY. Will be interesting how that shakes out.

Sweden has a high death rate but the amount of people dying is very low right now. Probably a better comparison will be looking at this 6 months or longer down the road and then comparing with all factors considered.


I don’t get the glorification of Cuomo. It is absolutely mind-boggling. Pretty much every populated area will get it, and it will run through a good part of the population.

As Nitro said, the #1 thing everyone knew is to protect the elderly/vulnerable. If it weren’t for the government making laws protecting the government from criminal/civil liability, Cuomo should be criminally charged for those easily preventable deaths and the state should be sued into oblivion. Instead, he will not be held accountable, and NY will be collecting plenty of estate tax from those they killed
arc  
Nitro : 8/14/2020 4:30 pm : link
Quote:
Ah, you're one of the "no one tells me what to do" people...


Nailed it - definitely just a matter of juvenile rebellion and not amazement at the gross abridgement of rights people are willing to embrace on specious evidence. Freedom of assembly (unless it's the right cause), freedom of religion, freedom of movement, freedom of association, on and on. Please point out other illnesses where the healthy were quarantined like this? The precedent for this ridiculousness I'm apparently missing. If you say, actually it's unprecedented, then it should warrant extreme scrunity. I don't think this is effective policy or worth the other costs. I think it's hamhanded, one-size-fits-all government with scary implications. My mentality is that treating everyone like the most at risk people has been a fucking disaster - you can call that brazenly jackassed if you'd like.

Reading this thread, there's definitely people who are terrified. They're driving the car for the rest of us. In any scenario, if you're extremely at risk you should be cautious - if you are not, you are being mandated to do this whether or not it's actually all that sensible and no matter any other cost. You know a 1/3 of the US missed their housing payment in July? How many people in extreme economic strife have been prohibited from working through no fault of their own? How many businesses have been forcibly closed while Amazon and Walmart gobble up their market share, because apparently they are allowed to be open?

Quote:
Perhaps if you were immunocompromised or spent time with someone who was, or perhaps if you had lost someone close to you to this virus, your tune would be different.


If I were immunocompromised I would behave differently, if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. Maybe if I had someone close die I could lord it over BBI like others have. Thing is, I actually did have Coronavirus in the spring, and after a rough weekend and a week or two of persistent cough, it was over. Is my experience the only one? Of course not, but stop trying to frighten me with something I've experienced.

Quote:
Stop assuming your mentality is the only mentality people can or should have towards this. It's not helpful. You just sound like a brazen jackass.


Kind of seems what your doing. The zealousness of the cautious crowd will keep us mired in this depression long beyond it's utility.

Quote:
If you're such a badass, go out and do your thing. Skip the mask, skip the precautions - just get out there and show everyone how unafraid you are. I'm sure it'll be really impressive - maybe you'll get a 6 to come home with you and you can trade germs and really own the libs that way.


I assume this is projection, and pretty risible bait at that. I could be single, dating, married or an Ottoman Shah and my point would remain the same, and you betray your own political priors with this tawdry cheapshot. Really makes me think significantly less of you, someone who I generally felt was fairly thoughtful.

Quote:
I don't want a "forever lockdown" and it benefits no one to do that. So, again, you may as well just cut the shit with that line altogether - it's a ridiculous straw man and isn't making any argument.


I'm not fighting grocery store cashiers about my right to go maskless, but I still think this is all dumb bullshit - somehow wearing a bandana like Jesse James is peak epidemiology!! Go to a restaurant and eat mask free but remask if you go the bathroom. If your protest is righteous enough, social distancing need not apply!

I'll play the game, but I don't hear people asking 'when does it end' which makes me feel they're content with this existing forever. There should be a clear exit strategy but instead it's let's just go deeper and deeper. And since you've brought it up, a leading 'person' suggests they'll mandate masks in all scenarios for a 3 period minimum and it's suppose be like, shrug?

Quote:
Some lockdowns were necessary back in April and around that time because hospitals in some areas were literally completely overrun and had beds in hallways. Some medical workers had to decide who lived and who died because there wasn't enough equipment/capacity to treat everyone. Imagine having to make that call? I'm sure you'll never have to... lucky you.


I am not criticizing cautious lockdowns in March and April, I am criticizing their continued utility in August near September. Spare me the triage worst case scenarios as a blanket defense of criticism.

Quote:
The last fucking thing I want to deal with is starting from scratch where we are *forced* to shut things down again because numbers are exploding again and hospitals are becoming over-stressed. I'd much rather proceed with caution and keep moving forward.


Well we were all forced to do that following mass protest, riot and looting, but that's not allowed to be mentioned. Seriously, NYS contact tracers aren't allowed to ask about protest attendance.

Quote:
That's not the answer, and I don't think any reputable epidemiologist or medical professional would think so either.


They are not the only people with an opinion that matters. Consult them, utilize their opinions and info judiciously and then factor it along with all the other information that's needed here. Fauci farts and half of you are like 'well now we have to all fart' and it's like, this is just one piece of the puzzle. It feels like our country is collapsing - I'd like that to not happen. I think a big part of that is as immediate return to normal as possible. Even if that happened, there'd still be a lag as people slowly dip their toes back in. If people want to resume their lives, caveat emptor. We're only delaying the inevitable.
kdav  
Lines of Scrimmage : 8/14/2020 4:37 pm : link
That is mostly because people follow the channel of their party imo. I watch both sides and it is like two different worlds depending on the channel. Cnn's Tapper called out the nursing home deaths. I was surprised they didn't fire him or put him on at 3 a.m.

I believe your in Florida. So the news is the all the cases their, etc. Yet that governor warned that his state was close to "economic devastation" a couple months ago so I understand his logic. So much lost revenue from tourism. Most don't hear that side when they are not from whatever state is in question.
RE: kdav  
kicker : 8/14/2020 4:42 pm : link
In comment 14949755 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
That is mostly because people follow the channel of their party imo. I watch both sides and it is like two different worlds depending on the channel. Cnn's Tapper called out the nursing home deaths. I was surprised they didn't fire him or put him on at 3 a.m.

I believe your in Florida. So the news is the all the cases their, etc. Yet that governor warned that his state was close to "economic devastation" a couple months ago so I understand his logic. So much lost revenue from tourism. Most don't hear that side when they are not from whatever state is in question.


The economic burden from this is going to make a lot of people and places reassess their priorities for decades to come. Even in Sweden, the golden child of Scandinavia, we have seen a GDP decrease of 8.2% for Q2.

This is not going to be a quick, v-shaped recovery. And given the apparent month before further stimulus may legislated (rather than go into effect), the economic harms from this are going to last well past any large scale reopenings.
RE: arc  
RicFlair : 8/14/2020 4:43 pm : link
In comment 14949750 Nitro said:
Quote:


Quote:


Ah, you're one of the "no one tells me what to do" people...



Nailed it - definitely just a matter of juvenile rebellion and not amazement at the gross abridgement of rights people are willing to embrace on specious evidence. Freedom of assembly (unless it's the right cause), freedom of religion, freedom of movement, freedom of association, on and on. Please point out other illnesses where the healthy were quarantined like this? The precedent for this ridiculousness I'm apparently missing. If you say, actually it's unprecedented, then it should warrant extreme scrunity. I don't think this is effective policy or worth the other costs. I think it's hamhanded, one-size-fits-all government with scary implications. My mentality is that treating everyone like the most at risk people has been a fucking disaster - you can call that brazenly jackassed if you'd like.

Reading this thread, there's definitely people who are terrified. They're driving the car for the rest of us. In any scenario, if you're extremely at risk you should be cautious - if you are not, you are being mandated to do this whether or not it's actually all that sensible and no matter any other cost. You know a 1/3 of the US missed their housing payment in July? How many people in extreme economic strife have been prohibited from working through no fault of their own? How many businesses have been forcibly closed while Amazon and Walmart gobble up their market share, because apparently they are allowed to be open?



Quote:


Perhaps if you were immunocompromised or spent time with someone who was, or perhaps if you had lost someone close to you to this virus, your tune would be different.



If I were immunocompromised I would behave differently, if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. Maybe if I had someone close die I could lord it over BBI like others have. Thing is, I actually did have Coronavirus in the spring, and after a rough weekend and a week or two of persistent cough, it was over. Is my experience the only one? Of course not, but stop trying to frighten me with something I've experienced.



Quote:


Stop assuming your mentality is the only mentality people can or should have towards this. It's not helpful. You just sound like a brazen jackass.



Kind of seems what your doing. The zealousness of the cautious crowd will keep us mired in this depression long beyond it's utility.



Quote:


If you're such a badass, go out and do your thing. Skip the mask, skip the precautions - just get out there and show everyone how unafraid you are. I'm sure it'll be really impressive - maybe you'll get a 6 to come home with you and you can trade germs and really own the libs that way.



I assume this is projection, and pretty risible bait at that. I could be single, dating, married or an Ottoman Shah and my point would remain the same, and you betray your own political priors with this tawdry cheapshot. Really makes me think significantly less of you, someone who I generally felt was fairly thoughtful.



Quote:


I don't want a "forever lockdown" and it benefits no one to do that. So, again, you may as well just cut the shit with that line altogether - it's a ridiculous straw man and isn't making any argument.



I'm not fighting grocery store cashiers about my right to go maskless, but I still think this is all dumb bullshit - somehow wearing a bandana like Jesse James is peak epidemiology!! Go to a restaurant and eat mask free but remask if you go the bathroom. If your protest is righteous enough, social distancing need not apply!

I'll play the game, but I don't hear people asking 'when does it end' which makes me feel they're content with this existing forever. There should be a clear exit strategy but instead it's let's just go deeper and deeper. And since you've brought it up, a leading 'person' suggests they'll mandate masks in all scenarios for a 3 period minimum and it's suppose be like, shrug?



Quote:


Some lockdowns were necessary back in April and around that time because hospitals in some areas were literally completely overrun and had beds in hallways. Some medical workers had to decide who lived and who died because there wasn't enough equipment/capacity to treat everyone. Imagine having to make that call? I'm sure you'll never have to... lucky you.



I am not criticizing cautious lockdowns in March and April, I am criticizing their continued utility in August near September. Spare me the triage worst case scenarios as a blanket defense of criticism.



Quote:


The last fucking thing I want to deal with is starting from scratch where we are *forced* to shut things down again because numbers are exploding again and hospitals are becoming over-stressed. I'd much rather proceed with caution and keep moving forward.



Well we were all forced to do that following mass protest, riot and looting, but that's not allowed to be mentioned. Seriously, NYS contact tracers aren't allowed to ask about protest attendance.



Quote:


That's not the answer, and I don't think any reputable epidemiologist or medical professional would think so either.



They are not the only people with an opinion that matters. Consult them, utilize their opinions and info judiciously and then factor it along with all the other information that's needed here. Fauci farts and half of you are like 'well now we have to all fart' and it's like, this is just one piece of the puzzle. It feels like our country is collapsing - I'd like that to not happen. I think a big part of that is as immediate return to normal as possible. Even if that happened, there'd still be a lag as people slowly dip their toes back in. If people want to resume their lives, caveat emptor. We're only delaying the inevitable.



You talk about wanting to return to normal, plenty of countries have returned to much closer to normal than us, why do you think that is?

Probably because they listened to the doctors.
.  
Nitro : 8/14/2020 4:46 pm : link
In comment 14949761 RicFlair said:
Quote:

You talk about wanting to return to normal, plenty of countries have returned to much closer to normal than us, why do you think that is?

Probably because they listened to the doctors.


And I could say they never had it as bad because they have stronger internal and external border controls and had fewer tourists and we'd both be right/wrong because nothing in this world is univariate, thanks for playing.
Thanks for playing?  
RicFlair : 8/14/2020 4:47 pm : link
Ok lol.

Your chiding, schoolmarm  
Nitro : 8/14/2020 4:50 pm : link
wit is invaluable, thank you for your contribution.
Your condescending attitude  
RicFlair : 8/14/2020 4:51 pm : link
is an even greater contribution. Keep it up.
People need to stop  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 5:02 pm : link
saying listen to the doctors or follow the science.

because it's become a trope with no meaning.

When doctors say they support HCQ with zinc and z-pack they're ostracized because that's not what "they" want you to say.

Yet, faked studies showing inefficacy of HCQ are shared without scrutiny.

so it's really listen to the doctors or follow the science if they support your agenda.

But again, I think most people would be willing to consider guidelines or conditions if they supported common sense.

For example, the youth hockey guidelines just came out for Massachusetts. They have kept kids off the ice all pandemic, recently opened up for socially distanced practices (whatever that is supposed to mean) and then issued this gem for guidance on games:

Quote:
....Ice Hockey Games Will Be Allowed on Monday, August 17th

Hockey games will be allowed to resume on Monday, August 17th, provided organizers and participants can comply with updated Massachusetts guidance and collect contact tracing information for all participants, officials, and spectators.
..
3) Practices can continue using up to two cohorts of 25 spaced at least 14’ apart and social distanced within the cohort.....

5) Face coverings for players on the bench and when taking a face-off
6) Social distancing on the bench (6’ separation)
....
10) Team room use remains at 50% capacity


Meanwhile, New Hampshire does not have any guidelines and out kids have been in tournaments there the every other weekend just about since June.

no issues, no flare ups, no hot spots.

And look at the infection rates, hospitalizations, and deaths for kids.

Who is this protecting? Wear your mask when you leave. social distance.

But stop being draconian or punitive.


MA hockey guidelines - ( New Window )
LOL.  
kicker : 8/14/2020 5:07 pm : link
Faked studies about the inefficacy of HCQ? OK...
.  
arcarsenal : 8/14/2020 5:08 pm : link
It's almost like the doctors and medical people have had to learn as they go and update/change guidelines as they learn more about the virus...

I mean, if you want to live in a way where you are certain you know better based on some hockey guidelines in New Hampshire and just totally abandon all medical advice going forward, I guess that's your prerogative.

Do you not trust a doctor if you're sick otherwise?

I'm not saying to take every medical professionals word as gospel or not expand out a bit and see what people are saying on different ends of the spectrum, but to just get to a point where you say people should just stop listening to science or doctors altogether is pretty dangerous and probably not advisable.

Even if medical professionals have limited knowledge at this stage, ours is even less in the majority of cases. I'm not pompous enough to believe I know more than everyone else does and disregard what they say just because they've made some missteps along the way.
RE: LOL.  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 5:39 pm : link
In comment 14949784 kicker said:
Quote:
Faked studies about the inefficacy of HCQ? OK...


LOL


From statnews
Quote:

Lancet, New England Journal retract Covid-19 studies, including one that raised safety concerns about malaria drugs



From the lancet
Quote:

Retraction—Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis


From the Scientist
Quote:
Disputed Hydroxychloroquine Study Brings Scrutiny to Surgisphere


From the Guardian:
Quote:
.. Surgisphere: governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company


Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies


From Science Mag - linked below
Quote:
Who’s to blame? These three scientists are at the heart of the Surgisphere COVID-19 scandal..



link - ( New Window )
You do realize that there are  
kicker : 8/14/2020 5:43 pm : link
many more than 2 RCT trials with HCQ, right?

With the majority showing that it is ineffective for concommitant use, but the act as a prophylactic is unknown?

Given how shocked you are about this, you would probably be shocked about the volume of retracted studies that occur on an annual basis...
RE: .  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 5:45 pm : link
In comment 14949785 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
It's almost like the doctors and medical people have had to learn as they go and update/change guidelines as they learn more about the virus...

I mean, if you want to live in a way where you are certain you know better based on some hockey guidelines in New Hampshire and just totally abandon all medical advice going forward, I guess that's your prerogative.

Do you not trust a doctor if you're sick otherwise?

I'm not saying to take every medical professionals word as gospel or not expand out a bit and see what people are saying on different ends of the spectrum, but to just get to a point where you say people should just stop listening to science or doctors altogether is pretty dangerous and probably not advisable.

Even if medical professionals have limited knowledge at this stage, ours is even less in the majority of cases. I'm not pompous enough to believe I know more than everyone else does and disregard what they say just because they've made some missteps along the way.


My point is that it's only some medical professionals who are being consulted or only some advice being listened to or amplified.

Fauci recently said if people wear masks and social distance there is no reason we cannot have in person voting. How do you think that message will be received?

As a population it seems like the US is not very smart. media says it, people lap it up.

Nitro is right, and whoever said it is also right, more people think like Nitro than you may think, only most are silent about it.


And perhaps I read it wrong, but what I read  
kicker : 8/14/2020 5:50 pm : link
was that all studies using HCQ are faked, rather than a small subset that had to be retracted, which does not necessarily equal fake.
RE: You do realize that there are  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 5:51 pm : link
In comment 14949807 kicker said:
Quote:
many more than 2 RCT trials with HCQ, right?

With the majority showing that it is ineffective for concommitant use, but the act as a prophylactic is unknown?

Given how shocked you are about this, you would probably be shocked about the volume of retracted studies that occur on an annual basis...


I didn't say every study was faked, I said the one that was faked was amplified and shared massively before even a cursory review let alone a proper peer review. Why do you think that is? It's confirmation bias. That's why.

Yet, you have many (hundreds or more) doctors who support HCQ use and testify as to the efficacy with their patients and they have their information flagged on social media as misleading (though there is no proof of that - despite the doctors backgrounds) and they are even banned from platforms like twitter and facebook simply for their medical opinions.

that was my point.

In fact, not shocked, but the opposite.
No, they were peer reviewed.  
kicker : 8/14/2020 5:57 pm : link
You can quibble about the effectiveness of the peer review, but outside experts noticed some potential issues that they highlighted and brought to the attention of the journal. That is quite frequent in academic literature.

So, let's say that you are correct, and it's 100% a fake on the part of the two studies. Observational data on the part of "hundreds" of doctors has not been verified either (and some of these doctors have been found to be in settings where it's not likely that they saw COVID-positive patients). And academic retraction is much more damning than your favorite social media platform deleting posts.

And, given that the burden is on objective analysis of the null hypothesis, which is that HCQ is not effective, we shouldn't instantly adopt the alternative.
RE: You do realize that there are  
rnargi : 8/14/2020 5:59 pm : link
In comment 14949807 kicker said:
Quote:
many more than 2 RCT trials with HCQ, right?

With the majority showing that it is ineffective for concommitant use, but the act as a prophylactic is unknown?

Given how shocked you are about this, you would probably be shocked about the volume of retracted studies that occur on an annual basis...


Can you link to several? I'm interested in educating myself
And, by the way, who do you think gains more notoriety?  
kicker : 8/14/2020 6:00 pm : link
The authors that have a large-scale RCT that finds that HCQ is effective in a worldwide pandemic, or studies that find that there is no evidence to move on from the null.

You won't be considered for a Nobel for the latter in science; the former, you may very well be...
RE: No, they were peer reviewed.  
pjcas18 : 8/14/2020 6:00 pm : link
In comment 14949818 kicker said:
Quote:
You can quibble about the effectiveness of the peer review, but outside experts noticed some potential issues that they highlighted and brought to the attention of the journal. That is quite frequent in academic literature.

So, let's say that you are correct, and it's 100% a fake on the part of the two studies. Observational data on the part of "hundreds" of doctors has not been verified either (and some of these doctors have been found to be in settings where it's not likely that they saw COVID-positive patients). And academic retraction is much more damning than your favorite social media platform deleting posts.

And, given that the burden is on objective analysis of the null hypothesis, which is that HCQ is not effective, we shouldn't instantly adopt the alternative.


Of course not and that's not my point.

If there was a study that came out and said HCQ with z-pack and zinc proves effective do you think before being shared it would garner a massive amount of scrutiny?

If, you agree, that yes it would, then why don't you think this surgisphere study warranted the same level of scrutiny before esteemed publications like the lancet and NEJM shared it?
...  
kicker : 8/14/2020 6:04 pm : link
Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19

(That's prophylactic).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2765499

(Stopped after some potential nasty side effects from high doses of HCQ, but limited sample (81) saw no benefits).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7351664/

(Synthesis of literature saw that a lot of studies had a lot of potential statistical bias. With those with the lowest potential bias, evidence suggested a lack of effectiveness).
RE: RE: No, they were peer reviewed.  
kicker : 8/14/2020 6:08 pm : link
In comment 14949821 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14949818 kicker said:


Quote:


You can quibble about the effectiveness of the peer review, but outside experts noticed some potential issues that they highlighted and brought to the attention of the journal. That is quite frequent in academic literature.

So, let's say that you are correct, and it's 100% a fake on the part of the two studies. Observational data on the part of "hundreds" of doctors has not been verified either (and some of these doctors have been found to be in settings where it's not likely that they saw COVID-positive patients). And academic retraction is much more damning than your favorite social media platform deleting posts.

And, given that the burden is on objective analysis of the null hypothesis, which is that HCQ is not effective, we shouldn't instantly adopt the alternative.



Of course not and that's not my point.

If there was a study that came out and said HCQ with z-pack and zinc proves effective do you think before being shared it would garner a massive amount of scrutiny?

If, you agree, that yes it would, then why don't you think this surgisphere study warranted the same level of scrutiny before esteemed publications like the lancet and NEJM shared it?


It would go through the exact same process.

But given that there is typically a higher burden IN EVERY STUDY when findings reveal a potential rejection of the null hypothesis, it would face similar scrutiny that any other paper would face, if it found an effective drug for a large-scale illness.

Positive findings require much more scrutiny, and for a good reason. That's not biased against HCQ; it's how science has always worked.
HCQ  
Lines of Scrimmage : 8/14/2020 6:10 pm : link
Some people on this site spoke of it positively in actual cases. I have just heard different doctors on TV and some of the gov't people. Not sure how accurate most of the data is from other countries. Be interesting to see if it could be tracked somehow.

Part of me feels there may be some follow the money at play but I am someone who thinks we have lots of corruption in government.

Kicker thanks for that economic data. Like to hear your thoughts on the impact all these businesses going out will have on the financial system. In my city, it seems like 50% of the businesses on the street won't make it.
Kicker  
fireitup77 : 8/14/2020 6:10 pm : link
as you are much more educated on this than I am can you please let me know what is wrong with the Henry Ford Health Systems study link below.
Link - ( New Window )
What is the opinion  
XBRONX : 8/14/2020 6:16 pm : link
of eminently qualified radiologist? LOL
RE: Kicker  
kicker : 8/14/2020 6:24 pm : link
In comment 14949827 fireitup77 said:
Quote:
as you are much more educated on this than I am can you please let me know what is wrong with the Henry Ford Health Systems study link below. Link - ( New Window )


It's not unique to most of the research being conducted on COVID right now, but it's an retrospective (after-the-fact) study. Means you know the outcomes before you do the study. Could bias the study.

They have no description of how they assigned patients to the groups, except that those who were COVID sicker got HCQ and an antibiotic. It could be that it works. It could be that those with higher secondary risk factors were not prescribed HCQ. We don't know.

It states that HCQ was not used except in people with "minimal cardiac factors". So, could be that death rates in the "placebo" group are higher because they had bad tickers. Especially if COVID has more severe impacts on the heart than we though in March, April, and May.

The distribution of groups. Typically, randomization will lead to roughly equal groups (not always). 16% of the study received nothing. 78% got HCQ (maybe antibiotics). Smaller groups can have higher variance in outcomes.

There are some other statistical things that you could quibble over (the models they chose to analyze), but that would be more of a restrospective analysis on my end, if they provided the data.

I don't think it's per se a bad study. But at this point, there's nothing causal here. They haven't randomized, they excluded from the treatment those with serious heart issues. They are doing a further, RCT study on this, likely because they realized their deficiencies.
RE: HCQ  
kicker : 8/14/2020 6:26 pm : link
In comment 14949826 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
Some people on this site spoke of it positively in actual cases. I have just heard different doctors on TV and some of the gov't people. Not sure how accurate most of the data is from other countries. Be interesting to see if it could be tracked somehow.

Part of me feels there may be some follow the money at play but I am someone who thinks we have lots of corruption in government.

Kicker thanks for that economic data. Like to hear your thoughts on the impact all these businesses going out will have on the financial system. In my city, it seems like 50% of the businesses on the street won't make it.


Restaurants are going to be a huge hit. Their profit margins hover around 5-6% at full capacity. With the takeout model (or restricted occupancy), there's going to be a lot of wiping out of small, non-chain restaurants. And they employ a disproportionate impact of people.

And given the potential flight back to suburbia, a lot of the reurbanization trends could be halted pretty quickly.

At this point, I see a lot of potential for defaults and bankruptcies, with pretty significant potential for urban blight if people are wary about going back to shopping.
FWIW  
trueblueinpw : 8/14/2020 7:18 pm : link
Sam Harris just dropped a podcast about covid and response and what we know at this point about the disease. His guest is Siddhartha Mukherjee who’s an oncology doctor and researcher. Of course Harris is a neuroscientist so they aren’t infectious disease experts, but it’s a very interesting conversation grounded in science and reason.
RE: RE: RE: .  
MetsAreBack : 8/14/2020 8:37 pm : link
In comment 14949702 Mad Mike said:
Quote:
In comment 14949697 Nitro said:


Quote:


Sweden never lockdown - where's the smoke from their massive funeral pyres?


Sweden has one of the highest per-capita rates of COVID deaths in the world. Higher than the U.S., higher than France, an order of magnitude higher than their Scandinavian neighbors. I think only Spain and Italy have had a higher rate*, so there's quite a bit of smoke there.

*With the caveat that I think most of us distrust the figures from China and Russia, and NK hasn't even released data.


Italy Spain and UK are all higher... it’s like criticizing a team losing 2-0 in the 4th inning, this is something that won’t be Clear as far as best strategies for 2-3 years ... and deaths per 1mm pop is just one metric. If a country is more dense than another, if grandparents live with young families which coming into this made a lot of practical and moral sense .. those kinds of Things unfortunately drive higher death counts.

Nitro has a lovable posting style lol but is making a lot of sense some of the embellishments aside
RE: RE: Kicker  
fireitup77 : 8/14/2020 9:17 pm : link
In comment 14949833 kicker said:
Quote:
In comment 14949827 fireitup77 said:


Quote:


as you are much more educated on this than I am can you please let me know what is wrong with the Henry Ford Health Systems study link below. Link - ( New Window )



It's not unique to most of the research being conducted on COVID right now, but it's an retrospective (after-the-fact) study. Means you know the outcomes before you do the study. Could bias the study.

They have no description of how they assigned patients to the groups, except that those who were COVID sicker got HCQ and an antibiotic. It could be that it works. It could be that those with higher secondary risk factors were not prescribed HCQ. We don't know.

It states that HCQ was not used except in people with "minimal cardiac factors". So, could be that death rates in the "placebo" group are higher because they had bad tickers. Especially if COVID has more severe impacts on the heart than we though in March, April, and May.

The distribution of groups. Typically, randomization will lead to roughly equal groups (not always). 16% of the study received nothing. 78% got HCQ (maybe antibiotics). Smaller groups can have higher variance in outcomes.

There are some other statistical things that you could quibble over (the models they chose to analyze), but that would be more of a restrospective analysis on my end, if they provided the data.

I don't think it's per se a bad study. But at this point, there's nothing causal here. They haven't randomized, they excluded from the treatment those with serious heart issues. They are doing a further, RCT study on this, likely because they realized their deficiencies.



Thanks.

Now please tell me why the linked study was used widely to discredit the use of the drug?

Was the science so much better?
Link - ( New Window )
Well.  
kicker : 8/14/2020 9:55 pm : link
1. There are other studies out there that support that finding that are better.

2. All the first study found was a correlation. The authors even articulated this point in the last (or second to last) sentence in their paper. They "may" have found something, but need an RCT. Or, in other words, they have found an association, but is it spurious or causal?

And therein lies the rub. You have one finding with a null result (HCQ doesn't help). That is the baseline; no change in activity. You need much stronger evidence to reject the null; namely, causality. They went halfway there in the first study; but because of how they set it up, they have no statistical evidence that HCQ helped to cure COVID. So, they acknowledge they need to follow it up with a proper study to assess the relationship they have found.

All the null needs is a relationship, not a causation.
RE: RE: RE: RE: .  
Mad Mike : 8/14/2020 10:04 pm : link
In comment 14949883 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:

Italy Spain and UK are all higher... it’s like criticizing a team losing 2-0 in the 4th inning, this is something that won’t be Clear as far as best strategies for 2-3 years ... and deaths per 1mm pop is just one metric. If a country is more dense than another, if grandparents live with young families which coming into this made a lot of practical and moral sense .. those kinds of Things unfortunately drive higher death counts.

The data I've seen shows the UK lower, but whatever, there are a lot of sources which don't all agree. You think the data tells an incomplete story, which is probably at least somewhat right, but you sure seem to cite data a lot when you think it supports the point you're trying to make, which I guess seems a little odd.
And if I'm critiquing that paper, it has issues with the  
kicker : 8/14/2020 10:06 pm : link
fact that the study is not representative of the general population as a whole (same issue with the 1st paper), it eliminates the "bias" of who gets the drugs based on input from the researchers (though the inclusion criteria seem a bit weak), and it seems as if the no HCQ sample is a bit high (though if you compare raw numbers to HCQ + HCQ & Antibiotic, the numbers are comparable). And it's retrospective, which is another knock.

Where it is slightly better than the former study is it focuses on more outcomes than "death".
.  
arcarsenal : 8/14/2020 11:05 pm : link
Nitro...

I'm not going to spend time breaking apart every paragraph and responding one by one - we'll do this all weekend if I start responding that way.

The most revealing part to me was where you admitted that you had the virus, it wasn't that bad for you, and you fully recovered.

No wonder you feel the way you feel!

Not only was your own experience mild, reinforcing the idea that this isn't anywhere near the big deal it's being made out to be globally, but now you're also carrying antibodies and are at extremely low/no risk of reinfection.

So, no shit you want everything to open back up. Because like I said, it suits you personally. What do you have to lose? Essentially nothing. You're almost certainly not going to get sick again. What's the risk for you? Mostly nil.

It doesn't suit the person who is immunocompromised. Doesn't suit the elderly. And doesn't suit demographics that have been deemed to be at significantly higher risk than others.

This is why I tried to make the point that your perspective isn't likely to be someone else's and that you can't box it in and look at it from your viewpoint only. I mean, you can - but it's short-sighted and quite frankly, selfish.

Freddie Freeman thought this was going to kill him. He had a fever near 105 - he's a 30 year old professional baseball player who is in good shape by all accounts.

His reaction to this is going to be significantly different than yours. Heck, forget assuming, here's what he said himself...

Quote:
Saturday afternoon, Freeman detailed to reporters his harrowing experience with the virus. He originally tested negative in early July but began feeling sick on July 2. On the night of July 3, his fever jumped to 104.5 degrees, and he nearly went to the hospital.

"That was the scariest night for me," Freeman said. "I spiked to 104.5 fever. So thankfully ... two minutes after that, I gunned my forehead again, I was 103.8, I was 103.2 then 103.6. I was like, 'If I go above 104 again, I'll probably just start ringing the phone, try to figure this out.'

"But I said a little prayer that night, cause I've never been that hot before. My body was really, really hot so I said, 'Please don't take me.' I wasn't ready."


He wasn't even sure he was going to survive. This is a 30 year old pro athlete. He's urged people to take it seriously since dealing with it himself.

This hits everyone differently, people have significantly different susceptibility levels and there's simply just a ridiculous amount of information we still don't have.

I'm not one of the people who take everything Fauci says as gospel - but I am fairly certain I'd be better off generally following his recommendations as opposed to winging it or pretending I know better than he does. I don't.

Anyway, I just took exception to the notion that people want to lock everything down forever because I see frustrated people throw out that hyperbolic argument over and over again and it's just silly. No one wants that.

Also the suggestion that we should just open everything immediately and throw caution completely to the wind. I think that would be an enormously risky proposition that could have severe consequences if it overlaps with flu season and a 2nd wave. I am all for progressively continuing reopening phases. It's been going fine in New York where I live for the most part. I just don't think we need to blow through the rest of the speedbumps and risk erasing so much of the progress that was made.

If you don't agree, that's fine. No need to go around in circles about it. We can leave it at that.
RE: .  
Eric on Li : 8/14/2020 11:21 pm : link
In comment 14949996 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Anyway, I just took exception to the notion that people want to lock everything down forever because I see frustrated people throw out that hyperbolic argument over and over again and it's just silly. No one wants that.


Man, would you have enjoyed this place in March + April.
Compare the Flu Pandemic of 1918 and COVID-19 With Caution  
Geomon : 8/14/2020 11:37 pm : link
Good read
Compare the Flu Pandemic of 1918 and COVID-19 With Caution - ( New Window )
...  
christian : 8/15/2020 12:26 am : link
Nitro — what are exactly the things you cannot do that you would like to do?
RE: ...  
giants#1 : 8/15/2020 7:47 am : link
In comment 14950012 christian said:
Quote:
Nitro — what are exactly the things you cannot do that you would like to do?


Get laid?











Wait, you meant due to COVID...
Nitro  
XBRONX : 8/15/2020 8:08 am : link
a perfect example of you know what.
RE: Nitro  
Big Al : 8/15/2020 8:49 am : link
In comment 14950036 XBRONX said:
Quote:
a perfect example of you know what.
Being as stupid as I am, I don’t know what and I bet many others do not? Would you care to explain that cryptic comment to the stupid and ignorant or are you too much of a coward to actually say what you mean and just instigate which is your style?
Well didn't this thing go sideways thanks to a few morons  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 9:24 am : link
and the usual politics as usual finger pointers.

Thanks, Geomon, that Smithsonian article was a good read and certainly spelled out a couple of things quite clearly, dispelling myths.

1) Covid-19 is NOTHING LIKE a flu virus so far as mutability is concerned.

Of course at least one post above claimed it is very mutable (wrong!) So that's very good news re producing a stable vaccine.

2) At least partly due to that rather lack of mutability, but also due specific war related factors that helped propel the spread of infections of the great Flu of 1918-1919, we are unlikely to see the pattern of "waves" of outbreaks.

Obviously, that hasn't prevented scores of folks from speaking about Covid-19 in "waves" from media pundits to medical experts!

It's nice to read a solid piece penned jointly by a virologist and historian, both out of Pittsburgh, one of the institutions at the forefront of the medical battle.

Lastly, a couple of people offered snarky replies to the OP regarding "how medicine has advanced over the past 100 years."

Hubris, fellas, doesn't fight viruses. We will get a vaccine to this bad boy, maybe several, but so far the biggest weapons in our toolbox against this nasty little bug are masks and social distancing.

THE SAME NON-PHARMACEUTICAL TECHNIQUES WE USED TO LIMIT THE SPANISH FLU EPIDEMIC 100 YEARS AGO.

Arrogance is useless then, now, and always. (Although perhaps I prolly shouldn't be the guy to point this out.)
...  
christian : 8/15/2020 9:57 am : link
Avoidance and immunity have and likely always will be how to prevent getting sick from communicable diseases.

But the notion we are employing the same medical approach from a hundred years ago ignores the advances in oxygen therapy, intubation, therapeutics, testing, early treatment, and up to recently pretty good medical data sharing — that has unequivocally saved lives and slowed this disease.
Christian most of the modern advances you mentioned have limited  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 10:05 am : link
the mortality rate, but not so much the transmission rate, which was and is the subject of the OP.

Obviously entire countries have gone much, much further in the use of some of these technologies than the US has.

The US, where the use of masks was and is still hotly debated.

The NFL and other sports leagues are taking the tracing thing to a different level, obviously.
Big Al  
XBRONX : 8/15/2020 10:10 am : link
better know as Big ahole. You know what gets you banned, but you would have to have a brain to figure that out.
Sorry I fell asleep last night  
fireitup77 : 8/15/2020 10:12 am : link
my point is that both studies basically where done in a similar way. One found that HCQ doesn't work. It was reported on by most of the media to show that the President is an idiot. The second one was basically ignored by most of the media.

I think it was PJ that said earlier. Follow the science that proves what you believe.
I don’t care what the media reports.  
kicker : 8/15/2020 10:17 am : link
The modes of analysis can both be bad (retrospective) with samples that don’t match the general population.

In science, you have to disprove the null hypothesis (“reject”). The same burden is not required for “proving” the null.

So, if you want HCQ to be recommended, that’s what you need to “prove”. And that threshold obviously has not been close to being met.
By that I mean the media  
kicker : 8/15/2020 10:20 am : link
is as scientifically illiterate as the general population.

If your doctor wants to recommend HCQ, more power to them. But, there is no evidence to suggest HCQ causes reductions in negative COVID outcomes, so it’s no better than a placebo on average. There could also be negative side effects, and it has caused some shortages for people who need it.

The only correct statement is that HCQ has not been proven to be any more effective (on average) than eating a sugar pill.
Lou - as if divine, I happened to see an answer to your exact OP ?  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2020 10:22 am : link
This fellow is an award winning research dr. at the Mayo clinic and the editor in chief of the Blood Cancer Journal. And if you click the link he has follow up tweets explaining each of the 4 possible reasons with the data currently available from various research studies.

Quote:
Vincent Rajkumar
@VincentRK
There are at least 4 possible reasons why some people with COVID have little or no symptoms.

1) A rapid immune response that conquers the virus
2) Pre-existing cross reactive immunity
3) Genetic factors
4) Low viral load at time of infection

We have emerging data for each.

https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1294404193294442502 - ( New Window )
RE: By that I mean the media  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2020 10:23 am : link
In comment 14950069 kicker said:
Quote:
is as scientifically illiterate as the general population.

If your doctor wants to recommend HCQ, more power to them. But, there is no evidence to suggest HCQ causes reductions in negative COVID outcomes, so it’s no better than a placebo on average. There could also be negative side effects, and it has caused some shortages for people who need it.

The only correct statement is that HCQ has not been proven to be any more effective (on average) than eating a sugar pill.


It has also been shown to have potentially dangerous side effects correct?
RE: Big Al  
Big Al : 8/15/2020 10:24 am : link
In comment 14950064 XBRONX said:
Quote:
better know as Big ahole. You know what gets you banned, but you would have to have a brain to figure that out.
Actually pretty clear what you do. Cloak your political comments in obscure ways and watch others take the bait and watch the chaos and sometimes others get banned because of you. You are really a cowardly miserable piece of shit. Not sure how many others have noticed. I also see your total heartlessness in your football comments toward players who are just trying to make a living. What I hate most on here is mean spirited people and you are currently the worst one of those currently posting. I really hope you are better than that in real life.
RE: Christian most of the modern advances you mentioned have limited  
christian : 8/15/2020 10:25 am : link
In comment 14950063 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
the mortality rate, but not so much the transmission rate, which was and is the subject of the OP.


It’s pretty clear testing, data sharing, early detection, and the availability of viable treatment (and not just sitting home waiting to die and having to be cared for by your vulnerable family) — are all orders of magnitude better in 2020 than 1918 and cutting down on transmission.
Yeah. I think I mentioned that. Some studies, IIRC,  
kicker : 8/15/2020 10:26 am : link
either avoided given HCQ to patients with bad tickers, or didn’t find evidence that there were any additional heart abnormalities.

Given we now know COVID can attack the heart, I’d be even warier if taking it.
RE: RE: Big Al  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2020 10:58 am : link
In comment 14950075 Big Al said:
Quote:
In comment 14950064 XBRONX said:


Quote:


better know as Big ahole. You know what gets you banned, but you would have to have a brain to figure that out.

Actually pretty clear what you do. Cloak your political comments in obscure ways and watch others take the bait and watch the chaos and sometimes others get banned because of you. You are really a cowardly miserable piece of shit. Not sure how many others have noticed. I also see your total heartlessness in your football comments toward players who are just trying to make a living. What I hate most on here is mean spirited people and you are currently the worst one of those currently posting. I really hope you are better than that in real life.


everyone notices, most people ignore.
Marist Poll: 35% will not get vaccinated when vaccine is available  
Jim in Fairfax : 8/15/2020 11:15 am : link
Troubling number when you consider that vaccine efficacy is expected to be in the 50-75% range. Unless nearly everyone gets vaccinated we won’t achieve herd immunity and a return to normalcy. A major public education campaign is needed.
RE: Marist Poll: 35% will not get vaccinated when vaccine is available  
nygiants16 : 8/15/2020 11:30 am : link
In comment 14950100 Jim in Fairfax said:
Quote:
Troubling number when you consider that vaccine efficacy is expected to be in the 50-75% range. Unless nearly everyone gets vaccinated we won’t achieve herd immunity and a return to normalcy. A major public education campaign is needed.


A lot of people want to know it is safe before they take it, i am not anti vacc, but my kids will not get it until i know it is safe, sorry not sorry...

People feel like it is being rushed and you cant blame them..
RE: Marist Poll: 35% will not get vaccinated when vaccine is available  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/15/2020 11:35 am : link
In comment 14950100 Jim in Fairfax said:
Quote:
Troubling number when you consider that vaccine efficacy is expected to be in the 50-75% range. Unless nearly everyone gets vaccinated we won’t achieve herd immunity and a return to normalcy. A major public education campaign is needed.


I certainly am not going to be taking a brand new vaccine that is probably getting rushed to market and I'm not some anti-vaxx nutter. To me, the risk isn't worth it. I think everyone needs evaluate their own health situation and make their own decision on this one.
RE: RE: RE: Big Al  
BigBlueShock : 8/15/2020 11:37 am : link
In comment 14950092 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14950075 Big Al said:


Quote:


In comment 14950064 XBRONX said:


Quote:


better know as Big ahole. You know what gets you banned, but you would have to have a brain to figure that out.

Actually pretty clear what you do. Cloak your political comments in obscure ways and watch others take the bait and watch the chaos and sometimes others get banned because of you. You are really a cowardly miserable piece of shit. Not sure how many others have noticed. I also see your total heartlessness in your football comments toward players who are just trying to make a living. What I hate most on here is mean spirited people and you are currently the worst one of those currently posting. I really hope you are better than that in real life.



everyone notices, most people ignore.

Exactly. I’m sure everyone here knows what XBRONX is all about. The clown is a disaster that is better off being ignored.
RE: Marist Poll: 35% will not get vaccinated when vaccine is available  
KDavies : 8/15/2020 11:49 am : link
In comment 14950100 Jim in Fairfax said:
Quote:
Troubling number when you consider that vaccine efficacy is expected to be in the 50-75% range. Unless nearly everyone gets vaccinated we won’t achieve herd immunity and a return to normalcy. A major public education campaign is needed.


Yeah, people are not properly educated (indoctrinated) to take a new vaccine. I’m not getting a new vaccine and neither are the majority of people I talk to either. They are all educated and informed. They are well aware of countless drugs, etc. that have been pushed as safe by the government and corporations with a financial interest, only to later determine that they have serious side effects. Sorry, but I’ll let others be the guinea pig’s first.
RE: RE: Marist Poll: 35% will not get vaccinated when vaccine is available  
KDavies : 8/15/2020 11:52 am : link
In comment 14950110 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14950100 Jim in Fairfax said:


Quote:


Troubling number when you consider that vaccine efficacy is expected to be in the 50-75% range. Unless nearly everyone gets vaccinated we won’t achieve herd immunity and a return to normalcy. A major public education campaign is needed.



I certainly am not going to be taking a brand new vaccine that is probably getting rushed to market and I'm not some anti-vaxx nutter. To me, the risk isn't worth it. I think everyone needs evaluate their own health situation and make their own decision on this one.


Bingo. I was in the Army and have every vaccine and shot known to man. My children are vaccinated. I am not an anti-vaxxer. But also concerned about a rushed vaccine
RE: Marist Poll: 35% will not get vaccinated when vaccine is available  
Bill L : 8/15/2020 12:07 pm : link
In comment 14950100 Jim in Fairfax said:
Quote:
Troubling number when you consider that vaccine efficacy is expected to be in the 50-75% range. Unless nearly everyone gets vaccinated we won’t achieve herd immunity and a return to normalcy. A major public education campaign is needed.

How can people predict an efficacy rate when there are numerous different vaccine candidates, none of them having any efficacy data yet, and the parameters of infection still poorly understood?
Gidie...an obscure COVID question for you  
Bill L : 8/15/2020 12:09 pm : link
Based on a story in today’s local paper....

How can a town make a plea for help from the courts and the mayor be the lawyer for the opposing side?
Set of Useful Current Scientific Articles  
Percy : 8/15/2020 12:21 pm : link
Of a general nature, but to me very informative:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02335-z?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20200813&utm_source=nature_etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20200813&sap-outbound-id=8240501891EEAFBFB3E4F025A1D63D9913E190F3 . Click and read all of them. Stop listening to BS about it.
What would be the rational of all the Medic and Scientific experts  
montanagiant : 8/15/2020 12:23 pm : link
That shootdown HCQ if there were a provable basis that it works?

Why would they halt trials of it due to risks involved with taking it if it works?

Spare me the "Pharmaceutical companies are greedy" because that doesn't fly logically



RE: RE: RE: RE: Big Al  
montanagiant : 8/15/2020 12:26 pm : link
In comment 14950111 BigBlueShock said:
Quote:
In comment 14950092 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14950075 Big Al said:


Quote:


In comment 14950064 XBRONX said:


Quote:


better know as Big ahole. You know what gets you banned, but you would have to have a brain to figure that out.

Actually pretty clear what you do. Cloak your political comments in obscure ways and watch others take the bait and watch the chaos and sometimes others get banned because of you. You are really a cowardly miserable piece of shit. Not sure how many others have noticed. I also see your total heartlessness in your football comments toward players who are just trying to make a living. What I hate most on here is mean spirited people and you are currently the worst one of those currently posting. I really hope you are better than that in real life.



everyone notices, most people ignore.


Exactly. I’m sure everyone here knows what XBRONX is all about. The clown is a disaster that is better off being ignored.

Why is XBRONX being singled out when you have similar stupid shit being posted by Nitro?
RE: RE: Marist Poll: 35% will not get vaccinated when vaccine is available  
Jim in Fairfax : 8/15/2020 12:30 pm : link
In comment 14950123 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 14950100 Jim in Fairfax said:


Quote:


Troubling number when you consider that vaccine efficacy is expected to be in the 50-75% range. Unless nearly everyone gets vaccinated we won’t achieve herd immunity and a return to normalcy. A major public education campaign is needed.


How can people predict an efficacy rate when there are numerous different vaccine candidates, none of them having any efficacy data yet, and the parameters of infection still poorly understood?

Fauci and others with insight on the preliminary data from the various projects have said this the range they are expecting.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Big Al  
BigBlueShock : 8/15/2020 1:11 pm : link
In comment 14950134 montanagiant said:
Quote:
In comment 14950111 BigBlueShock said:


Quote:


In comment 14950092 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 14950075 Big Al said:


Quote:


In comment 14950064 XBRONX said:


Quote:


better know as Big ahole. You know what gets you banned, but you would have to have a brain to figure that out.

Actually pretty clear what you do. Cloak your political comments in obscure ways and watch others take the bait and watch the chaos and sometimes others get banned because of you. You are really a cowardly miserable piece of shit. Not sure how many others have noticed. I also see your total heartlessness in your football comments toward players who are just trying to make a living. What I hate most on here is mean spirited people and you are currently the worst one of those currently posting. I really hope you are better than that in real life.



everyone notices, most people ignore.


Exactly. I’m sure everyone here knows what XBRONX is all about. The clown is a disaster that is better off being ignored.


Why is XBRONX being singled out when you have similar stupid shit being posted by Nitro?

You’re right. Nitro is a disaster too.But the difference is I don’t see Nitro on 6 Million threads spreading his bullshit. He also come right out and says what he thinks. XBRONX thinks he’s being sly by continuously dropping one liners and leaving. Both suck. But only one is a coward.
nba and nbpa with yale univrrsity  
nygiants16 : 8/15/2020 1:13 pm : link
have created a saliva rapid test, 90% accuracy, 99% if taken twice...

Will be available for public, 10 dollars a person and could add millions of tests, plus make sports a lot safer to compete..
Nitro  
Bill2 : 8/15/2020 1:19 pm : link
your analysis does not seem to take into account the bottlenecks and misallocations in the healthcare products, facilities and workers.

Nor the transmission of learnings through their largely verbal transmission through disconnected bureaucracies.

Many of the policies advocated are generated upwards to relieve pressure on a bottlenecks Nd misallocated delivery system and peak load supply constraints

Just another set of factors to consider when commenting on individual constraints vs community well being
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Big Al  
montanagiant : 8/15/2020 1:21 pm : link
In comment 14950153 BigBlueShock said:
Quote:
In comment 14950134 montanagiant said:


Quote:




Why is XBRONX being singled out when you have similar stupid shit being posted by Nitro?


You’re right. Nitro is a disaster too.But the difference is I don’t see Nitro on 6 Million threads spreading his bullshit. He also come right out and says what he thinks. XBRONX thinks he’s being sly by continuously dropping one liners and leaving. Both suck. But only one is a coward.

Fair enough BBS, I see your point
Going back to BLB’s original question ....  
Jim from Katonah : 8/15/2020 2:11 pm : link
... my daughter is a freshman at UNC. UNC administrators have done everything right over the past few months in preparation for the start of classes on August 10 — dorms at 50% capacity, deep cleanings, maybe 90% online only classes, mask requirements, student pledge agreements, excellent science-based communication with students and parents.

Just one week in, Covid is ripping through the dorms. Her roommate is already in quarantine and there are clusters of students in her dorm who have already tested positive.

I don’t know whether any student is suffering anything other than mild symptoms, but it seems amazingly infectious to me. I don’t know what the answer is — I vacillate between well, if the kids are asymptomatic then we should press on (because there seems to be no end in sight, with the vaccines likely not a magic bullet) or whether we should just move to a new paradigm of online life. But I gotta tell you, if it doesn’t work in a non-scofflaw wear-your-mask peer pressure culture at UNC, I can’t see it working in any non-bubble group setting (if the threshold for failure includes asymptomatic positives). Oyy.

RE: Going back to BLB’s original question ....  
nygiants16 : 8/15/2020 2:22 pm : link
In comment 14950170 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
... my daughter is a freshman at UNC. UNC administrators have done everything right over the past few months in preparation for the start of classes on August 10 — dorms at 50% capacity, deep cleanings, maybe 90% online only classes, mask requirements, student pledge agreements, excellent science-based communication with students and parents.

Just one week in, Covid is ripping through the dorms. Her roommate is already in quarantine and there are clusters of students in her dorm who have already tested positive.

I don’t know whether any student is suffering anything other than mild symptoms, but it seems amazingly infectious to me. I don’t know what the answer is — I vacillate between well, if the kids are asymptomatic then we should press on (because there seems to be no end in sight, with the vaccines likely not a magic bullet) or whether we should just move to a new paradigm of online life. But I gotta tell you, if it doesn’t work in a non-scofflaw wear-your-mask peer pressure culture at UNC, I can’t see it working in any non-bubble group setting (if the threshold for failure includes asymptomatic positives). Oyy.


The only way to prevent spread is testing, you can clean, go half capacity all you want, 1 person brings it in then all that is for nothing..

Now if that person was tested and we know that person has it they can be qiarantined before anyone else comes in contact eith that person..

Rapid testing is key
About how some people are immune to it  
montanagiant : 8/15/2020 2:23 pm : link
Been tested 3 times and Negative each time despite many flights and visiting accounts. Wife owns a restaurant and has been tested twice, Negative each time. My Son has an apt with 3 buddies down at his college area. All 3 roommates tested positive with symptoms over a month period while he was still there, he's had 2 tests all Negative. Daughter was recalled from Macedonia by the Peace Corps, she has 3 friends that she hung out with that tested positive, she's had 3 tests all Negative.

We also could have been extremely lucky but the one that sticks out is my son since he was there when all 3 caught it.
RE: About how some people are immune to it  
Milton : 8/15/2020 2:26 pm : link
In comment 14950174 montanagiant said:
Quote:
Been tested 3 times and Negative each time despite many flights and visiting accounts. Wife owns a restaurant and has been tested twice, Negative each time. My Son has an apt with 3 buddies down at his college area. All 3 roommates tested positive with symptoms over a month period while he was still there, he's had 2 tests all Negative. Daughter was recalled from Macedonia by the Peace Corps, she has 3 friends that she hung out with that tested positive, she's had 3 tests all Negative.

We also could have been extremely lucky but the one that sticks out is my son since he was there when all 3 caught it.
Are you all blood type O?
RE: RE: Going back to BLB’s original question ....  
Jim from Katonah : 8/15/2020 2:36 pm : link
In comment 14950172 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14950170 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


... my daughter is a freshman at UNC. UNC administrators have done everything right over the past few months in preparation for the start of classes on August 10 — dorms at 50% capacity, deep cleanings, maybe 90% online only classes, mask requirements, student pledge agreements, excellent science-based communication with students and parents.

Just one week in, Covid is ripping through the dorms. Her roommate is already in quarantine and there are clusters of students in her dorm who have already tested positive.

I don’t know whether any student is suffering anything other than mild symptoms, but it seems amazingly infectious to me. I don’t know what the answer is — I vacillate between well, if the kids are asymptomatic then we should press on (because there seems to be no end in sight, with the vaccines likely not a magic bullet) or whether we should just move to a new paradigm of online life. But I gotta tell you, if it doesn’t work in a non-scofflaw wear-your-mask peer pressure culture at UNC, I can’t see it working in any non-bubble group setting (if the threshold for failure includes asymptomatic positives). Oyy.




The only way to prevent spread is testing, you can clean, go half capacity all you want, 1 person brings it in then all that is for nothing..

Now if that person was tested and we know that person has it they can be qiarantined before anyone else comes in contact eith that person..

Rapid testing is key


I left out an important fact ... despite pretty strict enforcement (they have already kicked several kids out of student housing b/c of failure to follow guidelines) and peer pressure, the boys in the suite next door were bragging about going to a 200 person off-campus party. Oh humans.
RE: Great to see the shut down forever crew back together again  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 8/15/2020 2:42 pm : link
In comment 14949675 Nitro said:
Quote:
This hysteria needs to end. The cost continues to stagger. Open everything today. CDC: One quarter of young adults contemplated suicide during pandemic - ( New Window )


The uptick in suicidal thoughts during the pandemic was definitely something a lot of us expected unfortunately. But there are a ton of factors related to COVID as to why those thoughts occur. Sure a lot of it is shutdown related with people worrying about jobs and the lack of social interaction. I'm really interested in seeing the studies done about how the lockdown affected certain aspects of social life/work productivity/physical and mental health/etc.

But re-opening everything back up and then having this thing blow up again is just going to cause even more negative feelings if we just have to do this all over again. I'm all for re-opening at this point, but it needs to be slow and shrewdly done not just an "everything's back to normal!" styled announcement and celebration.
Eric on Li - thanks for that link.  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 2:51 pm : link
Haven't got to it yet but will soon and it certainly appears from the quoted synopsis to be on point.

Also Eric, thanks in general for tons of great posts on sports threads and others. Your thoughtful input is appreciated everywhere.

Percy, thanks also.will get to it and appreciate the link(s)...

Jim in Katonah (you're a great poster in gen'l) your daughter's UNC experience you describe is fascinating, and it goes EXACTLY opposite what I tend to grasp at for the reason for my own avoidance (to date! Knock wood!) of the virus despite undobtedly repeated exposure.

I'm not doubting your veracity, or your daughter's really, but if the UNC academic year began only a few days ago on August 10th, how is it possible there are outbreaks running rampant across campus?

The story as told makes no sense to me, unless I missed something or part of it?

Another thought on that spread is the counterproductive nature perhaps of putting several strategies into effect that might, even just accidentally, be at cross purposes with one another?

If 90% of the classes or classwork are to be given and completed on-line, why are students going to the campus and living in dorms in the first place? Why didn't most of them receive instructions or suggestions to stay at home and study 100% virtually?

Or if the kids are coming to school at the campus, why then keep them cooped up.at computer terminals studying virtually? Once there, pop on a mask, and go to class so long as everyone aims to maintain social distancing? Spending extended times in confined spaces seems like a big no-go from our nursing home experience, no?

Maybe students should have been asked to attend classes, but each one temperature screened and briefly questioned about symptoms at the entrance to each class?

I'm honestly not trying to be goofy or obtuse...

I also think there's an inherent foible with the student population, and all the moreso for these kids being, as Garrison Keillor would attest, "Well Above Average", that THEY KNOW that even if they contract the virus, the odds are it won't affect them overly much.

I'm having the worst time reigning in my 18 year old daughter, or so it seems.
RE: RE: RE: Going back to BLB’s original question ....  
nygiants16 : 8/15/2020 2:53 pm : link
In comment 14950178 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14950172 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


In comment 14950170 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


... my daughter is a freshman at UNC. UNC administrators have done everything right over the past few months in preparation for the start of classes on August 10 — dorms at 50% capacity, deep cleanings, maybe 90% online only classes, mask requirements, student pledge agreements, excellent science-based communication with students and parents.

Just one week in, Covid is ripping through the dorms. Her roommate is already in quarantine and there are clusters of students in her dorm who have already tested positive.

I don’t know whether any student is suffering anything other than mild symptoms, but it seems amazingly infectious to me. I don’t know what the answer is — I vacillate between well, if the kids are asymptomatic then we should press on (because there seems to be no end in sight, with the vaccines likely not a magic bullet) or whether we should just move to a new paradigm of online life. But I gotta tell you, if it doesn’t work in a non-scofflaw wear-your-mask peer pressure culture at UNC, I can’t see it working in any non-bubble group setting (if the threshold for failure includes asymptomatic positives). Oyy.




The only way to prevent spread is testing, you can clean, go half capacity all you want, 1 person brings it in then all that is for nothing..

Now if that person was tested and we know that person has it they can be qiarantined before anyone else comes in contact eith that person..

Rapid testing is key



I left out an important fact ... despite pretty strict enforcement (they have already kicked several kids out of student housing b/c of failure to follow guidelines) and peer pressure, the boys in the suite next door were bragging about going to a 200 person off-campus party. Oh humans.


thats what i mean it only takes 1 stupid person
Oh Jim? Yeah whoops!  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 2:59 pm : link
Quote:
I left out an important fact ... despite pretty strict enforcement (they have already kicked several kids out of student housing b/c of failure to follow guidelines) and peer pressure, the boys in the suite next door were bragging about going to a 200 person off-campus party. Oh humans.


I knew something didn't add up. Boys will be boys... D'uh oh!
Not surprised about the uptick in people contemplating suicide.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 8/15/2020 2:59 pm : link
It's been a really, really rough year. I've been more down in the dumps than I have been since my early 20s when my anxiety/depression crippled me almost daily. Thankfully, I'm in a better place now career/family wise than I was then & I have no shame in seeking help. I see my therapist every 2 weeks & she's told me that she's been incredibly busy these last 5 months or so.

Just a really scared time for a lot of folks, myself included. Just reach out to loved ones, take each day as it comes, & try to find some peace in the crazy world.
.  
Bill2 : 8/15/2020 3:06 pm : link
take good care of yourself SFGF.

Thanks Bill2!  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 8/15/2020 3:13 pm : link
Be well.
Montana giant , are you and your wife blood type O?  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 3:15 pm : link
If you both are then your son must also be type O.

And that might help explain your resistance.
RE: RE: RE: Going back to BLB’s original question ....  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2020 3:18 pm : link
In comment 14950178 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14950172 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


In comment 14950170 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


... my daughter is a freshman at UNC. UNC administrators have done everything right over the past few months in preparation for the start of classes on August 10 — dorms at 50% capacity, deep cleanings, maybe 90% online only classes, mask requirements, student pledge agreements, excellent science-based communication with students and parents.

Just one week in, Covid is ripping through the dorms. Her roommate is already in quarantine and there are clusters of students in her dorm who have already tested positive.

I don’t know whether any student is suffering anything other than mild symptoms, but it seems amazingly infectious to me. I don’t know what the answer is — I vacillate between well, if the kids are asymptomatic then we should press on (because there seems to be no end in sight, with the vaccines likely not a magic bullet) or whether we should just move to a new paradigm of online life. But I gotta tell you, if it doesn’t work in a non-scofflaw wear-your-mask peer pressure culture at UNC, I can’t see it working in any non-bubble group setting (if the threshold for failure includes asymptomatic positives). Oyy.




The only way to prevent spread is testing, you can clean, go half capacity all you want, 1 person brings it in then all that is for nothing..

Now if that person was tested and we know that person has it they can be qiarantined before anyone else comes in contact eith that person..

Rapid testing is key



I left out an important fact ... despite pretty strict enforcement (they have already kicked several kids out of student housing b/c of failure to follow guidelines) and peer pressure, the boys in the suite next door were bragging about going to a 200 person off-campus party. Oh humans.


Yikes that story is crazy, and more than a little scary with so many schools contemplating how to open effectively and fall/flu season closing in. Best of luck to you and your fam Jim.

Also completely agree with nyg16 - rapid testing is the next of the potential innovations that could be a game changer. A month or so ago I read that they thought they'd get to have a point of care rapid capacity around 2m per week by September (might have even been more). That's the technology that can help efficiently create make shift bubbles without the benefit of millions of $ to throw at the problem like the sports leagues. It won't work for everything, but it will hopefully be useful. Just taking out a few more super spreaders than we are able to currently would seem to be a big deal.
RE: Montana giant , are you and your wife blood type O?  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2020 3:19 pm : link
In comment 14950199 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
If you both are then your son must also be type O.

And that might help explain your resistance.


I'm pretty sure the blood type linkage with immunity has been debunked in newer studies, but not positive.
RE: RE: About how some people are immune to it  
montanagiant : 8/15/2020 3:35 pm : link
In comment 14950176 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 14950174 montanagiant said:


Quote:


Been tested 3 times and Negative each time despite many flights and visiting accounts. Wife owns a restaurant and has been tested twice, Negative each time. My Son has an apt with 3 buddies down at his college area. All 3 roommates tested positive with symptoms over a month period while he was still there, he's had 2 tests all Negative. Daughter was recalled from Macedonia by the Peace Corps, she has 3 friends that she hung out with that tested positive, she's had 3 tests all Negative.

We also could have been extremely lucky but the one that sticks out is my son since he was there when all 3 caught it.

Are you all blood type O?

To be honest, I don't know
Original Question  
Percy : 8/15/2020 3:35 pm : link
Does this help? The R/t factor? https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02009-w
Eric interested in reading that, but it was never about  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 3:35 pm : link
"immunity" for type O. Properly stated it was found that type A is more susceptible than any of the others: types O, B, or A/B.
I will find out our blood types on Monday and post it  
montanagiant : 8/15/2020 3:36 pm : link
.
RE: Original Question  
Percy : 8/15/2020 3:53 pm : link
In comment 14950209 Percy said:
Quote:
Does this help? The R/t factor? https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02009-w

And check this out: https://rt.live/.
RE: Not surprised about the uptick in people contemplating suicide.  
Jim from Katonah : 8/15/2020 4:13 pm : link
In comment 14950189 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
It's been a really, really rough year. I've been more down in the dumps than I have been since my early 20s when my anxiety/depression crippled me almost daily. Thankfully, I'm in a better place now career/family wise than I was then & I have no shame in seeking help. I see my therapist every 2 weeks & she's told me that she's been incredibly busy these last 5 months or so.

Just a really scared time for a lot of folks, myself included. Just reach out to loved ones, take each day as it comes, & try to find some peace in the crazy world.


There’s not only “no shame in seeking help,” it’s an indication of courage and resilience to extend beyond your comfort zone and try improve your life. Remember, everyone, even the most “together” seeming people are struggling with things. It’s the nature of being human! Keep doing healthy things, listen to music, read, expand your mind, and keep chugging forward. You got this!
RE: RE: RE: RE: Going back to BLB’s original question ....  
Jim from Katonah : 8/15/2020 4:15 pm : link
In comment 14950200 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14950178 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


In comment 14950172 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


In comment 14950170 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


... my daughter is a freshman at UNC. UNC administrators have done everything right over the past few months in preparation for the start of classes on August 10 — dorms at 50% capacity, deep cleanings, maybe 90% online only classes, mask requirements, student pledge agreements, excellent science-based communication with students and parents.

Just one week in, Covid is ripping through the dorms. Her roommate is already in quarantine and there are clusters of students in her dorm who have already tested positive.

I don’t know whether any student is suffering anything other than mild symptoms, but it seems amazingly infectious to me. I don’t know what the answer is — I vacillate between well, if the kids are asymptomatic then we should press on (because there seems to be no end in sight, with the vaccines likely not a magic bullet) or whether we should just move to a new paradigm of online life. But I gotta tell you, if it doesn’t work in a non-scofflaw wear-your-mask peer pressure culture at UNC, I can’t see it working in any non-bubble group setting (if the threshold for failure includes asymptomatic positives). Oyy.




The only way to prevent spread is testing, you can clean, go half capacity all you want, 1 person brings it in then all that is for nothing..

Now if that person was tested and we know that person has it they can be qiarantined before anyone else comes in contact eith that person..

Rapid testing is key



I left out an important fact ... despite pretty strict enforcement (they have already kicked several kids out of student housing b/c of failure to follow guidelines) and peer pressure, the boys in the suite next door were bragging about going to a 200 person off-campus party. Oh humans.



Yikes that story is crazy, and more than a little scary with so many schools contemplating how to open effectively and fall/flu season closing in. Best of luck to you and your fam Jim.

Also completely agree with nyg16 - rapid testing is the next of the potential innovations that could be a game changer. A month or so ago I read that they thought they'd get to have a point of care rapid capacity around 2m per week by September (might have even been more). That's the technology that can help efficiently create make shift bubbles without the benefit of millions of $ to throw at the problem like the sports leagues. It won't work for everything, but it will hopefully be useful. Just taking out a few more super spreaders than we are able to currently would seem to be a big deal.


Thanks Eric! Agreed that testing holds the key. Cheers.
RE: Eric interested in reading that, but it was never about  
Eric on Li : 8/15/2020 4:23 pm : link
In comment 14950210 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
"immunity" for type O. Properly stated it was found that type A is more susceptible than any of the others: types O, B, or A/B.


The link below is a study that came out last month and seemingly showed there wasn't as much of a link between the blood types than an earlier study. Evaluating the 2 studies is out of my depth but here's how a Harvard article summarized the more recent results:

Quote:
Blood type is not associated with a severe worsening of symptoms in people who have tested positive for COVID-19, report Harvard Medical School researchers based at Massachusetts General Hospital.

Their findings, published in the Annals of Hematology, dispel previous reports that suggested a correlation between certain blood types and COVID-19.

Get more HMS news here

The study did find, however, that symptomatic individuals with blood types B and AB who were Rh positive were more likely to test positive for COVID-19, while those with blood type O were less likely to test positive.

“We showed through a multi-institutional study that there is no reason to believe being a certain ABO blood type will lead to increased disease severity, which we defined as requiring intubation or leading to death,” said senior study author Anahita Dua, HMS assistant professor of surgery at Mass General.

“This evidence should help put to rest previous reports of a possible association between blood type A and a higher risk for COVID-19 infection and mortality,” Dua said

Blood type and outcomes in patients with COVID-19 - ( New Window )
RE: RE: Not surprised about the uptick in people contemplating suicide.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 8/15/2020 4:57 pm : link
In comment 14950216 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14950189 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


It's been a really, really rough year. I've been more down in the dumps than I have been since my early 20s when my anxiety/depression crippled me almost daily. Thankfully, I'm in a better place now career/family wise than I was then & I have no shame in seeking help. I see my therapist every 2 weeks & she's told me that she's been incredibly busy these last 5 months or so.

Just a really scared time for a lot of folks, myself included. Just reach out to loved ones, take each day as it comes, & try to find some peace in the crazy world.



There’s not only “no shame in seeking help,” it’s an indication of courage and resilience to extend beyond your comfort zone and try improve your life. Remember, everyone, even the most “together” seeming people are struggling with things. It’s the nature of being human! Keep doing healthy things, listen to music, read, expand your mind, and keep chugging forward. You got this!


Thanks Jim!
Thanks again Eric.  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 4:59 pm : link
Puts the blood type theory to rest, or at least way down the list of any explanation for why my antibody test (or anyone's) came back negative.
After reading through every post, at least every post  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 5:11 pm : link
that contained any info related to the query in the OP, the best I got is that "reasonable precautions" are quite effective in preventing the virus's transmission.

Reasonable precautions bring wearing a mask when in high exposure risk environments, and good personal hygiene re hand washing and daily showers.

I am not the type of fanatic who strips off all clothes when arriving home from work and loads them in a hamper, or handled those same clothes wearing gloves or with tongs a week or so later when they go into the laundry. I do use a large dose of soap powder in the laundry, along with chlorine or color fast peroxide based bleach additive, and give my clothes a one hour minimum soak in that laundry soap plus bleach infused tub at the beginning of the wash cycle.

I do wash my hands thoroughly just before leaving work, and again when arriving home. (As well as several times during the day - a real 20 seconds plus lathered up washing with a pre-surgical type rinsing.)

I don't often use hand sanitizer, prefer washing if I deem it called for.
BlueLou  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 8/15/2020 5:15 pm : link
I mask up, wear the mask, don't touch my face, wash my hands a lot, & practice social distancing when I can. Ya know, I don't know what else one can do unless you're going to lock yourself in your house. A lot of this is common sense. If anything good comes of this, maybe people will be more hygienic in the future. I've always been a germaphobe so a lot of this-absent wearing a mask, social distancing, & carrying a small bottle of hand sanitizer with me-is commonplace for me.
And I don't, not for the love of G-d,  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 5:19 pm : link
wear a mask when walking for my daily 2 hour exercise outdoors. I have no idea what people are thinking when they wear masks "at large outside" or when you see them driving by in their cars, alone. I do practice the 6 ft distancing rules during my walks, and go into the street to leave the sidewalk free for those crossing my path to keep that distance.

This virus isn't free form floating in the air like pollen during allergy season. Heck its less prevalent than yeast in a winery, I think... At least less prevalent than the titer necessary for infection, in my case, so far...
RE: BlueLou  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/15/2020 5:25 pm : link
In comment 14950239 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I mask up, wear the mask, don't touch my face, wash my hands a lot, & practice social distancing when I can. Ya know, I don't know what else one can do unless you're going to lock yourself in your house. A lot of this is common sense. If anything good comes of this, maybe people will be more hygienic in the future. I've always been a germaphobe so a lot of this-absent wearing a mask, social distancing, & carrying a small bottle of hand sanitizer with me-is commonplace for me.


Hadn't seen your post before I posted just above so please know what I wrote was not a reply to your post. Re the depression this thing has brung on for many I am wholly sympathetic. If my situation wasn't already so much worse than a simple extra quarantine could make it, it might have depressed me too, but when you're on the bottom of the pool already holding your breath for an extended period...

Well the extra burden just doesn't kick in. Peace to you. 🧘
Excellent work, Nitro  
MookGiants : 8/15/2020 11:00 pm : link
Is it just me or does arcarsenal posts contain a lot of hot air? Type a lot of words but a whole lot of nothing as far as substance goes.

It's also pretty nauseating to see him back on Yankee threads when he hopped on the bandwagon in his 30's and spews a lot of hot air on those threads too acting like he's an expert on everything Yankees.

RE: After reading through every post, at least every post  
christian : 8/16/2020 12:15 am : link
In comment 14950238 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
that contained any info related to the query in the OP, the best I got is that "reasonable precautions" are quite effective in preventing the virus's transmission.


Sounds like you are really doing all of the right things to stay safe and healthy. Less than a year after appearing, a lot has been learned about this virus. The preliminary research and plenty of situational evidence points to reasonable precautions really cut down on your chance of catching or spreading it.
I have one question for you Nitro, if you have the answer.  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/16/2020 1:04 am : link
Quote:
Thing is, I actually did have Coronavirus in the spring, and after a rough weekend and a week or two of persistent cough, it was over. Is my experience the only one? Of course not, but stop trying to frighten me with something I've experienced.


Did you pass the virus to others? If yes, how many? If no, how did you prevent transmission and reinfection (of others)?

I have had to deal with numerous patrons at the store where I work who have had the virus, came through it OK (by now) and now refuse to wear any mask because they claim they cannot transmit it.

I think, current medical knowledge has not even established if getting over the virus means that now you cannot get it (again). You seem quite confident you won't catch it again, why?

RE: RE: Marist Poll: 35% will not get vaccinated when vaccine is available  
Ron from Ninerland : 8/16/2020 12:21 pm : link
In comment 14950116 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 14950100 Jim in Fairfax said:


Quote:


Troubling number when you consider that vaccine efficacy is expected to be in the 50-75% range. Unless nearly everyone gets vaccinated we won’t achieve herd immunity and a return to normalcy. A major public education campaign is needed.



Yeah, people are not properly educated (indoctrinated) to take a new vaccine. I’m not getting a new vaccine and neither are the majority of people I talk to either. They are all educated and informed. They are well aware of countless drugs, etc. that have been pushed as safe by the government and corporations with a financial interest, only to later determine that they have serious side effects. Sorry, but I’ll let others be the guinea pig’s first.
You know, this time I'm not worried about the anti-vaxer nonsense. Back in the 60's, the last time infectious diseases were a serious problem in this country, a kid's parents had to present evidence of measles, smallpox and polio vaccinations. otherwise they couldn't go to school, period. If an American was traveling overseas to a third world country, they needed to be vaccinated against whatever diseases were prevalent or they couldn't go. As recently as the 80's when I was in the Navy, we got stuck with multiple vaccines before we could go overseas. Fast forward to today. Its much easier to verify vaccination status. So I'll make this prediction. Anyone who doesn't get a vaccine, not only will be denied access to schools, etcetera, they won't be able to get on a plane or ship, they won't be able to drive to Canada, they may even be banned from some states. They may also have to show proof of vaccination as a condition of employment for any non-ditch digging job. Any COVID anti-vaxer better be prepared to either hide under their bed or move to a cabin in Montana
So we are going to force people to take an unproven vaccine that might  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/16/2020 12:37 pm : link
be dangerous? To population groups COVID has basically proven fairly innocuous to? That is some 1984 shit. I can't believe we live in a society that would force something like that on it's people. In a country where people are free to make unhealthy decisions, I now have to take something that could be dangerous to help them? Might as well cancel America.

I was in Navy and sent overseas so I've had every vaccine known to man and had ZERO issue doing so. This isn't anti vaxxer nonsense. This is all about not taking a vaccine that hasn't been extensively tested.
I love it  
Big Al : 8/16/2020 12:43 pm : link
A unabomber reference.
We always wind up in the same places don’t we?  
trueblueinpw : 8/16/2020 12:48 pm : link
And this is why we can’t have nice things.
A vaccine mandate only makes sense if the vaccine has  
kicker : 8/16/2020 1:43 pm : link
been proven safe. That’s likely voluntary adoption after Phase III.

However, I can see vaccine mandates for schools, healthcare companies mandating it for healthcare workers, and probably high potential infection sectors mandating it for employees.
Meant school  
kicker : 8/16/2020 1:49 pm : link
workers. Kids much less likely.
I think that. Y the time a vaccine is approved,  
Bill L : 8/16/2020 1:51 pm : link
The unproven part and the overall safety fears will be hyperbole. Even after things like dengvaxia which, mechanistically, doesn’t apply here.

But, I’m against mandates in principle. However, I’m super in favor of the approach kicker mentions, just as I was with MMR. Schools and colleges especially should have it as an attendance requirement and employers are absolutely free to make it a requirement. I’m good with all of that.
RE: A vaccine mandate only makes sense if the vaccine has  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/16/2020 1:53 pm : link
In comment 14950511 kicker said:
Quote:
been proven safe. That’s likely voluntary adoption after Phase III.

However, I can see vaccine mandates for schools, healthcare companies mandating it for healthcare workers, and probably high potential infection sectors mandating it for employees.


Kicker, A) thanks for so many fine contributions to this topic.

B) But of course almost every guy objecting to a "mandatory" vaccine slips in the "that hasn't been proven safe" line before ANY vaccine has even been approved...

Oy veh...


Let's talk another possible scenario: the NFL with their big bucks interest in a successful TV only season ets their hands on an approved vaccine with an estimated 75% effectiveness at complete prevention of contraction of the virus.

They offer players a choice: vaccinate, get tested twice for the success of the vaccine (antibody presence at a strong titer) and play without all the restrictions...

Or don't vaccinate, and continue with the testing, semi quarantine, and movement restrictions currently in place.

How many players will willingly choose vaccination?
I had to include that because if it’s not written,  
kicker : 8/16/2020 1:57 pm : link
people will assume that vaccines would be given without safety requirements.

Caveats have to be added to everything nowadays...
RE: So we are going to force people to take an unproven vaccine that might  
christian : 8/16/2020 2:03 pm : link
In comment 14950482 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
I was in Navy and sent overseas so I've had every vaccine known to man and had ZERO issue doing so. This isn't anti vaxxer nonsense. This is all about not taking a vaccine that hasn't been extensively tested.


There’s virtually no chance anyone will be forced to take a vaccine. But with all highly communicable outbreaks, you’ll probably not be able permitted to do a number of things, like attend school, work in a government building, work in many private sector buildings.

For those who do not want to take the vaccine, I’m confident they’ll continue to wear masks and social distance until the time comes they feel comfortable taking it.
Christian  
pjcas18 : 8/16/2020 2:11 pm : link
what do you mean by forced? Physically dragged into a doctor's office or pharmacy and injected with drugs?

if so, I agree. Unlikely.

But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.

Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.
RE: RE: So we are going to force people to take an unproven vaccine that might  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/16/2020 2:17 pm : link
In comment 14950531 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 14950482 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


I was in Navy and sent overseas so I've had every vaccine known to man and had ZERO issue doing so. This isn't anti vaxxer nonsense. This is all about not taking a vaccine that hasn't been extensively tested.



There’s virtually no chance anyone will be forced to take a vaccine. But with all highly communicable outbreaks, you’ll probably not be able permitted to do a number of things, like attend school, work in a government building, work in many private sector buildings.

For those who do not want to take the vaccine, I’m confident they’ll continue to wear masks and social distance until the time comes they feel comfortable taking it.


This is such a flippant response, which is essentially forcing people to take a vaccine. It would be awesome if I don't have bills to pay, but we all do. You want me to take a vaccine fine, but let's outlaw all fast food, sugar, and all the other stuff that would be for the "greater good" as well. Actually there would be a better argument to ban that stuff because there is no risk to it, as opposed to taking some vaccine that isn't extensively tested.

Talking about people's awful health is the ridiculous 3rd rail we have in this country. Drs can't even get tell fat they are fat and need to lose weight anymore. Where is the movement to tell people to get their health in check? We had someone once in a position of power try to get kids healthy and she was crucified for it. Now I'm going to be excommunicated from society because I don't want to take a unproven vaccine? Makes me want to go postal.
RE: Christian  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/16/2020 2:19 pm : link
In comment 14950536 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
what do you mean by forced? Physically dragged into a doctor's office or pharmacy and injected with drugs?

if so, I agree. Unlikely.

But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.

Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.


It's different because these vaccines have years and years of study As opposed to a vaccine that will almost certainly get rushed to market due to overwhelming political pressure.
RE: RE: Christian  
pjcas18 : 8/16/2020 2:23 pm : link
In comment 14950540 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14950536 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


what do you mean by forced? Physically dragged into a doctor's office or pharmacy and injected with drugs?

if so, I agree. Unlikely.

But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.

Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.



It's different because these vaccines have years and years of study As opposed to a vaccine that will almost certainly get rushed to market due to overwhelming political pressure.


desperate times call for desperate measures.
RE: RE: Christian  
Bill L : 8/16/2020 3:25 pm : link
In comment 14950540 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14950536 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


what do you mean by forced? Physically dragged into a doctor's office or pharmacy and injected with drugs?

if so, I agree. Unlikely.

But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.

Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.



It's different because these vaccines have years and years of study As opposed to a vaccine that will almost certainly get rushed to market due to overwhelming political pressure.

The pressure is not political, it’s pandemical. And they’re still going through the same safety trials any other vaccine goes through.
RE: Excellent work, Nitro  
arcarsenal : 8/16/2020 3:38 pm : link
In comment 14950379 MookGiants said:
Quote:
Is it just me or does arcarsenal posts contain a lot of hot air? Type a lot of words but a whole lot of nothing as far as substance goes.

It's also pretty nauseating to see him back on Yankee threads when he hopped on the bandwagon in his 30's and spews a lot of hot air on those threads too acting like he's an expert on everything Yankees.


Looks like it's just you, Mook - but I'll bite...

Not sure what's up with the random attack out of nowhere. I haven't even been here since late last year. Haven't mentioned your name or quoted you a single time since I've been back.

I've also never claimed to be a medical expert or an expert on the virus. I've shared my opinions based on what I've learned; I've provided numbers for New York, where I live. I'm doing the same thing most people are doing. Learning as we go, trying to make the best decisions possible, and looking for ways to get back to normalcy without putting folks in my family and people close to me who are compromised or at higher risk.

Not sure what you're looking for out of my posting on the subject and no one's forcing you to read or react to any of it. Also weird that of the countless posters who have chimed in, you've felt the need to zero-in on me.

Instead of acting like Nitro's cheerleader, why don't you just respond to things I said that seem like "hot air" directly and address it yourself? No reason to hide behind him. If my opinions bother you, be specific and explain why.

As far as the Yankees go...

Seriously? Acting like an expert? I'm just a baseball fan, man. I watch the games and fire off opinions like everyone else does here. It doesn't seem to bother anyone who posts in the threads.

But, I'll do you a favor and no longer post on them since it's so "nauseating"

Imagine being bothered by something like this in a time like we're in right now...

Any time you've posted anything personal here, whether it be about your mom passing, your dog, or anything else, I've always been sure to express condolences, send my best wishes and give any kind words I could. So, apparently I've been wasting my time on someone who doesn't think much of me.

Which is fine. Just surprised by this.

But hey, also thanks for reminding me why I had taken such a long hiatus in the first place. Seems like I made the right call originally.

✌🏻
Bill I'd defer to any information you can provide on the subject.  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/16/2020 3:44 pm : link
Like I said I don't plan on getting it unless I was faced with some compelling information. I understand these drugs go to trial, but how do we know the long term effects in trials that are only so long. I'd imagine these studies take 12 months to develop. However we already see Russia rushing vaccines to market. If it seems to work will there not be political pressure to force something through? Is there a reason we don't have vaccines for other coronavirues? I'd imagine these are hard to lock down so why are things suddenly going to change now? Is it because they re so vastly different? I have no issue taking a flu vaccine because from my understanding it's essentially the same thing with minor tweaks. Inquiring minds want to know.
Pjcas18  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/16/2020 3:51 pm : link
Thats the same mindset that got us the Patriot Act so yeah.
Well, given that some of the huge R&D costs are likely  
kicker : 8/16/2020 3:56 pm : link
to be offset by private or public donors, that gives an incentive to develop it.

It’s also willingness to pay, on the part of all parties. For a common cold, even though private individuals MAY be willing to pay, insurers and governments may not. Similarly, given the relatively short time span of a common cold, a lot of people would probably have the mindset that they would seek remedies when they got the cold; but since it would take time to see doctors, it’s likely they wouldn’t get it.

Phased trials are expensive. It’s why orphan drugs (small numbers of patients) were adopted into the patent code. Common coronaviruses likely never pass a cost/benefit.
RE: Pjcas18  
pjcas18 : 8/16/2020 3:59 pm : link
In comment 14950591 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
Thats the same mindset that got us the Patriot Act so yeah.



Sure, if you view it negatively.

the flip side is it leads to innovation, ingenuity, and creativity.

I read the average vaccine takes 12 - 18 months to get approved, if we can cut that down safely, think of how many lives can be saved.

So many of man's impactful innovations were borne out of dire situations.
And Russia is doing what Russia is doing not because they're rushing  
kicker : 8/16/2020 4:06 pm : link
for political pressure, but because of several concommitant scenarios.

1. Russia itself, and Russian oligarchs, need cash. Every time they talk, it's "look how many other shitty countries want to buy our shitty drug; buy an advance order now to reserve your place in the queue".

2. Russian scientific prestige used to be something they prided themselves on. Nuclear technology, space technology, etc. It's been 30 years since they have had any chance to reassert themselves (it's a cultural thing). Now is the time.

3. Russian life expectancy, due to a statistical recalculation, has started to increase again, after a relative low point around 2005. If you think about it, life expectancy in Russia today is comparable to life expectancy in Russia in 1965. Over that time, it's increased by about 3 years (if you use older calculations, it's about 1 year). It's been about 8x that in the U.S. People are unhappy there. Got to bring back national pride.
I'm not sure I get the animosity on this thread.  
Britt in VA : 8/16/2020 4:07 pm : link
We're kind of all in this together, right, wrong, or indifferent.

The truth is, nobody really knows. At the end of the day, I can still err on the side of caution while still living my life. What is being asked isn't all that egregious, is it? Wear a mask. Try your best to keep your distance. Would I like to go to a restaurant or bar? Yes. Do I have to go into a restaurant or a bar? No. Same thing for sports, concerts, or any other entertainment.

Unfortunately, this is one of those things where "my bad" isn't going to be good enough if you, me, or anybody unknowingly passes this on to somebody else and they get hurt, or we ourselves just happen to be one of the unlucky ones that this hits the wrong way.
RE: Well, given that some of the huge R&D costs are likely  
Bill L : 8/16/2020 4:33 pm : link
In comment 14950594 kicker said:
Quote:
to be offset by private or public donors, that gives an incentive to develop it.

It’s also willingness to pay, on the part of all parties. For a common cold, even though private individuals MAY be willing to pay, insurers and governments may not. Similarly, given the relatively short time span of a common cold, a lot of people would probably have the mindset that they would seek remedies when they got the cold; but since it would take time to see doctors, it’s likely they wouldn’t get it.

Phased trials are expensive. It’s why orphan drugs (small numbers of patients) were adopted into the patent code. Common coronaviruses likely never pass a cost/benefit.


This was going to be my answer. I had a professor in grad school (an allergy researcher) who told me that allergy was a pharmaceutical company’s dream. It doesn’t kill you or cause ultra-serious damage, there’s no cure, but it’s bad enough so you keep coming back to buy medicine. It was a joke but I think that there’s some truth. Common coronaviruses are like that, right? Besides vaccine cost, cold medicines bring in a lot of money and there’s no real moral issue in not curing it.
BillL  
kicker : 8/16/2020 4:43 pm : link
Yeah; that’s a great point, about the “downsides” of not curing.

I’d also imagine it’s much harder to kill something than to treat symptoms (no shit statement of the day), with the attendant cost increases and probability of failure/side effects.
RE: Christian  
christian : 8/16/2020 4:49 pm : link
In comment 14950536 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
what do you mean by forced? Physically dragged into a doctor's office or pharmacy and injected with drugs?

if so, I agree. Unlikely.

But my kids entering college, couldn't even enroll without providing proof of many vaccines.

Why would this be different? Maybe that's technically not forced, but it's still required.


I imagine there will definitely be scenarios (like the ones I posted) where this vaccine will be added to the list of the required vaccines.

Those scenarios exist today and everyone is free to participate or not. That’s hardly the 1984 scenario Zeke described, and to which I was replying.
You have a point about long term effects  
Bill L : 8/16/2020 4:51 pm : link
But to me, it’s not really analogous to Drugs. We have a really good idea about what will happen, immune response-wise. There’s no adjuvant, or if there is, it will be one that we’re familiar with. So, there’s limits to long term effects outside of the immune system. I guess the long term risk is that a vaccine predisposes you to a more severe infection rather than being protective. I know that’s one thing that is being investigated and so far it looks as if that’s low risk (from a mechanism perspective). The concern for me would be lack of efficacy. But I think all that is being worked outand will be vetted.

It usually does take a long time to get even a vaccine through, but usually that’s a company here and there on a single vaccine. This is a very concerted effort with pharma and government but you also have pretty much every scientist in the world working 24/7 to add to the body of basic knowledge on the virus and the immune response to the virus. That’s wealth of knowledge adding to all of the vaccines and the possible outcomes. So, time frame relative to other drugs or vaccines is probably not analogous.
I read  
pjcas18 : 8/16/2020 4:52 pm : link
something that said there hasn't been a coronavirus vaccine because the prior viruses have "disappeared" while the vaccines were in development so the need was no longer pressing. Disappeared is in quotes because it's not really meant to be literal, but figurative.

This was the case with SARS, MERS, H1N1, etc.

And it also is why there was early speculation the same thing would happen with COVID-19

true?
Yeah, that’s why I’m not a real doctor :-)  
kicker : 8/16/2020 4:53 pm : link
My wife and I will be getting it as soon as it’s out, and strongly consider it for our 2 young ones.
RE: RE: RE: So we are going to force people to take an unproven vaccine that might  
christian : 8/16/2020 4:53 pm : link
In comment 14950539 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14950531 christian said:


Quote:


In comment 14950482 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


I was in Navy and sent overseas so I've had every vaccine known to man and had ZERO issue doing so. This isn't anti vaxxer nonsense. This is all about not taking a vaccine that hasn't been extensively tested.



There’s virtually no chance anyone will be forced to take a vaccine. But with all highly communicable outbreaks, you’ll probably not be able permitted to do a number of things, like attend school, work in a government building, work in many private sector buildings.

For those who do not want to take the vaccine, I’m confident they’ll continue to wear masks and social distance until the time comes they feel comfortable taking it.



This is such a flippant response, which is essentially forcing people to take a vaccine. It would be awesome if I don't have bills to pay, but we all do. You want me to take a vaccine fine, but let's outlaw all fast food, sugar, and all the other stuff that would be for the "greater good" as well. Actually there would be a better argument to ban that stuff because there is no risk to it, as opposed to taking some vaccine that isn't extensively tested.

Talking about people's awful health is the ridiculous 3rd rail we have in this country. Drs can't even get tell fat they are fat and need to lose weight anymore. Where is the movement to tell people to get their health in check? We had someone once in a position of power try to get kids healthy and she was crucified for it. Now I'm going to be excommunicated from society because I don't want to take a unproven vaccine? Makes me want to go postal.


That has exactly zero to do with anything. The moment I can catch heart disease or pass it on to my folks silently by breathing on them, I will start worrying about that false comparison.
Well if this is true it's not good news  
montanagiant : 8/16/2020 10:31 pm : link
Quote:
Malaysia has detected a strain of the new coronavirus that’s been found to be 10 times more infectious.

The mutation, earlier seen in other parts of the world and called D614G, was found in at least three of the 45 cases in a cluster that started from a restaurant owner returning from India and breaching his 14-day home quarantine. The man has since been sentenced to five months in prison and fined. The strain was also found in another cluster involving people returning from the Philippines.

Fauci Says New Mutation May Speed the Spread of Coronavirus

The strain could mean that existing studies on vaccines may be incomplete or ineffective against the mutation, said Director-General of Health Noor Hisham Abdullah.

link - ( New Window )
Montana - pretty sure the strain they just found is the one we've had  
Eric on Li : 8/16/2020 10:41 pm : link
it only just got there because they haven't had very many cases (the article says they added 26 cases on Saturday, which was their most since July 28th).

Quote:
The mutation has become the predominant variant in Europe and the U.S., with the World Health Organization saying there’s no evidence the strain leads to a more severe disease. A paper published in Cell Press said the mutation is unlikely to have a major impact on the efficacy of vaccines currently being developed.
RE: Montana - pretty sure the strain they just found is the one we've had  
Percy : 8/16/2020 10:57 pm : link
In comment 14950801 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
it only just got there because they haven't had very many cases (the article says they added 26 cases on Saturday, which was their most since July 28th).



Quote:


The mutation has become the predominant variant in Europe and the U.S., with the World Health Organization saying there’s no evidence the strain leads to a more severe disease. A paper published in Cell Press said the mutation is unlikely to have a major impact on the efficacy of vaccines currently being developed.


At least one study out there indicates that D614G makes the virus more susceptible to neutralization by the vaccines being developed, rather than less, than it was before it became the leading type here and in Europe.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20159905v1
RE: Montana - pretty sure the strain they just found is the one we've had  
montanagiant : 8/16/2020 11:05 pm : link
In comment 14950801 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
it only just got there because they haven't had very many cases (the article says they added 26 cases on Saturday, which was their most since July 28th).



Quote:


The mutation has become the predominant variant in Europe and the U.S., with the World Health Organization saying there’s no evidence the strain leads to a more severe disease. A paper published in Cell Press said the mutation is unlikely to have a major impact on the efficacy of vaccines currently being developed.


Well that definitely is good news Eric!
RE: RE: Montana - pretty sure the strain they just found is the one we've had  
montanagiant : 8/16/2020 11:07 pm : link
In comment 14950811 montanagiant said:
Quote:
In comment 14950801 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


it only just got there because they haven't had very many cases (the article says they added 26 cases on Saturday, which was their most since July 28th).



Quote:


The mutation has become the predominant variant in Europe and the U.S., with the World Health Organization saying there’s no evidence the strain leads to a more severe disease. A paper published in Cell Press said the mutation is unlikely to have a major impact on the efficacy of vaccines currently being developed.




Well that definitely is good news Eric!

The last damn thing we need is a worse mutation of this nightmare
RE: Excellent work, Nitro  
Kyle in NY : 8/16/2020 11:08 pm : link
In comment 14950379 MookGiants said:
Quote:
Is it just me or does arcarsenal posts contain a lot of hot air? Type a lot of words but a whole lot of nothing as far as substance goes.

It's also pretty nauseating to see him back on Yankee threads when he hopped on the bandwagon in his 30's and spews a lot of hot air on those threads too acting like he's an expert on everything Yankees.


This was pretty unnecessary and has nothing to do with the topic being discussed. You're better than that, Mook. To answer your question though, it does seem like it's just you
I'm no doctor though many of my friends are doctors  
SGMen : 8/16/2020 11:31 pm : link
We made a lot of mistakes early on, and IMHO much of that is due to China's...umm...lack of responsibility.

I don't think its very easy to catch else we'd have a lot more cases, especially in crowded cities and towns where people live in small apartments or work in small essential place.
I am positive that the less clean air you have circulating about where someone is symptomatic your chances of getting it go up.
There are people that have been around symptomatic and didn't catch it.
So who really knows the FULL story?
RE: RE: RE: RE: So we are going to force people to take an unproven vaccine that might  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/17/2020 1:22 am : link
In comment 14950629 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 14950539 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


In comment 14950531 christian said:


Quote:


In comment 14950482 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


I was in Navy and sent overseas so I've had every vaccine known to man and had ZERO issue doing so. This isn't anti vaxxer nonsense. This is all about not taking a vaccine that hasn't been extensively tested.



There’s virtually no chance anyone will be forced to take a vaccine. But with all highly communicable outbreaks, you’ll probably not be able permitted to do a number of things, like attend school, work in a government building, work in many private sector buildings.

For those who do not want to take the vaccine, I’m confident they’ll continue to wear masks and social distance until the time comes they feel comfortable taking it.



This is such a flippant response, which is essentially forcing people to take a vaccine. It would be awesome if I don't have bills to pay, but we all do. You want me to take a vaccine fine, but let's outlaw all fast food, sugar, and all the other stuff that would be for the "greater good" as well. Actually there would be a better argument to ban that stuff because there is no risk to it, as opposed to taking some vaccine that isn't extensively tested.

Talking about people's awful health is the ridiculous 3rd rail we have in this country. Drs can't even get tell fat they are fat and need to lose weight anymore. Where is the movement to tell people to get their health in check? We had someone once in a position of power try to get kids healthy and she was crucified for it. Now I'm going to be excommunicated from society because I don't want to take a unproven vaccine? Makes me want to go postal.



That has exactly zero to do with anything. The moment I can catch heart disease or pass it on to my folks silently by breathing on them, I will start worrying about that false comparison.


Right it's worse. People have total contol over it and yet shove donuts and bagels down their gullets on the daily. But all of a sudden they care about their health because they don't get their short term fix? I seriously don't understand it. They same people terrified of this shit are the same that have done zero to protect themselves. I mean shit the quarintne 15 is some huge joke now like haha I just decreased my health outcomes against this virus. The people that are telling me to put shit in my body are the same ones that can't take any personal responsibility for their own decisions. Our medical professionals can't even comment on it or they lose their jobs. It's like Rob Reiner's anti smoking campaign when the dude literally couldn't go 5 minutes without stuffing shit into his face.
RE: Gidie...an obscure COVID question for you  
Bill L : 8/17/2020 7:54 am : link
In comment 14950124 Bill L said:
Quote:
Based on a story in today’s local paper....

How can a town make a plea for help from the courts and the mayor be the lawyer for the opposing side?


Don't know if you say this, but it was my obtuse Ellenville question. Genuinely interested in your thoughts about the subject.
say this = saw this  
Bill L : 8/17/2020 7:54 am : link
.
RE: Well if this is true it's not good news  
HomerJones45 : 8/17/2020 9:29 am : link
In comment 14950796 montanagiant said:
Quote:


Quote:


Malaysia has detected a strain of the new coronavirus that’s been found to be 10 times more infectious.

The mutation, earlier seen in other parts of the world and called D614G, was found in at least three of the 45 cases in a cluster that started from a restaurant owner returning from India and breaching his 14-day home quarantine. The man has since been sentenced to five months in prison and fined. The strain was also found in another cluster involving people returning from the Philippines.

Fauci Says New Mutation May Speed the Spread of Coronavirus

The strain could mean that existing studies on vaccines may be incomplete or ineffective against the mutation, said Director-General of Health Noor Hisham Abdullah.

link - ( New Window )
Well, if you believe in natural selection, this makes some sense. It is logical to think that the most successful virus would be one that infected its host pretty easily but would not kill or debilitate its host too severely so as to more successfully propagate itself. There is a reason the "common cold" is common.
Jeez, Zeke, your really need to give the high horse position  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/17/2020 9:41 am : link
a rest. While you're making your argument for folks to be good to their bodies and health by dint of what and how they eat, you're also unwittingly making a good case for the argument that a lack of donuts causes stupidity.

Maybe you should consume some more of the fats that feed brain cells?
Homer, going one step further in the natural selection  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/17/2020 9:43 am : link
hypothesis, a Covid-19 variant mutant that's largely asymptomatic should have a large advantage re spreading itself through a population...
There’s also a quite easy explanation for why people  
kicker : 8/17/2020 9:44 am : link
don’t give a shit about their overall health related to a diet, while they care more about COVID.

When do the health consequences of eating a Twinkie show up? Compare that to the health consequences of undertaking an activity where COVID infection is relatively high.

A majority of people worldwide are not forward thinking...
RE: There’s also a quite easy explanation for why people  
SGMen : 8/17/2020 9:53 am : link
In comment 14950915 kicker said:
Quote:
don’t give a shit about their overall health related to a diet, while they care more about COVID.

When do the health consequences of eating a Twinkie show up? Compare that to the health consequences of undertaking an activity where COVID infection is relatively high.

A majority of people worldwide are not forward thinking...
Without question, the fact that better health (eating, drinking, sleeping, sun, exercise) isn't being discussed more is a shame.
I have an autoimmune disease related to bad detox genes so I eat clean and drink clean (by and large), including organic soap, toothpaste, shaving cream as most regular brands are loaded with toxic crap.
When I changed my lifestyle, I felt better fairly quickly. But I also have an infrared sauna and rebounder to detox. Crazy how polluted this world is and it all matters.
I'm going to bet that a lot of say "healthy people that got really sick" weren't healthy.
SGMen  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/17/2020 10:06 am : link
Quote:
I have an autoimmune disease related to bad detox genes so I eat clean and drink clean (by and large), including organic soap, toothpaste, shaving cream...
?????

If organic soap, toothpaste, and shaving cream are part of your "eat and drink clean" routine you've got bigger problems than your bad detox gene(s).
RE: SGMen  
SGMen : 8/17/2020 10:11 am : link
In comment 14950926 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:


Quote:


I have an autoimmune disease related to bad detox genes so I eat clean and drink clean (by and large), including organic soap, toothpaste, shaving cream...

?????

If organic soap, toothpaste, and shaving cream are part of your "eat and drink clean" routine you've got bigger problems than your bad detox gene(s).
Trust me, it works wonders.
I worked with the VA War Related Illness and Injury Center along with some really good private doctors. We know, for one example, that these toxins impact men's endocrine systems.
You can make a few simple changes and it has a positive effect.
One Dr. told me after looking at my labs which were off the charts bad that she was surprised I could walk. Once I cleaned up my lifestyle and got that infrared sauna, my labs cleaned up and it changed me for the better.
I think in the next few years you will see much more functional medicine being employed where you look at root causes and the whole person.
I realize most people are unaware.
SG, I was messing with you.  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/17/2020 10:47 am : link
The topic of general health might be better served on a different thread, despite Zeke's insistence on bringing it up here.
RE: SG, I was messing with you.  
SGMen : 8/17/2020 11:11 am : link
In comment 14950951 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
The topic of general health might be better served on a different thread, despite Zeke's insistence on bringing it up here.
Gotcha. It is all good.
RE: There’s also a quite easy explanation for why people  
Bill L : 8/17/2020 11:13 am : link
In comment 14950915 kicker said:
Quote:
don’t give a shit about their overall health related to a diet, while they care more about COVID.

When do the health consequences of eating a Twinkie show up? Compare that to the health consequences of undertaking an activity where COVID infection is relatively high.

A majority of people worldwide are not forward thinking...


I'd focus more on the gratification aspect. At least for myself.
RE: RE: There’s also a quite easy explanation for why people  
kicker : 8/17/2020 11:22 am : link
In comment 14950978 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 14950915 kicker said:


Quote:


don’t give a shit about their overall health related to a diet, while they care more about COVID.

When do the health consequences of eating a Twinkie show up? Compare that to the health consequences of undertaking an activity where COVID infection is relatively high.

A majority of people worldwide are not forward thinking...



I'd focus more on the gratification aspect. At least for myself.


Yeah, gratification is easily incorporated into the time element. When costs/benefits are felt/incurred.
RE: Jeez, Zeke, your really need to give the high horse position  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/17/2020 11:50 am : link
In comment 14950911 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
a rest. While you're making your argument for folks to be good to their bodies and health by dint of what and how they eat, you're also unwittingly making a good case for the argument that a lack of donuts causes stupidity.

Maybe you should consume some more of the fats that feed brain cells?


Ate plenty of sushi and oysters yesterday, thank you very much.
BillL I actually have a question I think you can answer or poss Kicker  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/17/2020 11:55 am : link
Why is that drugs the FDA need to approve have very long clinical trials and vaccines are 12 months? I think that is what is causing some of my reticence. Can we be completely, absolutely sure that there aren't long term health impacts even after 7 years? No, but it seems long enough to make a reasonable assumption and for me personally drugs would be a last case scenario. 12 months in my mind seems much too short. Especially for a brand new vaccine. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts.
Zeke, man, I'm more with you than against you on the eating  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/17/2020 12:01 pm : link
right to stay healthy issue, BUT

YOU have made the argument, over and over and over, that somehow "eating right and taking care of yourself healthwise" can somehow protect you against a VIRUS.

Then you go out and eat a pile of oysters and sushi, exposing yourself to harmful ocean borne viruses and toxic elements that filter feeders like oysters concentrate, to get your healthy fatty acids and protein fix?

You don't get any sense of irony here? You are a tad ignorant to be disposing health advice to the broader population my friend. Do some reading about the latent dangers of raw seafood, especially the bivalves, and viruses.
And Zeke, I know you adressed the question to Bill  
BlueLou'sBack : 8/17/2020 12:08 pm : link
and/or kicker, but vaccines and pharmaceutical drugs are as different as night and day.

There's really no comparison whatsoever between them, since viruses have essentially one mode of action, to stimulate one's own immune system, and "drugs" can work via hundreds of various biochemical mechanisms.

With drugs, for example, one fear might be mutagenicity. This would really never apply to a vaccine, unless to trace elements associated with it somehow.
Well, a lot of vaccines take ~10-15 years. But a sizable fraction  
kicker : 8/17/2020 12:20 pm : link
of that time (~4-7 years) involves exploratory development, pre-clinical stages, and passing a series of regulatory hurdles.

So, yes, this is accelerated. But it's also able to be accelerated because there has been a lot of data sharing, there is pretty robust data out there (it's early, but we're tracking this thing across a variety of regions), and they're able to tie this in to similar diseases.

In case you didn't know, even after a vaccine is approved, there are collection websites (think it's called VAERS) where you can report post-approval adverse reactions to a vaccine.
And yes, while there can be potentially long-lasting effects,  
kicker : 8/17/2020 12:22 pm : link
the purpose of a vaccine is to generate a response almost immediately. A sizable majority of any adverse reactions are going to be present very soon after consumption of the vaccine.

And, any longer-term impacts get harder and harder to ascribe to the vaccine itself. Suppose you get the MMR and, 3 years later, develop a heart arrythmia. It's very unlikely to be able to conclusively tie the two together.

It's a function of risk.
RE: Zeke, man, I'm more with you than against you on the eating  
Zeke's Alibi : 8/17/2020 12:36 pm : link
In comment 14951050 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
right to stay healthy issue, BUT

YOU have made the argument, over and over and over, that somehow "eating right and taking care of yourself healthwise" can somehow protect you against a VIRUS.

Then you go out and eat a pile of oysters and sushi, exposing yourself to harmful ocean borne viruses and toxic elements that filter feeders like oysters concentrate, to get your healthy fatty acids and protein fix?

You don't get any sense of irony here? You are a tad ignorant to be disposing health advice to the broader population my friend. Do some reading about the latent dangers of raw seafood, especially the bivalves, and viruses.


To get the levels of mercury you need for a poor outcome you'd need to eat a bit more than I did. Filter feeders are fine as long as the source is good. Bivalves are actually notoriously good at filtering out the bullshit they eat. Farmed clams are actually fine. Shrimp not so much and I try to stay away from it. But I don't let perfect be the enemy of good.
As far as Vibrio is concerned, I don't worry about it honestly because once again people it affects people severely that have weakened immune systems. Are you seeing a trend here? And we practically eradicated the risk of it in the food supply chain as far as I know, it still happens, but it's rare. It's why you can carry eat Oysters in the summer now, outside of taste. Pork you can eat medium rare now to if you didn't know. I assure you I know what I'm talking about in this realm, it's something I take very seriously.

And yes eating healthy will protect you against viruses, as well as sleeping well, and keeping stress manageable. These things all boost your immune system. Not to mention being fat is a stressor on its own. These things aren't rocket science and have been known for years. The issue is most people aren't healthy. When you go out drinking you feel like crap the next day. The issue with food is its a slow burn, and people don't put two in two together. They put stuff in their mouths that makes them feel good for an hour and then shit and its this endless cycle that becomes the new normal. I had this issue with some pain issues I had. I had no idea what I was feeling in my trap was something that everyone didn't experience. I've had it as long as I can remember and I just though it was something you get after running or intense workouts. To this day I'm still working on postural stuff to fix it.
a combination of what BLB and kicker said  
Bill L : 8/17/2020 12:41 pm : link
To amplify, the mechanism underlying vaccine protection is very different than a drug. Generally, you're targeting a very specific receptor on a limited number of cells (and cell types) versus a receptor often expressed in many organs and biological ("systems") with a multiple effects on each. The actual impact after administration is generally short-term, although the consequences (protection) are long-term. Everything is very different. And remember, that vaccines, unlike many drugs, are forcing your body to do essentially a natural process (immune protection) which is not always (often?) the case with a drug.

And, most vaccines are one-off type of things that are backed by lots of research, but only by one or a few companies. For COVID-19 you have, as I mentioned earlier, virtually every biologist on the planet working their butts off to achieve a single goal, and that is knowledge of the virus and how the host responds to it. SO the overall support is much broader (not to mention the monetary investments which are no small thing) and is constantly being updated and taken into account during the development and trials schemes.
My family doctor  
Bubba : 8/17/2020 1:36 pm : link
is of the opinion that to get back to "normal" a reliable treatment (relieve the symptoms) is more important than a vaccine right now. ie. People need to know that if they contract it they may not be cured but also won't die from it.
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