Took an antibody test last week because I've been exposed literally hundreds if not a thousand or more times through my job at a retail wine and spirits store in an Orthodox Jewish community.
I've taken modest precautions for most of this time - wearing a mask at work, washing my hands 5 or more times during my 6-8 hour work shifts, and avoiding bringing my hands to my face at all times that I am conscious of them.
I don't wear gloves at all since I figure I can carry the virus in a water droplet from a wine bottle touched (or coughed on) by a customer to my face just as easily on a glove as on my bare skin...
I am reasonably knowledgeable about germs, microbes, viruses, disease spread as well as aseptic technique... I've taken college level undergrad or grad level courses in viruses and microbiology both and did well in those courses...
I dont have antibodies, and I've never had any sign of infection of the virus, none whatsoever.
So how easily is this bug transmitted, really?
Later I will go into some historical comparison between the current Covid-19 pandemic and the 1918 H1N1 malaise... So far this current pandemic is honestly weak sauce compared to that one... So far.
That pandemic killed anywhere from 10% to 30% of the world's population, in a world where far fewer people were 65+ years old, the primary mortality target of this current pandemic. I'd throw out the wild guess that we will have a vaccine against Covid-19 well before it reaches the staggering proportion of the 1918 Spanish flu.
Any thoughts appreciated, but let's keep this wholly apolitical, please. Comments from MDs or other healthcare pros especially appreciated in advance.
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When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.
That's really all you need to know.
But to answer the OP's question more specifically:
If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.
I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?
NYC 'peak' cases and deaths were April 7th, so your '5 week' description is not accurate.
Albany and most of upstate never got hammered like NYC despite same rules early on. Right? We got to open sooner cause our numbers were low.
Reasons are obvious for Downstates horrific results. Crowded spaces are a breeding ground for CoVid. Locking down NYC and enforcing distancing laws turned it around and yes, CoVid is not going to turn on a dime. It took about a month after the lockdown for the numbers to really drop to manageable levels, but the fact is that the lockdown DID cause a near immediate drop in cases.
The NYC lockdown saved lives. The crime is that it didn't begin sooner.
Was reading an article the other day where the supposition was that the lag time between testing and result made the test useless in many regards, and that overall, it would be better to use a test which caught fewer percentage of cases, but which has much less lag time to result.
Eventually, test processing capacity will catch up, but that may be a while.
Are you my Albany area neighbor? Thought you were out west somewhere.
How many can that possibly be and how is it categorized - heart attack?
NY is going to be interesting how it plays out. Some believe many more died in nursing homes than reported. Not sure if that will be answered.
Are you my Albany area neighbor? Thought you were out west somewhere.
This post in no way advises anyone to not follow the advice of the experts as I do but I am a pessimist by nature who goes by the odds even if he tends to doubt the odds.
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IMO, it's pretty obvious that lockdown wasn't necessary. A slowdown/targeted shutdown of certain industry would likely have been just as effective, while softening the economic blow. However, this was not obvious at crunch time and thus calamitous decisions were made in a better safe than sorry mindset.
Perhaps - I believe Japan had good results by focusing on *activities* over full lockdowns - no large gatherings, etc. And of course, everyone there masked up.
But in crowded cities like NYC, there wasn't a choice. HAD to lock down to get it under control.
What really sucks for America is that the cows are out of the barn - getting a handle on testing/tracing seems impossible at this point.
My sons and their girlfriends have been tested recently so they could spend time together. First pair in July took 3 days to get results. Second took SEVEN days - just got the results 2 days ago, they're camping as I write this.
A 7 day turnaround on testing is a disaster, makes tracing much harder.
We don't need a cure - we need a quick, cheap, self-test.
x -FWIW - Japan is about the size of California with 125 million people, so it is quite crowded and Tokyo is bigger than NYC - so it would seem they would need large areas of lockdown too. (IMHO)
There will likely never be a cure for COVID, just like there is no cure for almost any virus. It will likely be another seasonal type vaccine to reduce effects.
A quick cheap test is wonderful but will not do enough to limit/prevent the disease. Everyone would need to test daily and you know that isn't happening. We cannot get parents to immunize kids for illnesses that are totally preventable.
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have been deaths related to stress from the lockdowns itself, which means that you can't simply link all of them to COVID.
How many can that possibly be and how is it categorized - heart attack?
Quite frankly, it could be anywhere from 0 to X, where X is the total number of deaths during COVID-19. There are some statistical methods to tease out the likelihood that an excess death is related to government actions taken during COVID, but it's imprecise.
What you are likely to be able to do is look at excess deaths by cause of death (heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, suicide) and assert that the excess is related to the lockdown. But that's a supposition.
But...heart attacks actually increase during good economic times, which is what we saw before COVID, so even that's faulty
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have been deaths related to stress from the lockdowns itself, which means that you can't simply link all of them to COVID.
How many can that possibly be and how is it categorized - heart attack?
Internal estimates I've seen have attributed (nationwide) about 15,000-20,000 deaths due to delaying needed medical care (due to worries about COVID) or due to the stresses of lockdowns.
x -FWIW - Japan is about the size of California with 125 million people, so it is quite crowded and Tokyo is bigger than NYC - so it would seem they would need large areas of lockdown too. (IMHO)
There will likely never be a cure for COVID, just like there is no cure for almost any virus. It will likely be another seasonal type vaccine to reduce effects.
A quick cheap test is wonderful but will not do enough to limit/prevent the disease. Everyone would need to test daily and you know that isn't happening. We cannot get parents to immunize kids for illnesses that are totally preventable.
May well be impossible.
I don't believe *daily* testing would be necessary. When the illness is in check, as it is here in Binghamton, you can do much of what you normally would. People here aren't overly precautious, but are keeping their distance, mostly wearing masks where you'd expect, cases are easily tracked and quarantined. Hospitals running generally under 20 cases total at any given point in time.
Most of the country eventually should and will be in this state - but to get there, every state apparently is going to do it the *hard way*, take their lumps and do the right thing.
I fear the number of lives it will take to get us there.
Couple Assaults 17 year old at Sesame Place for Mask Reminder - ( New Window )
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We need figure out how to protect 5-10% of population....the rest of us need to get back to normal life.
There is no "back to normal life" while protecting the 5-10%. We're all too integrated and connected.
This is the new normal for the next 12-18 months, or longer.
I'm not sure what this 5-10% number is. 5-10% of the people who have been tested may have it, but as numerous study's have shown many more have had it but never got tested because its so minor to them. In general the people getting tested are the sicker ones. Most studies I've seen (from orgs like the CDC and Who) are projecting a number more like 1/2%
There are enough signs to make those possibilities worrisome, but since it's a novel disease, we have no idea whether the issues resolve themselves over time, get worse, etc.
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In comment 14948951 Marty in Albany said:
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When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.
That's really all you need to know.
But to answer the OP's question more specifically:
If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.
I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?
New York 'formally' locked down March 20th (Cuomo announced it in Albany), though NYC subway ridership numbers didn't really sharply decline til about a week later.
NYC 'peak' cases and deaths were April 7th, so your '5 week' description is not accurate.
Albany and most of upstate never got hammered like NYC despite same rules early on. Right? We got to open sooner cause our numbers were low.
Reasons are obvious for Downstates horrific results. Crowded spaces are a breeding ground for CoVid. Locking down NYC and enforcing distancing laws turned it around and yes, CoVid is not going to turn on a dime. It took about a month after the lockdown for the numbers to really drop to manageable levels, but the fact is that the lockdown DID cause a near immediate drop in cases.
The NYC lockdown saved lives. The crime is that it didn't begin sooner.
April 25th was easily one of the top ten days for reported new cases. Locking down NYC may have helped NYC but it caused many, who could, to flee the city and help spread it to the rest of the country, maybe it killed more than it saved. Plus they had the big win with a 350% increase of domestic abuse calls in June.
Fact is other states that have spiked haven't really seen worse overall numbers than NY.
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In comment 14948982 dabru said:
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In comment 14948951 Marty in Albany said:
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When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.
That's really all you need to know.
But to answer the OP's question more specifically:
If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.
I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?
New York 'formally' locked down March 20th (Cuomo announced it in Albany), though NYC subway ridership numbers didn't really sharply decline til about a week later.
NYC 'peak' cases and deaths were April 7th, so your '5 week' description is not accurate.
Albany and most of upstate never got hammered like NYC despite same rules early on. Right? We got to open sooner cause our numbers were low.
Reasons are obvious for Downstates horrific results. Crowded spaces are a breeding ground for CoVid. Locking down NYC and enforcing distancing laws turned it around and yes, CoVid is not going to turn on a dime. It took about a month after the lockdown for the numbers to really drop to manageable levels, but the fact is that the lockdown DID cause a near immediate drop in cases.
The NYC lockdown saved lives. The crime is that it didn't begin sooner.
April 25th was easily one of the top ten days for reported new cases. Locking down NYC may have helped NYC but it caused many, who could, to flee the city and help spread it to the rest of the country, maybe it killed more than it saved. Plus they had the big win with a 350% increase of domestic abuse calls in June.
Fact is other states that have spiked haven't really seen worse overall numbers than NY.
You can't compare New York to states with significantly lower population densities.
If there was never any lockdown or pause button hit in NY, we never would have gotten any handle on this. The way the city operates is way too conducive to rapid spreading with so many folks utilizing public transportation.
If anything, the lockdown should have happened earlier.
It's all an inexact science, and hindsight routinely comes into play as we learn more about the virus.
I don't think anyone wants to just lock the country down for months on end. We all realize that's not going to help, either. But, I think it's backwards for people to keep blowing through protocols to try and save the economy. Doing this creates setbacks, and then we move backwards again.
The economy can't recover until the virus is under control.
Also, not sure where you're getting that 350% number from, but I've not seen that anywhere...
"Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.
As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by other causes linked to the pandemic. " The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 - ( New Window )
yea but there been more dangerous storms so lightning deaths are probably way up
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In comment 14948988 x meadowlander said:
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In comment 14948982 dabru said:
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In comment 14948951 Marty in Albany said:
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When steps are taken to reduce physical social contacts as has been done in NY, the rates fall dramatically. When social distancing is not done because of governmental relaxation and the pathetic ignorance or hubris of members of the public, the rates soar.
That's really all you need to know.
But to answer the OP's question more specifically:
If a given population starts out healthy and is a homogeneous group where there are few outsiders, or visitors bringing in possible virus contamination, that group ought to remain pretty virus free. I believe that New Zealand is used as an example of that result. A community of orthodox Jews, might also fit into that category.
I think the first part of your comment is bullshit, the amount of people infected in NY was blowing up for 5 weeks after shutdowns and the state has one of the highest infection rates per capita and the second highest deaths per capita after NJ. Is it possible that it just burned itself out in some areas because so many got infected so quickly?
New York 'formally' locked down March 20th (Cuomo announced it in Albany), though NYC subway ridership numbers didn't really sharply decline til about a week later.
NYC 'peak' cases and deaths were April 7th, so your '5 week' description is not accurate.
Albany and most of upstate never got hammered like NYC despite same rules early on. Right? We got to open sooner cause our numbers were low.
Reasons are obvious for Downstates horrific results. Crowded spaces are a breeding ground for CoVid. Locking down NYC and enforcing distancing laws turned it around and yes, CoVid is not going to turn on a dime. It took about a month after the lockdown for the numbers to really drop to manageable levels, but the fact is that the lockdown DID cause a near immediate drop in cases.
The NYC lockdown saved lives. The crime is that it didn't begin sooner.
April 25th was easily one of the top ten days for reported new cases. Locking down NYC may have helped NYC but it caused many, who could, to flee the city and help spread it to the rest of the country, maybe it killed more than it saved. Plus they had the big win with a 350% increase of domestic abuse calls in June.
Fact is other states that have spiked haven't really seen worse overall numbers than NY.
You can't compare New York to states with significantly lower population densities.
If there was never any lockdown or pause button hit in NY, we never would have gotten any handle on this. The way the city operates is way too conducive to rapid spreading with so many folks utilizing public transportation.
If anything, the lockdown should have happened earlier.
It's all an inexact science, and hindsight routinely comes into play as we learn more about the virus.
I don't think anyone wants to just lock the country down for months on end. We all realize that's not going to help, either. But, I think it's backwards for people to keep blowing through protocols to try and save the economy. Doing this creates setbacks, and then we move backwards again.
The economy can't recover until the virus is under control.
Also, not sure where you're getting that 350% number from, but I've not seen that anywhere...
Dont want to get into it to much but NY and NJ deaths are higher is because 50% cme from nursing homes, their executive orders were moronic..
Significant damage was done in New York early on. We didn't avoid it or conquer it - but the numbers right now are a lot better than they were in April.
Peak had us near 12,000 cases at one time - I believe we're under 700 now and have had < 10 deaths each day in August.
Each state has different challenges with this due to population density and how they generally operate. It's significantly more difficult to contain viral spread in Manhattan than more rural areas in the midwest.
Significant damage was done in New York early on. We didn't avoid it or conquer it - but the numbers right now are a lot better than they were in April.
Peak had us near 12,000 cases at one time - I believe we're under 700 now and have had < 10 deaths each day in August.
Each state has different challenges with this due to population density and how they generally operate. It's significantly more difficult to contain viral spread in Manhattan than more rural areas in the midwest.
The deaths are closer to 0 daily now in ny and nj...Murphy has said when he reports deaths now most if not all are from a few months ago
However, we have a number of issues in this country (relative to other developed nations) that made alternative solutions perhaps less likely to be the first tool utilized.
1. Geographic dispersion and population density (suburbia).
2. A reluctance to listen to government (hence, mask wearing and social distancing policies that rely on moral suasion may be ineffective).
3. A relative low distrust in vaccines.
4. An intolerance for death.
I listened to a podcast last night about a new model to predict a certain event. 30 minutes, lot of interesting questions, lots of interesting data and political science, smart experts all. But at the end of the discussion I was like, “eh, there’s too many variables for any certainty here. So what’s the point”?
FWIW... and I know not much.
I don't think this is accurate.
Still, the Spanish Flu was clearly an order of magnitude greater than the current Covid crisis. Especially when it comes to the younger and healthy demographic. Just wanted to point out that even though Covid isn't quite comparable to the Spanish Flu, it's still an extremely devastating event considering the medical advances we've made. Just like how Spanish Flu wasn't comparable to the Black Death, but still extremely devastating considering the medical advances that had been made.
basically two hair dressers saw clients and turned out both hair dressers both had covid
The health department contact traceed all their 139 clients and turn out none got the virus ..
everyone in the shop the hairdressers and clients all were strict about their mask wearing .. and social distancing when not with clients .
Facemask seemed to be the key in preventing the spread of covid in this case -- maybe that is with you as well ..
Hairstylists with COVID-19 didn't infect any of their 139 clients. Face masks may be why. - ( New Window )
Is there a plexiglass barrier between you and them at all times?
What is your blood type? (A is reported to be more susceptible)
Most of our customers don't wear masks. No plexiglass. I am the most susceptible blood type (A) with the most dangerous and well known pre-conditions of hypertension and diabetes, long term. I am on the cusp of 65 yo.
Those are the reasons, along my with the fact that our community where the store is located - Monsey, NY - was hit hard by CV-19, that I asked to be tested for the antivirus.
Someone thought our community might be "isolated."
Just the opposite, we have and had frequent interactions and interchange with other Orthodox Jewish communities that got SLAMMED WELL ABOVE ANY OTHER "ordinary" community. Hassids in Brooklyn, and those living near and among them, were ravaged by the virus.
Same in Israel, Orthodox communities got hit far worse than non Orthodox.
Lord only knows how bad it hit Palestinians or Muslims in Israel and in the West Bank.
But I'm talking about New York where I work and Jersey where I live.
Saw another story about a woman who assaulted a gate agent at the Phoenix airport because they wouldn't let her board her connecting flight because she refused to keep her mask on on the first leg of the trip.
These emotionally crippled, emo snowflakes need to stay home if they can't respect that private businesses are allowed to set and enforce rules. Not a single one of them understands what the word "freedom" means.
Not enough time right now as I get prepared for work, but I will revisit this entire thread several times tonight.
Again thank you also for keeping politics out of this discussion.
This. Among the people I work with, only the wine shop owner refuses to mask up and wash hands regularly. Everyone else is 100% invested in protecting themselves and others.
One of my part time co-workers manages sanitation at an old age home. He has preached the importance of protection to us over and over, and provided us with ame reasons to fear or at least respect the bug.
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. Couple Assaults 17 year old at Sesame Place for Mask Reminder - ( New Window )
Saw another story about a woman who assaulted a gate agent at the Phoenix airport because they wouldn't let her board her connecting flight because she refused to keep her mask on on the first leg of the trip.
These emotionally crippled, emo snowflakes need to stay home if they can't respect that private businesses are allowed to set and enforce rules. Not a single one of them understands what the word "freedom" means.
Ahh yes, the "freedom" argument. I have a couple friends that routinely throw that out and I ask for examples which turns into a comedy show.
Still, the Spanish Flu was clearly an order of magnitude greater than the current Covid crisis. Especially when it comes to the younger and healthy demographic. Just wanted to point out that even though Covid isn't quite comparable to the Spanish Flu, it's still an extremely devastating event considering the medical advances we've made. Just like how Spanish Flu wasn't comparable to the Black Death, but still extremely devastating considering the medical advances that had been made.
I might well have made an order of magnitude error so that my 10-30% is really 1-3%!
I'll link the article from the CDC summarizing the history of the Spanish flu, but I didn't confuse it with the black plague.
Just sloppy math.
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In comment 14949028 UConn4523 said:
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. Couple Assaults 17 year old at Sesame Place for Mask Reminder - ( New Window )
Saw another story about a woman who assaulted a gate agent at the Phoenix airport because they wouldn't let her board her connecting flight because she refused to keep her mask on on the first leg of the trip.
These emotionally crippled, emo snowflakes need to stay home if they can't respect that private businesses are allowed to set and enforce rules. Not a single one of them understands what the word "freedom" means.
Ahh yes, the "freedom" argument. I have a couple friends that routinely throw that out and I ask for examples which turns into a comedy show.
It really is unbelievable.
Wanna see kids in swollen swim diapers in wading pools? Have I got the park for you!
Upstate, hospitals were ordered to be prepared to take overflow patients. In Binghamton, the hockey Arena was secured as a triage center. Every hospital had their parking lots turned into tent city triage facilities.
Facing all that, the decision governments were left with - what to do with discharged patients who still needed professional care? Send them upstate? Upstate may well be overrun at the same time. Logistical issues. NIMBY issues. Convert hotels? Time and staff were issues. Nursing Homes were a terrible option, but seemed like the most logical choice at the time. When the crisis subsided, the order was rescinded.
It was awful. A tragedy. The whole Pandemic is.
His response has been "It's pure politics" when he is questioned. Pretty weak imo and many find it arrogant.
His response has been "It's pure politics" when he is questioned. Pretty weak imo and many find it arrogant.
There is so much to be said about the Nursing Home issue, and he gives these weird one line answers - I believe he knows many lawsuits will be launched from rightly pissed off families of Nursing Home dead, and he is playing it safe by keeping quiet.
It's a shame.
He also tells me there are definitely people who do not die from it but end up with comorbidities they may battle forever.
The only sane way to respond to what's known and what's not is to do the Fauci stuff. Mask, distance, wash.
For what it's worth he also says that even if shutdowns turn out in hindsight to have been unnecessary in some cases, it is the only responsible thing to do in the face of what we know and what we don't. But he admits he approaches the question from a biology/public health perspective and not that of a businessperson or politician
You have it reversed. It’s less than SARS, more than Flu.
from Jerusalem Post... - ( New Window )