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What Do You Expect Out of Barkley This Year?

christian : 9/14/2020 11:24 am
For the Giants and for him personally this is a huge year for Barkley. He's all but certain to ask for a contract extension after this, his third year.

For comparison, his two contemporaries at the top of most lists for best backs in the league, did this in year 3 prior to being extended.

2019 Christian McCaffrey:

16 games | 2392 Yards | 115 First Downs | 19 TDs | 1 Fumble

2018 Ezekiel Elliot:

15 games | 2001 Yards | 108 First Downs | 9 TDs | 6 Fumbles

My prediction for Barkley:

15 games | 1900 Yards | 90 First Downs | 13 TDs | 0 Fumbles
Health provided,  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 9/14/2020 11:26 am : link
a monster year. And hopefully we utilize him in the passing game more than Shurmur did.
Is last year’s HAS behind him?  
Big Blue '56 : 9/14/2020 11:28 am : link
If so, a very big year
He's going to be featured  
emcca005 : 9/14/2020 11:32 am : link
so I'm expecting huge things from him if he stays healthy.

16 games 2000+ total yards with 13 total TDs should be a reasonable bar with his ability.
RE: Health provided,  
christian : 9/14/2020 11:34 am : link
In comment 14969665 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
a monster year. And hopefully we utilize him in the passing game more than Shurmur did.


Barkley averaged nearly 7 targets a game the last 2 years. In 2018 he had more targets in 16 games than Shepard did in 16 games. Barkley has been a big part of the pass game.
I want to see more Passes to him out in space and crossing the field  
jvm52106 : 9/14/2020 11:53 am : link
as well as more screen passes. I want top see less dancing around and more power when it is needed.

I think 1300 yards rushing and 700 plus yards receiving would be awesome.
greatness  
djm : 9/14/2020 11:57 am : link
and not that useless greatness we saw in 2018. This year I expect to see greatness that leads to more than 5 wins.
The Expectation  
lax counsel : 9/14/2020 12:01 pm : link
Should be minimum 2200 all purpose yards with 15 + tds. He also needs to put the team on his back if they are struggling at any one point. With the way he is spoken about and his draft position, that should be the minimum expectation.
Have no clue  
Thegratefulhead : 9/14/2020 12:04 pm : link
My hope is injury free.
RE: greatness  
lax counsel : 9/14/2020 12:04 pm : link
In comment 14969722 djm said:
Quote:
and not that useless greatness we saw in 2018. This year I expect to see greatness that leads to more than 5 wins.


Well said. It needs to be greatness that moves the needle in the W-L column. Realize he cannot do it all by himself, but the contributions need to be profoundly impactful.
RE: The Expectation  
UConn4523 : 9/14/2020 12:08 pm : link
In comment 14969727 lax counsel said:
Quote:
Should be minimum 2200 all purpose yards with 15 + tds. He also needs to put the team on his back if they are struggling at any one point. With the way he is spoken about and his draft position, that should be the minimum expectation.


2200 yards is a fuckton - I don't think that's a reasonable floor for any RB. And If we are behind a lot this year then his rushing yards will naturally dip due to gameflow.

I'd be happy with a floor of 1,800 yards on 350-400 touches and 12+ TD's.
RE: RE: The Expectation  
lax counsel : 9/14/2020 12:09 pm : link
In comment 14969738 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14969727 lax counsel said:


Quote:


Should be minimum 2200 all purpose yards with 15 + tds. He also needs to put the team on his back if they are struggling at any one point. With the way he is spoken about and his draft position, that should be the minimum expectation.



2200 yards is a fuckton - I don't think that's a reasonable floor for any RB. And If we are behind a lot this year then his rushing yards will naturally dip due to gameflow.

I'd be happy with a floor of 1,800 yards on 350-400 touches and 12+ TD's.


I don't think its an unreasonable number for a player of his caliber, especially if he is used more in the passing game.
it's a good question and one i'm not completely sure of  
Eric on Li : 9/14/2020 12:12 pm : link
I spent a ton on him in FF so i'm expecting him to do well, but how he evolves in this offense is tricky. I lean against him setting records like CMC because he has piled up his numbers basically being a one man show on a team playing from behind the past 2 years with poor downfield passers. That may end up being the situation here, but if Jones takes steps forward there are weapons beyond Barkley. So in a way I think the better the team is the less eye popping Barkley's numbers may be.

Among recent RB seasons I think our best hope would be something close to Zeke Elliot's 3rd season which was also Dak's 3rd year. Zeke's best year is still his rookie year, then he only played 10 games his second year.

In his 3rd year he bounced back and played 15 games and put up:
304 carries
1434 rushing yards (4.7 ypc)
77 receptions for 567 yards
9 total TDS

2k total yards + 10 tds seems like a solid baseline and is basically the average of what Barkley put up in his first 2 years. If he stays healthy and Garrett's system and the OL click there's probably upside beyond that.
To stay healthy this year  
Dave in Hoboken : 9/14/2020 12:14 pm : link
and nothing short of greatness on the field.
.  
arcarsenal : 9/14/2020 12:16 pm : link
2000 yards from scrimmage.
More than  
Boatie Warrant : 9/14/2020 12:17 pm : link
bw in dc that's for sure
Crossing my fingers for a healthy season  
larryflower37 : 9/14/2020 12:22 pm : link
I would be happy to similar stats to his rookie Year
261 attempts - 1307 yards,11 tds, 5.0 yds per attempts
91 catches for 721 yds 4tds

2028 total yds.

With that said I think he left a ton of yards on the table in his rookie season and think he could add much more in the right system
I said 2200 yards is an unreasonable floor  
UConn4523 : 9/14/2020 12:23 pm : link
not that it wasn’t attainable.
RE: The Expectation  
CT Charlie : 9/14/2020 2:02 pm : link
In comment 14969727 lax counsel said:
Quote:
Should be minimum 2200 all purpose yards with 15 + tds. He also needs to put the team on his back if they are struggling at any one point. With the way he is spoken about and his draft position, that should be the minimum expectation.


In football, I really don't see how anyone but a quarterback (with a good O-line) can "put the team on his back." In basketball, maybe, an unstoppable player can take over a game in the 4th quarter. Football? An RB needs blockers, and he needs play calling that includes deception and misdirection, AND he needs other reliable players to share the load. If there are no holes, even a Gayle Sayers can't get past the line of scrimmage.
...  
christian : 9/14/2020 2:05 pm : link
There have been fewer than 25 2,200 all purpose yard seasons in NFL history. I agree with UConn, that's a tough floor.

You also have to take in consideration wracking up yards with one player can also be the symptom of a stagnant offense.

For every 1999 Rams or 2006 Chargers -- there are the Chris Johnson Titans and the CMC Panthers -- who had anemic offenses. I think the Giants offense is a little more diverse. Especially if Engram and Shepard stay healthy.

RE: He's going to be featured  
allstarjim : 9/14/2020 2:16 pm : link
In comment 14969675 emcca005 said:
Quote:
so I'm expecting huge things from him if he stays healthy.

16 games 2000+ total yards with 13 total TDs should be a reasonable bar with his ability.


If he plays 16 games, I'll take the over on 2300 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs.
RE: RE: He's going to be featured  
lax counsel : 9/14/2020 2:19 pm : link
In comment 14969935 allstarjim said:
Quote:
In comment 14969675 emcca005 said:


Quote:


so I'm expecting huge things from him if he stays healthy.

16 games 2000+ total yards with 13 total TDs should be a reasonable bar with his ability.



If he plays 16 games, I'll take the over on 2300 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs.


Agreed. And it's not an unreasonable expectation for someone hyped as much as Barkley has been in recent memory.
...  
christian : 9/14/2020 2:48 pm : link
There have only been five 2300/15TD seasons in the history of the NFL.

The expectation is he have an all time great season? That seems aggressive.
RE: ...  
allstarjim : 9/14/2020 2:52 pm : link
In comment 14969975 christian said:
Quote:
There have only been five 2300/15TD seasons in the history of the NFL.

The expectation is he have an all time great season? That seems aggressive.


Yes. His peers are really the guys on that top 5 list...the LaDainian Tomlinson's and Marshall Faulk's type of players, and I would put CMC into that group now. So yes, if he's healthy for 16 games, that is what I expect from him. I wouldn't be shocked out of a 20 TD season or more from him.
RE: RE: RE: He's going to be featured  
Big Blue '56 : 9/14/2020 2:54 pm : link
In comment 14969941 lax counsel said:
Quote:
In comment 14969935 allstarjim said:


Quote:


In comment 14969675 emcca005 said:


Quote:


so I'm expecting huge things from him if he stays healthy.

16 games 2000+ total yards with 13 total TDs should be a reasonable bar with his ability.



If he plays 16 games, I'll take the over on 2300 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs.



Agreed. And it's not an unreasonable expectation for someone hyped as much as Barkley has been in recent memory.


“Hyped?” He’s everything that they said he’d be and more, when uninjured..
I think many are going to be disappointed  
UConn4523 : 9/14/2020 2:56 pm : link
in all honesty. 2,000 yards is just a ton. It was a ton for Barry Sanders (twice), Faulk (four times), Barkley (once already), anyone.
Really the sky's the limit.  
LBH15 : 9/14/2020 2:58 pm : link
Hoping Barkley just stays focused and patient because the yards and big plays will come.

Noticeable frustration at times with him last year and wouldn't be surprised if he allowed it to creep into his game with some drops and the poor pass protection that we didn't see rookie year.

2,000 yards and 12 TDs feels right.
RE: RE: greatness  
djm : 9/14/2020 3:53 pm : link
In comment 14969733 lax counsel said:
Quote:
In comment 14969722 djm said:


Quote:


and not that useless greatness we saw in 2018. This year I expect to see greatness that leads to more than 5 wins.



Well said. It needs to be greatness that moves the needle in the W-L column. Realize he cannot do it all by himself, but the contributions need to be profoundly impactful.


yep, forget the stats, if Barkley averages 4.2 YPC with 1500 all purpose yards, 10 TDs, those aren't other world numbers, but if score 400 pts in meaningful fashion, we should all be thrilled. Screw the numbers. Win games on Barkley first down runs in the second half. That's what I want.
...  
christian : 9/14/2020 4:39 pm : link
I think there are a few numbers you want to hit and a few numbers you don't want to hit.

- I don't want Barkley to get 350 touches/380 plays like he did in 2018 -- 39% of plays shouldn't go to him

- I don't want him to catch less than 75% of his targets

- I do want to see him get 100 first downs

- I do want to see him score 15 TDs

- I do want him to average 5 YPC

- I do want him to average 9 YPR
RE: I think many are going to be disappointed  
Spider43 : 9/14/2020 4:54 pm : link
In comment 14969989 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
in all honesty. 2,000 yards is just a ton. It was a ton for Barry Sanders (twice), Faulk (four times), Barkley (once already), anyone.


Yup. I'm not expecting much. Injury-free is pretty much it.
3,000 total yards from scrimmage  
PatersonPlank : 9/14/2020 5:08 pm : link
Make it so
2000+  
JonC : 9/14/2020 5:26 pm : link
Third year, hopefully Garrett and his scheme meshes better with all of the talent, especially SB and Jones. Time for SB to show growth with his patience, which will help his vision, and show develop with his pass pro, receiving, and consistency play to play.

He's got a tendency to be very, very hard on himself. He's got to let go of the bad plays and move on quickly.
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