For the Giants and for him personally this is a huge year for Barkley. He's all but certain to ask for a contract extension after this, his third year.
For comparison, his two contemporaries at the top of most lists for best backs in the league, did this in year 3 prior to being extended.
2019 Christian McCaffrey:
16 games | 2392 Yards | 115 First Downs | 19 TDs | 1 Fumble
2018 Ezekiel Elliot:
15 games | 2001 Yards | 108 First Downs | 9 TDs | 6 Fumbles
My prediction for Barkley:
15 games | 1900 Yards | 90 First Downs | 13 TDs | 0 Fumbles
16 games 2000+ total yards with 13 total TDs should be a reasonable bar with his ability.
Barkley averaged nearly 7 targets a game the last 2 years. In 2018 he had more targets in 16 games than Shepard did in 16 games. Barkley has been a big part of the pass game.
I think 1300 yards rushing and 700 plus yards receiving would be awesome.
Well said. It needs to be greatness that moves the needle in the W-L column. Realize he cannot do it all by himself, but the contributions need to be profoundly impactful.
2200 yards is a fuckton - I don't think that's a reasonable floor for any RB. And If we are behind a lot this year then his rushing yards will naturally dip due to gameflow.
I'd be happy with a floor of 1,800 yards on 350-400 touches and 12+ TD's.
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Should be minimum 2200 all purpose yards with 15 + tds. He also needs to put the team on his back if they are struggling at any one point. With the way he is spoken about and his draft position, that should be the minimum expectation.
2200 yards is a fuckton - I don't think that's a reasonable floor for any RB. And If we are behind a lot this year then his rushing yards will naturally dip due to gameflow.
I'd be happy with a floor of 1,800 yards on 350-400 touches and 12+ TD's.
I don't think its an unreasonable number for a player of his caliber, especially if he is used more in the passing game.
Among recent RB seasons I think our best hope would be something close to Zeke Elliot's 3rd season which was also Dak's 3rd year. Zeke's best year is still his rookie year, then he only played 10 games his second year.
In his 3rd year he bounced back and played 15 games and put up:
304 carries
1434 rushing yards (4.7 ypc)
77 receptions for 567 yards
9 total TDS
2k total yards + 10 tds seems like a solid baseline and is basically the average of what Barkley put up in his first 2 years. If he stays healthy and Garrett's system and the OL click there's probably upside beyond that.
261 attempts - 1307 yards,11 tds, 5.0 yds per attempts
91 catches for 721 yds 4tds
2028 total yds.
With that said I think he left a ton of yards on the table in his rookie season and think he could add much more in the right system
In football, I really don't see how anyone but a quarterback (with a good O-line) can "put the team on his back." In basketball, maybe, an unstoppable player can take over a game in the 4th quarter. Football? An RB needs blockers, and he needs play calling that includes deception and misdirection, AND he needs other reliable players to share the load. If there are no holes, even a Gayle Sayers can't get past the line of scrimmage.
You also have to take in consideration wracking up yards with one player can also be the symptom of a stagnant offense.
For every 1999 Rams or 2006 Chargers -- there are the Chris Johnson Titans and the CMC Panthers -- who had anemic offenses. I think the Giants offense is a little more diverse. Especially if Engram and Shepard stay healthy.
16 games 2000+ total yards with 13 total TDs should be a reasonable bar with his ability.
If he plays 16 games, I'll take the over on 2300 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs.
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so I'm expecting huge things from him if he stays healthy.
16 games 2000+ total yards with 13 total TDs should be a reasonable bar with his ability.
If he plays 16 games, I'll take the over on 2300 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs.
Agreed. And it's not an unreasonable expectation for someone hyped as much as Barkley has been in recent memory.
The expectation is he have an all time great season? That seems aggressive.
The expectation is he have an all time great season? That seems aggressive.
Yes. His peers are really the guys on that top 5 list...the LaDainian Tomlinson's and Marshall Faulk's type of players, and I would put CMC into that group now. So yes, if he's healthy for 16 games, that is what I expect from him. I wouldn't be shocked out of a 20 TD season or more from him.
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In comment 14969675 emcca005 said:
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so I'm expecting huge things from him if he stays healthy.
16 games 2000+ total yards with 13 total TDs should be a reasonable bar with his ability.
If he plays 16 games, I'll take the over on 2300 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs.
Agreed. And it's not an unreasonable expectation for someone hyped as much as Barkley has been in recent memory.
“Hyped?” He’s everything that they said he’d be and more, when uninjured..
Noticeable frustration at times with him last year and wouldn't be surprised if he allowed it to creep into his game with some drops and the poor pass protection that we didn't see rookie year.
2,000 yards and 12 TDs feels right.
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and not that useless greatness we saw in 2018. This year I expect to see greatness that leads to more than 5 wins.
Well said. It needs to be greatness that moves the needle in the W-L column. Realize he cannot do it all by himself, but the contributions need to be profoundly impactful.
yep, forget the stats, if Barkley averages 4.2 YPC with 1500 all purpose yards, 10 TDs, those aren't other world numbers, but if score 400 pts in meaningful fashion, we should all be thrilled. Screw the numbers. Win games on Barkley first down runs in the second half. That's what I want.
- I don't want Barkley to get 350 touches/380 plays like he did in 2018 -- 39% of plays shouldn't go to him
- I don't want him to catch less than 75% of his targets
- I do want to see him get 100 first downs
- I do want to see him score 15 TDs
- I do want him to average 5 YPC
- I do want him to average 9 YPR
Yup. I'm not expecting much. Injury-free is pretty much it.
He's got a tendency to be very, very hard on himself. He's got to let go of the bad plays and move on quickly.