FF 9/21

Not the greatest day for FF enthusiasts yesterday. I was slamming shit the moment Barkley hit the turf.

However, time to move forward. How are the results?

I've safely secured 2 wins out of 4 leagues, and in another I need 6 points from Jared Cook tonight to win, so it's close. The 4th league I'm just not even competitive.

Some things I learned this week about my teams:

Never bench D.K. Metcalf again. I played Cooper Kupp in front of Metcalf in one league, who I feared might get shut down by Stephon Gilmore, the league's reigning defensive player of the year. Gilmore indeed covered Metcalf all night last night, but Metcalf was up to the task, with 4 catches on 6 targets, 92 yards, and a score. D.K. is just too good to bench, and he's in an offense right now that might be the best in the NFL with Russ really slinging it. Just to finish the thought, in another league I benched him in favor of A.J. Green AND Parris Campbell. Oof. Yeah, that matchup, as you might guess, I'm getting curb-stomped in.

Time to downgrade Cooper Kupp. Yes, he's still going to be fantasy relevant, and can be a useful starter. But at this point I have him as a low end WR2 or a useful flex rather than the low end #1 or high end #2 that he was thought of in the recent past. And the reason is the emergence of Tyler Higbee as one of Goff's most trusted targets.

In 2019, Tyler Higbee exploded onto the fantasy landscape and as a huge contributor to the Rams' offense in week 12. From week 12 to week 16, a span of 5 games, Higbee had 43 receptions on 56 targets for 522 yards and 2 TDs, a pretty significant target for Jared Goff and tremendous fantasy and real-life production.

Prior to week 12, Cooper Kupp averaged 9.45 targets, 6.09 receptions, and 80 yards per game, and that includes a week 10 outlier where the Steelers' secondary shut him out.

From week 12 to week 16, coinciding with Higbee's emergence, Kupp averaged 6 targets and 5.4 catches and 56.2 yards per game.

This year, after 2 games, while Higbee has continued to be a trusted target for Goff, although the target numbers are down from the end of last year, Kupp has averaged 4.5 catches on 6.5 targets for 60.5 yards per game. Basically, this is very similar to what we saw from him at the end of last season.

I think this is a trend, and I have no doubt Kupp is going to have big games down the road, and I should mention Kupp scored a TD per game down that Higbee stretch in 2019, but I am concerned that the high volume targets to Kupp that we enjoyed in years past will not be a regular happening going forward.

And finally, watching Leonard Fournette in Tampa, I think it's going to be hard for Arians not to give him more carries after a 100 yard day with two scores on 12 touches. Still think RoJo is rosterable in 12 team leagues or deeper, but I don't know how you can play him now. If you need help at RB, you might try to acquire Fournette while his value is still perhaps a little lower, because I think soon he'll have a stranglehold on the touches in that backfield.