2020 Analytics Survey by ESPN

I addressed you because I know you from other discussions to be a capable and well meaning person.

Over the years we have had several long lasting repetitive impossible circle jerks on the board. This one is closer to the 25th than the first

Sometimes a circle of ordinarily contributing posters gets stuck on an otherwise good subject and by the time the scar tissue gets hardened into certainty and then the ash heap of exhaustion the subject is a third rail and some posters leave us.

Im not learning anything about analytics from these threads and I know you are not as well. They are now scorecards of people with imperfect memory about what they wrote and how it was perceived but good memory that surely they were right and well intentioned

Mara's words as the Dave's legacy going on for a long time. I think what John wants to do is pass it off to Abrams with Judge being the big voice for football matters. What he does not want is having to blow the whole thing up. If we can accept that Dave's early decisions were based on the Eli mandate I think it is pretty clear the team is making progress with some bumps along the way.

The OL and D is on its way with more football players overall on the roster. We have better coaching. It is now up to first Jones and secondly Judge to take the next steps imo. Analytics can be a part of the overall best practices but talent, toughness and intelligence will bring the next Lombardi.

You post some good thoughts .mcl on the board. I hope you continue.

Line of Scrimage. I liked it.

And yes...please stay with it McL.

In comment 14984211 Lines of Scrimmage said:

Quote:

Mara's words as the Dave's legacy going on for a long time. I think what John wants to do is pass it off to Abrams with Judge being the big voice for football matters. What he does not want is having to blow the whole thing up. If we can accept that Dave's early decisions were based on the Eli mandate I think it is pretty clear the team is making progress with some bumps along the way.

No issue with me there on the Eli mandate. I have always subscribed.

We sort of kicked your Judge thoughts around the other day. The only real way to give Judge that consolidated football power is to trust him with both hats - HC and GM; and keep Abrams as the cap guru/VP of PP. That's essentially the role New England has with Caserio.

My guess is Judge isn't in the same realm as KA with the cap management and KA really isn't the football evaluator that Judge is. So create a new management structure.

Alas, I think that's only a pipe dream. But if it were to happen it would show a real willingness to change.

whenever DG moves on I expect them to bring in a former NE pro personnel guy who meshes with Judge's philosophy. I think there was a rumor about an AGM currently in Tennessee not that long ago and something like that makes a lot of sense to me.

Abrams is a cap guy. Tannenbaum is basically the only GM archetype there right? If an internal guy got the bump I'd bet on Pettit before Abrams. But assuming Judge is the right coach someone he is familiar with before both.

In comment 14984169 .McL. said:

Quote:

Thank you christian for an excellent post which jives with my comment about NGD's intent. As you said it's a matter of what checks the box for you. Part of the problem is that we don't share a common language to explain the specific boxes we want checked. So no matter how much some folks try to explain what they want to see from analytics, there is always somebody pointing out that the team is using analytics in some other form... And it goes on for years with people talking past each other.

Reminds me of the old UPS ad campaign on Logistics. Everyone is running around doing different stuff, and the voice is over is “That’s Logistics.”

All of it’s analytics. Even when you don’t call it that.

Analysis isn’t the outcome, it’s one of the steps.

haven't been good enough. And we can put DG near the center of this blame. You don't need to know exactly how something is working to be able to assess if it is up to snuff or not.

Now in the spirit of being as purely factual as possible here are fairly clear reasons that I will again state to very fairly question the ability of anyone at the top of the Giants organization to understand how to implement and apply analytics effectively.

1) Picking Barkley 2nd and mocking analytics, not displaying an understanding of positional value. You can talk about the systems DG built all you want, and the quality of what he's building in NY and yes, the best systems take time to build. But this isn't something you have to build, this is widely agreed upon math that people believe the data speaks to so obviously it has become common knowledge to a point a reporter asked about it but DG and the Giants still ignored it. And I want to be very clear, this isn't saying RBs are worthless, this is saying #2 is extremely high for them. And as much as people point to Elliot as a comp, the different between 2 and 4 is the #21st pick in the draft. That's a big difference and my opinion of Saquon at 4 would be different, way different if it involved a trade down. You can say don't get too cute, but Nelson, Chubb, Denzel Ward and extra picks would also have been more than fine.

2) DG never trading down. And trading up for Baker, trading valuable draft picks for LW as an impending FA in a lost year. There again is tons of research and any mathematical approach would point to these being bad moves. Especially when your team has as many holes as the Giants you need more draft picks. I'm not going to go looking but I think DG said as much. You look at the team right now and it is clear we needed a lot more bites at the apple.

If you are going to reject conventional wisdom you have to be right. Nothing wrong with having confidence and thinking you know and see things others don't but you need to back that up. Based on them bucking generally agreed upon analytical conclusions of other football researchers either their systems are producing lower quality information / bad conclusions or leaders are getting good information that they are willfully ignoring. Neither are at all what you want.

DG and Ty Siam / Abrams experience both come into play here. If these systems they are all building are quality how come they miss obvious things that other teams seem to understand? Isn't it fair to say in light of the performance without even strong evidence to point to that there are things other teams understand better than the Giants? Siam and Abrams have seemingly been in charge of the Giants operation for 5 years, a really bad 5 years for the team.

That's where DG misusing outlier comes into play for me. DG had two years to sit on and discuss the Barkley pick and before this season he doubled down that he was an outlier. Walking around validating his decision to draft Barkley by calling him an outlier, he is misusing a mathematical term. And if he could sit in reasoning like that it's fair to question how well people could understand how to apply more advanced mathematical concepts than that.

Does anyone know exactly what is going on in the building? No. And unlike Fats I've come forward and apologized for lacking grace in these discussions at times.

But to bring it to relevance today, Fats started to make outlandish claims of me being fraudulent in my career. I sent my resume to the mods to sort it out. He went way too far. We were asked to stay away from each other. I complied. He has not stopped trying to bait me for one day. He follows me around, jabs at almost every one of my posts. I like McL ignored him for a while because I was asked to do that and will go back to doing so. But it honestly feels like all the board policing doesn't apply to him. It would be nice if someone could actually get him to stop constantly trying to bait me. All this talk of the board policing itself but him just trying to bait people just gets tolerated on an ongoing basis. I can only be poked so many times.

Fats came onto this thread looking for a fight. Cherry picking the one team with a one losing record from the top 8 to try to play down the value of advanced analytics. You bill have also played down the value. But as I said earlier in the thread 5/6 superbowl contenders the last 3 years are higher on that list. Those teams are 70 games over .500 or league average in the last two years. Perhaps they are more valuable than a lot of people give them credit for?

Surveys aren't perfect but they are information. Those in analytics tend to really care about data sets and information accuracy so not only should surveys not be disregarded, this pool, who deals in data would probably take it more seriously. It's a small sample no doubt but does that mean it's worthless? Absolutely not.

Also linking the original thread and echo McL. My goal is to always be helpful, insightful, kind. I'm coming at this with frustration, I'll concede that. But I just want the Giants to be better and at the end of the day I think that gets lost sometimes. I wouldn't have said word 1 about any of this if the Giants didn't look so lost on some of this stuff. Fats often comes into these arguments in incredibly bad faith and honestly I was completely taken aback when he came at me like that. Most of the time if I start talking about the work I've done I get the opposite response I got from him, which was more disrespect and vitriol, I'll admit to being ill prepared for that and knocked off kilter. But anyone that reads the original thread I posted below my overarching points are very clear. There was mounting evidence that the Giants weren't committing to innovation and modernizing like other teams and I was concerned.

English Alaister who seems to love to point out how complex the game is and I'd agree with that. But more and more complex systems have seen advanced analytics add value as the years pass. These problems are all solved by employing people with much higher technical capabilities than the Giants seem to have in the building. You can't have it both ways, either acknowledge the complexity and hire a CTO, make a real commitment, or just pretend you can plod your way to a solution with lesser talent, you can't have both. People say EA has ties to the team as well. This quote was from 2018.

Quote:

I think this roster is ill equipped for today's NFL. The organisation is not. Trust DG. He won't let you down and certainly not in the manner you suggest.

I'm personally tired of people propping up the competence of people in the Giants organization. Let's see them gather a competent NFL roster and we can have a whole thread about how great everyone is. BTW for all the talk of me overstating things, I'd just like to leave how I entered the thread before I started getting attacked

Quote:

I was upset at the time of the Gettleman hire NoGainDayne : 10/1/2018 3:20 pm : link and even more pissed off now. While other teams are moving their analytics and technology programs forward we hired a guy stuck in the past who barely changed the staff. We haven't done anything to show we can compete in a fast modernizing NFL. I started to root against the Giants winning last year because I wanted them to clean house. I might be there again already. This team isn't going to the playoffs and I fear the only way ownership might actually accept the reality that they need a new leader is one or two years more of horrible play. Honestly I might be willing to stomach that if we can actually get a lick of innovation in the building.

I hit the nail on the head right there honestly and in no way shape or form did I deserve to get talked to the way I ended up getting talked to. It seems like when anyone is defending the Giants they can be as big of an asshole as they want but anyone bringing critiques are expected to act in the highest honor and decorum. That's difficult when you go to as many games as I do, spend time, money, wait in line for that train in the crowds to go home and watch them put a truly pathetic product on the field. Then come to the board and in your own way try to do something about that problem and have some unhinged asshole constantly trying to bait you into fights and play dirty. And again, I'm the ONLY one that has made public apologies for my behavior, and you bill sit here and tell us that it's us that don't want our points challenged? No, I just don't like to be berated, insulted, followed around when the last thing I'm coming here to do is interact with him. It would be nice if you bill could at least get him to step up and apologize for his behavior. I'm guessing he has 20-30 years on me but he gets treated with these kid gloves.
Original Thread of Fats Never-Ending Vendetta Against Me - ( New Window )

Is this perception among zealots that it solves all problems. It’s still a small part of the picture of a winning football organization. Analytics are only as good as the data goes in and there is so much change that goes into football year to year (see MUCH less penalties this year) we will need to rely on people for a long time.

I keep hearing it from the RB standpoint. The game takes time to develop players to what the NFL is looking for. This group of running backs currently are as talented as any since running the football was the priority. So any past numbers are moot because to compare these RBs before 2017 or so it’s night and day. These guys are absolute weapons out in space and can catch the ball. Even someone like Derrick Henry can catch now. Where as if he played 10 years ago he’d still have hands of stone

In comment 14984211 Lines of Scrimmage said:

Quote:

Mara's words as the Dave's legacy going on for a long time. I think what John wants to do is pass it off to Abrams with Judge being the big voice for football matters. What he does not want is having to blow the whole thing up. If we can accept that Dave's early decisions were based on the Eli mandate I think it is pretty clear the team is making progress with some bumps along the way. The OL and D is on its way with more football players overall on the roster. We have better coaching. It is now up to first Jones and secondly Judge to take the next steps imo. Analytics can be a part of the overall best practices but talent, toughness and intelligence will bring the next Lombardi. You post some good thoughts .mcl on the board. I hope you continue.

This is such a fantastic post. It’s a point I’ve tried to articulate as well. The prior two head coaches who were hired (McAdoo & Shurmur) were both hired in hopes of reinvigorating Eli’s career. From all reports, Eli & Beckham pushed for McAdoo after Coughlin “retired”. Shurmur wasn’t an inspiring choice, but Mara seeing what he did with Minnesota and Keenum, likely gave him hope he could do the same with NYG. Remember, they were a season separated from 11-5 at that point.

All of that failed miserably, no excuses. But, the rebuild started legitimately once Daniel Jones was drafted. Eli started the first two weeks, and then the keys got handed to Daniel Jones.

Mara hires a program builder who is only 38 to align with a young, impressionable team. Gettleman drafts the hopeful OLT of the future to pair with the hopeful future QB.

At this point, starting all over doesn’t make sense. That would be premature. Need to see more from Jones and see how these young players develop.

Based on above, the new GM should have a common philosophy with Judge. I’m sure Mara hopes for that to be Abrams. He’s been involved in the interviews and took on a greater media responsibility this past offseason.

In comment 14984254 Zeke's Alibi said:

Quote:

Is this perception among zealots that it solves all problems. It’s still a small part of the picture of a winning football organization. Analytics are only as good as the data goes in and there is so much change that goes into football year to year (see MUCH less penalties this year) we will need to rely on people for a long time. I keep hearing it from the RB standpoint. The game takes time to develop players to what the NFL is looking for. This group of running backs currently are as talented as any since running the football was the priority. So any past numbers are moot because to compare these RBs before 2017 or so it’s night and day. These guys are absolute weapons out in space and can catch the ball. Even someone like Derrick Henry can catch now. Where as if he played 10 years ago he’d still have hands of stone

See the article below, I'd say Analytics are a huge part in what the Ravens do and it looks like it's working...
The Baltimore Ravens Fell Short of the Super Bowl, but Their NFL Analytics Revolution Is Just Beginning - ( New Window )

advantage by building a talented unique roster around a unique QB. They are competently coached and have a tremendous scouting department. The Steelers have similar success because they find players that fit what they do as an organization that aren’t as valued elsewhere.

But it’s totally all the analytics. Remember this is a front office and coaching staff that won Superbowls with Flacco and Dilfer as QB.

Try to assemble a talented roster?

Seems like analytics are being leveraged to gain an advantage, which can't be underrated.

Also, don't you think part of them picking Lamar Jackson was a plan to use him in line with this strategy?

What about the 49ers quickly modernizing and using team construction analytics to shape their roster? They made a huge commitment and completely changed the direction of their team.

Most importantly you are nit picking and separating, when teams make a big commitment to is you can't say well they just pick talent well and that's the important thing. It's inextricably linked to that process. And teams with large commitments overall seem to be doing very well.

In comment 14984262 NoGainDayne said:

Quote:

Try to assemble a talented roster? Seems like analytics are being leveraged to gain an advantage, which can't be underrated. Also, don't you think part of them picking Lamar Jackson was a plan to use him in line with this strategy? What about the 49ers quickly modernizing and using team construction analytics to shape their roster? They made a huge commitment and completely changed the direction of their team. Most importantly you are nit picking and separating, when teams make a big commitment to is you can't say well they just pick talent well and that's the important thing. It's inextricably linked to that process. And teams with large commitments overall seem to be doing very well.

I absolutely do think that picking Lamar Jackson was part of this strategy. It's why they jumped into the first to grab him. I actually don't think you see them give him a giant long term second contract. I think they run him into the ground and franchise tag him twice. Unless he someone manages to stay healthy, then you might see a deal.

Picking talent well is the important thing. Using analytics to help with strategy or ingame decision making is one thing, but picking talent and coaching are far and away the two most important things.

In comment 14984259 Zeke's Alibi said:

Quote:

advantage by building a talented unique roster around a unique QB. They are competently coached and have a tremendous scouting department. The Steelers have similar success because they find players that fit what they do as an organization that aren’t as valued elsewhere. But it’s totally all the analytics. Remember this is a front office and coaching staff that won Superbowls with Flacco and Dilfer as QB.

There’s a school of thought that better data analysis leads to better scouting, value-based roster building, and finding passed over gems like Lamar Jackson.

they are leveraging advanced analytics to pick talent and getting the maximum leverage of that talent in game through real time data points.

How can you not say it's a big part of their success?

They have sucked because our identity as a football orginzation all starts with the HEAD COACH. He's the one that builds the program and identity. We give our head coaches a lot of power. This is why it never made sense to me that we went McAdoo and then followed it up with Shurmur. These guys are coordinators, not program builders.

This is why we as fans should have hope. I get why people are pessimistic, but the Giants went out of their comfort zone and grabbed who they thought was the most impressive program builder, even though he was only a special teams coach. Jints Central those old fogies!

If you don't come away impressed with Judge as a guy that gets it, don't know what to tell you. And that's why all this talk about DG is silly at the end of the day. This is going to be Judge's show and it's been obvious since day 1 with the moves he's made. You are also going to see a very long leash, and I'm sure there will be people calling for his firing after 5 wins this year which would be the biggest mistake.

In comment 14984269 NoGainDayne said:

Quote:

they are leveraging advanced analytics to pick talent and getting the maximum leverage of that talent in game through real time data points. How can you not say it's a big part of their success?

Theyve had massive success BEFORE the analytics. It's the people making the decisions, not the data. I'm sure they use it to help in their decision making process, but who isn't at this point. That's why it's an asinine argument.

And it's even more asinine when you consider the fact they haven't even made a Superbowl yet. Although it's hard to believe this won't be the year. But what if Lamar gets hurt? I mean he's not a pocket passer and we all know what the "analytics" says happens to running QBs. Is that a failure of the analytics?

tell me he will be) at least that brought in someone that fits the profile of what has made this organization successful. And on the grand scheme of things that's exactly what this orginization has been. The key for us is always going to be getting the head coach right. The Steelers and Ravens build their success off of their front office, not their head coaches. There's different ways it can be done.

they also took Hayden Hurst 6 picks ahead of him.

That's not to throw cold water on them - they and Steelers by and large have been excellent drafting teams for the last 2.5 decades (when the closest thing to "analytics" as described in this thread was Buschbaum's draft guide). Those 2 orgs are probably the 2 best off the top of my head, even ahead of the Pats. Ogden, Lewis, Reed, Ngata, Lamar, Stanley, Yanda. Ben, AB, Shazier, Polamalu, Watt, Bell, Decastro, Faneca etc. Multiple guys with legitimate OPOY & DPOY/HOF resumes. Compare that to this org (and most others) and we've basically got what Eli and Snee? Maybe Tiki/Osi?

they also each hit it out of the park with their current head coaches which has allowed them tremendous stability (though each of those fanbases had frustrations along the way, even Harbough was on the hot seat a few years ago).

Through 3 different GM regimes we haven't been as good in either area, though we've been better in both areas than probably 2/3's of the league (which is why Coughlin won 2 SB's and Fassel went to 1). No need to overcomplicate with buzzwords and overly wrought narratives - those 2 exceptionally smart organizations have continued to behave smartly as technology and information has taken leaps forward. Correlation and causation be damned.

Lines of Scrimmage's post is on target and tidy. In year 3 the OL and defense look to be going in the right direction. I have been a fan of Jones since the days he was worse than Ryan Finley and I like what I've seen from Judge. I'm less concerned with processes we know little about than I am the decisions they've actually made, a good number of which look a lot smarter than the hot takes at the time they were made (Darnold, OBJ, Jones, etc).

granted I did not read for more than one time and could have missed a bunch but this is what I gathered:

You and or you and McL went to the mods? ( dont want an answer)

They advised you to solve the problem by not engaging on this subject? ( dont really want an answer)

So you do that and it works

Then you dont. And it doesnt work. for the 99th time.

Who's zooming who?

How important to you is it to solve this problem? Do you really want to solve it or keep trying to gain an un-achievable emotional victory? Which draws you? The drama or the subject? I can only say by observation it feels like the former. Im sure you think its the later. Us outsiders deserve accurate fact based discussion or the right to disagree with what is just a speculative opinion. Are we as free as you are to point that out?

It doesnt matter how it started or who is more right about a thin slice of unknowable salami. Now its a merry go round of unresolvable injured feelings while you and McL have good lives to live.

Which takes the analytically sound application of time and energy.

BTW, I think EA's point was not about "complexity" as in lots of variables ( easy to solve as you said) as much as complexity driven by wide wide confidence levels that leave decision makers un convinced of their applicability ( for example, in a specific 22 player game situation on a wet field at 32 degrees when the carpet is badly worn and its mid way into the 3rd Q) when sample sizes of input variables are not the same.

Imo, good science but bad applications. are their good applications for data driven facts and probabilities? Of course.

You and I disagree on the degree talent prediction models lend themselves to greater assessments as compared to in person exposure with sharp questioning and listening...but those are opinions we can and have to hold without diminishing the opinion of the other - for both positions are unprovable.

imo.

Take Care NGD

I said so here in the months leading up to that draft. Jackson was a better runner in college than Barkley was, and he has been in the NFL as well. And he's a better passer than Jones was in college, and is again in the NFL. Jackson was CLEARLY the best player in college football. It was a bias against running quarterbacks that caused him to drop in the draft. I think that wall has been broken down.

In comment 14984285 Go Terps said:

Quote:

I said so here in the months leading up to that draft. Jackson was a better runner in college than Barkley was, and he has been in the NFL as well. And he's a better passer than Jones was in college, and is again in the NFL. Jackson was CLEARLY the best player in college football. It was a bias against running quarterbacks that caused him to drop in the draft. I think that wall has been broken down.

I don't doubt that was your preference and I do recall some who felt that way. But nobody in the league felt that way, including the Ravens. All of the professionals missed that evaluation in one way or another so it's a weird example to use to hold up as an example of next level genius.

I watch a lot of ACC (and CFB in general) and my assessment of all the QB's that year was that they all had significant pros and cons. And QB is the hardest position to arm chair from the sidelines because so much is between the ears. None were no-brainers but all of them had enough talent to make people who passed on them look stupid. Most arm chair QB's seemed to take the field which is a luxury untethered to reality.

I'd also throw a little cold water on the notion that Lamar Jackson is Pat Mahomes or Russell Wilson. In fantasy football yes, in the NFL playoffs not yet.

You did say that loud and clear.

And you were 100% right on that-so far

( I think its somewhat unfair to use injury risk as a reason to not take a chance on greatness. After all, every NFL player who can get badly injured. In other words, all of them).

Rodgers, Tarkington, Wilson, Staubach, Elway, McNair, Cunningham and Young all could run and did - yet had long and winning NFL careers. So there are more than enough examples of success to offset the failures of running QB

In comment 14984303 Bill2 said:

Quote:

You did say that loud and clear. And you were 100% right on that-so far ( I think its somewhat unfair to use injury risk as a reason to not take a chance on greatness. After all, every NFL player who can get badly injured. In other words, all of them). Rodgers, Tarkington, Wilson, Staubach, Elway, McNair, Cunningham and Young all could run and did - yet had long and winning NFL careers. So there are more than enough examples of success to offset the failures of running QB

jmo but I think he fell for 2 reasons:

1) recency bias because he gave GM's flashbacks to RG3. Same build, same insane CFB production, except Lamar was more of a runner which probably made it feel like a greater injury risk
2) it was a heavy QB draft someone was going to fall.

I still don't think the RG3 comp was totally incorrect btw, RG3 was Lamar until he tore his knee up. He made a pro bowl and led the Skins to a 9-6 record as a rookie completing 65% of his passes. Injury is a real risk for any player attempting 150+ rushes more than other players at the position. Lamar ended up the ultimate lotto ticket but I can understand why there weren't any GM's willing to stake their careers on it.

In comment 14984285 Go Terps said:

Quote:

I said so here in the months leading up to that draft. Jackson was a better runner in college than Barkley was, and he has been in the NFL as well. And he's a better passer than Jones was in college, and is again in the NFL. Jackson was CLEARLY the best player in college football. It was a bias against running quarterbacks that caused him to drop in the draft. I think that wall has been broken down.

I recall the mom possibly getting involved in contract talks was a turn-off...? No?

In comment 14984308 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

jmo but I think he fell for 2 reasons: 1) recency bias because he gave GM's flashbacks to RG3. Same build, same insane CFB production, except Lamar was more of a runner which probably made it feel like a greater injury risk 2) it was a heavy QB draft someone was going to fall. I still don't think the RG3 comp was totally incorrect btw, RG3 was Lamar until he tore his knee up. He made a pro bowl and led the Skins to a 9-6 record as a rookie completing 65% of his passes. Injury is a real risk for any player attempting 150+ rushes more than other players at the position. Lamar ended up the ultimate lotto ticket but I can understand why there weren't any GM's willing to stake their careers on it.

LJax, and let's be honest here, fell into the right situation with the Ravens. Talk about serendipity...

The guy who build the 9ers offense around Kaepernick, Greg Roman, just happened to be the OC in Baltimore. And to their everlasting credit, particularly Harbaugh, they went all in and built a team and structure completely around LJax.

In comment 14984303 Bill2 said:

Quote:

You did say that loud and clear. And you were 100% right on that-so far

Like I just said to Eric, there was a real crisscrossing of good fortune with LJax ending up in Baltimore.

Outside of New England and their mad scientist, BB, I really know if LJax would actually work as well anywhere else...(maybe KC)...

I don't really know...

In comment 14984309 bw in dc said:

Quote:

In comment 14984285 Go Terps said: Quote: I said so here in the months leading up to that draft. Jackson was a better runner in college than Barkley was, and he has been in the NFL as well. And he's a better passer than Jones was in college, and is again in the NFL. Jackson was CLEARLY the best player in college football. It was a bias against running quarterbacks that caused him to drop in the draft. I think that wall has been broken down. I recall the mom possibly getting involved in contract talks was a turn-off...? No?

you are correct - he'd also refused to do anything at the combine other than passing drills and did poorly on the wonderlic. That's what makes it hard put yourself in the GM's shoes who had access to talk to him throughout that process - maybe it was much about nothing, maybe he didn't come off well.

Even the Ravens - it's not like they fell in love with the guy and did what Andy Reid did to get Mahomes. They drafted a mediocre TE ahead of him and then traded up for him after the fact giving with their 2nd and the next year's 2nd. He was drafted as a lotto ticket more than franchise QB.
Lamar Jackson, His Mother, and the Plan They’ve Always Had - ( New Window )

he has ended up in a perfect situation. Great OL, great running game to compliment, great defense, great coaching. Similar to Mahomes.

This may be a strange point but I think there's a case to be made that what Watson has done is more impressive given the situation he's been in and his injury. His slide was the most inexplicable to me. How anyone watched him battle Bama and passed on him makes no sense.

In comment 14984309 bw in dc said:

Quote:

In comment 14984285 Go Terps said: Quote: I said so here in the months leading up to that draft. Jackson was a better runner in college than Barkley was, and he has been in the NFL as well. And he's a better passer than Jones was in college, and is again in the NFL. Jackson was CLEARLY the best player in college football. It was a bias against running quarterbacks that caused him to drop in the draft. I think that wall has been broken down. I recall the mom possibly getting involved in contract talks was a turn-off...? No?

That was my one hangup, and it's the sort of thing the teams could sort out in interviews. Once that was cleared as a non-issue, picking anyone in that draft over Jackson didn't make sense.

And yeah he hasn't won a playoff game, but that's coming. If we're judging him on that, how do we judge Bailey and Jones?

Whatever. Mara/Gettleman bungled that off-season like they've bungled everything else. And now the team is a joke.

.

In comment 14984315 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

he has ended up in a perfect situation. Great OL, great running game to compliment, great defense, great coaching. Similar to Mahomes. This may be a strange point but I think there's a case to be made that what Watson has done is more impressive given the situation he's been in and his injury. His slide was the most inexplicable to me. How anyone watched him battle Bama and passed on him makes no sense.

That is such a good point about Watson. He was THE STEAL of the 2017 draft. His resume at Clemson was sensational, especially in big games. To think, the Bears traded up for Trubisky...

Further, it is absolutely true he has done much more with less in Houston. Some very shaky OLs, tons of injuries to his offensive weapons, and questionable coaching.

Some of his comebacks have been epic...

Listen, I liked LJax, too. We kicked that around at the time. But I just couldn't get my arms around investing a top five pick. I loved him in the second round.

In hindsight, you are absolutely right - he would look a lot better in blue than Barkley and Jones.

Assuming, of course, the brass had the foresight to see the immense upside...

Not their style.

.

fats and I were asked to steer clear of each other and I was the only one who respected that.

He kept poking me continuously even when I ignored him and I got sick of it again. Like McL I don't go around looking for fights but if ignoring isn't working, I'll hit back and not back down. Especially him coming to this thread just to be combative and make what was a pretty dumb comment when he is supposedly this righteous fighter of the stupid.

I said complexity even if EA did not. The softer sciences, the chemistry of a team, there are ways to integrate these variables into already strong models to learn more about even how you examine those variables yourself. I don't think talent prediction models lend themselves better to forecasting outcomes. Beyond more tangible things I talk about the importance of someone's energy all the time. But strong, advanced numerical analysis buttressing a qualitative analysis is by far the best. And I think the Giants very clearly thought themselves smarter than conventional analytical wisdom, which IMO is dangerous thinking that should have been well beyond an organization in 2018.

The feedback loop between predictions and decisions is vital, the human interacting with the advanced technology, comparing conclusions, both systems improve from each other. It seems like the coaches are really buying into this from what you've told us, which is great. What scares me is the Giants seem to continually be contrite and apologetic in public and then confident privately. It’s been said to me directly by someone in the Giants inner circle that people that don’t believe in DG to lead us forward even after all this are “idiots.” I don't understand the continued overconfidence in their own people. There is a disconnect and a scary one at that for the future of our team. I'm left with these questions.

1. Do think they are genuinely interested in bringing in a GM from outside the Giants family if this period of futility continues?

2. How much can you really expect someone that mocked analytics and publicly misuses mathematical terminology to usher in comprehensive integration of new technology in team construction decisions?

3. At what point do you say that maybe part of the problem of not being able to leverage analytics as well as the top teams has to do with the technical qualifications and experience of the person leading the operation?

In comment 14984336 Go Terps said:

Quote:

Not their style.

Definitely not their prototype.

Keep this name in mind for this upcoming draft - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State. Not quite as dynamic as LJax, but there are some interesting skills...

just like there are 23 teams who passed on Aaron Rodgers and 32 who passed on Tom Brady 5x or more. Not all of them were clueless backwards thinking losers. And 32 that passed on Russell Wilson at least once.

I'm in no way disputing that you (Go Terps) wanted Jackson, just that it wasn't the no brainer it now is with the benefit of hindsight. As most things aren't. Especially when it comes to QBs in the draft.

In comment 14984343 bw in dc said:

Quote:

In comment 14984336 Go Terps said: Quote: Not their style. Definitely not their prototype. Keep this name in mind for this upcoming draft - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State. Not quite as dynamic as LJax, but there are some interesting skills...

Way ahead of you. Looks very interesting. The way things look now with Jones, I'm ready to look elsewhere. His problems aren't the type that get better.

No hindsight here. I said it in February of that year: he is the best player in that draft.

Jax was Terps' guy. He was touting him months before the draft. He was really all in.

I was interested, too, but more in round two.

just pointing out it wasn't just the NYG who disagreed with it - it was the entirely NFL, including the Ravens, who chose Hurst over Jackson 7 picks prior.

There wasn't a team in the NFL who treated him like a franchise QB including the team that drafted him.

but I think part of what good teams do is understand the stars are great as last pieces.

You build through the lines, I mean everyone says this all the time, DG said it. I'm not sure the Giants should have taken LJax at 2. Although perhaps him and OBJ together changes the direction of OBJ's career. But no one can honestly say what he would looks like without people ready to scheme around his talents, with a bad offensive line, etc. Much safer team construction and long term win probability boosting to be 100% sure you have the lines right first.

Terps was 100% right about him and I can also confirm he was all over it, like I'd say pretty early in the college season before the draft if I'm remembering the timing correctly.

Ender team in the NFL was wrong, in large part because of a bias against running quarterbacks. I think Jackson, Murray, and a few others have put that foolishness in the museum where it belongs.

.

if the coach can't see how to use someone and they fall.

IMO coach, GM, whatever, some don't understand how to leverage these players hence the divergent value system. (Many teams probably scoffed at Murray being taken too)

And I think Kliff Kingsbury took the job specifically to work with Murray.

You could say coaches should be able to properly use these players but i'd say the fact that they fall is probably an indication that they can't.

The EA points are good ones. All sorts of good analysis have a hard core and then soft variable factor analysis.

I know nothing of the side swirl with the mods. All I know is that its another sign the subject is kind of toxic due to the accumulation of past scars. So maybe the mods proposal could work if all actually followed it. No one likes to see posters jammed up. I know when I first came here if I said something without a basis FMIC was only one ( and a mild one at that) of a pretty hard boiled crew trying to drive out commentary without knowledge.

As for right now...what we know is actually less than we used to know about the Giants and analytics.

Too too much speculation. We know Judge and Graham are very active and demanding analytic hounds and we know much greater efforts are being made. We know Judge schedules an hour each day ( six days a week and the time allotted goes up during the season) just on the subject of improving the integration of analytics into the different processes. How long it takes, who internally and externally is involved is unknown that I know of. But watch Judges post game 3 play breakdowns....think that can be done with out rigorous data driven play analysis and pre game preparation?

Think the by and large ( not all) sensible contract structures we saw off season happens without someone re-examining prior assumptions the organization made about ways to maximize talent acquisition optionality and the cap?

Lots of signs of greater organizational QC if you look for them

Meanwhile, I have never known analytics to make a big difference until an organizations daily front line execution level, front line talent pool and front line ( Competitive market facing jobs) development processes are roughly competitive to the competition.

imo, then it can be an additional lift off from there ( so can an infusion of cash or better cap/debt management) so its a thing they should be working hard to upgrade so its there when we get better, but to me, does not explain the past few years of track record.

This was always going to be a year when any upwards signs are hard to find. It takes most teams five years to recover from the loss of a franchise QB. Lets say Eli started to slip long enough ago that replacement optionality was GM Job 1. If that was done even two obvious years ago then we could have a shot at a seamless transition by this year or next year.

That and cap management going into a transition period was Job 2. Draft is always Job 3. If we got even those two of those jobs right and well timed we'd be better off even if we couldn't spell data.

imo

To me this is why drafting even Darnold would have been preferable to Barkley:

"Lets say Eli started to slip long enough ago that replacement optionality was GM Job 1. If that was done even two obvious years ago then we could have a shot at a seamless transition by this year or next year."