2020 Analytics Survey by ESPN

I meant the critique to aim for 2015-2016.

Anyone who has watched the NFL knows that except for celebrated statistical outliers, Qbs of 34 start to drop off and many quite quickly after 36.

So in 2017, Eli hits the normal window of decline. You want at least 2 years of experience before that. You want 1-2 years drafting a sure number 2 thats able to be a mid range Qb until you find a franchise player if not hope your draftee is the next franchise Qb.

The other way of doing it is to have the cap room to overpay one of the top 5 back up Qbs

Having a qb controversy would have been preferable to watching the slow decline of a guy with no plan in place.

You also want max flexibility of cap as you enter the qb decline window.

The only prep Mara and Reese and Ross did was try to have a new OL in place in front of the decline and during it. In that chore, there were many talent failures, coaching development misses and asshole (or four) draftees.

But they also did not go into full aggressive mode in 2011 when it was obvious the old OL had to be replaced from left to right.

Mistakes and luck all are part of the mix you cannot do much about but not moving at franchise window speed for several years was pretending time and declines don't exist.

Ostrich behavior

Good post. The 2011 Super Bowl victory really fooled the Giants into thinking they still had a strong competitive window in place.

If Romo hits Austin in Dallas for that TD, there is a good chance that Coughlin is gone after that season. Incredibly, the Giants got hot and squeezed out another title out of the core.

The real problem came after 2012 though. The Giants started 6-2 that year, but that record included barely getting by Tampa Bay, a late TD by Cruz to get by WSH & surviving by a finger tip against Dallas.

The Giants got smoked by Cincy, Atlanta & Baltimore in the 2nd half of 2012 and went 3-5. The team was toast.

So, the fork in the road happens after the 2012 season and instead of entering a full rebuild, the Giants went all in with trying to win a Super Bowl on their own turf at MetLife. Remember, the Super Bowl clock in 2013?

Then you get a bunch of half measures:
-Replace Gilbride with McAdoo (2014)
-Replace Fewell with Spags (2015)
-Replace Coughlin with McAdoo (2016) *keep most of Coughlin’s staff
-Replace McAdoo & Reese with Shurmur & Gettleman (2018 - draft Saquon; keep Eli)
-Retain Eli in 2019

Everything above was shuffling around the deck chairs to try to win with Eli. None of that above was a rebuild, not even close. The first bold decision by this organization in recent years has been hiring a 38 year old Joe Judge. Not predictable, outside the box & a bold decision for once.

They have a young team with a young coach who seems to be a program builder. My hope is with Judge & I don’t buy the fact that it’s impossible to win with Mara, this is the first time they’ve truly committed to the rebuild.

You improved the thesis and got me to straighten out my timeliness.

They even had time to reconsider their approach h to a franchise qb replacement past the time it was evident...and did not

things clear here, NGD

Quote:

Got one thing wrong bill NoGainDayne : 9/25/2020 9:45 pm : link : reply fats and I were asked to steer clear of each other and I was the only one who respected that.

I was not asked to "steer clear" of anyone. You apparently went to the mods with a resume and you demanded that I stop questioning your qualifications. And as ridiculous as doing that was(as well as showing off the continued need you have to prove that you have competence), I was not told to stop interacting with you - only to not question your qualifications. Nothing about challenging shitty takes.

The other thing is I wasn't even addressing you on my initial post on this thread. I quoted and responded to jsuds about Coughlin using GPS. Then I agreed with the interesting observation that the analytic guys were taking a very non-analytic survey and applying it as if it were fact. Meanwhile, you responded to my comment to jsuds with aa comment to me "Idiot, I know facts and math aren't your strong suit"

So save us the revisionist history here. You should worry more about the fact that a grown man sent his resume to the mods.

I know it easy to blame Reese but I'm sure Mara was driving the train.

I'm actually ok with that. But by 2015, Eli was in decline and they had no choice but to keep plugging in players.

Eli was not getting cut or released. That was never gonna happen.

in these arguments. The time to draft a QB wasn't necessarily 2018, I'd make a better case for 2017 when 2 MVP level QBs fell to the point where teams were able to trade up to select both of them, and it was a perfect transitional year for a regime that should have seen the writing on the wall. To steal from their successors vernacular, that was the 1 time in the past 5 years they didn't need to shop hungry off the 11 win year.

But as with everything in the Reese/Ross era their evaluations and decisions sucked. Let me summarize with 3 simple examples from that offseason:

Brandon Marshall over Andrew Whitworth (who has publicly said he wanted to come here) as the "final piece".

Evan Engram over TJ Watt, Cam Robinson, Tredavious White, or Ryan Ramcyk or trading up for a QB (McAdoo was supposedly in love with Mahomes - who would have allowed them to continue to play Eli anyway since he was widely viewed as developmental).

Davis Webb rated high enough that they thought he could be a QB of the future.

The flawed processes that led to the flawed decisions like those from the 2012 draft - 2017 are the #1 reason why this franchise went off the road.

And the 2018-2020 drafts have been a positive course correction.

In comment 14984441 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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things clear here, NGD Quote: Got one thing wrong bill NoGainDayne : 9/25/2020 9:45 pm : link : reply fats and I were asked to steer clear of each other and I was the only one who respected that. I was not asked to "steer clear" of anyone. You apparently went to the mods with a resume and you demanded that I stop questioning your qualifications. And as ridiculous as doing that was(as well as showing off the continued need you have to prove that you have competence), I was not told to stop interacting with you - only to not question your qualifications. Nothing about challenging shitty takes. The other thing is I wasn't even addressing you on my initial post on this thread. I quoted and responded to jsuds about Coughlin using GPS. Then I agreed with the interesting observation that the analytic guys were taking a very non-analytic survey and applying it as if it were fact. Meanwhile, you responded to my comment to jsuds with aa comment to me "Idiot, I know facts and math aren't your strong suit" So save us the revisionist history here. You should worry more about the fact that a grown man sent his resume to the mods.

Wait, he actually went crying to the mods? Really? That’s quite childish, imo..Lawd.

at someone’s educational or career background on a football fan site. If that’s what happened.

That would really require a “Lord”.

In comment 14984506 LBH15 said:

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at someone’s educational or career background on a football fan site. If that’s what happened. That would really require a “Lord”.

No, sorry..You don’t go to a mod, unless someone’s used your real full name on the site when there’s a disagreement

knows NGD’s true identity unless he’s a mod or a close friend.

the very idea that he felt he had to go that route shows so little class.

In comment 14984445 GManinDC said:

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I know it easy to blame Reese but I'm sure Mara was driving the train.

It was clearly Mara. He’s basically called Eli his other son. And with the two improbable SBs trophies Eli helped put behind the glass display at Jints Central, Mara kept trying to go to the well one more time hoping they could stitch together enough of a team to produce Eli magic.

While that’s certainly an understandable desire, it made decision making more emotional than logical. They simply held on to Eli at least three years too long. When they should have cut bait in 2015 and called Caterpillar to get the heavy equipment to rebuild.

Instead, they kept chasing, dug a deeper hole, and got nothing out of it.

That was my major problem with the Gettleman hire. He was so desperate for the job he was willing to appease Mara by agreeing to the Eli Reclamation Project.

I’ve never liked Gettleman but he’s not stupid. So I refuse to believe he watched all of this Eli video from 2017 and concluded Eli still had gas in the tank. NFW. Which means his enabling has put us deeper in this ditch...

And if missed on Jones, we’ve lost another five years. At least.

to keep going. But he underestimated how much better a QB needed to be to win on this team. In the end, I agree he told Mara what he wanted to hear but I feel he got there on his own accord.

Dg also could have been a lot more affected by his illness and treatment.

Mara might have thought Reese was more of the problem not the wobbly direction of the franchise?

for keeping Eli. We had probably two future HOF's in TC and Eli. I find it interesting how they were both seen as to lose their fastball so to speak. The fastball lost was player selection.

I find the issue since 2012 has been the OL.that and we are still trying Eli may have declined but I bet if they had a good OL the results for both of them would be far different. Maybe the days of San Francisco NFCCG Eli were gone but something tells me he would have found a way to win a couple more big games.

Expecting a older QB to do more was the mistake imo. I do think TC contributed to the OL woes with too much loyalty to that 2005-11 core of players. Someone like BB would have cut bait on the older lineman who had been in decline.

get a fair eval on Eli because the offensive line was so bad and the supporting weapons around him were terrible. It really wasn't clear that Eli was done until the first year DG was here. His feet looked like he was in cement. Can't play QB like that unless you have a fortress in front of you.

Eli does so much that doesn't show up on the score sheet so it's understandable why you'd want to stick with that guy until he shows you he can't physically play anymore. Things change on the fly in the NFL. We course corrected fairly fast after that much was clear. Literally went full rebuilding mode in the middle of that season.

does lie at the feet of Mara. But that is because of two piss poor hires at the most important spot in the organization.

Mara panicked on McAdoo because he was a highly sought after offensive coordinator and the offense was coming off a good year. Then they decided to hire Shurmur in order to fix the offense with one last shot with Eli. There is an argument here that this is when we should have blown everything up. Bringing in a HC just to placate to your QB that may have a little left in the tank is a risky proposition and its clear that feelings got in the way of sound decision making here.

The way our orginization is structure we will always need a strong program bulder type and that's why I'm happy that all this nonsense seems to be in the rearview. The guys we were all looking at the HC job specialized in that.

In comment 14984518 Zeke's Alibi said:

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get a fair eval on Eli because the offensive line was so bad and the supporting weapons around him were terrible. It really wasn't clear that Eli was done until the first year DG was here. His feet looked like he was in cement. Can't play QB like that unless you have a fortress in front of you. Eli does so much that doesn't show up on the score sheet so it's understandable why you'd want to stick with that guy until he shows you he can't physically play anymore. Things change on the fly in the NFL. We course corrected fairly fast after that much was clear. Literally went full rebuilding mode in the middle of that season.

👍

In comment 14984518 Zeke's Alibi said:

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get a fair eval on Eli because the offensive line was so bad and the supporting weapons around him were terrible. It really wasn't clear that Eli was done until the first year DG was here. His feet looked like he was in cement. Can't play QB like that unless you have a fortress in front of you. Eli does so much that doesn't show up on the score sheet so it's understandable why you'd want to stick with that guy until he shows you he can't physically play anymore. Things change on the fly in the NFL. We course corrected fairly fast after that much was clear. Literally went full rebuilding mode in the middle of that season.

This might be a wild assertion, but if you swapped Eli and Ben right now and put Eli on that Steeler team I think they'd be just as much of a contender.

That doesn't excuse the way things were handled here across the board, the reality was that the team around him was far from that even in the mirage of 2016.

In comment 14984518 Zeke's Alibi said:

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get a fair eval on Eli because the offensive line was so bad and the supporting weapons around him were terrible. It really wasn't clear that Eli was done until the first year DG was here. His feet looked like he was in cement. Can't play QB like that unless you have a fortress in front of you. Eli does so much that doesn't show up on the score sheet so it's understandable why you'd want to stick with that guy until he shows you he can't physically play anymore. Things change on the fly in the NFL. We course corrected fairly fast after that much was clear. Literally went full rebuilding mode in the middle of that season.

Ugh. If you need a fortress and such better weapons that he most likely can’t be your guy any more either. Can’t have it both ways.

Imo, how Eli actually aged and lining up time for a fast decline post 36 years (ignoring nfl history on this in the right decision window is my critique not Eli's play.

They only prepared for a hopa-hopa outcome in a situation that is usually very trying for a franchise.

I also point out that Eli's durability is odds defying not franchise anchoring as age increases

In comment 14984533 Bill2 said:

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Imo, how Eli actually aged and lining up time for a fast decline post 36 years (ignoring nfl history on this in the right decision window is my critique not Eli's play. They only prepared for a hopa-hopa outcome in a situation that is usually very trying for a franchise. I also point out that Eli's durability is odds defying not franchise anchoring as age increases

That's certainly fair.

In comment 14984518 Zeke's Alibi said:

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get a fair eval on Eli because the offensive line was so bad and the supporting weapons around him were terrible. It really wasn't clear that Eli was done until the first year DG was here. His feet looked like he was in cement. Can't play QB like that unless you have a fortress in front of you. Eli does so much that doesn't show up on the score sheet so it's understandable why you'd want to stick with that guy until he shows you he can't physically play anymore. Things change on the fly in the NFL. We course corrected fairly fast after that much was clear. Literally went full rebuilding mode in the middle of that season.

It’s been the conventional wisdom for at least the last eight years that the college ranks just isn’t producing OLs that fit the more traditional game of a dropback QB. So thinking we could find enough OLs to suit Eli’s needs was a complete misunderstanding of the market. Which I think was another problem with the front office...

The league has/had shifted to mobile. QBs who could compensate with their legs with inadequate pass protection. So unless you had Tom Brady, and the genius of Scarnecchia and Belichick, total outliers, we simply weren’t going to find what Eli needed.

And if you want to talk the free agency market, the spend needed to solve the problem completely would have been a cap crusher...

In comment 14984515 LBH15 said:

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to keep going. But he underestimated how much better a QB needed to be to win on this team. In the end, I agree he told Mara what he wanted to hear but I feel he got there on his own accord.

Then that’s even worse...

If their decision was that Eli wasn't in steep decline, but only severely affected by surrounding cast (which is a fair point). Well, if it is both, then the team won't make qb shopping the priority it should be.

is undoubtedly DG would have signed a shitty expensive free agent QB to replace him.

In comment 14984543 LBH15 said:

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is undoubtedly DG would have signed a shitty expensive free agent QB to replace him.

I don't agree with that thinking since you are using the term "undoubtedly". I consider it an unknown. I also understand evidence could point us to the conclusion you pointed out, but I don't find it to be without doubt.

In comment 14984542 crick n NC said:

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If their decision was that Eli wasn't in steep decline, but only severely affected by surrounding cast (which is a fair point). Well, if it is both, then the team won't make qb shopping the priority it should be.

I think they may have felt he was in steep decline after firing Ben M. However, Mara/Tisch were roasted for the benching. Most of the writers, analysts etc. were blasting the Giants about how bad the team was around him. Former players were outraged. Mara even told Francessa he did not expect reaction to be so strong. I think that is when the mandate was decided (Eli finishing his contract). Let's give him PS, sign Solder, get another weapon (Barkley) and see if we can put a little better team for him. No way were they cutting him imo.

I agree with you Eric from Li about swapping QB's.

BW, it may be challenging finding lineman but I think what hurts is the CBA and the fact the Giants waited too long on the really good line they had. Snee, Mac, Sueb, Diehl all seemed to decline badly at the same time and then Beatty's injury did not help.

Broadly, there is plenty of good discussion to have on the topics of data and analysis. Broadly data and analysis are important and useful for football teams.

All decisions are made on information. Better information is better than bad or no information. Analyzing the difference, is ... the difference.

In a game where 1) health is typically the biggest determinant of success 2) the average margin of victory is less than one score 3) the difference of 1 net yard per play is an accurate indicator of being above or below .500 on the year — all the little things are big things.

Analysis in football won’t produce a binder like baseball. That’s OK, makes for a better game. No binders will be produced in the execution of the analysis, but the analysis is somewhere between very and critically important.

It’s a shame so many discussions on the topic digress into diatribes, histrionics, and worst among all outcomes the digital hall monitor act which is the lowest form of contribution to this community and a sham that shouldn’t be encouraged or revered.

As far as Manning, it was always simple. Did management feel in January of 2018 Manning could win a championship? That answers all questions around the qualifications of the principals involved.

In comment 14984555 Lines of Scrimmage said:

Quote:

In comment 14984542 crick n NC said: Quote: If their decision was that Eli wasn't in steep decline, but only severely affected by surrounding cast (which is a fair point). Well, if it is both, then the team won't make qb shopping the priority it should be. I think they may have felt he was in steep decline after firing Ben M. However, Mara/Tisch were roasted for the benching. Most of the writers, analysts etc. were blasting the Giants about how bad the team was around him. Former players were outraged. Mara even told Francessa he did not expect reaction to be so strong. I think that is when the mandate was decided (Eli finishing his contract). Let's give him PS, sign Solder, get another weapon (Barkley) and see if we can put a little better team for him. No way were they cutting him imo.

I think the thing that is consistently missed is the possibility of fans and former players being outraged how Eli was benched, not necessarily that he was benched.

Certainly that is probably part of it. I remember O'hara on NFL Network with Ross and he was killing him for the talent he was playing with. So for many I think it was more than just the how.

In comment 14984550 crick n NC said:

Quote:

In comment 14984543 LBH15 said: Quote: is undoubtedly DG would have signed a shitty expensive free agent QB to replace him. I don't agree with that thinking since you are using the term "undoubtedly". I consider it an unknown. I also understand evidence could point us to the conclusion you pointed out, but I don't find it to be without doubt.

Thanks for the post

In comment 14984541 bw in dc said:

Quote:

In comment 14984515 LBH15 said: Quote: to keep going. But he underestimated how much better a QB needed to be to win on this team. In the end, I agree he told Mara what he wanted to hear but I feel he got there on his own accord. Then that’s even worse...

Ya’ think?

Yes, the emotion or a team icon losing their job was high. What I meant by how Eli was benched was that there wasn't any real plan to transition from Eli. They signed Geno Smith, and drafted Davis Webb. I think had they put a real effort into acquiring a real talent at the position that was a legitimate possibility as the next franchise qb the kickback would have been far less severe. Now, I just foolishly claimed that the Giants didn't put a real effort into acquiring a legitimate replacement when I don't have any real evidence of that, I guess that comes naturally from me to assume. We did come to find out that Macadoo liked Mahomes, but I don't know if we got the details on the giants efforts to attempt to move up. Also, another mistake I just made is not taking into account the availability of legitimate replacements for Manning, which is something that should not be taken lightly, that unfortunately was taken lightly and sloppily put together which created a strong reaction.

In comment 14984563 LBH15 said:

Quote:

In comment 14984550 crick n NC said: Quote: In comment 14984543 LBH15 said: Quote: is undoubtedly DG would have signed a shitty expensive free agent QB to replace him. I don't agree with that thinking since you are using the term "undoubtedly". I consider it an unknown. I also understand evidence could point us to the conclusion you pointed out, but I don't find it to be without doubt. Thanks for the post

Considering your personality on here, I take that post as sarcasm.

Thx

Enough to make a sarcastic post

In comment 14984530 LBH15 said:

Quote:

In comment 14984518 Zeke's Alibi said: Quote: get a fair eval on Eli because the offensive line was so bad and the supporting weapons around him were terrible. It really wasn't clear that Eli was done until the first year DG was here. His feet looked like he was in cement. Can't play QB like that unless you have a fortress in front of you. Eli does so much that doesn't show up on the score sheet so it's understandable why you'd want to stick with that guy until he shows you he can't physically play anymore. Things change on the fly in the NFL. We course corrected fairly fast after that much was clear. Literally went full rebuilding mode in the middle of that season. Ugh. If you need a fortress and such better weapons that he most likely can’t be your guy any more either. Can’t have it both ways.

If you gave him a fortress he would have produced at a high level with garbage skill talent. Eli makes the run game and wrs look better than they are because of his ability to get into the right plays routes and protections. The point is that the offense was so bad as a whole, it was almost impossible to get a fair eval. The issue goes back to the front office and with their awful team building philosophy around their franchise QB.

In comment 14984589 Zeke's Alibi said:

Quote:

In comment 14984530 LBH15 said: Quote: In comment 14984518 Zeke's Alibi said: Quote: get a fair eval on Eli because the offensive line was so bad and the supporting weapons around him were terrible. It really wasn't clear that Eli was done until the first year DG was here. His feet looked like he was in cement. Can't play QB like that unless you have a fortress in front of you. Eli does so much that doesn't show up on the score sheet so it's understandable why you'd want to stick with that guy until he shows you he can't physically play anymore. Things change on the fly in the NFL. We course corrected fairly fast after that much was clear. Literally went full rebuilding mode in the middle of that season. Ugh. If you need a fortress and such better weapons that he most likely can’t be your guy any more either. Can’t have it both ways. If you gave him a fortress he would have produced at a high level with garbage skill talent. Eli makes the run game and wrs look better than they are because of his ability to get into the right plays routes and protections. The point is that the offense was so bad as a whole, it was almost impossible to get a fair eval. The issue goes back to the front office and with their awful team building philosophy around their franchise QB.

Zeke- He did make things look better. But that time had passed before 2018. No further evaluation was needed as was the case.

In comment 14984583 crick n NC said:

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Enough to make a sarcastic post

Barely enough as it turns out

In comment 14984601 LBH15 said:

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In comment 14984583 crick n NC said: Quote: Enough to make a sarcastic post Barely enough as it turns out

When you were banned as Jimmy Googs, did you ask to comeback with your previous handle or was that your third strike? It's certainly awkward how you pretend you are some new poster.

You’re following the comments of the wrong guys on here I presume.

being Googs.

He continually talks about posters having a bad look. He's even talking about what is a worthwhile exchange on this thread and up further above talking about "class"

Why is a previously banned poster giving advice to ANYONE on what to post, how to post, class or what is a worthwhile exchange?

A poster who trolled until he was banned came back to - you guessed it - troll.

if there ever was one. Let me take a quick spin to see how many posters you are cursing at on other threads.

In comment 14984660 LBH15 said:

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if there ever was one. Let me take a quick spin to see how many posters you are cursing at on other threads.

Do it quickly before you get banned again and come back with another handle

If that's not a troll what would the word be?? Perhaps cuntery?

I have often mentioned for you to move on as I can assure you, you don’t bother me a bit. And I am very comfortable making fun of your antagonistic comments.

This thread is a perfect example of guys calling you out and acting as a child.

Death, taxes, and FMiC in a row at BBI... ;)

In comment 14984675 bw in dc said:

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Death, taxes, and FMiC in a row at BBI... ;)

Yes, three things people have to deal with yet despise.

In comment 14984675 bw in dc said:

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Death, taxes, and FMiC in a row at BBI... ;)

What about you, you bastid? :)

In comment 14984674 LBH15 said:

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I have often mentioned for you to move on as I can assure you, you don’t bother me a bit. And I am very comfortable making fun of your antagonistic comments. This thread is a perfect example of guys calling you out and acting as a child.

It's funny how that works. I get called out as classless while those going after me are just punching a bully in the nose.

Who are the children here?

The guy who is so set on trolling a board that he comes back after being banned under a different handle?

The guy who emails the mods his resume and threatens slander because someone posts that he's full of shit?

If I'm a child, I've had a lot of people playing in the sand with me. Of course it gets distracting when they start crying, but that's what some children do.