I was trying to find some statistics about about draft position and NFL career. Came across this post which I found interesting. The poster considered a "success" as starting in the NFL for at least half of your playing career. It's from a Chiefs fan, so he comments on the Chiefs' picks.
The numbers are probably skewed depending on individual team's depth. For example, Flowers would be a "success" as he started more than half his career. I think we all know he wasn't a success.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round
Any other good data out there?
I admit it's an anomaly, and I agree DeOssie had what I'd call a good career, but I have to believe no one's goal for 4th round pick is long snapper, at least I don't think.
Historic Success Chart
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
But on charts like this to be able to quantify and analyze you need a stake in the ground somewhere, so starting half your games I think is fair.
the two scenarios it doesn't allow for are the aforementioned shitty player ("on scholarship") who starts simply due to his draft status and two a player who is so bad go straight from starting to cut (so they fill the criteria of starting half their games).
But once you try and eliminate all the warts in this methodology you wind up with no solution.
I would like to see this updated. this chart is from 2004 to 2014.
I'd also like to see them add UDFAs as their own "draft round"
I admit it's an anomaly, and I agree DeOssie had what I'd call a good career, but I have to believe no one's goal for 4th round pick is long snapper, at least I don't think.
A pro bowl special teams player? Yes, it was a good pick.
Quote:
pick (#116) for a long-snapper?
I admit it's an anomaly, and I agree DeOssie had what I'd call a good career, but I have to believe no one's goal for 4th round pick is long snapper, at least I don't think.
A pro bowl special teams player? Yes, it was a good pick.
Like I said, I think it's an anomaly and if you had to make exceptions for every scenario like this you probably wouldn't be able to have a reasonable analysis.
It's not meant (IMO) to be like WAR, it's meant as a simple way to track if a draft pick was successful and allow for some basic analysis. If you have to look into the details of every pick you lose the ability to aggregate picks this way. it's just not scalable.
If you feel like this is meaningless because of obscure scenarios then don't use it.
It starts with how much draft capital a team begins with. Followed what each team got in return. Then you get the efficiency score for each draft.
You can sort the columns to see how your team did in a particular year.
Link - ( New Window )