I love Saquan as a person and he is exciting to watch. The comp people use for him is Barry Sanders. I was never a Barry Sanders fan. My favorite backs growing up were Earl Campbell and Walter Payton. My style preference is different. I think Barry was an all time great.
I can't help but have watched Freeman for the last few weeks and not think this team is better served by a back that takes the first crease with authority and goes 3, 3, 3, 4, 11, 2, 3, 7, 15, 3 ect. DJ and the OL needs more 2nd and 6 than the threat of the back going for 6 on any given play.
We lost our undisputed best player and we look no different at all. You could make the argument that we look better. I think you can forever place me in the camp that believes you should NEVER draft a running back high in the first now.
I am just kidding around now by in my imagination ....
You and Terrel Davis would be like Paul, the fanboy in Big Fan when he gets beat up by his favorite player
Link - ( New Window )
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that 2018 team played the most games decided by less than a TD than any team in the league.
The facts aren't supporting your take at all.
This is such a meaningless stat.
You know how you stay off this leaderboard? You win games by 8 or more points.
Not sure what meaning you are attaching to it. My point was the 2018 Giants didn't have a whole lot of "junk time" for Barkley to supposedly pile up a ton of yards in.
You know, the assertion made by at least two posters on this thread.
A swing and a miss.
Hey, I've come around to thinking drafting Barkley at #2 was a mistake too after initially being so enthusiastic about it, but let's not go crazy here. He isn't perfect, he may not even be quite as good as initially expecte, but he also isn't just some fast athlete with no football instincts.
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In comment 15017543 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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that 2018 team played the most games decided by less than a TD than any team in the league.
The facts aren't supporting your take at all.
This is such a meaningless stat.
You know how you stay off this leaderboard? You win games by 8 or more points.
Not sure what meaning you are attaching to it. My point was the 2018 Giants didn't have a whole lot of "junk time" for Barkley to supposedly pile up a ton of yards in.
You know, the assertion made by at least two posters on this thread.
We get it, you don't think we can with with Barkley and taking him was stupid. But its border line absurd how far its going.
I already thought of that. But that would be a shit ton of money for someone like that. Secondly, he would not really be starting since the bulk of the carries on first down and second would be by another back! Thirdly, it would be too obvious that it is a screen to Barkley the minute he goes in motion and lines up in the slot or the ball isn't handed off to him. Especially with a QB like Jones that does not confidence or was instructed by coaching not to throw deep out routes.
I do remember a crap load of check downs by Eli to Saquon throughout the season on 3rd and long though. Manning wasn't interested in moving around or staying patient in the pocket any longer at that point in his career.
I do remember a crap load of check downs by Eli to Saquon throughout the season on 3rd and long though. Manning wasn't interested in moving around or staying patient in the pocket any longer at that point in his career.
Exactly. Barkley's receiving numbers were awfully inflated by 7 years catches on 3rd and 12. That's obviously not Barkley's fault, but pointing to his 2000 yard season a measure of his impact is flimsy. The offense was still really poor.
Meanwhile, the Titans re-signed Henry this summer for another 4yrs/$50M, $12.5M AAV.
If we decide to keep Barkley, which I would not advocate right now, is he even worth what Henry signed for?
Henry is a real difference maker who is impacting the bottom line for the Titans. A monster who runs equally effective between the tackles and outside the tackles. And the Titans don't utilize him nearly enough in the passing game. A total stud.
What I think is fascinating is the line of thinking that Barkly was unequivocally the right choice because he was the best player at that moment. I've never wrapped my head around that part.
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either.
I do remember a crap load of check downs by Eli to Saquon throughout the season on 3rd and long though. Manning wasn't interested in moving around or staying patient in the pocket any longer at that point in his career.
Exactly. Barkley's receiving numbers were awfully inflated by 7 years catches on 3rd and 12. That's obviously not Barkley's fault, but pointing to his 2000 yard season a measure of his impact is flimsy. The offense was still really poor.
DG failed in his evaluation of his own roster including the quarterback. He failed in his evaluation of FAs that year. This is why the Barkley pick was wrong in hindsight IMHO. I think you should allow that Barkley is a very good RB, otherwise they attack that point.
To explore the thought a little more though. You have to consider how bad the Giants defense was in 2018 and why the 15+ point games are especially relevant. Every reason to think teams that felt like they could beat our defense would just want to prevent the big play from our offense. ~30% of his yards coming from those games which represent 25% of the season is not insignificant and that kind of analysis certainly beats one that points to 2 games as "the only blowouts." The check down conversation is important especially given Barkley and where the conversation about wins is important. I don't really care about his 2,000 yards if they didn't come in important games. And this is especially important with the stat I shared earlier in 12 non blowout games (decided by 0-7 points) he averaged a pedestrian 4.44 yards a carry. The league average Y/A for 2018 was 4.41. In his "best" season he provided us with a league average yards per attempt which is very much not what you use the #2 pick on. Toss around 2K all purpose yards you want but you want a back that is better than league average in close games when you commit those kinds of resources.
Will leave you with one more stat from that season.
In the last 4 minutes of games where we led Barkley had a grand total of 27 all purpose yards.
In the last 4 minutes of games we trailed he had 113. 4X the amount of yards when down, not what you want. You draft a guy like Barkley to lock up games for you in wins. He averaged .8 yards a carry in those leading with 4 mins or less situations.
Calculation of Y/A for the league from PFR 2018 Team Stats - ( New Window )
What I think is fascinating is the line of thinking that Barkly was unequivocally the right choice because he was the best player at that moment. I've never wrapped my head around that part.
Me neither. The best player in that draft was Jackson, with maybe Nelson also having an argument. Jackson was an incredible college player. Incredible.
Why is it that WRs are getting guarantees at high levels? The NFL is full of young explosive WRs and the college game becoming more pass happy is putting out a ton of guys each year it seems.
You would think that would normalize somewhat as well...no?
Not looking to really argue. Henry is the gold standard right now and the Titans probably got a very reasonable deal for a player who is a legit force multiplier.
x y z
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so arguing about what he’d be making seems rather pointless. We will know his value next year. But RB contracts remain incredibly flexible and team friendly. WR contracts are the dangerous ones, they are over inflated and a bunch of them look terrible with no outs since the guarantees are almost double the typical top RB contracts.
Not looking to really argue. Henry is the gold standard right now and the Titans probably got a very reasonable deal for a player who is a legit force multiplier.
Force multiplier? Sure if you give him good blocking up front. He is not a guy you want running behind a poor offensive line, he doesn't have much agility and his acceleration isn't good. I'm really curious what he's going to look like moving forward without Lewan.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2018
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019
I know I have made similar posts in the past, but...
We all know that the NFL is a passing league now. However that doesn't mean that rushing has no value.
There is a correlation with winning and with run success (gaining a 1st down or TD on a run, or getting 40% on 1st and 50% on 2nd down of the yards remaining to achieve a 1st 1st down). For a running back this metric is expressed on FO as SucRt (Success Rate).
Barkley is near the bottom of the league in success rate, 40th in 2018, and 38th in 2019. We all know Barkley is boom or bust. Turns out boom or bust is bad for winning, consistently getting 3 to 6 yards per play is what leads to winning. That is not Barkley, and that is why we haven't seen value from him as a RB. So far this year Freeman has been getting NS quickly and more consistently getting positive yards. Although he had trouble in Atlanta last year.
In college Barkley was the same kind of runner. He has similar success ratios from his time a Penn St. So this is what Barkley is, not just an aberration.
Similarly his passing stats are very pedestrian as well. There isn't a success metric in FO like there is for rushing, but they do have their DVOA. Barkley's DVOA has been stubbornly mediocre in the receiving game. I suspect that is as other's have said that he gets to many garbage yards, dump offs on 3rd down that don't make a 1st, and garbage time plays that don't get the Giants back in the game.
What we have seen from him hardly ranks as "the best player available in the draft". In fact, Barkley is likely not the best RB from that draft. There are multiple RBs that rank way ahead of Barkley as far as consistent production from 2018.
Sorry about the formatting, BBI needs to implement more of the bbcode directives for table formatting to work well...
YEAR 2018
Player Team DVOA Rk Runs SucRt Rank
G.Edwards BAL 13.90% 9 137 63% 1
A.Kamara NO 18.50% 4 194 58% 2
M.Ingram NO 2.90% 19 138 57% 3
T.Gurley LAR 23.60% 1 256 57% 4
C.McCaffrey CAR 9.60% 10 219 55% 5
A.Jones GB 17.10% 7 133 55% 6
K.Hunt KC 9.10% 11 181 55% 7
M.Mack IND 16.80% 8 195 54% 8
M.Gordon LAC 20.80% 3 175 53% 9
D.Martin OAK -12.20% 37 172 53% 10
S.Michel NE -2.70% 26 209 53% 11
K.Johnson DET 17.50% 5 118 53% 12
A.Ekeler LAC 4.90% 15 106 52% 13
M.Davis SEA 9.00% 12 112 52% 14
C.Carson SEA 3.90% 17 247 51% 15
D.Henry TEN 23.10% 2 215 51% 16
J.Howard CHI -11.10% 36 250 50% 17
E.Elliott DAL 2.90% 20 304 50% 18
F.Gore MIA 5.70% 14 156 50% 19
N.Chubb CLE 1.10% 24 192 50% 19
J.Adams PHI -11.00% 34 120 50% 19
P.Lindsay DEN 17.30% 6 192 49% 22
J.Mixon CIN 6.40% 13 237 49% 23
J.Conner PIT 2.30% 21 215 49% 24
T.J.Yeldon JAX -12.50% 39 104 48% 25
A.Collins BAL -9.40% 33 114 47% 26
L.Fournette JAX -9.30% 32 133 47% 26
A.Peterson WAS -6.00% 29 251 47% 28
R.Freeman DEN -6.80% 31 130 46% 29
M.Breida SF 1.30% 23 153 46% 30
L.Murray MIN -4.20% 27 140 46% 31
J.Williams GB 1.70% 22 121 45% 32
K.Drake MIA 4.70% 16 120 45% 33
C.Ivory BUF -14.30% 42 115 44% 34
L.Miller HOU -5.30% 28 210 44% 35
P.Barber TB -12.40% 38 234 44% 36
T.Coleman ATL -6.40% 30 167 43% 37
A.Morris SF -30.50% 47 111 41% 38
A.Blue HOU -23.00% 44 150 41% 39
S.Barkley NYG 3.30% 18 261 41% 40
D.Cook MIN -13.70% 41 133 41% 41
C.Hyde 2TM -11.00% 35 172 39% 42
Da.Johnson ARI -12.60% 40 258 38% 43
L.Blount DET -27.90% 46 154 37% 44
L.McCoy BUF -26.20% 45 161 37% 45
I.Crowell NYJ -1.90% 25 143 36% 46
D.Lewis TEN -20.10% 43 155 34% 47
Player Team DYAR DVOA ▴ Rank
S.Barkley NYG -0.7% 28
YEAR 2019
Player Team DVOA Rk Runs SucRt Rank
M.Ingram BAL 19.80% 2 202 60% 1
L.Murray NO 10.70% 9 146 60% 2
C.Carson SEA 1.90% 16 278 57% 3
E.Elliott DAL 16.50% 4 301 56% 4
A.Jones GB 12.00% 7 236 56% 5
G.Edwards BAL 11.80% 8 133 56% 6
J.Williams GB -1.50% 21 107 53% 7
J.Howard PHI 14.20% 6 119 53% 8
R.Mostert SF 26.80% 1 137 53% 9
M.Mack IND 1.00% 18 247 52% 10
K.Johnson DET -13.70% 41 113 52% 11
A.Kamara NO 3.10% 15 171 52% 12
C.Hyde HOU -3.30% 26 245 52% 13
J.Jacobs OAK 3.50% 14 242 51% 14
M.Gordon LAC -7.50% 33 162 51% 15
K.Drake 2TM 19.70% 3 170 51% 16
D.Henry TEN 6.70% 11 303 50% 17
Dam.Williams KC -6.80% 31 111 50% 18
P.Lindsay DEN 1.90% 17 224 50% 19
D.Washington OAK -7.00% 32 108 50% 19
D.Singletary BUF 3.70% 13 151 50% 21
S.Michel NE -6.40% 29 247 49% 22
D.Cook MIN 9.30% 10 250 49% 23
B.Snell PIT -11.70% 39 108 49% 24
L.McCoy KC -4.10% 28 101 49% 25
T.Gurley LAR -2.40% 25 223 48% 26
A.Peterson WAS -4.10% 27 211 47% 27
C.McCaffrey CAR 14.90% 5 287 47% 28
D.Montgomery CHI -13.00% 40 242 46% 29
J.Mixon CIN -0.90% 20 278 46% 30
M.Breida SF -1.80% 22 123 46% 31
A.Ekeler LAC -10.00% 35 132 45% 32
R.Jones TB -2.30% 24 172 45% 33
M.Sanders PHI -6.60% 30 179 45% 34
J.Conner PIT -11.30% 38 115 45% 35
F.Gore BUF -15.20% 42 166 45% 36
N.Chubb CLE 4.50% 12 298 45% 37
S.Barkley NYG 0.40% 19 217 44% 38
L.Fournette JAX -8.60% 34 265 42% 39
L.Bell NYJ -16.60% 44 246 42% 40
D.Freeman ATL -11.10% 37 184 41% 41
R.Freeman DEN -11.00% 36 132 41% 42
P.Barber TB -29.80% 45 154 40% 43
T.Coleman SF -15.30% 43 137 39% 44
A.Mattison MIN -2.20% 23 100 38% 45
Player Team DYAR DVOA ▴ Rank
S.Barkley NYG -22.8% 45
YEAR 2020
Does not have enough runs or catches to qualify for full stats in FO, but his DVOA Running the ball is an abysmal -31.6% and passing it is -0.2%.
JonC posted a stat that was something like 30% of all his yards were gained on just 30 plays (I forget the number of plays. Help JonC?). Whateer the exact number of plays, it wasn't many, it is far too few plays for his total yards to be impactful.
In today's NFL, big plays come from the receivers. RB is a support position. It is nearly impossible in this day and age to sustain having a RB being your primary source of yards. The rules have changed, the OL that come out of college has changed. The league just doesn't support the bell cow RB model anymore.
Force multiplier? Sure if you give him good blocking up front. He is not a guy you want running behind a poor offensive line, he doesn't have much agility and his acceleration isn't good. I'm really curious what he's going to look like moving forward without Lewan.
Acceleration isn't good?
Did you just seriously right that? Or did you mean quickness.
Henry has busted off two 95 yard TD runs the last two years. This is a 6'4" 250lb guy who runs a legit 4.5; and runs away from defenders when he isn't driving them into the turf like lawn darts.
Do you think Henry's running ability hasn't made Tannehill and their receivers more productive players? That's really his force multiplier impact.
Who cares about 2000 total yards of they're not translating to points?
Sorry, but Barkley isn't in Henry's class. We're seeing Henry put up massive, game winning performances, and often in critical November/December games.
bw in dc. nothing really to argue, Henry's deal is great. And if he gets hurt the guarantees are low and they can move on easily. Pretty much the same with every new deal being handed out. CMC only has $38m guaranteed iirc.
Christian - can you repost those numbers you ran?
Saints have plenty of talent all-around. They are still scoring at a good clip and their defense is well above average too. Good roster.
I would have to imagine that the WR guarantees will come back down to earth based on a bigger supply of talented younger guys around.
btw - did you mean guarantees as a % of total deal for WRs were bigger?
In 30 career games, he had 493 carries for 2316 yards 4.7 YPC, 15 TDs.
Carries Over 20+ YDs
- 22 carries of 20+ YDs, 5 TDs
- Accounts for 868 or 37.5% of career rush yards
- Subtract those out, his career YPC is 3.07 for 1448 YDs
Career Carries at or Under 0 Yards
- 108 carries for 0 or less yards for a total of -194 yards
- 22% of all carries
- Subtract those out, his career YPC is 6.5 on 2510 yards
Many times team haven't. Some are comfortable their front 6 or 7 will handle the Giants Oline and get to Barkley.
Jones with Saquon - 9 games:
21 TD's, 8 INT's
265 yds/game
3 games with rating over 120
Jones without Saquon: - 8 games
5 TDs - 9INT's
217 yds/gm
0 games with rating over 120
When teams can play straight up and stop tghe run, that's when we've had a lot of problems navigating the Cover 2. Which are predominantly the games that Barkley missed. Even in the opener, Pittsburgh sold out to stop the run - the impact - deep TD to Slayton
In 30 career games, he had 493 carries for 2316 yards 4.7 YPC, 15 TDs.
Carries Over 20+ YDs
- 22 carries of 20+ YDs, 5 TDs
- Accounts for 868 or 37.5% of career rush yards
- Subtract those out, his career YPC is 3.07 for 1448 YDs
Career Carries at or Under 0 Yards
- 108 carries for 0 or less yards for a total of -194 yards
- 22% of all carries
- Subtract those out, his career YPC is 6.5 on 2510 yards
Thanks christian.
And sorry for mistakenly attributing these to JonC.
37.5% on 22 carries. That's just awfully bad inconsistency.
crick:
How much impact can he have had when the team has gone 5-11, 4-12, and 0-2(before he went down). And during that time we have seen some of the worst offensive play in Giants history. This crap about moving safeties and linebackers around is just BS, at least as far as the Giants are concerned. If those players moved, it had very little impact on opposing teams ability to provide more than adequate coverage. So if you can't take advantage of 8 man fronts, what use is it. If the team did not/does not have the personnel to take advantage of 8 man fronts, then why is the team bothering to pick Barkley. For reference in 2018 Barkley faced 8 man fronts 23% of the time (arguably a high percentage). He actually has better stats against 8 man fronts than fewer. Mostly because he busted some long plays against 8 man fronts. That is the risk with 8 man fronts, if the RB gets past the 8th man, there isn't much left that can run him down. However, that still means that 77% of his runs were not vs. stacked fronts. So I'm not really buying this argument that he changes the defenses all that much.
in general:
Please spare me any excuses about the offensive line being bad. There were plenty of folks who said that he was so good that he didn't need a really good offensive line. Complaining about his OL now is moving the goalposts.
As long as you and Terps can fall back on “we haven’t won” I guess you will never ever be wrong. I just hope you apply that logic to all teams with great players that never win anything. It couldn’t possibly be anyone else’s fault that their team stinks...
I’ve given a ton in this debate and agreed on many points. You guys are now being disingenuous which is why discussing this is so annoying (and why I stopped participating in many of these threads as of late). I’d love to see Derrick Henry and Barkley swap teams. I’m fairly certain what the result would be. Barkley would look stellar over there and Henry would struggle to hit 4 ypc here. We’d have roughly the same record as we do when Barkley plays.
exactly!
And the team scored a whopping 16 points.
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the Steelers won.
exactly!
And the team scored a whopping 16 points.
Mcl, I don't care what others claimed about Barkley and you are not to hold me accountable for their poor takes. I base my football thoughts on the basis that football is a team sport which means players somewhat rely on their teammates to do their job so they can do theirs.
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In comment 15018273 LBH15 said:
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the Steelers won.
exactly!
And the team scored a whopping 16 points.
Mcl, I don't care what others claimed about Barkley and you are not to hold me accountable for their poor takes. I base my football thoughts on the basis that football is a team sport which means players somewhat rely on their teammates to do their job so they can do theirs.
I tried to address to you only the comments you made. You were talking about defenses keying on Barkley... That usually translates to 8 man fronts. I was referencing your comment on teams "focusing" on Barkley. The "in general" part was not meant to be directed at you (thus the "in general" tag vs. the "crick" tag), but to anybody who would now blame the OL after saying he didn't need a good OL to perform. Not to you specifically. Sorry if that was not clear.
:)
I’ve given a ton in this debate and agreed on many points. You guys are now being disingenuous which is why discussing this is so annoying (and why I stopped participating in many of these threads as of late). I’d love to see Derrick Henry and Barkley swap teams. I’m fairly certain what the result would be. Barkley would look stellar over there and Henry would struggle to hit 4 ypc here. We’d have roughly the same record as we do when Barkley plays.
I don't know about that. Henry seems to be a more efficient runner than Barkely with his north-south style. Barkley is more of a ballerina. Henry is an earth mover.
Plus, you can't underestimate Henry's ability to take it wide, plant, and then turn the corner. He's very nimble for a size.
Even with our OL, I think he'd be more effective than you think. Definitely not putting up his current production, but he'd be hitting holes harder and creating yards by running through people.
But, to your point, I could see Barkley doing some good things in Tennessee. Not sure, however, if Barkley could handle the load of carries that Henry does...
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the Steelers won.
As long as you and Terps can fall back on “we haven’t won” I guess you will never ever be wrong. I just hope you apply that logic to all teams with great players that never win anything. It couldn’t possibly be anyone else’s fault that their team stinks...
I’ve given a ton in this debate and agreed on many points. You guys are now being disingenuous which is why discussing this is so annoying (and why I stopped participating in many of these threads as of late). I’d love to see Derrick Henry and Barkley swap teams. I’m fairly certain what the result would be. Barkley would look stellar over there and Henry would struggle to hit 4 ypc here. We’d have roughly the same record as we do when Barkley plays.
What the hell are u getting so bent here?
I made a simple comment that the Steelers put in an obvious gameplan to shut down Barkley and the impact of executing that strategy was a win versus the Giants. Slayton may have gotten a long TD catch but the Steelers risked that happening and still won.