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Draft order/NFC East

ray in arlington : 10/22/2020 11:44 pm
NFC EAST RACE
PHI 2-4-1 (DIV 1-1; beat NYG)
DAL 2-4 (DIV 1-0; beat NYG)
WAS 1-5 (DIV 1-1; lost to NYG)
NYG 1-6 (DIV 1-2)
The NFC East is 2-15-1 outside the division.

PROJECTED DRAFT ORDER
The tiebreak for draft order for non-playoff teams is Strength of Schedule (SOS). The familiar tiebreakers (head-to-head, conference record, etc.) only come into play if the SOS is the same for the 2 teams. Therefore a 4th place team can pick behind a 3rd place team (or even a 2nd place team).

At this point in the season, I just list by a projected SOS - the combined records of the 16 opponents. Later in the year I figure out which future games will add 1-1 to the SOS (i.e teams on our schedule playing each other) to get a more refined estimate.
(Note that the tiebreak info below is based on the assumption that all teams will play their complete schedule).

1. NYJ 0-6 (-4.5)
2. NYG 1-6
3. WAS 1-5 (3.5; see below)
4. ATL 1-5 (-2.5)
5. JAC 1-5 (-3)
6. MIN 1-5 (-3)
7. HOU 1-5 (-6) (pick traded to MIA)
8. LAC 1-4 (6)
9. CIN 1-4-1

The numbers in parentheses give the number of games back in projected SOS, e.g. NYG is 4.5 games weaker in projected SOS than NYJ and NYG is 6 games stronger than LAC in projected SOS. Big negative numbers are good for NYG, big positive numbers are bad for NYG.

For SOS tiebreak vs other NFC East teams, one only needs to look at the combined wins of the 2 non-common opponents. For WAS (assuming both teams don’t make the playoffs) compare
WAS: DET + CAR = 5-6 combined record
NYG: CHI + TB = 9-3 combined record
Here's a positive:  
Anakim : 10/22/2020 11:46 pm : link
Whichever team wins the NFC East will not get past the first round. You can be sure of that. So maybe it is better to have as high as pick as possible.



Unless that pick is made by Gettleman. If Gettleman is still the GM by the time of the 2021 Draft, you can be sure as fuck that our first round pick will be some shitty reach.
If the Jets lose a game  
GMen72 : 10/22/2020 11:52 pm : link
and we tank like we should, Lawrence is ours. Our strength of schedule is going to be terrible!
RE: If the Jets lose a game  
ray in arlington : 10/22/2020 11:58 pm : link
In comment 15020606 GMen72 said:
Quote:
and we tank like we should, Lawrence is ours. Our strength of schedule is going to be terrible!


Not necessarily. The NFC West, AFC North, TB and CHI are doing well. The combined record of our 16 opponents is a respectable .536.
Of course  
myquealer : 10/23/2020 12:23 am : link
NFC West and AFC North have good records, they get to play the NFC East....
RE: Of course  
ray in arlington : 10/23/2020 1:01 am : link
In comment 15020924 myquealer said:
Quote:
NFC West and AFC North have good records, they get to play the NFC East....


I'm referring to games they have played against teams not on our schedule. Those 8 teams have a 12-6 record in those games, which is keeping our SOS from plummeting.













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