Oh that's just too delicious. Go get your shineboxes, assholes.
They still fucked your Yanks with no lube, suck it.
I forget, what round did the Mets go out in? Oh, right, their sorry asses couldn't even make the playoffs when they expanded postseason so half the fucking league got in.
Oh that's just too delicious. Go get your shineboxes, assholes.
They still fucked your Yanks with no lube, suck it.
I forget, what round did the Mets go out in? Oh, right, their sorry asses couldn't even make the playoffs when they expanded postseason so half the fucking league got in.
Oh that's just too delicious. Go get your shineboxes, assholes.
Hard to believe both those guys didn’t even lift their bat. I was taught at a young age to always swing with two strikes if it’s close. I guess those two didn’t have a father like mine.
Is going to be the center of attention tomorrow as all the talking heads continue to dissect the call of taking Snell out after mowing down the Bums for only 5 innings.
Oh well, at least Tampa won the Stanley Cup, so maybe the fans are still celebrating that.
Congrats to the Dodgers for finally getting over the hump
Harold Reynolds just brought up a good point that Turner’s positive test might have forced a week long suspension of play leading up to a potential game 7 if Tampa had won. What a mess that would have been for baseball
Harold Reynolds just brought up a good point that Turner’s positive test might have forced a week long suspension of play leading up to a potential game 7 if Tampa had won. What a mess that would have been for baseball
Well look...he took a $60 million team to an AL Pennant and great memories. Great year can't be distilled to one bad decision.
But you have to admit that was a major choke job and clear instance of overthinking shit, right? And on the biggest stage— game 6 of the WS. Mookie even said that pitching change was basically the only thing they had hope of saving them (he said it in as respectful a way as you could imagine but that’s what he said).
There are a lot of instances where I understand taking a guy out at that point... this was far from one of them. For instance Roberts taking Kershaw out last night was controversial but made fine sense because it’s not like Kershaw was 100% lights out all night. But when a guy is on fire and clearly in total command it doesn’t take a baseball genius (or even novice) to know that guy has earned a chance to at least finish 6 damn innings. Especially when he’s clearly your ace and it’s obviously not a fluke of some sort.
With the way Snell was pitching and the success he’d had against that top of the lineup? 0/6 with 6 K’s ??? 6 K’s. It’s not like on the previous at bat Mookie had found a way to time the pitches up and hit a loud ass out. He and the other Dodger BEST hitters looked like scrubs striking out against Snell.
With a lineup as talented as the Dodgers Mookie-Seager-Turner you take your chances with the guy who just sat all 3 of them down 2x in a row, because chances are any random (even above average) reliever you throw in there is likely to put your lead in danger simply because those guys are so good. And he pulls him right then and there simply because the #9 hitter gets a hit. Snell looked locked in, and that was only the 2nd hit he allowed all night. At that point he had earn a chance to finish out 6 innings. Some managers these days really seem to act like no pitcher in history has ever completed a full game (and I’m not even talking about a full game, I’m talking about 6 or 7 innings).
I think the moment was finally a little too big for Cash and he wasn’t thinking clearly on this one.
Well look...he took a $60 million team to an AL Pennant and great memories. Great year can't be distilled to one bad decision.
But you have to admit that was a major choke job and clear instance of overthinking shit, right? And on the biggest stage— game 6 of the WS. Mookie even said that pitching change was basically the only thing they had hope of saving them (he said it in as respectful a way as you could imagine but that’s what he said).
There are a lot of instances where I understand taking a guy out at that point... this was far from one of them. For instance Roberts taking Kershaw out last night was controversial but made fine sense because it’s not like Kershaw was 100% lights out all night. But when a guy is on fire and clearly in total command it doesn’t take a baseball genius (or even novice) to know that guy has earned a chance to at least finish 6 damn innings. Especially when he’s clearly your ace and it’s obviously not a fluke of some sort.
With the way Snell was pitching and the success he’d had against that top of the lineup? 0/6 with 6 K’s ??? 6 K’s. It’s not like on the previous at bat Mookie had found a way to time the pitches up and hit a loud ass out. He and the other Dodger BEST hitters looked like scrubs striking out against Snell.
With a lineup as talented as the Dodgers Mookie-Seager-Turner you take your chances with the guy who just sat all 3 of them down 2x in a row, because chances are any random (even above average) reliever you throw in there is likely to put your lead in danger simply because those guys are so good. And he pulls him right then and there simply because the #9 hitter gets a hit. Snell looked locked in, and that was only the 2nd hit he allowed all night. At that point he had earn a chance to finish out 6 innings. Some managers these days really seem to act like no pitcher in history has ever completed a full game (and I’m not even talking about a full game, I’m talking about 6 or 7 innings).
I think the moment was finally a little too big for Cash and he wasn’t thinking clearly on this one.
I agree, Cash will be severely criticized all off season because of that decision. Too bad, because he is a good manager and has done a lot with little.
I think maybe he was thinking of game 2 when Snell was also dominating the Dodgers for 4 2/3 and then the Dodgers woke up somewhat but getting 2 runs. At that time, Cash took out Snell after 4 2/3 and no one criticized him for it because they won and the bullpen pitched beautifully.
Last night was very similar. Snell had 9 Ks in game 2 and had a similar number in game 6. So, maybe Cash was thinking along those lines, plus Cash really believes in his bullpen, even though Anderson had not been pitching lights out in the post season.
game and just saw the Dodgers won. Also saw that Cash pulled Snell at a predetermined point and it immediately cost him. Your ace was pitching an ace type game and you pull him so the Dodgers hitters would not see him a third time? 73 pitches?
Analytics is great if it is a tool for managing and not the manager itself.
Congrats to the Dodgers, they were truly the best team in baseball this year.
or a game where he had no feel? I can’t even tell the two apart anymore.
Snell has never made it out of the 6th inning ever in his playoff career, the Dodgers and Cash know this. He’s barely made it out of the 5th.
I’m willing to bet the gameplan was to pull him after 4 but was left in once he got through without any base runners. And then he let a runner on with the heart of the order up and that was that.
Logical decision based on Snells history and being seen that 3rd time around.
or a game where he had no feel? I can’t even tell the two apart anymore.
Snell has never made it out of the 6th inning ever in his playoff career, the Dodgers and Cash know this. He’s barely made it out of the 5th.
I’m willing to bet the gameplan was to pull him after 4 but was left in once he got through without any base runners. And then he let a runner on with the heart of the order up and that was that.
Logical decision based on Snells history and being seen that 3rd time around.
Yep....I think you hit it on the head here. Like I said, did you hear any of the talking heads complain about his 5th inning yank in game 2, a game they won? 9ks in just 4 2/3! Nope, no one was complaining, but because they lost, you will hear them for weeks and weeks complain.
Oh well, I’m more concerned about Tampa’s football team, not their baseball team.
gets roughed up the 3rd time around considered “analytics”? That’s news to me. Sounds like something a 10 year old would know after watching a player enough throughout a season.
gets roughed up the 3rd time around considered “analytics”? That’s news to me. Sounds like something a 10 year old would know after watching a player enough throughout a season.
Just have to disagree. Kershaw has sucked in the playoffs and WS throughout his career, yet he still pitched.
Kenley Jensen also blows in WS and yet they threw him out there to lose again the other night.
As dominant as Snell was, you ride with him. He is the Ace of the staff. Anderson had sucked during the playoffs, why was he brought it? Maybe it was more a poor choice of reliever, more than pulling Snell, but I would have left Snell in at that point.
must be happy, but it's got to feel slightly unsatisfying with their first championship in 32 years in a 60 game season, right?
People can say there shouldn't be an asterix, but there literally (and I literally mean literally) has to be an asterix next to their name in the list of WS Champions to explain this was a COVID shortened season where schedules were changed, new rules were implemented, etc.
If Aaron Boone had done what Cash did last night? Taking his Starter out and having it backfire in an elimination game? GEEZ!!! He'd have to go into hiding!
Cash could have done the "safe" thing in the eyes of fans/media and left in Snell. He would have avoided scrutiny because conventional wisdom and accepted orthodoxy is to leave in the pitcher. It's not much different from a football coach deciding to punt on 4th down (or kick a FG) when going for it is more advantageous and leads to a higher likelihood of winning. In such a situation, the coach only seems to take heat if they go for it and fail and not if they lose anyway by playing too conservatively.
If he left in Snell, and Snell did what he's done this season and gotten roughed up the third time through the order, he would have gotten some criticism from attentive fans who saw it happen to Snell all season, but hte majority of people wouldn't have blamed Cash-- they would have said Snell pitched a great game, but then lost it a bit, and the bats weren't enough to overcome it. That would have been the safe play for Cash's reputation.
Does that mean that there aren't arguments for leaving in Snell? Of course not. There will be plenty of articles arguing to leave in Snell, including from a data perspective. Because there are a lot of variables involved.
But I respect Cash for playing to win and going with the decision-making system that got him and the Rays to where the are, performing above expectations all season. It didn't work out, and it sucks for him that he has to wear the entire blame for it.
Did he pick the right releiver? I don't know. Would Snell have continued to dominate? Perhaps, though past performance suggets otherwise.
Overall, it was a hell of a series and a hell of a postseason.
I'm happy for Kershaw, a generational talent who hasn't been as good in the postseason, but whose performances have been skewed by some abysmal luck. Aside from getting shelled in 2017 by a cheating Astros-- in Game 5 he threw 51 breaking balls and there were zero whiffs by Astros batters. They knew what was coming. Even worse, going back to 2014, when he has been pulled from games, the Dodgers bullpen have allowed 14 of the last 15 inherited runners to score, including the last 11 in a row! For context, I believe on average that number is under 30%.
And as as Yankees fan, it has been a real treat to watch Mookie play without having to root against him. What a fun, special player.
Cash is a great manager who may have made a bad decision at the worst time, but you with what brings you to the dance, and he did that, plus we don't know if he would have folded if he stuck with him, one at bat can change everything, knocking Cash is a fools erand.
I'm happy for Kershaw, a generational talent who hasn't been as good in the postseason, but whose performances have been skewed by some abysmal luck. Aside from getting shelled in 2017 by a cheating Astros-- in Game 5 he threw 51 breaking balls and there were zero whiffs by Astros batters. They knew what was coming. Even worse, going back to 2014, when he has been pulled from games, the Dodgers bullpen have allowed 14 of the last 15 inherited runners to score, including the last 11 in a row! For context, I believe on average that number is under 30%.
And as as Yankees fan, it has been a real treat to watch Mookie play without having to root against him. What a fun, special player.
a Dodgers fan, I'm ecstatic. Our first championship since 1988, and it helps lessen the disappointment of losing to the Astros and Red Sox in the World Series. This is the best I've felt since my alma mater UVA won the NCAA men's Division 1 basketball and lacrosse championships in 2019.
a Dodgers fan, I'm ecstatic. Our first championship since 1988, and it helps lessen the disappointment of losing to the Astros and Red Sox in the World Series. This is the best I've felt since my alma mater UVA won the NCAA men's Division 1 basketball and lacrosse championships in 2019.
Moose thinks everything bad that happens = analytics which is exactly why I hate this argument (and him when he goes on these tangents). Maggie making a lot more sense.
That they are a valuable tool in scouting and rating players, but he wanted to see the players actually play. And leave the game in the hands of the players.
game and just saw the Dodgers won. Also saw that Cash pulled Snell at a predetermined point and it immediately cost him. Your ace was pitching an ace type game and you pull him so the Dodgers hitters would not see him a third time? 73 pitches?
Analytics is great if it is a tool for managing and not the manager itself.
Congrats to the Dodgers, they were truly the best team in baseball this year.
C'mon. Fell asleep? Before Cash pulled Snell? Hard to credit. The "analytics" re batters third time around are BS when facing a great pitcher who is on his game. They were not derived from such classic performances by a great pitcher being great. They are derived from treating all pitchers as meat. Nuts to that.
I'm happy for Kershaw, a generational talent who hasn't been as good in the postseason, but whose performances have been skewed by some abysmal luck. Aside from getting shelled in 2017 by a cheating Astros-- in Game 5 he threw 51 breaking balls and there were zero whiffs by Astros batters. They knew what was coming. Even worse, going back to 2014, when he has been pulled from games, the Dodgers bullpen have allowed 14 of the last 15 inherited runners to score, including the last 11 in a row! For context, I believe on average that number is under 30%.
And as as Yankees fan, it has been a real treat to watch Mookie play without having to root against him. What a fun, special player.
Good post, agree about both Kershaw and Betts
Agreed. I'm happy that Kershaw will atleast have this solid World Series post-season run to help keep the "loser" label away from him. He's arguably the best of his era, I'm glad he got one.
Betts is a special player. Like most baseball fans, I firmly believe Mike Trout is the best player in the game and a generational talent. However, Betts has solidified himself as the clear 2nd best position player in the sport if he wasn't already. He's the only guy close to Trout. He honestly should've been a Red Sox player for life, can't believe Boston didn't make that happen. I'm glad I could root for him this post-season.
“Blake Snell was throwing better tonight than anyone I’ve ever seen in the World Series,” Hall of Fame pitcher Jack Morris told Minneapolis Star-Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse. “These analytics guys we have now think numbers are more important than having an ace at his best on the hill.”
analytics. Did he ever watch a guy named Bumgarner? The same Bumgarner who in 16 career post season starts has gotten through 6 innings 10 times, through 7 innings 8 times, through 8 innings 5 times and has 3 complete games?
Analytics existed when Bumgarner pitched and he was left in because he's a much better pitcher than Snell (especially in the playoffs).
but if I were the Rays manager based on what I saw out of Snell last night, I would have kept him in.
Completely fine. My only issue is people chalking everything up to analytics when it really isn't. He did this in Snells last outing and in Morton's in a game 7. And then the #9 hitter gets on and Betts is up, well, we know how that could go.
gets roughed up the 3rd time around considered “analytics”? That’s news to me. Sounds like something a 10 year old would know after watching a player enough throughout a season.
I think the comment around it being analytics is the fact that he automatically pulled him out because it was going to be the 3rd time. While the pure numbers may have very well supported it, Cash didn't allow for the fact that Snell was absolutely dealing, and this game could very well have been the one time he got past the 3rd time through the lineup.
The worst outcome would have been a Betts HR, which would have put them down 2-1. Not ideal, but not a game ender, either. Betts had not only been struggling all series long, but he was also lost in his two earlier AB's. Sure, he could have figured something out in that third AB (and yes, I'm aware Betts hit a HR vs. a different pitcher in the 8th), but as mentioned, Snell was dealing. Cash didn't even go out to the mound and ask Snell how he was feeling, talk strategy, etc - he signaled to the pen even before crossing the foul line. To me, that meant he was solely following the numbers.
and the analytics say don’t let your starter face guys 3 times in one game.
They beat the Yankees ASSES this year with 25% of the payroll so who can say they’re wrong?
But there has to be some eyeballs too. If a guy is pitching out of mind on a certain night there needs to be acknowledgement of that.
Especially in an elimination game all that spreadsheet shit needs to go out the window. Being a slave to analytics burned them and even though I was rooting for the Rays I’m glad it did.
And wanted to get a righty/righty matchup. It was going to be Betts third look at Snell.That reliever's one job was to get Mookie Betts out and didn't do it.
I know two lefties followed, but that's one of their very best bullpen guys and if he gets Betts out, there are two outs, man on first.
Players have to do their jobs and in this case, he didn't.
The move was consistent with how Tampa played the entire year. Tough to critcize him.
that actually happened. He's a career .230 hitter.
I do believe that Cash wanted to pull him if he let up any hit. I don't believe he would have pulled him with none on and 2 out.
Understood re 9 hitter. But the top three hitters were 0-6 with 6 K's.
Re 2 out and none on - yes, that would have been interesting to see what Cash did there; if he pulled him them, then clearly he was simply following analytics.
and that brings us to the 3rd time though the order and what managers do about 99% of the time. There's very few pitchers that wouldn't be taken out there, IMO. I listed a guy earlier that wouldn't have ben (MB) and Snell just isn't on that level.
Snell didn't blow the lead. Cash didn't blow the lead. Anderson did.
the moves made in today's game have sound reasoning behind them. But they are judged on the result, not the reasoning.
Leaving a pitcher in too long who gives up a lead is foolish, but if he muscles through one more inning, it is "gritty". Remember Pedro being left in too long? A reliever going an extra inning than normal works sometimes, it backfires others. And the result dictates the narrative.
The Dodgers have been getting clutch hits all series. They could have done it against Snell the 3rd time around. They DID do it to the relievers.
The following is all from Connor Kurcon over at 6th man rotation. The link to the thread is below, but I"ve copied it here.
It's worth noting that Snell went 5 1/3 innings, gave up 2 hits, had 9 strikeouts, and allowed 0 walks, leaving a runner on 1st. So while the parameters he sets aren't identical, it's a large enough sample to show some interesting information, including performances that were both better and worse than Snell's. It also doesn't account for pitch count, and I hope there are follow up threads that look at this aspect as well.
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Connor Kurcon
@ckurcon
I've gone back and forth re: the Blake Snell decision, but here's an interesting number (1/ )
From 2017-2020, there have been 202 starts in which the SP went 5 innings, struck out 9+ hitters, walked 1 or fewer, and allowed 1 or fewer runs. Let's call these starts "Snells" (idk)
For the most part, these 202 "Snells" were, unsurprisingly, a majority of the time from the game's most elite pitchers. So we're not dealing with a sample of mediocre pitchers that got lucky for 5 innings. This is 202 pitchers of Snell's caliber (or better) pitching just as well.
In the 202 Snells, the ERA was 0.62 thru 5 IP
181 of these pitchers came back out for the 6th. In a large number of these starts, the pitcher was beginning to face the top of the lineup for the 3rd time
In the 6th inning, the 181 pitchers allowed 72 runs* in 167.2 IP (3.86 ERA)
* and this doesn't even include the players they left on base!
My point in all this, of course, is that the narrative that "Blake Snell was dealing, therefore you keep him in" means nothing.
All of these pitchers were just as good (or better) as Blake Snell and pitching just as well (or better).
They were "shoving", "momentum", etc.
The correct choice, on average, for these 202 starts, was to bring in a good RP. (Not saying Anderson was the right choice for Tampa)
And if you don't buy into all that, that's fine.
But, imo, you'd really need to have a compelling argument as to why the 200 similar starts/starters before Blake "collapsed" and why Blake was destined for a better outcome (/end)
Separately, it's also worth considering that Snell didn't go more than 5 and 2/3 innings all season. THis strategy with his starts is what the Rays did all season, and so it's not like they made some departure from what has worked for them this whole way.
I forgot the exact numbers but Snell this year (or maybe it was just the playoffs) is allowing a .900 OPS the third time through the order.
To put that in perspective only 23 players this year (less than 1 batter per team) had an OPS above .900
You can say what you personally would do and that's completely fine. But I don't support the idea that it was a stupid decision - everything i'm watching (feel) and reading (analytics) says the opposite.
he averaged 5.8 IP. DeGromm's 2 CY Youngs he was at 6.4 and 6.8 IP per start. Scherzer's Cy Young's are similar. Verlander/Cole are also similar. Kershaw's are over 7 IP.
Snell just isn't in that stratosphere as a pitcher and hasn't earned that long of a leash. Cash knows that. The decisions he makes are because of that. Part of that is "analytics" but a lot of it is watching what happens later in the game and Snell simply struggles (as the data in Paul's post suggests).
the moves made in today's game have sound reasoning behind them. But they are judged on the result, not the reasoning.
Leaving a pitcher in too long who gives up a lead is foolish, but if he muscles through one more inning, it is "gritty". Remember Pedro being left in too long? A reliever going an extra inning than normal works sometimes, it backfires others. And the result dictates the narrative.
The Dodgers have been getting clutch hits all series. They could have done it against Snell the 3rd time around. They DID do it to the relievers.
Well I mean yeah, the result will always dictate the narrative, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t the wrong decision. A lot of people questioned the move at the time. Of course it’s not ALWAYS the right decision to leave the guy in, but every situation is different. Snell was only 5 1/3 innings in, 73 pitches, had only allowed 1 hard hit ball all night, and had struck out the entire top of the order 2x in a row. And they took him out when the top of the order was coming up (3 of the best hitters in baseball who Snell was having great success against). This was nothing like the Pedro decision IMO. That was much later in the game and pitch count. If there was ever a decision that would’ve clearly been worth questioning whether the analytics told the whole story of what was happening at that moment, this was the one.
Sold them on Stubhub for $400 each. Really hoping it goes to game 7 so so can collect.
Just in case, I just threw $300 on the Dodgers at +117 for a little hedge, so I don’t walk away with nothing.
Snell looks really sharp and Arozarena is sick.
As he should be
Double suck
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As he should be
Cash: nerves at the wrong time.
I don’t like cash but he has that team playing about 10 levels above their pay grades. Hes hit on most of his decisions.
Rightfully so. The analytics should be a suggestion only.
Good to be in LA.
They still fucked your Yanks with no lube, suck it.
Gross.
Yup, no reason for Rays to hang their heads. Great season, this was David vs Goliath, and tough for anyone to beat that buzzsaw in LA.
Who gets all defensive over the Tampa Bay Rays lol?
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Oh that's just too delicious. Go get your shineboxes, assholes.
They still fucked your Yanks with no lube, suck it.
I forget, what round did the Mets go out in? Oh, right, their sorry asses couldn't even make the playoffs when they expanded postseason so half the fucking league got in.
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In comment 15026838 Greg from LI said:
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Oh that's just too delicious. Go get your shineboxes, assholes.
They still fucked your Yanks with no lube, suck it.
I forget, what round did the Mets go out in? Oh, right, their sorry asses couldn't even make the playoffs when they expanded postseason so half the fucking league got in.
Deflect all you want.
Nuff said!
Well look...he took a $60 million team to an AL Pennant and great memories. Great year can't be distilled to one bad decision.
Good to be in LA.
Yeah? Have fun with that.
You must be so much fun at parties
Pathetic
Hard to believe both those guys didn’t even lift their bat. I was taught at a young age to always swing with two strikes if it’s close. I guess those two didn’t have a father like mine.
Pathetic
Dupe calling something pathetic - now that's comedy
Get well soon Red. Enjoy your off season.
And he pitched quite well to get it, too. Won't hear the snark about how he can't pitch in the postseason anymore.
Yep..
https://youtu.be/_9KxHOLQ40A - ( New Window )
The Rays found a new superstar in Arozerana. Both teams have a lot to be proud of.
The Rays found a new superstar in Arozerana. Both teams have a lot to be proud of.
Well said. I’m very happy for Clayton Kershaw of all of them. To be as great as he is, I’m glad he finally won it all and got his ring.
I actually liked his speech....very uplifting and he thanked everyone who needed to be recognized.
Oh well, at least Tampa won the Stanley Cup, so maybe the fans are still celebrating that.
Lol yeah they knew
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LOL
Well look...he took a $60 million team to an AL Pennant and great memories. Great year can't be distilled to one bad decision.
But you have to admit that was a major choke job and clear instance of overthinking shit, right? And on the biggest stage— game 6 of the WS. Mookie even said that pitching change was basically the only thing they had hope of saving them (he said it in as respectful a way as you could imagine but that’s what he said).
There are a lot of instances where I understand taking a guy out at that point... this was far from one of them. For instance Roberts taking Kershaw out last night was controversial but made fine sense because it’s not like Kershaw was 100% lights out all night. But when a guy is on fire and clearly in total command it doesn’t take a baseball genius (or even novice) to know that guy has earned a chance to at least finish 6 damn innings. Especially when he’s clearly your ace and it’s obviously not a fluke of some sort.
With the way Snell was pitching and the success he’d had against that top of the lineup? 0/6 with 6 K’s ??? 6 K’s. It’s not like on the previous at bat Mookie had found a way to time the pitches up and hit a loud ass out. He and the other Dodger BEST hitters looked like scrubs striking out against Snell.
With a lineup as talented as the Dodgers Mookie-Seager-Turner you take your chances with the guy who just sat all 3 of them down 2x in a row, because chances are any random (even above average) reliever you throw in there is likely to put your lead in danger simply because those guys are so good. And he pulls him right then and there simply because the #9 hitter gets a hit. Snell looked locked in, and that was only the 2nd hit he allowed all night. At that point he had earn a chance to finish out 6 innings. Some managers these days really seem to act like no pitcher in history has ever completed a full game (and I’m not even talking about a full game, I’m talking about 6 or 7 innings).
I think the moment was finally a little too big for Cash and he wasn’t thinking clearly on this one.
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In comment 15026798 Saquads26 said:
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LOL
Well look...he took a $60 million team to an AL Pennant and great memories. Great year can't be distilled to one bad decision.
But you have to admit that was a major choke job and clear instance of overthinking shit, right? And on the biggest stage— game 6 of the WS. Mookie even said that pitching change was basically the only thing they had hope of saving them (he said it in as respectful a way as you could imagine but that’s what he said).
There are a lot of instances where I understand taking a guy out at that point... this was far from one of them. For instance Roberts taking Kershaw out last night was controversial but made fine sense because it’s not like Kershaw was 100% lights out all night. But when a guy is on fire and clearly in total command it doesn’t take a baseball genius (or even novice) to know that guy has earned a chance to at least finish 6 damn innings. Especially when he’s clearly your ace and it’s obviously not a fluke of some sort.
With the way Snell was pitching and the success he’d had against that top of the lineup? 0/6 with 6 K’s ??? 6 K’s. It’s not like on the previous at bat Mookie had found a way to time the pitches up and hit a loud ass out. He and the other Dodger BEST hitters looked like scrubs striking out against Snell.
With a lineup as talented as the Dodgers Mookie-Seager-Turner you take your chances with the guy who just sat all 3 of them down 2x in a row, because chances are any random (even above average) reliever you throw in there is likely to put your lead in danger simply because those guys are so good. And he pulls him right then and there simply because the #9 hitter gets a hit. Snell looked locked in, and that was only the 2nd hit he allowed all night. At that point he had earn a chance to finish out 6 innings. Some managers these days really seem to act like no pitcher in history has ever completed a full game (and I’m not even talking about a full game, I’m talking about 6 or 7 innings).
I think the moment was finally a little too big for Cash and he wasn’t thinking clearly on this one.
I agree, Cash will be severely criticized all off season because of that decision. Too bad, because he is a good manager and has done a lot with little.
I think maybe he was thinking of game 2 when Snell was also dominating the Dodgers for 4 2/3 and then the Dodgers woke up somewhat but getting 2 runs. At that time, Cash took out Snell after 4 2/3 and no one criticized him for it because they won and the bullpen pitched beautifully.
Last night was very similar. Snell had 9 Ks in game 2 and had a similar number in game 6. So, maybe Cash was thinking along those lines, plus Cash really believes in his bullpen, even though Anderson had not been pitching lights out in the post season.
Analytics is great if it is a tool for managing and not the manager itself.
Congrats to the Dodgers, they were truly the best team in baseball this year.
Snell has never made it out of the 6th inning ever in his playoff career, the Dodgers and Cash know this. He’s barely made it out of the 5th.
I’m willing to bet the gameplan was to pull him after 4 but was left in once he got through without any base runners. And then he let a runner on with the heart of the order up and that was that.
Logical decision based on Snells history and being seen that 3rd time around.
Snell has never made it out of the 6th inning ever in his playoff career, the Dodgers and Cash know this. He’s barely made it out of the 5th.
I’m willing to bet the gameplan was to pull him after 4 but was left in once he got through without any base runners. And then he let a runner on with the heart of the order up and that was that.
Logical decision based on Snells history and being seen that 3rd time around.
Yep....I think you hit it on the head here. Like I said, did you hear any of the talking heads complain about his 5th inning yank in game 2, a game they won? 9ks in just 4 2/3! Nope, no one was complaining, but because they lost, you will hear them for weeks and weeks complain.
Oh well, I’m more concerned about Tampa’s football team, not their baseball team.
Just have to disagree. Kershaw has sucked in the playoffs and WS throughout his career, yet he still pitched.
Kenley Jensen also blows in WS and yet they threw him out there to lose again the other night.
As dominant as Snell was, you ride with him. He is the Ace of the staff. Anderson had sucked during the playoffs, why was he brought it? Maybe it was more a poor choice of reliever, more than pulling Snell, but I would have left Snell in at that point.
People can say there shouldn't be an asterix, but there literally (and I literally mean literally) has to be an asterix next to their name in the list of WS Champions to explain this was a COVID shortened season where schedules were changed, new rules were implemented, etc.
I’d question the guy he replaced him with, that’s fair. But pulling him was a logical move that has a precedence of working well.
If he left in Snell, and Snell did what he's done this season and gotten roughed up the third time through the order, he would have gotten some criticism from attentive fans who saw it happen to Snell all season, but hte majority of people wouldn't have blamed Cash-- they would have said Snell pitched a great game, but then lost it a bit, and the bats weren't enough to overcome it. That would have been the safe play for Cash's reputation.
Does that mean that there aren't arguments for leaving in Snell? Of course not. There will be plenty of articles arguing to leave in Snell, including from a data perspective. Because there are a lot of variables involved.
But I respect Cash for playing to win and going with the decision-making system that got him and the Rays to where the are, performing above expectations all season. It didn't work out, and it sucks for him that he has to wear the entire blame for it.
Did he pick the right releiver? I don't know. Would Snell have continued to dominate? Perhaps, though past performance suggets otherwise.
Overall, it was a hell of a series and a hell of a postseason.
And as as Yankees fan, it has been a real treat to watch Mookie play without having to root against him. What a fun, special player.
It worked before. He also did it with Morton in game 7 of the ALCS who was dealing.
And as as Yankees fan, it has been a real treat to watch Mookie play without having to root against him. What a fun, special player.
Good post, agree about both Kershaw and Betts
I guess that answers my question. Congrats!
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That was a horrible move, if it was an analytical move it was a horrible move. In conclusion it was a horrible move no matter any way you slice it..
It worked before. He also did it with Morton in game 7 of the ALCS who was dealing.
Doesnt make it a good move, sure it may work andnit could of worked laat night, but that doesnt mean it was the right move..
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That was a horrible move, if it was an analytical move it was a horrible move. In conclusion it was a horrible move no matter any way you slice it..
It worked before. He also did it with Morton in game 7 of the ALCS who was dealing.
Gives us all something to jaw about for a week or so!
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In comment 15027002 nygiants16 said:
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That was a horrible move, if it was an analytical move it was a horrible move. In conclusion it was a horrible move no matter any way you slice it..
It worked before. He also did it with Morton in game 7 of the ALCS who was dealing.
Doesnt make it a good move, sure it may work andnit could of worked laat night, but that doesnt mean it was the right move..
I can just say the same thing, doesn't make it a bad move.
Baseball arguments are the worst in sports, IMO. Literally every move that doesn't work is considered bad by a large contingent of fans.
They don't make the WS without this strategy in all likelihood. Snell can't get out of the 5th in most of his playoff outings - that's a fact.
So now here we are. You get to say its a bad move whether it worked or not. Its pointless to discuss.
Analytics is great if it is a tool for managing and not the manager itself.
Congrats to the Dodgers, they were truly the best team in baseball this year.
C'mon. Fell asleep? Before Cash pulled Snell? Hard to credit. The "analytics" re batters third time around are BS when facing a great pitcher who is on his game. They were not derived from such classic performances by a great pitcher being great. They are derived from treating all pitchers as meat. Nuts to that.
The whole "feel" thing is stupid too. It suggests that Cash didn't "feel" Snell pitching well. Its beyond stupid.
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I'm happy for Kershaw, a generational talent who hasn't been as good in the postseason, but whose performances have been skewed by some abysmal luck. Aside from getting shelled in 2017 by a cheating Astros-- in Game 5 he threw 51 breaking balls and there were zero whiffs by Astros batters. They knew what was coming. Even worse, going back to 2014, when he has been pulled from games, the Dodgers bullpen have allowed 14 of the last 15 inherited runners to score, including the last 11 in a row! For context, I believe on average that number is under 30%.
And as as Yankees fan, it has been a real treat to watch Mookie play without having to root against him. What a fun, special player.
Good post, agree about both Kershaw and Betts
Agreed. I'm happy that Kershaw will atleast have this solid World Series post-season run to help keep the "loser" label away from him. He's arguably the best of his era, I'm glad he got one.
Betts is a special player. Like most baseball fans, I firmly believe Mike Trout is the best player in the game and a generational talent. However, Betts has solidified himself as the clear 2nd best position player in the sport if he wasn't already. He's the only guy close to Trout. He honestly should've been a Red Sox player for life, can't believe Boston didn't make that happen. I'm glad I could root for him this post-season.
Analytics existed when Bumgarner pitched and he was left in because he's a much better pitcher than Snell (especially in the playoffs).
Completely fine. My only issue is people chalking everything up to analytics when it really isn't. He did this in Snells last outing and in Morton's in a game 7. And then the #9 hitter gets on and Betts is up, well, we know how that could go.
The question should be who he brought in, IMO.
I think the comment around it being analytics is the fact that he automatically pulled him out because it was going to be the 3rd time. While the pure numbers may have very well supported it, Cash didn't allow for the fact that Snell was absolutely dealing, and this game could very well have been the one time he got past the 3rd time through the lineup.
The worst outcome would have been a Betts HR, which would have put them down 2-1. Not ideal, but not a game ender, either. Betts had not only been struggling all series long, but he was also lost in his two earlier AB's. Sure, he could have figured something out in that third AB (and yes, I'm aware Betts hit a HR vs. a different pitcher in the 8th), but as mentioned, Snell was dealing. Cash didn't even go out to the mound and ask Snell how he was feeling, talk strategy, etc - he signaled to the pen even before crossing the foul line. To me, that meant he was solely following the numbers.
They beat the Yankees ASSES this year with 25% of the payroll so who can say they’re wrong?
But there has to be some eyeballs too. If a guy is pitching out of mind on a certain night there needs to be acknowledgement of that.
Especially in an elimination game all that spreadsheet shit needs to go out the window. Being a slave to analytics burned them and even though I was rooting for the Rays I’m glad it did.
I do believe that Cash wanted to pull him if he let up any hit. I don't believe he would have pulled him with none on and 2 out.
And wanted to get a righty/righty matchup. It was going to be Betts third look at Snell.That reliever's one job was to get Mookie Betts out and didn't do it.
I know two lefties followed, but that's one of their very best bullpen guys and if he gets Betts out, there are two outs, man on first.
Players have to do their jobs and in this case, he didn't.
The move was consistent with how Tampa played the entire year. Tough to critcize him.
I do believe that Cash wanted to pull him if he let up any hit. I don't believe he would have pulled him with none on and 2 out.
Understood re 9 hitter. But the top three hitters were 0-6 with 6 K's.
Re 2 out and none on - yes, that would have been interesting to see what Cash did there; if he pulled him them, then clearly he was simply following analytics.
Snell didn't blow the lead. Cash didn't blow the lead. Anderson did.
Leaving a pitcher in too long who gives up a lead is foolish, but if he muscles through one more inning, it is "gritty". Remember Pedro being left in too long? A reliever going an extra inning than normal works sometimes, it backfires others. And the result dictates the narrative.
The Dodgers have been getting clutch hits all series. They could have done it against Snell the 3rd time around. They DID do it to the relievers.
The following is all from Connor Kurcon over at 6th man rotation. The link to the thread is below, but I"ve copied it here.
It's worth noting that Snell went 5 1/3 innings, gave up 2 hits, had 9 strikeouts, and allowed 0 walks, leaving a runner on 1st. So while the parameters he sets aren't identical, it's a large enough sample to show some interesting information, including performances that were both better and worse than Snell's. It also doesn't account for pitch count, and I hope there are follow up threads that look at this aspect as well.
Connor Kurcon
@ckurcon
I've gone back and forth re: the Blake Snell decision, but here's an interesting number (1/ )
From 2017-2020, there have been 202 starts in which the SP went 5 innings, struck out 9+ hitters, walked 1 or fewer, and allowed 1 or fewer runs. Let's call these starts "Snells" (idk)
For the most part, these 202 "Snells" were, unsurprisingly, a majority of the time from the game's most elite pitchers. So we're not dealing with a sample of mediocre pitchers that got lucky for 5 innings. This is 202 pitchers of Snell's caliber (or better) pitching just as well.
In the 202 Snells, the ERA was 0.62 thru 5 IP
181 of these pitchers came back out for the 6th. In a large number of these starts, the pitcher was beginning to face the top of the lineup for the 3rd time
In the 6th inning, the 181 pitchers allowed 72 runs* in 167.2 IP (3.86 ERA)
* and this doesn't even include the players they left on base!
My point in all this, of course, is that the narrative that "Blake Snell was dealing, therefore you keep him in" means nothing.
All of these pitchers were just as good (or better) as Blake Snell and pitching just as well (or better).
They were "shoving", "momentum", etc.
The correct choice, on average, for these 202 starts, was to bring in a good RP. (Not saying Anderson was the right choice for Tampa)
And if you don't buy into all that, that's fine.
But, imo, you'd really need to have a compelling argument as to why the 200 similar starts/starters before Blake "collapsed" and why Blake was destined for a better outcome (/end)
Separately, it's also worth considering that Snell didn't go more than 5 and 2/3 innings all season. THis strategy with his starts is what the Rays did all season, and so it's not like they made some departure from what has worked for them this whole way.
https://twitter.com/ckurcon/status/1321483776141205506 - ( New Window )
To put that in perspective only 23 players this year (less than 1 batter per team) had an OPS above .900
You can say what you personally would do and that's completely fine. But I don't support the idea that it was a stupid decision - everything i'm watching (feel) and reading (analytics) says the opposite.
Snell just isn't in that stratosphere as a pitcher and hasn't earned that long of a leash. Cash knows that. The decisions he makes are because of that. Part of that is "analytics" but a lot of it is watching what happens later in the game and Snell simply struggles (as the data in Paul's post suggests).
Leaving a pitcher in too long who gives up a lead is foolish, but if he muscles through one more inning, it is "gritty". Remember Pedro being left in too long? A reliever going an extra inning than normal works sometimes, it backfires others. And the result dictates the narrative.
The Dodgers have been getting clutch hits all series. They could have done it against Snell the 3rd time around. They DID do it to the relievers.
Well I mean yeah, the result will always dictate the narrative, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t the wrong decision. A lot of people questioned the move at the time. Of course it’s not ALWAYS the right decision to leave the guy in, but every situation is different. Snell was only 5 1/3 innings in, 73 pitches, had only allowed 1 hard hit ball all night, and had struck out the entire top of the order 2x in a row. And they took him out when the top of the order was coming up (3 of the best hitters in baseball who Snell was having great success against). This was nothing like the Pedro decision IMO. That was much later in the game and pitch count. If there was ever a decision that would’ve clearly been worth questioning whether the analytics told the whole story of what was happening at that moment, this was the one.
Like Paul said above, the "safe" decision would have been to leave him in (for Cash), but it doesn't make it the right one, either.
Would this situation had ended differently if Snell had been left in? We don't know. If it followed past patterns, then no.
They pulled snell, but they only scored 1 run.