I know the game has passed but interesting take on this by the guys at fantasy pros on Gallmans run on 1st and 10 where he gains nine yards but the refs give him the 1st down. Who know how this would have played out.
Why Smart People Make Suboptimal Choices - (
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The thinking is we can burn another 40 seconds off the clock, at least. Assuming we do eventually pick up the 1st down.
And this is basically the opposite of what Vrabel did a few weeks ago. In that case, the Titans were trailing and (IIRC) their opposition similarly picked up 9(?) yards on 1st leading to a 2nd and 1(? it was definitely <5 yards). Instead of giving them an extra 1-2 chances to pick up the first (and kill 40 secs between each play), Vrabel forced the Titans into a 12 man penalty and gave them the 1st.
Boils down to the odds of converting a 2nd and 1 are >80% even with an offense as bad as the Giants (though Gallman was running well at that point).
2nd and 1 gives us another play (or two):
1. Picks up the first on 2nd and 1 - Giants burn 40 more secs than if they had gotten the 1st
2. Stuffed on 2nd, picks up the first on 3rd and 1 - Giants burn 80 more secs than if they had gotten the 1st
3. <20% chance they get stuffed twice and have to punt, which is the only scenario that is worse than picking up the first immediately (and with hindsight, would've burned roughly the same amount of time since the 3rd down play I believe was the pass to Engram).
That's true. But let's assume we did challenge it and then picked up the 1st on the 2nd and 1.
Even if the next two plays go the same, I believe the 3rd down would've come after the 2 minute warning. Or at least forced the Eagles into using an extra TO. Either option increases the Giants chances of holding on.
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if he doesnt get the first down the strategy changes and perhaps we win the game?
The thinking is we can burn another 40 seconds off the clock, at least. Assuming we do eventually pick up the 1st down.
Not sure I agree, though at the time I was thinking exactly the same...it should have been second and 1. My thinking was they would have forced a minimum of 1 more time out used by the Eagles. Seeing as they had two when they got the ball back, and didn't even need to use one of them, who knows if it would have helped.
TIME and play selection.. It gives us 30 seconds more to run off and at least one more play before the first down. It isn't a bad question as it does change strategy.