|
|
|
| Quote: |
| Nick Chubb's 59-yard run all but closed out the Cleveland Browns' 10-7 win over the Houston Texans on Sunday. His decision to step out of bounds at the 1-yard line, instead of running into the end zone for a touchdown that would've covered the point spread, was painful for the betting public. Chubb took a pitch on a third-and-3 with 1:07 to play, juked a defender and cut up the left sideline and into the clear. The Browns, who were favored by 4.5, were clinging to a 3-point lead. The Texans had no timeouts, so Chubb said the plan was for him to pick up the first down then give himself up, allowing the Browns to run out the remaining seconds by kneeling down. At the Texans' 1-yard line, with no defender close, Chubb took a sharp left turn and went out of bounds. The Browns kneeled down on the final two plays and sealed a 3-point victory for their sixth win of the season. "I got a call from the coaches, from [quarterback] Baker [Mayfield] to not score, get a first down to end the game. So that's what I did," Chubb said after the game. "Luckily the run was a little longer because I didn't think about it until the last 10 yards." The Browns were supported heavily by the betting public. The line opened at Cleveland -2.5, but was bet up to -3.5 by Friday and closed at -4.5 at most sportsbooks. |
It would have been a two score game with under a min left.
the two kneel downs at the 1 yard line were probably as risky as the game would have been otherwise.
It would have been a two score game with under a min left.
the two kneel downs at the 1 yard line were probably as risky as the game would have been otherwise.
Correct:
So he took the handoff and got his yards. Can't say I blame him. Don't offer guys contracts that offer money for yards and TDs, and expect players not to take advantage in the service of "Team First."
I was laying 3 on the cards and thinking I was going to push but the cards decided not to go for extra point and kneel during two point conversion
That’s why they call it gambling
Quote:
there really didn't make much difference.
It would have been a two score game with under a min left.
the two kneel downs at the 1 yard line were probably as risky as the game would have been otherwise.
Correct:
Quote:
ESPN's win probability metric showed Cleveland had a greater than 99.9% chance of winning whether Chubb scored to put the Browns up nine with an extra point pending or decided to step out of bounds and let Mayfield kneel down to run off the final seconds.
If they got the ball back the Texans have 0.1% chance of winning. If they don't get the ball back, 0.00%. Good play by Chubb.
Quote:
In comment 15046660 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
there really didn't make much difference.
It would have been a two score game with under a min left.
the two kneel downs at the 1 yard line were probably as risky as the game would have been otherwise.
Correct:
Quote:
ESPN's win probability metric showed Cleveland had a greater than 99.9% chance of winning whether Chubb scored to put the Browns up nine with an extra point pending or decided to step out of bounds and let Mayfield kneel down to run off the final seconds.
If they got the ball back the Texans have 0.1% chance of winning. If they don't get the ball back, 0.00%. Good play by Chubb.
The probability of the Browns fumbling the ball on the knee downs is the same as them of losing the game
This would have made it a two score game with less than a minute. I don't know what the probability difference between that and a potential fumble on the kneel down is, but i assume either decsion had a close to zero probability difference on the outcome of the game.
This isn't an Ahmad Bradhsaw situation either where you want to run the clock down and kick a FG either.