Metsmerized
@Metsmerized
Source: Mets Showing Interest in Corey Kluber, Charlie Morton, Mike Minor
1. Yes, but only WITH an Odorizzi, Tanaka, Musgrove addition
2. Yes 100%
3. 4.64 FIP, declining stuff, again only if in conjunction with a good arm
MLB.com
Mets get: SS Francisco Lindor, C Austin Hedges
Indians get: SS Andrés Giménez, 2B/OF Jeff McNeil, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Mets' No. 5 prospect), RHP Ryley Gilliam (Mets' No. 25 prospect)
Hell no
MLBTR predicts 1 year 6m btw. I think that's close to what I'd guess.
If I were the Mets I'd try to get him on a 2 year 10m or something like that in return for him being flexible to pitch out of the BP or rotation depending on need.
Eric,
We are going around and around in circles so I'll end it here, Minor is getting a guaranteed rotation spot from someone. The Covid impact may/will impact his salary, it does not impact how few FA SP there are. Unless he doesn't want to start for some reason, he will.
MLBTR predicts 1 year 6m btw. I think that's close to what I'd guess.
If I were the Mets I'd try to get him on a 2 year 10m or something like that in return for him being flexible to pitch out of the BP or rotation depending on need.
Fangraphs
Type Years AAV Total
Craig Edwards 2 $7.0 M $14.0 M
Median Crowdsource 2 $10.0 M $20.0 M
Avg Crowdsource 1.96 $10.1 M $19.7 M
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but I don't see that happening in this market.
MLBTR predicts 1 year 6m btw. I think that's close to what I'd guess.
If I were the Mets I'd try to get him on a 2 year 10m or something like that in return for him being flexible to pitch out of the BP or rotation depending on need.
Eric,
We are going around and around in circles so I'll end it here, Minor is getting a guaranteed rotation spot from someone. The Covid impact may/will impact his salary, it does not impact how few FA SP there are. Unless he doesn't want to start for some reason, he will.
Do we know that he's dead set on wanting a starting spot? Honest question. Is it not possible $ is more important to him? Or playing on team that has a shot to win?
Either way I feel pretty confident he's unlikely to get a multi-year offer - which is why my strategy would be to offer up a 2nd year in return for being open to pitching out of the pen.
It goes without saying someone could always offer more money, I just don't see that happening in this situation.
"Minor turns 33 in December and he’s not exactly hitting the free-agent market on a high note. With teams cutting costs because of the pandemic and an industry-wide drop in revenues, it’s difficult to forecast the market, but Minor could be looking at a one-year deal under $10 million.
Nonetheless, Minor will have plenty of action this winter. His resume, his left-handedness and his versatility will make him a decent candidate for a bounceback season, and he could be attractive to teams looking for accomplished rotation depth – like the Phillies."
"No, the Cubs won’t be in the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes after experiencing revenue losses in 2020 due to COVID-19. It’s also difficult for them and every other team to forecast 2021 revenues amid all the uncertainty around the coronavirus. But as the Cubs try to “thread the needle,” as Epstein said, retooling the roster under difficult financial circumstances while remaining competitive in 2021, A’s free agent Mike Minor makes a ton of sense.
If Lester doesn’t return, the Cubs will need a lefty to fill out a rotation projected to have four right-handers. Minor is coming off a down season and likely can be signed for a relatively low-cost, one- or two-year deal. "
...
"How much does a guy like Minor, with his profile and age and velocity and so on, get in a normal market? Well, I think about Kyle Gibson getting 3/$28 million and Jake Odorizzi getting 1/$17.8 million last year if you wanted rough comps, though those guys were each a bit younger. In this market, though? Coming off his worst year that includes a velocity decline, and pitching next year at age 33? It feels hard to see him getting more than one or two years at $8 to $10 million per year, but that’s us spitballing pretty aggressively on what the pandemic-impacted market could look like. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see a deal much smaller, or maybe even one slightly larger. It’s very, very hard to predict this year."
Link - ( New Window )
To me, he is a LH Seth Lugo.
@jonbecker_
·
38s
Smyly getting $11M off 26.1 (really good!) innings should be good news for just about every SP on the market, especially those who some might consider to be up a tier or two (Taijuan, Paxton, Morton, Odorizzi, etc.)
@jonbecker_
·
38s
Smyly getting $11M off 26.1 (really good!) innings should be good news for just about every SP on the market, especially those who some might consider to be up a tier or two (Taijuan, Paxton, Morton, Odorizzi, etc.)
Yeah that's an interesting and surprising contract imo. I guess Atlanta is really buying that 2.0 fip and 14k/9. It looks like his velo was up this year, not sure I'm buying though.
Smyly velocity chart - ( New Window )
It's just a gamble. I'd throw out his 2019 so it's really just a gamble on those 26 innings last year - that were probably as good as any other pitcher on the market other than Trevor Bauer last year.
I'd imagine Atlanta determined they don't have the $ for Bauer. And this is a gamble at spending less than 1/10 of what Bauer is going to cost for the hope that maybe Smyly was legit. I'm doubtful on it but like you said he doesn't need to replicate what he did last year to still be an ok value.
Smyly comes with a fair amount of injury risk, but the Braves are coming off a season in which they experienced near total rotation turnover, while still managing to come within a game of winning the pennant. They know how to handle some injury uncertainty. If Smyly can perform anywhere near his 2020 level, when he limited opposing hitters to a .198/.261/.297 line, the Braves will happily cash in on that upside.
Link - ( New Window )
lists @mets
as a potential fit for Rich Hill. Durability is a major?? Treated as an "extra" he'd be a solid luxury. But at 41, he shouldn't be relied upon for more than that
"The Mets’ primary focus this winter falls on pitching, catching and center field. So why, according to an industry source, have they expressed an interest in stud free-agent bat Marcell Ozuna?
Because their lineup leans to the left more than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Ozuna, who just turned 30, will be able to choose from myriad suitors, although his process might take a while thanks to both the COVID-induced Hot Stove slowdown and the collective bargaining over returning the designated hitter to the National League for next season. He spent 2020 with the Braves after signing a one-year, $18-million contract with them in January and rewarded their commitment with a .338/.431/.636 slash line in 60 games. His 18 homers, 56 RBIs and 145 total bases led the NL and his 267 plate appearances paced the entire major leagues as he arguably elevated his status more than any other hitter on this open market."
Link - ( New Window )
@PSLToFlushing
·
15m
#Mets should be looking under every rock this offseason. Ozuna can rake, but he is a pretty awkward fit as a guy that’s basically a DH at this point. He was -1 OAA in the outfield and spent most time at DH.
The Mets already have DH candidates in Alonso, Dom, Cano, JD Davis
He makea a million times more sense than Ozuna.
As does Arenado (at a different position).
And Lindor is a switch hitter (not as much HR power righty, but still good power and you can't bring in a lefty against him).
All better RH bat options to counter the lefty heavy lineup.
I am quite certain we are going to be reading a lot over the next decade that the smart teams of this past decade were the ones that realized how important defense is analytically. I think DRS and OAA are on the right track but I think we will see in the future the scale was off and the impact of defense was underestimated in the public data relative to what teams are seeing.
The phrase 'outs above average' really puts things into context. Outs are innings. If one team plays great defense to the point where their defense is almost limiting their opposition to 8 innings worth of outs, while the other team is poor on defense and giving them extra outs to the effect of 10 innings worth of outs, just think about that advantage. That seems extreme but how many times did we play Atlanta and see Andrleton Simmons make that many extra outs all by himself in single games over a series?
That was essentially the difference when we played KC in the WS - and that's why my #1 priority this offseason would be adding as many elite defenders at important positions as possible. And why I'd be very reluctant to trade the 1 elite defender we had last year (Gimenez).
Enjoyed that! Thanks, Metro!
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read. You start to wonder/realize the impact on the team without a good analytics dept. Link - ( New Window )
Any time. It was a very interesting read to me
Enjoyed that! Thanks, Metro!
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In comment 15048121 DanMetroMan said:
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read. You start to wonder/realize the impact on the team without a good analytics dept. Link - ( New Window )
Any time. It was a very interesting read to me
Enjoyed that! Thanks, Metro!
Absolutely cool to read these things. I bought an annual subscription to FG and think it’s been worth every dollar. I’ve grown to appreciate analytics a lot more. I’ve kind of given up understanding exactly how the sausage is made on some of the advance stats, but they’ve really been helpful in overcoming my eye-test prejudices when evaluating players.
You and some of the other regulars here and on NYFS have really shown how useful they are. Encouraging news about Rosario’s progress based in that article. Also, have to think Alderson’s GM encourages more shifting from Rojas’ defense. Seems like the Mets individual defense improved at 3, 4, 6 - but the team was not optimally positioned.
The coming deluge of non tenders. - ( New Window )
@mikemayerMMO
·
15h
Subtle change I just heard from Mets minor leaguer about new regime:
Lots of organizations send players balls for the offseason, the Mets were not doing this.
Well that’s different this year, some Mets minors leaguers received two boxes of balls yesterday.
@jonmorosi
Source: #Mets have requested permission to speak with #Indians GM Mike Chernoff about their president of baseball operations position. It’s not clear if Indians have granted it.
Adding to the intrigue: The Mets are one suitor for Francisco Lindor. @MLB
@MLBNetwork
@jonmorosi
Could Chris Antonetti and Sandy Alderson agree on a trade that sends Francisco Lindor and Mike Chernoff to the Mets for a package of players going to Cleveland? Would be a fascinating negotiation. Chernoff was a good infielder for the @PUTIGERS
. . . @MLBNetwork
@MLB
@Cut4
@jonmorosi
One more #Mets update: Sources say #Rays highly regarded executive Bobby Heck is under consideration for a top front-office role with Mets. Since he is not the Tampa Bay GM, he likely would be permitted to leave for a GM role (or higher) in New York. @MLBNetwork
@MLB
mentions Tim Naehring as someone @MetsGM
would love to hire but Naehring is disinterested in leaving @Yankees
. It's been long rumored the @Reds
job is the only one that might change that #Mets
@susanslusser
·
1m
It sounds as if David Forst is a target for the Mets, not surprising considering he's worked with Sandy Alderson the past two years. Forst always has turned down every opportunity elsewhere, but I wonder if this one might intrigue him, especially with A's dim financial picture.
Would Chernoff need to recuse himself from any Lindor discussions Sandy might be having (or are there no discussions until a GM is hired). Or if hired would he need to have someone else handle it?
I feel like since I read the Mets reached out to a bunch of free agents (reportedly) these trade discussions need to be happening too.
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like the Mets have zeroed in on Chernoff (if he wants the job) it's likely his. He and Heck would be a great combo.
Would Chernoff need to recuse himself from any Lindor discussions Sandy might be having (or are there no discussions until a GM is hired). Or if hired would he need to have someone else handle it?
I feel like since I read the Mets reached out to a bunch of free agents (reportedly) these trade discussions need to be happening too.
Don't see any reason to think that would be necessary. The Indians would be the ones making the call on pulling the trigger on the trade, they would be the ones deciding if the Mets return was the best offer. What advantage would the Mets have over other teams other than Chernoff's relationship with Antonetti? And Antonetti isn't going to trade Lindor to the Mets because he knows Chernoff or is friends with him.
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In comment 15049839 DanMetroMan said:
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like the Mets have zeroed in on Chernoff (if he wants the job) it's likely his. He and Heck would be a great combo.
Would Chernoff need to recuse himself from any Lindor discussions Sandy might be having (or are there no discussions until a GM is hired). Or if hired would he need to have someone else handle it?
I feel like since I read the Mets reached out to a bunch of free agents (reportedly) these trade discussions need to be happening too.
Don't see any reason to think that would be necessary. The Indians would be the ones making the call on pulling the trigger on the trade, they would be the ones deciding if the Mets return was the best offer. What advantage would the Mets have over other teams other than Chernoff's relationship with Antonetti? And Antonetti isn't going to trade Lindor to the Mets because he knows Chernoff or is friends with him.
What if they agree to a trade and then Chernoff is hired by the Mets.
Just seems like the Indians would want someone else more involved.
Chernoff has been rumored before and always sounded appealing, I'd think his presence would actually increase the chances of a Lindor trade. He knows what they are looking for and what their timeline/budget is. I'd guess there's a chance he'd be more likely to prioritize Lindor as a top target based on his firsthand experience. So if that's all the case and Chernoff does end up here, I'd imagine it could create the environment for a straightforward negotiation without a lot of the typical posturing and BS. Sandy/Chernoff/GM come up with an offer that will presumably be more on target with what CLE is looking for based on Chernoff's insight, then either it's close enough to hammer out a deal or everyone goes in a different direction because there's not a fit.