Metsmerized
@Metsmerized
Source: Mets Showing Interest in Corey Kluber, Charlie Morton, Mike Minor
1. Yes, but only WITH an Odorizzi, Tanaka, Musgrove addition
2. Yes 100%
3. 4.64 FIP, declining stuff, again only if in conjunction with a good arm
MLB.com
Mets get: SS Francisco Lindor, C Austin Hedges
Indians get: SS Andrés Giménez, 2B/OF Jeff McNeil, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Mets' No. 5 prospect), RHP Ryley Gilliam (Mets' No. 25 prospect)
Hell no
I wonder if we could take on Arenado's contract and get Story too. Why would Story re-sign in Colorado, the franchise is years away from competing.
I wonder if we could take on Arenado's contract and get Story too. Why would Story re-sign in Colorado, the franchise is years away from competing.
As rich as Cohen is, probably not. Story and Arenado combine to make 52 million in 2021 and that would put the Mets AT the luxury tax threshold without adding a C, BP help or rotation help. I'm sure Cohen will spend but that's likely far too much to be realistic.
If push came to shove I'd probably relent because Lindor is a legitimate MVP candidate, but 5 years of Gimenez AND Mcneil, AND Crow Armstrong, AND more? No way. If they want Gimenez the rest of the deal is lesser pieces, and honestly I'd probably just move on to Springer or JTR who cost nothing but $.
Hell, you could probably get JTR and Springer and keep Gimenez for roughly the same total $ investment a Lindor extension would cost.
With Sandy involved, I'm reasonably sure a trade for lindor wouldn't look like that or it wouldn't happen.
With Sandy involved, I'm reasonably sure a trade for lindor wouldn't look like that or it wouldn't happen.
agreed. I actually don't even think Sandy would give up Gimenez. I think he'd sooner just move on to another target (that also doesn't cost $300m+).
There is no way the Mets are letting a non-1st round pick stop them from chasing the top of the FA class. It was the secondary guys like Gausman who already accepted his, that might have impacted their valuation. Realmuto/Springer/Bauer? yeah no.
Just a guess, but our last few picks in that range were Ginn, SWR, Wolf. Several years ago Kay, Fulmer, Vientos in that range.
So I think the pick would be valued at a top 5-10 prospect. And that's likely the BS Toronto's GM fed BVW to make him part with 2 such players for Stroman. "You get 2 years of Stroman and if he walks you will recoup 1 similar prospect".
This was enough for me to say NO. McNeil goes nowhere. He's a building block. We have control for plenty of time and he has an elite bat basically any position they put him in. I'm okay moving minor leaguers. This system is bound to get a lot deeper soonish with the investments being made. Deal youth for major league talent is fine if you can replenish that youth.
No. They eliminated losing your 1st. You still lose a pick/picks. It's now your 3rd highest pick.
Anderson’s response: “There are only two currencies in baseball — one is players, the other is money. If you are not spending money, you have to spend players. … We have to be careful how we use players in transactions.”
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Tommy Kahnle is considering multiple 2-year deals. Very effective Yankees reliever had Tommy John surgery in August and is hoping to be back sometime late in the 2021 season.
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picks being forfeited for QO'd players this offseason as part of the RTP agreement?
No. They eliminated losing your 1st. You still lose a pick/picks. It's now your 3rd highest pick.
Oh didn't know about that change. Much easier pill for teams to swallow. The first round pick rule was awful for the players.
Got it - I thought it went away entirely but agree with you, it's an almost meaningless loss given the state of the org. They will still be able to find a way to deploy a similar strategy with their draft pool if they want to.
-I hope the Mets kick the tires on Kim. He's only 25 years old and has star upside.
Anderson’s response: “There are only two currencies in baseball — one is players, the other is money. If you are not spending money, you have to spend players. … We have to be careful how we use players in transactions.”
I think it's more a shot at the Wilpons than BVW. We made terrible trades over their entire ownership because they preferred spending players than money. That quote explains why Sandy made so few moves in his previous 8 years here.
I'm glad to hear them seemingly in on almost ever P - they need a bunch of them.
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SignTrevorBauer
@BayouBurrow9
·
13h
@StevenACohen2
I’ve had 14 steak tacos in the last 3 days, do I have a problem or should I go back for more tomorrow?
Steven Cohen
@StevenACohen2
Replying to
@BayouBurrow9
No, that is perfectly normal
I'd be adding Minor as a BP arm and possible swing guy not as a starter.
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would be fine as the "second" SP they add this off-season but he's the best arm they add (which I doubt) then Sandy/Cohen's first off-season was a dud.
I'd be adding Minor as a BP arm and possible swing guy not as a starter.
I'd be very surprised if he settles for that. Someone will guarantee him a rotation spot. He's easily a top 10 available FA SP (that's not saying much I know) but with so many teams needing pitching...
Otherwise I'd imagine he is looking at a Wacha type contract to be a starter (at best).
Mike Minor Velo Chart - ( New Window )
Otherwise I'd imagine he is looking at a Wacha type contract to be a starter (at best). Mike Minor Velo Chart - ( New Window )
1 year 4 guarantee? I don't see that at all. I don't particularly want Minor but 9.85 K/9, was still on pace to be worth 3ish fWAR and has was worth 4.1 fWAR in 2019, 2.5 in 2018. He also held hitters to a .194 BAA second half. Wacha was coming off 2 lost seasons. I think you're going to be very surprised. I see Minor getting something like 1 for 10 or even 2 for 16 and a guaranteed rotation spot.
After missing the 2015-16 seasons due to labrum surgery, Minor enjoyed a strong three-year run that included ’18-19 seasons spent in the Rangers’ rotation, during which he posted a 3.84 ERA, 4.32 FIP and 6.7 WAR across 365.1 innings and made his first All-Star team. His 2020 season did not go so well; despite a strikeout rate that jumped from 23.2% to 25.9%, his walk and homer rates climbed as well, the former from 7.9% to 8.4%, the latter from 1.30 per nine to 1.75. Even so, where Minor’s ERA rose by nearly two runs (from 3.59 to an unsightly 5.56), his FIP only moved from 4.25 to 4.64. He wasn’t quite as bad as you might believe at first glance.
That said, Minor’s average fastball velocity dropped by a full two miles per hour (from 92.6 to 90.6), and by his own admission, his stuff simply wasn’t the same. His hard-hit and barrel rates both jumped substantially, and led to an August 31 trade to the A’s; he allowed more runs than innings pitched in three of his five appearances (the ones that weren’t against Seattle). Had he hit the market last winter, he’d have easily surpassed his previous three-year, $28 million deal, but that seems unlikely now, even in a relatively thin free agent market. – JJ
22. Mike Minor, LHP, OAK, age 33
Minor earned down-ballot AL Cy Young support in 2019, then took a big statistical step backward in Texas in '20 before the A’s acquired him at the Deadline. But some of that could be attributable to a compromised throwing program prior to Summer Camp. His age will limit his contract, but he’s still a viable left-handed arm.
Link - ( New Window )
It's nice to add a real star SS and a catcher, but it would have to be the first of many moves.
MLBTR predicts 1 year 6m btw. I think that's close to what I'd guess.
If I were the Mets I'd try to get him on a 2 year 10m or something like that in return for him being flexible to pitch out of the BP or rotation depending on need.
MLBTR predicts 1 year 6m btw. I think that's close to what I'd guess.
If I were the Mets I'd try to get him on a 2 year 10m or something like that in return for him being flexible to pitch out of the BP or rotation depending on need.
Eric,
We are going around and around in circles so I'll end it here, Minor is getting a guaranteed rotation spot from someone. The Covid impact may/will impact his salary, it does not impact how few FA SP there are. Unless he doesn't want to start for some reason, he will.
MLBTR predicts 1 year 6m btw. I think that's close to what I'd guess.
If I were the Mets I'd try to get him on a 2 year 10m or something like that in return for him being flexible to pitch out of the BP or rotation depending on need.
Fangraphs
Type Years AAV Total
Craig Edwards 2 $7.0 M $14.0 M
Median Crowdsource 2 $10.0 M $20.0 M
Avg Crowdsource 1.96 $10.1 M $19.7 M
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but I don't see that happening in this market.
MLBTR predicts 1 year 6m btw. I think that's close to what I'd guess.
If I were the Mets I'd try to get him on a 2 year 10m or something like that in return for him being flexible to pitch out of the BP or rotation depending on need.
Eric,
We are going around and around in circles so I'll end it here, Minor is getting a guaranteed rotation spot from someone. The Covid impact may/will impact his salary, it does not impact how few FA SP there are. Unless he doesn't want to start for some reason, he will.
Do we know that he's dead set on wanting a starting spot? Honest question. Is it not possible $ is more important to him? Or playing on team that has a shot to win?
Either way I feel pretty confident he's unlikely to get a multi-year offer - which is why my strategy would be to offer up a 2nd year in return for being open to pitching out of the pen.
It goes without saying someone could always offer more money, I just don't see that happening in this situation.
"Minor turns 33 in December and he’s not exactly hitting the free-agent market on a high note. With teams cutting costs because of the pandemic and an industry-wide drop in revenues, it’s difficult to forecast the market, but Minor could be looking at a one-year deal under $10 million.
Nonetheless, Minor will have plenty of action this winter. His resume, his left-handedness and his versatility will make him a decent candidate for a bounceback season, and he could be attractive to teams looking for accomplished rotation depth – like the Phillies."
"No, the Cubs won’t be in the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes after experiencing revenue losses in 2020 due to COVID-19. It’s also difficult for them and every other team to forecast 2021 revenues amid all the uncertainty around the coronavirus. But as the Cubs try to “thread the needle,” as Epstein said, retooling the roster under difficult financial circumstances while remaining competitive in 2021, A’s free agent Mike Minor makes a ton of sense.
If Lester doesn’t return, the Cubs will need a lefty to fill out a rotation projected to have four right-handers. Minor is coming off a down season and likely can be signed for a relatively low-cost, one- or two-year deal. "
...
"How much does a guy like Minor, with his profile and age and velocity and so on, get in a normal market? Well, I think about Kyle Gibson getting 3/$28 million and Jake Odorizzi getting 1/$17.8 million last year if you wanted rough comps, though those guys were each a bit younger. In this market, though? Coming off his worst year that includes a velocity decline, and pitching next year at age 33? It feels hard to see him getting more than one or two years at $8 to $10 million per year, but that’s us spitballing pretty aggressively on what the pandemic-impacted market could look like. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see a deal much smaller, or maybe even one slightly larger. It’s very, very hard to predict this year."
Link - ( New Window )
To me, he is a LH Seth Lugo.
@jonbecker_
·
38s
Smyly getting $11M off 26.1 (really good!) innings should be good news for just about every SP on the market, especially those who some might consider to be up a tier or two (Taijuan, Paxton, Morton, Odorizzi, etc.)
@jonbecker_
·
38s
Smyly getting $11M off 26.1 (really good!) innings should be good news for just about every SP on the market, especially those who some might consider to be up a tier or two (Taijuan, Paxton, Morton, Odorizzi, etc.)
Yeah that's an interesting and surprising contract imo. I guess Atlanta is really buying that 2.0 fip and 14k/9. It looks like his velo was up this year, not sure I'm buying though.
Smyly velocity chart - ( New Window )
It's just a gamble. I'd throw out his 2019 so it's really just a gamble on those 26 innings last year - that were probably as good as any other pitcher on the market other than Trevor Bauer last year.
I'd imagine Atlanta determined they don't have the $ for Bauer. And this is a gamble at spending less than 1/10 of what Bauer is going to cost for the hope that maybe Smyly was legit. I'm doubtful on it but like you said he doesn't need to replicate what he did last year to still be an ok value.
Smyly comes with a fair amount of injury risk, but the Braves are coming off a season in which they experienced near total rotation turnover, while still managing to come within a game of winning the pennant. They know how to handle some injury uncertainty. If Smyly can perform anywhere near his 2020 level, when he limited opposing hitters to a .198/.261/.297 line, the Braves will happily cash in on that upside.
Link - ( New Window )
lists @mets
as a potential fit for Rich Hill. Durability is a major?? Treated as an "extra" he'd be a solid luxury. But at 41, he shouldn't be relied upon for more than that
"The Mets’ primary focus this winter falls on pitching, catching and center field. So why, according to an industry source, have they expressed an interest in stud free-agent bat Marcell Ozuna?
Because their lineup leans to the left more than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Ozuna, who just turned 30, will be able to choose from myriad suitors, although his process might take a while thanks to both the COVID-induced Hot Stove slowdown and the collective bargaining over returning the designated hitter to the National League for next season. He spent 2020 with the Braves after signing a one-year, $18-million contract with them in January and rewarded their commitment with a .338/.431/.636 slash line in 60 games. His 18 homers, 56 RBIs and 145 total bases led the NL and his 267 plate appearances paced the entire major leagues as he arguably elevated his status more than any other hitter on this open market."
Link - ( New Window )
@PSLToFlushing
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15m
#Mets should be looking under every rock this offseason. Ozuna can rake, but he is a pretty awkward fit as a guy that’s basically a DH at this point. He was -1 OAA in the outfield and spent most time at DH.
The Mets already have DH candidates in Alonso, Dom, Cano, JD Davis
He makea a million times more sense than Ozuna.
As does Arenado (at a different position).
And Lindor is a switch hitter (not as much HR power righty, but still good power and you can't bring in a lefty against him).
All better RH bat options to counter the lefty heavy lineup.
I am quite certain we are going to be reading a lot over the next decade that the smart teams of this past decade were the ones that realized how important defense is analytically. I think DRS and OAA are on the right track but I think we will see in the future the scale was off and the impact of defense was underestimated in the public data relative to what teams are seeing.
The phrase 'outs above average' really puts things into context. Outs are innings. If one team plays great defense to the point where their defense is almost limiting their opposition to 8 innings worth of outs, while the other team is poor on defense and giving them extra outs to the effect of 10 innings worth of outs, just think about that advantage. That seems extreme but how many times did we play Atlanta and see Andrleton Simmons make that many extra outs all by himself in single games over a series?
That was essentially the difference when we played KC in the WS - and that's why my #1 priority this offseason would be adding as many elite defenders at important positions as possible. And why I'd be very reluctant to trade the 1 elite defender we had last year (Gimenez).
Enjoyed that! Thanks, Metro!
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read. You start to wonder/realize the impact on the team without a good analytics dept. Link - ( New Window )
Any time. It was a very interesting read to me
Enjoyed that! Thanks, Metro!
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In comment 15048121 DanMetroMan said:
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read. You start to wonder/realize the impact on the team without a good analytics dept. Link - ( New Window )
Any time. It was a very interesting read to me
Enjoyed that! Thanks, Metro!
Absolutely cool to read these things. I bought an annual subscription to FG and think it’s been worth every dollar. I’ve grown to appreciate analytics a lot more. I’ve kind of given up understanding exactly how the sausage is made on some of the advance stats, but they’ve really been helpful in overcoming my eye-test prejudices when evaluating players.
You and some of the other regulars here and on NYFS have really shown how useful they are. Encouraging news about Rosario’s progress based in that article. Also, have to think Alderson’s GM encourages more shifting from Rojas’ defense. Seems like the Mets individual defense improved at 3, 4, 6 - but the team was not optimally positioned.
The coming deluge of non tenders. - ( New Window )
@mikemayerMMO
·
15h
Subtle change I just heard from Mets minor leaguer about new regime:
Lots of organizations send players balls for the offseason, the Mets were not doing this.
Well that’s different this year, some Mets minors leaguers received two boxes of balls yesterday.
@jonmorosi
Source: #Mets have requested permission to speak with #Indians GM Mike Chernoff about their president of baseball operations position. It’s not clear if Indians have granted it.
Adding to the intrigue: The Mets are one suitor for Francisco Lindor. @MLB
@MLBNetwork
@jonmorosi
Could Chris Antonetti and Sandy Alderson agree on a trade that sends Francisco Lindor and Mike Chernoff to the Mets for a package of players going to Cleveland? Would be a fascinating negotiation. Chernoff was a good infielder for the @PUTIGERS
. . . @MLBNetwork
@MLB
@Cut4
@jonmorosi
One more #Mets update: Sources say #Rays highly regarded executive Bobby Heck is under consideration for a top front-office role with Mets. Since he is not the Tampa Bay GM, he likely would be permitted to leave for a GM role (or higher) in New York. @MLBNetwork
@MLB
mentions Tim Naehring as someone @MetsGM
would love to hire but Naehring is disinterested in leaving @Yankees
. It's been long rumored the @Reds
job is the only one that might change that #Mets
@susanslusser
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1m
It sounds as if David Forst is a target for the Mets, not surprising considering he's worked with Sandy Alderson the past two years. Forst always has turned down every opportunity elsewhere, but I wonder if this one might intrigue him, especially with A's dim financial picture.
Would Chernoff need to recuse himself from any Lindor discussions Sandy might be having (or are there no discussions until a GM is hired). Or if hired would he need to have someone else handle it?
I feel like since I read the Mets reached out to a bunch of free agents (reportedly) these trade discussions need to be happening too.
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like the Mets have zeroed in on Chernoff (if he wants the job) it's likely his. He and Heck would be a great combo.
Would Chernoff need to recuse himself from any Lindor discussions Sandy might be having (or are there no discussions until a GM is hired). Or if hired would he need to have someone else handle it?
I feel like since I read the Mets reached out to a bunch of free agents (reportedly) these trade discussions need to be happening too.
Don't see any reason to think that would be necessary. The Indians would be the ones making the call on pulling the trigger on the trade, they would be the ones deciding if the Mets return was the best offer. What advantage would the Mets have over other teams other than Chernoff's relationship with Antonetti? And Antonetti isn't going to trade Lindor to the Mets because he knows Chernoff or is friends with him.
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In comment 15049839 DanMetroMan said:
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like the Mets have zeroed in on Chernoff (if he wants the job) it's likely his. He and Heck would be a great combo.
Would Chernoff need to recuse himself from any Lindor discussions Sandy might be having (or are there no discussions until a GM is hired). Or if hired would he need to have someone else handle it?
I feel like since I read the Mets reached out to a bunch of free agents (reportedly) these trade discussions need to be happening too.
Don't see any reason to think that would be necessary. The Indians would be the ones making the call on pulling the trigger on the trade, they would be the ones deciding if the Mets return was the best offer. What advantage would the Mets have over other teams other than Chernoff's relationship with Antonetti? And Antonetti isn't going to trade Lindor to the Mets because he knows Chernoff or is friends with him.
What if they agree to a trade and then Chernoff is hired by the Mets.
Just seems like the Indians would want someone else more involved.
Chernoff has been rumored before and always sounded appealing, I'd think his presence would actually increase the chances of a Lindor trade. He knows what they are looking for and what their timeline/budget is. I'd guess there's a chance he'd be more likely to prioritize Lindor as a top target based on his firsthand experience. So if that's all the case and Chernoff does end up here, I'd imagine it could create the environment for a straightforward negotiation without a lot of the typical posturing and BS. Sandy/Chernoff/GM come up with an offer that will presumably be more on target with what CLE is looking for based on Chernoff's insight, then either it's close enough to hammer out a deal or everyone goes in a different direction because there's not a fit.