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Draft order

ray in arlington : 11/16/2020 11:22 pm
My weekly excursion into the NFL's underworld...


The tiebreak for draft order for non-playoff teams is Strength of Schedule (SOS). The familiar tiebreakers (head-to-head, conference record, etc.) only come into play if the SOS is the same for the 2 teams. Therefore a 4th place team can pick behind a 3rd place team (or even a 2nd place team).

At this point in the season, I just list by a projected SOS - the combined records of the 16 opponents. Later in the year I figure out which future games will add 1-1 to the SOS (i.e teams on our schedule playing each other) to get a more refined estimate.

(Note that the tiebreak info below is based on the assumption that all teams will play their complete schedule. It is not based on “if the draft were held today…”, as the games future opponents have played so far are included.)

1. NYJ 0-9 (-14.5)
2. JAC 1-8 (-8) [note JAC projected SOS is 6.5 games weaker than NYJ projected SOS, which means they are trending to pick ahead of NYJ in case of a tie]
3. WAS 2-7 (4.5; see below)
4. DAL 2-7 (4; see below)
5. LAC 2-7 (-2)
6. HOU 2-7 (-10) (pick traded to MIA)
7. CIN 2-6-1
8. NYG 3-7
9. CAR 3-7 (-8.5)
10. ATL 3-6 (-7.5)
11. DEN 3-6 (-11.5)
12. SF 4-6 (-5)
13. DET 4-5 (-2)
14. MIN 4-5 (-2)
15. NE 4-5 (-2.5)

The numbers in parentheses give the number of games back in projected SOS, e.g. NYG is 8.5 games weaker in projected SOS than CAR and NYG is 4 games stronger than DAL in projected SOS. Big negative numbers are good for NYG, big positive numbers are bad for NYG.

For SOS tiebreak vs other NFC East teams, one only needs to look at the combined wins of the 2 non-common opponents. For WAS (assuming both teams don’t make the playoffs) compare

WAS: DET + CAR = 7-12 combined record
NYG: CHI + TB = 12-8 combined record

Note that the NYG sweep over WAS does not determine draft order tiebreak unless these combined records end up the same.

DAL: ATL + MIN = 7-11 combined record
NYG: CHI + TB = 12-8 combined record

[note that at one point ATL was 0-5, MIN was 1-5, and CHI was 5-1]
No point caring about draft right now.  
Danny Dimes : 11/16/2020 11:45 pm : link
Wait till after the bengals game. If Giants come out of a bye with a handfull of players returning and they lose THEN we care about the draft but atm its fucking playoffs times
The crazy thing  
TrueBlue56 : 11/17/2020 5:58 am : link
Most likely 3 teams in the NFC East will be picking in the top 10. The division winner would probably pick in top 15 by their record, but will pick later due to winning the division and making the playoffs.
JonC : 11/17/2020 9:28 am : link
Ignore the troll, keep the info flowing.
I wonder if Washington  
ryanmkeane : 11/17/2020 10:47 am : link
would consider trading the farm for Lawrence.
RE: I wonder if Washington  
Jim in Tampa : 11/17/2020 10:53 am : link
In comment 15048868 ryanmkeane said:
would consider trading the farm for Lawrence.

If Lawrence is the type of QB prospect that many think he is, I sincerly doubt the team with the top overall pick trades out of that spot, regardless of what is offered.

This notion by some (not necessarily you) that a team can offer "the farm" and get whatever they want is simply not true.
ryanmkeane : 11/17/2020 1:20 pm : link
it will likely be the Jets with that pick. You're telling me if a team like Washington (or another team) offers their #1 in 2021, plus their next two #1 picks, and likely more, you'd say no?

Jets can either keep Darnold who is still 23 years old by the way, or take another QB in the 2021 draft, and have a treasure trove of picks for years to come if a team wants Lawrence that bad.

Listen I get that Lawrence is a great prospect, but you'd have to be a moron to not consider all of those picks that they can get.
Think about what was given up in recent  
ryanmkeane : 11/17/2020 1:21 pm : link
QB trades, you'd have to think that Lawrence conversation starts with two additional 1st rounders (aside from the 2021 pick).
RE: Think about what was given up in recent  
Jim in Tampa : 11/17/2020 2:54 pm : link
In comment 15049041 ryanmkeane said:
QB trades, you'd have to think that Lawrence conversation starts with two additional 1st rounders (aside from the 2021 pick).

If Lawrence has the potential to be a top NFL QB for the next 15 years, no GM is going to risk trading his rights away....especially if it's the Jets who still haven't lived down taking O'Brien over Marino.

7 or 8 years from now chances are all the players in that potential "haul trade" will be out of the NFL, while Lawrence may still be in his prime.
I don't care where we pick  
UConn4523 : 11/17/2020 2:58 pm : link
I just hope the Jets and Jags occupy the first 2 slots.
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