My weekly excursion into the NFL's underworld...
PROJECTED DRAFT ORDER
The tiebreak for draft order for non-playoff teams is Strength of Schedule (SOS). The familiar tiebreakers (head-to-head, conference record, etc.) only come into play if the SOS is the same for the 2 teams. Therefore a 4th place team can pick behind a 3rd place team (or even a 2nd place team).
At this point in the season, I just list by a projected SOS - the combined records of the 16 opponents. Later in the year I figure out which future games will add 1-1 to the SOS (i.e teams on our schedule playing each other) to get a more refined estimate.
(Note that the tiebreak info below is based on the assumption that all teams will play their complete schedule. It is not based on “if the draft were held today…”, as the games future opponents have played so far are included.)
1. NYJ 0-9 (-14.5)
2. JAC 1-8 (-8) [note JAC projected SOS is 6.5 games weaker than NYJ projected SOS, which means they are trending to pick ahead of NYJ in case of a tie]
3. WAS 2-7 (4.5; see below)
4. DAL 2-7 (4; see below)
5. LAC 2-7 (-2)
6. HOU 2-7 (-10) (pick traded to MIA)
7. CIN 2-6-1
8. NYG 3-7
9. CAR 3-7 (-8.5)
10. ATL 3-6 (-7.5)
11. DEN 3-6 (-11.5)
12. SF 4-6 (-5)
13. DET 4-5 (-2)
14. MIN 4-5 (-2)
15. NE 4-5 (-2.5)
The numbers in parentheses give the number of games back in projected SOS, e.g. NYG is 8.5 games weaker in projected SOS than CAR and NYG is 4 games stronger than DAL in projected SOS. Big negative numbers are good for NYG, big positive numbers are bad for NYG.
For SOS tiebreak vs other NFC East teams, one only needs to look at the combined wins of the 2 non-common opponents. For WAS (assuming both teams don’t make the playoffs) compare
WAS: DET + CAR = 7-12 combined record
NYG: CHI + TB = 12-8 combined record
Note that the NYG sweep over WAS does not determine draft order tiebreak unless these combined records end up the same.
For DAL
DAL: ATL + MIN = 7-11 combined record
NYG: CHI + TB = 12-8 combined record
[note that at one point ATL was 0-5, MIN was 1-5, and CHI was 5-1]
If Lawrence is the type of QB prospect that many think he is, I sincerly doubt the team with the top overall pick trades out of that spot, regardless of what is offered.
This notion by some (not necessarily you) that a team can offer "the farm" and get whatever they want is simply not true.
Jets can either keep Darnold who is still 23 years old by the way, or take another QB in the 2021 draft, and have a treasure trove of picks for years to come if a team wants Lawrence that bad.
Listen I get that Lawrence is a great prospect, but you'd have to be a moron to not consider all of those picks that they can get.
If Lawrence has the potential to be a top NFL QB for the next 15 years, no GM is going to risk trading his rights away....especially if it's the Jets who still haven't lived down taking O'Brien over Marino.
7 or 8 years from now chances are all the players in that potential "haul trade" will be out of the NFL, while Lawrence may still be in his prime.