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Week 11 rooting interests

ray in arlington : 11/20/2020 11:02 am
Our NFC rivals all play Sunday afternoon:

PHI at CLE 1:00
CIN at WAS 1:00
DAL at MIN 4:00

From the NYT simulator, chance of NYG making playoffs

All win: 10%
PHI WAS win: 14%
PHI DAL win: 14%
DAL WAS win: 21%
PHI win: 16%
DAL win: 23%
WAS win: 28%
None win: 29%

Note this is based on simulating future outcomes based on Sagarin ratings, not just counting possible outcomes.

The chances of making playoffs are essentially the same as winning division, as the wild card probability is below 1%. (The worst NFC wild card team is 6-3, so if NYG got enough wins to have a possible wild card spot, they would win the division.)

Other than that, I think there would be interest in losses by NYJ (to LAC) and JAC (to PIT) to keep DAL and WAS out of the top 2 spots in the draft.

Here's general info on the NFC East race:


NFC EAST RACE

PHI 3.5-5.5 (DIV 2-2; split with NYG)
Remaining: @CLE, SEA, @GB, NO, @ARI, @DAL, WAS [37-28]

NYG 3-7 (DIV 3-2)
Remaining: BYE, @CIN, @SEA, ARI, CLE, @BAL, DAL [29-26-1]

WAS 2-7 (DIV 2-2; swept by NYG)
Remaining: CIN, @DAL (Thanks.), @PIT, @SF, SEA, CAR, @PHI [30-34-2]

DAL 2-7 (DIV 1-2; beat NYG)
Remaining: @MIN, WAS (Thanks.), @BAL, @CIN, SF, PHI, @NYG [24-39-2]

The NFC East is 2-18-1 outside the division.


NFC East Tiebreaks:

TIEBREAKS NOT REQUIRING A TIE GAME TO BE PLAYED:

2-way tie with DAL The team that wins the week NYG-DAL week 17 matchup wins this tiebreak. So if NYG are 1 game behind DAL coming into week 17 and beat DAL, NYG wins this tiebreak.

2-way tie with WAS: NYG takes this tiebreak due to head to head sweep.

3-way tie with DAL and WAS. If NYG beat DAL, NYG takes this tiebreak. If DAL beat NYG and WAS, DAL takes the tiebreak, If DAL beat NYG and WAS beat DAL, any of the three teams (even WAS) can take the tiebreak.

TIEBREAKS REQUIRING A TIE GAME TO BE PLAYED:

2-way-tie with PHI: NYG or PHI would have to play a tie game before the end of the season to create this tiebreak. Either team could finish with a better division record and take the tiebreak. If they finish with the same division record NYG take tiebreak if PHI beats either GB or NO. If PHI loses to GB and NO this tiebreak is not yet determined.

3-way tie with PHI and DAL or PHI and WAS. I’ll defer considering this.












Love that your posts  
GiantsRage2007 : 11/20/2020 11:17 am : link
Are about playoffs and not just draft position this late in the season!

A very nice change!
Hypothetical scenario here  
Ben in Tampa : 11/20/2020 11:32 am : link
If the Giants finish 6-10

And the Eagles finish 5-10-1

.... who gets in? What’s more important, more total victories or less total losses?
RE: Hypothetical scenario here  
ray in arlington : 11/20/2020 11:35 am : link
In comment 15052182 Ben in Tampa said:
Quote:
If the Giants finish 6-10

And the Eagles finish 5-10-1

.... who gets in? What’s more important, more total victories or less total losses?


6-10 is better than 5-10-1

NFL counts tie was a win and a loss, so 5-10-1 = 5.5-10.5
Correction  
ray in arlington : 11/20/2020 11:39 am : link
NFL treats ties as a half win and half loss, so 5-10-1 = 5.5-10.5
5.5-10.5 < 6-10
If you add the spreads for the rest of the season to the mix  
Zeke's Alibi : 11/20/2020 11:42 am : link
I'd imagine the adjusted odds of us winning the East is probably 50/50 if all these teams lose this week.
Thanks Ray  
Ben in Tampa : 11/20/2020 11:46 am : link
.
RE: If you add the spreads for the rest of the season to the mix  
ray in arlington : 11/20/2020 11:46 am : link
In comment 15052205 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
I'd imagine the adjusted odds of us winning the East is probably 50/50 if all these teams lose this week.


The NYT simulator is accounting for the strength of future opponents based on a model. I don’t know if it gives more weight to recent games or not.
RE: RE: If you add the spreads for the rest of the season to the mix  
Zeke's Alibi : 11/20/2020 12:02 pm : link
In comment 15052209 ray in arlington said:
Quote:
In comment 15052205 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


I'd imagine the adjusted odds of us winning the East is probably 50/50 if all these teams lose this week.



The NYT simulator is accounting for the strength of future opponents based on a model. I don’t know if it gives more weight to recent games or not.


I’d imagine not. Taking the money lines into account there a 20 percent chance we are in 1st after the Bengals week. At that point I’d imagine we’d be 1 to 2 favorites to win the East.
RE: RE: RE: If you add the spreads for the rest of the season to the mix  
ray in arlington : 11/20/2020 12:13 pm : link
In comment 15052224 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 15052209 ray in arlington said:


Quote:


In comment 15052205 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


I'd imagine the adjusted odds of us winning the East is probably 50/50 if all these teams lose this week.



The NYT simulator is accounting for the strength of future opponents based on a model. I don’t know if it gives more weight to recent games or not.



I’d imagine not. Taking the money lines into account there a 20 percent chance we are in 1st after the Bengals week. At that point I’d imagine we’d be 1 to 2 favorites to win the East.


Simulator is a little more pessimistic, giving around 59% after 2 NYG wins and 2 Eagle losses. There's a sampling variability of a few percent.


RE: RE: RE: RE: If you add the spreads for the rest of the season to the mix  
ray in arlington : 11/20/2020 12:39 pm : link
sorry 2 NYG wins and 2 PHI losses is not the case you are talking about.
If the Giants go 3 and 3 these final 6 games...  
90.Cal : 11/20/2020 1:10 pm : link
Philly would have to go 2 and 5 in order for us to get in.... possible yes... but I think if we want a playoff spot we have to earn it big time and close the final 6 games of our season as a winning team, a good team, going 4-2. Putting us at 7-9. Thats what it will take IMO. To assume Philly will do worse than 3-4 on their last 7 games isn't smart, look how Philly closed last season despite being riddled with injuries everywhere... just saying let's pray for 3-4 from Philly instead of assuming they will go 2-5 or worse its just a tad bit far fetched in my mind. End of the day fuck Philly we have to take care of business or it doesn't matter. Go Giants! I believe we can do it! Playoff experience would be huge for Daniel in particular just as it was for a young Eli (who got bumped in round 1 in his 1st playoff experience)
COVID issues are going to play  
jvm52106 : 11/20/2020 1:44 pm : link
a role for a number of teams. 1 star player gets a positive and misses a game or two and suddenly that team is in trouble. The last 4 weeks will be a juggling nightmare based on the trends right now.

Another rooting interest  
dslayton86 : 11/20/2020 5:31 pm : link
Packers to lose vs. Indy this weekend. Rodgers/Packers coming off a loss and playing Eagles next week would be a nice situation.
RE: Another rooting interest  
dslayton86 : 11/20/2020 5:32 pm : link
In comment 15052550 dslayton86 said:
Quote:
Packers to lose vs. Indy this weekend. Rodgers/Packers coming off a loss and playing Eagles next week would be a nice situation.

Ignore this. Eagles play Seahawks next week.
It's stupid of me, but after all the losing seasons  
BelieveJJ : 11/21/2020 9:57 am : link
especially with a putrid defense, and with that turning around quite a bit with Coach Graham, 3-4 good to great UFA pickups, I am torn between wanting the Giants to win the NFC east as merely the best of the worst, or picking high enough in the draft to land a blue chip defender like Parsons or Surtain...

Win the division, and fall back to draft slot 20?

The Giants might not be good enough personnel wise on D to afford that.
Anyone feel that this is the week the NFC East sweeps the board?  
Zeke's Alibi : 11/21/2020 10:32 am : link
Very possible. Dalton is coming back, could certainly see that being a high scoring one, but Vikings should own on the ground. WFT play Bengals and stylistically should own them, and Eagles are getting a Browns team with no Garret and Conklin, which should hurt their run game.

I’ve noticed this the past few weeks, but the NFC East is merely a dumpster fire now and no longer California wild fire levels of suck. I just feel like Sunday is gonna suck.

If that happens, who do we want to win the Thanksgiving game? WFT team right? We own the tiebreaker. It’s just that they scare me more than Dallas as Alex Smith gains more confidence.
RE: Anyone feel that this is the week the NFC East sweeps the board?  
GiantsRage2007 : 11/21/2020 11:27 am : link
In comment 15052927 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
Very possible. Dalton is coming back, could certainly see that being a high scoring one, but Vikings should own on the ground. WFT play Bengals and stylistically should own them, and Eagles are getting a Browns team with no Garret and Conklin, which should hurt their run game.

I’ve noticed this the past few weeks, but the NFC East is merely a dumpster fire now and no longer California wild fire levels of suck. I just feel like Sunday is gonna suck.

If that happens, who do we want to win the Thanksgiving game? WFT team right? We own the tiebreaker. It’s just that they scare me more than Dallas as Alex Smith gains more confidence.


Gotta root for WFT and Dallas to lose. Dallas has the easier schedule down the stretch & we don’t want Dallas to be playing for anything week 17 vs us.
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