Our NFC rivals all play Sunday afternoon:
PHI at CLE 1:00
CIN at WAS 1:00
DAL at MIN 4:00
From the NYT simulator, chance of NYG making playoffs
All win: 10%
PHI WAS win: 14%
PHI DAL win: 14%
DAL WAS win: 21%
PHI win: 16%
DAL win: 23%
WAS win: 28%
None win: 29%
Note this is based on simulating future outcomes based on Sagarin ratings, not just counting possible outcomes.
The chances of making playoffs are essentially the same as winning division, as the wild card probability is below 1%. (The worst NFC wild card team is 6-3, so if NYG got enough wins to have a possible wild card spot, they would win the division.)
Other than that, I think there would be interest in losses by NYJ (to LAC) and JAC (to PIT) to keep DAL and WAS out of the top 2 spots in the draft.
Here's general info on the NFC East race:
NFC EAST RACE
PHI 3.5-5.5 (DIV 2-2; split with NYG)
Remaining: @CLE, SEA, @GB, NO, @ARI, @DAL, WAS [37-28]
NYG 3-7 (DIV 3-2)
Remaining: BYE, @CIN, @SEA, ARI, CLE, @BAL, DAL [29-26-1]
WAS 2-7 (DIV 2-2; swept by NYG)
Remaining: CIN, @DAL (Thanks.), @PIT, @SF, SEA, CAR, @PHI [30-34-2]
DAL 2-7 (DIV 1-2; beat NYG)
Remaining: @MIN, WAS (Thanks.), @BAL, @CIN, SF, PHI, @NYG [24-39-2]
The NFC East is 2-18-1 outside the division.
NFC East Tiebreaks:
TIEBREAKS NOT REQUIRING A TIE GAME TO BE PLAYED:
2-way tie with DAL The team that wins the week NYG-DAL week 17 matchup wins this tiebreak. So if NYG are 1 game behind DAL coming into week 17 and beat DAL, NYG wins this tiebreak.
2-way tie with WAS: NYG takes this tiebreak due to head to head sweep.
3-way tie with DAL and WAS. If NYG beat DAL, NYG takes this tiebreak. If DAL beat NYG and WAS, DAL takes the tiebreak, If DAL beat NYG and WAS beat DAL, any of the three teams (even WAS) can take the tiebreak.
TIEBREAKS REQUIRING A TIE GAME TO BE PLAYED:
2-way-tie with PHI: NYG or PHI would have to play a tie game before the end of the season to create this tiebreak. Either team could finish with a better division record and take the tiebreak. If they finish with the same division record NYG take tiebreak if PHI beats either GB or NO. If PHI loses to GB and NO this tiebreak is not yet determined.
3-way tie with PHI and DAL or PHI and WAS. I’ll defer considering this.
A very nice change!
And the Eagles finish 5-10-1
.... who gets in? What’s more important, more total victories or less total losses?
And the Eagles finish 5-10-1
.... who gets in? What’s more important, more total victories or less total losses?
6-10 is better than 5-10-1
NFL counts tie was a win and a loss, so 5-10-1 = 5.5-10.5
5.5-10.5 < 6-10
The NYT simulator is accounting for the strength of future opponents based on a model. I don’t know if it gives more weight to recent games or not.
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I'd imagine the adjusted odds of us winning the East is probably 50/50 if all these teams lose this week.
The NYT simulator is accounting for the strength of future opponents based on a model. I don’t know if it gives more weight to recent games or not.
I’d imagine not. Taking the money lines into account there a 20 percent chance we are in 1st after the Bengals week. At that point I’d imagine we’d be 1 to 2 favorites to win the East.
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In comment 15052205 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
I'd imagine the adjusted odds of us winning the East is probably 50/50 if all these teams lose this week.
The NYT simulator is accounting for the strength of future opponents based on a model. I don’t know if it gives more weight to recent games or not.
I’d imagine not. Taking the money lines into account there a 20 percent chance we are in 1st after the Bengals week. At that point I’d imagine we’d be 1 to 2 favorites to win the East.
Simulator is a little more pessimistic, giving around 59% after 2 NYG wins and 2 Eagle losses. There's a sampling variability of a few percent.
Ignore this. Eagles play Seahawks next week.
Win the division, and fall back to draft slot 20?
The Giants might not be good enough personnel wise on D to afford that.
I’ve noticed this the past few weeks, but the NFC East is merely a dumpster fire now and no longer California wild fire levels of suck. I just feel like Sunday is gonna suck.
If that happens, who do we want to win the Thanksgiving game? WFT team right? We own the tiebreaker. It’s just that they scare me more than Dallas as Alex Smith gains more confidence.
I’ve noticed this the past few weeks, but the NFC East is merely a dumpster fire now and no longer California wild fire levels of suck. I just feel like Sunday is gonna suck.
If that happens, who do we want to win the Thanksgiving game? WFT team right? We own the tiebreaker. It’s just that they scare me more than Dallas as Alex Smith gains more confidence.
Gotta root for WFT and Dallas to lose. Dallas has the easier schedule down the stretch & we don’t want Dallas to be playing for anything week 17 vs us.