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NFT: Mets Chat

DanMetroMan : 11/23/2020 10:11 am
Sandy to update the media at 4:30 on the ongoing search for FO hires.
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RE: I  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:18 am : link
In comment 15065008 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
really can't accept Familia's issues are Ramos when Diaz was fine with him. Familia had trouble throwing strikes, in his prime his super sinker was close to unhittable and his command was better. Neither are the case any longer.


Nobody is saying that's the only reason. Just that it's a factor.

Coaching is probably the biggest factor but we don't know whether or not they asked him to do anything different or made adjustments that didn't work.

I do think we can safely guess they probably did but it's impossible to guess the extent to which that directly impacted his performance.
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:20 am : link
just have a very hard time placing the blame for Familia on Ramos. Even a non-scout can see he has trouble throwing strikes when he needs to. He wasn't screwed by framing and his breaking ball didn't fool hitters. Lots of fouled off pitches tells you that hitters are "on" to his stuff.
I'll  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:23 am : link
say this, I'm not sold on Hefner. I know people like him and he's intelligent but he was the assistant pitching coach in Minnesota, the Mets didn't really see success stories and the Twins pen was the best in baseball by fWAR without him and that included impressive seasons from newcomers like Clippard and Wisler (another option for the Mets).
Not good  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:31 am : link

Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
The fact that there is no MLB-MLBPA agreement on the universal DH for 2021 completely undercuts the large group of corner OF/DH/corner slugger types among the free agents. An already bad situation for those players made worse.
RE: Not good  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:32 am : link
In comment 15065033 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
The fact that there is no MLB-MLBPA agreement on the universal DH for 2021 completely undercuts the large group of corner OF/DH/corner slugger types among the free agents. An already bad situation for those players made worse.


Another reason to possibly go big on Realmuto.

Springer makes our COF situation that much harder to figure out (if Nimmo and Dom are both still here).
Hefner  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:41 am : link
back per Martino
RE: RE: Not good  
Metnut : 12/3/2020 11:45 am : link
In comment 15065036 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15065033 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:



Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
The fact that there is no MLB-MLBPA agreement on the universal DH for 2021 completely undercuts the large group of corner OF/DH/corner slugger types among the free agents. An already bad situation for those players made worse.



Another reason to possibly go big on Realmuto.

Springer makes our COF situation that much harder to figure out (if Nimmo and Dom are both still here).


Don’t have a lot to add but enjoyed reading this discussion between you and Dan.

Agreed on Realmuto. The cost and term will be big but there’s no help on the way for the next two plus years. Lets sign the best catcher in baseball and try and win a ring for Degrom. It’s not like Realmuto is old. He’s been remarkably consistent and good for 4 years running now. He fills a desperate need and only costs money.
,  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:45 am : link
John Brebbia must not be 100% because otherwise I do not understand why the Cardinals would non-tender a guy projected to make sub-1 million. I'd be ALL over him, even if he's still on the mend
Link - ( New Window )
Brebbia  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:47 am : link
3.39 career FIP, 10.18 K/9. Missed 2020 with TJ
that's my thinking too Metnut  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:53 am : link
I have more confidence Springer will be close to what he is now in the later years of his deal even if he shifts to a corner, but Realmuto will make a much bigger impact as long as he remains the player he is now. Which should be at least 2 seasons.

Signing both seems greedy/unlikely but it's not impossible to do so and stay under the tax threshold if you then trade from excess to add some youngish pitching. If you sign Springer you almost have to trade at least 1 of Nimmo / JDD / Dom if there's no DH, and maybe 2.
Sherman saying Mets like  
Metnut : 12/3/2020 1:05 pm : link
James McCann and are considering him instead of Realmuto.
RE: Sherman saying Mets like  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:11 pm : link
In comment 15065133 Metnut said:
Quote:
James McCann and are considering him instead of Realmuto.


Hopefully just saying that to maintain a little leverage.
RE: RE: Sherman saying Mets like  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 1:27 pm : link
In comment 15065136 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15065133 Metnut said:


Quote:


James McCann and are considering him instead of Realmuto.



Hopefully just saying that to maintain a little leverage.


Personally, I've thought best case (realistic) scenario all along was Bauer, Springer, and McCann. Don't get me wrong. I'd take Realmuto. But I would rather the top SP and the top CF over Realmuto.
4 years?  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:34 pm : link
Yeesh. Don’t love it.
If  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:35 pm : link
Indeed is 4 years this is a very questionable move unless the money is much lower than the projected low-teens people are projecting. They better land at least one of Springer or Bauer or the off-season (barring some unknown trade that would of course hurt the farm) occurs. They talked big, gotta land at least one of the big names.. or else
RE: 4 years?  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:36 pm : link
In comment 15065157 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Yeesh. Don’t love it.


Did something happen?
Seidler hates it  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:37 pm : link
(And he’s a Mets fan)

“There's very little evidence he's anything more than a league average starting catcher and not a particularly large amount of evidence he's even that. Do you really want to lock in his age 31-34 seasons because he just had a nice 30 games as a backup? in the last two offseasons he has been released and then relegated to a backup, this isn't some weird "BP's metrics don't like him" shit, other major-league teams keep treating him like a marginal starter“
RE: RE: 4 years?  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:37 pm : link
In comment 15065159 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15065157 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Yeesh. Don’t love it.



Did something happen?


Robert Murray is reporting its looking like he will get 4 years
RE: RE: 4 years?  
JB_in_DC : 12/3/2020 1:38 pm : link
In comment 15065159 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Did something happen?



@ByRobertMurray
Mets in active talks with free-agent catcher James McCann, according to league sources. A deal is not yet close, but it is looking increasingly likely he will land a four-year deal.
Link - ( New Window )
Murray broke the news:  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:38 pm : link
Mets in active talks with free-agent catcher James McCann, according to league sources. A deal is not yet close, but it is looking increasingly likely he will land a four-year deal.
Fangraphs really liked his 2020  
Metnut : 12/3/2020 1:40 pm : link
performance. Had McCann at 1.5 war and Realmuto at 1.7.
I don't like it at all and hope this is just a ploy to get Realmuto  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:41 pm : link
his only 2 good offensive seasons (the last 2 years) have been on inflated BABIP's. .340 and .360 for a slow catcher don't seem sustainable.

He's only had 1 good year in terms of pitch framing, 2020, and prior had been mostly bad.

Even with positive defensive grades on FG, in 2018 when his BABIP was .282 he was a negative fwar player.

4 years for him is highly unappealing to me. Highly.
4 years  
pjcas18 : 12/3/2020 1:41 pm : link
wouldn't be ideal, but need to see the $$$.

maybe 4 years would give him a one-year mentorship for Alvarez.

Is McCann a leader? The Mets desperately need a player leader IMO. and it has to be a position player IMO. It's often catchers who fill this role.
RE: Fangraphs really liked his 2020  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:42 pm : link
In comment 15065170 Metnut said:
Quote:
performance. Had McCann at 1.5 war and Realmuto at 1.7.


He’s 31 in June with very little MLB success and a history of terrible defense (better recently) unnecessary gamble at 4 years. He’s going to be 32 year 2 of this deal.
RE: Not good  
Section331 : 12/3/2020 1:42 pm : link
In comment 15065033 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
The fact that there is no MLB-MLBPA agreement on the universal DH for 2021 completely undercuts the large group of corner OF/DH/corner slugger types among the free agents. An already bad situation for those players made worse.


It is borderline malpractice for MLB not to have this resolved prior to the FA period starting. It really screws NL teams.
Hopefully this was something leaked by McCann's agent  
debo_GIANTS : 12/3/2020 1:44 pm : link
It seems with the new ownership, they have plugged all the leaks coming out of the Mets front office.

The Trevor May deal was done for a week before it was announced by the media.
put the tinfoil hat on me bc I think this is a pre-WM ploy for JTR  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:45 pm : link
maybe that's just wishful thinking but I don't understand any desire to go 4 years for McCann. And certainly no need to prioritize him. Would rather sign Yadi. Or just patiently wait while filling other positions and seeing if someone else shakes loose via trade.
Fangraphs  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:46 pm : link
Ranked him their 33rd best FA and projected 2 years 12 million (6 per)

Quality catchers aren’t easy to come by these days, and for teams that can’t afford to offer a nine-figure deal to Realmuto and are loath to invest in a 38-year-old Molina (or simply aren’t the Cardinals), McCann offers a reasonable alternative. Admittedly, his track record for above-average play isn’t a long one; he was 0.7 wins below replacement as recently as 2018, and netted -0.1 WAR from 2014-18, that while hitting for just a 75 wRC+. Even so, his 3.8 WAR over the past two seasons is tied for fifth among catchers, while his 116 wRC+ is eighth.

Underlying his recent performance are substantial improvements on both sides of the ball. From 2015-18, McCann posted an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph and a .304 xwOBA, but he’s up to an average of 90.2 mph over the past two seasons, with a .328 xwOBA. Meanwhile, he posted his first above-average framing numbers this year (2.3 runs, up from -9.0 by our data, and from -8.0 to 1.5 via Baseball Prospectus). He’d be an upgrade for several teams. – JJ
RE: RE: Fangraphs really liked his 2020  
Section331 : 12/3/2020 1:49 pm : link
In comment 15065174 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15065170 Metnut said:


Quote:


performance. Had McCann at 1.5 war and Realmuto at 1.7.



He’s 31 in June with very little MLB success and a history of terrible defense (better recently) unnecessary gamble at 4 years. He’s going to be 32 year 2 of this deal.


The thing with Realmuto is that he is a good enough athlete to move if you needed to at the back end of his contract. No such option with McCann.

If this is true, I would hope it's a positive sign for signing other marquee FA's like Bauer, Springer, etc. If the FA period is McCann and Trevor May, that would be a huge disappointment.
MLBTR  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:52 pm : link
Has him 16th, 2 for 20.

He’s a solid player. My issue is 4 years. Unless the money is lower than people think annually it’s silly to give him 4
Fangraphs now has the statcast info in there which is pretty cool  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:54 pm : link
and does show offensive improvements from McCann. His hard hit% the past 2 years was up significantly from his prior career. The past 2 years were 44% and 47% respectively, and prior to that he was in the mid-30's (career 38% including the last 2 years).

So there is reason to believe the power he has showed the last 2 years is legitimate. It may be fair to say his power is even comparable to JTR.

There's no reason to think he's better at literally anything else though and he's a year older.
one thing I don't understand  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 2:06 pm : link
is why Mets would go after McCann first. To me a McCann rather than Realmuto indicates they are going after bigger fish at other positions. I don't understand why they wouldn't get those other bigger fish first and then McCann. If they fail on getting Bauer and/or Springer, then go Realmuto.

Hopefully just talk at this point, or they already have something in place with one (or more) of the other big fish.
I’m  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 2:12 pm : link
Honestly not surprised.

I tweeted this back in September

“ Really have to wonder if despite all of the talk, @Mets sit out Realmuto. If Cohen is heavy into analytics, then a 30 year old C on a 5-6-7 year deal is a tough bet. #Mets”

Also sounds like Hill no longer a candidate to join the FO, no interviews expected this week
What  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 2:15 pm : link
They HAVE done is set expectations high enough that if they don’t sign one of the big 3 FA fans are going to be very disappointed, myself included
Would love McCann  
jpkmets : 12/3/2020 2:17 pm : link
My dream offseason has been

Springer
Bauer
MCann
BP help
Secondary SP

Loved the White Sox last year -- watched them a lot. Big fan of McCann's performance. Offense for him would be gravy. He'd be there to manage a staff, frame well, work with pitchers. I have a lot more faith in his skills holding up through 34-35 than Realmuto's ability to anchor an offense while playing catcher for 6 years.

Ideally hope the 4th year would be a team option, but I'm so down with this.
RE: Would love McCann  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 2:20 pm : link
In comment 15065213 jpkmets said:
Quote:
My dream offseason has been

Springer
Bauer
MCann
BP help
Secondary SP

Loved the White Sox last year -- watched them a lot. Big fan of McCann's performance. Offense for him would be gravy. He'd be there to manage a staff, frame well, work with pitchers. I have a lot more faith in his skills holding up through 34-35 than Realmuto's ability to anchor an offense while playing catcher for 6 years.

Ideally hope the 4th year would be a team option, but I'm so down with this.


That is exactly my hope for the offseason.
I’m  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 2:23 pm : link
The guy who has been pushing Omar Narvaez and Casali so I’m not crying over Realmuto. I’ve wanted Springer and Bauer as my big 2 and still do
I am a no  
pjcas18 : 12/3/2020 2:30 pm : link
on JTR (if I had a choice lol)

I've said all along those $$$ are better used in my world on defense and pitching.

my only issue with McCann is I'm not sure about his D (and I include framing in D). I have been consistent I'd sacrifice offense from the catcher spot for defense.

if it meant the Mets could add a Bauer and Springer or even trade for an Arenado or Lindor (with an extension).

That said I'm not going to lose my shit if the Mets don't sign either Springer or Bauer.

but save their money for another day. I know fans are eager to get better, but sometimes patience is the best course of action for building a sustainable winner.

And that's what I want more than the instant gratification of a competitive 2021. Both long and short term success would be good, but I'm thinking big picture.
David O'Brien gave me some DH  
jpkmets : 12/3/2020 2:32 pm : link
insight.

Really seems like no DH in the NL, which is fine with me!


David O'Brien
@DOBrienATL
But it's us, not teams, acting as thought there might be a DH. NL teams are planning as if there will not be one, because that's how things stand and there's still no plan for the sides to meet to change that.
RE: I’m  
jpkmets : 12/3/2020 2:32 pm : link
In comment 15065219 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
The guy who has been pushing Omar Narvaez and Casali so I’m not crying over Realmuto. I’ve wanted Springer and Bauer as my big 2 and still do


That would be outstanding, for sure!
RE: I am a no  
jpkmets : 12/3/2020 2:38 pm : link
In comment 15065221 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
on JTR (if I had a choice lol)

I've said all along those $$$ are better used in my world on defense and pitching.

my only issue with McCann is I'm not sure about his D (and I include framing in D). I have been consistent I'd sacrifice offense from the catcher spot for defense.

if it meant the Mets could add a Bauer and Springer or even trade for an Arenado or Lindor (with an extension).

That said I'm not going to lose my shit if the Mets don't sign either Springer or Bauer.

but save their money for another day. I know fans are eager to get better, but sometimes patience is the best course of action for building a sustainable winner.

And that's what I want more than the instant gratification of a competitive 2021. Both long and short term success would be good, but I'm thinking big picture.



Very well-said PJ. I agree with all of this (though I do cop to having some serious sugar-plum fairies dancing in my brain).

The DREAM = cash no object offseason would involve, Bauer, Springer, Signing Kim and trading for Lindor.

Let Kim play 3rd (or second if he's unable to handle 3rd)

Alonso/Dom
McNeil at 2B
Lindor SS
Kim 3B

That's my ultimate pie in the sky.

Springer/Bauer/McCann/backup starter is best real case

But yes, the idea is to make this team a habitual winner.

Martino got torched on Twitter for saying that the process is the point but I totally agree with that. Baseball post-season bears the least relation to how good a team is in the regular season due to the small spread between teams 1-10 and the relatively low winning percentage of the very best teams. 108-54 is galacatically good -- but it's equivalent to an 11-5 team.

So yes, the way to rings is to get to the dance nearly every year. From there, you need luck and the right people getting hot together.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 2:51 pm : link
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
1m
here's a giant counterargument to my own argument: McCann has been an identical or slightly better hitter than Realmuto recently and wasn't much worse of a defender in 2020, basically the same when accounting for playing time. Can I talk myself into this before the deal haapens?
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 2:56 pm : link
I know people are hot for Almora but Goodwin might be a better addition. He's a push CF but career 102 wRC+. Wouldn't want either starting but might be a solid guy on a minor league deal
jpk  
pjcas18 : 12/3/2020 2:59 pm : link
same here. I'd love to build a juggernaut and win a WS in 2021.

I'm just trying to be reasonable, lol.

there are like 4 impact free agents available.

I don't want ownership to feel like they have to force one or more of them to feel like the offseason was successful.

if they do nothing and that is the plan, I'm actually cool with that.

All along the main thing I have wanted out of the front office/ownership is a plan.

First and foremost a plan to compete (and win) at the major league level

second, a plan to build the farm into an asset for both when the team needs to add but also as an asset to acquire talent

third, build out analytics, and other areas that are fundamental to #1 and #2, so these are not necessarily in order but #1 and #2 are happening with or without analytics.

and lastly, just do things to make me as a fan proud to support the Mets. I'm not too emotional about sports anymore and this isn't 100% on former ownership, but I was losing interest. One press conference with Cohen and I was as high as I have ever been on the Mets.

so, in summary, I'd love it for the Mets to add Springer, Bauer, and more this off-season, but more importantly I want them to not be reactionary - build a plan for the things I mentioned above and execute. They need to be able to adjust the plan as outside influences change, but I never got the feeling the Mets had a legitimate plan since probably '88

small episodes of success followed by lenghty periods of paying for that success. That's not a model I want for my team.
No  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 3:05 pm : link
DH will really hurt. It means one of Dom/Nimmo/Alonso are on the bench any given game, it also means... gotta deal JD Davis.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 3:40 pm : link
"The big thing for me is getting my body out of the way, and that's what the open stance has done," McCann told reporters. "It's allowed me to see the ball and allowed me to keep my body out of my swing and allowed my hands to work."
Law  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 3:52 pm : link
didn't rank him as one of his top 40 FA's wow
jpkmets - if you have time can you expand on this  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 4:26 pm : link
Quote:
Loved the White Sox last year -- watched them a lot. Big fan of McCann's performance. Offense for him would be gravy. He'd be there to manage a staff, frame well, work with pitchers.


Statistically I can buy that his improvement at the plate the last 2 years is real - there are underlying metrics to support it. But defense is my priority at C so very curious to hear anything about McCann and how he works with pitchers. I don't fully trust the public versions of those metrics yet and they aren't clear cut on him either way.
Sort of answered my own question here (McCann's defense)  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 4:58 pm : link
even though this is a puff piece, definitely better to read stuff like this than not.

Quote:
But it goes beyond the numbers. McCann has been an integral part of this team as it’s ascended out of rebuilding mode and into contention mode. He’s helped Lucas Giolito, the staff ace, transform into one of the finest arms in baseball, and he was behind the plate for Giolito’s no-hitter.

“Mac, we call him ‘The Captain.’ One of the leaders of our team, vocally and by example,” Giolito said of McCann last month. “I think that for him, whenever he gets in the game, he’s locked in. He knows what he has to do to be able to manage the pitcher he has on the mound, be able to manage his at-bats, give us quality ABs no matter where he’s hitting or no matter how often he’s playing. He has a very good attitude about that.


At the end of the day it will just come down to how much he costs relative to JTR. If you squint there are similarities, and even a few metrics where McCann has been better (he is one of the best catchers in baseball the last 2 years at the SIS statistic that claims to account for handling a pitching staff).

If he's a good bit cheaper, I get the gamble. If it's 4 years and the price difference is smaller than many projected, why not just spend for Realmuto?
Why the Sox need to re-sign McCann — and why it will be hard - ( New Window )
2 more scouting reports from his prospect days  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 5:09 pm : link
This one from 2013:
Quote:
McCann's calling card is his defense. He manages pitching staffs well, is an excellent on-field "captain" of sorts, meaning that he's very good at directing the defense and being a true leader. There's something to be said for having outstanding makeup as a player, and McCann has it. His arm grades out as an above-average tool, occasionally flashing plus on his throws. He is very athletic behind the plate, which is especially impressive considering that he's a pretty big guy at 6'2" and around 215-220lbs. He moves well, frames pitches well, and is good at blocking balls in the dirt. He's just one of those guys you watch and say "that guy is a ballplayer", plain and simple.


Also his last MLB Pipeline scouting report from 2014 right before he debuted:

Quote:
Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 40 | Run: 30 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45
The Tigers went three straight Drafts from 2010-12 where they gave up their first-round pick as free-agent compensation. McCann was their top choice in 2011, when he went 76th overall. He reached Double-A in his first full pro season and struggled there offensively, but hit much better when he returned to that level in 2013.

McCann's calling card remains his defense, however. He has solid catch-and-throw skills, soft hands and the leadership to run a pitching staff. He has thrown out 39 percent of basestealers during his first three years as a pro.

McCann's bat will determine whether he's a big league regular. He has some pop but his swing gets long and he will chase pitches out of the strike zone. At worst, he should be a defensive-minded backup.

The Staff of the Detroit Tigers Prospect Report has ranked their Top 50 Tigers Prospects - ( New Window )
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