May would be a solid get but might take them out of the running for Hendriks/Hand. May, Diaz, Betances, Familia, Shreve, Lugo, Castro, Brach + McWilliams, Barnes, Tropeano as options. Questionable how much room they even have. Another non-Hand lefty seems more likely
May would be a solid add - good K rate, also good walk rate
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Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
If May signs, the #Mets would have 5 RH relievers signed for 2020 (also Barnes, Betances, Brach, Familia). Plus will tender Diaz. Does this point Lugo more toward the rotation/Castro or Gsellman more toward a non-tender?
but I worry that he profiles a bit too similar to Diaz (great K rate, not bad control, too much hard contact/dingers allowed).
Getting anything close to Diaz via FA is worthwhile.
Also his control seems better than Diaz (3.28 bb/9 over his career and higher than that as a Met vs. 2.9 for May over his career with a sub-2 year in 2018).
The primary issue with Diaz was the cost to get him, which isn't an issue here. The secondary issues were that he a was handed a role that he was too inexperienced to handle and he was throwing to a catcher who couldn't catch low strikes. All of those issues could be non-factors with this signing.
Craig’s Take
Most of May’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but his 40% strikeout rate in 2020 really jumps out. His velocity has steadily increased over the years, now sitting in the upper-90s. Even at 31 years old, there’s a sense that his best seasons might still be ahead of him. The home runs are a bit frustrating, but if he can keep hitters missing and stay healthy, he’s the second-best reliever in this free agent class.
Player Notes
At a glance, May’s 1.9 HR/9 ratio looks far more alarming than his strikeout surge looks encouraging. Small samples often have a distortive effect though, and that’s the case here as well. While May’s cartoonishly high 21.7% HR/FB ratio will undoubtedly regress in short order, the substantial increase in whiffs he generated looks legitimate. He reared back and found an extra tick on his fastball last season, and hitters missed the pitch more than 20% of the time. Life gets a whole lot easier when your fastball can carry the profile.
Three consecutive seasons of good-if-not-quite-great relief work should put May in line for a multi-year deal worth around $10 million per, give or take how excited front offices are about his four-seamer. The pandemic will likely eat into that figure though, and so it’ll be interesting to see if May values the stability of a longer contract or would rather roll the dice and hit free agency after 2021. As the valedictorian in Kelso High School’s class of 2008, I trust him to arrive at the right answer. – BG Link - ( New Window )
Has May's HR/9 really spiked recently? Or is he just a moderately high HR RP? Career 1.20/9, Familia .51, Lugo 1.06, Betances.59. 2020 we are talking about a very SSS but "high" HR/9 in 2016 and 2018. Likely, just part of the package. I like the move, solid first move. Just looking at the overall player we are getting.
Jacob Barnes might have been a sneakily decent depth addition. From 2016-2018 he appeared in 149 games, pitching 147 innings of quality baseball. His crazy K-rate over 18 innings this year may be a fluke, but he might actually be a solid MR option in 2021
(Citi Field will not help him here; only one of those 17 homers that he allowed over the last three years would have stayed in the yard in Queens — and a few more fly balls to right would have gotten out.)
.Mike Minor 2 years 18 million guaranteed with a 3rd-year option for 13 more, 1 million buyout. So he will get 19 million over 2, or 30 million over 3.
.Mike Minor 2 years 18 million guaranteed with a 3rd-year option for 13 more, 1 million buyout. So he will get 19 million over 2, or 30 million over 3.
Wow. I'm pretty shocked by that deal. Off the (partial) year he just had I didn't see that coming.
which makes sense because signing this early means they were someone's higher priority target.
The Minor deal is totally confusing to me unless they just love him in KC from when they had him last time and figure worst case he can be very strong out of the pen and help mentor their young guys.
far no shocking deals to me. I didn't expect to see Minor get 2, but that's a KC tax (harder to sign FA's). Smyly got more than I thought but not absurdly so and Atl does "that" on one year deals. Robbie Ray at 8 seems fair, Morton at 15. So far, nothing shocking either way to me.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
Free-agent catcher Luke Maile in agreement with Brewers on major-league contract, pending physical, sources tell The Athletic.
don't really have room for guaranteed contracts for RP's.
Barnes and McWilliams interesting wildcards. Lugo, Diaz, May, Familia, Shreve, Barnes, McWilliams, Brach, Tropeano. Like some others on minor league deals. 13 pitcher rule means you really can't go deeper than a 9 man pen
Diaz, Familia, Brach, Betances, McWilliams, Barnes, May, Lugo, Shreve all have MLB deals. I suspect they bring in a few minor league deal types but this is probably your pen give or take.
Mets BP vs. lefties in 2020.... May .200, Diaz .178, Lugo struggled as a SP, but career .226 vs. lefties, Shreve .063, Barnes .167, Tropeano .067 (very small SS)
Unfortunately for Steven Matz, despite being lefty, is not a good candidate to be a "second lefty" out of the bullpen. Lefties career vs. Matz have hit .267. So either he's a SP, or a long-man
Mets BP vs. lefties in 2020.... May .200, Diaz .178, Lugo struggled as a SP, but career .226 vs. lefties, Shreve .063, Barnes .167, Tropeano .067 (very small SS)
With the 3 batter rule it's a much sounder strategy to have guys who are tough against both vs. specialists.
That's why someone like Hand (or Minor) would have been appealing because they are lefties but not just lefty specialists.
Like you said, maybe 1 specialist is fine but much better strategy to just have a bunch of good pitchers.
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
·
1m
The teams making the biggest push to sign starters, per sources, are the Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, Padres, Giants & Rays, while the Twins, Marlins & Reds are also expected to be in the SP market. Big game of SP musical chairs; who will be left without a seat?
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
·
3m
Mike Minor's deal is just another example that the free-agent market for starters is healthier than expected. Beyond Bauer, it puts Odorizzi, Tanaka and Walker in great position this offseason. Also a potential goldmine for teams with starters to potentially trade (TEX, CIN, TB).
Any names to watch for in Rule 5 Draft? Jose Alberto Rivera of Houston seems the most intriguing with an upper 90’s fastball and interesting secondaries.
haven't completely looked it over yet but this kid Joel Peguero legit popped 100 in Australia so I'd be in on him for that alone (70 FB), Paul Campbell has ELITE rpm on his FB so he's interesting, Riley Pint
is there a team out there that thinks they can make him a reclamation project if that even fits?
Maybe give Matz back in a trade where the Mets get a prospect and a bad contract.
he's not worthy of a rotation spot on a contender and doesn't seem suited to the bullpen.
really wanted him to pan out. with all the injuries he suffered to start his career and the local angle, etc. would have been a nice story.
I think you might be able to swap him for a similar non-tender candidate at a similar price range. Or for another similar contract somewhere else. He definitely doesn't have surplus trade value but he might be just close enough to neutral someone would be willing to swap him.
I don't mind bringing him into camp though - especially if they have some confidence that someone he worked with in the organization previously can help. You can never have enough pitching depth and some guys do just take a while before they figure things out (even if it's just figuring out how to eat innings as a #5 starter).
Predicts Kluber signs with the Sox, Mets or Yankees. Boston considered the favorites as he lives there. Kluber would be a nice get but only as second arm. He can’t be the big get. He’s missed 2 seasons
Predicts Kluber signs with the Sox, Mets or Yankees. Boston considered the favorites as he lives there. Kluber would be a nice get but only as second arm. He can’t be the big get. He’s missed 2 seasons
Wilpons would sign Kluber, move Lugo to the rotation, sign some other "B" level reliever, and give up prospects for Meija and call it an offseason. We'd have to listen to a whole offseason from Wilpon defenders talking about how great Kluber is going to rebound and reading 3 year old draft profiles of Meija.
So happy Wilpons are gone and we can have a real offseason. I'm absolutely a bit concerned that the front office isn't being filled out, but it seems like theres a lot going on there that I'm not privvy to, so I'll just focus on the acquisition for now.
Predicts Kluber signs with the Sox, Mets or Yankees. Boston considered the favorites as he lives there. Kluber would be a nice get but only as second arm. He can’t be the big get. He’s missed 2 seasons
Wilpons would sign Kluber, move Lugo to the rotation, sign some other "B" level reliever, and give up prospects for Meija and call it an offseason. We'd have to listen to a whole offseason from Wilpon defenders talking about how great Kluber is going to rebound and reading 3 year old draft profiles of Meija.
So happy Wilpons are gone and we can have a real offseason. I'm absolutely a bit concerned that the front office isn't being filled out, but it seems like theres a lot going on there that I'm not privvy to, so I'll just focus on the acquisition for now.
wouldn't help the 2021 Mets (most likely) but he'd be like adding an additional first-round pick to the system
Is everyone bound in the bidding to stay within the IFA budgets or is this one of those situations where it's a open auction?
They are bound by the IFA budgets which SHOULD help the Mets because at least in terms of what BA was hearing.. the Mets had not even dabbled on the higher end names of the IFA market (no this wasn't a Cohen thing, these agreements are generally in place up to 24 months in advance) but this COULD work in our favor. It's also possible he finds a team that "promises" him either an MLB roster spot (unlikely) or a quicker path to the bigs (very possible) but all-in on Colas if possible and when Kim is posted I like him as well.
Looks like his ERA YoY almost directly tracks with whether or not he has a good year with homers or a bad year within his range of outcomes.
His career high near 2hr/9 last year was no bueno, but I guess if that is a worst case scenario he was still a contributor.
Can never have enough guys with high velocity.
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Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
If May signs, the #Mets would have 5 RH relievers signed for 2020 (also Barnes, Betances, Brach, Familia). Plus will tender Diaz. Does this point Lugo more toward the rotation/Castro or Gsellman more toward a non-tender?
Getting anything close to Diaz via FA is worthwhile.
Also his control seems better than Diaz (3.28 bb/9 over his career and higher than that as a Met vs. 2.9 for May over his career with a sub-2 year in 2018).
The primary issue with Diaz was the cost to get him, which isn't an issue here. The secondary issues were that he a was handed a role that he was too inexperienced to handle and he was throwing to a catcher who couldn't catch low strikes. All of those issues could be non-factors with this signing.
Most of May’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but his 40% strikeout rate in 2020 really jumps out. His velocity has steadily increased over the years, now sitting in the upper-90s. Even at 31 years old, there’s a sense that his best seasons might still be ahead of him. The home runs are a bit frustrating, but if he can keep hitters missing and stay healthy, he’s the second-best reliever in this free agent class.
Player Notes
At a glance, May’s 1.9 HR/9 ratio looks far more alarming than his strikeout surge looks encouraging. Small samples often have a distortive effect though, and that’s the case here as well. While May’s cartoonishly high 21.7% HR/FB ratio will undoubtedly regress in short order, the substantial increase in whiffs he generated looks legitimate. He reared back and found an extra tick on his fastball last season, and hitters missed the pitch more than 20% of the time. Life gets a whole lot easier when your fastball can carry the profile.
Three consecutive seasons of good-if-not-quite-great relief work should put May in line for a multi-year deal worth around $10 million per, give or take how excited front offices are about his four-seamer. The pandemic will likely eat into that figure though, and so it’ll be interesting to see if May values the stability of a longer contract or would rather roll the dice and hit free agency after 2021. As the valedictorian in Kelso High School’s class of 2008, I trust him to arrive at the right answer. – BG
Link - ( New Window )
His stuff has always been better than his pure results but still a solid addition to the BP
I thought you caught that hint a couple weeks ago??
Quote:
about this, Fred's son Bruce Wilpon is opening a brewery at CitiField called "Ebbs" to honor... the Dodgers.
I thought you caught that hint a couple weeks ago??
The "ebbs" part completely went over my head lol. Thanks Shecky
Still none, Mike Minor signed on 11/29 and STILL no money on him so it's been slow. Gotta figure it's between 6-8 per season for May.
Wow. I'm pretty shocked by that deal. Off the (partial) year he just had I didn't see that coming.
Quote:
.
Still none, Mike Minor signed on 11/29 and STILL no money on him so it's been slow. Gotta figure it's between 6-8 per season for May.
I was pretty close lol
(They are now saying "about" 15 FWIW)
The Minor deal is totally confusing to me unless they just love him in KC from when they had him last time and figure worst case he can be very strong out of the pen and help mentor their young guys.
Quote:
.
Still none, Mike Minor signed on 11/29 and STILL no money on him so it's been slow. Gotta figure it's between 6-8 per season for May.
Lol you nailed it. Nice job
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
Free-agent catcher Luke Maile in agreement with Brewers on major-league contract, pending physical, sources tell The Athletic.
Will they non-tender Narvaez? Do it
vs. L - 153 IP, 61 ER, 19 HR, .241/.309/.394
vs. R - 163 IP, 95 ER, 23 HR, .261/.318/.438
I'd be curious to see how those numbers stack up vs. lefties compared to all the other available options. Like everyone I'd love to have a lefty in the BP but with the 3 batter rule someone like May could be more valuable.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-may/6398/splits?position=P&season=0 - ( New Window )
Barnes and McWilliams interesting wildcards. Lugo, Diaz, May, Familia, Shreve, Barnes, McWilliams, Brach, Tropeano. Like some others on minor league deals. 13 pitcher rule means you really can't go deeper than a 9 man pen
Diaz, Familia, Brach, Betances, McWilliams, Barnes, May, Lugo, Shreve all have MLB deals. I suspect they bring in a few minor league deal types but this is probably your pen give or take.
Mets BP vs. lefties in 2020.... May .200, Diaz .178, Lugo struggled as a SP, but career .226 vs. lefties, Shreve .063, Barnes .167, Tropeano .067 (very small SS)
Mets BP vs. lefties in 2020.... May .200, Diaz .178, Lugo struggled as a SP, but career .226 vs. lefties, Shreve .063, Barnes .167, Tropeano .067 (very small SS)
With the 3 batter rule it's a much sounder strategy to have guys who are tough against both vs. specialists.
That's why someone like Hand (or Minor) would have been appealing because they are lefties but not just lefty specialists.
Like you said, maybe 1 specialist is fine but much better strategy to just have a bunch of good pitchers.
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
·
1m
The teams making the biggest push to sign starters, per sources, are the Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, Padres, Giants & Rays, while the Twins, Marlins & Reds are also expected to be in the SP market. Big game of SP musical chairs; who will be left without a seat?
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
·
3m
Mike Minor's deal is just another example that the free-agent market for starters is healthier than expected. Beyond Bauer, it puts Odorizzi, Tanaka and Walker in great position this offseason. Also a potential goldmine for teams with starters to potentially trade (TEX, CIN, TB).
is there a team out there that thinks they can make him a reclamation project if that even fits?
Maybe give Matz back in a trade where the Mets get a prospect and a bad contract.
he's not worthy of a rotation spot on a contender and doesn't seem suited to the bullpen.
really wanted him to pan out. with all the injuries he suffered to start his career and the local angle, etc. would have been a nice story.
is there a team out there that thinks they can make him a reclamation project if that even fits?
Maybe give Matz back in a trade where the Mets get a prospect and a bad contract.
he's not worthy of a rotation spot on a contender and doesn't seem suited to the bullpen.
really wanted him to pan out. with all the injuries he suffered to start his career and the local angle, etc. would have been a nice story.
I think you might be able to swap him for a similar non-tender candidate at a similar price range. Or for another similar contract somewhere else. He definitely doesn't have surplus trade value but he might be just close enough to neutral someone would be willing to swap him.
I don't mind bringing him into camp though - especially if they have some confidence that someone he worked with in the organization previously can help. You can never have enough pitching depth and some guys do just take a while before they figure things out (even if it's just figuring out how to eat innings as a #5 starter).
Wilpons would sign Kluber, move Lugo to the rotation, sign some other "B" level reliever, and give up prospects for Meija and call it an offseason. We'd have to listen to a whole offseason from Wilpon defenders talking about how great Kluber is going to rebound and reading 3 year old draft profiles of Meija.
So happy Wilpons are gone and we can have a real offseason. I'm absolutely a bit concerned that the front office isn't being filled out, but it seems like theres a lot going on there that I'm not privvy to, so I'll just focus on the acquisition for now.
Quote:
Predicts Kluber signs with the Sox, Mets or Yankees. Boston considered the favorites as he lives there. Kluber would be a nice get but only as second arm. He can’t be the big get. He’s missed 2 seasons
Wilpons would sign Kluber, move Lugo to the rotation, sign some other "B" level reliever, and give up prospects for Meija and call it an offseason. We'd have to listen to a whole offseason from Wilpon defenders talking about how great Kluber is going to rebound and reading 3 year old draft profiles of Meija.
So happy Wilpons are gone and we can have a real offseason. I'm absolutely a bit concerned that the front office isn't being filled out, but it seems like theres a lot going on there that I'm not privvy to, so I'll just focus on the acquisition for now.
100% on point
Link - ( New Window )
Is everyone bound in the bidding to stay within the IFA budgets or is this one of those situations where it's a open auction?
Quote:
wouldn't help the 2021 Mets (most likely) but he'd be like adding an additional first-round pick to the system
Is everyone bound in the bidding to stay within the IFA budgets or is this one of those situations where it's a open auction?
They are bound by the IFA budgets which SHOULD help the Mets because at least in terms of what BA was hearing.. the Mets had not even dabbled on the higher end names of the IFA market (no this wasn't a Cohen thing, these agreements are generally in place up to 24 months in advance) but this COULD work in our favor. It's also possible he finds a team that "promises" him either an MLB roster spot (unlikely) or a quicker path to the bigs (very possible) but all-in on Colas if possible and when Kim is posted I like him as well.