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NFT: Mets Chat

DanMetroMan : 11/23/2020 10:11 am
Sandy to update the media at 4:30 on the ongoing search for FO hires.
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.  
pjcas18 : 12/2/2020 8:27 pm : link
Metsmerized - Joe D
Baseball
@MetsmerizedJoeD
·
1m
Latest Post: Mets Non-Tender Shreve, Tropeano, Sewald, and Jurado https://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=328339 #Mets #LGM #IBWAA
A few  
Pete in MD : 12/2/2020 8:35 pm : link
"can't miss prospects" are free agents today.
David Dahl non-tendered  
KDavies : 12/2/2020 9:12 pm : link
Is he any good defensively at CF? If so, he could be a fallback option to Springer
RE: David Dahl non-tendered  
Shecky : 12/3/2020 9:02 am : link
In comment 15064632 KDavies said:
Quote:
Is he any good defensively at CF? If so, he could be a fallback option to Springer

As someone who has always been one of Dahls biggest fans, he’s a ape rage at best defensively. Not comparing their games at all, but compare him to Nimmo. Good player, more offense than D, question is - can he stay healthy.

With that said, it’d be an absolute NO BRAINER to bring him in as a 4th OF type o rotate in. Backup starter to get 400 ABs. Backup plan for if/when Nimmo/Conforto get hurt. Or worse, traded. If he were a righty, there’d be zero reason. It to take a flyer.
ape rage?  
pjcas18 : 12/3/2020 9:03 am : link
no clue what you were trying to type that was auto-corrected to that or if that's some new phrase I don't know yet
Archie  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 9:07 am : link
Bradley, yes please.

Interesting note from @Ken_Rosenthal regarding @Braves non-tendering Duvall. It sounds as if teams are not completely confident the universal DH will be in place for 2021. @MLB needs to figure this out, and soon #Mets
The  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 9:08 am : link
Mets LOVED Dahl his draft year, put on an absolute show during his private BP.
Archie Bradley  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 9:34 am : link
IMO, were the Mets to go after him, I see it as a sign that Lugo is starting. They have Lugo, May, and Diaz for 7,8,9. Plus they have Betances and Familia. While I would never complain about adding another talented bullpen arm, I don't see it as a best use of resources unless the Mets plan to start Lugo. They need SP.
RE: ape rage?  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 9:41 am : link
In comment 15064802 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
no clue what you were trying to type that was auto-corrected to that or if that's some new phrase I don't know yet


think he was going for average. From now on I think we should use ape rage though, that's some unintentional excellence.
Ben  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 9:42 am : link
Clemens ranks Bradley the #2 available RP.

Adam Duvall potentially has 2 years of control, which makes him appealing to a bunch of teams

Almora can't hit, but he and Goodwin would be solid depth grabs

Casali wouldn't be an awful alternative to Realmuto/McCann if the money is spent in other areas

Overall despite the hype... pretty meh overall group of non-tenders
Bradley's velocity dropped and homers spiked this year  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 9:44 am : link
not saying he's a no, just with May already on board and the pen starting to get crowded not sure he adds a ton. I'd have no issues with it but the pen is down the list enough for me that unless I could get Hand some how I'd just wait to grab someone like Wilson on an affordable 1 year.
i really dont want to see Lugo in the rotation....  
Italianju : 12/3/2020 9:48 am : link
i mean we know he is an elite reliever, but we have barely seen anything that says he is even a solid starter. Sure he has some good starts here and there, but also some shit ones. There is no reason that the Mets without the financial limitations should move him back to the rotation. Lets just keep the elite elite reliever version.
RE: Bradley's velocity dropped and homers spiked this year  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 9:49 am : link
In comment 15064862 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
not saying he's a no, just with May already on board and the pen starting to get crowded not sure he adds a ton. I'd have no issues with it but the pen is down the list enough for me that unless I could get Hand some how I'd just wait to grab someone like Wilson on an affordable 1 year.


I'm hoping Wilson takes Shreve's spot since they non-tendered Shreve. With the 3 batter rule, I don't think multiple lefties is a must, but I would like to see at least a Wilson level lefty, as there will be times you will need one.
RE: Bradley's velocity dropped and homers spiked this year  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 9:51 am : link
In comment 15064862 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
not saying he's a no, just with May already on board and the pen starting to get crowded not sure he adds a ton. I'd have no issues with it but the pen is down the list enough for me that unless I could get Hand some how I'd just wait to grab someone like Wilson on an affordable 1 year.


Eric,
He'd easily be one of the Mets top 4 RP's after Lugo, May and Diaz. He allowed... 1 HR, so I'm kind of confused. How did they "spike"?
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 9:52 am : link
18.1 innings 17 hits 1 HR 3 walks 18 k's, 2.59 FIP
Also  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 9:53 am : link
for his career his FV is 94.3, 2020 it was 94.2, given the lack of normal ST.. there is nitpicking and there is this lol
RE: i really dont want to see Lugo in the rotation....  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 9:54 am : link
In comment 15064869 Italianju said:
Quote:
i mean we know he is an elite reliever, but we have barely seen anything that says he is even a solid starter. Sure he has some good starts here and there, but also some shit ones. There is no reason that the Mets without the financial limitations should move him back to the rotation. Lets just keep the elite elite reliever version.


I tend to agree. And that's why I don't see Bradley as a fit. Bradley, Lugo, May, and Diaz, plus Familia and Betances? Just way too much.
Familia  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 9:56 am : link
was one of the worst RP in baseball in 2020 and Betances might be completely shot. Bradley held lefties to a .171 BA and outside of 2019 has always handled them well. He would help immensly
RE: RE: Bradley's velocity dropped and homers spiked this year  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 9:56 am : link
In comment 15064874 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15064862 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


not saying he's a no, just with May already on board and the pen starting to get crowded not sure he adds a ton. I'd have no issues with it but the pen is down the list enough for me that unless I could get Hand some how I'd just wait to grab someone like Wilson on an affordable 1 year.



Eric,
He'd easily be one of the Mets top 4 RP's after Lugo, May and Diaz. He allowed... 1 HR, so I'm kind of confused. How did they "spike"?


I read the wrong column on his FG profile when I was looking him up - I went the bottom thinking it was his most recent year and didn't realize it was the 2021 steamer projection (which is almost 3x his 2020 rate).
All  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 9:58 am : link
due respect but I'm not taking projected HR rates on steamer as proof of ANYTHING. 1 HR allowed despite pitching in Arizona and Cinci, 2019 he allowed 5 in 71.2 innings. HR's aren't an issue for Bradley, they are for May however.
For  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:01 am : link
context, last 82 appearances Bradley has allowed 6 homers last 158 appearances he's allowed 15. May last 89 appearances (I'm just adding 2019-2020, not fudging the numbers) has allowed 13, last 157 he's allowed 24
Not  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:02 am : link
great reading that Braves mindset, if there is no DH we are unusually screwed.
No  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:03 am : link
DH means any given game we will have 2 of Alonso, Dom, Nimmo, Davis on the bench, and Dom really should see more time in the OF as is.
RE: Also  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 10:04 am : link
In comment 15064881 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
for his career his FV is 94.3, 2020 it was 94.2, given the lack of normal ST.. there is nitpicking and there is this lol


FB last 4 years:

17 - 96.3
18 - 95.6
19 - 95.5
20 - 94.2

Again he's not a hard pass - just not sure if there's all that much room left in the pen because I completely agree with you that Lugo should not be a starter. Unless they think Betances and Familia are just completely shot then maybe they do need another late inning option, but on paper they already have 5 under contract.
RE: All  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 10:06 am : link
In comment 15064895 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
due respect but I'm not taking projected HR rates on steamer as proof of ANYTHING. 1 HR allowed despite pitching in Arizona and Cinci, 2019 he allowed 5 in 71.2 innings. HR's aren't an issue for Bradley, they are for May however.


I agree steamer means nothing - I just read the wrong column because they placed it at the bottom of his year by year stats (thinking it was the most recent season).
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:08 am : link
mean they gave Barnes a guaranteed deal (small money so they can cut him easily) but that does suggest they believe they need more pen help. Brach opted in, was awful, again small enough number he can be let go. I'd easily take Bradley over both and I'm on record suggesting Barnes COULD be a sleeper of sorts.
Steamer  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:08 am : link
and ZIps are fun to play around with but that's mostly their value
RE: Familia  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 10:09 am : link
In comment 15064886 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
was one of the worst RP in baseball in 2020 and Betances might be completely shot. Bradley held lefties to a .171 BA and outside of 2019 has always handled them well. He would help immensly


I fully understand Bradley is much better than Familia and Betances. That was not at all my point. Familia has an $11 million cost, and Betances a $6 million one. I do not see either of them pitching meaningful innings for the Mets this year before being off the payroll.

My point is between the cost of Betances, Familia, May, Diaz, and Lugo, that is an awful lot of resources to the bullpen. In Lugo, May, and Diaz, you have three players that will pitch in the 7,8, and 9 innings. Plus they need a lefty, like a Wilson.

Should one of them get injured, you have Barnes, McWilliams, Betances, Familia, etc. that can hopefully step up and pitch adequately in the 7th.

Absent a Lugo move to the rotation (which would allow the Mets to go cheap there), I don't see Bradley as a fit.

Mets rotation right now is deGrom, Stroman, Peterson, and Matz? until Thor gets back. IMO, they need a top SP, and a depth SP. They also need a catcher and a CF. I don't see a 4th top bullpen guy as a fit. And I don't know that Bradley would have an interest in the Mets for that reason. He may want to go somewhere else where he can be guaranteed a prominent role in the bullpen.
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:11 am : link
don't think they penciling Matz or Gsellman into their plans. They have non-guaranteed contracts. I also believe they would have moved on from Familia, Brach and Betances if they had their choice, I think Cohen will do so FAR quicker than the Wilpons. Dumping Brach at 2 million and giving Bradley 1 year 5, makes Bradley a 1 year 7 million dollar commitment. Sure makes sense to me.
so much for  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:13 am : link
all of these big players being dumped lol

And here's the All-Non-Tender pitching staff:

Rotation:
Jose Urena
Tyler Anderson
Carlos Rodon
Chi Chi Gonzalez
Ryne Stanek (opener)

Bullpen:
Archie Bradley
Hansel Robles
Jonathan Holder
Alex Claudio
Matt Andriese
Chasen Shreve
MVP candidate Ryan Tepera
IL - John Brebbia
RE: RE: Familia  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 10:13 am : link
In comment 15064916 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15064886 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


was one of the worst RP in baseball in 2020 and Betances might be completely shot. Bradley held lefties to a .171 BA and outside of 2019 has always handled them well. He would help immensly



I fully understand Bradley is much better than Familia and Betances. That was not at all my point. Familia has an $11 million cost, and Betances a $6 million one. I do not see either of them pitching meaningful innings for the Mets this year before being off the payroll.

My point is between the cost of Betances, Familia, May, Diaz, and Lugo, that is an awful lot of resources to the bullpen. In Lugo, May, and Diaz, you have three players that will pitch in the 7,8, and 9 innings. Plus they need a lefty, like a Wilson.

Should one of them get injured, you have Barnes, McWilliams, Betances, Familia, etc. that can hopefully step up and pitch adequately in the 7th.

Absent a Lugo move to the rotation (which would allow the Mets to go cheap there), I don't see Bradley as a fit.

Mets rotation right now is deGrom, Stroman, Peterson, and Matz? until Thor gets back. IMO, they need a top SP, and a depth SP. They also need a catcher and a CF. I don't see a 4th top bullpen guy as a fit. And I don't know that Bradley would have an interest in the Mets for that reason. He may want to go somewhere else where he can be guaranteed a prominent role in the bullpen.


this is basically my thinking as well. And since we saw some good velocity from Familia and Betances at times, I'm curious to see what happens with the new regime. I think there was a lot of organizational pitcher mismanagement. Diaz, Matz, Familia all had major regression the last 2 years under whatever organizational shifts BVW's group attempted, and we know Callaway was a complete turd.
Sorry  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:13 am : link
that's Jayson Stark's list FWIW
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:15 am : link
think it's unrealistic to believe that a new owner changes what we've seen from a guy like Familia. Hefner is presumably returning, what would change? He talked up his fitness regimen, came in and was even worst in 2020. He looks shot.
Casali  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:18 am : link
2018-2020 .260/.345/.440
RE: I  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 10:22 am : link
In comment 15064920 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
don't think they penciling Matz or Gsellman into their plans. They have non-guaranteed contracts. I also believe they would have moved on from Familia, Brach and Betances if they had their choice, I think Cohen will do so FAR quicker than the Wilpons. Dumping Brach at 2 million and giving Bradley 1 year 5, makes Bradley a 1 year 7 million dollar commitment. Sure makes sense to me.


You think Bradley is signing for a 1 year $5 million contract? That seems awfully low for me. I would think he would make significantly more than that. Obviously, if there are no takers and the Mets can get him for $5 million. I just don't envision that happening. I see Bradley as a closer or 8th inning guy, and getting paid as such.

As for Matz, I put a question mark. I do not want him starting. That is why I want two SPs. deGrom, Stroman, Peterson, and two additions. One addition is a depth guy. Peterson or the depth addition to the bullpen when Thor is back, although injuries have a way of working things out.
RE: RE: I  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:26 am : link
In comment 15064936 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15064920 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


don't think they penciling Matz or Gsellman into their plans. They have non-guaranteed contracts. I also believe they would have moved on from Familia, Brach and Betances if they had their choice, I think Cohen will do so FAR quicker than the Wilpons. Dumping Brach at 2 million and giving Bradley 1 year 5, makes Bradley a 1 year 7 million dollar commitment. Sure makes sense to me.



You think Bradley is signing for a 1 year $5 million contract? That seems awfully low for me. I would think he would make significantly more than that. Obviously, if there are no takers and the Mets can get him for $5 million. I just don't envision that happening. I see Bradley as a closer or 8th inning guy, and getting paid as such.

As for Matz, I put a question mark. I do not want him starting. That is why I want two SPs. deGrom, Stroman, Peterson, and two additions. One addition is a depth guy. Peterson or the depth addition to the bullpen when Thor is back, although injuries have a way of working things out.


May was considered the 3rd best RP on the market and yet signed very quickly for 7.5 per. I do think Bradley comes in at roughly 6 million per. A big issue with Matz is despite being lefty, he's not strong vs. lefties so "put him in the pen" isn't a panacea.
RE: I  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 10:26 am : link
In comment 15064925 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
think it's unrealistic to believe that a new owner changes what we've seen from a guy like Familia. Hefner is presumably returning, what would change? He talked up his fitness regimen, came in and was even worst in 2020. He looks shot.


We have no idea what kind of philosophy shifts the organization tried to make (throw higher in the zone, lower in the zone, more FB, etc) - not to mention whatever adjustments Callaway/Eiland tried to make before he'd gotten fired in 2019. We also don't know how much of an impact Ramos had the last 2 years. On the whole defense was a big negative and he was the biggest negative for pitchers with hard breaking balls down in the zone.

All we know is they took a guy who had an all time season in 2018 and made him awful in 2019/2020 even though his stuff was still as electric as anyone in the league (k rate) so if they can do that to him...what else were they capable of accidentally (incompetently) destroying?
Eric  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:27 am : link
I'm not being obtuse but I'm confused what Eiland/Callaway have to do with Familia this season? He had a brand new pitching coach (Hefner) known for getting the most out of RP's in Minnesota (See May) and a brand new manager. Why would the old pitching coach/manager be carrying over?
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:28 am : link
was very "happy" to finally hear a Mets official (Sandy) acknowledge the below

"
Christopher Soto
@SotoC803
·
10m
Yep....not to mention.....what little depth they have on the 40 man roster is all bullpen arms except for Patrick Mazeika

There's only 1 prospect on it (Szapucki).

No prospects
No veterans
No depth

.....absolutely nothing....."
Matz  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 10:29 am : link
would be in the bullpen as a longman/spot starter. I wouldn't anticipate him being brought in as a lefty in crucial situations. I think they would still need a Wilson type.
Yup  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:30 am : link

Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
· 52m
When you look at the Mets 40-man roster and the upper minors, it’s almost amazing at how thorough Brodie Van Wagenen was at stripping away talent and adding none at the same time.
all of this BP discussion is pushing me back to all in on JTR  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 10:35 am : link
sometimes maybe we over think things, he is possibly the best defensive catcher in baseball. #2 on the framing leaderboard and #1 in pop time/#3 in throwing velocity (which both speak to his athleticism).

Over the next 3 years, is there anyone we'd expect to be better defensively in all of baseball? And we know his offense is ++ for a catcher too.

The difference between JTR and any other individual catcher available is a lot bigger than the difference between Nimmo and Springer. Or Springer and someone like Lorenzo Cain. And if it is Nimmo in CF, we also know we have a potential all star LF in McNeil too (and maybe open up a spot for Dom if there's no DH or JDD if there is).

There is no bigger advocate of improving the defense on the planet than me and I think an OF of McNeil - Nimmo - Conforto is solid (especially if you have a strong backup CF'er to mix in).
RE: Yup  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 10:36 am : link
In comment 15064948 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
· 52m
When you look at the Mets 40-man roster and the upper minors, it’s almost amazing at how thorough Brodie Van Wagenen was at stripping away talent and adding none at the same time.


Is Castro any better than Barnes or McWilliams? Both who they signed for $750k. Yet they gave up Smith for him. Seems like a small deal at the time, but it may be the most inexplicable one. They have a huge need for SP depth in AAA/AA. They trade their minor league pitcher of the year for a replacable bullpen piece.

Wheeler/Stroman pisses me off as well. Should have resigned Wheeler who wanted to be here. Kept Kay and SWR, and gone after Stroman as a FA if they wanted him.
RE: Yup  
Mike in NY : 12/3/2020 10:37 am : link
In comment 15064948 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
· 52m
When you look at the Mets 40-man roster and the upper minors, it’s almost amazing at how thorough Brodie Van Wagenen was at stripping away talent and adding none at the same time.


Perhaps we can call up Justin Dunn and Kevin Smith as reinforcements...oh wait
Castro  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:37 am : link
has a very live arm but he's a dime a dozen RP. He could be cut before OD and I wouldn't be shocked.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:38 am : link
@fangraphs does not have @Mets signing any of their top available international prospects (note, some are still in Japan and can't be signed)
RE: Eric  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 10:45 am : link
In comment 15064942 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
I'm not being obtuse but I'm confused what Eiland/Callaway have to do with Familia this season? He had a brand new pitching coach (Hefner) known for getting the most out of RP's in Minnesota (See May) and a brand new manager. Why would the old pitching coach/manager be carrying over?


The majority of Familia's sample size since returning was 2019 and bad habits developed then may still need to be corrected. This year's numbers aren't meaningless but they hold a fraction of the value of a "normal season".

Familia went from a 3.5bb/9 walk rate in both 2018 and over his entire career to a 6+bb/9 walk rate the last 2 seasons. He was always wild but an already somewhat wild pitcher doubling his walk rate is red alarm jarring statistic.

Edwin Diaz went from 2.0bb/9 walk rate in 2018 to 3.4 in 2019 and 4.9 in 2020 (despite having a decent mini season). So it wasn't just Familia having a problem.

Both of those pitchers throw explosive late breaking balls. Ramos' poor defense for high velocity pitchers was so notable Thor had a personal catcher.

If I were leading a new regime coming in, especially if I had seen what worked with Familia in particular in the past, my number 1 priority would be finding an organizational pitching philosophy that gets more out of talented pitchers as opposed to less.
But  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:48 am : link
Diaz bounced back from 2019 and everyone has given him praise, Familia we just point to sample size? He can't throw strikes when he needs to. Honest question, if he were a FA would you target him? I find that hard to believe.
Diaz  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:50 am : link
was completely dominant with Ramos catching him (.140 against), vs. 286 with the superior defensive Nido
The  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:52 am : link
rich get richer


Jorge Castillo
@jorgecastillo
The Dodgers are close to signing 16-year-old Venezuelan catcher Jesus Galiz, per sources. Galiz is MLB Pipeline's 7th-ranked international prospect and the top-ranked catcher. The Yankees had been the favorites to sign him, but Galiz recently changed his mind.


Really not sure what happened this signing period. Even under the cheapest of Wilpon years they still generally went after some top 20-30 IFA's
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