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NFT: Mets Chat

DanMetroMan : 11/23/2020 10:11 am
Sandy to update the media at 4:30 on the ongoing search for FO hires.
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If healthy  
pjcas18 : 12/3/2020 10:53 am : link
it's hard for me to understand how a pitcher still in their prime can go from Familia 2015/2016 to Familia 2019/2020.

the guy had MVP votes in 2016.

Is it mental? Is it on coaching? Shouldn't coaches be responsible for fixing mechanics?

Seems like velocity is pretty consistent.
He  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:56 am : link
claimed it was from weight gain, he was arguably worse in 2020 after losing the weight.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 10:58 am : link
2021 Outlook
There are two things to be concerned with when it comes to Familia repeating his success. His 4.92 FIP was worse than it was in 2019. What saved him was his BABIP being just under 100 points lower in 2020 (.346 to .247). Familia’s walk and strikeout rates heading in opposite directions is also a cause for concern. Both were his worst numbers since his 2013 season when he only pitched in nine games.

Overall, Familia was productive with a 3.71 ERA in 25 games. As he heads into the final year of his deal, they could be cautious with how they used him early in the season. Despite the ERA being lower, other statistics show that he is in the middle of a regression. By no means that is his course for 2021, but his walk rate will be the root of any problems.


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Def wouldn't target Familia if he were a FA but my point is broader  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:00 am : link
if there are trends of players underperforming in a particular area, you need to solve for why that is. Or else you aren't going to get your money's worth on whatever players you add.

My speculation is that overall defense has had a big negative impact on our pitching staff. With catching defense being the biggest individual problem within that. That's not even speculation every metric bears that out. The speculation is how much of an impact it had on the pitchers and I think it was bigger than many think.

I think a secondary factor in some of the pitchers underperforming the past few years was overall terrible organizational management + hiring post Warthen. Started with hiring Callaway/Eiland and who knows what happened behind the scenes under BVW. Hefner may or may not be good but he is 1 guy and he was a first time pitching coach in a shortened season. If there was an organizational philosophy under BVW you can bet he was at least somewhat buying into it even if he didn't fully agree with it.
RE: Diaz  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:06 am : link
In comment 15064981 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
was completely dominant with Ramos catching him (.140 against), vs. 286 with the superior defensive Nido


are these cumulative numbers over the last 2 years or based on a split of his 25 innings this past year? If it's the latter and we are talking about ~10 innings for either catcher that would seem way too small a sample size to draw any conclusions.
RE: RE: Diaz  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:11 am : link
In comment 15065000 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15064981 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


was completely dominant with Ramos catching him (.140 against), vs. 286 with the superior defensive Nido



are these cumulative numbers over the last 2 years or based on a split of his 25 innings this past year? If it's the latter and we are talking about ~10 innings for either catcher that would seem way too small a sample size to draw any conclusions.


2020 numbers ie Diaz bounce-back season included success with Ramos
RE: If healthy  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:13 am : link
In comment 15064984 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
it's hard for me to understand how a pitcher still in their prime can go from Familia 2015/2016 to Familia 2019/2020.

the guy had MVP votes in 2016.

Is it mental? Is it on coaching? Shouldn't coaches be responsible for fixing mechanics?

Seems like velocity is pretty consistent.


It could be any or all of the above. Here's what we know changed for him in 2019:

He went from a defined role as a closer, mostly entering games with nobody on base, to a more uncertain role where he did sometimes enter with runners on base.

The manager of the team was incompetent and the pitching coach got fired midseason - and the team improved with the new pitching coach but replaced him with a first time pitching coach for 2020.

The team defense was terrible - that's not so different because the Met defense wasn't great for most of his prior stint, but it was worse - particularly at catcher.

Those are the knowns. The unknown is whether or not the organization had shifted philosophy under BVW and was asking their pitchers to do anything fundamentally different. Throw more of X pitch, focus more down in the zone, etc. I have no idea about this but I'd imagine if there's a turnaround some version of "under the previous regime they'd been asking their pitchers to focus on XYZ, and now there's a more individualized approach that lets players pitch to their strengths" in every beat writers retrospective puff pieces.
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:14 am : link
really can't accept Familia's issues are Ramos when Diaz was fine with him. Familia had trouble throwing strikes, in his prime his super sinker was close to unhittable and his command was better. Neither are the case any longer.
Agree with this  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:15 am : link
2021 Outlook

Looking at his advanced metrics for the season, there are some things that Jeurys Familia does well that bring some promise for the future. His exit velocity against (85.9 mph), barrel percentage (4.0) and hard hit percentage (30.7) all rank in the 86th percentile or higher among other pitchers in the MLB.

Since he still throws hard and is generating great movement on his sinker and slider, Familia is hard to square up. The problem for the veteran is that he has lost his ability to put batters away and is still walking them at a high clip.

For the first time in his career, Familia’s strikeout percentage dipped below 20% (19.2 K%), while his walk rate was over 15% for the second year in a row. Unless the 31-year-old can start to put hitter’s away instead of putting them on base, he will struggle to live up to the $11.67 million the Mets are going to pay him next season.
RE: RE: RE: Diaz  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:16 am : link
In comment 15065005 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15065000 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15064981 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


was completely dominant with Ramos catching him (.140 against), vs. 286 with the superior defensive Nido



are these cumulative numbers over the last 2 years or based on a split of his 25 innings this past year? If it's the latter and we are talking about ~10 innings for either catcher that would seem way too small a sample size to draw any conclusions.



2020 numbers ie Diaz bounce-back season included success with Ramos


Right but you would agree it doesn't mean much if it's only a handful of innings? Nido played 7 games last year, Diaz could have had more innings thrown to Chirinos (12g) or Ali Sanchez (5g).
I'd  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:18 am : link
like to see the Mets make use of the minor leave rule 5, you can find legit depth there, the Mets sure as hell need that.
RE: I  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:18 am : link
In comment 15065008 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
really can't accept Familia's issues are Ramos when Diaz was fine with him. Familia had trouble throwing strikes, in his prime his super sinker was close to unhittable and his command was better. Neither are the case any longer.


Nobody is saying that's the only reason. Just that it's a factor.

Coaching is probably the biggest factor but we don't know whether or not they asked him to do anything different or made adjustments that didn't work.

I do think we can safely guess they probably did but it's impossible to guess the extent to which that directly impacted his performance.
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:20 am : link
just have a very hard time placing the blame for Familia on Ramos. Even a non-scout can see he has trouble throwing strikes when he needs to. He wasn't screwed by framing and his breaking ball didn't fool hitters. Lots of fouled off pitches tells you that hitters are "on" to his stuff.
I'll  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:23 am : link
say this, I'm not sold on Hefner. I know people like him and he's intelligent but he was the assistant pitching coach in Minnesota, the Mets didn't really see success stories and the Twins pen was the best in baseball by fWAR without him and that included impressive seasons from newcomers like Clippard and Wisler (another option for the Mets).
Not good  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:31 am : link

Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
The fact that there is no MLB-MLBPA agreement on the universal DH for 2021 completely undercuts the large group of corner OF/DH/corner slugger types among the free agents. An already bad situation for those players made worse.
RE: Not good  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:32 am : link
In comment 15065033 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
The fact that there is no MLB-MLBPA agreement on the universal DH for 2021 completely undercuts the large group of corner OF/DH/corner slugger types among the free agents. An already bad situation for those players made worse.


Another reason to possibly go big on Realmuto.

Springer makes our COF situation that much harder to figure out (if Nimmo and Dom are both still here).
Hefner  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:41 am : link
back per Martino
RE: RE: Not good  
Metnut : 12/3/2020 11:45 am : link
In comment 15065036 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15065033 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:



Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
The fact that there is no MLB-MLBPA agreement on the universal DH for 2021 completely undercuts the large group of corner OF/DH/corner slugger types among the free agents. An already bad situation for those players made worse.



Another reason to possibly go big on Realmuto.

Springer makes our COF situation that much harder to figure out (if Nimmo and Dom are both still here).


Don’t have a lot to add but enjoyed reading this discussion between you and Dan.

Agreed on Realmuto. The cost and term will be big but there’s no help on the way for the next two plus years. Lets sign the best catcher in baseball and try and win a ring for Degrom. It’s not like Realmuto is old. He’s been remarkably consistent and good for 4 years running now. He fills a desperate need and only costs money.
,  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:45 am : link
John Brebbia must not be 100% because otherwise I do not understand why the Cardinals would non-tender a guy projected to make sub-1 million. I'd be ALL over him, even if he's still on the mend
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Brebbia  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 11:47 am : link
3.39 career FIP, 10.18 K/9. Missed 2020 with TJ
that's my thinking too Metnut  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 11:53 am : link
I have more confidence Springer will be close to what he is now in the later years of his deal even if he shifts to a corner, but Realmuto will make a much bigger impact as long as he remains the player he is now. Which should be at least 2 seasons.

Signing both seems greedy/unlikely but it's not impossible to do so and stay under the tax threshold if you then trade from excess to add some youngish pitching. If you sign Springer you almost have to trade at least 1 of Nimmo / JDD / Dom if there's no DH, and maybe 2.
Sherman saying Mets like  
Metnut : 12/3/2020 1:05 pm : link
James McCann and are considering him instead of Realmuto.
RE: Sherman saying Mets like  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:11 pm : link
In comment 15065133 Metnut said:
Quote:
James McCann and are considering him instead of Realmuto.


Hopefully just saying that to maintain a little leverage.
RE: RE: Sherman saying Mets like  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 1:27 pm : link
In comment 15065136 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15065133 Metnut said:


Quote:


James McCann and are considering him instead of Realmuto.



Hopefully just saying that to maintain a little leverage.


Personally, I've thought best case (realistic) scenario all along was Bauer, Springer, and McCann. Don't get me wrong. I'd take Realmuto. But I would rather the top SP and the top CF over Realmuto.
4 years?  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:34 pm : link
Yeesh. Don’t love it.
If  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:35 pm : link
Indeed is 4 years this is a very questionable move unless the money is much lower than the projected low-teens people are projecting. They better land at least one of Springer or Bauer or the off-season (barring some unknown trade that would of course hurt the farm) occurs. They talked big, gotta land at least one of the big names.. or else
RE: 4 years?  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:36 pm : link
In comment 15065157 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Yeesh. Don’t love it.


Did something happen?
Seidler hates it  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:37 pm : link
(And he’s a Mets fan)

“There's very little evidence he's anything more than a league average starting catcher and not a particularly large amount of evidence he's even that. Do you really want to lock in his age 31-34 seasons because he just had a nice 30 games as a backup? in the last two offseasons he has been released and then relegated to a backup, this isn't some weird "BP's metrics don't like him" shit, other major-league teams keep treating him like a marginal starter“
RE: RE: 4 years?  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:37 pm : link
In comment 15065159 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15065157 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Yeesh. Don’t love it.



Did something happen?


Robert Murray is reporting its looking like he will get 4 years
RE: RE: 4 years?  
JB_in_DC : 12/3/2020 1:38 pm : link
In comment 15065159 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Did something happen?



@ByRobertMurray
Mets in active talks with free-agent catcher James McCann, according to league sources. A deal is not yet close, but it is looking increasingly likely he will land a four-year deal.
Link - ( New Window )
Murray broke the news:  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:38 pm : link
Mets in active talks with free-agent catcher James McCann, according to league sources. A deal is not yet close, but it is looking increasingly likely he will land a four-year deal.
Fangraphs really liked his 2020  
Metnut : 12/3/2020 1:40 pm : link
performance. Had McCann at 1.5 war and Realmuto at 1.7.
I don't like it at all and hope this is just a ploy to get Realmuto  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:41 pm : link
his only 2 good offensive seasons (the last 2 years) have been on inflated BABIP's. .340 and .360 for a slow catcher don't seem sustainable.

He's only had 1 good year in terms of pitch framing, 2020, and prior had been mostly bad.

Even with positive defensive grades on FG, in 2018 when his BABIP was .282 he was a negative fwar player.

4 years for him is highly unappealing to me. Highly.
4 years  
pjcas18 : 12/3/2020 1:41 pm : link
wouldn't be ideal, but need to see the $$$.

maybe 4 years would give him a one-year mentorship for Alvarez.

Is McCann a leader? The Mets desperately need a player leader IMO. and it has to be a position player IMO. It's often catchers who fill this role.
RE: Fangraphs really liked his 2020  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:42 pm : link
In comment 15065170 Metnut said:
Quote:
performance. Had McCann at 1.5 war and Realmuto at 1.7.


He’s 31 in June with very little MLB success and a history of terrible defense (better recently) unnecessary gamble at 4 years. He’s going to be 32 year 2 of this deal.
RE: Not good  
Section331 : 12/3/2020 1:42 pm : link
In comment 15065033 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
The fact that there is no MLB-MLBPA agreement on the universal DH for 2021 completely undercuts the large group of corner OF/DH/corner slugger types among the free agents. An already bad situation for those players made worse.


It is borderline malpractice for MLB not to have this resolved prior to the FA period starting. It really screws NL teams.
Hopefully this was something leaked by McCann's agent  
debo_GIANTS : 12/3/2020 1:44 pm : link
It seems with the new ownership, they have plugged all the leaks coming out of the Mets front office.

The Trevor May deal was done for a week before it was announced by the media.
put the tinfoil hat on me bc I think this is a pre-WM ploy for JTR  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:45 pm : link
maybe that's just wishful thinking but I don't understand any desire to go 4 years for McCann. And certainly no need to prioritize him. Would rather sign Yadi. Or just patiently wait while filling other positions and seeing if someone else shakes loose via trade.
Fangraphs  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:46 pm : link
Ranked him their 33rd best FA and projected 2 years 12 million (6 per)

Quality catchers aren’t easy to come by these days, and for teams that can’t afford to offer a nine-figure deal to Realmuto and are loath to invest in a 38-year-old Molina (or simply aren’t the Cardinals), McCann offers a reasonable alternative. Admittedly, his track record for above-average play isn’t a long one; he was 0.7 wins below replacement as recently as 2018, and netted -0.1 WAR from 2014-18, that while hitting for just a 75 wRC+. Even so, his 3.8 WAR over the past two seasons is tied for fifth among catchers, while his 116 wRC+ is eighth.

Underlying his recent performance are substantial improvements on both sides of the ball. From 2015-18, McCann posted an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph and a .304 xwOBA, but he’s up to an average of 90.2 mph over the past two seasons, with a .328 xwOBA. Meanwhile, he posted his first above-average framing numbers this year (2.3 runs, up from -9.0 by our data, and from -8.0 to 1.5 via Baseball Prospectus). He’d be an upgrade for several teams. – JJ
RE: RE: Fangraphs really liked his 2020  
Section331 : 12/3/2020 1:49 pm : link
In comment 15065174 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15065170 Metnut said:


Quote:


performance. Had McCann at 1.5 war and Realmuto at 1.7.



He’s 31 in June with very little MLB success and a history of terrible defense (better recently) unnecessary gamble at 4 years. He’s going to be 32 year 2 of this deal.


The thing with Realmuto is that he is a good enough athlete to move if you needed to at the back end of his contract. No such option with McCann.

If this is true, I would hope it's a positive sign for signing other marquee FA's like Bauer, Springer, etc. If the FA period is McCann and Trevor May, that would be a huge disappointment.
MLBTR  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 1:52 pm : link
Has him 16th, 2 for 20.

He’s a solid player. My issue is 4 years. Unless the money is lower than people think annually it’s silly to give him 4
Fangraphs now has the statcast info in there which is pretty cool  
Eric on Li : 12/3/2020 1:54 pm : link
and does show offensive improvements from McCann. His hard hit% the past 2 years was up significantly from his prior career. The past 2 years were 44% and 47% respectively, and prior to that he was in the mid-30's (career 38% including the last 2 years).

So there is reason to believe the power he has showed the last 2 years is legitimate. It may be fair to say his power is even comparable to JTR.

There's no reason to think he's better at literally anything else though and he's a year older.
one thing I don't understand  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 2:06 pm : link
is why Mets would go after McCann first. To me a McCann rather than Realmuto indicates they are going after bigger fish at other positions. I don't understand why they wouldn't get those other bigger fish first and then McCann. If they fail on getting Bauer and/or Springer, then go Realmuto.

Hopefully just talk at this point, or they already have something in place with one (or more) of the other big fish.
I’m  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 2:12 pm : link
Honestly not surprised.

I tweeted this back in September

“ Really have to wonder if despite all of the talk, @Mets sit out Realmuto. If Cohen is heavy into analytics, then a 30 year old C on a 5-6-7 year deal is a tough bet. #Mets”

Also sounds like Hill no longer a candidate to join the FO, no interviews expected this week
What  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 2:15 pm : link
They HAVE done is set expectations high enough that if they don’t sign one of the big 3 FA fans are going to be very disappointed, myself included
Would love McCann  
jpkmets : 12/3/2020 2:17 pm : link
My dream offseason has been

Springer
Bauer
MCann
BP help
Secondary SP

Loved the White Sox last year -- watched them a lot. Big fan of McCann's performance. Offense for him would be gravy. He'd be there to manage a staff, frame well, work with pitchers. I have a lot more faith in his skills holding up through 34-35 than Realmuto's ability to anchor an offense while playing catcher for 6 years.

Ideally hope the 4th year would be a team option, but I'm so down with this.
RE: Would love McCann  
KDavies : 12/3/2020 2:20 pm : link
In comment 15065213 jpkmets said:
Quote:
My dream offseason has been

Springer
Bauer
MCann
BP help
Secondary SP

Loved the White Sox last year -- watched them a lot. Big fan of McCann's performance. Offense for him would be gravy. He'd be there to manage a staff, frame well, work with pitchers. I have a lot more faith in his skills holding up through 34-35 than Realmuto's ability to anchor an offense while playing catcher for 6 years.

Ideally hope the 4th year would be a team option, but I'm so down with this.


That is exactly my hope for the offseason.
I’m  
DanMetroMan : 12/3/2020 2:23 pm : link
The guy who has been pushing Omar Narvaez and Casali so I’m not crying over Realmuto. I’ve wanted Springer and Bauer as my big 2 and still do
I am a no  
pjcas18 : 12/3/2020 2:30 pm : link
on JTR (if I had a choice lol)

I've said all along those $$$ are better used in my world on defense and pitching.

my only issue with McCann is I'm not sure about his D (and I include framing in D). I have been consistent I'd sacrifice offense from the catcher spot for defense.

if it meant the Mets could add a Bauer and Springer or even trade for an Arenado or Lindor (with an extension).

That said I'm not going to lose my shit if the Mets don't sign either Springer or Bauer.

but save their money for another day. I know fans are eager to get better, but sometimes patience is the best course of action for building a sustainable winner.

And that's what I want more than the instant gratification of a competitive 2021. Both long and short term success would be good, but I'm thinking big picture.
David O'Brien gave me some DH  
jpkmets : 12/3/2020 2:32 pm : link
insight.

Really seems like no DH in the NL, which is fine with me!


David O'Brien
@DOBrienATL
But it's us, not teams, acting as thought there might be a DH. NL teams are planning as if there will not be one, because that's how things stand and there's still no plan for the sides to meet to change that.
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