So what do we do with Saquon?

If you look at CMC’s contract, the Panthers only locked themselves into an extra year. In years 4, 5, and 6 (20-22) he’s effectively on a 3/39M deal, and they can cut him with a 8.5M hit after 2022.

If the Giants let Barkley play out years 4 and 5, it’s going to cost them ~20M. The Giants should leverage this situation to extend Barkley, and make part of the guaranteed money contingent on him returning to form next year.

It seems to me that when people argue for Barkley they base their argument on emotion and hypothetical supposition. “If Barks had a great line...” or “if Saquon were healthy” or “if he played with other great players”. Saying he’s a “leader” or a “good guy” or whatever else can only be supposition (I suppose). And there’s the emotional which I think is tied to being invested in the draft pick or the person or the team or the GM. But on balance it seems that Barkley supporters are apt to see what could have been or what may be in the future. They see Barkley’s amazing runs and imagine him doing the same thing for entire games in future.

Those which argue against extending Barks, seem to me at least, to more rooted in what Saquon has actually been to date. They look at his production, his games, catches, pass pro, etc and they see an often injured player with a really great rookie season and then not too much else on a really lousy team. Barks detractors don’t really kill the player, he’s a good guy, they just look at other RB1s and how they’re paid and where they’re drafted and how many years they play in the NFL. Rational analysis would seem to indicate that RB1 isn’t a position to draft high for a whole host of reason based resource allocation arguments. It doesn’t seem like a good use of cap money. It isn’t likely a position of great longevity. And even among the outliers, a la Zeke or CMC or AK, Barks hasn’t really equaled these guys. At least not yet.

In comment 15057743 trueblueinpw said:

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It seems to me that when people argue for Barkley they base their argument on emotion and hypothetical supposition. “If Barks had a great line...” or “if Saquon were healthy” or “if he played with other great players”. Saying he’s a “leader” or a “good guy” or whatever else can only be supposition (I suppose). And there’s the emotional which I think is tied to being invested in the draft pick or the person or the team or the GM. But on balance it seems that Barkley supporters are apt to see what could have been or what may be in the future. They see Barkley’s amazing runs and imagine him doing the same thing for entire games in future. Those which argue against extending Barks, seem to me at least, to more rooted in what Saquon has actually been to date. They look at his production, his games, catches, pass pro, etc and they see an often injured player with a really great rookie season and then not too much else on a really lousy team. Barks detractors don’t really kill the player, he’s a good guy, they just look at other RB1s and how they’re paid and where they’re drafted and how many years they play in the NFL. Rational analysis would seem to indicate that RB1 isn’t a position to draft high for a whole host of reason based resource allocation arguments. It doesn’t seem like a good use of cap money. It isn’t likely a position of great longevity. And even among the outliers, a la Zeke or CMC or AK, Barks hasn’t really equaled these guys. At least not yet.

Barks has equalled these guys and more. Put them in our situation and you don't see them hitting the numbers they have on their team either. Trying to project playerss and how they good are when you remove them from what is going on around them is exactly how you pay guys. Or you'd literally see teams wander around just sucking year after year because hey we didn't win with these guys so we can lose without them. Yeah but then you are constantly letting good players leave and trying to replace them with a bunch of scrubs. FA is pretty anemic these days outside some outlier situations, like new coach coming in or teams really strapped for cash.

And I think you hit on a fundamental point that I'd argue the complete opposite. To many people are outcome dependant instead of process. Put up good stats you are good player, put up bad stats and your a bad player. Play for a bad team and ipso facto you're a bad player as well. Saw this argument made about Odell which to me was asinine. Still think it was the right move to trade him for other reasons, but that one I really disagree with. Football is the quintessential team sport.

Take someone like Engram, certainly has limitations, but you can take advantage of his strengths a lot more with Barkley in the lineup. With the way the offensive line has played this year, teams are going to have no choice but to play man. Engram will kill teams on crossing routes in this situation. That's how bad our offensive line has been, teams have been getting away with playing more zone than they should be against a talent like Saquon. No longer the case, but we still don't see a ton of man because our RBs scare no one.

Going into this year, if you were to take all teams and have them construct a roster for one year, Barkley would certainly be the first RB taken among his peers.

I actually don’t think Barks is a great NFL RB. He’s just not physical enough and this shows in pass pro and dancing in the hole and running out of bounds. Oddly enough, even though he seems to be averse to contact he also has a penchant now for injury. He’s a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Yes. But he has a lot of plays and series and even games where he simply isn’t a factor. I also don’t understand why every one is always talking about what a great receiver Barks is. Again, I just don’t see it in the games. Seems like there are at least a few better RB1s last season and this season: AK, beaver tail Henry, peak Zeke (not this year’s turn over Zeke though), Boston Scott (the version that plays against the Giants), Davlin Cook, Chubb, I break chicks faces Mixon, all better than Barks in terms of function and production.

Barks is flashy and physically amazing. But I just don’t think he is cut out for the NFL grind and punish. Hope I’m wrong.

In comment 15057817 trueblueinpw said:

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I actually don’t think Barks is a great NFL RB. He’s just not physical enough and this shows in pass pro and dancing in the hole and running out of bounds. Oddly enough, even though he seems to be averse to contact he also has a penchant now for injury. He’s a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Yes. But he has a lot of plays and series and even games where he simply isn’t a factor. I also don’t understand why every one is always talking about what a great receiver Barks is. Again, I just don’t see it in the games. Seems like there are at least a few better RB1s last season and this season: AK, beaver tail Henry, peak Zeke (not this year’s turn over Zeke though), Boston Scott (the version that plays against the Giants), Davlin Cook, Chubb, I break chicks faces Mixon, all better than Barks in terms of function and production. Barks is flashy and physically amazing. But I just don’t think he is cut out for the NFL grind and punish. Hope I’m wrong.

If you don't think Barkley is a better receiver than Henry, Zeke, Cook, Mixon and especially Chubb I don't think anyone should take your opinion seriously. Guys like Scott, Kamara, and CMC can go run routes in the pass game, not just go catch screens. And when you have all in 1 guys like CMC, Barkley, and to a lesser extent Kamara you keep the defense guessing any time they are out there. Marshall Faulk wasn't a physical back and neither was Sanders and they are both heading are in the Hall, and deservedly so. There's more than one way to skin a cat.

You clearly just don't like him because he doesn't run people over, or rarely at least. That's all well and great, but they are also the guys that tend to last in the NFL. In fact I though Barkley's style was part of the reason you can justify him as a pick, I think he looks good throughout a second contract. Injuries tend to happen on two types of teams, older ones and bad ones. When your offensive line is controlling things up front, you tend to get hit by less guys, reducing injury risk. It's entirely possible that Saquon's knee weakened by the billion times he'd get tackled by 4 people in the backfield.

There are two backs in the league that are going to beat everyone 1v1 almost every time, Kamara and Barkley. The other guys fight for yards because they don't have the agility to shake guys. More punishing runners are going to do better behind crap offensive lines, but who cares? If you have a crap offensive line you are at best a mediocre football team either way. Put Saquon behind that 2017 Cowboys line and he breaks the rushing record. Zeke never even got touched to the second level on the majority of his carries.

vs reason and then use emotion (I don't like non-physical RBs) as a talking point for your side of things as well.

Didn’t say Henry or any of the other RB1s I listed were better route runners or pass catchers. (Though some certainly are both). My point is that many people claim Barkley is some kind of other worldly back when in fact there are more than a few guys ahead of him in terms of production. And often people talk about what a great pass threat Barkley is but again, I don’t see it on the field.

And why do you say Zeke can’t catch the football as well as Barks? Zeke’s a terrific pass catcher and route runner. The Pokes haven’t ever featured him in the pass game but that doesn’t mean he can’t do it. But again, on production, I don’t see a big diff between Zeke and Barks in the passing game.

I don’t think it’s emotional to say Barks isn’t a contact runner or physical back. It might be somewhat subjective but I also think it’s fairly well agreed that Barks isn’t a physically punishing runner.

In comment 15057856 trueblueinpw said:

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Didn’t say Henry or any of the other RB1s I listed were better route runners or pass catchers. (Though some certainly are both). My point is that many people claim Barkley is some kind of other worldly back when in fact there are more than a few guys ahead of him in terms of production. And often people talk about what a great pass threat Barkley is but again, I don’t see it on the field. And why do you say Zeke can’t catch the football as well as Barks? Zeke’s a terrific pass catcher and route runner. The Pokes haven’t ever featured him in the pass game but that doesn’t mean he can’t do it. But again, on production, I don’t see a big diff between Zeke and Barks in the passing game. I don’t think it’s emotional to say Barks isn’t a contact runner or physical back. It might be somewhat subjective but I also think it’s fairly well agreed that Barks isn’t a physically punishing runner.

You use the word production, stats are as much a team effort as they are individual in football. How do you know Zeke is a tremendous route runner! He's never done it any level. He's done in his damage in the pass game running screens because the Boys offensive line was so good and he's a talent it would force teams into man and sending extra guys, which opens that up.

Zeke is averaging 3.9 yards a carry. Do you think you see anything different on the football field from him, fumbles aside. Of course not. He's a 25 year old with a very clean injury history. He's in the middle of his prime. The difference is the line. The thing is we have seen Barkley run behind similar circumstances is whole career and he's averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He's a special back, that needs to stay healthy. That's really the crux of the matter and it's asinine to say his stats won't get better with the offensive line blocking competently now. They aren't even great! Just competent.

Outside some catastrophic injuries on the OL (because we finally have some depth now as well) or an injury riddled season you can book him for over 5ypc. In fact I'll bet you anything you want on that happening. Two years removed I almost expect a historic season from him.

we are watching here, but it's pretty evident in my eyes he's lost his burst and at least half a step off his speed. Just look at this longest carry from scrimmage the last few years - 41,33, and now this year 24. So you can't blame it on the OL injuries.

He looks like a RB that's either (1) hit his ceiling at the five year mark of his career and/or (2) he just isn't as physically tight as he was once he entered the league. In other words, I think the big contract softened him up once the ink dried on the contract...

And I actually empathize with these backs like Elliott. They handle a tremendous number of carries and they run to contact. So they have a short shelf life and basically get once crack at making a mint.

Even if Zeke isn't a terrific route runner he's more than serviceable in the passing game. And by the way, defenses have their hands full with Zeke as a running back. And he can pass block. And even if Zeke isn't a terrific route runner, he's put up plenty of production in the passing game "just running screens".

My initial point stands - there are plenty of RB1s in the NFL with better production than SB.

But you are correct about what may be - Saquon has a LOT of potential. In two years he MIGHT be amazing! And every time he touches the ball he COULD go ALL the WAY!

(But he usually doesn't).