Based on a 180M 2021 salary cap, teams will lose 960M in estimated spending power (and players ostensibly in wages). Jason at OTC had a great breakdown earlier in the year on why some of the teams on paper (like the Eagles) look in a dire positions but have lots of levers to pull to get under the cap. What is unavoidable is lots of players will be cut this year and prices should also be driven down.
The Giants should go into next season with about 14.5M in real spending power against a 180M cap (187,500,000 including rollover money). That's right in the middle of the pack.
187,500,000
- 162733189 Top 51 (really top 42 and assuming Gano is ~2M)
- 3,200,000 Dead Money
- 7,000,000 Draft Pool (assuming the top 2 picks are top 51)
14,566,811
Notable UFAs: Williams, Ryan, Fackrell, Tomlinson, Gallman, Fleming
Lesser UFAS: Freeman, Lewis, Johnson, Ebner
A few things to keep in mind:
* The NFLPLA/League agreed to a 175M floor, so that could be your cap
* There hasn't been an agreement on moving the franchise tenders -- although the formula number for a 1st time tag will get lowered as it includes a multiplier based on the current year cap
* This won't apply to Williams, as the higher number will be 120% of his salary (19.3M)
* Cutting Tate, Zeitler, and Solder would move the cap number up 24M to 38.8M
They will gain another 5-6 mil in carryover. Tate is gone which immediately saves the Giants 6 mil. Solder will be cut. If it's a post-June 1st move, it saves the Giants $10mil. Mayo and Core (coming off an injury)combine for another 4.3 mil.
So, after all of that the Giants are at $35mil in cap space.
Where it gets tricky- Zeitler. Solid player but he'll be 31 next year and making $14mil. The Giants can cut bait and save another $12mil to get up to $47mil. Let's say they do it for the sake of this activity.
So at $47mil in cap space, the Giants have plenty of flexibility. They can restructure deals (convert Bradberry/Martinez 2021 salary into signing bonuses)or they can backload deals for free agents and re-signings to account for the lowered cap.
All that said, I think they should easily be able to bring back Williams and Tomlinson while still signing a #1 WR like Robinson or Golladay.
Then, focus on defense in the first 2 rounds of the draft (ER, CB)
The good news Martinez Bradberry and others could be bonused out lowering their cap numbers. If you want to go that route.
More good news is that the Eagles are in bad shape cap wise and will likely lose some of there players. Dallas still has Dak soap opera to deal with.
Get a #1 WRs, a corner and a monster edge.....that hopefully shakes loose
Get a #1 WRs, a corner and a monster edge.....that hopefully shakes loose
In what world are we signing those in FA. Draft sure, but insinuating that you are talking about FA because of the shake loose comment. We might have money to sign one first tier guy, maybe two second tier guys tops. We certainly won’t have enough to sign a top tier edge though unless we skimp everywhere else which is not the way to approach FA. . I’d be totally against signing a top tier player edge in FA dollars as I believe they are a bit overvalued at the moment.
They will gain another 5-6 mil in carryover. Tate is gone which immediately saves the Giants 6 mil. Solder will be cut. If it's a post-June 1st move, it saves the Giants $10mil. Mayo and Core (coming off an injury)combine for another 4.3 mil.
So, after all of that the Giants are at $35mil in cap space.
Where it gets tricky- Zeitler. Solid player but he'll be 31 next year and making $14mil. The Giants can cut bait and save another $12mil to get up to $47mil. Let's say they do it for the sake of this activity.
So at $47mil in cap space, the Giants have plenty of flexibility. They can restructure deals (convert Bradberry/Martinez 2021 salary into signing bonuses)or they can backload deals for free agents and re-signings to account for the lowered cap.
All that said, I think they should easily be able to bring back Williams and Tomlinson while still signing a #1 WR like Robinson or Golladay.
Then, focus on defense in the first 2 rounds of the draft (ER, CB)
Great outlook, and understanding of the Cap!!!! I've seen those same projections as well. I agree with you on everything except paying a WR1 big money over a Edge rusher in a deep class FA class. Bradberry locked Robinson down like he was 8th grader playing Varsity. Golladay I'm not sure is a true WR1. Both players will want OBJ money. I'd rather spend that on either ( Shaq Barrett, Yannick, Von Miller, Dupree, or Judon.) Over all if we add any impact player at Edge, WR, or CB2 will make us a playoff contender next year as well. If we add all three we can compete with the best in the NFC.
If we can create around 30-47 million in cap space, and pre use our estimated 120 million in cap space in 2022. Maximizing a rookie QB contract we can build something special with the fighting Judges Giants.
1. Resign DT 8 million per, Leo 12 million per (cap hit), Logan 5 million per. total 25 million + 7 million for draft = 32 million used. Left with 13 million of 45 million created.
2. Sign Shaq Barrett with 8 million base cap hit, on a 4 year deal. Big cap hit in 2022.
3. Sign Kevin King CB to 6 million cap hit in 2021, bigger hit in 2022.
3. Draft Micah Parson 1st round (even with we have to move up a few spots.) This will be our Gold Jacket Player on Defense.
4. Move back into 1st round with our second and 4th to draft a WR.
Solder $6
Tate $6
Mayo $2.3
Toilolo $3
That's about $17 mill I am sure will be gone
***Zeitler $12 mill - if they think they could find a decent guard in FA it may save them $7 to $8 mill overall.
So I could see $29 mill freed up on top of the #17 mill in surviving cap space.
If things break right, they hit in FA on an impact receiver and Draft some Pass Rush..... I don't think they should hand the OLine over to an entire group of SOMEDAY Players.
So age, in his case is nary a factor. His physical state, could be, again, TBD.
Hopefully, we retain him him..
I want Williams and Tomlinson back, key parts of our young DL corps..
I know where BBI stands as there has been a "Pay the Man" thread started on this about every week or so for months.
Almost time to ante up.
Right now, the roster needs Ryan more than Tomlinson. It needs a WR upgrade more than it needs Tate. Zeitler is becoming awfully pricey for a roster still full of holes and already shorthanded in terms of 2021 draft picks.
Under most circumstances I think NYG would retain Solder, but I think he might have to go in order to improve the roster from the outside.
- The rookie scale is pegged to the cap so ‘21 picks are going to get far less than ‘20 picks
- The tenders are pegged to the cap so that number will be way less
- Guys on a potential 2nd tender are all of a sudden dramatically expensive — take Leonard Williams, his ‘20 tender number is based on a formula including a 198M cap. If he gets tagged again he’ll make 120% of his figure from last year’s scenario. A tackle tagged for the fire time this year will actually go down.
And the consequence of that is it possibly results in questionable decisions being made to guys he is tied to including Leonard Williams, Kevin Zietler, and Saquon Barkley. Maybe even Nate Solder.
Be careful what you ask for. :-)
They will gain another 5-6 mil in carryover. Tate is gone which immediately saves the Giants 6 mil. Solder will be cut. If it's a post-June 1st move, it saves the Giants $10mil. Mayo and Core (coming off an injury)combine for another 4.3 mil.
So, after all of that the Giants are at $35mil in cap space.
Where it gets tricky- Zeitler. Solid player but he'll be 31 next year and making $14mil. The Giants can cut bait and save another $12mil to get up to $47mil. Let's say they do it for the sake of this activity.
So at $47mil in cap space, the Giants have plenty of flexibility. They can restructure deals (convert Bradberry/Martinez 2021 salary into signing bonuses)or they can backload deals for free agents and re-signings to account for the lowered cap.
All that said, I think they should easily be able to bring back Williams and Tomlinson while still signing a #1 WR like Robinson or Golladay.
Then, focus on defense in the first 2 rounds of the draft (ER, CB)
This is how I see things going as well. If you made a list of the best available players Leonard Williams is going to be very high on it and well worth a big chunk of the approximate $47m. Same with Tomlinson.
If by some miracle someone like Dupree hits UFA, perhaps he becomes the top priority, but I very much doubt he hits the open market - Pitt would be much wiser to tag and trade him.
1 thing I wouldn't be shocked by is Solder taking a pay cut vs. getting cut. I don't think he's going to want to uproot his family for whatever meager 1 year offer he will command. I'd imagine it'd be preferable for him to remain here as swing tackle vs. competing for a spot elsewhere. That basically replaces Flemming's original intention (3rd T) for free.
I don’t think they sniff the room to actually pay the tender on Dupree, and if it’s a bluff no one is trading much for him. Maybe a 4th/5th.
Right now, the roster needs Ryan more than Tomlinson. It needs a WR upgrade more than it needs Tate. Zeitler is becoming awfully pricey for a roster still full of holes and already shorthanded in terms of 2021 draft picks.
Under most circumstances I think NYG would retain Solder, but I think he might have to go in order to improve the roster from the outside.
I'd rather have the functioning 30 year old guard that I see than the Battered and declining 35 year old tackle that I don;t see
And the consequence of that is it possibly results in questionable decisions being made to guys he is tied to including Leonard Williams, Kevin Zietler, and Saquon Barkley. Maybe even Nate Solder.
Be careful what you ask for. :-)
I’ll take winning the division please, that means something is working. Don’t care if the division sucks.
Especially if getting there means beating the feckless Bengals and Cowboys.
Id sign up for that.
Link - ( New Window )
If the Giants fall ass backwards into the playoffs at 5-11 with 5 wins against exclusively 10+ loss teams, I’d argue that’s not an indication of things going right.
Now if the Giants rip off 4 wins and beat a good team in there, no we’re talking.
Otherwise only upside side would be the experience of playing meaningful games. Which personally I don’t think outweigh the top 10 pick. A top 10 pick is currency NFL team covet for good reason.
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Right now OTC has them at 9.6 mil in space after the Gano deal.
They will gain another 5-6 mil in carryover. Tate is gone which immediately saves the Giants 6 mil. Solder will be cut. If it's a post-June 1st move, it saves the Giants $10mil. Mayo and Core (coming off an injury)combine for another 4.3 mil.
So, after all of that the Giants are at $35mil in cap space.
Where it gets tricky- Zeitler. Solid player but he'll be 31 next year and making $14mil. The Giants can cut bait and save another $12mil to get up to $47mil. Let's say they do it for the sake of this activity.
So at $47mil in cap space, the Giants have plenty of flexibility. They can restructure deals (convert Bradberry/Martinez 2021 salary into signing bonuses)or they can backload deals for free agents and re-signings to account for the lowered cap.
All that said, I think they should easily be able to bring back Williams and Tomlinson while still signing a #1 WR like Robinson or Golladay.
Then, focus on defense in the first 2 rounds of the draft (ER, CB)
This is how I see things going as well. If you made a list of the best available players Leonard Williams is going to be very high on it and well worth a big chunk of the approximate $47m. Same with Tomlinson.
If by some miracle someone like Dupree hits UFA, perhaps he becomes the top priority, but I very much doubt he hits the open market - Pitt would be much wiser to tag and trade him.
1 thing I wouldn't be shocked by is Solder taking a pay cut vs. getting cut. I don't think he's going to want to uproot his family for whatever meager 1 year offer he will command. I'd imagine it'd be preferable for him to remain here as swing tackle vs. competing for a spot elsewhere. That basically replaces Flemming's original intention (3rd T) for free.
I think there is a very good chance that Dupree hits FA given the Steelers cap situation. It's almost impossible to envision a way where they can create enough cap space to pay a guy like Dupree what he will command.
Dupree would be a great signing at a much needed position. They could look to sign him and only keep one of LW/Dalvin.
If that were the case, I'd see them opting for LW. Then they'd move Lawrence to Tomlinsons current role at NT and insert BJ Hill in the lineup while likely looking to add a depth guy in the draft.
I don't think anyone is trading higher than a 4th for the rights for Dupree, and at that rate the Steelers are better off getting a comp pick.
My guess is Dupree is a Colt the moment the tampering period begins.
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you can blow a top 10 pick, and miss on players. Nothing is guaranteed with the draft.
If the Giants fall ass backwards into the playoffs at 5-11 with 5 wins against exclusively 10+ loss teams, I’d argue that’s not an indication of things going right.
Now if the Giants rip off 4 wins and beat a good team in there, no we’re talking.
Otherwise only upside side would be the experience of playing meaningful games. Which personally I don’t think outweigh the top 10 pick. A top 10 pick is currency NFL team covet for good reason.
You can argue it but I personally don’t care about how we get in. What happens if we win a game? Don’t want that either just because we started 1-7?
For years we keep hearing about how we need to tank to get a better pick. Well, it’s hasn’t really worked for whatever reason. We finally have a HC that looks like he knows what he’s doing and has the players playing hard and well despite the talent gap.
Fuck a top 10 pick. A playoff berth sets the table for the future, more losing is just that. You are severely minimizing the upside of experience and building a strong culture.
Do you think Judge would be cool letting a playoff birth slip away for a draft pick? Do you as a fan want him to be ok with it?
Especially if getting there means beating the feckless Bengals and Cowboys.
Nah, I would take winning the division.
But if ensured DG gets extended...ehhh, I could side with you.
Rooting for us not to win the division because of our GM is insane to me.
Big Ben has a 41m cap # they can reduce by at least 20m by cutting him. Cutting Joe Haden, Vance McDonald, and Eric Ebron saves them another 20m. Obviously what they do at QB is the biggest question of their offseason but there is no problem in football not made easier by having more high draft picks.
So I think you can take it to the bank they will get themselves $20m under, tag+trade Dupree, and then proceed with the rest of their offseason with extra picks in tow.
If the Giants fall backwards into a playoff spot without having played that well and haven't really improved much, I don't think it proves anything is going in the right direction.
If the Giants can add a player with the impact of Daniel Jones or Saquon Barkley, at the expense of sneaking into the playoffs through the basement, I'd take that every day.
How did that playoff game in 2016 workout for the young guys on that team? There's no intrinsic value in a playoff appearance that outweighs building with more talent.
Big Ben has a 41m cap # they can reduce by at least 20m by cutting him. Cutting Joe Haden, Vance McDonald, and Eric Ebron saves them another 20m. Obviously what they do at QB is the biggest question of their offseason but there is no problem in football not made easier by having more high draft picks.
So I think you can take it to the bank they will get themselves $20m under, tag+trade Dupree, and then proceed with the rest of their offseason with extra picks in tow.
The Steelers may very well extend Roethlisberger and get that number way down, but there is now way in hell they cut him. They are dead in the middle of a championship window and he might be the league MVP.
The Steelers have to get themselves in a position a trade partner believes they will actually keep him to get much in return.
Judge didn’t sign up for 1 year, he signed up for long term success. And he’d be the first person to tell you winning is earned and learned it isn’t achieved by adding 1 player. I couldn’t disagree with you more on this.
That’s it for me on this one.
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and eventually to extend Watt. So if their 2021 draft picks are going to require them to get $7-10m under the cap, doesn't it behoove them to cut just a little bit more so they can tag + trade Dupree? It will make extending Watt that much easier too.
Big Ben has a 41m cap # they can reduce by at least 20m by cutting him. Cutting Joe Haden, Vance McDonald, and Eric Ebron saves them another 20m. Obviously what they do at QB is the biggest question of their offseason but there is no problem in football not made easier by having more high draft picks.
So I think you can take it to the bank they will get themselves $20m under, tag+trade Dupree, and then proceed with the rest of their offseason with extra picks in tow.
The Steelers may very well extend Roethlisberger and get that number way down, but there is now way in hell they cut him. They are dead in the middle of a championship window and he might be the league MVP.
The Steelers have to get themselves in a position a trade partner believes they will actually keep him to get much in return.
They may extend or he may retire. None of us know what he will do - all we know is that he is unlikely to count for 40m on their cap.
It is wishful thinking to believe they are just going to forgo some doable alternatives to let the best edge rusher in years hit the open market when they can save the exact same amount of money and trade him.
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If 5-11 wins the division and the Giants lose 14 draft slots, that would suck.
Especially if getting there means beating the feckless Bengals and Cowboys.
Nah, I would take winning the division.
But if ensured DG gets extended...ehhh, I could side with you.
If the Giants win the division on 5 wins against the Skins twice, Eagles, Cowboys, and Bengals -- Mara ass slapping the crew over the progress at the post-season press conference will be comic gold. He'll need to send for one of those "Mission Accomplished" banners.
But play it out realistically.
Scenario 1: the Steelers actually clear enough space to absorb the tender amount (which includes some tough cuts and letting basically all of their UFAs walk) -- are they actually letting Dupree go?
Scenario 2: the Steelers tag him, but are still over the cap and everyone knows at some point they will rescind it and he'll be an UFA ala Josh Norman. Is a team going to trade much for his rights? Especially if it's not a destination he's eager to sign?
scenario 2 - sure teams can wait, hope the steelers get desperate (like Jax and Ngakoue last year). But why would they expect things to work out better than that did? There is no reason to think the Steelers would do worse than the Jags did since Dupree is coming off a far better season than Ngakoue's best and unlike Ngakoue I doubt Dupree is desperately trying to get out of Pittsburgh. The Josh Norman situation was an outlier. On the other hand pass rushers getting dealt for high picks happens every year - Frank Clark, Dee Ford, Deforest Buckner, and the aforementioned Ngakoue were all dealt in just the last few offseasons.
Just like those players there will be a team willing to deal for Dupree's rights and Pittsburgh won't have to make too many hard cuts to create enough room to tag him and trade him quickly enough that they can then use that room to do whatever else they want to do after securing an extra pick(s).
Put the shoe on the other foot and if we were fans of the Steelers it would be beyond obvious that we'd want the team to go to significant lengths to ensure that Dupree doesn't walk for nothing. Whether that meant tagging him for 1 more run or trading him for a good return.
Dupree is going to be a 28-year-old going into his 7th NFL season.
Buckner was a completely different case, he was going into his 5th year option. Clarke was also going into his 5th year as UFA, so was Ford. And Ford had a ridiculous season in 2018 before he was traded for a 2nd round pick.
Bottom line I agree with your assessment from a fan’s view, in that if the Steelers make the room to absorb the tender, they’ll just keep him.
I can’t think of too many because I think most teams retain those players. I think edge and WR are what we draft.
I do think CB free agents hold up well.
I would like to resign Williams and Logan Ryan. I like Fackrell and like those type of free agent signings—role players that are not big money.
The biggest jump this team can make next year is with a strong draft.
I can’t think of too many because I think most teams retain those players. I think edge and WR are what we draft.
I do think CB free agents hold up well.
I would like to resign Williams and Logan Ryan. I like Fackrell and like those type of free agent signings—role players that are not big money.
The biggest jump this team can make next year is with a strong draft.
Surprisingly I'd say the best recent outcome was Olivier Vernon. He was one of the best players on a defense led the team to 11 wins. Before that Mario Williams going Houston --> Buffalo was a good one too - but part of that was found a way to stay off IR.
The Smiths on GB were also good signings - though it's notable that both had career years their first year GB, and both have come back down to Earth in year 2.
That history more than anything is what curtails the notion that established 10-15 sack edge rushers without injury risks change teams via FA. It just hasn't happened. Those guys have enough value to get tagged + traded. And Dupree has looked like an absolute monster this year - not just a guy putting up numbers on a good defense. Dee Ford was dealt at the same age off a very similar season for a 2nd round pick, that would seem like the floor for Dupree.
13 sacks | 54 pressures | 7 FF | 29 Hits | 13 TFLS
Dupree is having a really nice year, but he'd have to be out of this world the next six weeks to get in the same band.
8 sacks | 26 pressures | 2 FF | 15 Hits | 6 TFLs
The league and team situations are completely different as well this year.
- The Steelers have to fit a 2nd tender of 19M into a 175M cap
- The Steelers have to free up 40M just to fit the tender, never mind add zero dollars and not even considering the draft
If the Steelers apply the tag, he signs, and they haven't created the space -- they have no leverage and teams will know he likely must be traded, or the Steeler's offseason is held hostage.
If the Steelers make the hard cuts to create the space and make no other major moves, I 'd bet they just keep him to make another run. Maybe in that scenario a team that's missed out on Judon/Yannick and still has powder to burn ponies up.