I couldn't be more disappointed in the Jones injury. The biggest story going into this week should have been Jones hasn't turned the ball over in three consecutive games. That was a monumental change in the whole team dynamic that I think hasn't been talked about enough.
Did anyone else feel like Jones really started to come into his own these last few weeks in a way that says, this guy might be the franchise guy? Or am I crazy?
To me the turnovers and losses were major issues, but he really turned it around in an unprecedented way these last few weeks...
And that's not even including being the best QB in the playoffs.
And that's not even including being the best QB in the playoffs.
Even then throughout his career he wasn't an elite QB. So hoping Jones is elite is a stretch. I hope so too and think it's possible, but that's an unfair expectation.
Jones is playing like a young quarterback, with mediocre skill players, and an emerging but still pretty shitty pass protecting line.
That’s why the notion of him completing an unprecedented turning of the corner is fucking hilarious.
Jones is playing like a young quarterback, with mediocre skill players, and an emerging but still pretty shitty pass protecting line.
That’s why the notion of him completing an unprecedented turning of the corner is fucking hilarious.
That’s what most of us have been saying for weeks/months.
Josh Allen has made a huge leap as a passer in his third year. He got by in years 1 and 2 based on his running ability - and he was more productive in that area than Jones has been. I agree with you...Jones's first two years are kind of comparable to Allen's first two. Allen was a poor passer who made a rare leap...is Jones going to do the same?
As for YPA...I'm not trying to predict anything with that stat. I'm trying to assess the quality of Jones's performance.
He's a guy with a 6.5 YPA when the league average is 7.3, and the elite passers are over 8. That's what Jones is.
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You mentioned Josh Allen. Compare his numbers in his first 23 starts with Jones... there’s not a whole lot of difference outside of TD runs, which were a result of the Bills’ offense. And can we please stop with the YPA nonsense. It has zero predictive value when it comes to young QBs.
Josh Allen has made a huge leap as a passer in his third year. He got by in years 1 and 2 based on his running ability - and he was more productive in that area than Jones has been. I agree with you...Jones's first two years are kind of comparable to Allen's first two. Allen was a poor passer who made a rare leap...is Jones going to do the same?
As for YPA...I'm not trying to predict anything with that stat. I'm trying to assess the quality of Jones's performance.
He's a guy with a 6.5 YPA when the league average is 7.3, and the elite passers are over 8. That's what Jones is.
nope.. you're wrong. Jones is suddenly a perennial top-10 QB because he had a good game against the Bengals. I'm kidding of course. You are 100% correct. Jones' overall stats are abysmal. Eventually he will have to put up elite stats to be considered elite. What a concept.
I raised this point because everyone basically plays good/great versus subpar teams. BFD.
Yet we applaud Jones for a three game stretch against subpar teams where he's produced a total of one TD pass. Read this slowly - one TD pass. And somehow this is some strong indication that Jones has turned this all important "corner". Unbelievable.
Look, if we are subtly saying that Jones just needs to meet game manager/game manager plus to confirm his high draft slot, then I have sorely misjudged where a fan's expectations should be for a QB chosen with the 6th pick.
This is true. But if you don't have an elite guy on a massive contract, you can skin the cat the other way by keeping the position cheap. Where you get in to trouble is paying non-elite guys like they're elite.
Take this season as an example. If Jones is getting paid Wentz money are we as likely to sign Martinez, Bradberry, and Ryan? Extrapolate that question over four or five years and you begin to see the impact of overpaying a QB.
Make Jones earn it. If he does (like Mahomes and Watson clearly have in recent years), then great...pay him. If not, move on and continue to use the cap to build up the rest of the roster. That's how you stay fluid and adaptable year to year.
Once you pay a Wentz, Stafford, Cousins, Garoppolo, etc...you are bound to that guy. Every decision has to be made around him, and if he doesn't work out...
It is demonstrably easier to win with an elite QB than with a non-elite QB. Look who wins championships, mostly it is elite QBs. Would you rather be in the category of 8 teams with elite QBs who challenge every single year or would you rather be a team in a group of 26 teams and maybe one or two of you gets a trophy every ten years.
Seeking truth and speaking truth is not rooting for the Giants to suck.
Here's my advice for you - get your expectations up. This is the 6th pick in the draft with almost a full year under his belt from his rookie season.
Not a fourth round, project draft choice...
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with how angry they get that people are finding positives in his game. You guys aren't Giants fans you're fans of your own opinions.
Here's my advice for you - get your expectations up. This is the 6th pick in the draft with almost a full year under his belt from his rookie season.
Not a fourth round, project draft choice...
QBs are not guaranteed to be elite at any pick. He's neither great, no terrible, which is what you get at #6 quite often. As such for a second year player he's not far from my expectations. Maybe in a year or 2 it won't cut it. It wasn't cutting it earlier in the season but he's been trending in the right direction.
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It is demonstrably easier to win with an elite QB than with a non-elite QB. Look who wins championships, mostly it is elite QBs. Would you rather be in the category of 8 teams with elite QBs who challenge every single year or would you rather be a team in a group of 26 teams and maybe one or two of you gets a trophy every ten years.
This is a misleading statement because most of those championships over the past 20 years were won by QB’s of a soon to be bygone era. All those dudes are on the way out. Who’s to say there will be another crop like them? I see Mahoney has a shot at it, but even he was a few playcalls of Kyle Shanahan going in a shell of being an also ran. Not to mention, of the past 20 years 12 superbowls were won by 4 guys. Everybody else got 1 each. Kind of skews the stat a little considering there aren’t many 2 or more time Super Bowl winning qbs in NFL history.
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Zeke — I think you’ve hit the nail on the head.
Jones is playing like a young quarterback, with mediocre skill players, and an emerging but still pretty shitty pass protecting line.
That’s why the notion of him completing an unprecedented turning of the corner is fucking hilarious.
That’s what most of us have been saying for weeks/months.
That’s what most of are saying today.
I am a Giant fan, and I want them to start winning. If the players they currently have prevent them from winning I am not going to wish those players to become something they aren't.
Being a fan of the team isn't going to impact how I view their performance. I want Jones to kick ass and I root for him on Sunday...but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.
There are two worlds when it comes to the Giants: what we want, and what is. It's important to keep those two worlds separate.
Jones being young, the weapons sucking, the line sucking in protection, and the notion anything’s resembled an unprecedented turnaround isn’t anything I’ve had to come around. It’s been obvious for weeks.
Turnovers and observations of his time in pocket are enough evidence of concern without needing to add more questionable data into the mix of argumentation. imo.
His recent run of no turnovers and better play is across 15% of his games played so easily within a band of good (and some luck on some throws) play and not remotely evidence that any statistically valid corner has been turned or earned.
Nor is a top five QB needed to win a SB...most who win a SB are not in fact top five QBs over time.
But its really rare to be below a top 12 NFL QB and win a SB.
One last item...there is nothing about Eli Mannings career or performance that gives solid ground for comparison to anyone else. I swear he had the highest delta between good and bad play from game to game and play to play offset by remarkable durability. Any given season he gave tape that showed elite NFL QB and below average NFL Qb. They all do but he sat 40% of the time 40% different from his high to low.
Great Giant. Easy to root for. Class over class. Not a good comparison for the next player. Which Eli are you comparing to?
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In comment 15063425 Britt in VA said:
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improve. That goes for Jones and the whole team. You are seeing it with your own eyes right now.
We now have what looks to be a young, offensive line that can hold blocks. Now in this draft we need to get a big, physical WR that can go up and get the 50/50 balls, and gets consistent separation. If we can find a true TE while we're at it, all the better.
It's a symbiotic relationship. As the team improves, Jones will improve, and the points/passing TD's will come. It's not like he doesn't have the ability to put it on a rope and dime like he did to Golden Tate in the 4th QTR against Tampa with the game on the line. There was nothing lolipop about that throw. Link - ( New Window )
In this case Britt, I couldn't agree more.
The OL has a symbiotic relationship with both QB play, and RB play. Improve the OL and you improve both of the others as well. Been saying this for years.
And I agree the line was atrocious. They have improved to middle of the pack. And that is huge.
Why it took Gettleman 3 years before making a significant investment in the OL I will never know. I guess it wasn't like he needed to replace 100% of the OL when he came in... Oh wait...
He had replaced 100% of the O-line by the halfway point of the first season. Are you implying he should have just done what he did this draft as if it’s easy to hit on three starting offensive linemen as if it’s easy to replace five players with 100% accuracy? Because damn, we should have done that in 2012.
2018 was the deepest draft for OL in over a decade. I am implying he should have done what he did this year back in '18... I would have liked to have seen 3 premium picks on OL in '18. He used 2 in '20, seems to have gotten lucky with a 3rd day pick this time...
I have been saying for years, the ONLY way to build a competent OL in the current NFL is through the draft. Teams don't let competent OL walk. They are too rare and valuable these days.
Jones has done some things well and other things not so well. TBD at this point, and no one should be sold either way. The organization should not be married to him if he doesn’t show more by the end of his rookie deal.
Turnovers and observations of his time in pocket are enough evidence of concern without needing to add more questionable data into the mix of argumentation. imo.
His recent run of no turnovers and better play is across 15% of his games played so easily within a band of good (and some luck on some throws) play and not remotely evidence that any statistically valid corner has been turned or earned.
Nor is a top five QB needed to win a SB...most who win a SB are not in fact top five QBs over time.
But its really rare to be below a top 12 NFL QB and win a SB.
One last item...there is nothing about Eli Mannings career or performance that gives solid ground for comparison to anyone else. I swear he had the highest delta between good and bad play from game to game and play to play offset by remarkable durability. Any given season he gave tape that showed elite NFL QB and below average NFL Qb. They all do but he sat 40% of the time 40% different from his high to low.
Great Giant. Easy to root for. Class over class. Not a good comparison for the next player. Which Eli are you comparing to?
Thanks Bill2. You must ended the thread and hopefully (not holding my breath) any more comparisons to Eli
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In comment 15063713 Britt in VA said:
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It is demonstrably easier to win with an elite QB than with a non-elite QB. Look who wins championships, mostly it is elite QBs. Would you rather be in the category of 8 teams with elite QBs who challenge every single year or would you rather be a team in a group of 26 teams and maybe one or two of you gets a trophy every ten years.
This is a misleading statement because most of those championships over the past 20 years were won by QB’s of a soon to be bygone era. All those dudes are on the way out. Who’s to say there will be another crop like them? I see Mahoney has a shot at it, but even he was a few playcalls of Kyle Shanahan going in a shell of being an also ran. Not to mention, of the past 20 years 12 superbowls were won by 4 guys. Everybody else got 1 each. Kind of skews the stat a little considering there aren’t many 2 or more time Super Bowl winning qbs in NFL history.
Great point Britt about the skewing of stats by Brady winning 6 SB's .
But I think if you keep digging in on Jones like this, you're gonna paint yourself in a corner. Just an observation..
2019 was a different staff. Different expectations and Jones wasn't under the same pressure he is under now. Not to diminish NFL games but 2019 saw games that flowed in a much different manner than the games have gone this year for Jones. Also, the league didn't know about Jones yet. The Giants were not playing meaningful games once November rolled around and most of the time the games were over by the time the 4th quarter rolled around.
This has for all intents been the first real year for Jones, and I don't mean to just ignore what he did in year 1, but the Tampa comeback didn't matter anymore when Jones was struggling this year did it?
Jones has been fine the last 3 weeks and there's plenty of real data and anecdotal evidence to support the belief that Jones has in fact turned a corner.
Why the fuck we are sitting here discussing his contract in 2-3 more years I will never know. Some of you live to worry about shit.
Every QB flashes in year one and if they don't they are toast. Not every QB lasts until year 3. That's the real question here.
Jones is showing he is worthy of starting. Just keep it up.
Really? Mayfield has so much more around him right now it's not even debatable. He's got two pro bowl caliber RBs and has had a solid OL all year long while Jones was getting obliterated early on.
Context matters even if Jones deserved the heat he took through October.
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In comment 15063604 Go Terps said:
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Unless Jones drastically improves the Giants should stay in rookie contracts at QB, because as we've seen above his production is very easily replaced by kids coming out of college - he hasn't established a difficult standard to attain.
I disagree big time there. You think a rookie QB can come in here and total 250-300 total yards every week and throw with the accuracy Jones has displayed virtually all year long?
Jones has been a good QB the last 3 weeks. Make no mistake. And this coming from someone who killed him up until 3 weeks ago. I am not shy about Jones to task but he's been good lately. He was well on his way to 300 + passing yards on Sunday.
You're trying to reinvent the wheel. NFL teams don't operate like that in regards to QB. Just because it's a passing league now doesn't mean good QBs grow on trees. And in this offense under Judge? I don't think this is an easy offense to master.
300 passing yards isn't a big deal in today's game. It feels like it is because the QB play here has been poor for a while, but it isn't.
Good QBs may not grow on trees; but QBs that play at Jones's current level do grow on trees:
23 games
7-16
6.5 YPA
32/21
Good rushing, but lots of fumbles too
His resume to this point is pretty poor. No way around it.
JFC terps you're going to conjure up his seasonal stats and ignore the progression the last 3 weeks? I give up with you. You are moving the goalposts it's like you wake up and just want to argue shit with people. 6 weeks ago you were saying you believed in jones despite him being at rock bottom, literally, you said those very words. Now you're radaring us with this shit. Cmon already.
Also, 300 passing yards a game breaks down to 4800 passing yards in a season. That is most definitely a big deal.
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with how angry they get that people are finding positives in his game. You guys aren't Giants fans you're fans of your own opinions.
Here's my advice for you - get your expectations up. This is the 6th pick in the draft with almost a full year under his belt from his rookie season.
Not a fourth round, project draft choice...
Full year under his belt from a different system with a different staff.
Context people. It's not all black and white.
The rub is the guys with the tools get drafted by the worst teams, and the worst teams typically have bad coaching and management. I feel like Jones + Judge is one of those Goldilocks situations where it's just right.
I don't believe Jones has elite individuals skills (like Murray, Jackson, Mahomes, Rodgers) -- so he won't transcend the limits of his surroundings.
But I do believe he has the requisite skills to be a winner if the surroundings improve. But when you add a B quarterback, D skills players, and D pass protection -- you get the Giants. I frankly blame the management for that.
The rub is the guys with the tools get drafted by the worst teams, and the worst teams typically have bad coaching and management. I feel like Jones + Judge is one of those Goldilocks situations where it's just right.
I don't believe Jones has elite individuals skills (like Murray, Jackson, Mahomes, Rodgers) -- so he won't transcend the limits of his surroundings.
But I do believe he has the requisite skills to be a winner if the surroundings improve. But when you add a B quarterback, D skills players, and D pass protection -- you get the Giants. I frankly blame the management for that.
Absolutely. If the Giants were a well put together team, I think they could do well with Jones at QB. But they aren't, so they don't.
And again, the critical question that should always be in the background is "Should we pay Jones $30M a year for 4-5 years?" Because once we pay him that contract it becomes harder to get A & B level skill players, pass protection, etc.
The time to have the strong team around the QB is right now during Jones's rookie deal. And we don't. That's the nature of Gettleman's failure and why he should be replaced with someone who has a better grasp of resource allocation and timing.
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In comment 15063738 BestFeature said:
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with how angry they get that people are finding positives in his game. You guys aren't Giants fans you're fans of your own opinions.
Here's my advice for you - get your expectations up. This is the 6th pick in the draft with almost a full year under his belt from his rookie season.
Not a fourth round, project draft choice...
Full year under his belt from a different system with a different staff.
Context people. It's not all black and white.
Not seeing the field on a consistent basis is now beccause of a different system? This problem manifested itself in Durham and last year.
I continue to be amazed - probably floored is the better word - how many posters think Jones is just part of the drink and not the straw that should stir it.
Fair point regarding those defenses...they are pretty good.
And you also described DJ well...he is showing "progress" lately off a poor start to the season. I think some takes on here can go a little overboard as to the level he has reached.
I believe that everybody acknowledges that Jones has played better in the last 3 games.
However, it is a combination of a small sample and a poor sample to make any judgements as to whether or not the improvement is a permanent thing. Those ARE crappy teams that the Giants beat. Also 3 games is not enough. We could just easily see him revert to prior form over the next 5 weeks, or maintain this level. If he maintains this level over the course of a season, or at least 12 games, then I think we can say that the new level of performance is likely a permanent improvement.
That said, the improvement has been incremental. We are not seeing a completely different QB. He is still late with throws, he still has trouble making the right reads and finding the open man. 2 things have happened the OL has improved, giving him more time in the pocket and so making his lack of pocket awareness less of a liability, and he isn't getting hit so many times resulting in fewer fumbles. It has also given him more time do read the field and make decisions, again possibly hiding a deficiency in the speed of his decision making. On Jones himself, he seems to have gotten much better about throwing balls away and not holding on and making a stupid play. At least to me, it is unclear just how much of the improved QB play is attributable to Jones and how much to the OL, as well as whether or not the improvement is lasting.
So if you see people taking a measured approach rather than crowning him a top 5 QB and the Giants a SB contender that can play with anybody you understand why. 3 games against crappy is not statistically significant enough to get us there. However, you do see all the bearish posters saying there is improvement, there is hope now. For the longest time the bears were say that as they were constituted at the time, there was no hope. There is always going to be a gap between the bulls and the bears. But you have to recognize the bear have moved in a more optimistic direction lately, but can't expect back flips.
But it's crystal clear Jones needing to make basic strides and the surrounding offense to be much more talented aren't mutually exclusive.
And that's how you average 19.5 points/game and 5.0 yards/play.
Not to take anything away from D.J. - I believe in the kid, and there has been marked improvement in turnovers... partly due to dramatic OL improvement, but much falls on decision making and doing a better job when things fall apart.
I don't care if he's playing crappy teams, those are NOT Pro Bowl receiver's he's throwing to.
I look at the Jets, at Darnold (who I wanted) and their head coach and I'm really happy things worked out the way they did for the Giants.
He's definitely improved. Turned a corner? YUP.
And again, the critical question that should always be in the background is "Should we pay Jones $30M a year for 4-5 years?" Because once we pay him that contract it becomes harder to get A & B level skill players, pass protection, etc.
The time to have the strong team around the QB is right now during Jones's rookie deal. And we don't. That's the nature of Gettleman's failure and why he should be replaced with someone who has a better grasp of resource allocation and timing.
The concept of timing is paramount. Building a winning team isn't an exercise of collecting the best players indiscriminately. It's a purposeful balance of the right cost, age, and talent.
This is why the swing and misses in UFA, trades, and drafts in 18 & 19 are so disappointing. Jones (and even Barkley) could have easily slotted into a much better team and hit the ground running.
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Mayfield is a better QB than Jones right now, and Jones would be a failed pick if that's all he is.
Really? Mayfield has so much more around him right now it's not even debatable. He's got two pro bowl caliber RBs and has had a solid OL all year long while Jones was getting obliterated early on.
Context matters even if Jones deserved the heat he took through October.
Mayfield is still better right now - I'm well aware of the context.
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In comment 15063572 BrettNYG10 said:
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Mayfield is a better QB than Jones right now, and Jones would be a failed pick if that's all he is.
Really? Mayfield has so much more around him right now it's not even debatable. He's got two pro bowl caliber RBs and has had a solid OL all year long while Jones was getting obliterated early on.
Context matters even if Jones deserved the heat he took through October.
Mayfield is still better right now - I'm well aware of the context.
yea I hear you--i just wonder if Baker is doing any better than Jones did during the dark stretch of this season. I think truly great QBs would do more, but I am not sure Baker is elevating his play enough to win those games, but maybe he would have. I don't think he's a bad player by any stretch.
Doesn't even matter anymore. I don't care how bad Jones was, I only care about how good he is now and going forward. People conjuring up stats from this entire season are wasting their time in my view. If this was year 2-3 with Judge ok fine, but it's year 1. We need to look at Jones incrementally this season. Of course we need to see progress, and we are.
My concern with Jones isn't about this year - people want to throw out this year, and that's fine. My concern is we get an average year out of Jones next season (and maybe a 7-9/8-8 record) and people look at that as progress, but I think what we get out of Jones next year is it. Players don't develop linearly. If Jones is an average guy next year, I'm sort of concerned that's all he is going to be and we're caught talking ourselves into an average QB and team and another year goes by where we're rationalizing and not improving.
I don't know what to make of Jones. I'm pretty confident he's not going to be a top five QB, which is fine. But I don't have the conviction others do in him being a quality starter. He's a huge question mark at this stage. I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up as a Pro Bowler at some point, but wouldn't be shocked if he isn't a starter in 2023, either.
My concern with Jones isn't about this year - people want to throw out this year, and that's fine. My concern is we get an average year out of Jones next season (and maybe a 7-9/8-8 record) and people look at that as progress, but I think what we get out of Jones next year is it. Players don't develop linearly. If Jones is an average guy next year, I'm sort of concerned that's all he is going to be and we're caught talking ourselves into an average QB and team and another year goes by where we're rationalizing and not improving.
I don't know what to make of Jones. I'm pretty confident he's not going to be a top five QB, which is fine. But I don't have the conviction others do in him being a quality starter. He's a huge question mark at this stage. I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up as a Pro Bowler at some point, but wouldn't be shocked if he isn't a starter in 2023, either.
I agree. That's why the timing on this injury sucks so much.