Robert Murray
@ByRobertMurray
Mets in active talks with free-agent catcher James McCann, according to league sources. A deal is not yet close, but it is looking increasingly likely he will land a four-year deal.
1:27 PM · Dec 3, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
Does this open the door for BOTH Springer and Bauer? 4 seems too many... thoughts Metsies?
Quote:
In comment 15065639 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
silly concern is blocking Alvarez. Kid is 19 all of 2021, he missed an entire season due to... well no reason happening. He's my favorite prospect in a few years now (in terms of the Mets) but he has a lot of work to do behind the plate (he's a legit C but has work to do) and he's played 42 career games. C's take significantly longer than other positions because of their impact on the entire staff. The list of starting MLB catchers at 21 or younger over the last 30ish years is INSANELY short. Let the kid develop if he's the goods he can segue into the starting C sometime in year 3 of McCann's deal.
Well, they shouldn't be blocking Alvarez because they shouldn't be giving a 30 year old catcher more than a 4 or 5 year contract anyway.
I'm talking more about giving McCann 4 years. I still think it's 1 year too long, but that's about McCann and aging catchers, not about Alvarez being ready in XYZ. Obviously if they signed Realmuto to a 6-7 year contract, Alvarez likely becomes a trade chip. But you don't "hold" spots for teenage a ball prospects. There are injuries, bumps in the road, and again, the list of C's starting for MLB teams at 21 or younger is ridiculously short. Alvarez will play 2021 as a 19 year old, with an entire year of AB's and catching wiped out. The Mets will throw a party if in 2023 Alvarez is close enough that McCann starting over him is a "discussion"
Oh, I understand. I'm just saying it shouldn't be a discussion not only for the fact he is so far away, but because they shouldn't be giving such a long contract to a catcher anyway.
As for Alvarez as a trade chip, I am not a fan at all. Figuring Alvarez is ready for the big leagues at 23, that is 5 years. Not trading one of the best catching prospects in the league just for another catchers 36/37 year old seasons. If Alvarez is ready before 5 years, no reason he can't come into the league as a backup. NL may have DH by then, injuries may work things out, etc.
I know you've mentioned Alvarez being damn near untouchable in the past and I agree with that sentiment. I do agree with you saying that you shouldn't refrain from signing a Realmuto or McCann because of an 18 year old catching prospect. I'm just saying both of those players and the contracts I would sign them to happen to match up nicely with Alvarez's age and when he should be coming up.
Law
23. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, age 31
Odorizzi’s 2020 season was a washout, as he started late after suffering an intercostal muscle strain, was hit by a comebacker in his third start and made one more start four weeks later before leaving that one early with a blister. It was unfortunate for him as he headed into free agency, although he should see some solid interest based on his previous work; in his first two years in Minnesota, 2018 and 2019, he threw 323 1/3 innings of above-average ball, averaging barely over five innings a start. Not one of his pitches is plus, but he has found some success with four-seamers up above the midpoint of the zone. Without a real knockout offering, though, he has to pitch at the top end of his command and control range, which he did in 2019. He’s so athletic and his delivery is so easy that it’s perplexing that he hasn’t done it more often; he almost certainly is what he is at this point, though, and should see one-year offers in the mid-teens.
Point being that 9m AAV is a sensible figure since whoever signs him is doing so to be their starting catcher, but in 3 or 4 years that deal could look pretty middle of the road - possibly even reasonable for someone filling half of a timeshare depending on the other half.
McCann doesn't have the dynamic defensive talent Realmuto has, nor the consistent track record, but if his price tag is as rumored he could allow for another player making $15m to be signed at another position.
Law
23. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, age 31
Odorizzi’s 2020 season was a washout, as he started late after suffering an intercostal muscle strain, was hit by a comebacker in his third start and made one more start four weeks later before leaving that one early with a blister. It was unfortunate for him as he headed into free agency, although he should see some solid interest based on his previous work; in his first two years in Minnesota, 2018 and 2019, he threw 323 1/3 innings of above-average ball, averaging barely over five innings a start. Not one of his pitches is plus, but he has found some success with four-seamers up above the midpoint of the zone. Without a real knockout offering, though, he has to pitch at the top end of his command and control range, which he did in 2019. He’s so athletic and his delivery is so easy that it’s perplexing that he hasn’t done it more often; he almost certainly is what he is at this point, though, and should see one-year offers in the mid-teens.
Affordable depth is key so I'm for it, especially if they spend a lot on Bauer. And I like knowing that he has already had success with Hefner, like May. That seemingly mitigates a little bit of the risk of a massive regression without a physical factor like Diaz.
Offensively their career trajectories and last 2 seasons are extremely similar - both were net negatives until the last 2 seasons, where they became positives. Here are some of their key #'s over the past 2 years - not the near identical triple slashes:
McCann (149 games) - 116 RC (3rd best C) - 25 homers .276/.334/.474
Vazquez (185 games) - 105 RC (7th best C) - 30 homers .278/.327/.472
So both have been roughly 800 OPS catchers for the last 2 combined seasons with solid BA, solid power, and similar walk rates, though McCann k's a little more.
Defensively things are interesting and comparable too. To start lets do some raw athletic numbers:
Pop time ranges (seasons):
McCann 2.0 best, 2.06 worst
Vazquez 1.96 best, 2.08 worst
CS% last 2 years and throwing MPH range:
McCann 32% (81-83mph)
Vazquez 35% (80-81mph)
In terms of raw numbers with passed balls and wild pitches, McCann has had fewer of both by a healthy margin (bigger margin than the difference in innings played). So perhaps he is a better blocker. His sprint speed grades out higher as well so he may just be a slightly better athlete (though Vazquez has 3 more stolen bases over the past couple years 8 vs. 5, Vazquez second only to JTR's 13 among C's).
By DRS over these 2 years, McCann (+9) is actually better than Vazquez (+6) but it's obviously pretty close.
Where Vazquez seemingly has an advantage is in framing, where he has consistently been one of the best in the league and graded in the 83rd percentile in 2020. However while McCann doesn't have as reliable a track record, in 2020 McCann was actually slightly better in the 88th percentile.
All in all I find them to be extremely comparable players and perhaps the 2 most comparable catchers in the game, so it's very hard to make a case for trading an asset for Vazquez when McCann is out there as a FA. Unless there's significant concern that McCann's framing improvement in 2020 was a fluke.
2019-2020 C leaderboard (min 550 PA) - sorted by RC - ( New Window )
Bauer 5 for 135 Angels (I'm 100% in)
Turner 2 for 28, yes please
Bauer 5 for 135 Angels (I'm 100% in)
Turner 2 for 28, yes please
Do you have a link to that article? Would be interesting in reading.
Quote:
Springer 5 for 119 for Toronto (I'd be pissed if we didn't do this)
Bauer 5 for 135 Angels (I'm 100% in)
Turner 2 for 28, yes please
Do you have a link to that article? Would be interesting in reading.
It's behind a paywall (The athletic is worth every penny FWIW).. I don't even want JBJ but 3 for 24 is a no-brainer for a team.
Link - ( New Window )
Bauer 5 for 135 Angels (I'm 100% in)
Turner 2 for 28, yes please
His 1 move for mets was JTR at 6 for 134 I think.
Out of the big 3 since the prices are almost the same, which would you choose if they could only do 1?
I think I'd go Bauer because he's the hardest to find elsewhere. But it's a tough call.
In some ways it's less about choosing 1 of those 3 guys and more about choosing which of the alternatives they feel best about (McCann, Odorizzi, whoever their backup plan is in CF).
Quote:
Springer 5 for 119 for Toronto (I'd be pissed if we didn't do this)
Bauer 5 for 135 Angels (I'm 100% in)
Turner 2 for 28, yes please
His 1 move for mets was JTR at 6 for 134 I think.
Out of the big 3 since the prices are almost the same, which would you choose if they could only do 1?
I think I'd go Bauer because he's the hardest to find elsewhere. But it's a tough call.
In some ways it's less about choosing 1 of those 3 guys and more about choosing which of the alternatives they feel best about (McCann, Odorizzi, whoever their backup plan is in CF).
If I'm allowed to play around with his moves I'd go Bauer, + JBJ at 3 for 24 (absolute steal), I'd have enough money left over for another of the SP (Odorizzi or Tanaka) and likely one more piece like a Turner. Again, I don't love JBJ but that's a steal level low price for him
Trade left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore and outfielders Jhon Torres and Justin Williams to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for shortstop Francisco Lindor.
He has LAD giving up their top 2 prospects in their system system/borderline and #10 Amaya (mlb pipeline).
He has STL giving up a top 50ish prospect in Liberatore but then 2 lesser guys in their system (between 10-20).
Don't think I'd be willing to pay those prices.
For CF/SP/C I think my preference would be:
Lorenzo Cain with a prospect attached
Bauer
McCann
But I think I could also be convinced towards Realmuto at C and 2 lesser SP's instead of Bauer. Perhaps Odorizzi and then trade JDD or Rosario for a SP with similar years of control?
Cain + young SP
for
JDD
Lauer, Peralta, or Hauser could make sense for MLB depth options. Or Small would be an interesting recent first round prospect to add (albeit a little old for a guy with only 20 professional innings).
Bowden is more miss than hit. Which is I guess similar to his record as GM, but he did it for 20 years so I do think he has some authority that it's not just random writers or people like us commenting.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
Vaughn for Lynn seems absurd. White Sox trade their top prospect who is MLB ready for ONE season of Lynn>?
Bowden is more miss than hit. Which is I guess similar to his record as GM, but he did it for 20 years so I do think he has some authority that it's not just random writers or people like us commenting.
That's still an absurdly high price for one season of Lance Lynn, he came into 2020 the #30 prospect in baseball per BA, MLB.com had him at 16. I'd be floored.
Where do you put Crow-Armstrong? - I am very high on this kid
Quote:
think Alvarez only becomes a trade chip if you sign Realmuto to a monster long-term deal. I mean the caveat is if some monster superstar suddenly becomes available "anyone" can be traded. But yeah, for me Alvarez is the one "absolutely not barring a superstar in his prime" return. Nobody else in the system is on that level for me. Allan is my #2.
Where do you put Crow-Armstrong? - I am very high on this kid
He's #4 on my personal list. Plus glove, potential 60 hit tool, power is? But also a high character kid, very high floor for a HS kid
Vientos, Baty, Wolf, Ginn, Greene are the next group. All seem to have upside but I wouldn't be shocked if any of them completely fizzle out.
Szapucki and Kilome are in a sort of weird wild card category where I could see them out of baseball or as a comeback prospect of the year in the system.
It really sucks knowing that SWR and Kelenic would probably be the clear top 2 in the system right now and probably a tier about of the tier the current top 4 are in. Signing the cuban kid in January would be a real nice step towards putting BVW's shitastic tenure behind us.
Overrating him by saying he could be out of baseball soon?
He has thrown 11 pro innings since 2018 post-TJS. Presumably next year he will either be in AA or hit AAA for the first time. What he looks like is literally anyone's guess. Just like Szapucki. I truly wouldn't be shocked to see either get completely shellacked and almost knocked out of pro baseball, or have success in the upper levels with the high velocity stuff that made them prospects in the first place. They are complete unknowns and I have 0 expectations for either of them.
It wouldn't shock me if any of that group in the middle never saw the bigs. Baty, Vientos, Wolf, Ginn. I obviously hope that's not the case and have high hopes for a few of them but they all have their risks.
Quote:
I think you're overrating Kilome. He's 26 (yes he missed a year due to TJ) but he had a 1.34 minor league whip, nearly 4 BB/9. His upside is probably major league filler at this point.
Overrating him by saying he could be out of baseball soon?
He has thrown 11 pro innings since 2018 post-TJS. Presumably next year he will either be in AA or hit AAA for the first time. What he looks like is literally anyone's guess. Just like Szapucki. I truly wouldn't be shocked to see either get completely shellacked and almost knocked out of pro baseball, or have success in the upper levels with the high velocity stuff that made them prospects in the first place. They are complete unknowns and I have 0 expectations for either of them.
By "comeback prospect in the system". He's a live arm with a career of underwhelming results. The Phillies essentially gave him away and he looked horrendous with the Mets. He's filler. There is nothing to suggest he has some untapped upside at 26 to suddenly surprise. As for Szapucki, interestingly Eddy didn't have him "top 11" and given the fact he said they have zero AA/AAA SP, his reports on Szapucki (which is where he derives his reports, from other teams intel) suggests "we" have high expectations than the reality.
Quote:
has a below average hit tool but does everything else pretty well. If he can hit 240ish, he has a shot to be a very valuable league average or better regular. If he can't cut down the K's then he likely flames out before he ever sees the bigs.
It wouldn't shock me if any of that group in the middle never saw the bigs. Baty, Vientos, Wolf, Ginn. I obviously hope that's not the case and have high hopes for a few of them but they all have their risks.
Odds are against all 4 (for varying reasons). Ginn is the closest so he has the best odds to see CitiField as a player, debatable the highest upside but probably Vientos (if he remains at 3b) but Baty is probably the best overall 3b prospect in the system (he too with high bust potential)
I get the K word, which coach?
Also re: Kilome, he still throws mid-90's and only so many guys can do that - especially in this system right now. He clearly was way over his head in big league action but that was to be expected given the circumstances. He's the same lotto ticket he was when they got him, just with a TJS and 2 more lost seasons under his belt. 1 of those lost seasons was obviously nobody's fault.
Also re: Kilome, he still throws mid-90's and only so many guys can do that - especially in this system right now. He clearly was way over his head in big league action but that was to be expected given the circumstances. He's the same lotto ticket he was when they got him, just with a TJS and 2 more lost seasons under his belt. 1 of those lost seasons was obviously nobody's fault.
Eddy didn't think Ginn's upside was as high as say Allan, said he's a 3-4 profile if everything works out. Said he was a good get by the Mets but might even be a RP.
He also thinks it's possible the Mets aim to add 1 big addition vs. 2
Quote:
He’s like saying a certain unnamed head coach of the giants around here :(
I get the K word, which coach?
Ray Handley I assume
Philly can fuck off. Wheeler is a good pitcher but there’s not a lot surplus value on that contract, especially in a pandemic environment. Id be happy to have Wheeler back (Philly wouldn’t trade him in the decision, so purely a hypo) but I wouldn’t give them one of our top 9 prospects.
Especially after their own said they're going to spend "stupid money".
@DannyVietti
·
20m
The Phillies have the longest playoff drought in the NL.
Haven’t had a winning season since 2011.
They’re now in a “financial crunch” and open to trading Zack Wheeler.
Locked into a contract with Bryce Harper for another decade.
They still don’t have a GM.
WHAT. A. MESS.
Mets can go out and sign Hand, Odorizzi, etc.
Mets can go out and sign Hand, Odorizzi, etc.
I'd love wheeler back
-Liriano is pitching in 2021 and might be a decent BP/rotation depth option.