That seems "fair" but fair value is an elusive concept. I think there is a lot of good thought on this thread.
The challenge with LW is I don't think he wanted fair value last offseason and I don't necessarily think he will want fair value this offseason. Makes me think more, can you build a winner if you are overpaying for a player non QB player? (Think there is plenty of precedent where paying a franchise QB like that you can win a SB so I won't delve into that)
You sure about that? Pretty sure it's Colin Cowherd, but not sure, loves to hammer home is that a QB has never won a SB making more than 15 percent of the cap. Now Brady obviously skews those numbers, but I don't think there is any evidence that teams can win a SB with their QB making a large percentage of the cap. Personally, for these type of arguments, I like to choose making a SB. The sample size of teams that win SB is just too small and things are always evolving in NFL so you can never go too far back.
Aaron Rodgers was on a big deal when he won I think. 15% is kind of an arbitrary cutoff too... Brady was making 12.2% of the cap when they won in 2019.
Don't have time to dig more but honestly it's more about can you overpay for a position player and not have a QB on a rookie deal and win to me.
I'd still do one more FT maneuver, but this seems reasonable if you want something longer term.
I just can't see Team LW taking this. They are going big game hunting...
The reality is big game hunting at DT above that band gets you to the Fletcher Cox, Aaron Donald area. I can see him getting a few more bucks guaranteed in years 3 & 4, and maybe some make believe dollars at the end.
I don't see the Giants applying the 2nd consecutive tender (19M, 125% of his salary this year), in a year with a cap reduction. It's a huge part of a smaller pie.
He's the second best player on our defense and we have the cap room
Because people here treat the cap and contracts with the intensity of a nuclear warhead.
You are in this business to keep guys like Williams. Again, I remind you all to go back to the Giants teams of the 2000s that were winning more often than not. Those teams were packed to the gills with over stuffed contracts and highly paid players. They still managed things year after year. All we do is worry about money around here. First time in years this team has a defense and some of you can't let these players walk fast enough.
Williams is going to get paid a mint from the Giants. Just friggin deal with it.
He's the second best player on our defense and we have the cap room
Because people here treat the cap and contracts with the intensity of a nuclear warhead.
You are in this business to keep guys like Williams. Again, I remind you all to go back to the Giants teams of the 2000s that were winning more often than not. Those teams were packed to the gills with over stuffed contracts and highly paid players. They still managed things year after year. All we do is worry about money around here. First time in years this team has a defense and some of you can't let these players walk fast enough.
Williams is going to get paid a mint from the Giants. Just friggin deal with it.
And because we made the “egregious” mistake of trading for him, we now have the option of franchising him again, IF NECESSARY..That’s why DG went after him at his age of 25 with solid years ahead of him: To either workout a long term contract and if necessary FT him until and when something is worked out. I was elated with the move when it happened, was not all that concerned with losing a 3rd and am even more elated now.
We need to get rid of all our good players because we will have to
There is only one tackle in top 30 of real guaranteed dollars in the NFL -- Aaron Donald.
When you shake off the window dressing of numbers, Williams will probably get ~40-45M real guaranteed dollars, which after next offseason might get him into the top 30.
He's not getting paid like a top 15 player, where the numbers really shoot up.
He's having a career year in a franchise tag year. Typically, that is a red flag. This is the same guy the Jets decided was expendable, who garnered 1 sack last season and was the anchor of defense that couldn't stop anything.
Now you pay through the nose for a long term deal structured for cap relief(and remember, they couldn't reach a deal after last season when he was pretty meh) or you eat up a ton of the cap on one more franchise tag at an average of the top 5 at his position and you still have to try and sign him to a long term deal. Would still have made more sense to pay him after his meh last season than now if they were that convicted about his prospects.
RE: We need to get rid of all our good players because we will have to
I know I've posted this before, but a team in the Giants situation isn't letting go good players because they just can't sign all of the good ones on their roster. They are doing so to redeploy the dollars and sign another vet FA from another team. The argument is that those signings are much more risky than just retaining someone who is playing well in your team concept. (In the case of the ER vs a DT argument, ERs are also more expensive.)
Summary: optimizing roster management by letting go your high-performing vets has less of a benefit/risk ratio than simply keeping your players.
A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.
Reading some of the posts on here, you would think the cap
doesn't apply to the NY Giants, at all. And that overpaying players, even the really good ones, doesn't affect any part of the rest of the roster in that year and future years.
And this from guys who have seemingly been Giant fans for years, and have lost their minds because of a 4-game winning streak.
Keep this in mind, Leonard Williams is not signed yet because Gettleman & Front Office doesn't subscribe to your thinking.
RE: RE: We need to get rid of all our good players because we will have to
or let them all walk. It is posed as a risk to overpay one player at the top of the league scale, when he has exactly one season that would qualify him for this level vs. perhaps using that money to re-sign 2 players, perhaps. This also doesn't mean the Giants shouldn't or won't pay him. It is worth exploring as a risk, however. The cap will impact moves, especially with another huge contract (Solder) coming back on the books.
RE: We need to get rid of all our good players because we will have to
He's having a career year in a franchise tag year. Typically, that is a red flag. This is the same guy the Jets decided was expendable, who garnered 1 sack last season and was the anchor of defense that couldn't stop anything.
Now you pay through the nose for a long term deal structured for cap relief(and remember, they couldn't reach a deal after last season when he was pretty meh) or you eat up a ton of the cap on one more franchise tag at an average of the top 5 at his position and you still have to try and sign him to a long term deal. Would still have made more sense to pay him after his meh last season than now if they were that convicted about his prospects.
Ah yes, the Jets decided he was expendable...
How’s that working out for them? Do you EVER think before posting your nonsense? The Jets? Why should we give a damn about their decision making?
It's funny that BigBlueShock accuses others of being arrogant
doesn't apply to the NY Giants, at all. And that overpaying players, even the really good ones, doesn't affect any part of the rest of the roster in that year and future years.
And this from guys who have seemingly been Giant fans for years, and have lost their minds because of a 4-game winning streak.
Keep this in mind, Leonard Williams is not signed yet because Gettleman & Front Office doesn't subscribe to your thinking.
Our defense just had its best performance in years and people are talking about letting the guy go, that glues the whole thing together, over for 1 or 2 million a year?
This isn't Madden. People are hilarious. You act like you are professional capologists. (I invent words.) You set up ab imaginary deal and put up a big red line in the proverbial sand and proclaim, a penny more and I let him walk. I am laughing at you.
We have been the worst team in football for 3 years and you guys want to run the players out of town that are bringing us back from the ledge because you have decided you are some kind of cap guru. I think some of you are so used to being miserable that it has become your comfortable.
We don't have to worry about this today.
Today it is December 9th.
We are playing meaningful games.
We appear to be ascending as a team.
Let's keep the team together, if only in our heads.
You are the same arrogant jackass that spent several months referring to posters as "Luddites" because they didn't buy your line of bullshit on analytics.
Oh, what a surprise? Repeating the same lines you always do?
Sorry not playing today. Luddite was too generous. You are just a POS.
Is there an off setting on your troll switch? Even the castrated version of you is very unpleasant. I guess that's the only way you've ever surprised me.
Is it because you are so arrogant that you think my main reason for posting is to go after you??
With each passing week where you try to work in posts about analytics, two things become increasingly obvious.
1) Your need to inject analytics into discussions - even where they don't apply is borderlining on an obsession
2) The take that the Giants have their heads up their asses regarding analytics is becoming more and more a figment of your imagination.
And if you think I'm neutered - you might want it to stay that way - I've talked to a few teams who have been approached by a jackass peddling Madden simulations as "analytics". And by George, you really don't want me to go there.
You came on this thread solely to take a potshot at me while I'm trying to have a perfectly respectful discussion with a number of people. I guess you felt justified because I called out another poster for coming onto what was a very nice a civil discussion for the sole purpose of calling another poster stupid.
Maybe think about how noble your crusade to protect the board and the Giants is when this is how you exist.
Is it because you are so arrogant that you think my main reason for posting is to go after you??
With each passing week where you try to work in posts about analytics, two things become increasingly obvious.
1) Your need to inject analytics into discussions - even where they don't apply is borderlining on an obsession
2) The take that the Giants have their heads up their asses regarding analytics is becoming more and more a figment of your imagination.
And if you think I'm neutered - you might want it to stay that way - I've talked to a few teams who have been approached by a jackass peddling Madden simulations as "analytics". And by George, you really don't want me to go there.
Excuse me? This sounds like a threat? You know what you are doing.
I have talked to teams but you know very little about me other than that and I'm not pedaling anything, not even close to my primary job. And I work with a lot of different industries about predicting stuff so yeah. Sorry one of my many forays into a non-core business of mine in predictive analytics is unimpressive to you.
You aren't as clever as you think. I'm not taking the bait revealing what you did, but it has nothing to do with Madden simulations, which couldn't be further from what I'm doing.
and he just keeps coming at me. And 1 in every 20 times I respond.
Talk to him. He's like many years my senior and he can keep taking shots at me and I'm expected to not respond when he can't even remotely control himself?
I've been on this thread to talk football, he came on just to insult me, do you not see the difference there?
RE: RE: RE: RE: We need to get rid of all our good players because we will have to
Our defense just had its best performance in years and people are talking about letting the guy go, that glues the whole thing together, over for 1 or 2 million a year?
This isn't Madden. People are hilarious. You act like you are professional capologists. (I invent words.) You set up ab imaginary deal and put up a big red line in the proverbial sand and proclaim, a penny more and I let him walk. I am laughing at you.
We have been the worst team in football for 3 years and you guys want to run the players out of town that are bringing us back from the ledge because you have decided you are some kind of cap guru. I think some of you are so used to being miserable that it has become your comfortable.
We don't have to worry about this today.
Today it is December 9th.
We are playing meaningful games.
We appear to be ascending as a team.
Let's keep the team together, if only in our heads.
Agreed this LW debate is actually a quantitative debate. Everyone would want him on the team for $7mm per, no one would want him for $30mm. So it’s really a question of what your walk away number is. Mine is 20, although I suspect LW won’t get that due to the cap declining in 2021.
about the enlightened self interest of the parties involved.
Not so much what amount but when to make the deal and how to structure it
The way to lower risk and increase whatever leverage they may possibly have for the NYG is to sign as late as possible but before FA and the draft so they have replacement optionality
Since they have to deliver guaranteed dollars in any circumstances, another transition tag in return for another year into the prime of a guy who maybe overpricing himself maybe a undesirable but acceptable tradeoff allowing two restocking seasons to keep a dominant DL.
When the event takes place for LW and for the NYG is not something we discuss that often. And for all we know, the negotiations might be very healthy. Starting last year they may have said: " We want to pay you like an elite DL but we need to see it first. Lets give you a shot to show us (and the NFL)"
Or they could be stubborn, factless, petty and difficult conversation such that we like the player but not the agent/family dynamics that come with it.
Beats me. Notice both sides have been good at keeping relatively silent in the media. So far. Unusually so. imo.
The Giants have never shown themselves incapable of retaining top talent due to financials. It seems like it's more of a LW thing than a Giants thing imo.
One more tag year may be the optimal thing indeed, especially if he's asking ridiculous money.
Plenty of factors point to both sides benefiting from a long term deal:
1) 2021 is NFL year 7 for Williams, how many defensive lineman entering year 8 hit top of market long term dollars?
2) The 1.25x accelerator gets his tender to 19M. This is fruit of calculations and agreements assuming a rising cap. 19M against a 175M cap isn’t part of the projection.
3) Top tackles not named Donald get 40M guaranteed at signing in exchange for little to no money guaranteed after 2 years. Years 3&4 are fixed price future options. Why would the Giants pay 19M for 1, when 40M gets you 2 and your choice of 3 & 4?
The challenge with LW is I don't think he wanted fair value last offseason and I don't necessarily think he will want fair value this offseason. Makes me think more, can you build a winner if you are overpaying for a player non QB player? (Think there is plenty of precedent where paying a franchise QB like that you can win a SB so I won't delve into that)
You sure about that? Pretty sure it's Colin Cowherd, but not sure, loves to hammer home is that a QB has never won a SB making more than 15 percent of the cap. Now Brady obviously skews those numbers, but I don't think there is any evidence that teams can win a SB with their QB making a large percentage of the cap. Personally, for these type of arguments, I like to choose making a SB. The sample size of teams that win SB is just too small and things are always evolving in NFL so you can never go too far back.
I'd like to see 4/70M, with 40M guaranteed at signing, 50M total guaranteed.
- 15M signing bonus
- 21/22 salaries guaranteed at signing
- 23 salary guaranteed first day of league year
2021 - 12.5M salary*, 5M bonus*
2022 - 12.5M salary*, 5M bonus*
2023 - 10M salary, 5M bonus*
2024 - 20M salary
I'd still do one more FT maneuver, but this seems reasonable if you want something longer term.
I just can't see Team LW taking this. They are going big game hunting...
Don't have time to dig more but honestly it's more about can you overpay for a position player and not have a QB on a rookie deal and win to me.
I just can't see Team LW taking this. They are going big game hunting...
The reality is big game hunting at DT above that band gets you to the Fletcher Cox, Aaron Donald area. I can see him getting a few more bucks guaranteed in years 3 & 4, and maybe some make believe dollars at the end.
I don't see the Giants applying the 2nd consecutive tender (19M, 125% of his salary this year), in a year with a cap reduction. It's a huge part of a smaller pie.
No system is gonna make him look better than PG's is, so he got lucky here, IMO.
Exactly, he's an anchor and you don't let those go
Because people here treat the cap and contracts with the intensity of a nuclear warhead.
You are in this business to keep guys like Williams. Again, I remind you all to go back to the Giants teams of the 2000s that were winning more often than not. Those teams were packed to the gills with over stuffed contracts and highly paid players. They still managed things year after year. All we do is worry about money around here. First time in years this team has a defense and some of you can't let these players walk fast enough.
Williams is going to get paid a mint from the Giants. Just friggin deal with it.
Quote:
He's the second best player on our defense and we have the cap room
Because people here treat the cap and contracts with the intensity of a nuclear warhead.
You are in this business to keep guys like Williams. Again, I remind you all to go back to the Giants teams of the 2000s that were winning more often than not. Those teams were packed to the gills with over stuffed contracts and highly paid players. They still managed things year after year. All we do is worry about money around here. First time in years this team has a defense and some of you can't let these players walk fast enough.
Williams is going to get paid a mint from the Giants. Just friggin deal with it.
And because we made the “egregious” mistake of trading for him, we now have the option of franchising him again, IF NECESSARY..That’s why DG went after him at his age of 25 with solid years ahead of him: To either workout a long term contract and if necessary FT him until and when something is worked out. I was elated with the move when it happened, was not all that concerned with losing a 3rd and am even more elated now.
When you shake off the window dressing of numbers, Williams will probably get ~40-45M real guaranteed dollars, which after next offseason might get him into the top 30.
He's not getting paid like a top 15 player, where the numbers really shoot up.
Now you pay through the nose for a long term deal structured for cap relief(and remember, they couldn't reach a deal after last season when he was pretty meh) or you eat up a ton of the cap on one more franchise tag at an average of the top 5 at his position and you still have to try and sign him to a long term deal. Would still have made more sense to pay him after his meh last season than now if they were that convicted about his prospects.
Specious argument. Put some bones on it, at least.
Remember the impending Cowboys cap apocalypse (acapalypse - hey, did I make that up)? Yeah, me, too.
Quote:
pay them more. Thats how you build a team.
Specious argument. Put some bones on it, at least.
Why, no one else here does.
Summary: optimizing roster management by letting go your high-performing vets has less of a benefit/risk ratio than simply keeping your players.
A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.
And this from guys who have seemingly been Giant fans for years, and have lost their minds because of a 4-game winning streak.
Keep this in mind, Leonard Williams is not signed yet because Gettleman & Front Office doesn't subscribe to your thinking.
Quote:
pay them more. Thats how you build a team.
Specious argument. Put some bones on it, at least.
What kind of bones are you looking for?
I read this as you being facetious, yes?
Now you pay through the nose for a long term deal structured for cap relief(and remember, they couldn't reach a deal after last season when he was pretty meh) or you eat up a ton of the cap on one more franchise tag at an average of the top 5 at his position and you still have to try and sign him to a long term deal. Would still have made more sense to pay him after his meh last season than now if they were that convicted about his prospects.
Ah yes, the Jets decided he was expendable...
How’s that working out for them? Do you EVER think before posting your nonsense? The Jets? Why should we give a damn about their decision making?
Seems like a fairly stupid and arrogant way to exist on a message board.
Quote:
In comment 15073540 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
pay them more. Thats how you build a team.
Specious argument. Put some bones on it, at least.
What kind of bones are you looking for?
Plenty have added the bones, intelligently, including in this thread.
A) I won't throw the first stone against a poster, not my style, I will throw them back at people that throw them at me
B) Typical response from you, the % of your posts that are insulting people vs. actually trying to benefit a discussion is laughable
C) Clearly you've been muzzled / neutered because you would never change on your own
Again, I feel bad for you. Living inside your head is probably the most unpleasant place to be of all.
And this from guys who have seemingly been Giant fans for years, and have lost their minds because of a 4-game winning streak.
Keep this in mind, Leonard Williams is not signed yet because Gettleman & Front Office doesn't subscribe to your thinking.
Have to talk in ways they understand.
Lotsa Cap
Good Cap (Abramsian)
Cap Hell
To translate here, is LW good cap? Y/N? Y!!
This isn't Madden. People are hilarious. You act like you are professional capologists. (I invent words.) You set up ab imaginary deal and put up a big red line in the proverbial sand and proclaim, a penny more and I let him walk. I am laughing at you.
We have been the worst team in football for 3 years and you guys want to run the players out of town that are bringing us back from the ledge because you have decided you are some kind of cap guru. I think some of you are so used to being miserable that it has become your comfortable.
We don't have to worry about this today.
Today it is December 9th.
We are playing meaningful games.
We appear to be ascending as a team.
Let's keep the team together, if only in our heads.
For a few minutes at least?
FFS.
You are the same arrogant jackass that spent several months referring to posters as "Luddites" because they didn't buy your line of bullshit on analytics.
Is there an off setting on your troll switch? Even the castrated version of you is very unpleasant. I guess that's the only way you've ever surprised me.
Byeeeeee
Still no victor.
Its like watching Butterbean vs Bob Sapp.
Entertaining for a few seconds, but basically, nothing more than 2 old guys two guys breathing heavy and clinching.
You guys dislike each other.
Thinks the other is an asshole.
Both incapable of letting it go.
All of us get it.
Do the two of you?
Is it because you are so arrogant that you think my main reason for posting is to go after you??
With each passing week where you try to work in posts about analytics, two things become increasingly obvious.
1) Your need to inject analytics into discussions - even where they don't apply is borderlining on an obsession
2) The take that the Giants have their heads up their asses regarding analytics is becoming more and more a figment of your imagination.
And if you think I'm neutered - you might want it to stay that way - I've talked to a few teams who have been approached by a jackass peddling Madden simulations as "analytics". And by George, you really don't want me to go there.
Maybe think about how noble your crusade to protect the board and the Giants is when this is how you exist.
Still no victor.
Its like watching Butterbean vs Bob Sapp.
Entertaining for a few seconds, but basically, nothing more than 2 old guys two guys breathing heavy and clinching.
You guys dislike each other.
Thinks the other is an asshole.
Both incapable of letting it go.
All of us get it.
Do the two of you?
Look, I've been perfectly pleasant on this thread and he just came to stir up shit.
Oblivious.
Is it because you are so arrogant that you think my main reason for posting is to go after you??
With each passing week where you try to work in posts about analytics, two things become increasingly obvious.
1) Your need to inject analytics into discussions - even where they don't apply is borderlining on an obsession
2) The take that the Giants have their heads up their asses regarding analytics is becoming more and more a figment of your imagination.
And if you think I'm neutered - you might want it to stay that way - I've talked to a few teams who have been approached by a jackass peddling Madden simulations as "analytics". And by George, you really don't want me to go there.
Excuse me? This sounds like a threat? You know what you are doing.
I have talked to teams but you know very little about me other than that and I'm not pedaling anything, not even close to my primary job. And I work with a lot of different industries about predicting stuff so yeah. Sorry one of my many forays into a non-core business of mine in predictive analytics is unimpressive to you.
Sounds like the truth of peddling Madden simulations hits a little too close to home. I hope it isn't you, because the feedback isn't positive.
Lest you go and threaten slander again to the mods.
Quote:
Round nine hundred seventy two.
Still no victor.
Its like watching Butterbean vs Bob Sapp.
Entertaining for a few seconds, but basically, nothing more than 2 old guys two guys breathing heavy and clinching.
You guys dislike each other.
Thinks the other is an asshole.
Both incapable of letting it go.
All of us get it.
Do the two of you?
Look, I've been perfectly pleasant on this thread and he just came to stir up shit.
Again.
It's old.
Not that either of you care, but I enjoy both of you. You both have meaningful things to say.
Let it go.
Ignore each other for all of us.
Please?
Talk to him. He's like many years my senior and he can keep taking shots at me and I'm expected to not respond when he can't even remotely control himself?
I've been on this thread to talk football, he came on just to insult me, do you not see the difference there?
Quote:
In comment 15073565 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 15073540 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
pay them more. Thats how you build a team.
Specious argument. Put some bones on it, at least.
What kind of bones are you looking for?
Plenty have added the bones, intelligently, including in this thread.
Agreed - that's why I was curious what you were looking for.
This isn't Madden. People are hilarious. You act like you are professional capologists. (I invent words.) You set up ab imaginary deal and put up a big red line in the proverbial sand and proclaim, a penny more and I let him walk. I am laughing at you.
We have been the worst team in football for 3 years and you guys want to run the players out of town that are bringing us back from the ledge because you have decided you are some kind of cap guru. I think some of you are so used to being miserable that it has become your comfortable.
We don't have to worry about this today.
Today it is December 9th.
We are playing meaningful games.
We appear to be ascending as a team.
Let's keep the team together, if only in our heads.
For a few minutes at least?
FFS.
Join any thread you want or not.
Oblivious.
You're not very intelligent or interesting.Remember when you and Stan said it was a horrible investment at $3K 😂🤣😂🤣🤣🤣
I'm sure you are smart enough to appreciate the exercise of building a competitive team within the confines of a hard cap.
So it seems like a reasonable debate with LW on how to pay this "good player" a price that is beneficial to both player and team.
True?
Not so much what amount but when to make the deal and how to structure it
The way to lower risk and increase whatever leverage they may possibly have for the NYG is to sign as late as possible but before FA and the draft so they have replacement optionality
Since they have to deliver guaranteed dollars in any circumstances, another transition tag in return for another year into the prime of a guy who maybe overpricing himself maybe a undesirable but acceptable tradeoff allowing two restocking seasons to keep a dominant DL.
When the event takes place for LW and for the NYG is not something we discuss that often. And for all we know, the negotiations might be very healthy. Starting last year they may have said: " We want to pay you like an elite DL but we need to see it first. Lets give you a shot to show us (and the NFL)"
Or they could be stubborn, factless, petty and difficult conversation such that we like the player but not the agent/family dynamics that come with it.
Beats me. Notice both sides have been good at keeping relatively silent in the media. So far. Unusually so. imo.
One more tag year may be the optimal thing indeed, especially if he's asking ridiculous money.
1) 2021 is NFL year 7 for Williams, how many defensive lineman entering year 8 hit top of market long term dollars?
2) The 1.25x accelerator gets his tender to 19M. This is fruit of calculations and agreements assuming a rising cap. 19M against a 175M cap isn’t part of the projection.
3) Top tackles not named Donald get 40M guaranteed at signing in exchange for little to no money guaranteed after 2 years. Years 3&4 are fixed price future options. Why would the Giants pay 19M for 1, when 40M gets you 2 and your choice of 3 & 4?