the NYG have been clear from day 1 they wanted to keep LW but that doesn't mean you hand him or any player a blank check. It's a salary negotiation where it takes BOTH SIDES to form an agreement.
I think I have whiplash from the abrupt shift in opinion from the "leonard williams is overpaid" crew. Just a few weeks ago he wasn't worth the $16m tag now the NYG made a mistake by not paying him more?
Should they have paid him whatever he wanted and ignored their option to simply tag him and pay $16m this year?
Should they ignore that option again next year if LW says he wants Aaron Donald money?
It's not hypocrisy nor a change in opinion to question why he isn't signed to an extended contract. It is part and parcel to spending value to pursuing him on a losing team and then not completing the deal. This is the GM's vision and presumably plan...go execute it as the price is only going up, right?
I'm actually pointing out the hypocrisy in people saying "See DG was smart he knew he was going to be this player!" if he did actually know that he would have signed him long term is my point.
The Giants played it like this with the FT because they were skeptical too and there is no other way to slice it. Which leads to the other relevant point of what were they expecting when they traded for him? What was their plan?
My god is this a horrendous take. I don't know if it's intellectual dishonesty or gettleman dysmorphia but this has got to be the stupidest take du jour.
To answer your question about what their plan was - it seems simple to me because they commented publicly at each step in the process. They acquired a player they believed in, attempted to sign him to a long term contract, and in absence of an agreement with the player fell back on the option pay him as a top 5 player at his position.
They will likely negotiate with him again this offseason, and tag him again if they can't come to an agreement.
Unless you think the better negotiating style is giving players whatever they ask for?
Nope, but there are other options that can be pursued
I'm actually pointing out the hypocrisy in people saying "See DG was smart he knew he was going to be this player!" if he did actually know that he would have signed him long term is my point.
The Giants played it like this with the FT because they were skeptical too and there is no other way to slice it. Which leads to the other relevant point of what were they expecting when they traded for him? What was their plan?
My god is this a horrendous take. I don't know if it's intellectual dishonesty or gettleman dysmorphia but this has got to be the stupidest take du jour.
To answer your question about what their plan was - it seems simple to me because they commented publicly at each step in the process. They acquired a player they believed in, attempted to sign him to a long term contract, and in absence of an agreement with the player fell back on the option pay him as a top 5 player at his position.
They will likely negotiate with him again this offseason, and tag him again if they can't come to an agreement.
Unless you think the better negotiating style is giving players whatever they ask for?
Keep up the good fight, Eric. Holy smokes these are some bad takes. Some are just never going to admit the Giants had a plan with LW and they are still trying to execute such plan. Doesn’t fit their narrative.
No I don't think it is good to write a blank check
but you aren't acknowledging that the trade put them in a terrible negotiating position. What in what I was saying said they should give him a blank check?
I am saying that there is a reason many teams trade picks and ensure they can agree on a long term deal as the trade is being made, to avoid situations like the one we are in now.
It isn't really a good strategy to trade for a player and franchise them two years in a row, players want long term deals and you strain the relationship with them.
I don't know what is so "horrendous" about the take of it is good to sign a player long term when you trade draft picks for them and do your diligence on what that will take before the deal is completed.
Good thoughts. Team LW have to feel they are in the pole position going into the offseason in terms of first ask.
I'd still let Team LW walk and say thanks for a great year. Just don't feel comfortable with paying for what looks like - finally - a real breakthrough year. If we decide to keep him, I'd FT one more time...
Agree on tag. I absolutely love the season he is having. But, one, I don't trust we will see it again and two, I don't think it is a $20M season.
RE: RE: Not liking the trade was never about Williams
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
Interesting question. With each week, I am becoming worried we will lose Graham this off season. That really scares me.
As for Williams, the only thing I can say in terms of expectations moving forward is he isn't the typical FA coming out of nowhere in a contract year. He has had some success before, even if moderate. But, more importantly, all year long he is double and even triple teamed. So, it's not like a typical DL that has a big year in large part because he is defended 1 on 1 or benefits from another great DL alongside him and then when he gets the payday and the attention of OLs he disappears. That isn't an issue here. But, I still can't be certain he will maintain a level of production even close to this.
it's a good thing that DG and the Giants saw this talent and potential in Williams while others did not. We got him while others were sleeping. Worrying about the contract at this point seems ridiculous to me. He's going to get paid and he's worth every penny.
I am just happy we found Williams.
I just don't see how you can say he is worth every penny. He wants Donald money, but isn't Donald. And he has not consistent track record of this play to be able to expect it. Even looking just at this season, I can't see committing $20M per for 5 years. That could be a debilitating contract moving forward.
RE: No I don't think it is good to write a blank check
but you aren't acknowledging that the trade put them in a terrible negotiating position. What in what I was saying said they should give him a blank check?
I am saying that there is a reason many teams trade picks and ensure they can agree on a long term deal as the trade is being made, to avoid situations like the one we are in now.
It isn't really a good strategy to trade for a player and franchise them two years in a row, players want long term deals and you strain the relationship with them.
I don't know what is so "horrendous" about the take of it is good to sign a player long term when you trade draft picks for them and do your diligence on what that will take before the deal is completed.
The bad take was saying it was a mistake that they didn't extend him when they clearly wanted and tried to do. They can't make the player say yes.
The horrendous take is saying that despite all evidence to the contrary, they didn't believe in the player because they couldn't agree to a contract.
Ideally he would have resigned reasonably. Nobody would disagree with that opinion. Ideally they wouldn't have had to trade for him. Nobody would disagree with that one either. But we live in the world we have not always the world we want. If they didn't trade for him someone else was going to. And if Leonard Williams wanted to hold out to be paid more than was offered he had that right.
By trading for him the NYG got his rights and correctly exercised the tag - especially given the fact that they had a new coaching staff implementing a new scheme. There was zero downside in paying the player LESS than he wanted and should they choose to they can do it again next year.
I think, as in any negotiation, there is a degree of "good faith"...
The Giants invested draft capital in Williams, and I'm sure before they did that they had a discussion about an extension.
Williams didn't feel like half a season on another shitty team was a good representation of his value, so the Giants franchised him and he essentially has a one year "prove your worth it" year.
Now, Williams has proved it and he and the Giants return to the table. But the Giants are not without options. They still have the threat of tagging him again, which starts the process over, and it's not without risk to Williams. He could get injured. Or, he could lose leverage with a sub par to this year performance. There are a lot of unknowns if the Giants tag him again.
So what will likely happen is that both sides will return to the table again and a deal will get done that benefits both sides, that started in good faith last year.
First off, he definitely was better with us than he was last year for the Jets. With the Jets he has one good year in 2016. The rest were mediocre and why they wanted to deal him. They were content with his production, especially for a 1st round pick and had no interest in paying him.
For us, he played well and was better than the rest of our DL. But, what was that really saying last year? He had no sacks and not a lot of tackles. Yes, I know he got some pressures and just misses. That isn't a $20M player.
Even with 2016 in mind, this is the first season Williams can be called outstanding and/or having lived up to his draft day expectations.
RE: I think, as in any negotiation, there is a degree of
The Giants invested draft capital in Williams, and I'm sure before they did that they had a discussion about an extension.
Williams didn't feel like half a season on another shitty team was a good representation of his value, so the Giants franchised him and he essentially has a one year "prove your worth it" year.
Now, Williams has proved it and he and the Giants return to the table. But the Giants are not without options. They still have the threat of tagging him again, which starts the process over, and it's not without risk to Williams. He could get injured. Or, he could lose leverage with a sub par to this year performance. There are a lot of unknowns if the Giants tag him again.
So what will likely happen is that both sides will return to the table again and a deal will get done that benefits both sides, that started in good faith last year.
It's not like tagging him doesn't make him a very wealthy man. It just is another single year with no guarantees for the future. But, back to back tags would leave with with nearly $40M for 2 years of service.
it's a good thing that DG and the Giants saw this talent and potential in Williams while others did not. We got him while others were sleeping. Worrying about the contract at this point seems ridiculous to me. He's going to get paid and he's worth every penny.
I am just happy we found Williams.
I just don't see how you can say he is worth every penny. He wants Donald money, but isn't Donald. And he has not consistent track record of this play to be able to expect it. Even looking just at this season, I can't see committing $20M per for 5 years. That could be a debilitating contract moving forward.
a) Donald makes 22.5m per year
b) he has never said he wants Donald money (Ralph V. reported him wanting 18-20m when they were negotiating)
I do think after this year he is going to be looking at close to Jones/Buckner money, and he probably has a very good case to get it. But even those deals are a little deceiving relative to Donald - the amount of guaranteed money he received was about $30m higher than both. Christian did a good breakdown of the Buckner contract on one of the other recent LW threads.
I agree with you on the price Matt suggested (~$20M)
I don't really expect him to be reasonable but to me Judge this coaching staff is the X-factor. When people talked about LW liking NY and signing for a discount I was very skeptical but I could see people wanting to play for this coaching staff and taking a discount for sure. You can't exactly give DG credit for this though as when he made the trade people pretty much universally were panning our DC and HC. That is actually another issue I had with the trade, sending a player into a lame duck coaching situation isn't exactly the best way to create a fond image of the team.
I'd be fine with him at $18M and not at $20M it's really as simple as that. Some people might say you don't want to lose one of your best players over $2M but building a team is more than saying is this player good or bad.
If we never traded for him and assuming two things:
1) He remained with the Jets
2) He maintained the same level of play with them (not even elevating to what we got)
What do you think he would have brought in via FA last off season? I honestly think we did him a favor. There is no way he was getting near the tag value based on prior production. We gave him a change of scenery to up his value some. But, without that, is he much more than a $30-40M/3 years guy?
It is very possible that he will want to go to the team that pays the most. Many players can and do.
In that case, the Giants are seeing his price tag go up this year based on his performance.
On the other hand, one must consider that LW will decide that the largest contract is NOT what he cares about the most. After ending up on the Jets, he may know full well that he doesn't want to play for a loser organization no matter what. He just might decide he wants to play for an organization that he believes will give him a chance to win, as long as the offer makes him wealthy.
Having said that, perhaps the Giants recent play is working in their favor in terms of reaching a long-term agreement with LW. He seems quite happy with the organization. Check out these quotes from last night:
Quote:
It's been fun. The scheme has been fun. The guys around me have been helping me play great. The system has been helping me play great. The energy on the team has been helping me play great...
Quote:
I feel like we have a real culture now, and I love how this team is going.
With him saying things like this, is it possible that he no longer will hold out for the highest dollar contract possible before signing a long-term deal? Could it be that he will sign a reasonable extension (obviously highly paid) rather than hitting free agency to max out his contract?
RE: I think, as in any negotiation, there is a degree of
The Giants invested draft capital in Williams, and I'm sure before they did that they had a discussion about an extension.
Williams didn't feel like half a season on another shitty team was a good representation of his value, so the Giants franchised him and he essentially has a one year "prove your worth it" year.
Now, Williams has proved it and he and the Giants return to the table. But the Giants are not without options. They still have the threat of tagging him again, which starts the process over, and it's not without risk to Williams. He could get injured. Or, he could lose leverage with a sub par to this year performance. There are a lot of unknowns if the Giants tag him again.
So what will likely happen is that both sides will return to the table again and a deal will get done that benefits both sides, that started in good faith last year.
Agree Britt. I suspect he will get a deal very similar to the Jones/Buckner deals signed last year. Jones got 4x80m w/ 37m gtd at signing, Buckner got 4x84m w/ 39m gtd at signing.
I'd imagine last offseason the NYG offer was more in the 16/17m AAV (4x60m-70m) range and LW thought he may as well just play the year on the 16m tag and try to increase his value to the 18-20m range.
The decline in the cap in 2022 will put pressure on LWs' demands
But I think his ramp-up in performance will make Eric's numbers look realistic. I say $18-19mm per. Structuring the cap hit will be an interesting project for the Giants.
Btw, Aaron Donald has a cap hit of $25.0mm this season
I agree that sometimes it's more about the whole team. I hate that a discussion like this always seems to boil down to being accused disliking a player. I don't dislike Williams nor do I think this team experiences their resurgence in the second half of the season without him. The only thing I object to is the price. And that objection is because I don't know if this is the same player we will get for even 3 years, let alone 5. This is his 6th year in the league and he never before approached this level of play. It is a legitimate concern to ask if it is because it's a contract year.
On the other hand, it is a legitimate argument from him to say we both bet on me this year with the tag. I delivered, now you must. In that regard, the tag worked as intended for both. The Giants got the production they wanted and Williams backed up his request. Now, I think the Giants will feel pressured to re-sign him and will overpay. We can only hope collectively that he plays somewhere near this level, especially with the prospect of Graham being gone.
and I'd love to sign him to an incentive laden deal with roster bonuses. (Fine to do pressures, TFLs and not sacks)
I'd also go further to say that I wouldn't mind the 2nd year of the franchise tag if I had confidence it wouldn't create issues for him. (I think it likely would)
I wouldn't say the draft picks are worth two years though, and that is where I think a cohesive strategy to win is very important.
These days increasingly in the NFL it is very hard to sustain success and you have to kind of line up your assets. That 3rd and 4th round pick we traded for him had the opportunity to add value to teams more in our likely competition window. And to me that's where the draft pick thing is important. In the end, it looks like we will sign him to the kind of overpay deal that players on the open market sign and players of his caliber are available at every offseason for the overpay.
IMO you should only trade picks for a player who you have locked in at a good price, especially without the cap hit of the bonus or A+ premium players like Ramsey that are never going to hit FA. And IF you are going to trade for a non-elite player without time left on their deal, you have to agree to terms at the time of the trade. The reasons are obvious why you'd want to do it in only these ways...
RE: RE: Not liking the trade was never about Williams
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
No, I thought Hernandez played RG. I never said that about Lemieux and expressly said that is one reason I wanted him at LG. I may have not remembered the article about him and Zeitler correctly, but so far the end result seems to be correct. Get over it.
I'm not criticizing our best player. I do not have a bad thing to say about Williams' performance this season. I am skeptical about paying the man as much as $20M per year. Those are two completely different things.
and I'd love to sign him to an incentive laden deal with roster bonuses. (Fine to do pressures, TFLs and not sacks)
I'd also go further to say that I wouldn't mind the 2nd year of the franchise tag if I had confidence it wouldn't create issues for him. (I think it likely would)
I wouldn't say the draft picks are worth two years though, and that is where I think a cohesive strategy to win is very important.
These days increasingly in the NFL it is very hard to sustain success and you have to kind of line up your assets. That 3rd and 4th round pick we traded for him had the opportunity to add value to teams more in our likely competition window. And to me that's where the draft pick thing is important. In the end, it looks like we will sign him to the kind of overpay deal that players on the open market sign and players of his caliber are available at every offseason for the overpay.
IMO you should only trade picks for a player who you have locked in at a good price, especially without the cap hit of the bonus or A+ premium players like Ramsey that are never going to hit FA. And IF you are going to trade for a non-elite player without time left on their deal, you have to agree to terms at the time of the trade. The reasons are obvious why you'd want to do it in only these ways...
I would love an incentive laden contract, especially with easily attained incentives. But, I don't think there is any way Williams accepts it and I don't blame him. I believe the Giants and him will iron out a deal. I think it will be overpaying for him, but I think he will be a good player for us moving forward. I'm just not sure he will continue to be this good. I will be the first person to admit I am wrong in a year or two if he proves me wrong and do it gladly.
Can you honestly and confidently say you expect and believe Williams will replicate this level of production not once but 3 or more times in the next 5? For me, that is what this boils down to. Based just on this season, yes, the man deserves to be paid. $20M? I don't think so. But, certainly a lot of money and near the top of his position. But, for a 5 year deal, it is different. That is being legitimately one of the top few at your position money. Does one season make that?
I think back to older defenses. In the 80s, if we had the cap, we would have had a similar decision for much better players, in my opinion. You know LT would get paid because he was the greatest player in the history of the league, in my opinion. But, what if we had the cap to worry about. We might have had to let Banks walk earlier than he did...or crippled our team with multiple large deals leaving the rest of the roster with crumbs.
Same thing happened with Armstead, for example. And others.
Again, I have no doubt this season deserves a payday. But, if we give it to him and he doesn't produce like this year multiple times we run the risk of crippling this team's chances of continuing to grow and improve. So, do you fully believe he will continue to earn $18-20M?
My other question is less clear? If we don't re-sign him (I think we will), does that mean we can sign 2 good FAs? Would we sign 1 big name? Nobody? Re-sign Tomlilnson instead? Will we re-sign Tomlinson in addition to Williams? Can we move forward with that much money invested in the DL?
Good thoughts. Team LW have to feel they are in the pole position going into the offseason in terms of first ask.
I'd still let Team LW walk and say thanks for a great year. Just don't feel comfortable with paying for what looks like - finally - a real breakthrough year. If we decide to keep him, I'd FT one more time...
Agree on tag. I absolutely love the season he is having. But, one, I don't trust we will see it again and two, I don't think it is a $20M season.
It's not a breakthrough year though. He's the same damn player. Stats are team dependant, especially for interior pass rushing DL. I imagine we'll be having this same conversation with Saquon next year, when he's magically the only guy in history to set his personal yardage records post injury.
To be 100% clear, so my views are not continued to be misrepresented
My concerns are only about the amount of money and length of deal. As a player, I 100% would like to plan on the next 3-5 seasons with Leonard Williams. He has far exceeded expectations. It is only once you factor in the deal he is likely to get that I think you can question the worth or value or risk.
Again, to be clear, I am NOT saying he is not a good player. I am also NOT saying he can't continue to be a good to very good player. I am NOT even saying he is not a great player based on this year. What I am saying is 2 things. One, he does not have a history of being a great player. Two, because of one, I think it is fair, after 6 seasons, to at least wonder if this year is an aberration or a sign of things to come.
RE: bw - I;d love to hear your answer to my question
If we never traded for him and assuming two things:
1) He remained with the Jets
2) He maintained the same level of play with them (not even elevating to what we got)
What do you think he would have brought in via FA last off season? I honestly think we did him a favor. There is no way he was getting near the tag value based on prior production. We gave him a change of scenery to up his value some. But, without that, is he much more than a $30-40M/3 years guy?
Under that scenario, and hitting the open market, I think Team LW would have been looking at Grady Jarrett as the comp. Jarrett received $68M/4 yrs in the summer of 2019. Around $17 AAV.
Jarrett, IMV, was better at the time. So I could see teams going back to Jurrell Casey's contract a few years back - again, similar players and production - and he got something like $60M/4 yrs. AAV of $15M.
Perhaps Team LW and a team settle on $16M AAV over 4.
I think we did LW a favor AND he did us a favor going into this year. He got the opportunity to really up his game and we got a chance to see in a system that seems to fit him very well.
Now it's going to get very interesting if LW continues his good play down the stretch. If so, the asking price is going to be enormous. Which is what Team LW should do...
I don't know the answer to these questions, but I think they are valid to ask for this level of pay. Is he really a better player or does the contract year factor in? Is he the beneficiary of the coaching/scheme/improved secondary play?
If the question was simply re-sign him, it gets a resounding yes from me. When the question is do we re-sign him at $18-20M for 5 years, I don't say yes. I can understand saying yes. But, I would lean toward no. And, if we say yes, I 100% hope my concerns are all proven to be unfounded by Williams and the faith in him is rewarded.
Stop saying I am criticizing Williams I am not. bw is not. Others who are concerned about a deal like this are not. Nobody dislikes Williams.
Good thoughts. Team LW have to feel they are in the pole position going into the offseason in terms of first ask.
I'd still let Team LW walk and say thanks for a great year. Just don't feel comfortable with paying for what looks like - finally - a real breakthrough year. If we decide to keep him, I'd FT one more time...
Agree on tag. I absolutely love the season he is having. But, one, I don't trust we will see it again and two, I don't think it is a $20M season.
It's not a breakthrough year though. He's the same damn player. Stats are team dependant, especially for interior pass rushing DL. I imagine we'll be having this same conversation with Saquon next year, when he's magically the only guy in history to set his personal yardage records post injury.
LW is on pace to get 12 sacks as DT. That's a big number. So that is a break through year.
RE: For those who disagree, just answer one question
Can you honestly and confidently say you expect and believe Williams will replicate this level of production not once but 3 or more times in the next 5? For me, that is what this boils down to. Based just on this season, yes, the man deserves to be paid. $20M? I don't think so. But, certainly a lot of money and near the top of his position. But, for a 5 year deal, it is different. That is being legitimately one of the top few at your position money. Does one season make that?
I think back to older defenses. In the 80s, if we had the cap, we would have had a similar decision for much better players, in my opinion. You know LT would get paid because he was the greatest player in the history of the league, in my opinion. But, what if we had the cap to worry about. We might have had to let Banks walk earlier than he did...or crippled our team with multiple large deals leaving the rest of the roster with crumbs.
Same thing happened with Armstead, for example. And others.
Again, I have no doubt this season deserves a payday. But, if we give it to him and he doesn't produce like this year multiple times we run the risk of crippling this team's chances of continuing to grow and improve. So, do you fully believe he will continue to earn $18-20M?
My other question is less clear? If we don't re-sign him (I think we will), does that mean we can sign 2 good FAs? Would we sign 1 big name? Nobody? Re-sign Tomlilnson instead? Will we re-sign Tomlinson in addition to Williams? Can we move forward with that much money invested in the DL?
If that's your bar, you'd literally never sign anyone in FA. What cripples the cap is when you sign a guy to big money and he is injuried or the type of play doesn't even come close to producing results that justify it. In fact, if we sign LW to a 5 year contract and his giving you close to the type of play we are seeing now it would have to be one of the bargains of the NFL in 2025. This is actually part of the Cowboys resigning strategy, and while risky, it can pay dividends. They try to sign their guys to deals for as long as possible for the ones worth it. They signed Tyron Smith to a 7 year deal although there is potential that bites them in the ass towards the end, but he's been a bargain for years now.
As far as crippling the cap, obviously you want to use your cap smartly, but I'd remind you of Nate Solder. He's been attrocious and it doesn't seem to be hurting us that much. What hurts the most is signing guys outside what the market is saying and hurt. The only reason the Vernon contract hurt because it was a preposterous contract for what the market dictated and he magically started to get hurt a lot after being very healthy for Dolphins. The market has been dictated here. Cam Heywerd just signed a 16.5 million contract for 4 years and he's over 30. I'd love to see LW sign for about 18 million, and think there's an outside shot here, but if 20 million is what it takes to get it done so be it. After that I start to understand the hesitation more and more.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Not liking the trade was never about Williams
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
No, I thought Hernandez played RG. I never said that about Lemieux and expressly said that is one reason I wanted him at LG. I may have not remembered the article about him and Zeitler correctly, but so far the end result seems to be correct. Get over it.
You def said that "both have experience at RG".... it was def a thing.
But its all good.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Not liking the trade was never about Williams
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
No, I thought Hernandez played RG. I never said that about Lemieux and expressly said that is one reason I wanted him at LG. I may have not remembered the article about him and Zeitler correctly, but so far the end result seems to be correct. Get over it.
You def said that "both have experience at RG".... it was def a thing.
But its all good.
And I wasnt referring to you when pointing out that someone suggested letting LW walk
RE: RE: bw - I;d love to hear your answer to my question
If we never traded for him and assuming two things:
1) He remained with the Jets
2) He maintained the same level of play with them (not even elevating to what we got)
What do you think he would have brought in via FA last off season? I honestly think we did him a favor. There is no way he was getting near the tag value based on prior production. We gave him a change of scenery to up his value some. But, without that, is he much more than a $30-40M/3 years guy?
Under that scenario, and hitting the open market, I think Team LW would have been looking at Grady Jarrett as the comp. Jarrett received $68M/4 yrs in the summer of 2019. Around $17 AAV.
Jarrett, IMV, was better at the time. So I could see teams going back to Jurrell Casey's contract a few years back - again, similar players and production - and he got something like $60M/4 yrs. AAV of $15M.
Perhaps Team LW and a team settle on $16M AAV over 4.
I think we did LW a favor AND he did us a favor going into this year. He got the opportunity to really up his game and we got a chance to see in a system that seems to fit him very well.
Now it's going to get very interesting if LW continues his good play down the stretch. If so, the asking price is going to be enormous. Which is what Team LW should do...
Exactly my take. First of all, I had him valued lower and from the looks of some of the deals being mentioned, too low. I would be very comfortable at $15M. When we get to the atmosphere he is looking to orbit, it concerns me.
I agree 100% with the notion that we did him a favor and he did us a favor. The tag worked out great for both parties. At the very worst, he upped his price and we got his very best for a year. At the best for both parties, we reach an agreement, he gets paid, and we get a very good DL for the next 3-5 years (I won't commit to 5 because you never know when it turns into a potential cap casualty). The only real losing scenario for Giants fans is signing him and he underperforms (or returns to the Jets version of Williams).
Williams is our best player on defense, he's at an indemand position
As far as crippling the cap, obviously you want to use your cap smartly, but I'd remind you of Nate Solder. He's been attrocious and it doesn't seem to be hurting us that much.
Solder opting out cleared up space for Logan Ryan to be on the team, see how that worked out nicely for us?
We've been steaming pile of crap both years we had his money on the books. He wasn't the only reason for that but this point makes zero sense.
A lot of people survive car accidents, doesn't mean you should point that out and drive sloppily.
BW...your missing the point. He's the same player, he's putting up
sacks because of the team and scheme around him. We now have 4 guys that consistently get decent push across the line and stay disciplined and a backend that covers well. He isn't playing edge where an explosive pass rush can produce sacks on its own and even those guys need to rely on their interior to help to get the most sacks they possible can. Not saying you don't, but this is why football can be tough to talk about with people that don't understand the game from an x's and o's and strategic standpoint. Stats are as much team as they are individual. Plenty of guys put up stats because of being in good situations and plenty don't when they are in shitty situations. It's why people went apoplectic when the Giants drafted DJ, it's why people questioned the Josh Allen when he came into league because of his completion percentage. Everything is so reliant on the other 11 guys around you.
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
No, I thought Hernandez played RG. I never said that about Lemieux and expressly said that is one reason I wanted him at LG. I may have not remembered the article about him and Zeitler correctly, but so far the end result seems to be correct. Get over it.
You def said that "both have experience at RG".... it was def a thing.
But its all good.
And I wasnt referring to you when pointing out that someone suggested letting LW walk
I never said they both had experience at RG. I explicity said Hernandez played RG in college and I was wrong. I don't continue to say that, as you suggest. From day one after the draft, I said I was intrigued about Lemieux at LG for the sole reason that is where he played and dominated in college.
The thing with Hernandez stemmed from an article centered around Zeitler from last year. If I remember correctly (I guess that is a question now), the writer suggested Zeitler played multiple positions for Buffalo, but played his best at LG. I thought I read that Hernandez played RG in college, so it would have made sense to move him to RG and play Zeitler at LG. I gotn that part wrong.
But, I never said anything about Lemieux at RG. I am 100% certain of that. I was also never interested in him at RG.
As for the future at RG, I think it is an interesting question. I think Zeitler the last few weeks has played better and might be the better of the two with Hernandez, However, I think being a little older and with his salary he is more likely to be gone as a cap casulty. So, do you proceed, at least on paper before FA and draft with Hernandez as the RG, do you get rid of both, or do you bring someone in for an open competition?
RE: For those who disagree, just answer one question
Can you honestly and confidently say you expect and believe Williams will replicate this level of production not once but 3 or more times in the next 5?
I would say chances are he goes back to being the player that he was before this season - players have their peak or career years. And that isn't a bad thing, esp if we do find that ER in the draft.......but money is an issue.
I am not under the impression he's finally figured it out. Guy's a hard worker, never misses a game, and things are falling right for him 2020.
However, you can make the case he's playing with better players and scheme, and this level of play is the new norm or close to it.
This will be a tough decision for DG (or whoever) & company.......
hard to look good if the people around you aren't.
But if you don't notice the higher frequency this year of LW beating and sometimes even abusing people in 1 on 1 matchups, we aren't watching the same games.
RE: RE: RE: bw - I;d love to hear your answer to my question
If we never traded for him and assuming two things:
1) He remained with the Jets
2) He maintained the same level of play with them (not even elevating to what we got)
What do you think he would have brought in via FA last off season? I honestly think we did him a favor. There is no way he was getting near the tag value based on prior production. We gave him a change of scenery to up his value some. But, without that, is he much more than a $30-40M/3 years guy?
Under that scenario, and hitting the open market, I think Team LW would have been looking at Grady Jarrett as the comp. Jarrett received $68M/4 yrs in the summer of 2019. Around $17 AAV.
Jarrett, IMV, was better at the time. So I could see teams going back to Jurrell Casey's contract a few years back - again, similar players and production - and he got something like $60M/4 yrs. AAV of $15M.
Perhaps Team LW and a team settle on $16M AAV over 4.
I think we did LW a favor AND he did us a favor going into this year. He got the opportunity to really up his game and we got a chance to see in a system that seems to fit him very well.
Now it's going to get very interesting if LW continues his good play down the stretch. If so, the asking price is going to be enormous. Which is what Team LW should do...
Exactly my take. First of all, I had him valued lower and from the looks of some of the deals being mentioned, too low. I would be very comfortable at $15M. When we get to the atmosphere he is looking to orbit, it concerns me.
I agree 100% with the notion that we did him a favor and he did us a favor. The tag worked out great for both parties. At the very worst, he upped his price and we got his very best for a year. At the best for both parties, we reach an agreement, he gets paid, and we get a very good DL for the next 3-5 years (I won't commit to 5 because you never know when it turns into a potential cap casualty). The only real losing scenario for Giants fans is signing him and he underperforms (or returns to the Jets version of Williams).
If the ask was $15M/year, Williams would have already been signed last spring.
RE: RE: RE: Not liking the trade was never about Williams
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
They refer to themselves as "chopperhatch".
I have no idea why anyone thinks the Giants would be better
We finally have an extremely stout young D-Line that plays excellent together and which is led by LW, and yet you have members posting the weakest arguments to not sign this guy. It's the same individuals who have ragged the deal from the start and IMO their egos can't handle the fact they were wrong and just double down in here.
So now the argument to incest a large chunk of the cap on Williams
is Solder sucks and he has a big contract? First of all, the only reason his contract isn't killing us is he elected not to play this year due to COVID. Otherwise, he would likely be our LT (ugh) and his salary would prohibit us from making one or more deals we made to shore up the D in response to injuries and other circumstances.
Second, we paid him like a top 5 OL. He has been a mediocre LT, at best. That has absolutely been debilitating. It forced us to spend a premium pick on another LT. It forced us to play a shitty LT because of his salary. It eats up a lot of cap space. The bad side is, and I am not sure of this, but opting out extends his deal by a year, which means we will have his salary back on the books next year, because we wouldn';t cut him until the following year.
I'll admit I'm surprised that Williams had this kind of a ceiling. I guess there's something to be said for a change of scenery, particularly given how dysfunctional the Jets organization is and has been.
That said, the argument can still be made that it would have been more beneficial to pursue Williams in free agency rather than sacrificing draft picks to acquire him.
Assuming the market for him would have been limited given his pedestrian Jets resume, he could currently be playing in year one of a 3-4 year deal at something like $13-14 million per. Instead, he's playing on the franchise tag, and looking at a huge payday in the offseason.
All that said, he's been much better than I anticipated.
I think I have whiplash from the abrupt shift in opinion from the "leonard williams is overpaid" crew. Just a few weeks ago he wasn't worth the $16m tag now the NYG made a mistake by not paying him more?
Should they have paid him whatever he wanted and ignored their option to simply tag him and pay $16m this year?
Should they ignore that option again next year if LW says he wants Aaron Donald money?
It's not hypocrisy nor a change in opinion to question why he isn't signed to an extended contract. It is part and parcel to spending value to pursuing him on a losing team and then not completing the deal. This is the GM's vision and presumably plan...go execute it as the price is only going up, right?
The Giants played it like this with the FT because they were skeptical too and there is no other way to slice it. Which leads to the other relevant point of what were they expecting when they traded for him? What was their plan?
My god is this a horrendous take. I don't know if it's intellectual dishonesty or gettleman dysmorphia but this has got to be the stupidest take du jour.
To answer your question about what their plan was - it seems simple to me because they commented publicly at each step in the process. They acquired a player they believed in, attempted to sign him to a long term contract, and in absence of an agreement with the player fell back on the option pay him as a top 5 player at his position.
They will likely negotiate with him again this offseason, and tag him again if they can't come to an agreement.
Unless you think the better negotiating style is giving players whatever they ask for?
Quote:
I'm actually pointing out the hypocrisy in people saying "See DG was smart he knew he was going to be this player!" if he did actually know that he would have signed him long term is my point.
The Giants played it like this with the FT because they were skeptical too and there is no other way to slice it. Which leads to the other relevant point of what were they expecting when they traded for him? What was their plan?
My god is this a horrendous take. I don't know if it's intellectual dishonesty or gettleman dysmorphia but this has got to be the stupidest take du jour.
To answer your question about what their plan was - it seems simple to me because they commented publicly at each step in the process. They acquired a player they believed in, attempted to sign him to a long term contract, and in absence of an agreement with the player fell back on the option pay him as a top 5 player at his position.
They will likely negotiate with him again this offseason, and tag him again if they can't come to an agreement.
Unless you think the better negotiating style is giving players whatever they ask for?
Keep up the good fight, Eric. Holy smokes these are some bad takes. Some are just never going to admit the Giants had a plan with LW and they are still trying to execute such plan. Doesn’t fit their narrative.
I am saying that there is a reason many teams trade picks and ensure they can agree on a long term deal as the trade is being made, to avoid situations like the one we are in now.
It isn't really a good strategy to trade for a player and franchise them two years in a row, players want long term deals and you strain the relationship with them.
I don't know what is so "horrendous" about the take of it is good to sign a player long term when you trade draft picks for them and do your diligence on what that will take before the deal is completed.
I'd still let Team LW walk and say thanks for a great year. Just don't feel comfortable with paying for what looks like - finally - a real breakthrough year. If we decide to keep him, I'd FT one more time...
Quote:
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
As for Williams, the only thing I can say in terms of expectations moving forward is he isn't the typical FA coming out of nowhere in a contract year. He has had some success before, even if moderate. But, more importantly, all year long he is double and even triple teamed. So, it's not like a typical DL that has a big year in large part because he is defended 1 on 1 or benefits from another great DL alongside him and then when he gets the payday and the attention of OLs he disappears. That isn't an issue here. But, I still can't be certain he will maintain a level of production even close to this.
I am just happy we found Williams.
I am saying that there is a reason many teams trade picks and ensure they can agree on a long term deal as the trade is being made, to avoid situations like the one we are in now.
It isn't really a good strategy to trade for a player and franchise them two years in a row, players want long term deals and you strain the relationship with them.
I don't know what is so "horrendous" about the take of it is good to sign a player long term when you trade draft picks for them and do your diligence on what that will take before the deal is completed.
The bad take was saying it was a mistake that they didn't extend him when they clearly wanted and tried to do. They can't make the player say yes.
The horrendous take is saying that despite all evidence to the contrary, they didn't believe in the player because they couldn't agree to a contract.
Ideally he would have resigned reasonably. Nobody would disagree with that opinion. Ideally they wouldn't have had to trade for him. Nobody would disagree with that one either. But we live in the world we have not always the world we want. If they didn't trade for him someone else was going to. And if Leonard Williams wanted to hold out to be paid more than was offered he had that right.
By trading for him the NYG got his rights and correctly exercised the tag - especially given the fact that they had a new coaching staff implementing a new scheme. There was zero downside in paying the player LESS than he wanted and should they choose to they can do it again next year.
The Giants invested draft capital in Williams, and I'm sure before they did that they had a discussion about an extension.
Williams didn't feel like half a season on another shitty team was a good representation of his value, so the Giants franchised him and he essentially has a one year "prove your worth it" year.
Now, Williams has proved it and he and the Giants return to the table. But the Giants are not without options. They still have the threat of tagging him again, which starts the process over, and it's not without risk to Williams. He could get injured. Or, he could lose leverage with a sub par to this year performance. There are a lot of unknowns if the Giants tag him again.
So what will likely happen is that both sides will return to the table again and a deal will get done that benefits both sides, that started in good faith last year.
For us, he played well and was better than the rest of our DL. But, what was that really saying last year? He had no sacks and not a lot of tackles. Yes, I know he got some pressures and just misses. That isn't a $20M player.
Even with 2016 in mind, this is the first season Williams can be called outstanding and/or having lived up to his draft day expectations.
The Giants invested draft capital in Williams, and I'm sure before they did that they had a discussion about an extension.
Williams didn't feel like half a season on another shitty team was a good representation of his value, so the Giants franchised him and he essentially has a one year "prove your worth it" year.
Now, Williams has proved it and he and the Giants return to the table. But the Giants are not without options. They still have the threat of tagging him again, which starts the process over, and it's not without risk to Williams. He could get injured. Or, he could lose leverage with a sub par to this year performance. There are a lot of unknowns if the Giants tag him again.
So what will likely happen is that both sides will return to the table again and a deal will get done that benefits both sides, that started in good faith last year.
Quote:
it's a good thing that DG and the Giants saw this talent and potential in Williams while others did not. We got him while others were sleeping. Worrying about the contract at this point seems ridiculous to me. He's going to get paid and he's worth every penny.
I am just happy we found Williams.
I just don't see how you can say he is worth every penny. He wants Donald money, but isn't Donald. And he has not consistent track record of this play to be able to expect it. Even looking just at this season, I can't see committing $20M per for 5 years. That could be a debilitating contract moving forward.
a) Donald makes 22.5m per year
b) he has never said he wants Donald money (Ralph V. reported him wanting 18-20m when they were negotiating)
I do think after this year he is going to be looking at close to Jones/Buckner money, and he probably has a very good case to get it. But even those deals are a little deceiving relative to Donald - the amount of guaranteed money he received was about $30m higher than both. Christian did a good breakdown of the Buckner contract on one of the other recent LW threads.
I don't really expect him to be reasonable but to me Judge this coaching staff is the X-factor. When people talked about LW liking NY and signing for a discount I was very skeptical but I could see people wanting to play for this coaching staff and taking a discount for sure. You can't exactly give DG credit for this though as when he made the trade people pretty much universally were panning our DC and HC. That is actually another issue I had with the trade, sending a player into a lame duck coaching situation isn't exactly the best way to create a fond image of the team.
I'd be fine with him at $18M and not at $20M it's really as simple as that. Some people might say you don't want to lose one of your best players over $2M but building a team is more than saying is this player good or bad.
1) He remained with the Jets
2) He maintained the same level of play with them (not even elevating to what we got)
What do you think he would have brought in via FA last off season? I honestly think we did him a favor. There is no way he was getting near the tag value based on prior production. We gave him a change of scenery to up his value some. But, without that, is he much more than a $30-40M/3 years guy?
In that case, the Giants are seeing his price tag go up this year based on his performance.
On the other hand, one must consider that LW will decide that the largest contract is NOT what he cares about the most. After ending up on the Jets, he may know full well that he doesn't want to play for a loser organization no matter what. He just might decide he wants to play for an organization that he believes will give him a chance to win, as long as the offer makes him wealthy.
Having said that, perhaps the Giants recent play is working in their favor in terms of reaching a long-term agreement with LW. He seems quite happy with the organization. Check out these quotes from last night:
With him saying things like this, is it possible that he no longer will hold out for the highest dollar contract possible before signing a long-term deal? Could it be that he will sign a reasonable extension (obviously highly paid) rather than hitting free agency to max out his contract?
The Giants invested draft capital in Williams, and I'm sure before they did that they had a discussion about an extension.
Williams didn't feel like half a season on another shitty team was a good representation of his value, so the Giants franchised him and he essentially has a one year "prove your worth it" year.
Now, Williams has proved it and he and the Giants return to the table. But the Giants are not without options. They still have the threat of tagging him again, which starts the process over, and it's not without risk to Williams. He could get injured. Or, he could lose leverage with a sub par to this year performance. There are a lot of unknowns if the Giants tag him again.
So what will likely happen is that both sides will return to the table again and a deal will get done that benefits both sides, that started in good faith last year.
Agree Britt. I suspect he will get a deal very similar to the Jones/Buckner deals signed last year. Jones got 4x80m w/ 37m gtd at signing, Buckner got 4x84m w/ 39m gtd at signing.
I'd imagine last offseason the NYG offer was more in the 16/17m AAV (4x60m-70m) range and LW thought he may as well just play the year on the 16m tag and try to increase his value to the 18-20m range.
Fletcher Cox is maybe a better comp and his contract is $17mm AAPY. Cox has a $24mm hit in 2021 (my god, the Eagles are screwed - it's glorious).
On the other hand, it is a legitimate argument from him to say we both bet on me this year with the tag. I delivered, now you must. In that regard, the tag worked as intended for both. The Giants got the production they wanted and Williams backed up his request. Now, I think the Giants will feel pressured to re-sign him and will overpay. We can only hope collectively that he plays somewhere near this level, especially with the prospect of Graham being gone.
I'd also go further to say that I wouldn't mind the 2nd year of the franchise tag if I had confidence it wouldn't create issues for him. (I think it likely would)
I wouldn't say the draft picks are worth two years though, and that is where I think a cohesive strategy to win is very important.
These days increasingly in the NFL it is very hard to sustain success and you have to kind of line up your assets. That 3rd and 4th round pick we traded for him had the opportunity to add value to teams more in our likely competition window. And to me that's where the draft pick thing is important. In the end, it looks like we will sign him to the kind of overpay deal that players on the open market sign and players of his caliber are available at every offseason for the overpay.
IMO you should only trade picks for a player who you have locked in at a good price, especially without the cap hit of the bonus or A+ premium players like Ramsey that are never going to hit FA. And IF you are going to trade for a non-elite player without time left on their deal, you have to agree to terms at the time of the trade. The reasons are obvious why you'd want to do it in only these ways...
Quote:
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
Correct.
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In comment 15069990 Matt M. said:
Quote:
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
I'd also go further to say that I wouldn't mind the 2nd year of the franchise tag if I had confidence it wouldn't create issues for him. (I think it likely would)
I wouldn't say the draft picks are worth two years though, and that is where I think a cohesive strategy to win is very important.
These days increasingly in the NFL it is very hard to sustain success and you have to kind of line up your assets. That 3rd and 4th round pick we traded for him had the opportunity to add value to teams more in our likely competition window. And to me that's where the draft pick thing is important. In the end, it looks like we will sign him to the kind of overpay deal that players on the open market sign and players of his caliber are available at every offseason for the overpay.
IMO you should only trade picks for a player who you have locked in at a good price, especially without the cap hit of the bonus or A+ premium players like Ramsey that are never going to hit FA. And IF you are going to trade for a non-elite player without time left on their deal, you have to agree to terms at the time of the trade. The reasons are obvious why you'd want to do it in only these ways...
I think back to older defenses. In the 80s, if we had the cap, we would have had a similar decision for much better players, in my opinion. You know LT would get paid because he was the greatest player in the history of the league, in my opinion. But, what if we had the cap to worry about. We might have had to let Banks walk earlier than he did...or crippled our team with multiple large deals leaving the rest of the roster with crumbs.
Same thing happened with Armstead, for example. And others.
Again, I have no doubt this season deserves a payday. But, if we give it to him and he doesn't produce like this year multiple times we run the risk of crippling this team's chances of continuing to grow and improve. So, do you fully believe he will continue to earn $18-20M?
My other question is less clear? If we don't re-sign him (I think we will), does that mean we can sign 2 good FAs? Would we sign 1 big name? Nobody? Re-sign Tomlilnson instead? Will we re-sign Tomlinson in addition to Williams? Can we move forward with that much money invested in the DL?
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Good thoughts. Team LW have to feel they are in the pole position going into the offseason in terms of first ask.
I'd still let Team LW walk and say thanks for a great year. Just don't feel comfortable with paying for what looks like - finally - a real breakthrough year. If we decide to keep him, I'd FT one more time...
Agree on tag. I absolutely love the season he is having. But, one, I don't trust we will see it again and two, I don't think it is a $20M season.
It's not a breakthrough year though. He's the same damn player. Stats are team dependant, especially for interior pass rushing DL. I imagine we'll be having this same conversation with Saquon next year, when he's magically the only guy in history to set his personal yardage records post injury.
Again, to be clear, I am NOT saying he is not a good player. I am also NOT saying he can't continue to be a good to very good player. I am NOT even saying he is not a great player based on this year. What I am saying is 2 things. One, he does not have a history of being a great player. Two, because of one, I think it is fair, after 6 seasons, to at least wonder if this year is an aberration or a sign of things to come.
1) He remained with the Jets
2) He maintained the same level of play with them (not even elevating to what we got)
What do you think he would have brought in via FA last off season? I honestly think we did him a favor. There is no way he was getting near the tag value based on prior production. We gave him a change of scenery to up his value some. But, without that, is he much more than a $30-40M/3 years guy?
Under that scenario, and hitting the open market, I think Team LW would have been looking at Grady Jarrett as the comp. Jarrett received $68M/4 yrs in the summer of 2019. Around $17 AAV.
Jarrett, IMV, was better at the time. So I could see teams going back to Jurrell Casey's contract a few years back - again, similar players and production - and he got something like $60M/4 yrs. AAV of $15M.
Perhaps Team LW and a team settle on $16M AAV over 4.
I think we did LW a favor AND he did us a favor going into this year. He got the opportunity to really up his game and we got a chance to see in a system that seems to fit him very well.
Now it's going to get very interesting if LW continues his good play down the stretch. If so, the asking price is going to be enormous. Which is what Team LW should do...
If the question was simply re-sign him, it gets a resounding yes from me. When the question is do we re-sign him at $18-20M for 5 years, I don't say yes. I can understand saying yes. But, I would lean toward no. And, if we say yes, I 100% hope my concerns are all proven to be unfounded by Williams and the faith in him is rewarded.
Stop saying I am criticizing Williams I am not. bw is not. Others who are concerned about a deal like this are not. Nobody dislikes Williams.
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In comment 15071061 bw in dc said:
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Good thoughts. Team LW have to feel they are in the pole position going into the offseason in terms of first ask.
I'd still let Team LW walk and say thanks for a great year. Just don't feel comfortable with paying for what looks like - finally - a real breakthrough year. If we decide to keep him, I'd FT one more time...
Agree on tag. I absolutely love the season he is having. But, one, I don't trust we will see it again and two, I don't think it is a $20M season.
It's not a breakthrough year though. He's the same damn player. Stats are team dependant, especially for interior pass rushing DL. I imagine we'll be having this same conversation with Saquon next year, when he's magically the only guy in history to set his personal yardage records post injury.
LW is on pace to get 12 sacks as DT. That's a big number. So that is a break through year.
I think back to older defenses. In the 80s, if we had the cap, we would have had a similar decision for much better players, in my opinion. You know LT would get paid because he was the greatest player in the history of the league, in my opinion. But, what if we had the cap to worry about. We might have had to let Banks walk earlier than he did...or crippled our team with multiple large deals leaving the rest of the roster with crumbs.
Same thing happened with Armstead, for example. And others.
Again, I have no doubt this season deserves a payday. But, if we give it to him and he doesn't produce like this year multiple times we run the risk of crippling this team's chances of continuing to grow and improve. So, do you fully believe he will continue to earn $18-20M?
My other question is less clear? If we don't re-sign him (I think we will), does that mean we can sign 2 good FAs? Would we sign 1 big name? Nobody? Re-sign Tomlilnson instead? Will we re-sign Tomlinson in addition to Williams? Can we move forward with that much money invested in the DL?
If that's your bar, you'd literally never sign anyone in FA. What cripples the cap is when you sign a guy to big money and he is injuried or the type of play doesn't even come close to producing results that justify it. In fact, if we sign LW to a 5 year contract and his giving you close to the type of play we are seeing now it would have to be one of the bargains of the NFL in 2025. This is actually part of the Cowboys resigning strategy, and while risky, it can pay dividends. They try to sign their guys to deals for as long as possible for the ones worth it. They signed Tyron Smith to a 7 year deal although there is potential that bites them in the ass towards the end, but he's been a bargain for years now.
As far as crippling the cap, obviously you want to use your cap smartly, but I'd remind you of Nate Solder. He's been attrocious and it doesn't seem to be hurting us that much. What hurts the most is signing guys outside what the market is saying and hurt. The only reason the Vernon contract hurt because it was a preposterous contract for what the market dictated and he magically started to get hurt a lot after being very healthy for Dolphins. The market has been dictated here. Cam Heywerd just signed a 16.5 million contract for 4 years and he's over 30. I'd love to see LW sign for about 18 million, and think there's an outside shot here, but if 20 million is what it takes to get it done so be it. After that I start to understand the hesitation more and more.
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In comment 15070480 bw in dc said:
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In comment 15069990 Matt M. said:
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Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
No, I thought Hernandez played RG. I never said that about Lemieux and expressly said that is one reason I wanted him at LG. I may have not remembered the article about him and Zeitler correctly, but so far the end result seems to be correct. Get over it.
You def said that "both have experience at RG".... it was def a thing.
But its all good.
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In comment 15071304 chopperhatch said:
Quote:
In comment 15070480 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15069990 Matt M. said:
Quote:
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
No, I thought Hernandez played RG. I never said that about Lemieux and expressly said that is one reason I wanted him at LG. I may have not remembered the article about him and Zeitler correctly, but so far the end result seems to be correct. Get over it.
You def said that "both have experience at RG".... it was def a thing.
But its all good.
And I wasnt referring to you when pointing out that someone suggested letting LW walk
Quote:
If we never traded for him and assuming two things:
1) He remained with the Jets
2) He maintained the same level of play with them (not even elevating to what we got)
What do you think he would have brought in via FA last off season? I honestly think we did him a favor. There is no way he was getting near the tag value based on prior production. We gave him a change of scenery to up his value some. But, without that, is he much more than a $30-40M/3 years guy?
Under that scenario, and hitting the open market, I think Team LW would have been looking at Grady Jarrett as the comp. Jarrett received $68M/4 yrs in the summer of 2019. Around $17 AAV.
Jarrett, IMV, was better at the time. So I could see teams going back to Jurrell Casey's contract a few years back - again, similar players and production - and he got something like $60M/4 yrs. AAV of $15M.
Perhaps Team LW and a team settle on $16M AAV over 4.
I think we did LW a favor AND he did us a favor going into this year. He got the opportunity to really up his game and we got a chance to see in a system that seems to fit him very well.
Now it's going to get very interesting if LW continues his good play down the stretch. If so, the asking price is going to be enormous. Which is what Team LW should do...
I agree 100% with the notion that we did him a favor and he did us a favor. The tag worked out great for both parties. At the very worst, he upped his price and we got his very best for a year. At the best for both parties, we reach an agreement, he gets paid, and we get a very good DL for the next 3-5 years (I won't commit to 5 because you never know when it turns into a potential cap casualty). The only real losing scenario for Giants fans is signing him and he underperforms (or returns to the Jets version of Williams).
Solder opting out cleared up space for Logan Ryan to be on the team, see how that worked out nicely for us?
We've been steaming pile of crap both years we had his money on the books. He wasn't the only reason for that but this point makes zero sense.
A lot of people survive car accidents, doesn't mean you should point that out and drive sloppily.
And he is playing this perfectly on and off the field. Notice how he is being quoted weekly now on buying into the Judge-system.
Will say it again, looking forward to the extended market contract he signs for the Giants.
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In comment 15071332 Matt M. said:
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In comment 15071304 chopperhatch said:
Quote:
In comment 15070480 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15069990 Matt M. said:
Quote:
Not at the time of the trade, not when sticking him with the tag, and not when looking at his impending FA and/or potential tag again. Most, if not all, liked Williams as an interesting player when we got him and felt he played better for us last year than he was playing with the Jets. I think they made the right call with the tag this year because it gave them the chance to really evaluate him before committing fully. I don't think anyone expected play at this level, which makes it a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
The Giants are not good enough as a team to overcome giving him the big contract and him not continuing to play at a high level, because it will hinder their ability to add more FA. Now, if he plays like this for two or 3 more seasons, then it's a great deal. If he plays like last year or like he did, even at his best, with the Jets, then that deal kills them. That is where my resrvation comes from. A lot of you are asking the Giants to pay him like an elite player, which he never was before this year, and I'm not 100% sure he is right now. He is playing at a very high level, no doubt. But, is he Aaron Donald or even close? I don't think you can say that. Even if you believe he is, are you very confident you will be saying the same thing at this point next year?
Very good post here.
These break out moments for any player are always hard to measure going forward, especially when it's time to pay.
Can you count on the same productivity - after the break out performance - going forward? It's a really hard sell to me. I'd rather pay big dollars to the player who has demonstrated high level consistency because at least there is a pattern. That's not to say LW may not be ready to get into a enter that pattern, but it's a huge question mark.
So I'm still saying let LW walk and trust Graham's system going forward.
Which begs the question - what's more important going forward? Keeping LW? Or keeping Graham?
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
No, I thought Hernandez played RG. I never said that about Lemieux and expressly said that is one reason I wanted him at LG. I may have not remembered the article about him and Zeitler correctly, but so far the end result seems to be correct. Get over it.
You def said that "both have experience at RG".... it was def a thing.
But its all good.
And I wasnt referring to you when pointing out that someone suggested letting LW walk
The thing with Hernandez stemmed from an article centered around Zeitler from last year. If I remember correctly (I guess that is a question now), the writer suggested Zeitler played multiple positions for Buffalo, but played his best at LG. I thought I read that Hernandez played RG in college, so it would have made sense to move him to RG and play Zeitler at LG. I gotn that part wrong.
But, I never said anything about Lemieux at RG. I am 100% certain of that. I was also never interested in him at RG.
As for the future at RG, I think it is an interesting question. I think Zeitler the last few weeks has played better and might be the better of the two with Hernandez, However, I think being a little older and with his salary he is more likely to be gone as a cap casulty. So, do you proceed, at least on paper before FA and draft with Hernandez as the RG, do you get rid of both, or do you bring someone in for an open competition?
I would say chances are he goes back to being the player that he was before this season - players have their peak or career years. And that isn't a bad thing, esp if we do find that ER in the draft.......but money is an issue.
I am not under the impression he's finally figured it out. Guy's a hard worker, never misses a game, and things are falling right for him 2020.
However, you can make the case he's playing with better players and scheme, and this level of play is the new norm or close to it.
This will be a tough decision for DG (or whoever) & company.......
But if you don't notice the higher frequency this year of LW beating and sometimes even abusing people in 1 on 1 matchups, we aren't watching the same games.
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In comment 15071232 Matt M. said:
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If we never traded for him and assuming two things:
1) He remained with the Jets
2) He maintained the same level of play with them (not even elevating to what we got)
What do you think he would have brought in via FA last off season? I honestly think we did him a favor. There is no way he was getting near the tag value based on prior production. We gave him a change of scenery to up his value some. But, without that, is he much more than a $30-40M/3 years guy?
Under that scenario, and hitting the open market, I think Team LW would have been looking at Grady Jarrett as the comp. Jarrett received $68M/4 yrs in the summer of 2019. Around $17 AAV.
Jarrett, IMV, was better at the time. So I could see teams going back to Jurrell Casey's contract a few years back - again, similar players and production - and he got something like $60M/4 yrs. AAV of $15M.
Perhaps Team LW and a team settle on $16M AAV over 4.
I think we did LW a favor AND he did us a favor going into this year. He got the opportunity to really up his game and we got a chance to see in a system that seems to fit him very well.
Now it's going to get very interesting if LW continues his good play down the stretch. If so, the asking price is going to be enormous. Which is what Team LW should do...
Exactly my take. First of all, I had him valued lower and from the looks of some of the deals being mentioned, too low. I would be very comfortable at $15M. When we get to the atmosphere he is looking to orbit, it concerns me.
I agree 100% with the notion that we did him a favor and he did us a favor. The tag worked out great for both parties. At the very worst, he upped his price and we got his very best for a year. At the best for both parties, we reach an agreement, he gets paid, and we get a very good DL for the next 3-5 years (I won't commit to 5 because you never know when it turns into a potential cap casualty). The only real losing scenario for Giants fans is signing him and he underperforms (or returns to the Jets version of Williams).
If the ask was $15M/year, Williams would have already been signed last spring.
What in the actual fuck?????
Holy shit.
We have one poster who continues to think that Will Hernandez and Shane Lemieux played RG in college (hint: neither ever did). We have another poster who thinks himself a football oracle (when asked for the stud receivers that UGA recruited, he brought up Mecole Hardman....with a straight face and condescending tone).
You two are criticizing our very best player and also offering nothing in defense of the fact that it takes quite a while for D Linemen to "get it".
The worst is poster 2 defending letting go of the best player on the D line that sacked Russell Wilson 3 times yesterdaY because he is in a contract year.
Literally cant make this up. How did that work out when we let Cornelius Griffin walk? How about Linval?
What happens when the posters who think they are the smartest say the dumbest shit?
They refer to themselves as "chopperhatch".
We finally have an extremely stout young D-Line that plays excellent together and which is led by LW, and yet you have members posting the weakest arguments to not sign this guy. It's the same individuals who have ragged the deal from the start and IMO their egos can't handle the fact they were wrong and just double down in here.
Second, we paid him like a top 5 OL. He has been a mediocre LT, at best. That has absolutely been debilitating. It forced us to spend a premium pick on another LT. It forced us to play a shitty LT because of his salary. It eats up a lot of cap space. The bad side is, and I am not sure of this, but opting out extends his deal by a year, which means we will have his salary back on the books next year, because we wouldn';t cut him until the following year.
That said, the argument can still be made that it would have been more beneficial to pursue Williams in free agency rather than sacrificing draft picks to acquire him.
Assuming the market for him would have been limited given his pedestrian Jets resume, he could currently be playing in year one of a 3-4 year deal at something like $13-14 million per. Instead, he's playing on the franchise tag, and looking at a huge payday in the offseason.
All that said, he's been much better than I anticipated.