COVID Impact on Home-Field Advantage?

remaining in your home/residential bubble, HF advantage is non-existent. Hard to imagine, Seattle, for example, with their huge HF advantage, losing to the Rams, imo

would be more stark for the viewer if they didn't pipe in the crowd noise.

For the guys on the field, they make a big play and there's no response.

In comment 15118333 Big Blue '56 said:

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remaining in your home/residential bubble, HF advantage is non-existent.

I'd say weather can also be one - if the Saints have to go to Green Bay, I don't think they have a prayer.

to make any definitive statements about home field advantage without fans.

In comment 15118346 Greg from LI said:

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In comment 15118333 Big Blue '56 said: Quote: remaining in your home/residential bubble, HF advantage is non-existent. I'd say weather can also be one - if the Saints have to go to Green Bay, I don't think they have a prayer.

Agreed

Tampa Bay was a 10 pt favorite over the WFT.

The Ravens have been really hot while the Steelers finished 1-4.

With those factors and such a small sample size (6 games) I wouldn't be too quick to say it was due to Covid.

In comment 15118350 BamaBlue said:

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to make any definitive statements about home field advantage without fans.

Merely opinions..No way of knowing for CERTAIN

In comment 15118350 BamaBlue said:

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to make any definitive statements about home field advantage without fans.

It can be coincidence, but again - this weekend was the first time where more home teams lost than won.

suck in many ways ... But I always thought the bigger advantage in the playoffs was the bye week. I’ll be very surprised if KC and GB don’t win this week.

Home field advantage has been decreasing in the NFL over the past decade. Each year it has crept closer and closer to .500 W/L percentage. Last year it was 52%, this year it was lower which was aided in part by Covid but I think teams have figured out travel and getting their teams prepared. Not sure what the final win % was for 2020.

NFL teams are so prepared for every situation that in reality, I think home field is coming close to being a non-factor in the next 5 or so years. At this point, I think its not about home field advantage but the quality of the teams.

only possible advantages . Seattle and Pittsburgh are oppressive environments for visiting teams . But it looks like the Rams have figured out Russell & Big Ben threw some very lame passes last night .

advantage isn't dying in the playoffs though at least not prior to this season. But the point there is - the home team is the better team and thus favored

Playoffs without the crowds .... are very lame.

The way Seattle actually played they were not winning with fans - they looked over matched

Pitt just made horrific plays to be down that much that early and their D was getting gashed. Would fans have made a difference when you are down 28 12 minutes into the game

Bal-TN you could probably split games with each of them winning on the road

I don't think anyone thought Tampa would lose on the road fans or not

ripe for picking off. I think it was probably a factor in Seattle game.

They would have won with or without fans

Some of the coaching on display this weekend was abysmal. Seattle and Pittsburgh in particular looked like they learned who their opponent was five minutes before the game.

of the equation, so that means road dogs went 2-2. Seattle and Pitt looked they just expected their opponents to roll over and die based on past results.

I do think that COVID has negated home field to some degree, Away Dogs have covered like 56% of the time this year which is very high. Home Favorites are 44% of the time.

regular season was flipped too:

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The NFL has changed through the years, but one thing that remained constant was the perceived advantage a team enjoyed at home. From 2002, the year the league expanded to 32 franchises, to 2019, teams won nearly 57 percent of their home games. This year, that percentage was down significantly. 2020 was the first time home teams won less than 50% of their games and it was also the lowest win rate since the expansion.

In comment 15119016 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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regular season was flipped too: Quote: The NFL has changed through the years, but one thing that remained constant was the perceived advantage a team enjoyed at home. From 2002, the year the league expanded to 32 franchises, to 2019, teams won nearly 57 percent of their home games. This year, that percentage was down significantly. 2020 was the first time home teams won less than 50% of their games and it was also the lowest win rate since the expansion.

I’d be curious what the analytics are going to say about how much the fans affect refs decision making. There’s been a pretty good study I saw that concluded it was but it was based on refs watching and grading the tape in numerous sports in real time. This is going to be a pretty conclusive sample size. Although some of these games had different amount of fans., 500 games is a pretty decent sample size of an apples to apples thing.