I don’t think even the very good TEs make much of a difference in building contending teams. Let me know if you agree. If you don’t, convince me - I have an open mind.
position is really tough to gauge based on a YPG basis - sometimes even by the raw stats at all.
It is all about the effectiveness in the offense. a TE like Mark Andrews is essential to the Baltimore offense because he's in as a blocker the majority of the time, but when he goes out, he's almost assuredly has a mismatch due to the design of the Baltimore offense. There are also designed plays where he is going to be in space against a DE on a misdirection play. His ability to get that big gain feeds off of that and the mismatch.
In the KC offense, you have a deep threat that opens up the underneath routes for Kelce and once he has a step, he's getting additional yards vs. a replacement TE.
Kittle, off of the RPO and play action was not just effective, but the centerpiece of the SF offense.
I'm not sure how we can be living in the Era of guys like Kittle, Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Witten, Graham and Waller, and not see the impact they have.
So what are you getting at here? You don't think a first round pick should be invested in a TE?
To me, controlling the middle of the field is pretty vital for both the defense and the offense. So if you can find a TE who can consistently pressure a safety to cover - and the TE is winning that match-up - the offense then has more opportunities to exploit more space. And that's a big ripple effect.
If that's the argument "We shouldn't invest a 1st rd pick in a TE" - I think there's a valid argument to made there.
If it's the fact that TE don't impact the game at a high level - I don't think there's an argument to had there.
I appreciate the serious arguments about why they are important.
Here's one stat-driven way of looking at it. Let's take Jason Witten, primarily a pass catcher rather than a blocker and generally an excellent TE.
He caught on average 71% of his targets over his career and 7.6 yards per target. That completion percentage is slightly above what a good QB in this period averages. Tony Romo's lifetime completion percentage is 65%, for example. and an average yards per attempt of 7.9 yards. Witten was targeted roughly 120x per season in his prime, so he helped Tony Romo complete maybe 7-8 extra passes over the course of a season vs an average alternative target, with a mild negative in yardage (maybe negative 50 yards over the course of a season).
Let's take a mid-level WR like Terrance Williams, to stick with the same offensive context. Williams, a decent but not exceptional WR, caught 62% of his targets for 9.0 yards per target in his Cowboys career. Williams was targeted less often than Witten, maybe 80-90x per season in the middle 2010s, and passing to him resulted in 3-4 incompletions than Romo's average per season but also added roughly 125-150 yards total in passing yardage.
So which has more impact on the passing offense? A HoF level TE like Witten or a decent starting WR like Williams? The answer isn't obvious to me.
So to get this out of the way: yes, I know there are many things that a TE does that are not statistically measurable, at least easy. And I know my analysis above is simplistic. But the above - which all comes from the same set so it should be comparable - just quantifies my intuition about the TE position.
A Hall of Famer like Witten or an average starting WR? I'd rather have Witten, sure, but they don't have monumental differences in impact.
Hi cosmic,
I think they do have monumental differences, in the sense that those stats alone (as you know and said) are rather simplistic.
In this particular example, Witten was the chain mover, Romo's security blanket and buried us in a lot of games. That 15' season opener where he scored a TD in the last 5 seconds in the game is a good example.
And as a piece of the engine you have to account for a guy like that defensively speaking, which opens up other possibilities for the other skill players (this is actually why I think the Giants insist so much with Engram despite all the bad plays).
On the other hand, I do not remember enough about Terrance Williams to argue here.
Another point is, here we're only talking about receiving abilities, but just to make a point did you see Gronk vs Young in the Wild Card? It was talked about all week that Chase would wreak havoc in that game and he couldn't get to Brady.
In the end of the day as I see it, football is all about matchups and when you have a great, dual-threat TE, it gives you immense advantage in the game.
The blocking is important, but there you're comparing Witten with a replacement level TE blocker. I'm not sure he has any advantage there.
But why not look at the passing game the same way - it's a good point.
Let's compare Witten in 2011, one of his better seasons, vs a totally mediocre backup TE named John Phillips on the Cowboys that season. Phillips was not a pass receiving threat and averaged a measly 5.6 yards per target vs Witten's 8.1. Witten was targeted 117 times that season and caught 79 of them. Let's say the Cowboys had to make do with Phillips and didn't use Witten's playmaking ability in their play design (I know that's a stretch, but this is a simplifying look at this). Philips also hoovered everything thrown at him (he caught 83% of the passes thrown to him vs Witten's 67%) so he's truly a low-threat outlet TE who caught dump-offs. Philips would have generated much less yardage than Witten (411 yards less, which I calculate by the difference between the two players yards per reception (11.9-6.7)*79 yards per target difference) but he also would have caught more balls because he was a dump-off receiver without big play ability. Those additional yards I calculate as 123 yards (18 extra receptions at Philips average yards per catch (not per target) of 6.7). 410 less 123 over the whole season averages to about 18 yards per game.
So you substitute one of the great TEs of recent history for a backup blocking guy who is no threat whatsoever and the difference is 18 yards per game. You can quibble with my analysis - which isn't meant to be comprehensive - and point out out that the two players were used in different ways, which dynamically helped the entire offense, BUT boy is 18 yards not a lot.
The range of numbers backs up my instinct that the TE position isn't a difference maker.
Look, you are losing me altogether now.
First of all, if you now move to compare Witten to a replacement type blocker than the receiving aspect comes back into play and you have to carry two guys versus one. This also signals to defense what is coming. If you suggest you don't need the receiving TE at all, then fine just expect double coverage on Williams and watch what happens to his numbers.
Second, that is not the way to extrapolate. And even if it was then why isn't John Phillips more well known?
I gave it an honest try, but you seem to want to sit at a position of prove me wrong versus staying objective.
So what are you getting at here? You don't think a first round pick should be invested in a TE?
To me, controlling the middle of the field is pretty vital for both the defense and the offense. So if you can find a TE who can consistently pressure a safety to cover - and the TE is winning that match-up - the offense then has more opportunities to exploit more space. And that's a big ripple effect.
If that's the argument "We shouldn't invest a 1st rd pick in a TE" - I think there's a valid argument to made there.
If it's the fact that TE don't impact the game at a high level - I don't think there's an argument to had there.
Good post Dnew. That is where I am. I like a guy like Pitts and think he would be an exciting addition. However, some concern that at #11 I am picking a guy that has an immediate flaw that the Offense has to make up for.
He still might be worth it if the receiving is that important to my scheme. If not, then I might be best served to get an average receiver who can block and maybe find that guy in Rd 2 (or whenever).
To clarify, this post was really about Pitts. I think all the Giants TEs suck and need to be replaced. I hate Engram, simply hate him. So the question is whether a premier talent like Pitts is really the way to move the team forward.
I wasn't clear enough. I first compared a fairly average although capable WR to Witten. Then you pointed the blocking, so I compared Witten with a replacement level TE. Admittedly, the analysis is simplistic, so I was trying to scale things as a first step.
So what are you getting at here? You don't think a first round pick should be invested in a TE?
To me, controlling the middle of the field is pretty vital for both the defense and the offense. So if you can find a TE who can consistently pressure a safety to cover - and the TE is winning that match-up - the offense then has more opportunities to exploit more space. And that's a big ripple effect.
If that's the argument "We shouldn't invest a 1st rd pick in a TE" - I think there's a valid argument to made there.
TE is such a difficult position to evaluate to determine if the skill sets/production will convey from college to pro. You really have to be convinced.
So I go back and forth on that. However, lately, I'm saying yes - the TE position is a premium position to draft in the first round (largely based on what I described earlier).
But then there are layers. Is a top ten investment worth it? Top fifteen? Bottom half of the draft? Etc. I probably think it's an easier sell in the bottom half.
Then a guy like Pitts comes along and it's very easy to see something special there. There is a lot to like. I have never liked Jones throwing the ball outside the numbers. But he does appear to throw a good ball into the seam. And who can really dominate that part of the field? A terrific TE.
I agree with this sentiment. No debate at all from me!
KC - Kelce - 1st on team in receiving
NE - Gronk 4th in receiving missed 5 games
Phil - Ertz - 1st in receiving
NE - Bennett 2nd in team receiving in only 12 starts
DEN - Owen Daniels - 3rd on team
NE - Gronk - 1st on team
For the past 6 SB winners, the TE was 1st on the team in yards. If anything - that might indicate TE's are a significant difference maker
KC - Kelce - 1st on team in receiving
NE - Gronk 4th in receiving missed 5 games
Phil - Ertz - 1st in receiving
NE - Bennett 2nd in team receiving in only 12 starts
DEN - Owen Daniels - 3rd on team
NE - Gronk - 1st on team
For the past 6 SB winners, the TE was 1st on the team in yards. If anything - that might indicate TE's are a significant difference maker
OP never made his own case. Not sure why we are engaging him.
"A Hall of Famer like Witten or an average starting WR? I'd rather have Witten, sure, but they don't have monumental differences in impact."
Two points:
1. The average WR is easy to find.
2. A top TE impacts the way the defense plays.
Impact TE or avg WR? That TE is much harder to find and it makes your team much tougher to defend. You have a TE who can't be covered by TEs it makes it a lot easier for that easy-to-find avg WR to make plays.
Usually that was a benefit to the opponent when he vollyballed a pass in his hands up for a safety to easily run under....but certainly made a difference.
An interesting year to make this argument when guys like Kittle and Ertz were hurt, but yes a solid TE can make a difference, just like about any other skill position. Finding the right role for a key - some guys may be more TD threats, or a LB/S mismatch as a receiver, or a well rounded blocker/clutch catch guy etc. You can argue how much difference maybe, but pretty much any position can have a huge effect if you have the right talent used correctly.
of TEs drafted in the 1st round. I went back as far as I could until I could find one that really seemed like lived up to his draft pick.
2007:
Greg Olsen
2008:
Dustin Keller
2009:
Brandon Pettigrew
2010:
Jermaine Gresham
2011:
none
2012:
none
2013:
Tyler Eifert
2014:
Eric Ebron
2015:
none
2016:
none
2017:
OJ Howard
Evan Engram
David Njoku
2018:
Hayden Hurst
2019:
TJ Hockenson
Noah Fant
2020:
none
THat's 13 years worth of 1st rd TEs.
You guys are going back lilke 40 years to list a handful
That position is much harder to figure out in the draft than QB. So many first round "flops" at that position. Remember Detroit just grabbed a "difference maker" TE in the top 10 and they already had really good WRs. He hasn't made a difference at all.
The TE position is difficult to adjust to in the NFL.
I don't need an undersized TE. I don't need a 4.4.
Give me a big, hard-nosed sumbitch who can block, catch a pass when he's wide open and run over anyone who tries to tackle him. The one athletic play I look for is the ability to get up the seam and make a circus catch, which is why a basketball background intrigues.
You can find these guys in the later rounds, and bargain bin free agency. Mike Pope used to track all the Big 10 TE's and hit when called upon.
I think an overlooked reason why the 49ers was so effective so early
with Kaepernick was because they had the deadly dual TE combo with Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker. Everyone was open that year for him, just like everyone was open for RG3.
Just created so many issues in the run/pass game that for that type of offense was what having stud WRs was to the Greatest Show on Turf, the current KC offense, etc.
Walker left in FA that offseason and that offense was never the same.
New England was creating problems with the two TE offense before the murdered was arrested. Looking back, there weren't many big games the two of them played together at the same time.
The issues with TEs is that not only are there less of them on team rosters, but finding good let alone great ones are pretty rare.
I appreciate the serious arguments about why they are important.
Here's one stat-driven way of looking at it. Let's take Jason Witten, primarily a pass catcher rather than a blocker and generally an excellent TE.
He caught on average 71% of his targets over his career and 7.6 yards per target. That completion percentage is slightly above what a good QB in this period averages. Tony Romo's lifetime completion percentage is 65%, for example. and an average yards per attempt of 7.9 yards. Witten was targeted roughly 120x per season in his prime, so he helped Tony Romo complete maybe 7-8 extra passes over the course of a season vs an average alternative target, with a mild negative in yardage (maybe negative 50 yards over the course of a season).
Let's take a mid-level WR like Terrance Williams, to stick with the same offensive context. Williams, a decent but not exceptional WR, caught 62% of his targets for 9.0 yards per target in his Cowboys career. Williams was targeted less often than Witten, maybe 80-90x per season in the middle 2010s, and passing to him resulted in 3-4 incompletions than Romo's average per season but also added roughly 125-150 yards total in passing yardage.
So which has more impact on the passing offense? A HoF level TE like Witten or a decent starting WR like Williams? The answer isn't obvious to me.
So to get this out of the way: yes, I know there are many things that a TE does that are not statistically measurable, at least easy. And I know my analysis above is simplistic. But the above - which all comes from the same set so it should be comparable - just quantifies my intuition about the TE position.
A Hall of Famer like Witten or an average starting WR? I'd rather have Witten, sure, but they don't have monumental differences in impact.
maybe a better analysis is the difference between Witten and an average TE. Presumably the team has the TE in additoin to an average WR, not instead of.
I think the fallacy is looking at TE production vs WR production and thinking that TEs don't make a difference.
If you have a TE who can constantly win one on one battles with linebackers or safeties, it forces the D to have to put more than one person on the TE. When you do that, you are creating one on one match-ups for your skill players to exploit. If you have two skill guys who can consistently beat one on one coverage; that's a nightmare for a defense.
It's the same concept as an elite RB (8 men in the box) or elite WR (getting bracket coverage). Gives other guys the oppurtunity to make plays. And when the defense gambles on one on one match-up on an elite player; that's when you can exploit that match-up.
are two of the top 10-12 non QB difference makers in the NFL on the offensive side of the ball
Also, when you factor in that the supply of difference makers at TE is much more scarce than it is at WR, I think the argument that a guy like Pitts would be a tremendous addition becomes even stronger
If we draft Pitts and Barkley and DJ are on same field
we are unstoppable in red zone. Best team in league with how our line run blocks. The amount of gadget plays go way down in redzone as well. No need. Teams move the ball with ease in football today and that's why explosive plays in red zone scoring percentage are so important.
RE: If we draft Pitts and Barkley and DJ are on same field
we are unstoppable in red zone. Best team in league with how our line run blocks. The amount of gadget plays go way down in redzone as well. No need. Teams move the ball with ease in football today and that's why explosive plays in red zone scoring percentage are so important.
Unstoppable...Best team in league??
Where did this come from?
RE: RE: If we draft Pitts and Barkley and DJ are on same field
we are unstoppable in red zone. Best team in league with how our line run blocks. The amount of gadget plays go way down in redzone as well. No need. Teams move the ball with ease in football today and that's why explosive plays in red zone scoring percentage are so important.
Unstoppable...Best team in league??
Where did this come from?
To quote Alan Greenspan, this sounds like “irrational exuberance”...
I don’t understand how we wouldn’t be best team in league in red zone
Pitts is practically unstoppable in the air, you have the 11th man in run game with DJ, you certainly need to account for Saquon, and our line can run block.
There just isn’t a way to stop it. You want to have everyone accounted for in run game? Pitts has 1 v 1 matchup with corner. Good luck with that.
Zeke - not suggesting the picture you paint is a bad one
Of how good Saquon actually is. Between him and DJ in run game, we really just need a red zone receiving threat to get to the next level. IMO I think Pitts is going to step on the NFL field and be best red zone receiving threat in entire league. Maybe I change my mind after combine, but if he jumps 34 inches plus, really can’t stop him down there the way he attacks football. We were actually mediocre in red zone until DJs running ability got taken away, and that’s with the putrid pieces around him.
For us to have a good red zone offense. Balls need to be delivered on time in such close quarters and one of Jones’ 2020 problems is that the balls were regularly late getting to the receivers.
RE: I don’t think it’s pipe dream talk. I think people have amnesia
Of how good Saquon actually is. Between him and DJ in run game, we really just need a red zone receiving threat to get to the next level. IMO I think Pitts is going to step on the NFL field and be best red zone receiving threat in entire league. Maybe I change my mind after combine, but if he jumps 34 inches plus, really can’t stop him down there the way he attacks football. We were actually mediocre in red zone until DJs running ability got taken away, and that’s with the putrid pieces around him.
For us to have a good red zone offense. Balls need to be delivered on time in such close quarters and one of Jones’ 2020 problems is that the balls were regularly late getting to the receivers.
Not sure where this is coming from other than the failed two pt conversion and I broke that play down ad nasuem why he pulled that ball down. We had zero red zone receiving threats. Our best option was Shep and he’s a two route pony down there. Slant and z-out. Go to the well there and its risky as it results in pick 6s. The QB that played in second half of the season was not “regularly late”.
has a bigger impact thank Tyreek Hill, IMO. That’s the #1 TE vs a top 7 or 8 WR in terms of league wide value.
The problem I have with TEs is they are really hard to find and they bust easily so trying to find the next Kelce is likely going to end up in a wasted pick in all likelihood.
I started focussing more on Jones’ timing in the last half of the season. He delivers the ball late pretty often. People complain about our skill players but Jones is often not putting them into a position to make easy catches or to get YAC. It’s an area where he really needs to improve and isn’t just about thar 2pt conversion we were talking about last year.
I started focussing more on Jones’ timing in the last half of the season. He delivers the ball late pretty often. People complain about our skill players but Jones is often not putting them into a position to make easy catches or to get YAC. It’s an area where he really needs to improve and isn’t just about thar 2pt conversion we were talking about last year.
Yeh I’m going to go ahead and disagree with that. First half of season? Sure, but when there is nowhere to go with the ball, there’s no where to go.
Rewatched the Ravens game last evening as I really didn't
see much of it the first time, and many here (and Mara and Judge) point to that game as a good one for Jones.
But I just didn't see it. Ravens Front 7, blitzing and overall speed really surprised the Giants Oline and Jones and I didn't see them adjust soon enough. But Jones also didn't meet the challenge very well imv. Slow processing, late throws and missed throws all pretty apparent. Yes, his OL and WR need to step up too but looking to the guy under Center to be sharper, and at the very least make defenses SOMETIMES for being aggressive.
I pulled the below from Sy's review writeup because it explains what i saw as well...to a tee.
-Daniel Jones: 24-41 / 252 yards / 1 TD – 0 INT / 84.6 RAT
The stat line actually made Jones’ performance look better than he played. It wasn’t a good game for the sophomore, as he missed on multiple throws that, simply put, he needs to make. He was short on a couple deep balls to Slayton, he was high on a couple of open slants where he had pressure coming right at him, and he did not process information quickly enough when BAL sent the house in their blitz packages. While the offensive line didn’t do him any favors and we just don’t see these receivers ever running with space around them, his performance did not help this team.
as others have pointed out TE tandems like Gronk and Hernandez and Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, why hasn't any team ever used 3 TEs as their base personnel?
A good, athletic TE is a mismatch no matter who you have trying to cover him, right? Can outrun most LBers, has size advantage over DBs, and can run block better than WRs can. So why not have 3 TEs out there that can shift into any formation you want to take advantage of these mismatches every play? If the defense trots out their nickel package, shift into a goalline set and run it down their throats. If they bring out their jumbo package, spread it out and throw it to whomever is being covered by their LBers. Take Little Bill's 2 TE nightmare up a notch.
There have been several Sy reviews this year that contradicted the BBI mainstream that Jones played well.
It's like I wrote to you yesterday, Jones finally broke his TD drought against the Ravens after a month without throwing one. So it was like a collective exhale of: "Whew, okay Jones is back as the franchise QB!..."
Is that really an opinion worth propping up? I don’t think anyone thought he played a great game and we only lost because of those around him.
What really happened is we were predicted to lose by 40 and he played a bit better than most figured he would.
Isn’t this thread about TEs? Doesn’t our often times make our QB look works? Wouldnt we be better if our TE caught those 4 or 5 big passes?
Jones and how well he played at the end of year was a topic a day or so ago on a thread, and someone was specifically giving him props for the Raven game. I mentioned I wanted to rewatch it because many on BBI and Mara have mentioned the same I didn't recall that being the case.
When I read the above posts from Zeke and cosmic commenting on DJ, I just put my comment here.
There have been several Sy reviews this year that contradicted the BBI mainstream that Jones played well.
It's like I wrote to you yesterday, Jones finally broke his TD drought against the Ravens after a month without throwing one. So it was like a collective exhale of: "Whew, okay Jones is back as the franchise QB!..."
Yes, I tend to agree bw.
After the last few years of Eli's career and now DJ's sophomore year, it does indeed feel that Giants fans are somewhat complacent with a QB performance that, while may not be bad, doesn't really do anything noticeably well to lift offensive production & scoring and keep them in the game.
Defenders here will read that and say "the QB can't do it all" versus reading it and questioning is he doing enough.
I just see your name on every single thread and it’s usually about one of two or three things.
So one guy said Jones played really well against the ravens, do I have that right?
I’m actually pretty entertained by the lengths you go so keep it coming. I’ve taken the sit back and watch approach for the most part now so the arguments that I’m no longer in really make the day go.
Um...enough of posters said it but moreso my interest
most and thats speed and explosion over the top. A good TE helps make the o run like a well oiled machine as a nice go to guy to keep 3rd downs manageable as well as an outlet,
It is all about the effectiveness in the offense. a TE like Mark Andrews is essential to the Baltimore offense because he's in as a blocker the majority of the time, but when he goes out, he's almost assuredly has a mismatch due to the design of the Baltimore offense. There are also designed plays where he is going to be in space against a DE on a misdirection play. His ability to get that big gain feeds off of that and the mismatch.
In the KC offense, you have a deep threat that opens up the underneath routes for Kelce and once he has a step, he's getting additional yards vs. a replacement TE.
Kittle, off of the RPO and play action was not just effective, but the centerpiece of the SF offense.
I'm not sure how we can be living in the Era of guys like Kittle, Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Witten, Graham and Waller, and not see the impact they have.
Quote:
So what are you getting at here? You don't think a first round pick should be invested in a TE?
To me, controlling the middle of the field is pretty vital for both the defense and the offense. So if you can find a TE who can consistently pressure a safety to cover - and the TE is winning that match-up - the offense then has more opportunities to exploit more space. And that's a big ripple effect.
If that's the argument "We shouldn't invest a 1st rd pick in a TE" - I think there's a valid argument to made there.
If it's the fact that TE don't impact the game at a high level - I don't think there's an argument to had there.
That's very well put
Here's one stat-driven way of looking at it. Let's take Jason Witten, primarily a pass catcher rather than a blocker and generally an excellent TE.
He caught on average 71% of his targets over his career and 7.6 yards per target. That completion percentage is slightly above what a good QB in this period averages. Tony Romo's lifetime completion percentage is 65%, for example. and an average yards per attempt of 7.9 yards. Witten was targeted roughly 120x per season in his prime, so he helped Tony Romo complete maybe 7-8 extra passes over the course of a season vs an average alternative target, with a mild negative in yardage (maybe negative 50 yards over the course of a season).
Let's take a mid-level WR like Terrance Williams, to stick with the same offensive context. Williams, a decent but not exceptional WR, caught 62% of his targets for 9.0 yards per target in his Cowboys career. Williams was targeted less often than Witten, maybe 80-90x per season in the middle 2010s, and passing to him resulted in 3-4 incompletions than Romo's average per season but also added roughly 125-150 yards total in passing yardage.
So which has more impact on the passing offense? A HoF level TE like Witten or a decent starting WR like Williams? The answer isn't obvious to me.
So to get this out of the way: yes, I know there are many things that a TE does that are not statistically measurable, at least easy. And I know my analysis above is simplistic. But the above - which all comes from the same set so it should be comparable - just quantifies my intuition about the TE position.
A Hall of Famer like Witten or an average starting WR? I'd rather have Witten, sure, but they don't have monumental differences in impact.
Hi cosmic,
I think they do have monumental differences, in the sense that those stats alone (as you know and said) are rather simplistic.
In this particular example, Witten was the chain mover, Romo's security blanket and buried us in a lot of games. That 15' season opener where he scored a TD in the last 5 seconds in the game is a good example.
And as a piece of the engine you have to account for a guy like that defensively speaking, which opens up other possibilities for the other skill players (this is actually why I think the Giants insist so much with Engram despite all the bad plays).
On the other hand, I do not remember enough about Terrance Williams to argue here.
Another point is, here we're only talking about receiving abilities, but just to make a point did you see Gronk vs Young in the Wild Card? It was talked about all week that Chase would wreak havoc in that game and he couldn't get to Brady.
In the end of the day as I see it, football is all about matchups and when you have a great, dual-threat TE, it gives you immense advantage in the game.
But why not look at the passing game the same way - it's a good point.
Let's compare Witten in 2011, one of his better seasons, vs a totally mediocre backup TE named John Phillips on the Cowboys that season. Phillips was not a pass receiving threat and averaged a measly 5.6 yards per target vs Witten's 8.1. Witten was targeted 117 times that season and caught 79 of them. Let's say the Cowboys had to make do with Phillips and didn't use Witten's playmaking ability in their play design (I know that's a stretch, but this is a simplifying look at this). Philips also hoovered everything thrown at him (he caught 83% of the passes thrown to him vs Witten's 67%) so he's truly a low-threat outlet TE who caught dump-offs. Philips would have generated much less yardage than Witten (411 yards less, which I calculate by the difference between the two players yards per reception (11.9-6.7)*79 yards per target difference) but he also would have caught more balls because he was a dump-off receiver without big play ability. Those additional yards I calculate as 123 yards (18 extra receptions at Philips average yards per catch (not per target) of 6.7). 410 less 123 over the whole season averages to about 18 yards per game.
So you substitute one of the great TEs of recent history for a backup blocking guy who is no threat whatsoever and the difference is 18 yards per game. You can quibble with my analysis - which isn't meant to be comprehensive - and point out out that the two players were used in different ways, which dynamically helped the entire offense, BUT boy is 18 yards not a lot.
The range of numbers backs up my instinct that the TE position isn't a difference maker.
Look, you are losing me altogether now.
First of all, if you now move to compare Witten to a replacement type blocker than the receiving aspect comes back into play and you have to carry two guys versus one. This also signals to defense what is coming. If you suggest you don't need the receiving TE at all, then fine just expect double coverage on Williams and watch what happens to his numbers.
Second, that is not the way to extrapolate. And even if it was then why isn't John Phillips more well known?
I gave it an honest try, but you seem to want to sit at a position of prove me wrong versus staying objective.
thx
Quote:
So what are you getting at here? You don't think a first round pick should be invested in a TE?
To me, controlling the middle of the field is pretty vital for both the defense and the offense. So if you can find a TE who can consistently pressure a safety to cover - and the TE is winning that match-up - the offense then has more opportunities to exploit more space. And that's a big ripple effect.
If that's the argument "We shouldn't invest a 1st rd pick in a TE" - I think there's a valid argument to made there.
If it's the fact that TE don't impact the game at a high level - I don't think there's an argument to had there.
Good post Dnew. That is where I am. I like a guy like Pitts and think he would be an exciting addition. However, some concern that at #11 I am picking a guy that has an immediate flaw that the Offense has to make up for.
He still might be worth it if the receiving is that important to my scheme. If not, then I might be best served to get an average receiver who can block and maybe find that guy in Rd 2 (or whenever).
To clarify, this post was really about Pitts. I think all the Giants TEs suck and need to be replaced. I hate Engram, simply hate him. So the question is whether a premier talent like Pitts is really the way to move the team forward.
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So what are you getting at here? You don't think a first round pick should be invested in a TE?
To me, controlling the middle of the field is pretty vital for both the defense and the offense. So if you can find a TE who can consistently pressure a safety to cover - and the TE is winning that match-up - the offense then has more opportunities to exploit more space. And that's a big ripple effect.
If that's the argument "We shouldn't invest a 1st rd pick in a TE" - I think there's a valid argument to made there.
TE is such a difficult position to evaluate to determine if the skill sets/production will convey from college to pro. You really have to be convinced.
So I go back and forth on that. However, lately, I'm saying yes - the TE position is a premium position to draft in the first round (largely based on what I described earlier).
But then there are layers. Is a top ten investment worth it? Top fifteen? Bottom half of the draft? Etc. I probably think it's an easier sell in the bottom half.
Then a guy like Pitts comes along and it's very easy to see something special there. There is a lot to like. I have never liked Jones throwing the ball outside the numbers. But he does appear to throw a good ball into the seam. And who can really dominate that part of the field? A terrific TE.
NE - Gronk 4th in receiving missed 5 games
Phil - Ertz - 1st in receiving
NE - Bennett 2nd in team receiving in only 12 starts
DEN - Owen Daniels - 3rd on team
NE - Gronk - 1st on team
For the past 6 SB winners, the TE was 1st on the team in yards. If anything - that might indicate TE's are a significant difference maker
NE - Gronk 4th in receiving missed 5 games
Phil - Ertz - 1st in receiving
NE - Bennett 2nd in team receiving in only 12 starts
DEN - Owen Daniels - 3rd on team
NE - Gronk - 1st on team
For the past 6 SB winners, the TE was 1st on the team in yards. If anything - that might indicate TE's are a significant difference maker
Nor are running backs, or OL or QB's.
Two points:
1. The average WR is easy to find.
2. A top TE impacts the way the defense plays.
Impact TE or avg WR? That TE is much harder to find and it makes your team much tougher to defend. You have a TE who can't be covered by TEs it makes it a lot easier for that easy-to-find avg WR to make plays.
An interesting year to make this argument when guys like Kittle and Ertz were hurt, but yes a solid TE can make a difference, just like about any other skill position. Finding the right role for a key - some guys may be more TD threats, or a LB/S mismatch as a receiver, or a well rounded blocker/clutch catch guy etc. You can argue how much difference maybe, but pretty much any position can have a huge effect if you have the right talent used correctly.
2007:
Greg Olsen
2008:
Dustin Keller
2009:
Brandon Pettigrew
2010:
Jermaine Gresham
2011:
none
2012:
none
2013:
Tyler Eifert
2014:
Eric Ebron
2015:
none
2016:
none
2017:
OJ Howard
Evan Engram
David Njoku
2018:
Hayden Hurst
2019:
TJ Hockenson
Noah Fant
2020:
none
THat's 13 years worth of 1st rd TEs.
That position is much harder to figure out in the draft than QB. So many first round "flops" at that position. Remember Detroit just grabbed a "difference maker" TE in the top 10 and they already had really good WRs. He hasn't made a difference at all.
The TE position is difficult to adjust to in the NFL.
No thanks to the first round TE at the 11th pick.
Not a fan at all.
I don't need an undersized TE. I don't need a 4.4.
Give me a big, hard-nosed sumbitch who can block, catch a pass when he's wide open and run over anyone who tries to tackle him. The one athletic play I look for is the ability to get up the seam and make a circus catch, which is why a basketball background intrigues.
You can find these guys in the later rounds, and bargain bin free agency. Mike Pope used to track all the Big 10 TE's and hit when called upon.
Just created so many issues in the run/pass game that for that type of offense was what having stud WRs was to the Greatest Show on Turf, the current KC offense, etc.
Walker left in FA that offseason and that offense was never the same.
New England was creating problems with the two TE offense before the murdered was arrested. Looking back, there weren't many big games the two of them played together at the same time.
The issues with TEs is that not only are there less of them on team rosters, but finding good let alone great ones are pretty rare.
I hope no one is checking my browsing history at work today. Although I guess it could be way worse than 1st rd NFL TE drafts :)
Here's one stat-driven way of looking at it. Let's take Jason Witten, primarily a pass catcher rather than a blocker and generally an excellent TE.
He caught on average 71% of his targets over his career and 7.6 yards per target. That completion percentage is slightly above what a good QB in this period averages. Tony Romo's lifetime completion percentage is 65%, for example. and an average yards per attempt of 7.9 yards. Witten was targeted roughly 120x per season in his prime, so he helped Tony Romo complete maybe 7-8 extra passes over the course of a season vs an average alternative target, with a mild negative in yardage (maybe negative 50 yards over the course of a season).
Let's take a mid-level WR like Terrance Williams, to stick with the same offensive context. Williams, a decent but not exceptional WR, caught 62% of his targets for 9.0 yards per target in his Cowboys career. Williams was targeted less often than Witten, maybe 80-90x per season in the middle 2010s, and passing to him resulted in 3-4 incompletions than Romo's average per season but also added roughly 125-150 yards total in passing yardage.
So which has more impact on the passing offense? A HoF level TE like Witten or a decent starting WR like Williams? The answer isn't obvious to me.
So to get this out of the way: yes, I know there are many things that a TE does that are not statistically measurable, at least easy. And I know my analysis above is simplistic. But the above - which all comes from the same set so it should be comparable - just quantifies my intuition about the TE position.
A Hall of Famer like Witten or an average starting WR? I'd rather have Witten, sure, but they don't have monumental differences in impact.
maybe a better analysis is the difference between Witten and an average TE. Presumably the team has the TE in additoin to an average WR, not instead of.
markky - did you see I tried exactly that TE comp later on?
If you have a TE who can constantly win one on one battles with linebackers or safeties, it forces the D to have to put more than one person on the TE. When you do that, you are creating one on one match-ups for your skill players to exploit. If you have two skill guys who can consistently beat one on one coverage; that's a nightmare for a defense.
It's the same concept as an elite RB (8 men in the box) or elite WR (getting bracket coverage). Gives other guys the oppurtunity to make plays. And when the defense gambles on one on one match-up on an elite player; that's when you can exploit that match-up.
Also, when you factor in that the supply of difference makers at TE is much more scarce than it is at WR, I think the argument that a guy like Pitts would be a tremendous addition becomes even stronger
Unstoppable...Best team in league??
Where did this come from?
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we are unstoppable in red zone. Best team in league with how our line run blocks. The amount of gadget plays go way down in redzone as well. No need. Teams move the ball with ease in football today and that's why explosive plays in red zone scoring percentage are so important.
Unstoppable...Best team in league??
Where did this come from?
To quote Alan Greenspan, this sounds like “irrational exuberance”...
There just isn’t a way to stop it. You want to have everyone accounted for in run game? Pitts has 1 v 1 matchup with corner. Good luck with that.
But unstoppable and best in the league bragging with any part of the NY Giants, and specifically scoring, is like pipe-dream talk.
Just finishing my first cup of coffee too.
Ok. If NYG draft Pitts then I hope you're right.
Not sure where this is coming from other than the failed two pt conversion and I broke that play down ad nasuem why he pulled that ball down. We had zero red zone receiving threats. Our best option was Shep and he’s a two route pony down there. Slant and z-out. Go to the well there and its risky as it results in pick 6s. The QB that played in second half of the season was not “regularly late”.
The problem I have with TEs is they are really hard to find and they bust easily so trying to find the next Kelce is likely going to end up in a wasted pick in all likelihood.
Yeh I’m going to go ahead and disagree with that. First half of season? Sure, but when there is nowhere to go with the ball, there’s no where to go.
But I just didn't see it. Ravens Front 7, blitzing and overall speed really surprised the Giants Oline and Jones and I didn't see them adjust soon enough. But Jones also didn't meet the challenge very well imv. Slow processing, late throws and missed throws all pretty apparent. Yes, his OL and WR need to step up too but looking to the guy under Center to be sharper, and at the very least make defenses SOMETIMES for being aggressive.
I pulled the below from Sy's review writeup because it explains what i saw as well...to a tee.
-Daniel Jones: 24-41 / 252 yards / 1 TD – 0 INT / 84.6 RAT
The stat line actually made Jones’ performance look better than he played. It wasn’t a good game for the sophomore, as he missed on multiple throws that, simply put, he needs to make. He was short on a couple deep balls to Slayton, he was high on a couple of open slants where he had pressure coming right at him, and he did not process information quickly enough when BAL sent the house in their blitz packages. While the offensive line didn’t do him any favors and we just don’t see these receivers ever running with space around them, his performance did not help this team.
A good, athletic TE is a mismatch no matter who you have trying to cover him, right? Can outrun most LBers, has size advantage over DBs, and can run block better than WRs can. So why not have 3 TEs out there that can shift into any formation you want to take advantage of these mismatches every play? If the defense trots out their nickel package, shift into a goalline set and run it down their throats. If they bring out their jumbo package, spread it out and throw it to whomever is being covered by their LBers. Take Little Bill's 2 TE nightmare up a notch.
There have been several Sy reviews this year that contradicted the BBI mainstream that Jones played well.
It's like I wrote to you yesterday, Jones finally broke his TD drought against the Ravens after a month without throwing one. So it was like a collective exhale of: "Whew, okay Jones is back as the franchise QB!..."
All we need is a guy who can catch what is thrown to him and who can be a very effective blocker. We do not need a speed burner.
What really happened is we were predicted to lose by 40 and he played a bit better than most figured he would.
Isn’t this thread about TEs? Doesn’t our often times make our QB look works? Wouldnt we be better if our TE caught those 4 or 5 big passes?
What really happened is we were predicted to lose by 40 and he played a bit better than most figured he would.
Isn’t this thread about TEs? Doesn’t our often times make our QB look works? Wouldnt we be better if our TE caught those 4 or 5 big passes?
Jones and how well he played at the end of year was a topic a day or so ago on a thread, and someone was specifically giving him props for the Raven game. I mentioned I wanted to rewatch it because many on BBI and Mara have mentioned the same I didn't recall that being the case.
When I read the above posts from Zeke and cosmic commenting on DJ, I just put my comment here.
Don't be so off-put for a nothing reason.
Good lord.
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make defenses pay SOMETIMES for being aggressive
There have been several Sy reviews this year that contradicted the BBI mainstream that Jones played well.
It's like I wrote to you yesterday, Jones finally broke his TD drought against the Ravens after a month without throwing one. So it was like a collective exhale of: "Whew, okay Jones is back as the franchise QB!..."
Yes, I tend to agree bw.
After the last few years of Eli's career and now DJ's sophomore year, it does indeed feel that Giants fans are somewhat complacent with a QB performance that, while may not be bad, doesn't really do anything noticeably well to lift offensive production & scoring and keep them in the game.
Defenders here will read that and say "the QB can't do it all" versus reading it and questioning is he doing enough.
So one guy said Jones played really well against the ravens, do I have that right?
I’m actually pretty entertained by the lengths you go so keep it coming. I’ve taken the sit back and watch approach for the most part now so the arguments that I’m no longer in really make the day go.
Sit back some more, so we all can enjoy that if this is how you want to act.