-Mets have somewhere between 24-28 million remaining under the lux tax (depending on the source)
-Springer reportedly prefers the Northeast, Tim Healey does not believe they can both sign Springer and retain Conforto next season.
-Blue Jays expected to up their pursuit of Springer/Bauer
-Mets still talking to Hand (as are other teams)
-Yates has offers from 5 teams (I would love adding Yates. I'd take Yates+ Wilson over Hand)
1B: Alonzo (grade = 8.5, long term commitment = yes)
2B: Disregarding Cano for now. McNeil (grade = 7.5, long term commitment = yes)
SS: Lindor (grade = 9.5, long term commitment = little uncertainty)
3B: Davis (grade = 5, long term commitment = no)
LF: Nimmo (grade = 6, long term commitment = no)
CF: No current MLB solutions short of Nimmo in CF and Smith in LF; Springer seems likely
RF: Conforto (grade = 8.5, long term commitment = not yet but seems very likely)
SP1: JDG (the best; and locked up long term)
SP2, 3: Stroman, Carrasco (very good 2, 3)
SP4: Peterson seems like a solid 4
Question marks: Matz (persistent injuries and inconsistency) and Thor (mid-year return from TJ)
Bullpen seems very strong but Hand would be a nice acquisition.
How do feel about the bench?
Do you like Guilorme as a IF bench piece?
Nido as well?
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things... Matz's contract is only 1/6th guaranteed (Gsellman as well). Both are essentially on "tryout" contracts, especially Gsellman. The bench is weak, Sandy said as much. He said he sees them adding as many as 3 OF's (one starter).
Do you like Guilorme as a IF bench piece?
Nido as well?
Completely fine with both (they need to add more bench IF depth) but Guillorme won't hurt you. Strong fielder, plus bat to ball skills. Nido is a plus defensive C. He's fine as the primary backup.
Fair enough.
of course they can do it.
of course they can do it.
"Can't" without going significantly over the lux tax is more like it. Remember, Conforto/Thor/Stroman are ALL FA's. It is hard to envision them signing Springer + Conforto and Syndergaard. I've yet to read/see anything that suggests they don't "care" about the lux tax. Sure we can say "sign Springer, Bauer, Odorizzi fuck the lux tax" but that doesn't seem to be their reality.
May is solid but Wilson was solid too, so that's not a huge upgrade. That's why imo Hand is closer to necessity than luxury.
Then they have Dom, Nimmo, Alonso, Diaz, Lugo, McNeil, Nido, Castro, Davis arbitration-eligible.
So Springer would put them at roughly 125 million for 7 players and without keeping/replacing Conforto/Thor/Stroman. Not saying it's "impossible" but that's the math.
May is solid but Wilson was solid too, so that's not a huge upgrade. That's why imo Hand is closer to necessity than luxury.
Yup. I'm with you. As of now I don't see how we can argue the pen is anything better than average on paper. 2 very good RP's (Diaz/Lugo) one good (May) and then a bunch of ?? Wilson and Shreve were good/solid last season.
May+ more Lugo obviously is better than Wilson/Shreve but not "hugely" as you noted.
but agree, if can't is qualified with without exceeding the LT.
but agree, if can't is qualified with without exceeding the LT.
The real issue is if they go over now, then next season if they want to retain their bigger FA they then become repeat offenders which comes with bigger penalties so the feeling is they likely want to try and stay under for 2021 so they have an easier time going over in 2022 or even 2022 AND 2023. My feeling is they are more concerned with repeating 2 or 3 times in a row if they can avoid these penalties. It would be close to "impossible" to sign Springer+ Conforto and avoid going over in 2022 (repeat offender).
They would have 8 players signed for roughly 150 million (which doesn't include Alonso, Dom, Nimmo, Diaz, Lugo etc) and also means they let Thor/Stroman walk (and haven't replaced them). Maybe they consistently go over, are okay with both money, and pick penalties and just deal with it but it's likely they DO care.
The LAD have been used as a prototype - they have betts ($31m) and 2 other OF'ers making relatively big $ (Pollock 18m, Bellinger 16m in arb). Seager is a good bit cheaper than Lindor this year but that won't be the case next year if they resign him.
So net-net I don't think it's all that challenging to envision paying both Springer and Conforto even with Lindor. That said I do think it will be challenging to then also resign Nimmo to the dollars he will likely command in 2 years. So to me it's more of a question of which combination of 2 provide the best roi going forward? The prices of all 3 are not a secret to the NYM so they need to take a longer term view and decide the answer to that question now since Springer is seemingly out there for the taking and both Nimmo/Conforto will only get more expensive with each day they get closer to UFA.
Sidenote. We really need to be rooting for Peterson to hold down a 4 or 5 spot and maybe a guy or two to blossom in the bullpen this year. With so many big paydays coming up in 2022-2024, we absolutely need some cost effective talent to emerge.
The LAD have been used as a prototype - they have betts ($31m) and 2 other OF'ers making relatively big $ (Pollock 18m, Bellinger 16m in arb). Seager is a good bit cheaper than Lindor this year but that won't be the case next year if they resign him.
So net-net I don't think it's all that challenging to envision paying both Springer and Conforto even with Lindor. That said I do think it will be challenging to then also resign Nimmo to the dollars he will likely command in 2 years. So to me it's more of a question of which combination of 2 provide the best roi going forward? The prices of all 3 are not a secret to the NYM so they need to take a longer term view and decide the answer to that question now since Springer is seemingly out there for the taking and both Nimmo/Conforto will only get more expensive with each day they get closer to UFA.
Again, shows how much cheap/good pitching helps the Dodgers. Syndergaard/Stroman don’t have internal replacement options. So they have to be part of the equation.
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if they're willing to exceed the LT for one year and it seems like after saying they wouldn't exceed the LT, both Sandy and Cohen have made comments softening that stance a little.
but agree, if can't is qualified with without exceeding the LT.
The real issue is if they go over now, then next season if they want to retain their bigger FA they then become repeat offenders which comes with bigger penalties so the feeling is they likely want to try and stay under for 2021 so they have an easier time going over in 2022 or even 2022 AND 2023. My feeling is they are more concerned with repeating 2 or 3 times in a row if they can avoid these penalties. It would be close to "impossible" to sign Springer+ Conforto and avoid going over in 2022 (repeat offender).
They would have 8 players signed for roughly 150 million (which doesn't include Alonso, Dom, Nimmo, Diaz, Lugo etc) and also means they let Thor/Stroman walk (and haven't replaced them). Maybe they consistently go over, are okay with both money, and pick penalties and just deal with it but it's likely they DO care.
I'm suggesting to go over next year, 2022.
this year sign Springer, and stay under the LT.
next year, open up the pocket book.
Extend Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard.
but like I said front load all those contracts so they lessen in out years (if that's how the LT calculaiton considers the contract toward to the LT)
that way it's a one year hit and a one year hit is minimal.
it's the multiple years being over the LT that makes the pain exponential.
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under Sandy they actually did exactly that with Granderson and Cespedes with the Wilponzis payroll (even with Wright).
The LAD have been used as a prototype - they have betts ($31m) and 2 other OF'ers making relatively big $ (Pollock 18m, Bellinger 16m in arb). Seager is a good bit cheaper than Lindor this year but that won't be the case next year if they resign him.
So net-net I don't think it's all that challenging to envision paying both Springer and Conforto even with Lindor. That said I do think it will be challenging to then also resign Nimmo to the dollars he will likely command in 2 years. So to me it's more of a question of which combination of 2 provide the best roi going forward? The prices of all 3 are not a secret to the NYM so they need to take a longer term view and decide the answer to that question now since Springer is seemingly out there for the taking and both Nimmo/Conforto will only get more expensive with each day they get closer to UFA.
Again, shows how much cheap/good pitching helps the Dodgers. Syndergaard/Stroman don’t have internal replacement options. So they have to be part of the equation.
They still pay Kershaw, Jansen, and Price. Thor if healthy will need to be resigned for $20m+ but Stroman remains to be seen - both in terms of what his FMV is and whether or not he should be brought back.
there is no question developing cheap talent has to be the #1 organizational priority if they want to sustain success. That's separate from what they can spend right now though - they need to do both while the few remaining cheap homegrown players are under control.
that's also why I'd highly consider trading Nimmo at his peak value with 2 years of control if they do sign Springer to add some talent into the system. But obviously you only do that if the return justifies it.
He had that bone spur in the shoulder and then the achilles injury to follow, is it fair to think he can return to 2018 type of performance?
I know it was ugly last year, but it was only 11.2 IP in the COVID season. Perhaps the prep for this season and the further healing will put him in position to have a big rebound in 2020.
If that's the case, the bullpen looks a lot better, but I still think they need another good lefty. I'd love it if they just brought Justin Wilson back.
Dan - Something you were talking about with how the salaries count against the luxury tax, that you can't front load or anything...I'm a little confused when it comes to deGrom. The deal he signed carries an AAV of $27.5M, but per Spotrac his Luxury Tax Salary is $21.78M.
What am I missing?
“ The terms of Jacob DeGrom‘s new five-year $137.5 million are being reported, revealing that a whopping $52.5M is being deferred without interest for 15 years to the period between 2035 and 2038. As a result the current value of the deal could be as little as $109M.
The deal defers between $12M and $15M each year between 2020 and 2023, and the $30M team option for 2024 includes $15M deferred to 2039.
”
I think it's pretty obvious you keep the 2 guys on the right side of 30...
I think it's pretty obvious you keep the 2 guys on the right side of 30...
Then you don't sign Springer at all unless it's a one year deal, which I guess is possible, but for now maybe less likely. Right?
Given his age and health, Carrasco no longer fits the Bill. Stroman is not that caliber pitcher. Thor is but can he regain his stuff that quickly?
Given his age and health, Carrasco no longer fits the Bill. Stroman is not that caliber pitcher. Thor is but can he regain his stuff that quickly?
How many teams have needed 2 Kershaws/Bumgarners to win WS? Didn't the actual Bumgarner win 2 of his rings without anyone else close to his level? KC beat our 3 aces and they didn't have any. When HOU acquired Verlander he was probably considered further from that level than Carrasco.
Carrasco is plenty good enough to be a #2 on a WS team, Thor has as much upside as any SP in baseball if he comes back healthy, and even though I'm not the world's biggest Stroman fan he has made all star games and received CY votes.
How many teams have 4 starters who have made all star games and received CY votes? Depth behind them is a perfectly valid question but the rotation has as much upside as almost any in MLB.
I get that there is uncertainty after Diaz lugo and may but that is three potentially elite relievers. Then you have familia and benentes, both of whom have been elite before and one is one year further removed from the injury that clearly impacted him last year. Not saying it’s a sure thing but I think we are underselling the pens potential.
I get that there is uncertainty after Diaz lugo and may but that is three potentially elite relievers. Then you have familia and benentes, both of whom have been elite before and one is one year further removed from the injury that clearly impacted him last year. Not saying it’s a sure thing but I think we are underselling the pens potential.
Of RP’s who threw at least 20 innings he was 48th in FIP, so call it what you want but that’s merely good to me.
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Craig’s Take
Most of May’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but his 40% strikeout rate in 2020 really jumps out. His velocity has steadily increased over the years, now sitting in the upper-90s. Even at 31 years old, there’s a sense that his best seasons might still be ahead of him. The home runs are a bit frustrating, but if he can keep hitters missing and stay healthy, he’s the second-best reliever in this free agent class.”
“ He has the premium velocity, strong spin-rate and high whiff rate profile that analytical clubs value over raw saw numbers in free agency.”
So yeah, I like the move a lot but he has yet to be a “very good” RP. The K rate is amazing and if he can limit the long ball he has that upside but he’s more “good” than anything more to this point in his career
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But as Edwards notes, the ranking isn’t so much a reflection of May’s past as it is the potential teams see in him. That sounds strange to say about an over-30 pitcher with a surgically rebuilt elbow, but it does apply here. When May broke into the majors in 2014, his average fastball velocity sat around 92.6 mph. When he returned from Tommy John surgery in ’18, he was at 94. Then he jumped up to 95.5 in ’19 and 96.3 last season. He’s also increased the spin rate on his fastball in each of the past two years. May’s stuff just keeps getting better despite him being 12 years into his professional career.
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Noah, Conforto, Springer...
I think it's pretty obvious you keep the 2 guys on the right side of 30...
Then you don't sign Springer at all unless it's a one year deal, which I guess is possible, but for now maybe less likely. Right?
Yeah or you give Conforto a 10 year deal and Springer a 6 year deal to keep AAV down...
But would anyone really RATHER have Springer over Conforto?? I just feel like he is just entering his prime and has a bat that will absolutely age well while Springer may have his best years behind him.
I guess it’s fair to say we disagree. I see the bullpen as 3 deep. May, Diaz and Lugo. Familia/Brach/Betances have not been good MLB RP’s since 2018. The Top pens are 5-6 deep. I don’t see that here barring a Familia or Betances surprising turnaround
Agree. Only way he takes 1 is if he thinks next year, post COVID, teams will be more "free spending" and he could basically get the same 5 year deal next year.
Long shot IMO, but that's IMO the only way he takes a 1 year deal.
January 16th, 2021 at 1:36pm CST • By Mark Polishuk
1:36PM: It doesn’t seem like the Blue Jays are one of the finalists for Yates, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that the Jays “aren’t considered frontrunners” for the righty, though Toronto had “real interest.”
One as in one year deal. Someone suggested it above