Let's Be Fair That Andy Reid 4th Down Call was bad one

and we, as fans, don’t have all the facts.

Do we know that they don’t run that play if they don’t get a certain defensive look that makes the conversion highly likely?

So no, it is not a bad call. Your opinion is that it is a bad call.

that is how you win at football. Believe in your team to gain 1 yard. Control your own destiny.

Think about it if you're on defense. You stop them short, 4th down you did your job, offense will get another shot to win the game. What's the worse thing you want to happen there? Them going for it on 4th down.

You have to be ready for the QB sneak, the RB dive, the RB going off tackle, the screen pass, any kind of pass really. And you can't false start! On offense, you have to believe in your offensive line. You can't have any free rushers and you can't have anyone blow a guy up. The qb has to be smart with the ball if its a pass....i feel like the Giants always go for the low percent completion deep sideline pass in this situation. I'm sure its because they are reading that they have single coverage...this is where play makers come into play...but still I'd rather see a high percentage pass, something the QB can see is open before throwing the ball then a 50/50 ball to a play maker.

Using the following criteria - From 2001 to 2020, any team vs. any team, started in the fourth quarter, drive started between 1:14 and 0:00 remaining, scoring margin at start of drive is between -8 and -4.

I don't see a filter for timeouts, so that probably has an impact.

This indicates 401 such drives, resulting in 31 touchdowns, or 7.7%.

All outcomes

End of Game 189 47.1%
Interception 96 23.9%
Fumble 48 12.0%
Downs 34 8.5%
Touchdown 31 7.7%
Safety 2 .5%
Fumble, Safety 1 .2%
All Turnovers 144 35.9%
All Scores 31 7.

wanted they would have called timeout and punted. At least that is my theory. I can't believe they would just blindly go for it

Ballsy and brilliant - henne can key clock run or snap depending on
Look - a players coach - a coach that plays to win - sign me up
- you guys keep having theoretical bad call discussions about things that
Worked - holy smokes

Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game.

If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time.

Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%.

If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time.
It was likely the right decision.

In comment 15126802 AdamBrag said:

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Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game. If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time. Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%. If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time. It was likely the right decision.

And don't think for a second Andy Reid didn't already know that the Browns were THE WORST team in the entire NFL on 4th down.

In comment 15126792 mcr2343 said:

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Using the following criteria - From 2001 to 2020, any team vs. any team, started in the fourth quarter, drive started between 1:14 and 0:00 remaining, scoring margin at start of drive is between -8 and -4. I don't see a filter for timeouts, so that probably has an impact. This indicates 401 such drives, resulting in 31 touchdowns, or 7.7%. All outcomes End of Game 189 47.1% Interception 96 23.9% Fumble 48 12.0% Downs 34 8.5% Touchdown 31 7.7% Safety 2 .5% Fumble, Safety 1 .2% All Turnovers 144 35.9% All Scores 31 7.

Did you put in the starting yard line being the 20? That is also a huge factor in this equation as well. Also, are the TDs necessarily offensive tds because we see (not often but not insignificantly either) a defensive TD.

Sort of call where he's hailed a genius if KC converts, a moron if Cleveland makes a stop. I would have punted considering the circumstances, but props to Reid for having the balls to make the right call & end the game.

with 0 timeouts to go 80 yards is anything more than 1 percent. You literally need a Hail Mary. Going 50 yards from midfield with all the momentum of a stop there and that defense is probably a 50/50 proposition.


How are Browns going to go 80 yards when they can’t pass block long enough for big plays the Chiefs will certainly be sitting on. Reid is a great head coach, but he certainly has questionable in game decision making skills. They had zero timeouts. A Hail Mary from the 40 plus is guranteed to be needed.

In comment 15126802 AdamBrag said:

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Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game. If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time. Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%. If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time. It was likely the right decision.

If they punt they stop CLE something like over 99 percent. Your 90 percent is low even when the factors of no timeouts and starting deep are factored in.

Scroll down a few paragraphs in this story:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/01/18/mmqb-divisional-round-chad-henne-chiefs-bills-packers-buccaneers

The play was picked by Henne. Also they took advantage of most teams line up in that situation and hope the defense jumps offsides. They counted on the Browns to relax.

what's the conversion rate for 4th and inches? I have to figure that it is pretty high (like >75%). The play isn't what I expected on 4th and inches, but I agree with going for it.

But adding in starting inside own 25 - drops TD % to 4.3. That's pretty low. I'd say it goes down to 3% or so due to timeouts.

On another note - hail mary passes have been successful at a way higher rate than I expected. It's like 1 in every 12.

None of this accounts for possibility of blocked punt or bad snap on the punt.

I think it's probably in the 3-5% range that Cle would get a TD

Browns were not expecting the Chiefs to snap the ball. They were relaxed not wanting to be called offside.
play the game to win....

In comment 15126855 mcr2343 said:

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But adding in starting inside own 25 - drops TD % to 4.3. That's pretty low. I'd say it goes down to 3% or so due to timeouts. On another note - hail mary passes have been successful at a way higher rate than I expected. It's like 1 in every 12. None of this accounts for possibility of blocked punt or bad snap on the punt. I think it's probably in the 3-5% range that Cle would get a TD

There is no way TD percentage is 4.3% when you start a drive inside the 25 with 1 minute left. Show me that stat. No way.

In comment 15126802 AdamBrag said:

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Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game. If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time. Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%. If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time. It was likely the right decision.

Exactly. It's not like it would be a guaranteed win for Cleveland if the play didn't work. In fact they probably sill wouldn't.

Over half the field in a minute, needing a TD? Possible but unlikely.

were a combined 5 for 5 on 4th down conversions.

90 yards for score? You need a Hail Mary which has a 1 in 12 shot, but what’s the percentages you even get to that point 25 percent?

situation. It’s absolutely huge and takes away so much. I’m not even sure anyone has successfully went 90 yards (which is likely outcome of punt) to score a TD with 1 minute left. It’s practically impossible.

You want more go do it yourself. but you know more than the stats so I guess since you said "No Way" you must be correct. Stathead.com - have at it genius

In comment 15126889 mcr2343 said:

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You want more go do it yourself. but you know more than the stats so I guess since you said "No Way" you must be correct. Stathead.com - have at it genius

The parameter no timeouts is absolutely huge here and a massive variable missing.

......I would have punted. But I am still old school. However, having said that, the NFL is changing.

I think the comments about the Chiefs lining and seeing what was offered (and the Browns thought they were faking IMO - even Romo pointed out their body posture IIRC) is correct...and Reid let it rip.

Andy Reid has always been an outstanding offensive coach and play designer. His issues in Philly were always his desire to throw the ball too much, and game/time management. In some ways, Reid was ahead of his time back then which didn't always translate. Particularly in big spots.

Now, the game resembles a video game more than ever. Formations, pace of the attack, style of passing/running,etc. And the issue of time management, while still important, is less of a factor because of how the game is played.

More than ever you see teams going for it on fourth down in spots that would have never happened 15 years ago. As an example, a team might punt trailing on 4th and 2 from their own 40 yard line late in the game, and get the ball back......but with precious little time due to blowing their timeouts earlier in the half. Today....no issue. The team simply goes for it now and never ends up punting.

I saw TB go for fourth and 1 at their own 30 on their third series simply because they didn't have a first down yet. And yesterday Reid's call..........never happens (or rarely) 15 years ago. The game has evolved that way.

The rest of the NFL has simply caught up to how Andy Reid wanted to coach all along.

He was in a much better position to gauge the chances of that particular play against that particular defense. He was also in a better position to gauge the difference between having to prevent them from going 80 yards or having to go 53 yards in the time remaining with no timeouts. Not to mention things that can go wrong on a punt. There's a lot to be calculated without the help of a calculator

All that being said, I would've punted and in all probability, the result would've been victory. Hard to say which choice gives a better probability of success, but there's something to be said for...
...avoiding what can go wrong on a punt - ( New Window )

Obviously you're going to choose the 1 missing item and declare how important it is. I (and hopefully others) can't take anything you say seriously when your response is to simply say the stats aren't right because there's "No Way" then pick and choose.

Spend some time doing a bit of research and maybe your points will hold a tiny bit of validity but as it is you're just spouting opinion.

I'll say the likelihood of a punt failure is far more important than the timeouts. See - now my point is more valid because you can't prove it wrong.

players make plays. I mean we have people speculating a blocked punt or bad snap can happen which is highly unlikely, especially for good teams. 20 teams didn’t have a punt blocked this year.

In comment 15126887 Zeke's Alibi said:

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situation. It’s absolutely huge and takes away so much. I’m not even sure anyone has successfully went 90 yards (which is likely outcome of punt) to score a TD with 1 minute left. It’s practically impossible.

I tend to agree. The Chiefs went for it with 1:14 on the clock. But the pulled the trigger with about 6 seconds left on the play-clock. So let's say they let the clock run out, take the 5 yard delay, and prepare to punt. The game time is probably at 1:08 before the punt.

I think a good punt will some take at least 8 seconds off the clock. And let's say the Browns have to field it at the 14. So they have to go 86 yards in 1 minute.

Mayfield has a pretty good arm, so the Browns have to get to the 50 to get a good throw for a Hail Mary. Hard to do the math on that possibility without data, but I could see the Browns pretty easily getting to the 50 in 50 seconds.

The question is can they get down the field and inside the 25 to get a crack or two at a throw(s) with a higher chance to complete.

But even then, it's tough to find any space in the endzone once the defense drops 8...

In comment 15126896 mcr2343 said:

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Obviously you're going to choose the 1 missing item and declare how important it is. I (and hopefully others) can't take anything you say seriously when your response is to simply say the stats aren't right because there's "No Way" then pick and choose. Spend some time doing a bit of research and maybe your points will hold a tiny bit of validity but as it is you're just spouting opinion. I'll say the likelihood of a punt failure is far more important than the timeouts. See - now my point is more valid because you can't prove it wrong.

No timeouts is literally the most important variable there, including the extra 15 yards you decided to add. If you punt from midfield average starting field position is about the 10. The clock is the biggest issue here. No timeouts changes the calculus comepletly.

there. They can take 3 plays over the middle but need to complete them all with no penalties.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen an NFL team with no timeouts go about 90 yards for a score.

I had a Browns ML ticket to go with my parlay and I was happy they went for it. Still am. Gave me the best chance to win IMO.

Wins the game and the way they threw the D off the scent was great. Element of surprise by the cadence and timing of the snap. The details made a ton of difference there

Chiefs defensive strength is against the pass and Browns are run first football team. They had some guy off the street pass protecting the blind side.

In comment 15126674 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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to have a certain tell that if the Browns were out of position, it was a certain conversion. Nobody thought they'd snap it, which is probably the main reason it worked

This is why I hated when the Giants repeatedly tried to draw the defense offsides and never even hinted that they may actually go for it. The fact that Romo was so adamant that they weren’t running a play was the cherry on top of a great sundae (play call). No one expected it and it worked to perfection!

He always has another well-executed play in his back pocket. This time it's the "line up like you're going to draw them offsides, only really run the play" to ice a Playoff game.

no idea how he gets his team to execute as perfectly as they do. He's been like that since PHI.

The Giants on the other hand, don't get set on a fake FG, end up throwing a pass by a P to a double-covered Center. Execution, and it goes beyond Mahomes

In comment 15126904 Zeke's Alibi said:

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there. They can take 3 plays over the middle but need to complete them all with no penalties. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an NFL team with no timeouts go about 90 yards for a score.

I agree - again - that it's very unlikely.

But getting 36 yards - assuming they have the ball at the 14 to start - to midfield should be very much in reach with a minute left.

One pass out into the flat to Hunt/Chubb and they are getting 10+ and out of bounds.

then its a disaster. See Giants at Eagles

Never take the ball out of your hands and leave your fate in the opponents hand.

Worst decision was Cleveland punting with 4 minutes left and 1 timeout. Why would you ever punt there especially against the Chiefs O?

Worst case you stop them they kick a FG it's still a one score game. You don't stop them it's game over anyway.

and it amazing how open Hill is. Henne had such an easy throw.

You would have thought it was 4th and 5 by the way Cleveland tried to cover it.

In comment 15126929 bw in dc said:

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and it amazing how open Hill is. Henne had such an easy throw. You would have thought it was 4th and 5 by the way Cleveland tried to cover it.

It’s actually criminal when you see they ran that play before in same situation. I’m sure Reid will have something in his pocket now to work off this play for next time out.

In comment 15126730 Grizz99 said:

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I thought that if the ball was snapped it would be for a qb sneak. Horrible call, I imagined The Giants throwing that pass to Even E.

You should clarify this statement. The pass to Evan E would be for forty yards downfield.

Tyreek Hill is the toughest short area cover in the NFL, and Chad Henne is a 12 year pro. He wasn't being asked to make an exceptional play.

You have to trust your backups. They're on the team for a reason.

I'm reminded of Parcells using Rutledge on a QB sneak on 4th and 1, or David Tyree making critical 4th quarter catches in Super Bowls. These guys are on the roster...if you can't trust them to do their jobs then you've done a bad job building the roster.

.

In comment 15126931 Zeke's Alibi said:

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In comment 15126929 bw in dc said: Quote: and it amazing how open Hill is. Henne had such an easy throw. You would have thought it was 4th and 5 by the way Cleveland tried to cover it. It’s actually criminal when you see they ran that play before in same situation. I’m sure Reid will have something in his pocket now to work off this play for next time out.

Agreed. I believe I heard yesterday that the Cleveland coaching staff said they knew about the play - from the Miami film - and were "ready" for it.

Hard to really buy that after watching how they tried to defend it.

I conclude this - Cleveland relaxed thinking the Chiefs were simply going to have Henne run out of the play-clock and punt. Once they snapped it, Cleveland just wasn't ready...

Hey, kudos to the Chiefs for having some real brass balls. And trusting Henne.

Andy Reid is special because he plays to win, not to be safe. He had a 4th and one and he has the best offense in football, even without Mahomes there is a greater chance of making the one yard than not. So many options to call a play to get that one yard.

Punting back to Cleveland gives them a chance to win. This way, now they have no chance to win.

Even if they didn’t make it, the chances of Cleveland going 50 yards to score a TD with one timeout left were less than 50%. Besides, the Cleveland offense was mediocre all game having only scored 17 points. Andy Reid I’m sure factored that in.

Bottom line....ANDY REID IS AN AWESOME COACH AND SHOWED WHY HE IS THE BEST WITH THAT CALL. They could have lost had he not made that call....having made it, they won.

In comment 15126700 fkap said:

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always a good possibility, 9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still... Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors. Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched.

Not 100% accurate way of looking at it. This does emphasize that it is still unlikely. But, not every game every week required a TD drive with little time left at the end of the game. So, it doesn't apply to a lot of games.

I agree with you that it is still not highly probable, but it is less unlikely than those numbers would suggest.

In comment 15126929 bw in dc said:

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and it amazing how open Hill is. Henne had such an easy throw. You would have thought it was 4th and 5 by the way Cleveland tried to cover it.

I think this goes back to FatMan's point. The Chiefs (Reid in particular) must have seen something from the Browns to proceed. I agree it's riskier with Henne, but I would guess this is something they practice regularly (not unusual for Reid) and felt prepared for. If he sees what they want, regardless of who is taking the snap, he runs the play as they expect it to work. He sees something unexpected or unfavorable, he takes the delay and then they punt.

that while I agree this is really risky and I'm not sure I would call it if I were the HC, I don't know I would classify it as reckless. Reid is a meticulous coach. He does try some unconventional things, but his team practices and prepares for them. This likely falls into that category.

In comment 15126700 fkap said:

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always a good possibility, 9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still... Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors. Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched.

The math is off, because you would need to eliminate the following scenarios from the equation.

1. Games that were not close enough for a team to attempt a game-winning/tying drive.

2. Games that were close enough, but the team trailing did not get a chance to attempt a game-winning/tying drive.

3. Games where a team did attempt a game-winning drive, but they had at least one timeout.

4. Games where a team did attempt a game-winning drive with no timeouts, but had the two minute warning.

Other factors to consider would be how much time remaining, field position, quality of the playmakers on offense, and quality of the playmakers on defense.

This is why coaches and players want film and study tendencies. Kansas City did not go to the line thinking, "Gosh, I hope this works." They followed the body language of the defense, studied how they typically react in this scenario, and read the coverage. They felt confident that this was going to work.

Nah.

They made it.

Cleveland shouldn't have let Chad flipping Henne run on their defense on 3rd and long.

Winners play to win. Losers play not to lose.